NY Yankees News, Information & Community

Thoughts four weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

January 16, 2019 by Mike

We are now four weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training. Grapefruit League games are less than six weeks away. Hooray for that. Baseball is coming. Sooner than you think. Anyway, here are some scattered thoughts on this Wednesday.

1. The Yankees are very talented and they’re going to win a lot of games in the coming years. I just can’t shake the feeling they are missing out on an opportunity to become THE TEAM this offseason. They’ve opted to spread the money around and acquire several good players rather than one or two great players. You can argue that is the smart way to go — the 2013 Red Sox won a World Series that way — but I also feel the Yankees were uniquely positioned to capitalize on this free agent class. The homegrown core is excellent and cheap, and when you’re in the game’s biggest market, that’s when you use your financial might to acquire stars. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are both 26 years old. They’re younger than Aaron Judge! They fit into the young core nicely and make the Yankees much better. The Yankees were all set up for a blockbuster offseason. The core is cheap and the luxury tax rate has been reset. I’m not sure what more they needed to do. The Yankees have had a good offseason. James Paxton and DJ LeMahieu are strong additions and having J.A. Happ and Zach Britton for a full season will help. Assuming the Yankees do not sign Machado or Harper — both remain unsigned, so a signing is still possible — this winter feels like a giant missed opportunity. The Yankees might not ever be better set up to spend on transcendent talent than they were coming into this offseason, and it hasn’t happened. Shrug.

2. This has no real on-field value, but you know what? The Yankees signing Machado would be just tremendous for the rivalry with the Red Sox and a great thing for baseball overall. It’s been a long time since the Yankees and Red Sox were this good at the same time. You have to go back to what, 2007? The rivalry went stale for a while there. Now it has some meaning again. Adding Machado to it? Gosh, that would be fun. Baseball needs a villain and, like it or not, the Yankees are that villain. It’s just the way it is. They’re the best and most successful team in the sport’s history and everyone is sick of hearing about them. Remember when the baseball world seemed to embrace the lovable underdog 2017 Yankees? That was fun. It’s never happening again. Not anytime soon, anyway. The 2017 Yankees caught everyone off-guard and now they’re all right back to hating them again. Embrace it. Adding Machado not only makes the Yankees better on the field, but it adds some spark to the rivalry with the Red Sox, and it further gives baseball fans around the world that common enemy. If you’re reading this, chances are you love the Yankees. Pretty much everyone else hates them though. Hey, it’s good for business. Machado — and even Harper to some degree — would give everyone even more of a reason to hate the Yankees. Would be great for ratings and attendance and social media, and baseball overall.

3. I’ve seen lots of folks, both fans and people in media, say the Yankees need to watch their spending now because at some point they have to sign all their homegrown stars, namely Judge, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, and Miguel Andujar. It’s true, the Yankees will have to pay those guys at some point. The idea they can’t spend now because they have to pay them later is silly though. First of all, who says they’ll be worth paying down the road? I love all those guys and I hope they do well. This is baseball though, and sometimes things don’t work out as expected. Secondly, if paying those guys is so important, why aren’t the Yankees signing them to extensions now? The earlier you sign them, the more you save. Seems like a smart idea. The Yankees have been extension adverse for several years now though. Third, guys like LeMahieu, Britton, Happ, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jacoby Ellsbury will all be off the books before those young players start making serious money in a few years. A lot of payroll space will open up between now and then. And fourth, the Yankees can afford to pay those guys and others! I know this because once upon a time they had to pay Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Bernie Williams, and Jorge Posada. They did that and still had money left over for Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, and others. Crazy, I know. The “don’t spend now because you might have to spend later” logic floating around is highly flawed. Highly flawed and also didn’t we do this already the last few years? Don’t spend money this offseason because Machado and Harper will be free agents in a few years? Yeah, that really worked out. Point is, don’t worry about having to pay the young guys yet. They Yankees have the financial wherewithal to make it happen. Let the Yankees win one title with this core before we worry how they’ll lock everyone up and win more championships together.

4. One last Machado/Harper thought, I promise. You know we’re going to spend the next few years (maybe even the rest of our lives!) second-guessing this offseason, right? I am certain I will take part in it, I can’t resist, but it is going to capital-S Suck. The Yankees probably won’t win the World Series in 2019. That’s because it is hard to win the World Series and only one team overcomes the longs odds to do it each year. Don’t get mad at me. That’s just reality. If the Yankees don’t win the World Series, we’re never going to hear the end of “they should’ve signed Machado or Harper!” next winter, and however many winters there are between now and the next parade. I’ll probably take part in the second-guessing so I apologize in advance. (In my defense, I am first-guessing the hell out of it.) Heck, even if the Yankees do win the World Series this year, there will still probably be some complaints about not signing Machado or Harper because those two would give them better chances of repeating in 2020. The only good outcome here is the Yankees winning the World Series and Machado and Harper both having poor years. That is the only scenario in which there will be no second-guessing among fans and the media and whoever else. I know it’s coming and I dread it because it is inescapable. Some things can be easily ignored. This will not be one of them.

