River Avenue Blues

OOTP Guest Series: What if the Yankees had traded for Cliff Lee in 2010?

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The hot stove is running cold right now, so this week we’re running a series of guest posts from Sam Tydings, Steven’s brother. Sam used Out of the Park Baseball to simulate some past “what if” Yankees scenarios. We’ve already looked at the Greg Maddux non-signing, the Albert Belle non-signing, and the Vlad Guerrero non-signing. Now it’s time for the Cliff Lee non-trade. You can follow Sam on Twitter at @simmonsclass.

(Mike Ehrmann/Getty)

The morning of July 9th, 2010 was a crucial one in recent Yankees history. At the time, the defending champion Yankees had a 3-game lead in the AL East over the Rays and a 5-game lead over the Red Sox, and the team was in Seattle for their final series before the All-Star Break, scheduled to face M’s ace Cliff Lee that night. The Mariners were tied for the 2nd worst record in the American League, despite trading for Lee in the final year of his deal over the winter to pair with young ace Felix Hernandez in an attempt to make their first playoff run since 2001.

There had been light speculation about where Lee would be moved, but then all hell broke loose on the morning of the 9th. A deal sending top prospect Jesus Montero, along with infielder David Adams and pitcher Zach McAllister to Seattle for Lee was just about done. Until it wasn’t. Whether it was a legitimate concern or a ploy to get Texas to up their offer, the Mariners pulled out of the deal over Adams’ medicals, shipping Lee to the Rangers, who he would lead to the AL pennant before spurning the Yankees again in December to join the Phillies.

So as Yankees OOTP Week (or whatever you end up calling this) continues, let’s take a look at an alternate universe where Lee ends up in pinstripes for the stretch run in 2010. Thank you, Force Trade button:

The fake 2010 Yankees immediately take off with Lee helping to anchor the rotation. Instead of dueling with the Rays for the division title, the Yankees cruised to a 104-58 record, topping their 2009 mark. Meanwhile the Lee-less Rangers clung to the American League West at 82-80. The teams ended up meeting in the fake ALCS, but with Lee on the Yankees, the series is a rout. The Yankees ended up only dropping one playoff game en route to their 2nd straight championship. Lee went 12-1 with just a 1.84 ERA for the team after the trade, leading to his second Cy Young award.

Fun fact: the 2010 Yankees gave 19 second-half starts to Dustin Moseley, Sergio Mitre, and Ivan Nova.

Congrats, Cliff! We’re all very happy for you!

Perhaps wooed by the ring, Lee stayed in New York with a massive 5-year contract that featured an opt-out after just two years. Fake Lee would go on to lead the Yankees to another pennant before bouncing around the league, finishing just shy of 75% on his final Hall of Fame ballot. It is difficult to see a reality in which a Lee trade does not result in at least the Yankees’ second straight pennant if not another title. Lee was ultimately felled in that 2010 World Series by the likes of Freddy Sanchez, Cody Ross, and Edgar Renteria of course, so anything is possible.

The key component of the Lee trade heading to Seattle was Montero, who was a few months removed from being tied to a Yankees trade for Roy Halladay, and 18 months until he was ultimately flipped to the Pacific Northwest but for Michael Pineda instead of a bona fide ace. Had Lee come to New York and won a title regardless of signing an extension, the trade would have been immediately justified. If he had a similarly awful World Series as the one he pitched in Ranger blue and red and headed to Philadelphia anyway, we would still be ruing the lack of value received for Montero, even if he struggled as he did in Seattle.

Obviously with hindsight being what it is, the Yankees should have dealt Montero in a package for Halladay at the 2009 Winter Meetings if it was truly on the table, instead of refusing to send their top prospect in-division. The 2009-2012 contention window had many fond memories, but it was clear at the time and more so now almost a decade later that the team needed another frontline starter.

There are a myriad of reasons why the Lee trade could have been a disaster for the Yankees: the playoffs are random, he might have ended up hating New York and leaving without delivering a title, maybe Montero thrives with more seasoning in Seattle (ok, probably not that last one). Regardless, if the Yankees weren’t being nakedly used for leverage over the course of a year, they missed their shot to deal their best hitting prospect in a decade from a position of depth for an ace who could have added a couple of more flags to the new stadium’s facade.

The Dodgers and A.J. Pollock may have set the market for the Yankees and Aaron Hicks

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(Al Bello/Getty)

Three years and three months ago the Yankees swung a trade that was maybe a tad confusing at the time and has since played a major role in the team’s return to prominence. The Yankees sent John Ryan Murphy to the Twins for Aaron Hicks in November 2015. They traded a 24-year-old catcher coming off a .277/.326/.406 (100 wRC+) season for a 26-year-old outfielder with a career .225/.306/.349 (82 wRC+) batting line in parts of three MLB seasons. Hmmm.

