Fan Confidence Poll: January 25th, 2010

Unconfirmed Report: Yanks inquired about Nelson Cruz
The 10 biggest pitching performances of the 2009 regular season

2009 Season Record: 103-59 (915 RS, 753 RA), won AL East by 8 games, finished with the best record in MLB by 6 games, won 27th World Series

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the new and improved Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Unconfirmed Report: Yanks inquired about Nelson Cruz
The 10 biggest pitching performances of the 2009 regular season
  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

    Confidence Level: 11.

    And, one more time for the boys because, tough loss notwithstanding, I’m proud of them:

    J!
    E!
    T!
    S!
    JETS!
    JETS!
    JETS!

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Word. They made the baseball offseason slightly more bearable. They’ve got a good foundation, so they’ll be back. Getting Kris Jenkins back and healthy is like picking up a premier free agent, and Leon Washington is just icing on the cake.

      • theyankeewarrior

        Yes, but they will most likely have two more season ending injuries to make up for getting these guys back.

        Injuries are easily the worst part about football.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          Very true, though it would be tough to lose a guy as impactful as Jenkins again, unless Revis goes down.

          • CountryClub

            The problem is, I don’t think you can ever count on him being healthy for a full season.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

              The problem is, I don’t think you can ever count on him being healthy for a full season.

              Kris Jenkins, Games Played and Games Started:

              2001 Age 22 – 16, 11
              2002 Age23 – 16, 16
              2003 Age 24 – 16, 16
              2004 Age 25 – 4, 4
              2005 Age 26 – 1, 1
              2006 Age 27 – 16, 16
              2007 Age 28 – 16, 15
              2008 Age 29 – 16, 16
              2009 Age 30 – 6, 6

              I think you’re overstating it a bit. He’s been nicked up, sure, but he’s not a walking infirmary. 3 seasons with injuries, 6 seasons of healthiness.

              • CountryClub

                OK, that is somewhat surprising (although he’s missed major time in 3 of past 6 years). However, in a lot of the games that you listed above, he played while he was hurting. He wasnt the dominant player that we know he can be. Plus, age & the fact he’s huge, arent normally good for bad backs.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        Getting Kris Jenkins back and healthy is like picking up a premier free agent, and Leon Washington is just icing on the cake.

        I’d personally say that losing Leon was probably the bigger blow of the two, all things considered.

        Jenkins is straight beastmode, sure, but Pouha is a very capable replacement. He’s also a man-mountain, and he held his own all year long.

        Leon, however, was the electricity to our offense. He created mismatches in a way that Cotch, Braylon, Brad Smith, et. al. just can’t. Getting him back will be monumentally important. He’s a playmaker.

        Going forward, it looks like Braylon will be back, since we’ll tender him at a 1st and 3rd compensation level (and nobody in their right mind would touch that). Thanks to the uncapped year, all three of our RB’s (Thomas/Shonn/Leon) will be back, although dumping Jones wouldn’t surprise me since he’s lost some tread on the tires. Best to keep him, however; don’t mess with success.

        The only thing that sucks a little about the uncapped year CBA wrinkles is since we made the Final Four, we can’t sign any free agents unless we lose one first, and we won’t be losing any that I can see. (No, cutting Vernon Gholston doesn’t count). So, the only real additions we’re making are the 1st and 2nd round picks we have (we don’t have a 3rd or a 4th due to the Edwards and Sheppard deals.)

        I’d double down and use both the picks on defense. Make our elite unite a “Holy Shit These Guys Are Incredible” unit. Add a playmaker in the secondary (either another corner to play across from Revis Island and bump Sheppard/Lowery to the slot corners and Coleman to the bench where he belongs, or a good centerfielder rover to replace Rhodes on the back line, who was never a good coverman anyway) and another DE/OLB passrusher. Turn up the heat.

    • http://twitter.com/riddering Riddering

      The future for the Jets looks really good right about now. The rest of the AFC East should watch their backs.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        Tommie: very aroused

      • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=nf Andy in Sunny Daytona

        Rex Ryan just has to avoid the traps that always caught his father. Don’t isolate the offense from the defense. They are, together, one team. Buddy Ryan always threw his offense under the bus when they played poorly. I hope Rex Ryan doesn’t do the same, he hasn’t so far.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          The thing that heartens me is that we’re not going to pull a Randall Cunningham with Mark Sanchez.

          We’re actually going to, you know, keep drafting and building an offensive line. The Eagles just left Randall out there to scramble and die.

          • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=nf Andy in Sunny Daytona

            Exactly. You can’t ignore an offense then complain about its ineptness.

  • theyankeewarrior

    With Gardner in LF, confidence level = 9
    With Damon in LF, confidence level = 9.25

    Is there an advanced stat that could tell me if .25 in RAB confidence level is worth 5M for JD?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      RAB Fan Confidence Points (rabFCP) are worth about $22M on the open market.

      • jsbrendog officially approves signing Fernando Tatis (and is with CoCo)

        does fangraphs have a formula for that?