5. The Yankees signed Didi Gregorius to a one-year contract worth $11.75M prior to the arbitration salary filing deadline last week. That is a touch below his $12.4M projected salary. A few weeks ago I said the most likely outcome was a one-year deal at the projected salary or thereabouts, and that’s exactly what happened. Go me. Anyway, the question now is what’s next? Brian Cashman says the Yankees want to sign Gregorius long-term. Does that mean they’ll try to hammer out an extension as quickly as possible? Or do the Yankees want to wait until Sir Didi returns from Tommy John surgery so they know exactly what they’re getting into? I wouldn’t blame them one bit for waiting. That said, working out an extension now might be their only way to get some sort of injury-related discount. It is possible to sign Gregorius now without changing his luxury tax number for the coming season. I explained it last year. As long as the extension doesn’t kick in until next year, Gregorius will still count as $11.75M against the luxury tax this year. There’s a way to build in short-term luxury tax relief. I’m more interested in the process behind signing Didi than the luxury tax terms. I’m sick of talking about the luxury tax. Will the Yankees sign him now or nah? That’s all I’m curious to know. Now that Gregorius has his $11.75M salary for the coming season locked in, I think he might be more willing to wait out his rehab and show he’s healthy before agreeing to a new deal. Even with free agency being what it is nowadays, he should do pretty well on the open market next winter. Now that he has more security, Didi can be patient. The Yankees probably missed their best chance to get him signed long-term to a below-market rate due to the injury.

6. The Kyler Murray situation is pretty fascinating. The short version: The A’s selected Murray ninth overall in last year’s draft and gave him a $4.66M signing bonus after he said he would play baseball full-time. Then he went back to Oklahoma this past fall, broke out as a football prospect and won the Heisman Trophy, and now he’s trying to leverage a potential NFL career into a larger MLB contract. Good for him. The Athletics and MLB sent people to talk to Murray this past weekend and apparently Oakland was given the okay to offer him a Major League contract, meaning he gets more money and goes on the 40-man roster. Teams can not give draftees Major League contracts anymore, and there are rules forbidding teams from promising draftees another contract down the road. In Murray’s case, MLB believes the A’s did not promise him anything following the draft last summer. He said he would play baseball, then he raised his football stock and the NFL became a legitimate option. Since MLB is allowing this, other draftees could try it I suppose, but how many MLB draft picks have a chance to go in the first round of the NFL draft like Murray? Pretty much none. Murray is a big time outlier. Hopefully this is a wake up call for MLB and they allow teams to increase their draft spending to ensure the best athletes play baseball. MLB shouldn’t lose talent to other sports. I’m sure MLB won’t change a damn thing because owners are doing everything they can to reduce spending, but hopefully something happens. Also, if I were Murray, I’d totally go to the NFL unless the A’s pony up a nice contract (the Scott Kingery extension maybe?). The final pick in the first round of last year’s NFL draft walked away with $9.47M. Murray has to repay the A’s part of the $4.66M bonus should he choose the NFL, but, as long as he’s drafted before the middle of the second round — most NFL mock drafts have him as a late first rounder right now — he’ll break even. Then, in three years, he can negotiate a new contract with his NFL team. From what I understand, even crummy quarterbacks get paid well after three years as long as they’re young. Hopefully Murray and the A’s can work out a deal and he can remain in baseball. Financially, the NFL makes much more sense in the short-term. That first big MLB payday is so far away between the minors and pre-arbitration years.

