Jan
20
Fan Confidence Poll: January 20th, 2014
By2013 Season: 85-77 (637 RS, 671 RA, 77-85 pythag. record), didn’t qualify for playoffs
Top stories from last week:
- According to a report from Japan, the Yankees were one of five teams to submit a formal offer to Masahiro Tanaka before his self-imposed deadline last Thursday. All of the offers were worth more than $100M across six years. The Yankees are not going to make any moves until the Tanaka situation is resolved.
- Alex Rodriguez‘s lawyer officially filed suit seeking an injuction in federal court on Monday, which released the details of arbitrator Fredric Horowitz’s ruling. A-Rod said the suspension “could be a big favor” from MLB while Hal Steinbrenner said he has “not thought about 2015.”
- The Yankees avoided arbitration with their five eligible players by agreeing to one-year contracts with Brett Gardner ($5.6M), David Robertson ($5.215M), Ivan Nova ($3.3M), Shawn Kelley ($1.7625M), and Frankie Cervelli ($700k). Vernon Wells was officially released.
- Injury Updates: Derek Jeter (leg) is expected to begin baseball activities today. Slade Heathcott (knee) had minor surgery earlier this offseason and may not be ready for the start of Spring Training. Both Ty Hensley (hips) and Manny Banuelos (elbow) are on normal throwing programs and will be ready for the start of camp.
- A potential third base option came off the board when Mark Reynolds took a minor league deal from the Brewers. The Yankees continue to look for a late-inning reliever and they’ve requested Ervin Santana’s medical records in case they’re unable to sign Tanaka.
- Expanding instant replay has been officially implemented for the 2014 season.
- CC Sabathia left Legacy Sports to join Jay-Z’s Roc Nation Sports.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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6. Until the Yankees shore up the rotation & the BP this team is still pretty weak.
6. Guarded confidence as to Tanaka. Still too big a field to be too confident, but I’m not NOT confident.
This, of course, has resulted in a compulsive need to tell my wife and two year-old every fifteen minutes that there is, in fact, no new Tanaka news.
Tanaka in pinstripes changes things. The six simply assumes there will be some improvement, whatever that may be, by when it matters.
overall future ?
2015:
1B Tex
2B ?
SS ?
3B ?
LF ?
CF Ellsbury
RF Beltran
DH ?
C McCann
SP:
CC
?
Nova
?
?
not entirely confident in NY´s overall future. 2014 could be an entertaining one IF they sign Tanaka, find a better alternative for 3B and bolster the pen.
right now a 6 and could go up a notch or two if they improve the roster. 2015 will require a new batch of FA signings and hopefully the farm system will sprout a couple of decent contributors.
Yes.
Whether they land Tanaka or not, though, let’s not confuse the fact that this team puts some lines in the sand on spending with them still having the means and desire to do what they have to do.
If the pieces they like aren’t there, we’ve got to be a bit more accepting with the task of getting beyond the last generation taking more than one season.
What’s the latest on Michael Pineda? Jim
Apparently he will report to ST on time and compete for starting spot. Like Ty and ManBan, Pineda will be on a normal throwing program….We need him badly!!!!
And let’s hope the Yankees told him to lay off donuts, etc.
7.
The spending spree, regardless of the players, shows the Yankees realize they need to leverage their greatest strength. Not signing ten year deals is good because it opens up a star contact 3 years earlier.
Am actually somewhat excited for the prospects.
Think cc bounces back.
Think Tanaka signs.
Bp worrisome but it’s the easiest part of a club to build.
After several disappointing seasons from the system and top prospects, this is the year that the Yanks’ minor league system could make a huge significant jump to be among the top in majors. A lot to look forward to at all levels this year. ManBan, Hensely, Heathcott, Bird, Clarkin, Jagielo, and Judge just to name a few. For me, I am the most interested in Hensely. Is he going to be a Brackman or Joba, moving up the ranks?
I’m usually a 9 but can be talked into an 8. Staying in the same list and going 9. A lot of commentators have zero perspective about this team in relation to the rest of MLB. Do they have their issues – yeah. However, who doesn’t? Let’s look at the NYY and think the worst and look at other team’s and think the best. I’m 44 and lived through the 80′s and early 90′s and there is a difference. The WC does help greatly to be a playoff team. This team, despite starting 3rd stringers last year was competitive. I see no reason why this team can’t as well.