Murphy was blocked by Brian McCann and the Yankees had Gary Sanchez coming, so catcher was a position of depth in the organization. Center field was not. Not with Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury entering their mid-30s. The Twins gave up on Murphy after 90 plate appearances and Hicks, following a tough year as the fourth outfielder in 2016, has broken out as a cornerstone player the last two years. His ranks among the 87 outfielders with at least 800 plate appearances from 2017-18:

  • OBP: .368 (11th)
  • wRC+: 127 (18th)
  • Baserunning runs: +9.6 (10th)
  • WAR: +8.2 (12th)

There’s a reason Hicks was a first round pick (14th overall in 2008) and ranked by Baseball America (subs. req’d) as the 19th best prospect in baseball in 2010. It’s because he’s a great athlete with loads of tools, and had the ability to do exactly what he’s done the last two seasons. That’s become a top 15 outfielder in baseball. Hicks was struggling with the Twins, the Yankees took a chance on his upside, and have been rewarded handsomely.

Next offseason Hicks will be rewarded handsomely, though probably not as handsomely as he would have been a few years ago given the current state of free agency. Hicks will hit the open market next winter as a just turned 30-year-old switch-hitting center fielder who gets on base, has power, runs the bases well, and saves runs in the field. He has an impact in all phases of the game and those guys are hard to find. The Yankees should want to sign him long-term.

With another strong season in 2019, Hicks could’ve gone into free agency seeking Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M) or Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) money not that long ago. That was the going rate for an above-average two-way center fielder. Hicks will hit free agency one year younger than Fowler was when he signed his deal, and two years younger than Cain. In a “normal” free agent climate, yeah, five years and $80M would’ve been market value.

The market has changed. For whatever reason teams are steering clear of free agents, even great ones like Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. “Why get better when you can get cheaper” is a pretty common hot stove theme these days. With a huge 2019, a year even better than 2017-18, yeah, maybe Hicks can still put himself in position for an $80M or so contract next winter. It just seems so unlikely now, no matter what he does this season.

Last week the Dodgers signed A.J. Pollock to a contract that might’ve set the market for Hicks. It’s a complicated contract — I swear, every big money contract the Dodgers give out is complicated — but these are the nuts and bolts:

  • Four years with a $12M luxury tax hit.
  • Pollock is guaranteed at least $45M.
  • Pollock can opt out following year three.
  • Pollock has a fifth year player option.

Pollock turned 31 in December, so he’s a year older than Hicks will be when he hits free agency next winter. He’s also had more injury problems in his career. Hicks is no stranger to the disabled list himself, but all his injuries are muscle pulls. Pollock has played only 237 of 486 possible games the last three years because he’s had muscle pulls and broken bones (hand, elbow, thumb). Age and injury history are advantage Hicks.

We don’t know what Hicks will do in 2019 yet, but we do know his 2017-18 seasons were kinda similar to Pollock’s. Look at the numbers:

Same number of games, similar batting average, same strikeout rate, same isolated power, both above-average baserunners and defenders. The biggest difference between the two is Hicks walks a lot more. Literally more than twice as often as Pollock. The numbers say he’s been a better defender and baserunner too, hence a 3.5 WAR difference between the two the last two years.

Had Hicks hit free agency this winter he and his representatives could’ve said he deserves more than Pollock, and they absolutely would’ve been correct. Hicks didn’t hit free agency this winter though. He’ll hit free agency next winter, and who knows how his 2019 season will play out? I think he’ll be fine. He’s only 29 and he’s obviously talented. At age 29, there’s a chance 2019 will be the best year of his career.

There also risk involved with waiting a year until free agency. Hicks could get hurt, or his performance could slip, or the free agent market could get even worse. Rather than wait, Hicks could jump at an extension now. By time the season ends he’ll have made $13.5M between MLB salaries and his draft signing bonus. Take away taxes and agent fees and all that and it’s still a lot of money, but Hicksie might want to lock in long-term security for Baby Hicksie.

Hicks has already signed a one-year, $6M contract for 2019. The Yankees can now sign him to an extension that begins in 2020 without affecting their 2019 luxury tax payroll. Put the Pollock contract (four years, $45M with some bells and whistles) in front of him and it goes like this:

  • What’s in it for Hicks? Peace of mind and long-term security, for starters. He also gets an opt-out if things go well and a player option if things don’t. Also, no need to sweat free agency, which is increasingly unfavorable to players. Waiting until January or February to sign is no fun.
  • What’s in it for the Yankees? Long-term control of a very good player and cost certainty, which is a big deal for payroll planning. There’s no bidding war and it’s one less core player the Yankees have to worry about signing (Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances are also impending free agents).

The downside for Hicks is he could sell himself short. What if he does have a career year at age 29 in 2019? A career year for Hicks could be something like .300/.400/.550 with 35 homers, 15 steals, and +8 WAR. That would set him up for a large free agent payday, even in this market. As for the Yankees, the downside for them is sinking a lot of money into a player who could lose value. That’s the sort of risk every team takes with every big money signing though.

A few weeks ago Brian Cashman said he’s planning to discuss extensions with Hicks as well as Gregorius and Betances. With the free agent market being what it is, it makes more sense for the Yankees to wait on an extension than ever before. Even with a great year, chances are Hicks is not looking at a massive payday next offseason because massive paydays don’t really exist anymore. The Fowler and Cain contracts are probably his free agent upside and that’s not something that will make or break the Yankees financially. (They’ll pretend it will though.)

I think Hicks is a better player than Pollock — the numbers back me up on this — plus he’ll be a year younger when he hits free agency than Pollock was, so I think getting Hicks at Pollock money would be a pretty great deal. The sooner the Yankees can get it done, the better. Hicks doesn’t have to worry about free agency or long-term security, and the Yankees don’t have to worry about center field for another few years. An extension in Pollock’s range could work for both sides in this free agent market.

