Apr
23

Fan Confidence Poll: April 23rd, 2012

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Record Last Week: 4-2 (44 RS, 33 RA)
Season Record: 9-6 (90 RS, 73 RA, 9-6 pythag. record), tied for AL East lead
Opponents This Week: @ Rangers (three games, Mon. to Weds.), Thurs. OFF, vs. Tigers (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results
Categories : Polls
  • Ted Nelson

    It’s a HUGE leap to take what Stark said as meaning A-Rod’s milestones won’t count towards the luxury tax. It seems to directly contradicts what’s written in the CBA. I would definitely wait for some confirmation before jumping on that train.

    • Cris Pengiucci

      I’ll have to take your word on that, as I haven’t read the CBA. Either way, I’m still at a 9, although beginning to waiver with Pineda’s should issues and Gardner’s elbo problem. Should either of these prove to be long-term problems (especially Pineda), I’d likely move down to an 8, as this could impact the team long term. FA pitching is getting harder and harder to come by.

      • Ted Nelson

        Haven’t read it all, but there’s a section that basically says any compensation is covered by the luxury tax (something about all bonuses). Maybe somehow this is a separate contract not covered or something… but I don’t think it ever would have been approved.

        Agree that Pineda being irreparably damaged would be a big knock long term, especially with Betances’ early season struggles.

  • Bonnie Parker

    I’ve dropped to an 8 from a 9 last week. We have three young pheonoms- Pineda, Hughes, Joba. Two of them are injured. One of them probably won’t throw a pitch for us this year. The one that isn’t injured is a failed starter. IPK is 3-0. AJ threw 7 innings of shutout ball the other day. Colon threw 38 straight strikes. Why are we so bad at evaluating starting pitching? How many starters have been brought up through our system and enjoyed a successful career with us? Andy and hopefully Nova if they don’t screw him up. That’s why I dropped my rating.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      You mean how many names the average 12 year-old can name off, or how many names have actually gone through the New York Yankees system?

      We can leave things like “Ian Kennedy is pitching in the NL West” and “Bartolo Colon is 103″ for another time.

    • Typical MIT Nerd

      My worry exactly and why I’m at a 7. While the Novas, Robertsons, and Phelps of the world are nice, why do they have so much trouble developing front line starters. I don’t think they’ve developed one in the last 15 or 20 years. Pettitte came up in 1995. That’s 17 years. Who has there been since?

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

        How many legitimate front line pitching prospects have they had since Pettitte? They’re not 0-1000. They’re like, 0-5.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          Also, how many teams have produced a legitimate top of the rotation starter since then? How many have done it without the benefit of high draft picks? These guys are highly valued for a reason, because they’re rare.

          Have the Yankees been successful developing starting pitchers in the recent years? Not at all. But docking them for not developing front line guys paints an incomplete picture.

          • CS Yankee

            I want a Verlander developed every decade, a Cain every five and a Nova every damn year!
            :::pounds fist:::

            Sincerely,
            Hank Steinbrenner

      • Robinson Tilapia

        You may have heard of a guy named Chein Ming-Wang. I fully realize he both got injured and that extreme sinkerballers have a short shelf life in general, but he counts.

        It’s so easy to point fingers now, but you either forget, or weren’t even around, to realize that this is a franchise who would consistenly solve their pitching problems through the free agent markets or trades for as long as I can remember before the mid 90’s happened and the Stump Merrill/Chuck Cary All-Stars led to the Core Four. The team then proceeded to go right back to the FA and trade pool until only very recently (and, even then, Andy shared that rotation with Jimmy Key, Kenny Rogers, etc.) It’s only been a few years that “develop your own pitchers” has meant a damn thing here.

        You can’t point a finger and say “you weren’t developing pitching” when the franchise’s idea of developing pitching was named “Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, Roger Clemens, Jose Contreras, and so on….”

        • .zip file

          We have a winner. Give this man a cigar.

    • jsbrendog

      referencing aj burnett in the nl central, ipk in the nl west, and bartolo colon does not give your argument any credibility whatsoever other than the fact that the Yankees DID develop IPK so if you consider him a front line starter then that counts.

      definition of develop: bring along in the minor leagues so that they have a successful ML career. IPK went from the yankees minor league system right to the majors as a starting pitcher. the diamondbacks did not “develop” him. so, there you go flapjack.