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          I assume a $220M payroll would lead to most people having full confidence in the team, which translates to $22M per rabFCP on average.

          However, it’s not that straight forward. The marginal upgrade from the 9th rabFCP to the 10th and from the 2nd to 3rd is smaller than say, the 6th to the 7th. It’s a normal distribution.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

            I believe you mean “It’s an inverted U-curve”.

            /I’m a dumbass’d

  • AndrewYF

    One more improvement for the graph – maybe start the y-axis at 5.00 instead of 0.00, so we can more easily see confidence movements.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I was thinking about that. Anyone else have input?

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        Anyone else have input?

        … nah, too easy.

        Sure, go for it.

      • Chris

        I would like to see two separate polls that break out the current season and longer term (5-10 years down the road).

      • Bob Stone

        That’s the way I created it, so I vote yes.

        Also – I’m at confidence level 9 this week.

  • Steve H

    Someone voted 1. Guess Bo is lurking in this thread.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      He’s moving his fan confidence downward because he’s just discovered that there’s a difference between a hitter’s park and a homer-friendly park, and his mind is blown.

      • Steve H

        Do you really think he’s actually discovered that and now “gets it”? I’m sure he’s still disputing that theory, his mind is not open for any sort of change, nevermind in just a few hours.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          Do you really think he’s actually discovered that and now “gets it”?

          No, of course not. I was being satirical.

          Clearly, SBGL cannot have his mind blown if he does not have a mind.

          • jsbrendog officially approves signing Fernando Tatis

            damn, did nto hit refresh to see this before i answered. FOILED!

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

              FOILED!

              Just like all of NBC’s brilliant plans for late night.

              http://www.instantrimshot.com

      • jsbrendog officially approves signing Fernando Tatis (and is with CoCo)

        to have one’s mind be blown one would have to possess a mind in the first place…

    • A.D.

      That or its the Sox fan, where their desire is for the Yanks to suck, and they are failing miserably at that.

  • Evilest Empire

    Yanks are reigning WS champs and the team might be better April 2010 than it was in November 2009. Plus, I smell terrific.

    Confidence Level: 28

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Plus, I smell terrific.

      Mmmmmmmmmmmmm… I look good. I mean really good.

      HEY EVERYONE! COME AND SEE HOW GOOD I LOOK!

      • Evilest Empire

        I AM THE BESTEST LOOKING, SMELLINGEST PERSON IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNIVERSE!

    • Tampa Yankee

      What cologne you gonna go with? London Gentleman, or wait. No, no, no. Hold on. Blackbeard’s Delight.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        It saddens me that no enterprising young perfumer has yet made actual Sex Panther, London Gentelman, and Blackbeard’s Delight colognes. I bet they’d sell.

        I’d buy them in bulk. Awesome gag gifts.

  • Reggie C.

    9.

    If Cash is indeed looking at the trade market, i’m sure he’s called the Natinals. The cost of trading for Josh Willingham ($4.6 mm) is going to be lower than a Nelson Cruz prospect package. Willingham would serve as a 2-year stop gap at worst and give the farm time to develop a ML average corner outfielder.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      The cost of trading for Josh Willingham ($4.6 mm) is going to be lower than a Nelson Cruz prospect package.

      A.) I’m not sure if that’s true or not.
      B.) They’re both still probably higher than we’re willing to surrender.

      • Reggie C.

        For a couple years of LF stability, i’d be willing to part with Nova & Bleich.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          With Pettitte and Vazquez both openly discussing retirement, and with IPK, Coke, Dunn, and Vizcaino all gone from the system this winter, I’d prefer to keep Nova and Bleich.

          • Tom Zig

            Palabra

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

              I think someone said “Wordekemper and Fortenberry” the other day. I fully endorse this pairing as the new go-to trade meme.

              Long names are funny.

              • pete

                what’s weird about that duo is that even though wordekemper is a pitcher and fortenberry an outfielder, fortenberry has a better arm than wordekemper, and wordekemper is probably a better hitter (assuming he can hold a bat and swing it blindly in sync with the approaching pitch, a skill fortenberry is still trying to get the hang of).

              • whozat

                This is why we MUST acquire Saltalamacchia, Rowland-Smith, and bring Frank Catalanotto home to LI.

              • Tom Zig

                Is it Jeff or Seth Fortenberry? I assume it’s Seth, even though a Jeff Fortenberry appears to have been in the Yankee organization at one time (perhaps a misprint in the paper)

  • mryankee

    Isnt Nelson Cruz the guy who hit that bomb to left field over the bullpen? That dude is good I say lets get him for left field. Imagine him hiiting ninth?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Why am I not surprised that you’re basing your advocacy for the acquisition of Nelson Cruz on the concept of “I remember seeing that guy do something really cool that one time”.

  • http://theyankeemanager.blogspot.com/ Managing the Yankees

    Enough with the trade already. The Yankees lost a lot of good prospects this off-season. In fact they need to stack up again to bolster their farm system.

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