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The Yankees Should Sign Patrick Corbin

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(Brian Davidson/Getty Images)

The Yankees made the first big splash of the 2019 offseason last week with the acquisition of the excellent James Paxton. The move instantly made the Yankees a more talented team, and there is a decent argument to be made that Paxton will be the best available pitcher of the offseason. But the Yanks still only have four starters, so they are not done yet—and Brian Cashman now has a chance to build one of the game’s dominant rotations by signing Patrick Corbin.

Corbin, a native New Yorker, has always seemed excited about the opportunity to play in the Bronx.  Better yet, he is clearly the best available arm on the free agent market. The 29-year-old lefty represents the Yankees best chance in years to boast a rotation free of major concerns and question marks, and the Yankees should not let this opportunity pass them by.

Mike did a deep dive into Corbin’s profile back at the beginning of the offseason that you should check out, but a few things are worth exploring again.

First, Corbin is fresh off of what is likely the best year of his career. Across 200 innings, he posted a 3.15 ERA (2.47 FIP/137 ERA+) with excellent peripherals, striking out over 30 percent of batters faced, walking only 6 percent and inducing a ground ball nearly half of the time. Even though Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference quantify his season a bit differently (6.3 fWAR versus 4.6 bWAR), the fact remains that Corbin was a pitcher with few peers in 2018.

He was able to take that leap thanks to a sudden improvement against right-handed batters and noticeable drop in home run rate. He also added a curveball to his arsenal, which includes two fastball variations, a changeup and one of baseball’s best sliders. Perhaps the addition of the curveball—which he threw about 9 percent of the time in 2018, meaning roughly 50 percent of his pitches thrown were either slider or curve—helped him take the next step.

But even if Corbin slightly regresses to his pre-2018 production, he would be a smart signing for the Yankees. There are minimal injury concerns with Corbin (he had Tommy John in 2014, but has otherwise been fully healthy) and he has had considerable success outside of 2018, posting a 113 ERA+ in 208.1 innings in 2013, a 115 ERA+ in 85 post-surgery innings in 2015 and a 116 ERA+ across 189.2 frames in 2017. He did have a down year in 2016 (87 ERA+), but that seems more and more to be an outlier. Moreover, his dependability would be a nice insurance policy against the more fragile James Paxton in the Yankee rotation.

Corbin’s peripherals again suggest that he is a worthy investment. In 945 career innings, Corbin has posted a 48.9 percent ground ball rate compared to a 27 percent flyball rate, whiffing about 22 percent of batters faced and walking around 7 percent. His ability to limit hard contact (only a third of batted balls against him are considered “hard contact” and his line drive percentage is closer to a fourth), miss bats and keep the ball on the ground bode well for his future—even if his home run rate would be expected to climb in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

In other words, Corbin is a rare pitcher. Lefties who miss bats as he does are rarely available because they are so valuable, and his dependable track record of above-average innings means that there is much more here than a one-hit wonder. That is why Steamer, one of Fangraph’s projection tools, expects Corbin to post a 3 to 4 win season in 2019 across 197 innings.

There are other, cheaper options (expect Corbin to command a deal worth roughly 5 years and $100 million) on the market, namely J.A. Happ, but those options are cheaper simply because they’re not as good. And when you’re in the Yankees position—swimming in cash with a roster as talented as any in baseball—there is simply no excuse to pinch pennies when addressing the team’s biggest weakness. Adding both Corbin and Paxton would make the Yankees staff, which was already among the most effective in the league but not quite good enough, clearly one of the best in baseball.

The Yankees have long been searching for top-of-the-rotation talent to complement homegrown ace Luis Severino: in 2018, they started Sonny Gray, Domingo German, Jonathan Holder, Lance Lynn or Luis Cessa in 52 games. The Yankees added Paxton to help plug that hole, but they’ll need one more arm—and there’s nobody better suited to do so than Patrick Corbin.

Put Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame

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Moooooose. (Nick Laham/Getty)

Aside from a few scattered trade rumors, new comments from Hal Steinbrenner and the usual free agent speculation, it’s a been a quiet week in Yankeeland—exactly what we’d expect at this time in the offseason. That relative tranquility means it as good a time as ever to revive the annual argument that former Yankee Mike Mussina belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Mussina was an excellent Yankee, sporting a 3.88 ERA (114 ERA+) across 1,553 innings and eight seasons. He was a 5 win pitcher in four of those eight seasons. He is one of the best pitchers to don the pinstripes in recent history and is among the very best free agent signings the Yankees have ever made—a fact that would come up more were his tenure, like Jason Giambi’s, not sandwiched in between championships. Also like Giambi, he played a pivotal role in keeping the Yankees alive in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS and paved the way for Aaron Boone’s heroism.