      • jsbrendog

        note – this definition of develop is mine based on what the real definition of develop means since his first full ML season in ARI he was good, meaning their coaches had what amounts to one spring training to “develop” him.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Exactly. I bet Bonnie Parker and the MIT Nerd loved watching Granderson hit his 3 HRs the other night. Get what that cost the team…

      • Robinson Tilapia

        ….and I think we should referring to people on here as “flapjack” much more often, er, flapjack.

        • CS Yankee

          IETC & the original.

          I plan to use it when people are talking silly about something while using little-to-no data to draw “facts”, ala strawman.

          flapjack, its not just for breakfast anymore.

          • jsbrendog

            as tsjc used to say,
            i give because i love

    • Robinson Tilapia

      And, of course, silence once there’s actual pushback from other commenters here…

      • Havok9120

        It happens almost every time. They’re “above arguing,” by virtue of their belief in their own rectitude.

        Flapjack.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Yet they can’t wait to spread a little bit of troll dust on the next thread.

  • Robinson Tilapia

    I’ll be honest – long-term confidence is slipping somewhat, but I can’t get myself to vote lower than “8” here. I think they’ll get through 2012 just fine and be as much a championship contender as anyone else. For the long-term, though, I see two pitchers with guaranteed rotation spots in CC and Nova (and we know how opinions on Nova vary.) This means the team will have to have two strong rotation options emerging from a pool which includes Hughes (I know), Pineda, Phelps, Mitchell, Warren, Banuelos, and Betances. No matter how positive or not you are on the organization’s track record with pitching, or even the named mentioned above, it still means many things going right for it to happen. Time will tell.

    • Ted Nelson

      Even if you get rid of Hughes, that’s still 1 out of 3 starters you need to work out. I don’t think that’s asking for too much. Plus Marshall and the possibility of finding a scrap heap guy or something. By 2015 Turley, Nuding, or Ramirez could enter the picture.

  • Monterowasdinero

    9 for the playoffs.

    7 to make it to the WS.

    I like Phelps and DJ Mitchell (less). Hoping Pineda will contribute but have low expectations for him. Andy will give us a shot in the arm and CC/Kuroda and Nova plus Andy or a “wild card” arm will be plenty to make the post season but our pitching is not elite enough-yet.

    However, if the Cards can win it all last year-we certainly can this year.

    Maybe $wi$h gets the WS MVP!

    • Midland TX

      Well put. I can’t remember Jeter’s usual line but it’s something similar to “The team that plays well consistently makes the playoffs, and then the team that gets lucky wins in the playoffs.”

      All you can hope for is to get into the tourney and then heat up at the right time.

  • JCK

    I’m at a 7. Overall assessment of the franchise hasn’t changed, but my confidence in the current team is shaken a bit pending: Pineda’s injury outlook, Pettitte’s return, Garcia’s ability to regain some command. I feel like the starting pitching a little bit of a worry, but it’s early in the season, so not too much of one.

  • http://yesnet corethree

    I went with a 7, only because we havent played any baseball yet……..ask me again in about 1o days or more.
    corethree,

    formerly tendollaryankee

  • jjyank

    I’m at a 9. Pineda’s shoulder worries me a bit, but until we actually know what’s going on there I can’t change my rating. Pettitte seems to remain on track, and the offense seems to be heating up a bit. Sucks that Gardner got hurt, but it doesn’t seem too serious.

    As I’ve said in past confidence polls, the combination of a talented MLB roster and good pitching depth makes it hard for me not to be confident. The upcoming schedule will be tough, but I have faith.

  • Kosmo

    Banuelos and Betances in my humble(cough cough) estimation have slipped in my current Yankee prospect list and are for the time being no longer in the top 5. Most of the top notch prospects reside at Charleston and we all know that´s a long way to Tipperary.
    I´d like to hear more about Ronnier Mustelier who might be one of the first headed for a promotion.
    We might not get anything out of Pineda this year. Garcia is a left turn from either being traded or DFA. Hughes has about 3 more starts to prove his mettle or be “banished“ to the pen.
    SP begins with Sabathia, he needs to pitch better. Hopefully when Pettitte is ready he can give NY a steady middle of the rotation starter.
    Still the best team in the AL East and arguably the best all-around team in baseball. For the current 25 man roster I´d give a 9 but with all things considered as an org. a 7.