Now competitive does not mean playoffs just fighting for the playoff’s with the chance to make it in. I see no reason. Boston will be dropping off from last year’s team and no one thought they would do what they did. Just about everything went right for them. Could it happen again? Could Boegarts and Bradley step in and be stars immediately? Could Middlebrooks actually have more than 1 good month? They are not a given. Potential – YES. Given – NO.
Now competitive does not mean playoffs just fighting for the playoff’s with the chance to make it in.
With two wildcards and even a $189m (for schitzengiggles) payroll, that’s a pretty low bar to clear. You’re talking a .500 club – which is eminently doable every year with the kind of money the Yankees have. The Yankees will never be like Houston or Miami or Oakland and try to field a team with less than a $50m payroll that loses 100 games (although the 2015 Yankees might do that with a $150m payroll – zing! – in which case they will definitely lose the $/WAR championship).
MLB set that bar, not the Yanks. It’s not their fault it takes less to be there. The goal is still being there.
It is easier to get to the PS, but harder to get to the WS. In the past years, losing the ALDS had been very frustrating. Now, blowing the whole season by losing a 1 game playoff is going to be brutal.
The new system hurts us badly, as we have always retooled with late season trades/salary dumps. Now, there are far fewer of those.
To add, spending money doesn’t even guarantee a .500 record. In the last decade – let’s ask some of the Orioles, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox and Angels teams that had top-5 payrolls and losing records. Let’s also talk to last year’s Blue Jays.
Preaching to the choir there.
The fan desperation around spending after years of blaming spending amuses me to no end. “It’s not your money,” they say, after years of yelling that overspending was a bad way to do business.
THIS.
Please only overspend if it is only for the one guy I want, or else its all shit and… wait for it……
Cashman. Has. Failed.
I think the Option B’s and C’s are deeper thus far, but some of the Option A’s should be Option B’s. That’s not where we were at this point last season. Still, I agree 100% with you. Ignore the number attached to votes sometimes. Your 9 and my 6 sound awfully similar.
Now if a 6 turned out to be a 9, I don’t mind….no, I don’t mind…..
#jimi
Not at all confident. This is not a good team. The best players, arguably, are people who never played for the Yankees – Ellsbury, Beltran, Mccann and Tanaka, if we sign him. I feel like there is more downside potential in 2014 then in 2013. There are a lot of older players and older players with question marks. Poorly constructed from top to bottom and I don’t know what their long – term gameplan is to fix.
A LOT more upside potential than 2013 too. Tex/Jeter coming back strong, McCann being the best backstop we’ve seen since 2007 Posada, a team that could potentially steal 150 bags from the outfield alone…
I’ a 6 after a perennial 7/8.
Once again, we are in desperation mode and overpaying for FAs and sacrificing the future:
Ellsbury: $22m/yr? Terrible. He’s a very nice player, but $153m is crazy. He will be nice for some years, and terrible for some. Why is it when the Sox are smart and let a guy go, we then vastly overpay for him?
McCann: Decent. He may even make the 14 WAR he needs to make his contract worth it.
Beltran: Maybe good this year, probably sucks in 2016.
The only way we could have continued to maintain an ‘Every Year is a Post Season’ was to develop/supplement a fair number of players from the farm. People keep thinking that our dominance came from leveraging our bankbook. Not true. While we have always supplemented our teams with ‘hired guns’, our dynasty was built on the backs on Jeter, Andy, Mo, Jorge and Bernie.
We should have shitcanned this year and kept the 3 picks, and gotten under $189m… resetting the Tax clock. A 4th decent pick would have come from an under .500 finish. While it would have been painful, we would have all kinds of options and flexibility going into 2015.
Now we will pay $25m/yr for a SP who could be a good #2, but could just a easily be league average. He will get elite money, having never thrown a pitch in MLB. But we have backed our way into a corner. We can’t win (this year) without him, but even with Tanaka, I don’t know If we are a PS team. We certainly won’t be a dominant team.