Mussina will enter 2019 in his 6th year as a potential Hall of Fame inductee with the odds in his favor: players need to be named on 75 percent of the ballots and Mussina’s share has grown steadily each year he’s been eligible. He came closest last year when he was named on 268 ballots (63.5 percent of the vote) and if you scan this year’s cast, it becomes clear that many of his SP peers have candidacies riddled with controversy over either steroids or more grotesque reasons.

In other words, Mussina has a good chance to finally be enshrined in 2019.

His candidacy is a bit of a strange one because his numbers and accolades don’t immediately stand out: he never won a Cy Young or World Series, never led the league in strikeouts and only once led the league in ERA and wins (in separate years, nonetheless). Moreover, he was never truly the best pitcher in a league he shared with Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson. But a deeper dive does reveal that Moose is indeed deserving of Cooperstown.

Mussina was a consistently excellent pitcher for 18 seasons, pitched entirely in the steroid-era AL East, compiling 270 wins, 2,813 strikeouts, a 3.68 ERA (123 ERA+) and 83 career WAR. The latter number ranks higher than Nolan Ryan, Tom Glavine and Curt Schilling, for what it is worth. He was just shy of reaching the 300-win, 3,000 strikeout club, but he retired after a 20-win 2008 season.

In addition to his trademark knuckle-curve and competitive spirit, Mussina boasted a deep arsenal—including a 4 seam fastball, cutter, changeup and splitter—that he could locate with ease, walking only 5.4 percent of the 14,593 batters he faced (2 per 9 innings pitched). He struck out nearly 20 percent of those batters and conceded less than one home run per 9 innings pitched in the heart of the steroid era. His repertoire was unique and it was filthy, the engine beneath a long and dominant career as a pitcher in the most offense-heavy era in league history.

There is something to be said for consistent excellence, and for a 12-season stretch from 1992-2003, that’s exactly what he was. Mussina averaged 215 IP a year with a 3.55 ERA (128 ERA+) over that stretch. For good measure, he sprinkled in remarkably similar seasons to that standard in both 2006 and 2008, rounding out a career worthy of Cooperstown by finally winning 20 games in a season at age 39 in his final season.

Baseball-Reference’s Hall of Fame Scores highlight the disconnect between the fact that Moose was never the league’s best pitcher but was consistently excellent and among the best. The Black Ink score assigns a score for each category in which a player led the league in a particular year. The average Hall of Famer has a score of 40; Mussina 15. But its Gray Ink score, which does the same for each category in which a player was among the top 10 in a particular year, is much more favorable: Moose scores a 250 while the average Hall of Famer scores 185. Jay Jaffe’s JAWs method, another Baseball-Reference tool, ranks him 29th all-time among starters.

In other words, Mussina was always among the best but never the best himself. Falling just short, unfortunately, was a trait that plagued his entire career. Dominant postseasons with the Orioles went to waste, as they did with the Yankees—Mussina started Game 5 of the 2001 World Series to help give the Yankees a 3-2 lead and won Game 3 of the 2003 World Series to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead, but they didn’t win another game in either series. And he famously gave up a 9th inning, two out, two strike base hit to Carl Everett to blow a perfect game in Fenway Park.

Enshrining Mike Mussina in the Hall of Fame will do more than make those near misses and close calls sting (just a little) less. It would also ensure that he is permanently recognized for what he absolutely was: one of baseball’s very best pitchers.

The Yankees Will Get A Better Haul for Sonny Gray Than You Think

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(Presswire)

Brian Cashman, so the saying goes, is a ninja. The reputation is deserved: Yankee moves often materialize quickly and (from our perspective) out of nowhere. The organization as a whole rarely tips its hand with regard to its plans – an impressive feat considering the hyper-intense media environment in which it operates. That is why Cashman’s statements on Sonny Gray, which make it abundantly clear that the Yankees will trade him, have been so surprising.

Cashman’s candor began in earnest last August when he told Michael Kay that “if he winds up somewhere else pitching, he’s going to be pitching extremely well because the equipment is all there, the stuff is there, (but) consistently it’s not playing out right here.” Considering the fact that the Yankees were in the midst of a playoff push, this is about as honest as Cashman could be at the time without outright giving up on a member of the team.

This trend has continued since the end of the season. On October 12, just three days after the Yankees premature postseason exit, Cashman used his annual end-of-the-year press conference to once again make it clear that Gray is persona non grata. “To maximize his abilities,” Cashman said, “it would be more likely best [for him to be] somewhere else.”