    • pat

      Banuelos made TWO starts this year and you’ve dropped him out of the Top 5? Are you freaking kidding?

      • Kosmo

        What has Banuelos accomplished since 2010 ? Not much. He didn´t pitch in 2011 like the 2nd ranked lefty SP in MILB and this season one has to wonder how long his current back problem will linger and will it have any future ramifications ?

        • Ted Nelson

          A whole lot of analysts would disagree with you about what he accomplished in 2011. He was 20 last year in AA and AAA.

          Most people who make these lists don’t drop people based on 2 week samples for a reason. It’s pretty ridiculous.

          While you point out the downside in everything, there’s an upside in everything too. We might get a lot out of Pineda this year. Banuelos back might be fine in a few weeks. Betances might settle back to at least where he was last season. Any number of other guys might step up.

  • steve s

    I voted a 9 as I was worried about the offense coming in but Tex and Swisher have me unexpectedly comfortable on that front. On the long-term front cannot really feel good about the Banuelos/Betances projections at this point. I am more of a Hughes fan than most so I still expect him to come through. As to Pineda my issue wasn’t the trade as much as it was how imprudent it was to pull the trigger on the trade before really knowing why Pineda’s second half/2011 performance had declined. The “physical” the Yanks gave him (did they even weigh him?) seems to have been done in haste. IMO that trade would have been there after spring training started (Pineda wasn’t being shopped except to Cashman it appears to me) and the Yanks could have better seen whether there were any lingering issues related to his 2nd half decline.

    • gc

      “The “physical” the Yanks gave him (did they even weigh him?) seems to have been done in haste.”

      That’s some serious talking out of your ass going on right there.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Oh wow. I missed that.

        That’s some seriously masterful use of the anal sphincter for sure.

      • steve s

        Really? Why don’t you let us all know the details since you seem to be so confident that you know more about how the Yanks conducted the physical.

        • gc

          You first.

        • CP

          They apparently did an MRI during the physical, and it came back clean.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          I think it’s quite ridiculous for any of us to be able to make any sort of comment on the motivation of emotional state of team before conducting a physical.

          Any franchise that half-asses a physical before a major acquisition is incredibly stupid.

          If you think this franchise is that stupid, I really have to question why you are rooting for it.

        • Havok9120

          Eh? YOU’RE the one taking a leap, not us. From what I recall, an MRI was included but that’s the only real detail we have. NOTHING we’ve heard backs up your assertion that the physical was half-assed.

      • jjyank

        This. I’m sure the Yankees weighed him, that’s a pretty basic part of a physical. Considering they gave him an MRI prior to the trade tells me that they were at least trying to be pretty thorough.

        And this myth of his second half decline is getting annoying. I thought that we were beyond simple ERA analysis to make judgements like that.

        Here are some numbers from Pineda’s second half in 2011:

        9.3 K/9
        3.16 K/BB (which is virtually the same as his first half ratio)
        40 point increase in BABIP

        His peripheral remained very, very good in the second half. And all this was in a smaller sample than his first half numbers because Seattle was skipping his starts as the season went on to manage his workload. We like to discredit bad performances by CC at points last year because of the 6 man rotation. Pitchers a creature of habit and some guys pitch better on a 5 day schedule, so that may be a factor too.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          I’m sure the Yankees weighed him…

          The kid was 20 lbs. overweight according to Cashman and there were three weeks between the physical and the first day of Spring Training. A 23-year-old that size could gain weight in his sleep. He probably wasn’t overweight at the time of the trade physical. I doubt the Yankees just ignored it.

          • Robinson Tilapia

            Can we confirm that they used an actual medical scale and didn’t just pass him by a supermarket on the way to the press conference?

            Also, was there a trick “sneak your foot onto the scale” right before the measurement performed by, say, Robbie Cano? You know how those Dominicans are.

