Sep
19
Fan Confidence Poll: September 19th, 2011
ByRecord Last Week: 3-3 (24 RS, 21 RA)
Season Record: 91-60 (809 RS, 606 RA, 97-54 pythag. record), 4.5 games up in AL East, 6.5 up for wildcard
Opponents This Week: vs. Twins (one game, Mon.), vs. Rays (four games, Tues. to Thurs., two on Weds.), vs. Red Sox (three games, Fri. to Sun.)
Top stories from last week:
- The west coast trip continued in Seattle, a series that started with a big win over Felix Hernandez. Mariano Rivera got his 600th career save the next day, but Luis Rodriguez hit a walk-off homer in the series finale.
- After the final off day of the season, the Yankees went to Toronto. They lost the opener on Jose Molina’s walk-off hit, but won Saturday’s game with a big comeback. They got shutout by Sunday’s game.
- Injury News: Phil Hughes was pushed back a few days because of back spasms. Robinson Cano got hit by a pitch in the foot in Seattle, but x-rays were negative. Frankie Cervelli was officially placed on the DL with concussion symptoms. Pedro Feliciano underwent surgery on his rotator cuff and is unlikely to pitch next year.
- The Yankees are selling Short Season Staten Island, but are purchasing Triple-A Scranton. Staten Island won their league championship.
- CC Sabathia was named a finalist for the Roberto Clemente Award while David Robertson is up for the Marvin Miller Man of the Year Award.
- The Yankees signed 16-year-old Colombian catcher Alvaro Noriega for $175k.
- The preliminary 2012 schedule was released.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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8
7. The starting pitching is a concern.
7 cause the rotation scares me a bit for the playoffs right now. Granted, the same could be said for any AL team, but still.
8. Win today and split with the Rays and we’re all good…
solid 8…
i’m shocked that they have a 4.5 game lead…but Boston picked the wrong week to start sniffing glue.
This bump is most likely from resting lots of regulars and a brutal ens of season west coast trip. I would expect them to turn it on in the post season.
Is it still 2010? I hope not for our sake.
I’ve been at a 9 all year and this will be the first time I upgrade to a 10. We have essentially locked up the division(5 game lead with 10 to play). Now it’s time to get healthy and get ready for the playoffs. Set up the rotation. CC, Nova, Colon, Hughes.
When we clinch the division we can get ready for the playoffs, not before. 2004 should have taught us that you can’t take anything for granted.
The Yankees made the playoffs in 2004, right?
Or am I mis-remembering?
I guess Yank The Frank is referring to losing after being up 3-0 on the Sox.
You don’t get how this works, do you?
Yankees finish : Red Sox finish to tie : Rays finish to tie
> 6-5 : Can’t : Can’t
6-5 : 10-0 : Can’t
5-6 : 9-1 : Can’t
4-7 : 8-2 : 10-0 (not possible)
3-8 : 7-3 : 9-1
2-9 : 6-4 : 8-2
1-10 : 5-5 : 7-3
0-11 : 4-6 : 6-4
After playing Minni, the Yankees have 10 games against the Sox and Rays. Literally all but one of the games they win from here on out will necessarily have to be losses for Boston or Tampa. If the Yankees win 4 more games, Tampa would have to go undefeated to tie them. If they just manage 3 more wins Tampa would have to go 9-1 to beat them.
Is it possible? Sure. It’s really, really unlikely though. And if they finish that poorly against both the Sox and Rays, they’ve got no one but themselves to blame.
This team, 2011 here and now, has shown they can be an offensive power house but as they clank into the post season the pitching is very suspect. Outside of CC and Nova, everyone else has kinda sucked since the ASB. We all know pitching wins championships. I’m pretty sure we’ll see two or three of Garcia/Colon/Hughes/Burnett, I just hope they can conjure up some 2005 magic en route to number 28. I’m a realist more than anything with the pitching I have to say a 6, matched up to the other pitching staffs in the post season, the Yanks have the worst 1-2-3 punch. The only one we can really trust is CC and he’s even on a small slide right now as well, I love me some Nova but I don’t trust him to do what he’s done post triple A. It is what it is.