As if that wasn’t straightforward enough, Cashman slammed Gray once again last week at the GM Meetings in Minneapolis. The Yankee GM told New York Post reporter Joel Sherman that the team is “going to move him if we get the right deal because I don’t think it is going to work out in the Bronx.”

Cashman’s uncharacteristic candor over Gray is certainly surprising, but there is another element of his statements worth exploring: the seeming belief that Sonny simply can’t make it work with the Yankees. Cashman made it a point in each of the above statements to emphasize that fact.

This suggests that the Yankees believe there is something to the statistics that show Sonny seemingly cannot pitch in Yankee Stadium beyond simple sample size noise. His home/away splits are downright remarkable, as Dominic mentioned in his excellent review of Gray’s season a few weeks ago. Gray pitched to a 3.17 ERA on the road and a 6.98 ERA at home – and those trends were present in 2017 too.

This also suggests that Cashman is right when he expresses confidence that the team will find a compatible suitor for Sonny this offseason. If the Yankees believe that there is something about the organization and Sonny that isn’t compatible, other teams very well may as well. And if that’s the case, teams will see a pitcher with a proven track record of success – including in big postseason matchups – who, for whatever reason, couldn’t make it work with the Yankees. His age, track record as a starting pitcher and success away from Yankee Stadium create a buy-low package that many teams won’t pass up.

Think about it. If Sonny Gray had been a Cleveland Indian this year and had an identical season, many of us would want the Yankees to go after him. Furthermore, Cashman wouldn’t be so blunt about his intentions if he didn’t know there were interested teams out there.

Because the bulk of our familiarity with Sonny comes during his Yankee tenure, it can be easy to forget the track record that made so many of us excited when the team traded for him in 2017. That underlying record hasn’t changed, even if his value is obviously lower than it was then.

This is not to say that the Yankees will receive a huge haul for Sonny as it is to say that it will not be as meager as we might think. I can’t predict what a trade will look like – and even if I did, it would suck – but I do not think the Yankees are in a position where they will just dump Gray for scraps. He still has considerable upside, and some team will take a chance on him. And if Brian Cashman is to be believed, he’ll probably realize that upside– just not in pinstripes.

The Yankees’ Surprisingly Good Pitching

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The Yankees will need to target pitching this offseason if they’d like to win the World Series next year. JA Happ, CC Sabathia, David Robertson and Zach Britton are all free agents and Sonny Gray will almost certainly be traded, leaving the Yankees with significant question marks in their starting rotation and even in their otherwise vaunted bullpen. The good news is that the Yankees have deployed one of baseball’s finest pitching corps over the past two seasons – and there is every reason to believe the same will be true in 2019.

It often feels like conventional wisdom that the Yankees’ one significant shortcoming is its pitching, particularly its starters. And when you look at the team’s major competitors since the beginning of 2017 – Cleveland, Boston and Houston – and compare their rotations, it is easy to see why. But the reality is that the Yankees have been just about as good as those teams at preventing runs over that stretch.

The staff was 7th in baseball in bWAR (21.8) in 2018, ranking only behind Boston, Houston and Cleveland in the American League. They were even better when ranked by Fangraphs, placing second to Houston by fWAR (26.6). The same was true in 2017. The Yankees ranked fourth in baseball and second in the AL in bWAR (23.6) and second overall by fWAR (24.8).

The peripherals also suggest an effective group since the beginning of 2017. In the American League, the Yanks rank 2nd in strikeout percentage, 6th in walk percentage, 5th in home runs percentage and sport the 4th best ERA. The relief corps has been nearly unhittable and while the rotation has not been quite that good, the Yankees have been among the hardest teams to hit in the league.

That is not to say that the team should be complacent – Boston, Houston and Cleveland have been consistently better. If the Yankees want to take the next step, they will need to continue to upgrade their starting rotation and maintain its devastating bullpen.

There is no shortage of available arms to pursue. Yanks will be tied to names like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and – I cannot believe I am saying this – Nathan Eovaldi during the course of free agency as well as the more familiar CC Sabathia and JA Happ. Others, potentially now even an ace like Corey Kluber, will come up as potential trade targets. Bullpen names like Adam Ottavino, Andrew Miller, Craig Kimbrel supplement former Yanks Robertson and Britton.

My best guess is that the Yankees add Corbin and bring back both Happ and Sabathia for a starting five of Severino/Corbin/Tanaka/Happ/CC and re-sign Robertson. Barring a trade, I consider adding Corbin to be the Yankees top priority this offseason and will likely be disappointed if the team doesn’t add him, as the 29-year-old represents a major upgrade.