          • Ted Nelson

            20 lbs in 3 weeks is a whole lot for any age kid. I would guess that they did weigh him and he was heavier than the season before, but they weren’t going to change their entire analysis of the trade based on a cosmetic thing.

        • steve s

          So to wrap things up based on the foregoing responses the conclusions are:

          1) Yanks were not surprised when Pineda came in overweight as they, of course, weighed him during the physical and found his weight not to be an issue.

          2) There was nothing to be concerned about Pineda’s second half performance (then or in retrospect).

          3) Same front office that brought you Pedro Feliciano shouldn’t be questioned at risk of having to go root for another team.

          Thanks for all the well-thought out reasoned responses fellows!

          • Robinson Tilapia

            Holy cherrypicking.

            Pedro Feliciano was a dumb signing, as it just about every example of any team giving a mid-30’s middle reliever a multi-year deal. This one was especially stupid because the Yankees, in no way, actually needed the guy.

            However, at least one team makes a mistake like this just about every season.

            • Robinson Tilapia

              …flapjack!

              • jsbrendog

                +1

          • gc

            “Well thought out” and “reasoned” would have been for you to NOT automatically jump to the wild speculation that just because Pineda is hurt, the Yankees must have been negligent or downright incompetent when they gave him his physical. So spare us the persecution complex on this one.

            • steve s

              What I said was the physical seems to be have done in haste. Negligent and downright incompetent are your words.

              • Havok9120

                Oh, please.

                I’m done. This is just silly.

          • Havok9120

            So you’re going to ignore our pleas for you to provide any evidence you have of your claims? You’re just going to ignore the evidence we present, mock us some, and then say “the front office is stupid and we shouldn’t trust it.”

            Why? Why even bother if your goal isn’t to actually have a discussion? If you’re just going to declare something, announce that you’re correct, ignore all counter arguments, and then announce your correctness again, then why even respond to us?

            • steve s

              My original (and really only point which was consistenly ignored) is that I thought the Yanks acted in haste and could have waited to make the deal until after spring training started to see if there was an issue with Pineda once he started throwing since he was shut down and less effective at the end of the year (and even if you believe all the data means conclusivley that he was as effective in both the first and second half the very act of having to be shut down to manage his innings should in and of itself raise an eyebrow). My original point simply is based on what would have been more prudent to do not on any evidence to be presented (none of us know the details of the physical but if you think that ownership isn’t going to probe those results and the procedures involved if Pineda is seriously injured then you don’t think much about the intelligence of Yankee ownership). Do you think the Yanks still would have made the deal if Pineda was only throwing 90 in his first few spring training assignments and looked out of shape? To me the risks of the deal not being there in a few weeks pales in comparison to having been more prudent. By the way, saying “you are speaking out of your ass” is not really a great discussion starter for me. It would also be nice for discussion purposes if responders responded to the words I actually stated then their own made-up versions of those words.

          • Ted Nelson

            Do you really think they didn’t weigh him at the physical?

            What is your concern about his 2nd half of 2011?

            • steve s

              Concerns were:

              1) Innings needed to be managed in second half;
              2) Less effectiveness as measured by the following:

              .198/.269/.315 (first half)
              .236/.298/.391 (second half)
              WHIP – 1.03 (first half); 1.22 (second half)
              ERA – 3.03 (first half); 5.12 (second half).

              It is not an unreasonable stretch to say Pineda’s second half was less effective comparatively (not saying it was terrible in comparision) and that, combined with the shut down, should have led the Yanks to be more cautious.

              • Ted Nelson

                All of that fits in with a rookie pitcher being a rookie pitcher as much as possible shoulder damage, though. You’ve got nothing that points to shoulder damage.

                • Plank

                  He’s on the DL for shoulder pain. That points to shoulder damage.

    • pat

      Did anyone know Mat Latos was on the market?

      • jsbrendog

        no, cause cashman sucks. ergo….

  • Jimmy

    Went from ~two years at 8 down to 7 a couple weeks ago based on a combination of Hughes’ continuing struggles, Pineda’s injury & now Banuelos getting knocked around. Those three guys have a big impact on the near future of the team with the $189 goal coming up. Any one of those turns around and I’ll be back at 8.

