Sanchez dominant before bullpen nearly blows it for SWB

Jeremy Bleich was put on the disabled list with shoulder stiffness. He’s apparently back in Florida, so hopefully this well correct whatever’s causing that 26-28 K/BB ratio in 41.1 IP.

Triple-A Scranton (7-5 win over Indianapolis)
Kevin Russo, LF & Reegie Corona, 2B: both 1 for 4, 1 K – Russo was hit by a pitch, doubled & scored a run … Corona walked & drove a run in
Eduardo Nunez, SS: 2 for 5, 1 RBI, 1 SB – he was robbed of a homer when the LF made a leaping catch at the wall
David Winfree, RF: 1 for 5, 1 R
Jon Weber, DH: 2 for 5, 1 R, 1 K – 9 for his last 26 (.346) to get his AVG up to .244
Jesus Montero, C: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 BB – the double was off the very top of the CF wall, it actually looked out watching on TV … he also hit a ball right on the screws in his final at-bat, but Pedro Alvarez made a nice leaping catch at the hot corner … also threw out two would be basestealers, one of whom we know well
Chad Huffman, 1B: 3 for 3, 2 R, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB – 12 for his last 31 (.387)
Reid Gorecki, CF: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 RBI
Matt Cusick, 3B: 0 for 4
Romulo Sanchez: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 6 BB, 7 K, 3-4 GB/FB – just 54 of his 105 pitches were strikes (51.4%) … effectively wild
Grant Duff: 1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB – threw 20 pitches, 15 for strikes
Zack Segovia: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB – 15 of his 23 pitches were strikes (65.2%)
Jon Albaladejo: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 2-0 GB/FB – 14 of his 22 pitches were strikes (63.6%)

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Game 40: Big night for A.J.

Photo credit: Elise Amendola/AP

The bullpen has faltered. The lineup, while it has scored plenty of runs in the past two games, isn’t at its strongest. This is a game where A.J. Burnett needs to step up and turn in a performance that will 1) allow the Yanks to skirt by with four or fewer runs, and 2) give the bullpen a night off. A complete game might be asking a bit much — Burnett hasn’t pitched one since August 17th of last year, and hasn’t pitched a nine-inning one since May 16, 2007. Pitching into the eighth, however, will suffice.

It won’t be an easy task. While Burnett pitched well against the Rays earlier this year, they’re still an incredibly tough team. Their 5.31 runs per game ranks second in the A.L. this season. First, of course, is the Yankees, at 5.77 runs per game. The Rays hitters, however, haven’t fared all that well against Burnett. Only Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and B.J. Upton hold career OBPs of over .300 against him. Then again, we’re talking pretty small samples here. Burnett’s performance will depend far more on his two-seamer and curveball than how well the Rays hit him historically.

The Rays not only rank second in run scoring, but also first in run prevention. They have allowed just 2.97 runs per game this season, almost a run per game less than the second-ranked team. That second-ranked team? None other than your own New York Yankees. Wade Davis has been the least effective run preventer in the Rays rotation, but even he has a 3.38 ERA. As I mentioned this afternoon, Davis is pitching well above his peripherals. Tonight would be a great one for a statistical correction.

Posada and Swisher are still out of the lineup. Last night Swisher said one more day, and, via Chad Jennings, he said the same today. His injury still doesn’t sound bad — he already had an MRI on it — so let’s just hope he’s back before we have to endure any more of Marcus Thames in the field. Jorge Posada‘s foot is still hurting, and he’s undergone some tests. Girardi said he’d be the emergency catcher, but man, I can’t imagine having to squat on a bum toe. I expect he’ll come back as a DH before catching his next game.

Lineup:

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Brett Gardner, CF
3. Mark Teixeira, DH
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Robinson Cano, 2B
6. Francisco Cervelli, C
7. Marcus Thames, RF as best he can
8. Juan MIranda, 1B
9. Randy Winn, LF

And on the mound, number thirty-four, A.J. Burnett, number thirty-four.

Yankees interested in Yunesky Maya

Via MLBTR, the Yankees have interest in 28-year-old* Cuban defector Yunesky Maya, who is now free to sign with any team. Farm director Mark Newman will be on hand to watch the righthander work out in the Dominican Republic this Friday. Maya reportedly offers a fastball that touches 94, plus a slider, curveball, changeup, and sinking fastball. At least two independent sources confirmed that scouting report, which is better than nothing. He’s listed at 5-foot-11, 170 lbs. on the World Baseball Classic site, so he’s a tiny fella.

The Yankees will potentially have two openings in their rotation next year, but you’d think that they’d prefer a little more certainty in those spots. These Cuban guys tend to be hit or miss. I suspect another team will give him a clearer shot at a starting job, so the Yanks might have to overpay if they want to land him.