Considering positioning as a factor in Andujar’s defense

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(Presswire)

A couple weeks ago, Mike wrote about the Yankees doubling down on Miguel Andujar’s defense. The key takeaway was that Andujar’s struggles aren’t for a lack of effort. His work ethic is virtually unparalleled, though at some point, the results need to follow. The biggest issue with Miggy’s defense has been his range, something Mike also addressed last summer.

Good range requires quick reaction time and lateral quickness. Generally speaking, I think a player’s reflexes are innate and probably next to impossible to improve. Lateral quickness is something that can be improved via training. Perhaps we see a more nimble Andujar this year, but I’m skeptical that his reaction improves. There is one way to compensate for a slow first step, however: better positioning. That’s why I found the following quote Mike used in his most recent piece worth discussing:

“What we’re focusing on right now is his pre-pitch setup,” [Infield coach Carlos] Mendoza added. “We’re trying to put him in the best position so he can react at contact. Making sure that he finds a spot where he’s comfortable on his setup so he can have a better first step, a better read on the ball to create better angles. It starts with his setup and his ready position.”

Getting Andujar into a comfortable stance in order to make a quick first movement is important, but what about moving Andujar a few steps back? Would he be more comfortable standing a few feet further away from the infield grass, thereby giving him more time to get to wide grounders? It seems pretty logical. Of course, it could also be too good to be true.

One of the nice things Statcast shares is defensive positioning data, which tells us how far away players stand from the plate prior to each pitch. Using this information, I figured we could see how Andujar’s counterparts position themselves, while also looking to see if their depth has an effect on their performance.

By the Numbers

Statcast tells us that the typical third baseman was positioned 113 feet away from home plate last year. Andujar was a foot closer to the grass, checking in at 112. Others ranged as far as 118 feet away (Alex Bregman and Matt Chapman) to only 107 feet deep (Johan Camargo). To try to assign some meaning to this, I wanted to compare the depth to player’s range and arm strength. My theory was that players who play deeper have better range, stronger arms, and slower first steps than those who play shallower.

For range, I used Range Runs (RngR), which is a component of UZR. Admittedly, UZR is far from imperfect but it’s just about the best information available in this instance. Of 31 third baseman who played at least 500 innings at the hot corner last year, there was no correlation between RngR and depth. Bummer.

Arm strength and first step is something that Statcast can measure, but unfortunately, it’s not publicly available. The next best thing I could find was the FANS scouting report, which was most recently done at the end of the 2017 season on Fangraphs. It’s not what I’d want to look at ideally, but the wisdom of the crowds is worth something. There are grades for arm strength, range, and many other tools for years 2017 and prior. In this instance, arm strength and range are all we need. Once again, though, no correlation. Before the charts, one thing to note that this sample is limited to 21 third baggers. First, arm strength:

Finally, first step:

What all this says to me is that positioning is a matter of personal comfort. There are times when a scouting report will affect a third baseman’s location on the diamond, such as bunt situations or against pull-happy lefties. Ultimately, positioning isn’t a one-size fit all solution.

What the best third baseman do

Tricks of the trade can be learned from peers, and there are plenty of good third basemen in the league right now. Below, a table of third baseman who had both positive DRS and UZR marks in 2018:

Name Depth (ft.) DRS UZR RngR First Step Arm
Matt Chapman 118 29 10.9 10 77 75
Travis Shaw 117 9 2.2 3.9 45 45
Nolan Arenado 116 5 5.8 1.4 78 79
Eduardo Escobar 115 5 1.5 -2.3 44 52
Yolmer Sanchez 114 5 3.6 4 52 64
Jose Ramirez 114 3 3.3 1.6 62 67
Mike Moustakas 114 2 1 -1.8 71 38
Adrian Beltre 111 10 2.1 1.4 72 67
Todd Frazier 110 2 2.4 1.1 52 47
Jedd Gyorko 109 6 1.3 1.5 41 53
Johan Camargo 107 7 5.5 5.7 71 53

There’s a wide range of defensive positioning, again illustrating the fact that its more of a preference than anything else. To no one’s surprise, Chapman sits at the top with some outlandishly great numbers all around. He just so happens to play far back. On the other side of the coin, there’s Beltre. He’s one of the best fielders to ever play the position, yet he’s much closer than Chapman. Out of curiosity to see if he moved in as he got older, I went back to 2016 (the earliest available), but Beltre hasn’t moved. Again, this points to depth being whatever each player favors.

Why Andujar should try playing deeper

Even though a few defensive metrics don’t correlate well with depth, that doesn’t mean Andujar would be wasting his time by trying something different. After all, if Chapman plays 118 feet back, why shouldn’t Andujar give it a shot? Miggy has a pretty fantastic arm himself, so it’s not a matter of arm strength that prevents Andujar from trying it. If he’s comfortable playing deep and has some positive results to show for it, great. If not, he can always revert to his old location. This is the perfect experiment to conduct during spring training.

