River Avenue Blues

ALCS Game Three Thread: Yankees @ Tigers

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This situation right now is pretty much the closest the Yankees will ever get to being the underdog. They’re down two games to none in the best-of-seven ALCS, they haven’t hit a lick in the postseason, and the best pitcher on the planet will be on the mound for the Tigers tonight. It’s a truly dire situation for Joe Girardi’s club.

That’s why a win tonight would be huge. The Yankees will have stolen a game from Justin Verlander and injected a little life into what has been a very one-sided series. I don’t know about the players, but I think the emotional pick-me-up for fans would be pretty enormous. It’s easy to be (very) down on the club right now, but going into Comerica Park and stealing a game from Verlander would be a great way to get back into the series and remind everyone who finished the season with the best record in the league. Here are the lineups…

New York Yankees
LF Brett Gardner
RF Ichiro Suzuki
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Robinson Cano
DH Raul Ibanez
C  Russell Martin
3B Eric Chavez
CF Curtis Granderson
SS Eduardo Nunez

RHP Phil Hughes (16-13, 4.23)

Detroit Tigers
CF Austin Jackson
LF Quintin Berry
3B Miguel Cabrera
1B Prince Fielder
DH Delmon Young
RF Andy Dirks
SS Jhonny Peralta
C  Alex Avila
2B Omar Infante

RHP Justin Verlander (17-8, 2.64)

It’s chilly in Detroit but that’s all. Classic playoff weather. Tonight’s game is scheduled to start a little after 8pm ET and can be seen on TBS. Enjoy.

Ticket Update: If you want to catch any game in this series, either in New York or Detroit, make sure you check out RAB Tickets for some sweet last minute deals.

Nine years ago today…

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We all need some positive vibes this afternoon, so let’s take a quick look back at something that happened nine years ago today. I’m talking about this…

And this…

And finally this…

Aaron Boone had three hits in his previous 27 at-bats prior to that. All it takes is one swing.

Winning at all (bullpen) costs

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(Patrick McDermott/Getty)

I’m going to start by repeating something I said this morning, but it’s worth it: the season is not on the line in Game Three tonight but it might as well be. Coming back from a three games to none deficit in a best-of-seven series is not unprecedented, but it is incredibly difficult. For all intents and purposes, a loss tonight would be a one-way ticket to the offseason. That’s the situation the Yankees have played (really hit, I have a hard time blaming the pitchers for anything) themselves into.

Because of this, Joe Girardi has to manage tonight like it is a Game Seven, particularly with his bullpen in relief of Phil Hughes. There’s little reason to hold anyone back for tomorrow or later in the series. This isn’t the regular season anymore, there’s no point in worrying about keeping guys fresh in the long-term when the offseason could be two days away. Girardi typically does a great job of keeping his bullpen rested during the summer, but all of that should go out the window now.

Thankfully, the core late-game relievers are well-rested. Not only did Monday’s travel day give everyone a day off, but David Robertson and Rafael Soriano also had Sunday’s game off as well. They didn’t even warm up. Furthermore, CC Sabathia is scheduled to start Game Four on normal rest tomorrow night, and he’s one of the very few pitchers who can be counted on to go out and soak up seven or more innings without thinking twice. Sabathia should make everyone, including Girardi, feel a little bit better about using the bullpen heavily tonight.

If push comes to shove in Game Three in a few hours, multiple innings from both Robertson and Soriano should be on the table. Soaking up nine total outs in a close game seems like a given, maybe even more if things get really messy. Both guys are rested, Sabathia is going tomorrow, and the game is of paramount importance. This is when a team needs to rely on its top bullpen arms and the Yankees are lucky enough to have two dynamite right-handers capable of getting both lefties and righties out. They’re a luxury who will be a necessity tonight.

Yankees seeking new ownership for the YES Network

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Via Richard Sandomir: The Yankees are looking for investors to buy out their YES Network ownership partners. The team is not selling its stake — Yankee Global Enterprises owns about one-third of the network — but is looking for purchasers to buy stakes currently held by Goldman Sachs, Providence Equity, and others.

