As I expected, the Yanks’ decision to decline arbitration has fired up the Manny-to-the-Bronx rumors with Jon Heyman leading the charge. I’ll have more on this tomorrow — law-school work permitting — when I get around to delving into the Abreu decision, but I’m not at all surprised to see Heyman’s pursuing this line of reasoning right now.
Angels getting in on the CC show
Via MLB Trade Rumors we learn that the Angels are having discussions with CC Sabathia. While the timing comes somewhat of a surprise — the Angels still haven’t made an offer to Mark Teixeira — it was assumed from the start that the Halos would get involved. LA Times scribe Bill Shaikin notes that the Angels are reluctant to offer Tex the 10 years he seeks. Of course, Scott Boras will neither confirm nor deny the first baseman’s intentions.
No offer has been officially extended, however it is believed that the Angels could offer something “in the range of Johan Santana’s six-year, $137.5-million contract.” Clearly, the term “in the range” could mean a number of things. Will they offer a little less? A little more? Will they match the Yankees reported six-year, $140 million offer? Or did they just leak this story to show Teixeira that they’re serious?
(You have 24 hours to sign our contract. And to show you we’re serious…you have 12 hours.)
We know that Sabathia could opt for the West Coast, even if the Yankees offer the largest contract. That scenario becomes more likely if the Angels offer him a deal better than Santana’s, even if it’s not by much. The Yanks would surely up their bid under that scenario, but how much, if anything, would be enough?
Missing out on CC could mean a number of changes to the off-season plan. The focus could shift to Teixeira. If signed, Nick Swisher would move to the outfield. Do you dish Damon or Nady at that point? Do you go into the season with an OF of Nady-Damon-Swisher and hope for the best defensively?
There aren’t any easy answers to these questions. Yet the Yankees may be faced with them in the coming weeks. I do not envy Brian Cashman right now.
Five years, $80 million for Burnett? Say it ain’t so
If there’s one site you can’t miss during the off-season, it’s MLB Trade Rumors (though I’m sure you all know that). Tim works his ass off to create a place where you can find on what’s going on with the Hot Stove. This morning when I checked the site, I saw the top item on his Yankees Rumors post: The Yankees are preparing “perhaps” a five-year, $80 million deal for A.J. Burnett. Thankfully I hadn’t eaten yet, else I would have wretched all over my keyboard.
Unlike some on this site, I’m not unequivocally opposed to signing Burnett. The guy has some lightning stuff, and if healthy could provide a solid boost to the rotation, at least in the first couple years of the deal. However, we’re talking five years here, and a massive amount of money. If this rumor is true, I have little doubt Burnett will find a better offer, meaning we’d be stuck with him for half a decade.
Thankfully, this rumor comes to us from He Who Shall Not Be Named, so we can take it with a grain of salt. In fact, his use of the word “perhaps” preceding the contract figure suggests that, like many of his other rumors, he is just making this up. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all. So “perhaps” we can rest assured that the Yankees aren’t going to make an offer of this magnitude.
At least Jon Heyman admits he’s guessing when he predicts a five-year, $75 million offer for Burnett. This doesn’t make the rumor more legit, really, as it’s just a guess. Still, we now have two guys close to the Yanks saying they’re going to offer A.J. Burnett a five-year deal. This is not good.
First, this, if anything, is overbidding. The Blue Jays offered four years at $54 million. A.J. is not CC. You don’t have to blow him out of the water. So why go an extra year at freaking $26 million more than the Jays? That seems a bit absurd at this point in the off-season for a pitcher of Burnett’s caliber.
Speaking of his skills, let’s talk about the risk of offering the dude a five-year deal. We know he has electric stuff, but he’s gone over 200 innings just three times in his career. One was six years ago. One was his contract year. The other was, well, another contract year. Granted, he’s pitched fairly well in almost every season, save for his 23 innings in 2003 — which, incidentally, was on the heels of his first 200-inning season. He then pitched 120 in 2004 before pitching 209 in 2005, only to drop back off to 135 in 2006.
The Yankees need guys who will eat innings. Joba won’t be able to pitch a full season. Nor will Hughes. As it stands right now, they have one pitcher who can give them over 200 inning, and he’s coming off a foot injury. With so many question marks in the rotation, why add another one with Burnett? If the Yankees offer is true, I can’t see any team topping it. And that would mean we’re stuck with him.
Yanks chances on Peavy increase? Sabathia to the Angels?
The New York writers have kept themselves busy over this past week, running the floor to bring us rumor after rumor from the GM meetings. While we know that the bulk of these rumors mean little or nothing, we still like to toss them around and drop our two cents. Today, we get some peeps about the Yankees pitching targets, namely Jake Peavy and CC Sabathia.
We’ll start with Peavy. Mark Feinsand has a tidbit on the Padres righty:
The Yankees could put together a package built around Phil Hughes and Austin Jackson, according to a source, although they would likely have to include two or three more players, one of which could be Ian Kennedy. The Padres, according to the source, have no interest in Robinson Cano.
As always, beware the anonymous source. Yes, the Yankees could do that, but there’s only a small chance they will. It would mean talks have been exhausted with all NL teams, and even then the Yankees would likely have to add dollars and/or years to Peavy’s contract. He’s not going to waive his no trade clause for nothing, as he’s made clear through his agent Barry Axelrod.
