Oct
11
Fan Confidence Poll: October 11th, 2010
ByRecord Last Week: 3-0 (17 RS, 7 RA) swept Twins in best-of-five ALDS
Season Record: 95-67 (859 RS, 693 RA, 98-64 Pythag. record), finished one game back in AL East, won Wild Card
Schedule This Week: ALCS Game One (Friday @ Rangers or Rays), ALCS Game Two (Saturday @ Rangers or Rays)
Top stories from last week:
- The Yankees released their ALDS roster on Tuesday, with Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, and Greg Golson making the cut. A.J Burnett did not make the three man starting rotation and was instead made available in relief.
- After traveling to Minnesota, the Yanks opened the ALDS with a win in a back-and-forth affair. They made an adjustment to get to Francisco Liriano, with Curtis Granderson taking advantage after failing earlier in the game.
- Game Two was much less stressful, with Andy Pettitte turning a brilliant performance while Lance Berkman did the damage with the stick for a win and a two games to none series lead. Pettitte benefited from the strike zone, and the Yanks showed that they’re going to ride their decline pickups while they have them.
- Returning home to the Bronx after an off day for Game Three, the Yankees finished off the sweep thanks to a stellar effort from young Phil Hughes. He changed up his game plan and went right after the Twins with fastballs to great success.
- The Yanks now await the winner of Tuesday’s Game Five between the Rangers and Rays. No matter who they face in the ALCS, the Yanks won’t see the other team’s ace until Game Three. Everyone will be off today (and yesterday) before regrouping tomorrow.
- Injury Zone: Mark Teixeira received a cortisone shot in his injured thumb last month. Prospect Slade Heathcott had shoulder surgery and won’t be able to resume training until at least February.
- Alex Rodriguez was named the American League’s Player of the Month for September.
- Baseball America named Andrew Brackman the fifth best prospect in the Double-A Eastern League and Dellin Betances fourth in the High-A Florida State League.
- The Yanks signed outfielder Breland Brown to a minor league deal. Ryan Pope is headed to the Arizona Fall League.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
37 Comments»
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What a difference a week makes –
The average rating over the last month has been hovering in the low 7′s. A sweep of the Twins, backed by solid starts from Pettitte and Hughes, should push this week’s figure over 8 and maybe near 8.50.
September had not been kind to the Yankees. A presumed champion was instead limping to the playoffs. Its best players looked old. Its once overwhelming pitching staff was worn, tired and hittable.
This looked for everything like a team vulnerable. Until Derek Jeter(notes) stood before them in a meeting before these playoffs started and dryly said as only Jeter can: “Practice is over, this is when it counts. We were under .500 in September? So what?”
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne…..alds100910
I’ve usually been an 8, which, in my view, is very, very, very, very good. Sometimes, like this week, they are so splendid I have to go to 9.
I love Jeter’s “Practice is over” and “So what?” quotes.
Game on. I love watching the team even when they lose, but watching the Yankees play when they are hitting, fielding and pitching well–and winning–is just sheer joy.
your link don’t work
10 for sure. The team looked very good against Minn and the Yankees won’t have to face either of the Rays or Rangers best pitchers til game 3. Phil Hughes dominating and showing why the Yankees had so much faith in him.
Been holding steady at 9 all year.
I’ve been at 9 all year as well. I think I was clicking 8 in September too, instead of going into the panic zone.
8 IS panic zone for this team. Gotta keep the faith.
Mission 28 baby. Nuff said.
8 to 28! This week’s slogan. It will change after each win from here on out.
9 up from an 8. Hughes showed some serious testes last night. If the Jets win tonight my confidence will go up to a 10…lolwhevs
Trying to be consistent about this , I voted my usual 1 again. I am slightly shock I have company there.
you know that one is the lowest on the scale, right? It means that you have virtually no confidence.
Just clarifying.
I’ve been at a 9 all year. Now with 3 out of 11 victories won, I’m at 9.27.
I’m at 9. The only time the last 2 years I’ve been at 10 was when they won WS27. Other than that, no team is perfect. But these guys are looking pretty freaking good.
Can’t wait for Big Game James on Friday.
“98-64 Pythag. record”
According to the Pythagorean record this year the Yankees underperformed, which is true if you look at AJ, Javy and some of the other guys. The Yankees still won 95 games this year.
Last year, the Pythagorean record was the same as this years actual win/loss total at 95-67. The Yankees eventually won 103 games. Last year, the only main concern was Wang, and that’s about it if I remember correctly. There was also the Joba/Mitre/Gaudin fiasco at the back of the rotation. The Yankees did have a relatively healthy year in 2009, as opposed to the numerous injuries this year…
I have no idea where I’m going with this actually haha. I just thought it was interesting that Pythagorean Expectations were higher for the Yankees this year, than last and the results were opposite.
Not sure you understand the “Pythagorean record” (or maybe I don’t but I think I do). It basically takes the run differential and says how many games they “should” have won/lost. So if they win a lot of close games like 2009, their real record will be better than their Pythag record. If they lose some close games then their real record will be worse than Pythag.
Nothing to do with expectations, just trying to normalize a team’s record to reflect performance that doesn’t always show up in the win/loss column. The Pythag record increases with every game they play and goes up/down by run differential rather than wins/losses.
Anyone feel free to correct me if I don’t have that right.
Nah, that sounds right. Pythag records is essentially backed behind the idea that over time, runs will even out. So if you win a game 10-0 and lose a game 1-0, then over the course of the two games you still outscored your opponent by 9 runs. Most times that happens, you can expect to be 2-0. Pythag records do factor in expectations, because we would expect a team that outscore their opponents by a lot to win more games. But not expectations in the sense where a player underperforming will affect things.