“We want to keep our options open and see what the marketplace is … It’s important to find out what the price would be out in the marketplace and if there is someone comfortable with paying it,” said team president Randy Levine, who recently met with FOX executives along with Hal Steinbrenner and Goldman Sachs partner Gerald Cardinale. Investors like Goldman usually flip their stakes in companies after a few years, but they’ve stuck with YES because the network is a money-making machine. The Yankees went through a similar process back in 2007.

ALCS Pitching Preview: Justin Verlander

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Up two games to none in a best-of-seven series with the best pitcher on the planet scheduled to start Game Three is one hell of an enviable position. Unfortunately the Yankees are on the other side of that coin, down two-zip in the ALCS and slated to face Justin Verlander in his home ballpark tonight. That ain’t pretty.

Verlander, 29, put together another brilliant regular season — 2.64 ERA and 2.94 FIP in 238.1 innings — and seems to have gotten the postseason monkey off his back with a dominant ALDS showing. He came into 2012 with a 5.57 ERA in eight starts and 42 playoff innings but held the Athletics to one run in 16 total innings last week. Verlander was the worst possible matchup for the free swinging and strikeout heavy A’s, a description that unfortunately fits the Yankees’ offense at the moment as well.

2012 Performance vs. Yankees

Date Tm Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit
Apr 27 DET @ NYY L,6-7 6.0 7 5 4 0 4 2 0 2.41 26 102
Jun 3 DET NYY L,1-5 L(5-4) 6.1 9 5 3 4 4 2 0 2.67 30 114
Aug 6 DET NYY W,7-2 W(12-7) 8.0 9 2 0 1 14 0 0 2.51 35 132
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/15/2012.

The Yankees saw Verlander in all three series against Detroit in the regular season, beating him twice before that career-high strikeout total-tying performance in August. That game broken a stretch of six consecutive starts (playoffs included) against New York in which the right-hander allowed at least one first inning run.

The Yankees have actually hit Verlander harder than any other AL team in his career, a span of 13 starts and 345 batters faced. The problem is that his career started in 2005 and most of that information is irrelevant. The Yankees managed to hang five runs on him twice this year, but that still isn’t encouraging. Even if the offense was clicking on all cylinders at the moment, beating Verlander would still be a tall order. Now that they’re mired in a team-wide mega-slump, it seems like generating offense off him with take a miracle.

Pitch Selection (via Brooks Baseball)

There is no mystery here. Verlander gets ahead with his mid-to-high-90s fastball (he famously adds velocity in the later innings) and puts hitters away with his knee-buckling upper-70/low-80s curveball. He’ll also throw a mid-80s slider to righties that breaks more down-and-away (like Joba Chamberlain’s) than side-to-side. Verlander’s mid-80s changeup has morphed in a knockout pitch against lefties because he throws it with the same arm speed as his fastball. Felix Hernandez might have something to say about it, but there’s a very strong case to be made that the Detroit right-hander has the best pure stuff in the business. Two top of the line pitches in the fastball and curveball plus two other above-average offerings in the slider and changeup. Just filthy.

Performance & Results

TBF wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% HR/FB%
vs. RHB 420 0.265 3.06 23.6% 6.0% 44.1% 35.7% 20.3% 7.8%
vs. LHB 536 0.266 2.86 26.1% 6.5% 40.8% 35.5% 23.7% 8.7%

Well, I hope you weren’t looking for a platoon split because Verlander dominates everyone. Maybe right-handed batters have a slightly better chance against him because he strikes out a touch fewer, but … nah. The guy is a machine and any team that faces him should run their very best lineup out there and forget all about platoon splits. The problem is that the Yankees don’t have a very best lineup right now, at least nothing outside of Mark Teixeira and Raul Ibanez in the middle of the order. The only thing I have to add here is that Verlander will let you steal a base, so anyone who reaches base tonight should be thinking about a stolen base as soon as possible.

Phil Hughes and stealing Game Three

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(Alex Trautwig/Getty)

The season is not on the line tonight, but it might as well be. The Yankees are down two games to none in the best-of-seven ALCS, so a loss in Game Three tonight might as well be the final nail in the coffin. Yeah, a comeback is always possible, the Yankees and their fans know that first hand, but it would extremely unlikely. A baseball miracle if there ever was one.

