J.J. Hardy Archives - River Avenue Blues

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Low-Cost Infielders

January 17, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Drew rhymes with boo. (Patrick McDermott/Getty)

With Spring Training less than four weeks away, the Yankees do not have established second or third basemen, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. You could do worse than going into the season with Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar at those positions. A lot worse. A lack of established players doesn’t mean a lack of options.

At the same time, going with rookies at two infield positions is risky, especially when one has not played in nine months due to an injury. The Yankees have already signed Jace Peterson to a minor league deal for depth, and in all likelihood, another infielder is on the way. Maybe it’ll be Josh Harrison. The Yankees have been connected to him for weeks and the Pirates are clearly selling.

If the Yankees don’t swing a trade for Harrison or sign a bigger name free agent like Neil Walker or Todd Frazier, they could seek out a lower cost option, which would fit nicely under the $197M luxury tax threshold. They’ve done this stuff before. Remember Brian Roberts? Kelly Johnson? Stephen Drew? All bargain pickups to plug roster holes. Here are some low-cost free agent infielders who could interest the Yankees.

Stephen Drew

2017 Stats: .253/.302/.358 (70 wRC+) and +0.1 WAR
2018 ~~ZiPS~~ Steamer: .234/.301/.407 (86 wRC+) and +0.1 WAR

What does he offer? Drew has spent the last two seasons as a utility man with the Nationals, playing the three non-first base infield positions and occasionally running into a fastball off the bench. He’s still a fine defender — Drew’s always had that going for him — and as a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium, there’s always a chance his offense will tick up. With Drew, you’re getting a good glove and at least a chance at some offense.

Why should the Yankees avoid him? We’ve been here before, right? Drew was terrible in his only full season with the Yankees, hitting .201/.271/.381 (76 wRC+) and falling out of favor. Even with a new manager — Aaron Boone would represent a fresh start after Drew played under Joe Girardi — the Yankees may not want to go down this road again. Been there, done that.

Yunel Escobar

2017 Stats: .274/.333/.397 (100 wRC+) and +0.8 WAR
2018 ZiPS: .263/.319/.353 (87 OPS+) and +0.0 WAR

What does he offer? Escobar is one year removed from hitting .304/.355/.391 (107 wRC+) and he’s a high contact bat who would help balance out a lineup that probably has more strikeouts than the Yankees would like. He’s been a full-time third baseman for three years now, but he could play shortstop in a pinch. His second base experience is limited. Contact and some infield versatility. That’s what you’re getting here.

Why should the Yankees avoid him? At this point, Escobar’s value is tied up almost entirely in his batting average. He doesn’t walk much, he doesn’t hit for power, and the defensive stats hate him at the hot corner. Also, Escobar has long had a reputation for being a headache in the clubhouse. He wore out his welcome in Atlanta, in Toronto, in Tampa, in Washington, and in Anaheim. Even when he produced, those clubs weren’t sad to see him go.

Danny Espinosa

2017 Stats: .173/.245/.278 (41 wRC+) and -1.0 WAR
2018 ~~ZiPS~~ Steamer: .202/.280/.344 (66 wRC+) and +0 WAR

What does he offer? Espinosa is a more extreme version of Drew. He’s a worse hitter and better defender, plus he’s also played a little first base and left field. And he’s a switch-hitter, which is potentially useful. Keep in mind the Yankees have had interest in Espinosa before. So much so that I once wrote a Scouting The Market post on him. That was back when Espinosa was coming off a few good seasons with the Nationals and seemed salvageable. That interest could linger.

Why should the Yankees avoid him? Good gravy Espinosa was sooo bad last year. So bad he was released by two teams. This is a guy who has hit .207/.282/.353 (70 wRC+) in his last 1,839 plate appearances dating back to Opening Day 2013. Espinosa is Brendan Ryan with a lesser glove, basically. At the same time, it would be the most Yankee thing ever for them to sign Espinosa and have him inexplicably hit .280/.395/.500 for two months until Gleyber is ready.

