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Colon & Garcia’s Opt-Out Dates

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We’ve known for a while that both Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon have the ability to become free agents if they don’t make the Yankees out of Spring Training, but now we have some actual dates thanks to Ken Rosenthal. Garcia can opt out of his minor league deal on March 29th (next Tuesday) while Colon can do so on Opening Day, March 31st (next Thursday). If the Yankees plan on releasing Sergio Mitre, they’ll have to do it before March 28th (next Monday) to avoid paying him his full season salary ($900,000). In that case they’d only owe him 45 days termination pay.

I suspect the opt-outs won’t be that big of a deal, the Yankees are going to need to make a decision about the fourth and fifth starters very soon, by the end of the weekend at the latest simply because there are only so many games left in Spring Training. They need to start lining guys up and stretching everyone out to maximum capacity.

Handicapping the back-of-the-rotation battle

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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

The regular season is now just ten sleeps away, but the Yankees have yet to announce who will serve as the their fourth and fifth starters at least at the outset of the season. I think we all expect the team to go out and get someone via trade at some point during the season, but for now, these guys will have to do. Given what we’ve seen in Spring Training, not necessarily in statistical performance but how they’ve looked on the mound, let’s slap some odds on each guy’s likelihood of breaking camp with the big boys cracking the rotation …

Ivan Nova (Odds: 3-2)
Nova’s case for a rotation spot started last September, when he was serviceable (4.50 ERA, 4.36 FIP) in seven starts and did no worse than earn himself a long look in camp. He’s toying with a new slider and stands out from the pack for no other reason than because he’s not some retread. Nova’s a homegrown guy and those are easy to like, but his limited exposure in the show will work against him. That and the fact that he has two minor league options remaining, since the team could safely stash him in Triple-A and then summon him at a moment’s notice. My guess is that he starts the season in the rotation, but who am I to say?

Freddy Garcia (Odds: 5-1)
The favorite for a job coming into a camp, Garcia is having one of his trademark awful springs at a time when he really can’t afford to. Ben chronicled the problem with Garcia last night, though he has one thing on just about all the other rotation candidates: a recent history of staying on the mound. He threw 157 innings with the White Sox last year, and although they weren’t high quality innings, they were innings nonetheless. Reliability counts, even in tiny little amounts.

Bartolo Colon (Odds: 10-1)
Perhaps the surprise of Spring Training so far as been Colon, who’s come out of the gate throwing 94 four-seamers and sinking his two-seamer against both lefties and righties. He’s also featured some kind of offspeed pitch, probably a splitter but more of a junkball, that has kept hitters off balance. Remember, Colon was pitching in winter ball just a few weeks before camp opened, so he’s (theoretically) ahead of the other guys and his stuff could just be a mirage. Once he steps on the mound in meaningful games against hitters with something more than tee-times on their minds, chances are this story will take a turn for the worst. Regardless, he hasn’t hurt his chances this month.

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Sergio Mitre (Odds: 100-1)
Beset by an oblique issue, albeit slightly, Mitre hasn’t really gotten into this competition all that much. He’s started just one game in camp with three other long-relief appearances, and part of that is a function of there being only so many starts to go around, but you’d have to think he’d be getting a longer look if he was a legit candidate (Nova, Colon, and Garcia have each thrown at least five more innings in actual games this spring). The Yankees know Sergio and what he’s capable of, so perhaps he isn’t as high priority as the other guys. Either way, he always seemed destined for that same long-reliever role he’s filled over the last year-and-a-half.

* * *

We’ve been playing the fourth and fifth starter guessing game pretty much all winter, so these not completely arbitrary odds are nothing more than a snapshot in time, a record of where the competition stands as of March 21st. Both Colon and Garcia have the ability to become free agents if they don’t make the team out of camp, and it would be surprising to see the Yankees squander assets like that so early in the season.

Given the propensity for injury (especially with two guys like that), it’s better to have more pitchers around anyway, even if they stick them in the bullpen for the time being. Plus the team will also get the first few weeks of the season to evaluate them a little bit further, against real big league hitters. Every little bit helps, even if these guys will (hopefully) be gone by July.

2011 Season Preview: Fourth and Fifth Starters

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As we count down the days and weeks leading up to the season, we’re going to preview the 2011 Yankees by looking at each of their core players and many, many more. A new preview will go up every day, Monday through Friday, from now until Opening Day.

The Yankees currently have a few pitchers battling for two rotation spots, but it really comes down to three. For this preview we’ll look at the trio.

Freddy Garcia

Best Case

(Dave Martin/AP)

If only this were 2007. That year Garcia’s best case scenario was a solid No. 2 pitcher. But he hurt his shoulder that year and threw just 58 innings. Since then he’s struggled to stay healthy. The ray of hope here is that he threw 157 innings last year, which is more than he threw in the previous three years combined. He also produced serviceable numbers. That leaves some room for upside projection.