I don’t want this idea to come off as some sort of panacea. I’ve already noted that there isn’t a correlation between depth and a few stats, but what I haven’t gotten into are certain factors specific to Andujar that need to be considered. For one, Andujar has a bad habit of double clutching before throwing. This is already an issue that could be exacerbated by playing deeper, which gives the runner extra time. On the other hand, Andujar has a rocket for an arm. With his arm strength, I don’t think a longer throw would be an issue. It’s just a matter of correcting the double clutch, which ostensibly is teachable. Although this idea was born because of Andujar’s lack of range, I wouldn’t have proposed it if he didn’t have the arm for it.

What’s next

Spring training is right around the corner and I’m curious to see if there are any noticeable differences for Andujar. We’ve heard about how much work he’s put in this offseason, and given the apparent lack of desire to sign Manny Machado, Andujar’s fielding is going to be heavily scrutinized. The unfortunate thing is that it’s so difficult to notice changes, particularly when watching on TV. There’s no view of pre-pitch positioning or a shot of a fielder’s first step. It might not be until partway through the regular season, when some of the returns for various metrics come in, that we can get an idea of any changes or improvements made, if any.

As Mike noted a couple weeks back, it’s fantastic that Andujar has the drive to get better. I’d much rather have that than a terrible defender who doesn’t care. Still, results need to come at some point, otherwise he’s going to be untenable at the position. Moving him off of third is always an option, but his bat wouldn’t be as valuable elsewhere. The Yankees know this, and will exhaust every last option before conceding. If no stone is going unturned, perhaps moving Andujar back a few feet is worth a shot.

Wednesday Notes: Top 110 Prospects, Cessa, German, Loaisiga

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Florial. (Presswire)

In two weeks pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa and Spring Training will begin. Will Manny Machado or Bryce Harper sign before then? I’m starting to think no. Would be pretty embarrassing for baseball if two 26-year-old superstars are unemployed when Spring Training opens, I think. Anyway, here are some notes and links to check out.

Three Yankees among Law’s top 110 prospects

Over the last few days Keith Law released his top 110 prospects list for the 2019 season: Nos. 1-50, Nos. 51-100, and Nos. 101-110. Everything is behind the paywall, though I will tell you Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as Law’s top prospect, not Blue Jays 3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Vlad Jr. is second.) Three Yankees make the top 110:

61. RHP Deivi Garcia
101. OF Everson Pereira
106. OF Estevan Florial

Law says Garcia “at least looks like he is built from the same mold as guys such as (Marcus) Stroman and Roy Oswalt,” meaning a short righty who can stick as a starter. He adds Pereira might’ve made the top 100 had he not missed time with injury last year. “(The) raw tools and the fact that he still hit .263/.322/.389 despite his youth mark him as a potential top-50 guy for next year,” says the write-up.

Like Baseball America, Law kept Florial out of his top 100 for pitch recognition issues. (Florial wasn’t in Law’s top 100 last year either.) And, given his injury history, I’m not surprised RHP Jonathan Loaisiga didn’t make the top 110 or even the honorable mentions. Loaisiga has top 100 stuff and control, but not top 100 health. The only former Yankees prospect to crack Law’s top 110 list is Mariners LHP Justus Sheffield, who ranked 34th. He went to Seattle in the James Paxton trade.

Yankees received calls on Cessa, German, Loaisiga

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees have received trade calls this offseason on depth starters Luis Cessa, Domingo German, and Jonathan Loaisiga. Obviously the Yankees haven’t received an offer to their liking given the fact all three righties remain in the organization. Loaisiga’s trade value may never be higher than it is right now. Given his injury history, I wouldn’t be against cashing him as a trade chip.

The Yankees (finally) traded Sonny Gray two weeks ago and they’ve yet to sign a swingman type to replace him, not unless you count Drew Hutchison or David Hale. Cessa, German, Loaisiga, and Chance Adams are the Nos. 6-9 starters in whatever order. Cessa is out of options, so trading him would be preferable to potentially losing him on waivers for nothing, but I’m not sure the Yankees would get much in return. Cessa is probably more valuable to the Yankees as a depth piece than anything he could fetch in a trade. Same with German.

Nike, not Under Armour, will be MLB’s next uniform supplier

Earlier this month MLB announced a new ten-year agreement that makes Nike the league’s new uniform supplier beginning in 2020. Nike will replace Majestic. A few years ago Under Armour was in talks to take over as the league’s uniform supplier, but that deal fell apart, and Nike swooped in. The Under Armour logo would’ve appeared on the jersey chest, like so:

The Associated Press reports the Nike swoosh logo “likely will move to a more prominent position on jersey fronts,” though no details were announced. Currently the Majestic logo appears only on uniform sleeves, and the Yankees have an exemption. There’s no Majestic logo on their jerseys. I would be surprised if they get a similar exemption in the Nike deal. Much like the New Era logo on the side of caps, it probably won’t be long before you stop noticing the Nike logo on jersey fronts.

Yankees hire first ever Environment Science Advisor

The Yankees have hired Dr. Allen Hershkowitz as their new Environmental Science Advisor, the team announced. It’s the first position of its kind in pro sports. “The Yankees have always been devoted to supporting the best interests of our community, our fans and our players, and we believe effective eco-friendly initiatives are a key element of our interactions,” said Hal Steinbrenner in a statement.