I would urge you to look up “realism” and “pessimism.” Pretending to predict the future is not realism, and when you predict in a negative way… that’s what is called pessimism.
There are a lot of very good teams in the playoffs. Looking at any one of them today and expecting they will have an easy road to the WS Championship is unrealistic. That doesn’t mean you have to expect the worst and be at 60% confidence on the future of the best team in the AL with the majority of its players in their primes or younger and a top farm system.
Your post is pessimism, not realism. That’s fine. Expect it, though, and don’t parade it around as realism. It’s not. Realism involves analyzing the situation in an impartial way, not making pessimistic predictions about the future.
Realism: The attitude or practice of accepting a situation as it is and being prepared to deal with it accordingly.
Pessimism: A tendency to see the worst aspect of things or believe that the worst will happen; a lack of hope or confidence in the future.
Realism based on the production or lack thereof by the pitching staff post ASB. I could post the numbers but you’d simply call me a pessimist for posting facts.
I’m not a bridge jumper and I rarely complain about this team. But…
Boston: Beckett & Lester > CC & Nova
Detroit: Verlander & Fister > CC & Nova
Texas : CJ & Ogondo CC & Nova
Outside of Texas, the Yanks are over matched, pitching wise, but the have the best offensive. IMO, if they make a run it’ll be because of hitting not pitching.
I accept the situation and I’m dealing with it.
Was supposed to be = to Texas. If the Angels make it, their 1-2-3 is brutal, especially Weaver and Haren.
That’s why home field should be important, their offensive has a much better chance to put up crooked numbers in YS. I love this Yankees team, I just wish they had a true, reliable 2 & 3 starters, like 75% of the other playoff teams.
A. Ervin Santana is not “brutal.” The only thing that’s brutal is how the Yankees have hung 8 ERs on him in 13 IP this season, all in his own stadium.
B. Angels offense is towards the bottom of the AL. Sure Weaver and Haren could shut the Yankees out, but they’d be a weak playoff team overall against which I’d take my chances.
C. The Yankees will play in the same stadium as their opponent. Just as it will be easier for them to put up runs in YS, so will it be for the opponent. Just as it is less likely their offense scores in a pitcher’s park, it’s also less likely their pitcher surrenders as many runs.
D. Which AL playoff team has a “true #3″ that’s better than Colon?
In projecting forward, you do seem to me to be looking at the worst aspect in things. Even now you are lining up the top two starters without considering the rest of the rotations… and using no stats, just Mickey Scheister > < decisions. Great. Really scientific. Why is a team's #2 starter so much more important than the #3 and #4? (4 I can see an argument for since can go with a 3-man rotation, but 3 is as important as 2… and usually 4 is too.)
Porcello's FIP has been above 4.5 August and September, and all but one month on the season.
Scherzer's FIP has been about 4.5 August and September.
Fister's competition has been weak, so while he's good… I think his numbers are inflated (as I describe below).
Who are Boston's 3 & 4 starters? Lester? His FIP has been 5 the past two months. Bedard? Hasn't pitched in two weeks.
Yankees tore Ogando a new one in both his starts against them. Red Sox did the same in his start against them.
Yankees have likewise owned Holland in three appearances.
Harrison is probably Texas' #2 best starter.
Hughes' FIP has been around 4 the last three months.
Colon's FIP was 3.3 in July, close to 5 in August, and not 3.3 again for September.
Garcia's gotten roughed up his last few starts, but he was fine until then. Could certainly get over it… could not.
Even Burnett is at a 3.7 FIP in September so far after being above 5 the last couple of months.
It's not going to be easy for any team to win in the playoffs. Having questionable starters in the rotation is not something unique to the Yankees, though. Saying these guys is questionable is realistic. Deciding how they'll do before the playoffs is pessimistic. Slanting a comparison to put point out that the Yankees rotation is worse than others without looking at 1/2 their playoff rotations is pessimistic.
And I would call you overly critical as much as any regular poster on this site. When I see your handle that's exactly what I expect.
