While RAB readers are busy predicting Bobby Abreu’s eventual home. the former Yankee is watching his options dwindle. As MLBTR reported earlier this evening, Abreu’s price seems to be too steep for Cincinnati. At this point in the off season, the Reds seemed to be emerging as Abreu’s most likely destination, but with this news, my guess is that we’ll just have to wait for the Manny Ramirez dust to settle before Abreu finds a home for less money than he had hoped.
Manny and the Yanks, revised
In a meandering column on the potential landing spots for Manny Ramirez, Bill Madden revisits the Yankees as once and former potential destination for the slugger. On page two of the column, he writes that the Yanks were “ready to go at least two years and an option for Manny” had they not signed in Mark Teixeira. As we all know, Teixeira landed in New York, and in my opinion, the Yanks were better off for it.
Caldera: Ball in Pettitte’s court
Pete Caldera checks in with an update on Andy Pettitte and notes that the lefty’s future is very much in his own hands. He writes:
Is there any room for Andy Pettitte to re-up with the Yankees? Apparently. But a person with knowledge of the situation said that it’s up to Pettitte to initiate the discussion. If so, there might be a willingness on the Yankees part to take the offer from $10.5 million to $12 million.
It’s a little curious why incentives haven’t been floated as a way to get closer to a midway point between the Yanks’ offer and Pettitte’s $16 million salary last season, but that might only happen during a negotiation — and, by all indications, there hasn’t been much of a dialogue since Mr. Cashman went to Houston last month.
This clearly throws a little bit of a twist into the debate over who rejected whom. We’ve heard both that Pettitte had rejected the Yankees and that the Yankees were the ones who pulled their initial offer after Mark Teixeira signed. Caldera’s latest lends credence to the tale that Pettitte turned down the Yanks’ $10 million offer.
Either way, that part of this saga is just water under the bridge. It seems as though the Yankees are willing to up their offer to Pettitte as long as he comes back to them. They even seem willing to pay far more than the market would dictate for Pettitte’s services as well.
Considering the state of things, I’d say that it would behoove both sides to get this deal done. I’m going to stick with my prediction of a one-year, $12-$13 million deal. That’s where these negotiations are heading.
Yanks, other teams not interested in Hudson
Much like Bobby Abreu, Orlando Hudson is finding that it’s tough out there for players on the wrong side of 30 looking for a big day. Ken Rosenthal checks in on the Hudson market and finds nothing doing:
Hudson, coming off surgery on his left wrist, has resumed all baseball-related activities. He continues to seek a contract of three or more years, executives say, but ultimately could settle for a shorter term with the right team — say, the Mets or Yankees.
Both of those clubs currently are set at second, the Mets with Luis Castillo, the Yankees with Robinson Cano. A trade of either appears unlikely, but Hudson could land with another team — most likely, the Nationals — if his market in New York fails to develop.
Trading Cano and signing Hudson would work for the Yankees financially — Cano is owed $25 million over the next three seasons, and the Yankees could pay Hudson a similar figure. But the Yankees, confident that Cano will rebound from an off year, only would trade him if they received a significant return.
I’ve never been keen on the Yanks’ getting Hudson, and I’m not quite sure why so many people were willing to write off Cano’s season. In a sense, Cano’s bad season was due to luck more than anything else. His line drive and BABIP numbers suggest that he should have had a better season, and I’d much rather take the 26-year-old over Hudson.
Of course, again, if the right trade came up that happened to involve Cano, I would hope that Brian Cashman think long and hard about it, knowing that Orlando Hudson is out there. Hudson’s availability, however, does not mean the Yanks should shop Cano, and if they head into the season with Robbie at second, the Yanks should be a-OK.
Kepner, Cash talk Yankees
Tyler Kepner sat down with some Q.T. with Brian Cashman earlier this week, and the results are in today’s Times. The Yanks’ GM talked about his outfield situation, the Hot Stove League and his recovering All Stars.
On trading Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher:
“It depends on the trade talk,” Cashman said. “If we feel there’s a benefit, we’ll make a move. That’s basically it. We’re in a position where we don’t have to make a move, so that’s a strong position to be in. We could have them all year. We’re not going to do anything unless there’s a reason to do it.”
On Jorge Posada’s and Mariano Rivera’s respective rehab efforts:
“Our catcher and closer are coming off shoulder surgeries,” Cashman said. “That’s what concerns me, and that’s what people should be focused on. Everything is coming along fine, but nobody usually has hiccups this early. Posada’s just throwing at 90 feet on flat ground and Mo’s not even throwing yet.”
Posada will not be able to catch by the exhibition opener Feb. 25, Cashman said, but he is on track to be ready for the regular-season opener April 6. Rivera does not throw in January even when he is healthy, so his schedule is not alarming. But it is Cashman’s job to fret.
“Mo’s surgery wasn’t as serious as Posada’s,” Cashman said. “But it’s still shoulder surgery.”