Was it too much to ask for our fans to allow us 2 rebuilding years every 20 years?
Things are different now than 10 years ago. Other teams have lots of money, while the CBA continues to intentionally hinder us.
I will root for this team as I have since ’65, and hope to watch them in October, but I really think we have hurt our immediate future.
Let’s hope that the Steinettes are willing to go to a $250m/yr payroll (with another $25m in tax), because that’s what it’s going to take.
I agree you could make a case the best course of action would be to shitcan 2015 and build for the future but I don’t think the FO could stand to see an empty stadium or ratings at YES plummet any further. That decision is all about ecomonics, not displeasure from the fans
Every upper tier FA is gonna get “overpaid”. That’s why i think it’s comical people bitch about paying too much for Tanaka. The 25 year old FA pitcher with top of the rotation stuff who you don’t have to “overpay” to sign has never and will never exist.
I definitely agree the biggest problem here isn’t willingness to spend money, it’s the failures from the farm.
Here’s my question for you. The Yankees shitcan 2014, as you say. Don’t sign anyone. They are swimming in money next season. So what do they do about the outfield? Who are they signing, since they didn’t bother signing any this year?
They have literally no outfielders under contract in this scenario, and the free agent outfielders are terrible next year. The three best outfielders are pretty much Gardner, Alex Rios, and Nick Markakis. It’s great to have tons of money, but it’s not a vacuum. Not everyone is a free agent every year. So you’d have saved all of that money to end up with a mediocre to bad outfield and a mediocre at best catcher (next year is pretty much Russell Martin and a bunch of crap). The truth is, the offense needed a lot of work, and next year (pending extensions, Kershaw’s already off, if Scherzer and Bailey sign extensions the pitching market starts drying up fast too) is a strong pitching market but a mediocre to bad market for hitting (third base is pretty solid if they decide to ditch A-Rod, but that’s it).
I understand what you’re saying about rebuilding, but I think you would have had an awful team this year and a mediocre to bad team next year too under the scenario you’re putting out there, because there’s nothing to spend all those great savings on.
You can’t have a great team without great pitching! The Yanks have work to do. I don’t care who is in the lineup if you don’t have the pitching you are not going to win. Cashman has definitely improved the lineup but I hope they get help for the rotation and bullpen before the season starts.
4. Givin the current state of the Yankees infield , lack of trade prospect to go out make an upgrade, and nothing ready down there to help the infield in 2014.
4.
I’d be a 5-6 with Tanaka but even if they sign him, plenty will have to go right for them to make the playoffs. The infield is projected to be historically bad at this point and it’s not like they have anything on the farm to plug in at 2nd, SS or 3rd if things are going badly.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb.....istory-mlb
The bullpen is Robertson and a bunch of question marks and even the top 2 starting pitchers come with concerns If CC can bounce back and if Kuroda can avoid another collapse down the stretch.
I hope I’m wrong but I see this team winning somewhere in the low to mid 80s.
Thank you for the link maybe more people will see just how bad the Yankees infield is at it’s current state and could possible get worse. I have been saying it all along that the Yankees did upgrade their outfield and DH but their infield is still the cycle of misfits that we are trying to get away from but can’t due to the lack of prospects.
If the Yankees sign Tanaka I’d like to see the Yankees package Gardner for an infielder that would leave either 2b, 3b, up in the air. SS is not @ 100% Anything ccan happen but. I’m willing to go into the season with a platoon at one position not 2 and possible 3. Yankees need better infield help I’m guessing they are waiting to see what happened with Tanaka and then might move Gardner? Who knows but going into 2014 with the current infield is going to be a disaster.
I voted 5.
The rotation is still very weak but could gain a big boost if the Yanks win the bidding for Tanaka. Ideally, I would like the Yanks to sign Tanaka and Ubaldo Jimenez but that may be a bit too unrealistic.
That infield is a disaster. You have no idea if Mark Teixeira’s wrist is truly okay, Brian Roberts is the very definition of injury prone, Jeter’s very dicey, and Kelly Johnson is your starting third baseman. If Stepehen Drew really is willing to play other positions, than the Yanks really should sign him.