7. One of the best things the MLBPA can do between now and the next round of Collective Bargaining Agreement talks is get fans on their side. They have three seasons and two offseasons to do it and it will be close to impossible. Generally speaking, fans have no sympathy for the millionaire ballplayers who are making fewer millions than they did a couple of years ago. I totally get it. I also think there’s a chance for the MLBPA to get fans on their side in the coming years. Maybe I’m naive. I don’t think this would ever happen, but imagine a world where Clayton Kershaw rips the Dodgers publicly for cutting payroll. “We lost back-to-back World Series and we play in Los Angeles, why are we worried about the luxury tax?” Think that would energize fans? Now imagine Judge or CC Sabathia doing something similar. Or Kris Bryant. What if Felix Hernandez were to say the Mariners should be embarrassed for wasting his prime and starting another rebuild? Dallas Keuchel said he was disappointed the Astros didn’t get anyone at the 2017 trade deadline, and, last week, Jake Arrieta warned young players that they’re next in line to get screwed over by ownership. Maybe players speaking out against the front office and ownership isn’t as far-fetched as it seems. I sure do think it would help endear the players to fans. I think there’s a lot of frustration in baseball right now. The players are definitely angry their salaries are being cut. There are also a lot of fans upset their teams are not signing players or, in some cases, aren’t even trying to be competitive. More than one-third of the league is tanking or rebuilding or whatever you want to call it. Casual fans don’t care about rebuilds or five-year plans. They want a competitive baseball team. Instead, there are more meaningless games now than maybe ever before. Big name players calling out the front office and ownership for not doing more to field a competitive team — and calling out MLB for allowing it as well — could equal more fan support for the MLBPA going into the next round of CBA talks. Maybe that fan support means nothing and has no tangible impact. Or maybe it changes everything because MLB realizes winning back fans won’t be easy after years of at best ignoring and at worst endorsing teams not making an effort to be competitive. I’d like to think MLB will be held accountable at some point for turning a blind eye to owners turning their teams into get rich quick schemes with no regard for competitive integrity. The MLBPA is the only entity with the power to do that. Any support fans give them will be a plus, but the players will have to earn it.

Zach Britton brought his four-seamer back last year, but is there anything to it?

January 15, 2019 by Mike

Coming into the offseason it was a matter of “when” the Yankees would add bullpen help, not “if.” David Robertson and Zach Britton both became free agents after the season and reports indicated the Yankees wanted to add two relievers to replace them. Makes sense, right?

So far the Yankees have added one reliever. They re-signed Britton last week to a unique contact. Britton and his turbosinker rejoin Dellin Betances and Chad Green as Aroldis Chapman’s primary setup crew. Three different looks there. Betances is just overwhelming. Green gives you straight gas. Britton is a ground ball machine.

Once upon a time Britton was a starting pitcher with a four-pitch mix. He threw four-seam fastballs and the sinker, plus a slider and a changeup. Then he scrapped the slider and went with a curveball. Once he moved into relief, Britton became a sinker/curveball guy. It’s more like SINKER/curveball. Look at this:

Like most guys Britton shelved his third and fourth pitches after moving into the bullpen. In his case, he has a dominant sinker, so he just throws it over and over and over again, with enough curveballs to keep hitters honest. Look at that graph again though. Notice anything? There’s a little bump in four-seamers late in 2018.

Britton, for whatever reason, threw some four-seam fastballs late last season with the Yankees. They were the first four-seamers he’d thrown since 2014. Here, for the sake of having a visual, is one of those four-seam fastballs:

Yep, that is a four-seam fastball, not a diving sinker. The question now is why? Why did Britton start throwing four-seam fastballs for the first time in four years last season? This is what we know:

1. He didn’t use it often. First and foremost, we’re talking about a very small sample size here. Ten four-seam fastballs total. Britton threw 475 pitches as a Yankee last season, postseason included, and ten were four-seamers. That is nothing. They are the first four-seamers Britton threw in four years though. That suggests there was something more to it than randomness.

2. There’s nothing special about the spin. The Yankees love spin rate. In Britton’s case, those ten four-seamers he threw did not show surprising spin. They averaged 2,168 rpm — the top spin rate recorded was 2,349 rpm, but none of the other four-seamers checked it at over 2,227 rpm — which is below the 2,263 rpm league average. It’s not like Britton had this high-spin four-seamer in his back pocket the entire time and the Yankees decided to unleash it. That would’ve been fun.

3. He only used it when behind in the count. This seems notable. Britton threw those ten four-seamers only when he was behind in the count. In get-me-over situations, basically. Here is the four-seamer by count breakdown:

1-0 count: One
2-0 count: Two
2-1 count: One
3-0 count: Three
3-1 count: Two
3-2 count: One

Furthermore, Britton only used the four-seamer in situations where he really needed to make a pitch to get back into the count. That four-seamer in the GIF above? Britton threw it in a 3-0 count leading off the seventh inning in a tie game. The remaining nine four-seamers came with men on base. They were “throw a strike, stupid” situations.

4. He used it mostly against the Red Sox. Coincidence? Maybe! Eight of those ten four-seamers came in three different outings against the Red Sox. Britton threw one four-seamer to Derek Dietrich (the GIF above) and one to Ronny Rodriguez of the Tigers. The other eight were thrown to Red Sox. Hmmm.