Still waiting on your name to turn blue with a captivating blog, as your dreadfully long and wordy responses are very strawman-esqe. Can you make a point in a paragraph or less?
We can agree to disagree but at the end of the day we both want the same results. However, your a dick. That is all.
You can’t actually come up with a response, so you decide to turn it into a personal attack instead. Really mature. So much value added with that post…
The funniest part is that I did make my point in about a paragraph, using the lists in between as supporting evidence.
You started with the personal attack, on my handle, remember that in the seven paragraph response? I made my point, you pull sentences out of context and make an argument out of it. If you dish it, you’ve got to take it too.
Just one example of pulling something out of context or really just doing your strawman arguments that your notorious for.
You implied I said Santana himself was brutal when, what I said was the Angels 1-2-3 punch is brutal.
Still waiting on your glorious blog, pretty sure you have more total words/paragraphs than the RAB regulars per article. People come to read Mike/Ben/Joe, not sift through your dreadfully long posts. I’m done responding. A wise man told me, don’t argue with fools, because people from a distance can’t tell who is who.
Their 1-2 is brutal… but I objected to including Santana in there. Their 1-2-3 is less than brutal to me. I understood your comment, I pulled the part I disagreed with out.
And calling me a fool makes you a really big, strong man. Good one big guy.
When it comes to why people come to RAB, please speak for yourself. I normally enjoy Ted’s posts because I know that far more often than not, he’s done his homework and provides some value to the discussion. Also, he quite often picks up things that even some of the best commentators neglect to mention. And finally, I tend to agree with him a lot. Some folks might not like the tone he takes (though he is rarely, if ever, the type to forego a reasoned argument just for the sake of insulting someone or calling them names), and they might not be interested in going through the length of what he writes, but I don’t mind reading. Especially when I think there’s value to what I’m reading, and I am not as easily threatened when my opinion is challenged. Most of the time.
Agreed. Sometimes, I think he argue’s minor points too much, but overall enjoy his writings.
I did not make a personal attack. I responded to your comment. You said you are not overly critical on the Yankees. I said I disagreed. I did not personally attack you. I did not call you a dick. I said my impression of your comments is that they are largely pessimistic.
If you want to say your impression of me is that I am a dick… fine. A. That’s not what you did. You just said I’m a dick. B. You made that your whole comment. Not adding to the discussion at all. I put mine as a direct response to your point at the end of a longer comment.
I can handle it fine, thanks. When I dish it out it’s almost always directly relevant to the conversation. You dropped the conversation and just made a comment that had little to do with the conversation to call me names.
I guess the two starter is that much more important because there’s A.) a chance that he gets two starts if it’s a three man rotation and B.) he’s there to prevent the team from going down 0-2.
But the #3 starter can clinch, or prevent elimination.
I dont think this argument will have a conclusion.
Not until the post-season starts and ends. We’re all speculating based on SSS’s, random dates and previous performance. The Yanks 1-2-3 could be lights out or could stink up the joint, as could any other playoff team. It would be great to see the starters return back to early season form going into Oct. YCPB, unless your first name is Ted.
YCPB, especially playoff baseball.
That’s what makes October great. Can’t wait, these last couple of weeks have dragged on forever.
Funny… because my entire point to you was that you can’t predict baseball, and your attempt to decide how the Yankees’ starters will do before the post-season to a point of having a 6 confidence rating isn’t worth much.
I don’t see much utility in just lining up starters without any context anyway, but I’m more just saying that in only looking at the top 2 starters for each team Mickey is not looking at the whole picture.
Fair enough.
matched up to the other pitching staffs in the post season, Yanks have the worst 1-2-3 punch.
Have you seen Texas and Boston’s rotation? Even Detroit’s is waaaay overrated because of Verlander and Doug Fister isn’t better than Colon.
Freddie’s 86 mph fastball ain’t fooling nobody and Fister > Anyone not named CC in the rotation. If the Yanks make a post season run it’ll be because of hitting, not pitching IMO.
I think Fister would not have those shiny numbers if he didn’t spend the whole year in the same divisions as the A’s, Angels, Twins, and White Sox. He’s good, but IMO not better than Colon.