Last year Garcia had to acclimate himself to life with a sub-90-mph fastball. That’s not an easy adjustment for any pitcher — we can look to Javier Vazquez as an immediate example. Now that Garcia has something of a full season under his belt with his diminished arsenal, there’s a chance he can harness it and produce better results in 2011. We’ve already seen in spring training that he’s working on all four pitches. If he mixes and matches and uses his changeup to his his advantage, there’s a good chance he can top last year’s results.

The Bill James projections have him at a 3.89 ERA — though a 4.57 FIP — through 148 innings. That seems like an aggressive forecast for even a best case. But since Garcia is nothing but a prayer anyway, let’s peg this as his best case. The chances of it happening are maybe one in 100,000, but maybe the Yanks hit the lotto.

Worst Case

The worst case with a pitcher with Garcia’s injury history always involves considerable time on the shelf. With Garcia it would probably mean getting rocked during the month of April and then getting hurt. That would inflict the maximum pain. Not only would they get just a few starts out of him, but then they’d lose the chance for him to get into a groove and compensate for those poor performances.

While Garcia looks good now, and while he pitched decently at times in 2010, he provides no guarantees for 2010. His worst case is considerable — perhaps the worst of the three, since he stands the chance to cause the most damage. He likely has a longer leash than Colon, which could backfire for the Yankees.

What’s Likely To Happen

A player with Garcia’s stuff and injury history is tough to peg for a likely case, because there’s so much room for variance. I don’t think it’s likely that he starts 28 games again this year, but the Yankees don’t necessarily need that. I also think that if he does make, say, 20 starts, that he has a few very good ones in him. So where does that leave us for a likely scenario?

I’d say that the most likely case is between 15 and 20 starts with between a 4.30 and 4.60 ERA. Garcia showed last year that he can survive with a sub-90 fastball and his arsenal of secondary pitches. This year he brings more experience to the table. I think that raises the bar, if only slightly.

Bartolo Colon

(Kathy Willens/AP)

Best Case

If Colon breaks camp with the team he will have bad games. In the best case scenario he won’t have so many of those bad games, and they’re like four innings, five runs than two innings, seven runs. There’s also the occasional start where he gets a couple of lucky hops and some solid defensive plays and keeps the other team at bay. Mix in a few five- or six-inning, two or three run performances and it becomes a decent part of a season.

How big a part of the season? Colon is 38 and hasn’t been healthy since 2005. For him to make it through May would constitute a positive outcome. That would make for something like 15 starts at a 4.50 ERA — that magic number. Not bad, not great, blows some games, makes some a little easier. Marcel has him at 66 innings and a 4.36 ERA. The Yanks will take that early in the season. It could be worse. It could be…

Worst Case

Sidney Ponson circa 2006. In 2008 he might have had a 5.85 ERA, but he also had the occasional game where he’d walk more than he struck out, but only allow two or three hits and luck his way into a win. The 2006 version of Sidney Ponson was far more putrid. His best game was his first, four runs in 6.2 IP. After that it was some of the worst pitching I’ve had to endure since the early 90s.

If, after 16.1 innings, Colon, like Ponson, has allowed 20 runs — and has an OPS allowed of .988 — then I presume the Yankees will cut him. That’s a pretty putrid case by any measure. The only way it could get worse is if they let him continue pitching. Considering the implications of doing so while competing the AL East, I have faith that they will not. Ponson’s 2006 had better be the worst case, and even then I hope they’d cut it a bit shorter.

What’s Likely To Happen

It’s no fun saying it, but the most likely case if Colon makes the team involves him pitching a few terrible starts, a few serviceable starts, and then getting hurt. No one wishes injury on the guy, but let’s be realistic. He hasn’t been healthy since 2005, and it’s highly unlikely that changes after five years of injury and inactivity.

Ivan Nova

(AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Best Case

The book on Nova is that while he pitched well last season, he struggled when facing a lineup for the third time. That’s because he relied mainly on two pitches, throwing almost two-thirds fastballs and then mostly the curveball otherwise. If he works in his changeup more, and it’s even an average offering, his upside becomes considerable. His best case would have him resembling a No. 3 pitcher.

If we’re talking about Nova’s best case, and his best case makes him a No. 3-type pitcher, then his best case also involves him breaking camp with the team, since that’s how he provides the most value. That would make his season line something along the lines of 30 GS, 190 IP, 4.00 ERA. To say that would be tremendous is an understatement.