There are a few possible explanations here. One, randomness. Baseball is weird sometimes. Two, Britton has faced the Red Sox so many times over the years that he’s looking for ways to change the scouting report and continue getting outs. It’s a game of adjustments, after all. And three, the Yankees and Britton knew they’d have to go through the Red Sox in the ALDS, so they planted some seeds, and gave Red Sox hitters something to think about. Shrugs.

* * *

We can’t make any conclusions based on ten pitches so I am declaring Britton’s four-seam fastball usage a #thingtowatch. We’ll see if he sticks with it. My hunch is he used the four-seamer on days he couldn’t control his sinker. Remember all those walk problems he had following the Achilles surgery? Given the fact he only used the four-seamer when behind in the count, I’m inclined to believe he turned to it only when he wasn’t confident he could throw that moving sinker for a strike.

Perhaps the Yankees and Britton will stick with the four-seamer, just to give him another weapon and keep opposing hitters on their toes. We saw David Robertson throw a two-seamer at times last year and also mix in a few sliders. Veteran pitchers make adjustments and it could be Britton’s four-seamer is his attempt to remain dominant. For now, the sudden four-seam usage is something that happened and is worth monitoring. It’s too early to know whether it’ll make a meaningful difference on the field.

LeMahieu is an okay backup plan, but the Yankees are betting big on Andujar improving defensively

January 15, 2019 by Mike

Barring a total surprise, the Yankees will not sign free agent wunderkind Manny Machado. Negotiations between the two sides are said to be “either dormant or completely dead,” and gosh, that sure sounds bad. I won’t rule the Yankees out completely on Machado (or Bryce Harper) until they sign with another team. Things don’t look good right now though.

Rather than spend on Machado, the Yankees are taking a league minimum flier on Troy Tulowitzki, and they signed DJ LeMahieu to be a veteran insurance policy. Should Tulowitzki get hurt or underperform, LeMahieu will take over at second with Gleyber Torres sliding over to short. If Tulowitzki actually works out, LeMahieu will assume the Neil Walker role and move all around.

Passing on Machado indicates the Yankees are committed to Miguel Andujar at third base. Sure, they could play LeMahieu at the hot corner, but I don’t think that’s the plan. I think Andujar is going to receive a legitimate chance to remain at third base. Here’s something Buster Olney (subs. req’d) wrote over the weekend:

Andujar’s consistently strong effort instills confidence within the Yankees organization that he will benefit from his offseason program and improve his defense. He has worked extensively with instructors this winter, and in the past few days, Yankees manager Aaron Boone was in the Dominican Republic, partly to see Andujar’s progress and spend time with him.

Last month Erik Boland noted Andujar had spent time in Tampa to work with infield instructor Carlos Mendoza. “He came down for a few days a couple of weeks ago. We always talk about his work ethic, and the fact that it’s the offseason and he’s already working at his craft, not just physically but baseball-wise,” Mendoza said.

Work ethic won’t be an issue with Andujar. He’s always been regarded as a hard-worker — the guy takes more pregame grounders than any player I’ve ever seen in my few years as a BBWAA member — and if this third base thing doesn’t work out, it’ll be because he lacks the skills and refinement. Not because he didn’t try hard enough. That’s good. Effort and commitment are necessary to get better.

The Yankees sent Andujar home this winter with a workout plan designed to improve his first step and internal clock. Those are the top priorities. Andujar was sometimes a little slow to react to the ball off the bat and he sometimes took a little too much time getting the ball over to first base. We saw a few too many double-clutches last year. That has to improve. Speeding everything up is the top priority.

“What we’re focusing on right now is his pre-pitch setup,” Mendoza added. “We’re trying to put him in the best position so he can react at contact. Making sure that he finds a spot where he’s comfortable on his setup so he can have a better first step, a better read on the ball to create better angles. It starts with his setup and his ready position.”

As good as Andujar was last season — I get a ton of mailbag questions about trading him each week, but it wasn’t long ago that folks around these parts were irate Miggy didn’t win Rookie of the Year — it would’ve been very easy for the Yankees to replace him this winter. Trade Andujar for a pitcher, sign Machado or someone else to play third, and move forward. Heck, even now they could trade Andujar and install LeMahieu at third base (or Gleyber?) full-time, and markedly improve their infield defense.

Instead, it appears the Yankees have doubled down on Andujar at third base, and that makes me happy. I’ve been an Andujar guy for a very long time, you know that if you’ve been reading RAB long enough, and I’m glad the Yankees are seem poised to give him another at third base. It would’ve been easy (and justifiable!) to move him elsewhere. Instead, he gets another chance. I like that they’re showing some confidence in him.