He’s better than Colon, pretty confident in saying that.
Yeah, his starts since coming to Detroit have been:
Oak, Min, Cle, KC, TB (@TB), Cle, Bal, Cle, Tex
6 of those 9 have come against the bottom half of the AL in terms of Rs, while the Trop is probably the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. Comerica is about even, whereas Yankee Stadium is hitter friendly.
Fister may or may not be better than Colon, Nova, whoever… but his Detroit numbers are probably inflated. Most of his lesser starts this season have been those against top offenses.
As far as 5 fWAR #1/2 starters go, I’d face Fister over just about any I can think of.
Fister has given up 4 runs in the past 44+ innings. He’s pitching really well, and I don’t think you can discount that because he’s not facing the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers every outing.
Bottom line: I am much, much happier facing the Rangers or Angels in the first round.
The Tigers will chew up the Red Sox in short series.
It’s not that he’s not facing the Yankees and Red Sox… it’s that he’s facing below average teams almost every single start (one top 5 offense in the AL since arriving in Detroit… one). That’s not at all representative of what he’ll face in the playoffs. That he can consistently get through the Indians or As or Twins order does not mean he can get through the top 3 offenses in the AL, which figure to be the teams he will face in the playoffs unless Rays or Angels get a spot.
Here are his games against top offenses:
Bos – 5.2 IP 0 ER
Det – 8 IP 4 ER
Tex – 4.2 IP 4 ER
Det – 8 IP 4 ER
Tex – 7.2 IP 4 ER
Tor – 6 IP 4 ER
NYY – 7 IP 3 ER
Tex – 7 IP 2 ER
An ERA of 4.17. Not terrible considering how good those offenses are and maybe he has made some changes in Detroit that will translate to better performances against that caliber of competition. However, that’s not an ace-like performance.
Certainly he might shut the Yankees down in a game or even two during a series. However, I don’t think he’s to be given the respect a Verlander, Beckett, Lester, or CJ Wilson is personally (or Halladay, Lee, or Hamels)… not that I’ve crunched their #s against strong competition, so maybe I’m wrong.
I don’t think he was every giving Fister the respect of an ace like Verlander, Beckett, Lester, or Wilson. However, he was saying that in a matchup against whoever the Yankees put out as their #2 that he would stand a good chance to win. Based on the statistics that you provided I would tend to agree, as if he is able to repeat the 7IP 3ER he had when he faced the Yankees, that should equal if not better whatever the Yankee #2 puts up. As so far this year, Colon has given up 7ER in 11 innings against Detroit, Garcia gave up 4ER in 7, and Hughes gave up 5 in 4 innings. Maybe they are able to improve, maybe Detroit hits them harder and maybe the Yankees adjust to Fister. Nova hasn’t faced Detroit, and he is more of the wild card in this because its hard to judge what he would do in his first postseason start.
A one game sample isn’t something you project forward on. That he had 7 IP 3 ER in the only game he’s pitched against the Yankees this season doesn’t mean he would do that again. That’s why I listed his performance against other teams with similar offenses to the Yankees. The results is an ERA over 4. It’s a fair point that the Yankees don’t have anyone necessarily better. Nova’s ERA in his last three starts against that same group of teams (he’s been a lot better recently than early in the season… so it’s arbitrary, but I’m cutting out those) is 3.8. Fairly comparable to Fister’s 4 ERA in his last 3 games against them.
It is a wild card to judge what Nova will do in his first post-season start, and yet
A. it’s not for Fister is his first post-season start?
B. it’s not a wild card to predict how the Yankees’ starters will do against Detroit based on tiny sample sizes of one or two games? Using Hughes’ start against them from before he hit the DL… That’s going to predict how he’ll do against them in the playoffs? His first start of the season on April 3?
By the way, this is the point I responded to “Fister has given up 4 runs in the past 44+ innings. He’s pitching really well…”
Texas and Boston’s rotations are as suspect as the Yanks if not more so, Angels, Tampa, and Detroit are probably better (and Fister is having a better season in terms of ERA & FIP than Colon, and is trending a whole lot better than Colon over the past few months)
6.5 for the year, 8 long term.