The tireless Ken Davidoff says this won’t happen. Then again, he also said that the chances of Moose coming back is one percent, so we should get a chance soon to gauge his predictive accuracy. He also puts the kibosh on the Matsui to Seattle rumor, which sounded pretty frivolous from the outset. Now, if he could only kill those Lowe rumors.
Not everything is sunshiny for the Yanks, though. Davidoff brings up a scenario under which the Angels could snatch up CC Sabathia, even if the Yankees are the high bidders. It would start with the Angels letting Mark Teixeira walk. While that’s not a highly likely scenario, word is from Terry Reagins’s lips that the team won’t wait around forever awaiting his decision.
So how could the Angels then get CC without being the high bidder? If they top the $137.5 million, six-year contract signed by Johan Santana last winter, Sabathia could be content. We’ve talked about the pressure from the union to take top dollar, but the pressure might not be as intense if CC raises the bar for pitcher salaries. The union might raise a stink if CC wants to take a six year, $120 million offer from the Angels when a six year, $140 million deal is on the table from the Yankees. But if the Yankees are offering $150 million and the Angels are offering $140, he might take the slightly lower, yet still record-breaking, salary to play on the West Coast.
All of this is to say that we have no freaking clue how this off-season is going to pan out. Plenty of people say they are “convinced” CC will be a Yank. Others (::cough:: Mike Pop) think Burnett in pinstripes is inevitable. However, there is no sure thing during the Hot Stove.
Late-nite rumors
Via MLBTR comes a rumor about Hideki from Yahoo’s Tim Brown:
One source mentioned a potential three-way deal that would send outfielder Hideki Matsui from the New York Yankees to the Seattle Mariners for a pitching prospect, perhaps Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Yankees would package the prospect with second baseman Robinson Cano and another young player to the Rockies for Matt Holliday.
The Mariners wouldn’t trade Ryan Rowland-Smith for Matsui. The Yankees aren’t going to try to acquire Holliday unless they miss out on Teixeira. Have fun with this one, but don’t take it seriously at all. By the way, that other young player in the Rockies’ half of the day would probably be Phil Hughes.
Kennedy for Taveras? Say it ain’t so
I know a vocal contingency of Yankees fans don’t like Ian Kennedy. It’s easy to be down on the guy right now. He had a terrible year in the majors, and appalled fans with his post-game cockiness. Yet, this winter probably isn’t the best time to shop Kennedy. His value isn’t what it was last season, and what the Yankees could get in return likely won’t equal the production Kennedy can potentially give the Yankees rotation. Case in point, a nugget in the Denver Post, which says that Willy Taveras for Ian Kennedy is “not a longshot.”
Seriously, even the biggest Kennedy detractor can’t want this swap. Willy Taveras is clown shoes. He hit .251/.308/.296 this year. In other words, he’s Melky Cabrera with less power. That might have been the most absurd sentence I have ever written on RAB. He made $1.975 million last year, so he’s not only Melky with less power, he’s Melky with less power and more expensive.
There is no upside to bringing on Taveras. We already have two players who can top his production, and no one is sold on those guys. They’re both younger than Taveras, too. If you’re going to trade Kennedy for garbage, at least make it garbage that we don’t already have.
Robinson Cano, don’t you go
I am an unabashed Robinson Cano fan. I’ve always enjoyed watching him play the game. I love the enthusiasm and energy he brings to the team, and when he’s on, he’s as good a pure hitter as just about anyone in the game. I think he could be the second baseman on the Yanks for the next decade.
The Yankees may have other ideas in mind. According to Jon Heyman, the Yanks are open to moving Cano:
There’s more talk lately that the Yankees may consider trading Robinson Cano. The main reason apparently isn’t that he recently earned a benching for failing to hustle, but more because he has tremendous trade value despite his off-year and the Yankees have multiple needs. The Dodgers, managed by Cano’s first manager, Joe Torre, are said to be interested. The New York Post mentioned that possibility last offseason, well before Cano’s terrible year.
If the Yanks move Cano, Heyman speculates, they could go after Orlando Hudson. The current Diamondback will be a free agent this winter and will be turning 31 in December.
Now, off the bat, I won’t hold it against the Yanks if they opt to shop Cano. It never hurts to ask other teams what they would give up for some of the blue chippers in the system. But I’d be very hesitant to pull the trigger on a deal. This season, aside, Robinson Cano is an anchor around which the Yanks could construct a team, and the Yanks better make sure they get something really good in return.
But there’s another aspect of this move to consider as well. The man who would replace Cano will have a tough job. True, Robinson Cano in 2008 is very replaceable, but if he regains his 2005-2007 form — and there’s no reason to think he won’t — Orlando Hudson can’t come close to Cano.
Despite Sidney Ponson’s and Darrell Rasner’s presences on this team, the Yankees’ biggest problem this year isn’t pitching; it’s their offense. Plus, they can easily fill their pitching holes via free agency this year. Whatever Cano gets them has to address either their first base situation, their outfield situation or, potentially, their catching situation. But then they’d have to find someone who can fill second base and replace the offense Cano could provide. I just don’t think it’s worth it to fill a hole by creating another at the Big League level. I have nothing against trading the kids in the right deal, but the offer would have to blow me away if I were to move Cano.
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