Now, that said, the Yankees did remove Andujar for defensive purposes in the sixth inning (!) last postseason, and I imagine LeMahieu will replace him in the late innings of most games this year. In fact, I’d bet on LeMahieu being CC Sabathia’s personal third baseman this year given all the weak contact he generates to the left side of the infield by pitching righties inside with this cutter. Walker was Sabathia’s personal third baseman for that reason last year.

LeMahieu gives the Yankees a safety net in case Andujar’s glovework doesn’t improve but he is not a long-term solution at third base. At least he shouldn’t be. Machado would’ve been a long-term solution at third base, assuming the Yankees do sign Didi Gregorius long-term. With no Machado, Andujar will — and should — get every opportunity to show he can be the long-term third baseman. The Yankees don’t have another option. It’s Andujar or no one.

On one hand, that’s kinda scary. Andujar might never be even average at third. On the other, if you’re not going to be patient and give talented and dedicated kids a chance to prove you wrong, you’ll never develop players. Machado would be a great addition. I’d take him in a heartbeat. The Yankees probably won’t sign Machado though, and the next best thing is giving Andujar a chance to show he’s improved, with LeMahieu around as a backup plan.

“It’s not that he wants to be good, he wants to be great,” said Mendoza. “That’s the reason he’s doing what he’s doing. He wants to continue to get better. He’s always looking for the details. ‘How can I improve here? How can I improve there?’ That’s what makes him special.”

Breaking down Luis Severino’s pending arbitration case

January 15, 2019 by Mike

Late last week the annual salary arbitration filing deadline came and went across baseball. The Yankees had a very large arbitration class this offseason. Nine players combined for $53.2M in projected salary. The Yankees agreed to a one-year contract for 2019 with eight of those nine players. Those eight players combine for $45.4625M in actual salary, below their $48.1M projected salaries.

The one arbitration-eligible player the Yankees could not sign before the deadline: Luis Severino. Severino is one of 15 arbitration-eligible players who did not agree to a contract before the deadline and he is hardly the biggest name. Nolan Arenado, Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, Aaron Nola, and Blake Treinen also failed to come to a contract agreement with their teams. Arenado is seeking a whopping $30M. Arenado winning his case would change the arbitration salary scale entirely.

It is important to note that, just because they didn’t get a deal done before the filing deadline, the Yankees and Severino can still agree to a contract of any size. They could hammer out a six-year extension tomorrow. That said, many teams are “trial and file” these days, meaning once the two sides file salary figures, the team cuts off contract talks and they go to a hearing. It’s designed to put pressure on the player. All indications are the Yankees and Severino are heading to a hearing.

Arbitration hearings take place throughout February. Each side gets up in front of the three-person arbitration panel and defends their salary filing number. It can get ugly. Teams will detail the player’s shortcomings in an effort to save money. Remember when Randy Levine said Dellin Betances didn’t have closer stats? Like that. Things can get heated. After the hearing the panel will pick either the player’s salary number or the team’s salary number. Nothing in between.

Severino filed for a $5.25M salary with the league. The Yankees countered with $4.4M. That is an $850,000 gap. It doesn’t sound like much, and I guess it isn’t, but remember arbitration raises are based on the previous year’s salary. That $850,000 difference this year means several million dollars are on the line during Severino’s four arbitration years as a Super Two. If Severino wins, his base salaries are higher going forward, which equals more total dollars.

Since the Yankees and Severino appeared headed to an arbitration hearing, I figured it was worth looking at recent starting pitchers who went through the process in their first year of arbitration-eligibility as a Super Two. Arbitration is based on comparables. This player at the same service time level as me received that salary, so I deserve more. That’s arbitration, basically. Find comparable players and base your argument around that player’s salary.

Over the last five years 20 starting pitchers went through the arbitration process for the first time as a Super Two. Only seven of them made it as far as filing salary figures and five went to a hearing. (Teams won three of those five hearings.) Here are those 20 pitchers and their arbitration details:

	Year	Salary	Player Filed	Team Filed
Jacob deGrom	2017	$4.05M
Mike Minor	2014	$3.85M
Trevor Bauer	2017	$3.55M
Kevin Gausman (settled)	2017	$3.45M	$3.55M	$3.15M
Marcus Stroman (won hearing)	2017	$3.4M	$3.4M	$3.1M
Matt Shoemaker	2017	$3.325M
Garrett Richards (settled)	2015	$3.2M	$3.8M	$2.4M
Noah Syndergaard	2018	$2.975M
Tommy Milone	2015	$2.775M
Drew Smyly	2015	$2.65M
Lance McCullers Jr.	2018	$2.45M
Chase Anderson (lost hearing)	2017	$2.45M	$2.85M	$2.45M
Vance Worley (won hearing)	2015	$2.45M	$2.45M	$2M
Eduardo Rodriguez	2018	$2.375M
James Paxton	2017	$2.35M
Carlos Rodon	2018	$2.3M
Taijuan Walker (lost hearing)	2017	$2.25M	$2.6M	$2.25M
Mike Foltynewicz (lost hearing)	2018	$2.2M	$2.3M	$2.2M
Tyson Ross	2014	$1.98M
Andrew Heaney	2018	$0.8M

Yes, the Braves really took Foltynewicz to an arbitration hearing over $100,000. And yes, Heaney really did earn only $800,000 in his first year of arbitration-eligibility as a Super Two. That’s because he missed a whole bunch of time with Tommy John surgery and had only 162.2 career innings under his belt when he qualified for arbitration.

Anyway, one thing stands out right away: Severino is going to become the highest paid first year Super Two starting pitcher regardless of whether he wins or loses his hearing. deGrom’s $4.05M salary in 2017 is the highest ever for a first year Super Two starter. The Yankees filed a $4.4M salary. They’re already willing to make Severino the highest paid first year Super Two starter ever. Severino wants to shatter the record though.

Furthermore, the Yankees are willing to make Severino the second highest paid starting pitcher in his first year of arbitration-eligibility overall, Super Two or otherwise. Here are the three largest first year arbitration salaries for starting pitchers:

Dallas Keuchel: $7.25M in 2016
Dontrelle Willis: $4.35M in 2006
Tanner Roark: $4.315M in 2017

Quite a collection of names, eh? Willis rather amazingly held the first year arbitration salary record for starting pitchers for a decade, until Keuchel smashed it in the offseason immediately following his Cy Young award. The Yankees filed $4.4M. They’re just above Willis, so they’re willing to pay Severino more than any starting pitcher in his first year of arbitration-eligibility, Super Two or otherwise, except Keuchel, who had a Cy Young.

The way I see it, we only have three good comparables for Severino: deGrom, Keuchel, Roark. That’s pretty much it. Willis is too far in the past and none of the other first year Super Two starters are over $4M. Here are the side-by-side numbers going into that first year of arbitration-eligibility:

	deGrom	Keuchel	Roark	Severino
Service time	2.139	3.089	3.055	2.170
W-L	30-22 (.577)	41-35 (.539)	42-28 (.600)	41-25 (.621)
Innings	479.1	671	573.1	518
ERA	2.74	3.58	3.01	3.51
ERA+	137	110	132	125
FIP	2.88	3.67	3.73	3.38
K%	25.6	18.8	18.1	26.9
BB%	6.1	6.8	6.4	6.8
HR/9	0.71	0.83	0.80	1.04
fWAR	+11.8	+10.0	+7.7	+12.7
bWAR	+11.8	+11.3	+13	+11.8
All-Star Games	1	1	0	2
Cy Young finishes	7th	1st	10th	3rd, 9th
Other awards	ROY	2 GG, 5th in MVP	none	none

Huh, who knew Roark was that good early in his career? deGrom is, clearly, a cut above the rest when it comes to run prevention. He also had a Rookie of the Year award. Keuchel had way more innings under his belt than the other three and also the most hardware between the Cy Young, the fifth place finish in the MVP voting, and two Gold Gloves. Severino has the big strikeout numbers and is the only one of those pitchers to get Cy Young votes in two different seasons, which is not nothing.

To me, it seems the Yankees filed a fair number at $4.4M. They’re a bit above deGrom, the current record for a first year Super Two starter. They’re also above Willis, the former record for a first year non-Super Two starter. For all intents and purposes, the Yankees are willing to pay Severino more than any pitcher without a Cy Young award in his first year of arbitration-eligibility. They’re definitely not lowballing him.

Severino came in at $5.25M with his filing number, which is closer to deGrom and Willis than it is Keuchel. It is also approximately 20% more than any non-Keuchel first year arbitration-eligible starting pitcher. Is that too big an ask? That’s what the Yankees will argue. It’s too much. Look at the numbers. Why does Severino deserve that much more than deGrom at the same point in his career? It seems to me the Yankees will have an easier time defending their $4.4M number than Severino will his $5.25M number.