Teams around the league have taken up green initiatives but never before has a sports club hired someone for the express purpose of helping them become more environmentally friendly. The Yankees say Hershkowitz will have a “primary focus on the areas of energy use, waste management, water conservation, and food services.” I imagine it’s only a matter of time until this catches on around the league and other teams invest in environmental advisors.

OOTP Guest Series: What if the Yankees signed Vlad Guerrero instead of Gary Sheffield?

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The hot stove is running cold right now, so this week we’re running a series of guest posts from Sam Tydings, Steven’s brother. Sam used Out of the Park Baseball to simulate some past “what if” Yankees scenarios. We’ve already looked at the Greg Maddux non-signing and the Albert Belle non-signing. Now it’s time for the Vlad Guerrero non-signing. You can follow Sam on Twitter at @simmonsclass.

(Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty)

The 2003 offseason was a pivotal one for the balance of power in MLB. By Thanksgiving, the Red Sox added Curt Schilling to a team that was five outs away from winning the AL pennant. The Yankees locked in on Braves outfielder Gary Sheffield to shore up a right field spot that had been filled by the likes of Raul Mondesi, David Dellucci, and Ruben Sierra since Paul O’Neill’s retirement two years prior. Sheffield had no other major suitors and the Yankees zeroed in on him and signed the slugger to a three-year deal despite a better, younger, future Hall of Fame player hitting the market.

Vladimir Guerrero ended up leaving the Expos (who did not offer him salary arbitration) for the bright lights of Los Angeles of Anaheim, joining an Angels team on a five-year deal that saw him win MVP in year one and notch three other top-10 finishes. Sheffield joined a bevy of relievers in the Yankees’ 03-04 free agency haul, one that saw them lose Roger Clemens, David Wells, and Andy Pettitte from their rotation. Neither Guerrero nor Sheffield won a World Series with their new clubs, but since this is a Yankees blog, let’s see what happens if Vlad ended up patrolling the Yankees outfield instead of the guy who ran into Bubba Crosby.

For the sake of this sim, we’ll send Sheff to the Angels, who need a right fielder with Vlad spurning them for the Yankees. We are also going to note that even though a Vlad signing makes it more likely that the Red Sox follow through on a trade for Alex Rodriguez, he will still be in pinstripes for the fake 2004 season, which in many senses mirrored reality. Vlad was the MVP runner up with 45 home runs, the Red Sox defeated the Yankees in the ALCS and beat the Cubs to win the title.

Fake Vlad’s signature season with the Yankees was 2008, in which he won league MVP and World Series MVP as the Yankees defeated the Diamondbacks to send off the old stadium with a bang. From there, Vlad decided to take his talents to LA in free agency, joining the Dodgers and leaving the Yankees on a high note and with a compensatory draft pick.

Sheffield, on the other hand, had three solid seasons in Anaheim before winding down his career. Vlad was elected to the Hall of Fame on his first ballot and went in as a Yankee. Sheffield also ended up getting in, which says much more about the makeup of the actual electorate than how OOTP decides guys should be enshrined.

Obviously had the Yankees locked in on Montreal’s free agent right fielder instead of Atlanta’s 15 years ago, the upside for those mid-00’s teams would have been immediately improved. It would not have fixed the team’s biggest flaw (pitching) and they might not have actually been able to overcome that, even with Vlad on the team. But Guerrero’s presence would have meant the Yankees had no need to acquire Bobby Abreu, and then Nick Swisher after Abreu’s departure, allowing the Yankees to hold onto those prospects for a possible trade for a starting pitcher. Even if guys like C.J. Henry and Jeff Marquez didn’t pan out, they were still assets with value at the time they were moved.

Any time a team makes a mistake in free agency or whiffs on a trade, they have to compound that mistake by giving up something of value if they’re trying to win. Therefore, there is obviously a tremendous reward for locking in a young talent in free agency for nothing more than money and draft or international signing pool punishments. Had the Yankees signed Vlad to a long-term deal in 2004, they would have had an extremely talented and popular player penciled into a corner position for at least half a decade. It would have freed up their assets so they could fix obvious holes on the team.

Yankees fans have to hope that the decisions they have made so far this offseason aren’t just repeating mistakes from critical moments in the past.

Prospect Profile: Brandon Wagner

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(Presswire)

Brandon Wagner | IF

Background
Wagner, 23, is a local kid who grew up in Somerville, New Jersey, and attended Immaculata High School. Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank him among the top 500 prospects for the 2013 draft, but the Phillies did select Wagner in the 39th round (1,171st overall). He did not sign out of high school and instead headed to Howard College in Texas, a two-year school.

As a freshman with the Hawks, Wagner put up a strong .314/.488/.490 batting line with four homers and more walks (47) than strikeouts (40) in 48 games. Despite that, Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Wagner among their top 500 prospects for the 2014 draft, and he was not selected. He returned to Howard for his sophomore year and hit .435/.571/.891 with 22 homers and again more walks (46) than strikeouts (43) in 58 games. That earned him conference MVP honors.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Wagner as the 438th best prospect in the 2015 draft class. The Yankees selected him in the sixth round (183rd overall) and signed him to a straight slot $256,000 bonus. At age 19, Wagner was one of the youngest college players in his draft class.