J.J. Hardy

2017 Stats: .217/.255/.323 (50 wRC+) and -0.6 WAR
2018 ZiPS: .232/.274/.330 (63 OPS+) and +0.1 WAR

What does he offer? Remember when there was some thought the Yankees would sign Hardy to replace Derek Jeter? Good thing that didn’t happen. Hardy signed an extension with the Orioles before becoming a free agent and the Yankees wound up with Didi Gregorius. Phew. Anyway, Hardy lost his shortstop job to a wrist injury and the Tim Beckham trade last season, but he still offers a good glove and a contact-oriented approach.

Why should the Yankees avoid him? The wrist problems and the fact he hasn’t been even a league average hitter in five years. Also, Hardy has never played a position other than shortstop in his big league career. Not even DH!. So, to sum it all up, the Yankees would be asking a guy who hasn’t hit much the last few years to learn a new infield position on the fly. What could go wrong?

Brandon Phillips

2017 Stats: .285/.319/.416 (93 wRC+) and +1.6 WAR
2018 ZiPS: .267/.297/.375 (86 OPS+) and +0.3 WAR

What does he offer? Phillips for Brett Gardner, who says no? Remember those days? That was a long time ago now. Anyway, Phillips had arguably the best offensive season of any player in this post last year, and he also played third base for the first time in deference to some younger players with the Braves. The ability to play second (well) and third while being more than a zero at the plate seems like exactly the kind of low-cost veteran the Yankees would target.

Why should the Yankees avoid him? As with any 36-year-old player, there’s a chance Phillips will suddenly fall off a cliff, though the fact he’d be on a small one-year contract would mitigate the risk. If he stinks, you cut him. Also, Phillips has a rep for being a bit of a jerk, though I wonder how true that really is. Is he cool with his teammates and a jerk to the media? Being a jerk to the media is the fastest way to get a bad clubhouse rep. I mean, Phillips spent eleven years with the Reds. Would they have kept him around that long if he was really a bad clubhouse dude?

Jose Reyes

2017 Stats: .246/.315/.413 (94 wRC+) and +2.0 WAR
2018 ZiPS: .255/.311/.405 (93 OPS+) and +0.9 WAR

What does he offer? I’m surprised Reyes’ numbers are as good as they were given how much Mets fans complained about him last summer. (He bottomed out at .184/.261/.286 on June 15th, then hit .292/.356/.511 the rest of the way.) Reyes is a switch-hitter who makes contact and can still run a little — he went 24-for-30 in steal attempts last season — and last year he embraced a true utility role, playing second, third, short, left, and center. The defensive numbers weren’t good anywhere, however. They weren’t even average. The stats say Reyes is a bad defender all around the field.

Why should the Yankees avoid him? Even with that big finish last year, Reyes has hit .261/.315/.406 (92 wRC+) in his last 1,359 plate appearances, and he’s at the age when middle infielders tend to fall off a cliff. The versatility is nice and we can’t ignore his big finish last season, but the bad defense means that if he doesn’t hit, Reyes has no redeeming qualities at all.

* * *

There are other potential low-cost infielders out there like Darwin Barney, Alcides Escobar, Ryan Goins, and Cliff Pennington, all of whom are no bat/good glove players. If the Yankees were going to go that route, the defense-first route, I think they’d target someone who offers a little offensive upside, like Drew or Espinosa. Those guys are at least capable of making a pitcher pay for a mistake. Barney, Escobar, Goins, or Pennington? Nah.

Here’s what we know. One, the Yankees have about $22M to spend under the luxury tax threshold, minus what they set aside for midseason additions. And two, they want Torres to take over at second base sooner rather than later, and chances are they feel the same about Andujar at third. In a perfect world they would spend as little of that $22M as possible on a stopgap infielder who won’t block Torres or Andujar long-term. That could lead them to one of these flawed low-cost infielders who don’t appear to have much of a market right now.