8… 4 rotation question marks after CC/NOVA
10 for the division.
9 for the ALDS-if it’s Texas
8 for the ALCS
6 for the WS
8. Starting pitching is a concern beyond CC and Nova.
The funniest thing about the “momentum” catastrophists, to me, is that they are basically ignoring their own advice: “Momentum is everything going into the playoffs.” There are still 11 games until the playoffs.
I don’t personally think momentum matters because it can change from game to game, PA to PA, pitch to pitch… However, I’m just saying that it seems especially stupid to be getting all bent out of shape about momentum going into the playoffs two weeks before the playoffs start. If you really believe the last 10 or 11 games are important to tomorrow’s game… there are still 11 games left to “build momentum.” Resting players before the 10 game stretch with the Sox and Rays rather than during it… that seems like exactly what a momentum catastrophist should advocate. Instead of resting those players during those last few series against very good teams which can be used as a preview to the playoffs.
What happens in September has no bearing to what happens in October. Prognostications and predictions are useless.
True, but you also have to look at the circumstances. Tampa and the Yanks are in decent shape right now. Playing decent ball and healthy.
The Sox, on the other hand have issues. They are going to have to have to fight tooth and nail to the end AND they have some major injury issues. Youk looks like he’s done and AGonz appears to be ailing. Those are two huge bats in the middle of the linup.
The rotation can’t give 5 innings and its killing their alreayd subpar pen. Winning in the playoffs will tough with those issues.
They’re useless if you just want utility out of them.
They’re a whole lot of fun to discuss, though. And even more fun to shove in people’s faces when they make outlandish predictions that come around to bite them in the ass **COUGH BOSTON COUGH**.
I would totally agree that prognostications and predictions are useless… but I would say that what happens in September can have a bearing on October, just not a straight-line one we can use to predict.
It’s a weird time to try and rate the team. Normally a 4-7 stretch would create alot of angst, but circumstances made it barely notceable — the fact that the Yanks were in almost every game they lost, the general sense that fatigue from the Oriole-boosted tough schedule was at the root of it, and of course the fact that the Red Sox were playing even worse, so ground was actually gained during the period.
The complaints here about the pitching are more ambience than fact — yeah, Freddy and Bart both had a bad start this week, but, on the whole, the pitching hasn’t been the culprit during the sub-.500 stretch; it’s the offense that’s too often failed. The pitching is about what it looked like in April: not, on paper, a match for the best teams, but somehow doing the job enough to create the league’s best record.
Still troubled by that big Pythagorean gap, though. All season we’ve thought it would even itself out, but, thanks to five (count ‘em) one-run losses in the past two weeks, the team is destined to under-perform its peripherals. Which could be fluky, or — to take the old-timer’s view — some sign they’re poorly equipped to triumph in late close games.
I don’t think a 4-7 stretch should cause much of any angst in judging the team’s future as a whole.
You have to do more than just “think” they’re poorly equipped to triumph in late close games.
And with a bullpen like ours, I’d have to see a LOT more research before I’d chalk it up to anything besides iffy luck.
I said the other day, the Yankee bullpen has been extraordinarily good at holding onto post-sixth-inning leads, but equally poor at winning late tied games. Their extra inning record is pretty close to atrocious. Some of this of course is offense-related; someone else suggested it was largely on Girardi’s bullpen management — using the A-team for the save situations, but relying on Logan/Wade/whoever when it came to late & tied (though Soriano & Mo have both lost games in that situation).
My use of “old timer” was meant to suggest it was a pre-sabremetric way of looking at things, and I’m not suggesting it’s necessarily valid. But I also wonder if modern-day fans are so fond of “but I proved it on paper!” that they gloss over real-world results. The fact that this team has underperformed the Pythagorean record by a substantial six games — and that this gap has persisted over a no-longer-small sample size of 150 games — combined with its manifestly poor record in late tied/extra-inning games, makes me wonder if there’s some problem in there that smoothed-out numbers don’t fully reveal.