Pro Career
Wagner was sent directly to the short season Staten Island Yankees for his pro debut in 2015. He hit .228/.347/.364 (116 wRC+) with four homers, a 25.4% strikeout rate, and a 14.5% walk rate in 52 games. The Yankees held Wagner back in Extended Spring Training to begin 2016 and eventually assigned him to the rookie Gulf Coast League and rookie Appalachian League. He hit .267/.369/.471 (144 wRC+) with eight homers and good strikeout (21.1%) and walk (12.8%) rates in 54 total games that year.

The Yankees assigned Wagner to Low-A Charleston in 2017, his first full season ball assignment, and he responded with a .277/.380/.392 (128 wRC+) batting line and seven homers in 110 games. His walk rate (13.0%) was very good. His strikeout rate (26.4%) was a tad high. Wagner moved up to High-A Tampa last season and had a breakout year, a breakout year that saw him get promoted to Double-A Trenton in the second half. The numbers:

G PA AVG/OBP/SLG wRC+ HR XBH K% BB%
High-A Tampa 87 359 .270/.376/.510 150 20 33 27.0% 12.0%
Double-A Trenton 37 159 .262/.390/.346 116 1 9 23.9% 17.0%
Total 124 518 .267/.380/.461 143 21 42 26.1% 13.5%

After hitting 19 home runs in 216 pro games from 2015-17, Wagner swatted 20 homers in 87 games with High-A Tampa alone last year. Double-A wasn’t as kind, but, you know, it happens. The Yankees had Wagner participate in Instructional League following last season.

Scouting Report
Built solidly at 6-foot-0 and 200 lbs., Wagner is a classic left-handed hitting corner infield masher. His calling card is above-average power to all fields, though, like everyone else, he does the most damage when he speeds up his bat and pulls the ball. Wagner started to really tap into his power last season following some offseason adjustments that turned him into a launch angle guy. His year-to-year ground ball rates:

  • 2015: 51.4%
  • 2016: 46.4%
  • 2017: 45.5%
  • 2018: 35.6%

Wagner’s plate discipline is excellent and bordering on passive. There are times he’ll let hittable pitches go by. And despite having some length to his swing, Wagner doesn’t swing-and-miss a whole lot. His 9.4% swing-and-miss rate last season is better than average and, among the 253 minor leaguers with at least 500 plate appearances last year, only five combined a lower swing-and-miss rate and a higher ISO than Wagner’s marks (9.4% and .194, respectively).

Defensively, Wagner was drafted as a third baseman and he split his pro debut with Staten Island between second and third. He’s been primarily a first baseman since then, however, playing 228 games at first from 2016-18 and only 32 elsewhere. Wagner’s a good athlete and his hands are fine, but he lacks the range for second and the quickness for third. I suspect we might see him play some left field next year in an effort to increase his versatility. Wagner is a good runner who isn’t a liability on the bases, though he’s never been much of a stolen base threat.

2019 Outlook
Wagner is ticketed for a return to Double-A Trenton this season following his 37-game cameo at the level last year, in which he did little besides walk. Trenton is a brutal ballpark for left-handed hitters — the breeze comes in off the Delaware River beyond the right field wall and knocks fly balls down, especially at night — so don’t be surprised if his early season power numbers are down. A midseason promotion to Triple-A Scranton could be in the cards, though the RailRiders may have as many as three true first basemen on the roster in Greg Bird, Mike Ford, and Ryan McBroom. I suspect the Yankees will make room in Triple-A should Wagner really force the issue.

My Take
I’m not the biggest Wagner fan. The swing is a little too long for my liking and I worry upper level pitchers will give him trouble. Wagner strikes me as a potential National League bench bat. A lefty pinch-hitter who can put a mistake in the seats, play some first base and maybe left field, and also fill in at third base in a pinch. American League teams can use a guy like that too, sure. It’s just that the so-called Senior Circuit offers more pinch-hitting opportunities. Wagner went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft in December and I’m not sure he can be anything more than an up-and-down guy for a contending team. If the Yankees get a chance to cash him in as a trade chip, they should pounce.

Thoughts two weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

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(Presswire)

We are now only two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Tampa to begin Spring Training 2019. It is so close and yet not close enough. The first Grapefruit League game is three weeks and four days away. Can’t wait. Here are some scattered thoughts on this Wednesday morning.

1. The Yankees are set in the late innings. It’ll be Aroldis Chapman in the ninth with Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Chad Green, and Adam Ottavino setting him up. That leaves Jonathan Holder and the two other bullpen spots to handle everything else, and the more I think about it, the more I expect Tommy Kahnle and Luis Cessa to get those final two spots. (Given the roster right now, anyway.) That doesn’t mean Kahnle and Cessa will keep those spots all season. Just that I think they’ll get them on Opening Day. Being out of minor league options is part of it. Neither can be sent to Triple-A without passing through waivers and I don’t think either would clear. All things being equal, might as well preserve the pitching depth early in the season. Kahnle was legitimately excellent in 2017 and should be given an opportunity to show whether he can do it again, and I don’t mean eight or nine Grapefruit League innings. Give him some time in regular season games and see what’s up. As for Cessa, the Yankees have given him chance after chance, and I assume that means they like him. Last year the Yankees did not allow a starter to throw 100 pitches until April 22nd, their 20th game of the season, and in all likelihood they will ease their starters into things again. That means they’ll need a long man and Cessa can be that long man. Anyway, that’s my guess right now, that Kahnle and Cessa will get the final two bullpen spots out of Spring Training. I doubt they’ll keep them all season because that’s just the way things work. Eventually a bullpen spot or two will turn into a revolving door.