Worst Case

Nova’s worst case involves him impressing enough in spring training that they part ways with Colon, and then he bombs to start the season. Then, after a month, he goes back to AAA and the Yankees implement a revolving door. No one works out, and Nova comes back, only to pitch poorly again.

This is the risk involved with any unproven pitcher. This scenario isn’t particularly likely, but it’s still within the realm of possibility.

What’s Likely To Happen

Right not it appears as though the Yankees will build depth and start Nova in the minors. He’ll make up it, of course, since the Yankees won’t get through 162 games with just Colon and Garcia in the 4/5 spots. What’s likely is something similar to last year, with certain improvements.

With all this in mind, I’d peg Nova’s most likely case As somewhere between his Bill James and Marcel projections. That is, a strikeout rate in the mid 6s per nine, a walk rate in the high 3s per nine, a few home runs, and an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50. That might seem like a wide range, because it is. We know little about what Nova can do in the majors, so a wide range becomes necessary.

An early glimpse at a rotation race

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Once upon a time, Yogi Berra once said of left field in Yankee Stadium that “it gets late early out there.” He was talking about the sun conditions in the outfield, but it stuck. Thirteen games into the Grapefruit League, though, it’s still early. Yet, with Opening Day looming at the end of the month, the Yanks have some rotation decisions to make.

As we well know, the Yanks are trying the kitchen sink approach to the rotation. Left high and dry when Andy Pettitte called it a career and Cliff Lee left for the museums and subways of Philadelphia, the Bombers reeled int Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon to go with Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova. The idea, as many have noted, is to somehow produce enough starts from the four of them to make the offense and bullpen do its thing. If a top-flight starter hits the market in late June or early July, so much the better.

As the early days of Spring Training melt away, it’s easy to ignore results. When Justin Maxwell and Melky Mesa are playing out half of the Yanks’ games, the final scores matter little, and the process is what informs the club. Still, as the innings start to mount, we can check in on the four starters fighting for two spots.

Leading the innings charge so far is Grapefruit Opening Day starter Bartolo Colon. The Yankees seem willing to give him as many chances as possible to fail, and while he’s pitched “the worst” of the bunch, his stuff and approach have been sound. In nine innings, he’s allowed three runs on eight hits and a walk. He is, in fact, the only one of the bunch to give up a walk, but he has responded with 12 strike outs. More importantly, he hasn’t been afraid to attack the zone. The fastball velocity isn’t where it once was, but for now, he’s been confident going after hitters.

Right behind him has been Freddy Garcia. The presumptive fourth starter has made two outings and has thrown 5 innings with a bunch of zeroes. He struck out three and gave up two hits with nothing else. There’s not much left to say about Garcia. He made 28 reasonably fine starts last year and has come out competing this spring. As “intangibles” as that sounds, he ought to make the rotation.

The other two guys — Nova and Mitre — have looked good as well. Both have thrown five innings spanning two games while giving up nary a run. Nova has K’d two while Mitre has four strike outs. As much as you can judge a bunch of pitchers through five innings, everyone has impressed.

Now, the Yankees don’t expect these guys to continue this top-flight pitching. After all, the Yanks are looking for a fourth and fifth starter and not a pair of aces. But based on what we’ve seen so far, I have no reason to believe the team’s plans have changed.

Although Colon has seemingly expressed a willingness to pitch in long relief, he and Garcia are the presumptive starters. They both have veteran experience and both can elect free agency if not chosen for the Yanks’ roster out of Spring Training. Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi can’t burn their pitching depth before April, and the folks after Nova and Mitre on the depth charts aren’t quite ready for regular Major League action. Early on, the script is playing out as written.

Who’s got two thumbs and is excited for the next Colon start?

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Why, this guy, of course.

When I wrote last night about the inaccuracies of the Yankee stadium subway race, a few readers questioned the post. Although it was labeled whimsy and although it’s the slow days of mid-Spring Training, how dare we have fun. Instead, because the Internet is Serious Business™, we should only focus on serious things such as the Yanks’ dearth of pitchers. In reply, I promised a post with just this title, so here we go.

Later tonight, for the second time this spring Bartolo Colon, all 265 pounds of him, will take the mound for his second attempt at impressing the Yanks. And honestly, I’m legitimately excited. It’s not that Colon is that compelling a storyline by itself, but the game is a Friday night affair against the Red Sox. It’s on the YES Network and the MLB Network, and both Mark Prior and Manny Banuelos will get innings as well. That’s reason to sit through some Colon pitches.

So far, it’s early. We can’t say for sure which Yankee pitchers are getting rotation spots, but we can handicap the race. Through six games, Colon is the only guy competing for a starting rotation job to give up any runs. Yet, outside of two Ivan Nova appearances, no pitcher has more than a pair of innings under his belt. It’s tough to draw any conclusions from the early goings. That said, it certainly seems as though a race is taking shape, and it will inform the way we view Spring Training over the next few weeks.