Just look back at previous teams that have under-performed their pyth w-l during the regular season and whether there is a trend of their results in the playoffs compared to teams that over-performed their pyth w-l. I doubt there’s a significant trend, but this will show you exactly what happens in the real world. There is no “real world” and “paper” distinction you point to. What is on the paper should reflect what happened in the real world, or the paper is useless.
Exactly. The “paper” and “statistics” are records of what happened on the field.
They aren’t made up or fake or imaginary.
And the counter to frustration with fans who “proved it on paper” are fans who use anecdotes but have nothing to back them up. There are extremes on both sides.
Teams records in extra inning games varies pretty substantially from year to year. And even if it were meaningful, it’s not predictive of overall success, in the regular or post-season.
Blue Jays are 11-4 in extras. Nats are 11-8. Reds are 11-5. Dodgers are 8-2. The orioles are 8-7. I don’t think those teams would be any better suited for a playoff run than the Yankees.
In fact, the Phillies, everyone’s favorite World Series Favorites, are 8-9 in extras. The Rangers are 4-5.
When the Phils won in 08, they were approximately .500 in one run games, despite having the lights out Lidge at the end of the games.
When we’re talking about extra inning games, or even all one-run games, the sample size is not 150, it’s ~44 for the Yankees right now. And the past few weeks, Girardi has either gone insane or has been using his pen sub-optimally(in the short term) to keep our arms rested for the postseason. Ayala won’t see any close and late situations come the ALDS.
“And the counter to frustration with fans who “proved it on paper” are fans who use anecdotes but have nothing to back them up. There are extremes on both sides.”
I completely agree with this sentence.
I tried to post a fuller response, but lost it in cyber-space, and now I have to run to a pressing appointment. Let me just say I’m very much a fan of Bill James and all he’s done to loosen up baseball analysis. I’m just wary of sabremetrics turning into a rigid orthodoxy of its own, where whenever stats don’t match the outcome, it’s dismissed as a fluke. I doubt James would want his work to devolve to that.
“I’m just wary of sabremetrics turning into a rigid orthodoxy of its own, where whenever stats don’t match the outcome, it’s dismissed as a fluke.”
Agreed.
hard to move away from an 8, considering how close we are to the post-season sitting 4.5 up with 11 to go…
You have to consider that this team has taken their foot off the gas a little this past week in order to rest regulars, and the Red Sox have looked horrid the past few weeks.
Pitching has been a concern since April, so no added panic there. likewise for injuries. but look around you… Boston is suffering from injuries too, Detroit is slightly overblown, and Texas is completely beatable.
I don’t see why people are so high on Colon and Freddy, they’ve been pretty damn good, but would you really prefer them to Beckett, Scherzer, Fister, and either of Texas’ four starters who out WARed both Freddy and Bartolo. Look, at the beginning of the season NO ONE thought that they’d hold up nor did anyone think that they’d make post season roster. Bartolo hasn’t pitched in August or September in ages and does anyone think that Freddy’s junk balling is going to work long term? It could last through October and Verlander could get crushed in the playoffs, but something about a starter with a K/9 under six makes me quite uncomfortable in the playoffs.
I agree. There are alot of question marks about the rotation. We expected really nothing on the MiL deals for both Freddy and Bart and early on they were great. Once they each hit the DL, they haven’t been the same. The key to a successful playoff run would be Garcia and Colon regaining their early season form, easier said than done.
so, the answer is in the question… people are so high on Freddy and Colon because they have far exceed expectations. Beckett, Scherzer and Fister are better than Bartolo and Freddy, but they are supposed to be.
Except Scherzer hasn’t out Wared Bart, nor Nova for that matter.
Take CC/Colon/Nova of 12.3 vs. Texas top 3 of 12.4 vs. Det top 3 of 14.2 vs. Boston top 3 of 8.9.
Colon is 2.9, Nova 2.3 & Freddy 1.9. Texas 2-4 guys are in the 3′s. Not much of a difference.
Don’t forget that CC is top in War in the AL for pitchers.