  • Tom Lin

    1. Hughes finds his way back to a good pitcher or at least be able to give us average innings.
    2. Pineda is diagnosed with no serious structural damage on his shoulder.(depends on today’s MRI result.)
    3. Manny Banuelos finds his command back.
    4. Dellin Betances finds his command back(which I thought was never going to happen)
    5. Ivan Nova keeps improving his K/BB, K/9 and gets back his groundball rate.

    If none of these 5 happened this year, I go with 6. Our rotation will be a very big question mark…

    • CS Yankee

      BTW, the ledge misses you.

    • Havok9120

      It definitely is, and 1-4 are definitely reasonable.

      5 tho….

      Nova is K’ing 9.47/9 and walking .95/9 (!!!!). Not sure how he can keep improving that. And any long term improvement in GB/rate will almost have to come out of the K rate. I’d be happy with this or a lesser version of this with more groundballs. Expecting him to keep the Ks while regaining all of his GBs isn’t very realistic. That would effectively make him an ace, and he isn’t one.

  • Paul VuvuZuvella

    Was an 8 prior to Pineda trade, a 9 ever since. Will clock in at 8.5 today (rounded up to 9 for the voting portion of the program) pending the MRI results.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Imagine the comments section is there’s actual structural damage. This may be a good day to look at the celebrity gossip blogs more. I know I’ve got DListed.com bookmarked for a rainy day.

      • pat

        Reddit.com, baby. You could lose years at that site.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Some may head straight to the porn if there’s labrum damage.

          • Manny’s BanWagon

            …or head straight to Cashman’s house for a lynching.

            • Robinson Tilapia

              Well, this is all about what we’re going to do to avoid dealing with those folks.

              • Manny’s BanWagon

                I’ll just go to overthemonster to see some real misery for laughs.

                • Robinson Tilapia

                  They’ll actually have some sort of “dead rabbit bounce” if there’s bad news about Pineda. Avoid.

      • Havok9120

        Even if there ISN’T its going to be nuts. Half will just assume the MRI is wrong, just like they did for the last 2 MRIs.

  • Monterowasdinero

    CC has got to command his fb better. He is nibbling on the outside corner at 91-92/falling behind and that is not good enough for him.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      He does this every year. He’ll be in Beast Mode soon.

    • BK2ATL

      I’m not sure what’s up with the decreased velocity. Maybe he’s building up the arm still. I don’t know. Just not used to seeing him top out at 92, when he could ring it up at 98 in the past.

  • BK2ATL

    I’m at a 9 still.

    Pineda’s setback and Gardner’s elbow should cause pause, but the team and organization is built to withstand this. We have TONS of SP for a change, ready to go. Pettitte is a couple of weeks away, maybe less. Nova hasn’t lost in many months, which means he’s keeping us close or winning, deep into games. Hughes is…..???? Garcia’s magic appears gone. But we have quality arms in Phelps, Warren and Mitchell ready to step in at a moment’s notice.

    Ibanez appears to have erased most doubts about the signing by contributing much more than expected and playing a decent, small-samaple OF. Chavez hit bombs in Fenway. Nunez, besides his fielding, is showing why the top brass love having him in the mix. Even Stewart has contributed. Our bullpen is the best in MLB.

    This might be Mariano’s last year, and it also appears that we’re built to make a deep run in the postseason, possibly winning #28.

    On the farm, while Banuelos and Betances continue to struggle with their control, Williams, Sanchez and Campos continue to impress even more. Outside of IF depth, we’re pretty loaded with down-the-line prospects.

  • Manny’s BanWagon

    Dropped from an 8 to a 7 until we get the results back of Pineda’s arthrogram today.

    It’s amazing how quickly starting pitching depth gets used up now that Pineda and Banuelos are injured, Freddy is useless, Betances has sucked, Hughes and Kuroda have been mediocre.

  • Robinson Tilapia

    What’s lost here in the typical hyperbole about pitching development is the actual grain of truth that exists in the complaining.

    I actually do think that, in order to move forward in a financially healthy manner, the Yankees are going to have to successfully transition two of Hughes, Pineda, Phelps, Mitchell, Warren, Banuelos, and Betances from where they are to actual solid rotation members. No matter how bullish (or not) you are on them, or the franchise, that’s not easy for any franchise to do.