* you never really know with these Cuban players

Staying above water against the Rays

Photo credit: Mike Carlson/AP

The Yanks and Rays have played just one series so far, but in it the Yankees took the lead in the season series 2-1. That might not sound important, knowing that they’ll play 15 more times before the end of the season. Yet any advantage is at least somewhat important in the 2010 AL East. The Yanks and Rays appear to be the best teams in baseball right now, so head-to-head matchups mean even more. Neither team can do anything about what the other does for the other 144 games of the year, but they can make a difference during those 18 included in the unbalanced schedule.

Thankfully, the Yankees have played the Rays well in the past few years. Last year, even though the Rays underperformed to an extent and essentially fell out of the division race in August, the Yankees went 11-7 against them, despite losing two out of three in a meaningless series to close the season. Even in 2008, when the Rays won the AL East with 97 wins and the Yanks missed the playoffs, the Yanks won 11 of their 18 match-ups. Going back further than that gets into Tampa Bay’s cellar dwelling days, though, strangely, the Yanks had a losing record against them in 2005.

The Yanks’ current 2-1 edge over the Rays means that they’ll continue leading the season series even if they split the next two games. That record will hold for a bit, as they don’t meet again until July 16th. The biggest battles will likely have to wait until September, when the Yankees travel to St. Petersburg for three games from the 13th through the 15th, and then the Rays come to the Stadium for four starting on the 20th. Those could be the final stand for either team’s claim to the AL East title. For now, the Yanks will just try to stay above water.

Thankfully, they open the series with a pitching advantage. Other than his meltdown at Fenway, A.J. Burnett has been fantastic this season. Even when he doesn’t have everything working, as he didn’t Friday evening against the Twins, he’s still able to scrape together quality starts. In only two starts, both against the Sox, has he failed to pitch into the seventh inning, which has been a boon to the bullpen. Last time around Burnett pitched seven innings and held the Rays to two runs.

The Yankees hit Wade Davis well in his season debut, turning 11 baserunners into four runs in six innings. Since then Davis has been a bit better, and now has his ERA down to 3.38. His peripherals, however, do not match up. His FIP sits at 4.94 and his xFIP is 4.96, so it appears that he’s gotten a bit lucky. That’s easy to verify with a look at his strikeout rate, 6.08 per nine, against his walk rate, 4.73 per nine. Davis has walked as few as two batters twice, but both times that came against Oakland, not the most patient team in the league. Unsurprisingly, he walked four batters, his season highs, against the Yankees and Red Sox.

Where the Yanks might find a real advantage is tomorrow night. While facing James Shields is never an easy task, this is more about the Rays offense than their pitching. Against left-handers this year the Rays have hit .229/.309/.360, while against righties they’re .266/.342/.424. Andy Pettitte, tomorrow night’s scheduled starter, missed the series against the Rays the first time, though CC Sabathia had his way with them. While Shields could hold the Yankees’ offense in check, Pettitte could match him pitch-for-pitch.

When two teams as good as the Yanks and the Rays meet, it’s tough to set expectations. As the last three games have reminded us, anything can happen when two good teams battle for nine innings. All the Yanks have to do, though, is win one of these. That will keep them above water against an important division foe until the next time the two meet.

Bleacher tickets for tonight

I have a friend with two bleacher seats for tonight. They’re in Section 202 (right field), row 17. At face they’re $12, and the email fee is $3 per ticket, for a total of $15. Email me if you want ’em.

Update: Taken.

Randy Winn and a lesson in outfield positioning

When the Yankees lose, we tend to look everywhere for someone or something to blame. Among the many perceived goats for last night’s game is Randy Winn, not just for his game ending strikeout, but because of his positioning on Jeremy Hermida’s go-ahead double in the top of the ninth. Winn was playing shallow (so was centerfielder Brett Gardner, but we like him), only to have the ball go over his head for a double. MJ Recanati went so far as to say Johnny Damon would have caught that ball, wondering if the 13-year big league vet had ever heard of no doubles defense.

I’ll give MJ a pass on that because I’m sure when he wrote that after the game he was just as livid as I was, but no doubles defense is the wrong call in that spot. Before we touch the philosophical side of outfield positioning, let’s first look at the facts. Below is Mariano Rivera‘s spray chart from 2009, courtesy of Katron.org

For further reference, here’s his 2008 spray chart as well. 2010 is a tiny sample, it does nothing for us.

Clearly, Rivera does not allow many balls to be hit to deep left field, just five total from ’08-’09. It’s the nature of the cutter. If a righty is going to hit it, he’s got to slap it the other way. If a lefty wants to hit it, he’s got to pull his hands in and muscle it out of the infield, hence all the bloops hits and shallow singles Mo gives up. Only three balls during the 2009 season were hit like the ball Hermida hit off Rivera last night, and you’re talking about 247 batters faced (130 lefties).

Furthermore, even if Mo wasn’t on the mound, just think about the situation. There were two outs in the inning, so the runners on second and third (Marco Scutaro and Darnell McDonald, respectively) were going on contact. They were going both going to score on a single, nevermind a double. You bring the outfielders in to play the percentages, cutting off the most likely event. With Mo and his amazing ability to induce weak contact on the mound, it makes even more sense to do that.