Meanwhile — and somewhat related — comes the news via a Ken Rosenthal column that the Yankees are not really interested in Ben Sheets or Freddy Garcia. Considering how Cashman would like to find a starter, those two players are no sure thing. As Kepner hints at and as Rosenthal basically states, the Yankees are looking to fill the innings with someone who will deliver innings and not someone with the potential to be a top-flight starter as Sheets would be but has a questionable MRI dogging him.
Everyone in baseball seems to be in a holding part. Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez rumors have gone dark (although Bryan Hoch says Manny won’t be a Yankee). When the dust settles, however, and pitchers and catchers report in 26 days, the Yanks may head to camp with a few roster tweaks yet.
Melky’s arbitration case
Earlier this week, Melky Cabrera with 2.148 years of playing time, joined 110 others in filing for salary arbitration. As a super-two, Melky could experience the trials and travails of salary arbitration.
In discussing the Melky situation earlier this week, Pete Abraham posted a question: “It’s easy to see how Nady and the Yankees could have something to talk about. Maybe even Bruney. But what could the possible holdup be with Melky? He should be happy to get a free appetizer at the new Hard Rock Cafe after how he played last season.”
It is an interesting question. Mostly, these salary arbitration cases are settled well in advance of a hearing. It’s certainly better for the two teams to settle on a figure before the Yanks go in and explain why Melky doesn’t deserve any money (not a tough arugment) and Melky explains why he deserves what would really be an inexplicable raise.
Since we haven’t had a chance to dump on Melky dig into the erstwhile Yankee center fielder in a while, I thought about running a post on the arguments Melky could make. The only attribute of his that would ever warrant a raise is his arm. He managed seven assists last year and has 28 over his career. Otherwise, he put up a 68 OPS+ with a .249/.301/.341 line, most it coming in April. (He hit .235/.280/.286 over his final 98 games.)
Historically, Melky doesn’t stack up too well either. I ran his qualifications — age 23 season, 453 plate appearances, 68 OPS+ — through Baseball Reference’s Play Index, and his fellow underachievers do not make for a very promising list. In baseball history, only 24 players suffering through their age 23 seasons of the game have done as bad or worse than Melky did in 2008. None of those have really gone on to do much of anything.
I don’t like to see Melky be so bad. I’d much rather see Melky mature into a top-notch center fielder or at least an average one. I don’t, however, see what Melky has to gain by the arbitration process. Oh, to be a fly on the wall during that hearing.
The undeniable case against Jon Garland
Since the off-season began, I’ve heard Yanks fans mention Jon Garland as a possible solution in the rotation. Those comments have heated up a bit over the past few weeks as it has become increasingly unlikely that the team signs Andy Pettitte to fill the fifth starter void. The argument usually goes something like: “He’s a guy who can eat innings and give you league average pitching.” If we were sure this is what Garland would bring, I could see signing him. Unfortunately, the way his stats have trended make it look unlikely.
Garland made a name for himself in 2005, posting a 3.50 ERA in 221 innings, en route to a World Series title with the White Sox. However, since that season he’s not been nearly as good. Not even close. In fact, even that season his FIP was 4.24, which is not bad, but shows that his results might have been part of the randomness that baseball players experience from year to year. For more on randomness, read books by this guy. His 75.4 LOB% might have something to do with that low ERA as well.
Let’s take a look at Garland’s peripherals. We’ll start at the basics, with his strikeouts and walks.
Year | K/9 | BB/9 |
---|---|---|
2005 | 4.68 | 1.91 |
2006 | 4.77 | 1.75 |
2007 | 4.23 | 2.46 |
2008 | 4.12 | 2.70 |
In 2008 he walked nearly one more batter per nine innings than he did two years prior. If that was a one-year jump, it wouldn’t scare me as much. Yet his 2007 figure, 2.46, sets off a red flag. Combine this with his incrementally declining K rate, and you have one messy situation.
Moving down to his other peripherals, it paints a strange picture. His line drive rate has been pretty consistent throughout his career, right in the 22 percent range, but he saw an enormous spike in groundballs last year — 49.9 percent, which was over 10 percent higher than his 2007 campaign. This means he was giving up fewer fly balls, generally a good thing, but not when your HR/FB ratio jumps up by nearly five percent (7.1 percent in 07, 11.9 percent in 08).
No, Jon Garland probably wouldn’t be a poor choice to fill the fifth starter role. A 4.50 ERA/FIP, which is what the three projection systems (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel) have him at in 2009, is fine from the five hole, especially if it’s over 200 innings. However, the price will not match the output, and that gap becomes wider if Garland continues his downward trend. Unless he’s available for one year and around $5 million, the Yanks would do best to pass on him.
(Plus, as tommiesmithjohncarlos says: “Jon Garland is the exact opposite of Katie Holmes topless.”)
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