On Thursday, Freddy Garcia took the hill for his first outing of the spring. As the Yanks had run through their rotation candidates, it seemed as though Garcia was playing the part of the forgotten man. What is happening though is that he’s playing the part of the almost sure thing. The Yankees are going to give Garcia every opportunity to lose a rotation spot, and as long as he’s serviceable, he’ll be the club’s fourth starter.

Garcia knows that too. While speaking with reporters after the game, the right-hander put the onus on him to pitch as though he belongs. “I’m watching,” he said of the rotation race, “but I don’t really think about it because if I lose that spot, that’s my fault. I wish them good luck; hopefully everybody pitches good. But at the end of the day I’ll be the one [to blame] if I lose that spot.”

Ivan Nova to the rescue.

Meanwhile, as Marc Carig noted, Nova drew some raves as well. He relieved Garcia and threw three scoreless frames. Of his 35 pitches, 22 went for strikes, and although he gave up a hit per inning, he kept Tampa Bay off the board. The Yankees like his composure and like his stuff. Right now, he’s edging ahead of Bartolo Colon for that fifth spot.

Of course, Colon could turn that around tonight with a strong outing. He’ll get three or even four innings to show something, and the Yanks will begin to see what his fastball and stamina looks like as he works deeper into a game. Colon, as we know, hasn’t pitched in the Majors since 2009, and he remains a long shot to make the team.

Ultimately, though, for the Yanks, the decision will have to be one of depth. If the Yanks jettison Colon before Opening Day, he won’t be around to spell anyone in the rotation should someone get hurt or should Nova fail to make it through the lineup three times. After Nova, the depth turns into Sergio Mitre and a bunch of kids with limited AAA experience. If the Yanks tab Colon for the rotation and he falters, all that’s lost is a few games, and then Nova gets his shot. The Yanks have to make their pick their poison before the month is out, and as the innings mount, Colon might have to play catch up to keep himself in the race.

Heyman: Garcia likely No. 4, No. 5 “wide open”

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The most peculiar aspect of the Yankees’ rotation battle this spring is that no candidate stands out. The contestants are either flawed veterans — Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon — or unproven youngsters — Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Andrew Brackman, etc. This leaves the Yankees with some tough decisions. One of them, though, might be made already.

This morning SI’s Jon Heyman reported that Garcia “has a leg up” on the No. 4 starer job. That would mean he’s a leg up on everyone, since he’d have to fall into the No. 5 spot before falling out of the race completely. When the Yankees signed Garcia, I assumed he’d win one of those spots out of spring training. He’s an experienced veteran who pitched serviceably last year, even with diminished stuff. Even though he came to camp on a minor league deal, I was confident of seeing him pitch in pinstripes this April.

While Garcia might already have an assumed spot in the rotation, apparently the Yanks are being a bit more tight-lipped about the last spot. Heyman calls the the competition “wide open,” but I think the Yanks have a good idea of what they’re doing there. They have a few young guys, but perhaps none quite as ready for the bigs as Ivan Nova. Brackman and Phelps would be nice options, but I can’t see either of them, in their limited experiences, making the club out of camp. That essentially boils the competition to Nova and Colon, and unless Colon lights up opposing hitters during his spring starts, it’s hard to see anyone but Nova taking the job.

This is really just a reminder of the differences between perception and reality in spring training. Last year the Yankees held a fifth starter competition, but word was that Hughes was the favorite from the start. This year they’re doing something similar, but if you break down the contestants it’s hard to pick anyone other than Garcia and Nova, with Colon having an outside shot because of his veteran status. Maybe these things do motivate players, but they’re easy enough to see through. The Yanks are saying it, but from the looks there’s not much of a competition at all.

Yanks tab Colon to start Grapefruit League opener

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Per Bryan Hoch, the Yanks will start their back-end rotation competition with a bang as Bartolo Colon will start the Yanks’ Grapefruit League opener on Saturday. He’ll go up against Cole Hamels and the Phillies in Tampa. The Yanks are going with Colon, who threw a bunch of innings in winter ball because he is “best prepared for the assignment.”

Following him in the rotation will be Ivan Nova, CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia. Sergio Mitre, the fourth candidate for one of two rotation spots, will work in relief for now. As we’ve covered to death, Colon, Garcia, Nova and Mitre will be competing for two rotation spots, and it’s likely that Colon and Garcia will have a leg up if they can throw well and get outs this spring. For purposes of early-season depth alone, the Yanks may opt for the veterans over Nova. How long they last is anyone’s guess.