The Yankees have gone to three arbitration hearings this century and they won all three. They beat Mariano Rivera in 2000, Chien-Ming Wang in 2008, and Dellin Betances in 2017. Arbitration can be a painful process but it doesn’t have to create bad blood. The Yankees took Rivera, Bernie Williams, and Derek Jeter to hearings back in the day and they all lived happily ever after. Hopefully the Yankees and Severino can work out a deal before a hearing. If not, it’s not the end of the world, even if it looks like the Yankees are positioned well to secure another arbitration win.

Former Yankees ace, pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre passes away at 77

January 14, 2019 by Mike

Longtime Yankees ace and pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre passed away Sunday near his home in Seattle following a long battle with bone marrow cancer. He was 77.

Yankees chairman Hal Steinbrenner issued the following statement earlier today:

“Beyond his tremendous accomplishments as a player and coach, Mel Stottlemyre was beloved for his class, dignity and fighting spirit. His contributions to different eras in our history guided us through difficult times and brought us some of our greatest all-time success. As a result, Mel’s popularity transcended generations, all of whom thought of him as their own. His plaque in Monument Park will forever serve to celebrate the significance of his legacy.

“His passing is a tremendous loss to the Yankees and all those in the baseball community, and we extend our deepest condolences to Mel’s wife, Jean, and the entire Stottlemyre family.”

Stottlemyre, a right-handed pitcher, joined the Yankees at age 22 in 1964. He emerged as the team’s best starting pitcher in 1965 and served as the staff ace during the franchise’s lean years from 1965-74. Stottlemyre was part of the 1964 AL pennant-winning team as a rookie, but never returned to the postseason as a player.

In parts of eleven big league seasons Stottlemyre went 164-139 with a 2.97 ERA before shoulder trouble forced him into retirement. He was selected to five All-Star Games and received MVP votes in four different seasons. Stottlemyre fell off the Hall of Fame ballot in 1980, his first year of eligibility. He spent his entire playing career with the Yankees.

Following his playing career, Stottlemyre jumped into the minor league coaching ranks with the Mariners, and eventually worked his way up to the big leagues. He served as pitching coach with the Mets (1984-93), Astros (1994-95), Yankees (1996-2005), and Mariners (2008). Stottlemyre won World Series rings with the 1986 Mets as well as the 1996 and 1998-2000 Yankees.

In 2015, the Yankees surprised Stottlemyre at Old Timers’ Day and announced he would be honored with a plaque in Monument Park. It was a very touching moment and ceremony. Here’s the video:

Stottlemyre is survived by his wife, Jean, and his two sons, Mel Jr. and Todd, both of whom pitched in the big leagues. He had a third son, Jason, who died of leukemia of 1981. Longtime RAB guest poster Adam Moss posted a tribute to Stottlemyre over at his site, so make sure you check that out.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Gray, Davis, Liberatore, Britton

January 14, 2019 by Mike

With roughly four weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report to Tampa, the Yankees very well might be done with their offseason shopping. Another reliever would be cool. Would it surprise anyone if the Yankees don’t do anything between now and Spring Training though? I didn’t think so. Anyway, here are the latest offseason rumblings.

Talks with Machado are “either dormant or completely dead”

As expected, talks between the Yankees and Manny Machado are “either dormant or completely dead,” reports Buster Olney (subs. req’d). That seemed to be the case even before the DJ LeMahieu signing last week. Also, Andy Martino says Machado will sign with the highest bidder. He won’t take a discount to join the Yankees or any other team. That qualifies as a great big “no duh” in my book.

As long as Machado (and Bryce Harper) remains a free agent, there’s a chance the Yankees will sign him. A very small chance — I mean, they keep signing players to play Machado’s position, so yeah — but a chance nonetheless. Part of me hopes the Yankees are playing it unbelievably quiet with Harper and will pounce when the time is right a la Mark Teixeira during the 2008-09 offseason. I doubt it’ll happen. I just hope it does. What a bummer this all is.

Gray talks beginning to “ramp up”

Now that CC Sabathia can resume baseball activities, Sonny Gray trade talks are beginning to “ramp up,” according to Jon Heyman. There are at least six teams involved. The Reds are presumably one. Recent reports indicate the Brewers and Padres are in the mix as well. The Athletics, Mariners, Braves, Twins, and Rangers had interest in Gray earlier this offseason. Which teams are still involved? Your guess is as good as mine.

The Yankees signed Gray to a one-year deal worth $7.5M last week, avoiding arbitration. That is quite a bit lower than his projected $9.1M salary. That is good for the Yankees no matter what. He’s cheaper in the unlikely event they keep him, and he’s more affordable for potential trade partners. The $1.6M difference between projected salary and actual salary could be a pretty big deal to small market teams. Anyway, the trade countdown continues.