The Yankees did have a relatively healthy year in 2009, as opposed to the numerous injuries this year…
They lost A-Rod for the first month or so with his hip, and then he was slow for a few weeks after he came back. They also lost Posada for some of the year (not much different than this year).
On top of those minor injuries, they got basically nothing (actually negative value) from their projected number 2 starter Wang. And they lost their starting RF one week into the season. No one really remembers that because Swisher stepped in and performed, but that’s more a sign of the depth of the team and not a lack of injuries.
Compare that to this year and the only significant injuries that they had were Nick Johnson missing almost the whole year and Pettitte missing the second half (Granderson and Posada also missed some time). This year they certainly seemed more banged up with minor injuries that impacted play or kept guys out for a relatively short time, but I don’t think they were really that much healthier last year.
Cosign. Also, Damon and Matsui were both a little dinged up last year by the end, although it didn’t matter b/c they are TrueYankee Warriors and not prissy money-grubbing FA imports…
…wait
9; Seems like everyone is carrying their weight this year in the playoffs, which is even better than last year when Swish and Tex had a rough time.
But the line graph doesn’t seem to be reflecting the sentiment I see here.
Voted an 8. In the short term, I’m very confident. In the long term, I’m a little less so.
Why’s that? Age of the team? Starting rotation? The farm system took huge steps this year towards being a top-10 farm system, that’s a pretty valuable asset going forward with an expensive, aging team as it allows you to plug holes with cost-effective players or trades. That says a bright future to me, anyway.
That.
Age of the left side of the infield, first base locked up so they have nowhere to go. Also, no real up-the-middle talent til you get down to the low minors. Which brings me down to an 8 — which is still saying this is an organization in excellent shape. Just not perfect
The sustained performance of Gardener has left me feeling more confident than at the beginning of the season, as has the sustained health and performance of Hughes.
All of those potential issues can be solved with one thing that the Yankees have in abundance: $$$$$$$$$$$$$$
The Yanks have a lot of up-the-middle talent at the bottom of the minors, but it’s certainly worth remembering that they have MLB’s second best 2B at age 28, and a SS who’s still likely to be among the league leaders in overall production at his position for the next couple of years.
Tex also figures to be a top-7 1B for the next several years, and ditto A-Rod, especially if he holds truer to his last month of play, rather than his first four.
The approaching depth at C is well-documented, and the Yanks’ OF is as good all-around as any in the league.
I’d say their biggest weakness in the future is starting pitching, and that’s only b/c we don’t know if they’re going to get Lee and/or Pettitte back, and we don’t know for sure their plans with Joba. And SP is arguably their deepest position in the minors.
I guess you could call that an 8, but there isn’t a team in the league i’d feel more confident about going forward.
I’ve been at 8 the whole season too, for the same reasons. I don’t know what the Yankees are gonna do without Jeter, Posada, and Rivera longterm. Hopefully they can develop some position player prospects. And I’m not confident at all that Montero’s gonna be a catcher, and I want to see how Romine does next year.
9. I’m extremely confident in the team going forward throughout the playoffs. We’re going to get Texas/Tampa and we don’t even have to face their ace until Game Three. In either circumstance, we’re going back to the World Series after beating either Texas/Tampa in 5.
8, the skies are much bluer after the Yankees dominated the ALDS and with either ALCS possibility struggling.
I’m a nine and that is simply because the rotation of the Phillies scare me. I think we are and should be favourites against either the Ray’s (who are built fot regular season success) or the Rangers (Lee would only start two games and apart from him we are better). We could still lose but I’m comfortable we are the better team.
However the Phillies are a much better team than last year and we are not as good offensivly as we were. We are still a very good team but last year I just knew we were better than them. This year it might be a 50/50 call
a 7 game series you have Halladay for 3 starts, Oswalt for 2 or maybe 3 starts which is a scary proposition.
Halladay > CC (blasphemous I know but probably true)
Oswalt > Andy (AAAA or not
I think Hughes is at least as good as Hamels. Blanton and AJ is pretty much a wash.
This is misleading. In a Vacuum, I’d say the following:
Halladay > CC
Oswalt > Andy
Hamels > Hughes
Blanton = AJ.
In the context of facing not only the opposing pitcher, but the opposing offense as well, I would argue that
Halladay = CC
Oswalt < Andy
Hamels = Hughes
Blanton = AJ
No matter how you slice it, beating the Phils would be a very tall order. But I think beating the Yanks would be slightly taller.
You might be right – I think that this is the first since the Braves heydays that a NL team might be the best team in Baseball and not just a lucky team (Arizona, Florida, St Louis – yes I’m looking at you). I call it 50/50 right now
The way our lineup is swinging right now, we are just as good as last season offensively.
You can’t use the 2010 season stats to judge this unit because guys like Granderson, Tex, and Jeter were not swinging well all year and are now hot.
Yes, I included Jeter, because he hit more hard liners to the OF in the ALDS than he has in any series all season, and he looked better in September.
Right now, the Yankee lineup has 0 players in a funk and more than half the players have their A swings on.
I wouldn’t be too hot on Jeter, though. His September reminded me of his April, where his average was up but he was still swinging at too many pitches and hitting for no power whatsoever. He did look pretty good the first two games of the ALDS, though.
Oh sure, I’m not expecting a 2009 performance out of him, but any time he’s consistently hitting balls on a line into the OF, it’s a win for us.
He spent the months of May-August hitting weak grounders everywhere. September and October have been a significant upgrade from his mid-season self.
His swing seems to have some more pop as well. 5 days off will help him (and this team) so much.