    It’s a shame that we have to spend all are time defending against/making fun of those who want to take that and stretch into a completely direction.

  • CS Yankee

    A 9, I’m pissed that they only took two in Boston.

    They are only 4-3 against playoff type teams, the SP hasn’t been worth much less a couple of starts, 3-5 hitters are finally heating up, Jeet turns 29 in June (or he thinks that), the bullpen is real solid, and Joe owns a binder.

    These are all good things, whereas;
    1) 2 of the losses could have gone either way.
    2) CC will heat up, ‘roda will learn, Hughes will burn (in hell or the pen), and Andy seems to be danday (so far).
    3) While the Tiger have the best 3-4 hole hitters, we have the best 3-5 hitters in baseball. They will arrive and strive.
    4) Jeet is playing like its a contract year, or like he should have in his last contract year. That cat must of died from eating a ballon, cause it is bouncing high.
    5) Soriano is worth 13M$ per year because the BoSox can’t have him and he is our 3rd best but about 350% better than their “Ace”.
    6) Joe catches a lot of crap, but at least he isn’t doing the “hunch” or “knows baseball” BS that we always hear. He may need better data, but at least he is trying to use it.

    Way, way solid 9. I’m real concerned with anyone voting below a 7; if you want perfection you better record all the games and only watch the victories.

    • Havok9120

      The 30 people voting a 6 definitely get me to raise an eyebrow. I mean….yikes. That’s got to be a combo of incredibly high standards and paranoia. Of the people below 6, I assume most of them are either joking or trolling, but some are certainly serious. Fandom is a strange thing.

  • 42isNotMortal

    8.

    Enjoying our offensive output despite shaky RISP beginnings and a relatively docile start for the 3-5 hitters. Most concerned about Ibanez’s lack of range/downright ability in left screwing the Yanks. Should be fine tonight assuming Jones starts against Holland, but something to watch anyways.

    I hope the dye clears Pineda, but Andy throwing 87.7% of his pitches for strikes last time out and seemingly well on the road to returning certainly softens the loss of Pineda.

    Very excited for this difficult, but telling stretch of schedule.

  • OMG! Bagels!

    I voted at a 7 because I think that when the offense is hot, it’s hot and when it’s not, it’s not so you have to depend on the consistency of the rotation.

    I don’t see consistency yet except from Nova and I expect it from CC (and am sure he will deliver on it).

    If Pineda was healthy and Petitte was guaranteed to be in true Andy form, I wouldn’t be so worried. The bullpen and offense can only bail out a bad start so many times and some days the offense simply won’t have it or the other team’s pitching will shut them down. We beat up on a horrible Boston bullpen and while that was fun and all, we can’t expect to come back from 9 run deficits on a regular basis.

  • CJ

    4-2 or better vs Texas and Detroit I’ll move to a 9 next week. 2-4 or worse a 6. Big week no doubt about it And not interested in seeing team right the ship against Baltimore.

    • Ted Nelson

      You’re really serious, huh?

  • LiterallyFigurative

    9, again.

    My biggest concern is Pineda and his long-term health.

    Otherwise, I’m good. There are always ups and downs to player’s season.

    So long as there are no long-term DL stints for the hard-to-replace guys (CC, Robbie, Tex, Grandy), why worry?

  • Fin

    My confidence is still a 9. I always felt Hughes would be just ok, and the number 5 starter. I didnt think Freddy would be anywhere near as good this year as last year, and didnt expect him to be in the rotation long. I will still bet on the Yankees starting pitching of CC, Nova, Kuroda, Petite, Hughes/Phelps/Warren/DJ being a good pitching staff when all is said and done. I think the Yankees would be just fine without Pineda this year, but if he has structural issues, he could be a big issue long term.

    The Yankees have arguably the best offense and bullpen in baseball. Brett Gardner in my opinion is the easiest position player to replace, so his injury effects depth more than wins and losses. The only concern I really have for this year is injuries piling up. Right now, I just dont see anyone having a significantly better chance of winning the WS than the Yankees.