2. Speaking of bullpen roles, last week Ottavino said he expects to see a lot of right-on-right matchup work, though I’m not sure if that was him speculating, or revealing what he’d been told by the Yankees. “We have some guys who have a little more strength versus left-handed hitters, even though they’re right-handed pitchers, like Chad Green and Dellin Betances. I’ve been pretty tough on righties in my career, so I expect to get a lot of righty-on-righty matchups given our bullpen depth,” he said to Dan Martin. First of all, if that is Ottavino speculating, it’s pretty neat he’s already looking into his new teammates to learn their strengths and weaknesses. Secondly, other than Betances, who is the guy I want on the mound in a big spot against any hitter, Ottavino is the obvious candidate to face tough righties. His slider is devastating. Last season he held righties to a .138/.231/.236 (.215 wOBA) batting line with a 39.4% strikeout rate. He was good against lefties (.252 wOBA and 32.4 K%) and outstanding against righties. When Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez or Tommy Pham or Vlad Guerrero Jr. come up before Dellin’s assigned inning, I want Ottavino on the mound, not Green or Britton. Those guys are good too, don’t get me wrong, but Ottavino is one of the top right-on-right bullpen options in baseball. That’s how the Yankees should use him. That he can hold his own (more than hold his own, really) against lefties is a nice bonus. Ottavino said he expects a lot of right-on-right work and that’s how Aaron Boone and the Yankees should plan to use him. That’s how he’s most valuable.

3. One last point on Ottavino: Does anyone really care about his Babe Ruth comments? Ottavino was asked about them during his introductory conference call last week and it’s been presented as a potential problem in several places (like here and here and here). The general theme in those pieces is Ottavino dissed Babe Ruth and is therefore already on the fan base’s bad side, so he better pitch well, otherwise he’s really going to hear boos. I mean, really? Here are the Ruth comments, via Ron Blum:

“I had an argument with a coach in Triple-A about Babe Ruth’s effectiveness in today’s game,” Ottavino told MLB.com’s Statcast podcast. “And this was like 10 years ago. I said, look, Babe Ruth, with that swing, swinging that bat, I got him hitting a buck-40 with eight homers.”

“And he’s like, ‘Are you nuts? Babe Ruth would hit .370 with 60 homers,’” Ottavino went on. “And I’m like, I would strike Babe Ruth out every time. I’m not trying to disrespect him, rest in peace, shout out to Babe Ruth. But it was a different game. I mean the guy ate hot dogs and drank beer and did whatever he did, and it was just a different game.”

Would Ottavino strike out Ruth every time? No, probably not, but I imagine he’d strike him out much more often than not. Ruth never saw mid-90 fastballs and he certainly never saw a breaking ball like Ottavino’s. Humans are bigger, stronger, and faster now than they were a century ago. Ruth was historically great relative to his era. In this era, I’m not sure he gets out of Single-A ball. Anyway, back to the original question. Does anyone really care about this? I feel like Ottavino’s comments are getting more attention in the media than among fans. I think (most) fans are willing to admit that yeah, present day Ottavino would dominate back in the day Ruth. Had Ottavino said he’d strike out Derek Jeter or Don Mattingly every time, well, that’s different. That would annoy people. Babe Ruth though? I’d like to think the coverage outweighs the actual concern here. If Ottavino stinks, he’ll get booed. That’s just the way it is. I can’t imagine enough folks are so bothered by the Ruth comments that Ottavino will hear boos even when pitching well. What a non-story.

4. The Yankees have signed an awful lot of players to minor league contracts this offseason. More than usual, it seems. Might as well dig up the numbers. Here are the players with big league time who joined the Yankees on a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training the last few years:

  • 2019 (8): Rex Brothers, Billy Burns, Danny Coulombe, Danny Farquhar, David Hale, Drew Hutchison, Ryan Lavarnway, Gio Urshela
  • 2018 (5): Danny Espinosa, David Hale, Erik Kratz, Wade LeBlanc, Jace Peterson
  • 2017 (6): Wilkin Castillo, Ji-Man Choi, Jason Gurka, Pete Kozma, Donovan Solano, Ruben Tejada
  • 2016 (8): Carlos Corporan, Tyler Cloyd, Jonathan Diaz, Pete Kozma, Vinnie Pestano, Eddy Rodriguez, Donovan Solano, Anthony Swarzak
  • 2015 (5): Andrew Bailey, Scott Baker, Cole Figueroa, Nick Noonan, Eddy Rodriguez

Eh, I’m mistaken. When you average six such non-roster invitees from 2015-18, including eight in 2016, having eight in 2019 isn’t crazy. I guessing eight this year stands out to me because the Yankees only had five last year. Does this mean anything? It could. The Yankees have some injured 40-man roster players who will either not participate in Spring Training (Didi Gregorius, Jordan Montgomery) or be limited (Jacoby Ellsbury, Ben Heller), and they need players to fill in the gaps. Also, the farm system is not what it was in recent years. Last year the Yankees didn’t need a second non-roster outfielder like Matt Lipka because they had Billy McKinney and Jake Cave. They didn’t need four extra relievers like this year because Heller was healthy and Gio Gallegos and Cody Carroll were still in the organization. That’s the way it goes. The Yankees graduated several top prospects to the big leagues and traded several others for MLB help. Now they have to replenish their Triple-A depth with (slightly more than usual) minor league contract deals.