Update: Hardy agrees to three-year extension with Orioles

October 9, 2014 by Mike 333 Comments

1:34pm: According to Roch Kubatko, Hardy and the Orioles have agreed to a three-year extension worth $40M or so. Scratch him of the list.

12:00pm: Via Dan Martin: Orioles shortstop and impending free agent J.J. Hardy said he will listen to the Yankees if they come calling this offseason. “It’s not something I can look into the future and see what’s going to happen. I’ve just got to focus on helping our team right now and obviously the playoff this year. But if it comes to it, I’ll have to think about it more,” he said. “This is my fourth year here and I feel like this organization, we’re going in the right direction. It’s a good group of guys here. It’s something if they came to me, I would listen, also.”

Hardy, 32, hit .268/.309/.372 (90 wRC+) with nine homers in 141 games this year while missing time with lower back problems. He hit 20+ homers every year from 2011-13 as well as in 2007-08, plus he’s a very good defender despite an unconventional over-the-top throwing motion that makes you wonder if the ball will make it to first base on the fly. There will be a bunch of quality shortstops on the market this winter and Hardy is probably the best two-way player, though the back trouble dates back to last year and that’s kinda scary. Jhonny Peralta signed a four-year, $52M contract last winter and I suspect Hardy will get something similar even though he’ll cost a draft pick to sign.

Mailbag: A-Rod, Profar, Hardy

February 1, 2013 by Mike 52 Comments

Only three questions this week, but they’re good ones. Use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything throughout the week, mailbag questions or otherwise.

Many people asked: What happens with regards to the luxury tax if Alex Rodriguez retires or his contract is voided or he agrees to a buyout?

The answer to all three of those situations is: I have no idea. I imagine the Yankees would be off the hook completely if he voluntarily retired (which he would never do) or they were able to void the contract (which is extremely unlikely). Even if doctors said A-Rod was physically unable to play, he still wouldn’t retire. He’d just force the team to stick him on the 60-day DL every year and keep collecting his money, like Albert Belle did with the Orioles back in the day. That’s what I would do. The Yankees would collect insurance money in that case, but I don’t think it would prevent his salary from counting against the luxury tax. I don’t know that for sure though.

Until we have definitive word otherwise, I assume Alex and his entire $27.5M luxury tax hit will be on the books for the next five years. If they manage to work something out that changes his luxury tax hit, great. I’m not counting on it.

Anonymous asks: Hypothetical situation: if the Yankees had Jurickson Profar and you were the GM, would you hold him back in the minors, move Derek Jeter to a new position (or DH), or maybe something else entirely? This is obviously not a problem for the Yankees now, but it’s fun to play what-if.

Profar, 20 next month, is the best prospect in all of baseball. He hit .281/.368/.452 (127 wRC+) with 14 homers and 16 steals in 126 Double-A games last year, then made his big league debut in September. He’s truly elite, a great-defending shortstop who hits for average and power and can run. Profar is Hanley Ramirez — the good version with the Marlins from back in the day — with better defense.

If he was Yankees property and I was calling the shots, I’m pretty sure I would send Profar to Triple-A to begin 2013. It would be incredibly tempting to run him out there everyday if Jeter’s ankle kept him on the shelf early in the season, however. Profar would be the obvious long-term solution at shortstop once the Cap’n retires, and I would try to push Jeter to third base or DH in 2014 (assuming he exercises his player option) to make it happen.

Daniel asks: Any chance of acquiring J.J. Hardy from Baltimore? I can see them sticking with him this year, but would they really block Machado two straight years? I don’t think so and Hardy supposedly only plays shortstop.

Hardy, 30, hit .238/.282/.389 (78 wRC+) last season after putting together a .269/.310/.491 (113 wRC+) line with 30 homers a year ago. Given the dearth of quality shortstops, I totally would have traded Hardy this winter and handed Machado the shortstop job if I was the Orioles. Instead, Machado will play third base in 2013.