Sometimes though, you just gotta tip your cap and credit the other guy. Give Hermida some props for a nice piece of hitting. Seriously, look where this pitch was…

That’s a great pitch, a 90 mph cutter on the outer black. Hermida just went out and got it. It happens. Not very often, but it happens.

I know it’s easy to jump on Winn or the coaching staff or whoever for poor positioning on a play like that, especially since Randy kinda stinks, but in this case it’s not justified. He was positioned properly, Rivera executed his pitch, and Hermida just beat him. Simple as that.

Best draft picks in Yankee history, by round

FILA? (Photo Credit: Tony Dejak, AP)

As if B-Ref couldn’t get any better, yesterday Sean Forman introduced WAR data to the site’s draft pages. Now you can go and see that Alex Rodriguez has the highest career WAR (99.0) among players taken first overall, or that Rich Yett (1.2) has the highest among players taken 649th overall. The data comes from Sean Smith, and it’s calculated just a bit differently than the WAR you find at FanGraphs. However the concept remains the same; it encompasses all aspects of the game expressed in terms of runs (or wins) above a replacement level player.

Needless to say, I wasted a big chunk of my day yesterday playing around with this. What I have for you today is a list of the best players the Yankees have ever drafted in each round, assuming of course they actually signed and at least broke into the big leagues with the Bombers. Remember, the draft wasn’t instituted until 1965, so guys like Lou Gehrig and Mikey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio and Whitey Ford never enjoyed the experience. Without further ado…

First Round: Derek Jeter, SS, 1992, 68.8 WAR
Simply put, Jeter is the greatest player the Yankees have ever drafted. His 68.8 WAR (and counting) is by far the highest total of any player the Yanks have ever selected, and in fact it’s more than 36% larger than the second highest mark. The second best first round pick in team history is Thurman Munson, who amassed 43.4 WAR after being drafted 4th overall in 1968. It really drops off after that, the third best player is Ron Blomberg and his 8.7 WAR. Eek.

Supplemental First Round: Joba Chamberlain, RHP, 2006, 4.3 WAR
The supplemental first round hasn’t been kind to the Yankees through the years, but then again it’s not very often that they’ve lost a free agent good enough to bring back draft pick compensation. Joba is the only sandwich rounder in franchise history to become more than a replacement level player, but of course the jury is still out on some of the recent picks. Now if he could only preserve a four run lead in the 8th inning.

Second behind Joba on the WAR chart is Ryan Bradley, a hard throwing reliever who picked up -0.1 WAR before hurting his arm and ending up out of the game less than six years of being drafted in 1997.

Second Round: Al Leiter, LHP, 1984, 36.1 WAR
Leiter’s first stint in pinstripes didn’t last very long, just 106.2 innings before he was traded for Toronto for former AL homerun king Jesse Barfield. Exactly 0.0 of Al’s career WAR came in a Yankee uniform, which is a shame. But hey, they did draft and develop him. The second best second round pick in Yankee history is catcher Mike Heath, a 1973 selection that accumulated most of his 36.1 WAR with the A’s and Tigers.

Third Round: Ron Guidry, LHP, 1970, 47.3 WAR
Jeter might be the best player the Yankees have ever drafted, but Guidry is the best pitcher they’ve ever drafted. Well, at least until Andy Pettitte passes him a little later this season. The second best third round pick in Yankee history is none other than Nick Johnson, who racked up 14.4 WAR, mostly with the Expos/Nationals.

Fourth Round: Stan Bahnsen, RHP, 1965, 19.1 WAR
This one’s a little before my time, so I can’t comment much. Bahnsen spent parts of five seasons in the Yankees’ rotation, winning the 1968 Rookie of the Year thanks to a 2.05 ERA in 267.1 innings. He moved on to the White Sox, A’s, Expos, Angels, and Phillies. The next best fourth round pick the Yankees ever made was Jim Beattie, who wasn’t too far behind Bahnsen with 13.5 WAR.

Fifth Round: J.T Snow, 1B, 1989, 10.0 WAR
Snow was a real good player for a long time, but of course he only had 19 plate appearances in a Yankee uniform. However, some other players the Yankees drafted in the fifth round but were unable to sign include B.J. Surhoff (34.4 WAR), Jim Barr (29.8), and Todd Stottlemyre (21.6). They also traded Greg Gagne (23.9 WAR) before he ever played a game in the Bronx. After Snow, the best player the Yanks ever selected in this round that actually broke into the big leagues with them is Randy Choate, who’s been worth just 0.7 WAR in his career.

Things start the thin out the deeper you go, obviously, though there’s definitely a few exceptions. It’s pretty crazy to think that three of the greatest Yankees ever, as in the entire history of the franchise, were drafted after the 18th round. Ridiculous.

After the jump, a bullet point list of the best players ever picked by the Yanks in each round. It’s rather long.

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