5. A few weeks ago Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) passed along word the Yankees hired Dillon Lawson away from the Astros to be their new minor league hitting coordinator. He’ll help create and implement hitter development strategies in the farm system. Lawson, who joined Houston from the University of Missouri, has extensively researched pitch recognition, and was called the “hitting coach of the future” by one of his former Astros colleagues for his data-driven philosophies and state of the art training methods. From Adler:

The understanding that some hitters have a better eye for recognizing what pitch is coming than others is not new. (Southern Illinois professor) Dr. Fadde and Lawson have attempted to analyze that advantage, and make it a skill that can be specifically developed in hitters.

One of the most effective tools is having hitters watch video of pitches being thrown, then cutting off the feed before the pitch completes its trajectory. The hitter is asked to guess what type of pitch type they saw. Ideally, a hitter should be looking for indicators like a wrist looking skinnier for the pronation of a curveball or slower arm action for a changeup.

I find this interesting for a lot of reasons, including the fact Estevan Florial, the Yankees’ top prospect, has pitch recognition issues. I don’t think the Yankees hired Lawson specifically to help Florial — there are a lot of hitters in the minors who need to improve their pitch recognition — but it is certainly convenient the new hitting coordinator’s strength is the top prospect’s weakness. I’m not sure whether Lawson’s training methods fit under the “analytics” umbrella but they certainly appear to be new-school techniques. We know teams use analytics to identify free agent and trade targets. These days I find myself much more interested in how they use analytics to help their players get better. Maybe what Lawson does isn’t truly “analytics.” Point is, it is something new and modern, and now the Yankees are doing it. Helping your own players become better is the new thing these days and I’d love to learn more about the process behind it. I find it fascinating.

6. Now that he’s in the Hall of Fame, will the Yankees put Mike Mussina in the Monument Park? They don’t have to retire his number (No. 35 has been back in circulation for years) but perhaps a plaque would be in order? For what it’s worth, there are Hall of Famers who played a long time — a very long time — with the Yankees and are not in Monument Park. Dave Winfield doesn’t have a plaque or anything. Earle Combs played his entire career with the Yankees and he’s not in Monument Park. Tony Lazzeri and Waite Hoyt aren’t either. Mussina, as good as he was, never won a World Series with the Yankees nor a Cy Young. Heck, Mussina never even made an All-Star Game as a Yankee. (It’s true.) There are only two players in Monument Park who never won a World Series with the Yankees: Don Mattingly and Mel Stottlemyre, and Stottlemyre eventually won four rings as a coach. Mattingly is in Monument Park despite not having a ring because he was a great career-long Yankee and also because he was so beloved. There’s precedent for leaving a Hall of Famer out of Monument Park, even one who played with the Yankees as long as Mussina. I don’t think the Yankees will give him a plaque. I do hope they honor him with a day at Yankee Stadium though. Something more than a longer than usual intro at Old Timers’ Day.

7. Forget about denial, bargaining, and depression. I keep going back and forth between anger and acceptance with the Manny Machado and Bryce Harper situation. Those are my two stages of grief. Angry the Yankees appear content to pass on two prime-aged stars and acceptance that there’s nothing I can do about it. Just whatever, man. I try to stay pretty mellow about baseball — it’s baseball, it’s supposed to be fun, and getting mad about it doesn’t improve my life in any way — but the Machado and Harper thing is infuriating. It’s not just me either. My work at CBS exposes me to all 30 fan bases and they all seem to be angry about the overall state of baseball right now. Maybe it’s just my little social media bubble that feels that way and the majority of fans are a-okay with things. I’m not sure that’s the case. How is fans being angry good for the baseball? How is having so many teams not trying to compete good for baseball? How is this good for baseball:

Not that long ago MLB’s offseason was busy in November and December, and the early part of January, then quiet for a few weeks. The big free agents would sign and the top trade candidates would get moved during the Winter Meetings (or thereabouts), the top Scott Boras client would sign sometime in January, and then things slowed down and we all longed for Spring Training. Nowadays we wait and wait and wait for the the best free agents to sign. It’s not just Harper and Machado either. It’s Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel too, plus scores of mid-range free agents. It is exhausting and I think it’s bad for the game overall. MLB owners have turned their teams into get rich quick schemes and I think we’re starting to see some of the damage. Attendance has declined the last two years — league attendance dropped three million (!) from 2017-18 to its lowest level since 2003 — and now a seemingly growing portion of fans are getting sick of the offseason. Perhaps the league doesn’t care as long as the owners get rich. At some point though, MLB is going to have to do something to improve public relations, and it won’t be easy. There won’t be a Sammy Sosa/Mark McGwire home run chase to save them this time. I know commissioner Rob Manfred works for the owners, but he’s also supposed to be a steward of the game, and the state of things isn’t great and getting worse.