Baltimore owes Hardy $7M in both 2013 and 2014, so he’s very reasonably priced given his great defense and power production. He’d be a great fit for the Yankees if the ankle forces Jeter off shortstop full-time, but I have a very hard time seeing the Bombers and Orioles getting together for a trade. Especially if the O’s prove last year was no fluke and remain competitive. Hardy is too expensive to be a utility man and too good defensively to DH, but he’d be a great Jeter replacement.

Don’t overlook these under-the-radar Twins

October 4, 2010 by Mike 124 Comments

Like every other team in the postseason, the Twins are only going to go as far as their best players take them. Francisco Liriano needs to match the opposing team’s ace pitch-for-pitch, Joe Mauer needs to take advantage of whatever opportunities he’s given, and Jim Thome has to be that second offensive force. It’s imperative that those three do their part, but like everyone else the Twins are also going to need contributions from other players as well.

The Yankees certainly benefited from some unexpected contributions during last season’s title run, whether it be Damaso Marte’s shutdown relief work or Jerry Hairston spot starting in rightfield, so we know how important complimentary players can be. Here’s a few names that they shouldn’t overlook when preparing for the ALDS, because if they do, chances are they’ll regret it…

Delmon Young

The Twins’ lineup certainly features plenty of dangerous lefty bats, but the Yanks are going to be able to counter that somewhat with CC Sabathia in Game One and (more than likely) Andy Pettitte in Game Two. Minnesota hasn’t had too many righthanded power bats beyond the good, but not holy crap good Michael Cuddyer to help balance out their lineup over the years, but now they have that extra power righty in Young.

A former first overall pick who didn’t turn 25 until just three weeks ago, Young finally started to deliver on his immense promise this season, hitting .298/.333/.493 with career bests in wOBA (.352), homers (21), doubles (46), and strikeout rate (14.2%). He’s done a huge chunk of his damage against lefthanded pitchers, posting a .390 wOBA against them in 2010 and .352 for his career. Young will still expand the zone and have poor at-bats on occasion, but he’s growing into some more power and mistake pitches are leaving the yard more often than ever before. Sabathia and Pettitte are going to have to make sure they’re careful with Minnesota’s best righthanded threat.

Brian Fuentes

I’m sure at least some of you snickered when you read Fuentes’ name, because we all remember him being pretty shaky in the closer’s role over the last two seasons or so. Well, Fuentes isn’t a closer now, instead shifted to a role that’s much more suited to his skill set: lefty specialist. Fuentes crushed lefthanded batters this season, holding them to a .128/.222/.149 batting line and just a single extra base hit. Over the last three years, his dinosaur arm delivery limited lefties to a .196/.258/.234 line, and he’s surrendered just two (!!!) extra base hits to same-side batters since 2007 and one homerun since 2006.

Laugh at him for his failures as a closer or for Alex Rodriguez’s game-tying blast in last year’s ALCS, but the guy is shutdown lefthander that will create some matchup havoc late in games. Marcus Thames, and even … gulp … Austin Kearns are going to have to pull their weight against Fuentes this series.

Danny Valencia & J.J. Hardy

Young isn’t the only righthanded bat worth worrying about, the Twins new left side of the infield improved their team immensely in that area as well. Hardy, acquired from the Brewers in the offseason, brings what amounts to a league average bat from the shortstop position, an upgrade over what Orlando Cabrera gave them last season. The defensive improvement is considerable as well.

Valencia, the second half rookie sensation, looks like Alex Rodriguez compared to the dreck Minnesota has run out at the hot corner over the last few seasons. He brings a .351 wOBA from the right side, and like Young he murders lefthanded pitching (.424 wOBA this year). Compare that to Brendan Harris, who (mostly) started at third last year and was lucky to get his slugging percentage over .351, forget wOBA. Automatic outs like Harris, Nick Punto, and Carlos Gomez are nowhere to be found this year, so Yankee pitchers are going to have to be much more careful once they get past the heart of the order.