But whatever pieces the Yankees choose to complete the puzzle is beside the point: the Yankees and their front office deserve our full confidence. The numbers clearly demonstrate that the team has found consistent ways to deploy a dominating bullpen with an above-average starting staff and as long as ownership provides the necessary resources, we should all expect Brian Cashman to assemble one of baseball’s best pitching staffs once again in 2019.

2018 Offseason is Critical for Outlook of the Yankees

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The following is the first post from our newest writer, Bob Montano. You’ll see his work every Saturday morning here at RAB. You can follow Bob on Twitter at @mr_bobloblaw.

(Rob Carr/Getty)

The Yankees face many significant questions as they prepare for what will be their most important offseason in recent memory. Not only are Bryce Harper and Manny Machado younger and more talented than any players to hit the market in recent years, but the Yankees have clear areas to improve the roster. The team will need to find solutions to new problems in the infield now that Didi Gregorius will miss considerable time and it will need to add starting pitching. But any strategy the Yankees have for the offseason is based on whether or not Hal Steinbrenner is willing to flex his financial muscles to augment one of the most talented cores in all of baseball.

Team brass has been open about their goals to get underneath the luxury tax threshold and they finally accomplished that goal in 2018 for the first time by shaving $50 million off of 2017’s payroll, bringing the payroll to a total of $192.5 million. This does more than just save the Steinbrenners money: it also resets the penalty for exceeding the threshold to the minimum 20 percent for each dollar over as opposed to the maximum 50 percent the team had been paying. In other words, should the team exceed the $207 million threshold in 2019 by $10 million, they’d pay a $2 million tax instead of $5 million. It goes without saying that these numbers are significant at the scale of MLB payrolls and it is not clear if the Yankees are willing to take the financial hit.

Hal has long said that teams do not need a $200 million payroll to win the World Series and that has technically proven to be true – but the reality is that the league has changed in recent years. Many MLB teams have been reticent to add salary, treating the luxury tax as a de facto salary cap, and many teams simply don’t appear interested in spending to win. This presents an opportunity for the Yankees that they should not squander.

Not only do the Yankees have a roster that is as well-positioned for success over the next five years as any in baseball, but they are an exceptionally wealthy franchise. If most other teams are unwilling to spend – and we’ll have to see if this offseason is a repeat of last year’s, but I don’t expect many surprises – then the Yankees simply have no excuse to waste their biggest competitive advantage.

The Red Sox are a perfect illustration of why this is the case. Boston had a frustrating 2017, with a regular season that felt underwhelming — despite the team’s success on paper — and a disappointing first-round exit at the hands of the eventual champion Houston Astros. A big reason it felt like the team was underwhelming was its offense, so the Red Sox aggressively pursued J.D. Martinez. They eventually signed him to a five-year, $110 million contract and he hit .330 with a wRC+ of 170 in 2018 alongside Boston’s formidable young core. Thanks in large part to JD’s exceptional season and Mookie Betts’ even better one, the Red Sox are poised to win the World Series after a regular season campaign netted them 108 wins. (For what it is worth, they have the league’s largest payroll by a wide margin.)

Boston was not the only team to follow this strategy to considerable success. The Milwaukee Brewers finished at 86-76 in 2017 and clearly saw an opportunity to improve, signing Lorenzo Cain to a 5 year, $80 million contract. The Brewers added $30 million in salary, and Cain hit .308 with a 124 wRC+ in 2018. Along with likely NL MVP Christian Yelich, Cain helped guide the Brewers to a 96 win season that ended in Game Seven of the NLCS. Much like the Red Sox, the Brewers aggressively added to their payroll and it paid dividends.

Mike estimates that the Yankees will have $50 million to spend after arbitration before surpassing the $206 million cap. That is a significant amount, but it will go fast – especially if the team pursues top talent like Bryce Harper, who is reportedly asking for a 10 year, $350 contract or Manny Machado, who will have similar demands. That is without the additional salary of a potential arm like Patrick Corbin or a lefty bat like Michael Brantley, let alone supporting depth pieces. It does not even consider the fact that key pieces like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino will get significant pay raises through arbitration over the next few years.

We’ve heard a lot about the need to cut salary in recent years, and the team has achieved that goal. Now, the Yankees are a very good team that is on the verge of being a great team — and spending on elite talent in the next few weeks might be the difference. But if they let this moment pass them by, they will have nobody to blame but themselves if they are sitting at home late in October again, watching their bitter rivals beating them at what was supposed to be their own game.