Yankees will attend showcase for Davis, Liberatore

The Yankees are among the teams expected to attend a free agent showcase event for righty Rookie Davis and lefty Adam Liberatore later this month, reports Emily Waldon. The event is planned for January 31st in Raleigh, North Carolina. Davis, as I’m sure you know, is an original Yankees’ draft pick (14th round in 2011) who went to the Reds in the Aroldis Chapman trade a few years back. Cincinnati cut him loose earlier this winter.

Davis, 25, made the Reds’ 2017 Opening Day rotation and allowed 25 runs and 53 baserunners in 24 innings. He threw only 26.1 minor league innings last year following offseason hip surgery and a setback. The 31-year-old Liberatore spent a few years as an up-and-down reliever with the Dodgers, throwing 88.2 innings with a 3.55 ERA (3.25 FIP) from 2015-18. Los Angeles released him in August to clear a roster spot for Ryan Madson. No harm in attending a showcase. Bringing Davis back and reviving his career would be pretty cool.

Britton gets $1M bonus if traded

According to Ron Blum, Zach Britton’s new contract does not include a no-trade clause, but he will receive a $1M assignment bonus the first time he is traded. The Yankees used to give out no-trade clauses like candy. That is no longer the case. Now they give out these $1M trade bonuses. Chase Headley had one in his contract — the Padres and Yankees split the $1M payment — and Brett Gardner had one in his last contract too. Now Britton has one.

The Yankees gave Troy Tulowitzki a full no-trade clause that is inconsequential given his league minimum salary. If they need to unload him, they’ll just release him and eat the money. No big deal. It seems unlikely to me the Yankees will trade Britton at some point in the next few years, but hey, you never know. Maybe things don’t work out a la Sonny Gray, or the Yankees need payroll flexibility, or use Britton as part of a blockbuster. Whatever it is, these $1M trade bonuses are the new thing, it seems.

Update: Yankees sign DJ LeMahieu to two-year deal, designate Tim Locastro for assignment

January 14, 2019 by Mike

January 14th: It is a done deal. The Yankees announced LeMahieu’s two-year contract this afternoon. Tim Locastro was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot, the team says. Locastro came over from the Dodgers in a minor trade earlier this offseason. Decent chance he clears waivers and remains in the organization as a non-40-man roster player.

January 11th: The Yankees have a new veteran infielder and it is not Manny Machado. According to multiple reports, the Yankees have agreed to a two-year contract with DJ LeMahieu. It’ll pay him $24M and the Yankees are expected to use him at first base, second base, and third base. The Neil Walker role, basically.

LeMahieu, 30, is a natural second baseman and an excellent one at that. He is a legitimate Gold Glove caliber defender and lordy did the Yanks need to improve their infield defense. This accomplishes that to some degree. LeMahieu has a little experience at first (13 innings) and third (245 innings) bases, so they won’t be completely new to him, which I guess is good.

As with every Rockies player, the question is how much will he hit outside the Coors Field? There is evidence of a Coors Field hangover because coming down from altitude requires an adjustment, so you can’t really take a dude’s road numbers and declare that the real him. That is overly simplistic. Here are the numbers, for what they’re worth:

LeMahieu at Coors Field: .329/.386/.447 (96 wRC+)
LeMahieu everywhere else: .267/.314/.367 (84 wRC+)

Jeff Sullivan wrote a post a few weeks ago looking at LeMahieu. Long story short, he’s posted sneaky great exit velocities while managing an elite contact rate. LeMahieu rarely strikes out and he absolutely wears out right field as a right-handed hitter, so much so that teams sometimes use no left fielder and two right fielders against him. If nothing else, he brings a very different offensive look to the lineup.

The Yankees now have LeMahieu, Troy Tulowitzki, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar for the non-first base infield positions. Tulowitzki figures to get regular days off given his injury history, so LeMahieu will get playing time that way. I also have to think he’ll be Andujar’s late-inning defensive replacement at third base. LeMahieu’s going to get 450+ plate appearances next season. You watch.

Based on my quick math, the LeMahieu signing pushes the luxury tax payroll to roughly $222M, so the Yankees are now well above the $206M threshold. Even if the Yankees trade Sonny Gray and his entire projected $9.1M salary, they’ll still be over the threshold. Imagine going over the threshold to sign LeMahieu but not Machado? Oy vey. Maybe they have another signing (Adam Ottavino?) coming.

At this point there doesn’t seem to be much remaining on the offseason to-do list. Another reliever would be nice. Otherwise the Yankees are more or less set going into Spring Training. Will they splurge for Machado or Harper? The LeMahieu signing all but confirms a no for Machado. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for Harper either.