The Yankees opted not to bring CC Sabathia back on short rest for the start tonight, meaning Phil Hughes will get the ball against Justin Verlander. It’s a matchup so lopsided that you hope the theory of “reverse lock” comes into play, and in fact the Yankees did win a Hughes-Verlander meeting in Comerica Park earlier this season. That was Phil’s complete game in early-June, his best start of the season. Unfortunately that doesn’t mean anything now as much as I wish it did.

“I don’t really feel like I can feel any added pressure just because of the circumstances,” said Hughes yesterday. “I just have to go out there and pitch, that’s all it boils down to, not really worry about being down 0-2; that Verlander is on the mound; that we don’t have our captain. Those sort of things are going to be wasted energy, and all I really want to focus on is the Detroit Tigers lineup and doing the absolute best job I can do … Obviously we don’t want to go into the series over there down 0-2, but there’s nothing we can do about that now. I just have to go into Detroit, put together a good start and trust our guys are going to score some runs. I do enjoy that pressure and the opportunity, and I’m looking forward to it.”

Hughes turned in a rock solid start against the Orioles in the ALDS last week, allowing just one run while striking out eight in 6.2 innings. He was on nearly two weeks rest though, which may have put some life back into this right arm after throwing 191.1 innings in the regular season. If he turns in another performance like that against the Tigers tonight, the Yankees might lose. Their offense has been struggling that much and Verlander is that good. Hughes is really going to have to come up huge in what amounts to the second biggest start of his career behind Game Six of the 2010 ALCS.

One way or another, the Yankees have to win four of their next five games to advance to the World Series, and at least one of those four wins will have to come in a game started by Verlander. There’s no way around it. If they want to have a realistic chance at making this a competitive series, Hughes has to steal tonight’s game against Verlander and hand the ball off to Sabathia with a chance to tie things up tomorrow. The odds are against it and everyone is (really) down on the club right now, but stealing Game Three behind Phil would be a major lift going forward. Some much-needed faith would be restored.

Betances rebounds in latest AzFL appearance

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Got a lot of game action to catch up on, but first let’s start out with some notes…

  • Keith Law had a lot of praise for OF Slade Heathcott in his most recent chat after seeing him in the Arizona Fall League, saying “I do think he has star potential if he stays healthy, which is a huge if. He plays like his hair’s on fire (and) that’s not a great thing for a player who’s injury-prone … the star potential is from the athleticism – plus runner, really good swing, strong hands. Just needs to dial it down one notch.”
  • In a separate piece, KLaw said RHP Zach Nuding was “91-95 with a fringy slider” and “iffy command.” RHP Mark Montgomery “threw 90-93 with a short, hard slider that he’d even throw down and in to right-handed batters; there’s some effort in that delivery, but the ball appears pretty late out of his hand.”
  • RHP Dellin Betances told Jonathan Raymond that he started “throwing a slider” in Instructional League a few weeks ago. I thought he tinkered with the pitch a few years ago, but I could easily be wrong. So many guys (supposedly) learn new pitches each year, it’s hard to keep track. Anyway, Betances really doesn’t need another pitch, the fastball/curveball/changeup combo is plenty good enough, he just needs to throw strikes.
  • LHP Omar Luis Rodriguez was not in Instructional League due to visa issues according to Ben Badler. The Yankees signed the 18-year-old Cuba southpaw for $4M back in June, their final huge money signing before the new spending restrictions were implemented.

AzFL Scottsdale (6-5 win over Phoenix in 11 innings, walk-off style) Wednesday’s game
CF Slade Heathcott: 2-5, 1 RBI, 1 K, 1 SB, 1 E (fielding) — he beat out an infield single on a ground ball to the first baseman (!) with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, allowing the game-tying run to score … he also got thrown out at the plate after colliding with the catcher
RHP Zach Nuding: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 25 of 45 pitches were strikes (56%)
RHP Danny Burawa: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 2/0 GB/FB — only seven of 17 pitches were strikes (41%), and he was sitting 92-94 with the fastball … first outing of 2012 after missing the entire season with an oblique and rib injury … KLaw said
RHP Mark Montgomery: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2/0 GB/FB — 15 of 25 pitches were strikes (60%)

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