And that bullpen needs another arm or two.
Where are those who are clutch, what infielders grow
Out of this stony market? Son of Cash,
You cannot say, or guess, for you know only
A heap of useless contracts, where the bats whiff,
The ankles break, the hands drop
And the dead scrubs hit no homers, the basemen make no plays,
And the fans no sound of postseason. Only
There is shadow under this suspension,
(Come in under the shadow of this suspension),
And I will show you something different from either
Boras at morning striding behind you
Or Jay Z at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear on the Yankees bench.
(Down to 6)
4. 5 if Tanaka signs with us. But still a .500 team until then.
I did not and will not vote confidence until Tanaka signs somewhere.
TomLoxas: Hearing it is down to #Yankees and #Cubs for Tanaka derby.
Thank goodness this will all be over soon
I have to ask: who the hell is Tom Loxas?
From his profile:
Loxas is most known for being the first to break the story of Mark Cuban being eliminated in his bid to purchase the Chicago Cubs in September of 2008, some two months before the Chicago Sun-Times ran the story. Loxas was also first to report Dan McNeil’s return to WSCR.
Loxas reports have been featured on Deadspin, Chicago Tribune.com, and lauded by Matt Spiegel and Dan Bernstein of WSCR 670 am, Dave Kaplan of Comcast/WGN am 720, Marc Silverman of ESPN am 1000, and Jon Greenberg of ESPN Chicago.com
His reputation clearly precedes him. Then again, he’s got more sources that I do.
Well Bruce Levine seems to back him up:
MLBBruceLevine: Industry sources believe the Cubs will outbid the field on money and years. None of the clubs know other teams bids.
—
Then again, David Waldstein heard the same thing except with the Yankees. Rumors are fun!
A solid 6…
will move to a high 7 if Tanaka goes with the NYY…
will move to an 8 if Tanaka and some IF or RP signings occur.
will move to a 9 if Tanaka and Jimenez occur.
will move to a 10 if Tanaka, Jimenez, Balfour and an Arod appeal prevail (beyond Lotto odds there)
Right this very second, a 5. I think this is a .500 team right now, with a very solid offense (a couple weak spots in the infield, but overall a much improved from last year offense, and even Kelly Johnson should outhit half the guys the Yankees were throwing out there everyday last year…Brian Roberts, who knows what they’ll get), but the pitching is mediocre, with question marks pretty much everywhere. I think Kuroda will be solid, but he’ll be 39 in a couple of weeks, and you can’t completely ignore the last month and a half. Nova looked great last year, but he’s never exactly been a consistent pitcher. I’m hopeful he’s found something now, but until we see it for a full season, it’s hard to trust him. Sabathia, who knows what we’ll get? We have no idea what we’ll get from Pineda…it’s not that he has amazing stuff but needs to show it in the majors or whatever (where I’d be more confident the stuff will help him pitch well, ala Tanaka or a top prospect), it’s that we don’t know how his stuff will play anymore. And everyone else is at best a 5th starter, if not worse.
As for the bullpen, I trust Robertson, but yikes. Thornton is fine as a lefty specialist but shouldn’t be anything more at this point. Kelley is fine, but as the second best pitcher in your bullpen? I’m guessing one of Warren/Phelps makes the bullpen (or both, if Pineda is the 5th starter and they sign another pitcher), but neither is really amazing. They’re acceptable. Same with Claiborne.
If they sign Tanaka I’ll be much more confident, say a 7. Tanaka is obviously a question mark as well, but I love that he’s a 25 year old with great stuff. If they miss out on Tanaka but sign Jiminez, I’d probably call it a 6. I love Jiminez keeping the ball in the park and his potential, but he was so bad for a good portion of the last two years that it’s hard to trust him. Not sure Garza or Santana would even bump it up to a 6 for me, both give up a ton of home runs and this is not the ballpark for that.
Tanaka or Jiminez (preferably Tanaka) and a reliever better than Kelley would probably move it to an 8. I think that’s about where I’d top out short of something incredibly unexpected happening. Maybe a 9 if they actually signed Tanaka AND Jiminez AND a reliever better than Kelley, but I don’t expect that to happen.