Everyone loves walk-offs, and the Yanks sure have spoiled us this year. Moshe at TYU took the time to recap all 15 of those suckers, from Melky’s 14th inning jack against Oakland to Luis Castillo’s dropped popup to last night’s Kyle Farnsworth special. Good times, good times. Check it out.
Game 159 Spillover Thread
Meanwhile, Boston’s backup backup catcher is pitching…
Game 159: Done at home, temporarily
… and six months later, the Yankees will play the final home game of their season tonight. Of course, the Bombers will be back in the Boogie Down next week to kick off the ALDS, but not after this weekend’s vacation in Tampa. Making the start will be Joba Chamberlain, who in his last time out was brilliant for six innings despite a late, two-run stilllookingforinformationball from David Ortiz. He’ll be opposed by Robinson Tejeda, a Phillies and Rangers cast-off who has found some success in KC despite 47 walks in 68.2 IP.
This game means nothing, but it’s good to see the A-lineup playing. I was worried Joe Girardi would go a little overboard with the whole resting the regulars thing, but I guess not. Here’s your lineup:
Jeter, SS
Damon, LF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Matsui, DH
Posada, C
Cano, 2B
Swisher, RF
Melky, CF
And on the mound, Jobber Chamberlain.
Note: If you crave some meaningful baseball, check out the Twins and Tigers over on ESPN. Carl Pavano vs. Eddie Bonine, Tigers win and they’re three up with just four to play. Twins win, and we have ourselves a race.
Grading Sterling
When the Yanks clinched the AL East Sunday evening, John Sterling let out his usual “Thaaaaaaaa Yankees Win!” warble, with an added twist to include the division race. It was arguably his most … um … enthusiastic call of the season, and Joe DeLessio of The New Yorker graded it out. Despite the lack of buildup leading up to the moment (everyone knew they’d clinch, eventually), Sterling still walks away with a sterling 26.5 pts out of 35, pun intended. Give it a listen and a read, nice laugh to end the workday.
Performing against the best
The Yankees didn’t get to where they are by beating up on the weaklings of the league. After going a combined 2-12 against the Red Sox and Angels in the first half, but rebounded to go 12-2 against those clubs in the second half. We write things like “it’s still early, they’ll figure out,” and we’re usually greeted with “it’s May, it’s not that early” responses, but by gosh, things got figured out long before it was too late. Amazing. But I digress.
Anyway, the Yankees did not get to where they are right now by getting fat against the lesser teams. They lead all thirty big league clubs in AVG (.285, tied with Anaheim), OBP (.363, next is .351), and SLG (.480, next is .453), and before anyone tries The Bandbox Defense™, you should know that the Yanks have a .357 OBP and a .470 SLG on the road, both of which would still lead the big leagues. And as Gordon Edes points out, they aren’t just piling up those numbers against the David Hernandezes and Andy Sonnanstines of the world either.
Allow me to quote:
Best against the best: When the best hitters playing this October face the best pitchers, how can we predict who will come up big? Well, we employed statistics calculated on billjamesonline.net to get an idea. James breaks down how batters fared by the quality of pitchers faced, based on pitchers’ ERA. The best pitchers were considered those with ERAs at 3.50 or less, which generally covers a staff ace and in some cases a No. 2, a closer, and top-shelf setup men.
Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Torii Hunter, Matt Kemp and Orlando Hudson have posted some of the best numbers among the playoff qualifiers against the best pitchers. Cabrera is batting .359 against the best, though just three of his 32 home runs have come in those 142 at-bats. Holliday is batting .352 with six home runs, 22 RBIs, and a .997 OPS against the best, while A-Rod is batting .284 with nine HRs, 22 RBIs, and a 1.014 OPS. Rodriguez, in fact, has more home runs and a higher OPS against the elite class than he had against the dregs.
[snip]
What about some of the big-name boppers? Albert Pujols (.272, four, 12, .804 OPS) has held his own, while Ryan Howard is batting just .224, but has hit 13 home runs and knocked in 27 runs. Derek Jeter is batting .292, while teammate Mark Teixeira has seven HRs and 22 RBIs to go with a .246 average. Manny Ramirez, the most feared bat in the ’08 postseason, has a so-so .279 average with five home runs and 12 RBIs.
The Red Sox lineup, loaded with All-Stars, has not put up numbers against superior pitching. David Ortiz is at .208, five and 15. Four other of Boston’s best hitters are at .220 or lower: Jason Bay (.204), Kevin Youkilis (.204), Dustin Pedroia (.206) and Victor Martinez (.220). Catcher Jason Varitek is batting .139.
Of course the problem with this study is the almighty sample size. It’s wonderful that A-Rod is bringing the pwn to the league’s best arms, but there’s just 34 pitchers in the AL with an ERA under 3.50 (min. 60 IP), and three of them are A-Rod’s teammates. How many plate appearances can he have against the other guys? There just isn’t much predictive value here. A-Rod is no more or less likely to do well in the postseason because of those numbers, and besides, postseason success doesn’t hinge on one guy. Everyone must contribute, and if someone fails, then it’s up to the other 24-guys to pick up the slack. It’s a team effort, and we see it happen every year. Yet again, I digress.
The old adage is that power pitching wins in October, and it’s true. As a team, the Yankees are hitting .273-.380-.478 off power pitches (B-Ref defines “power pitchers” as guys that combine to strikeout or walk at least 28% of the batters they face). That criteria includes pitchers like Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, basically the three best pitchers the Yankees could face in the AL portion of the playoffs. The Yanks have ten such “power pitchers” on their staff, including all five members of the rotation and four of its five best relievers (Al Aceves misses the cut).
Does that bode well for October? It certainly seems like it does. Boston is hitting off .258-.359-.442 off power arms, obviously very good, but the Angels? Just .245-.324-.380. Dee-troit? .229-.319-.389. Suddenly I even better about the Yankees playoff chances than I did before. You?
2010 Draft: Nats clinch top pick
It seemed inevitable pretty much all summer, but once the Pirates took down the Dodgers Monday afternoon, the Nationals officially clinched at least a tie for the baseball’s worst record, thus securing the top pick in the 2010 Draft (they also had the worst record last year, which acts as the tiebreaker). Tampa Bay was the first team in MLB history to have back-to-back first overall picks, taking David Price and Tim Beckham in 2007 and 2008, respectively. It took just two years for another team to turn that trick, and the Nats will have a chance to add Las Vegas uberprospect Bryce Harper to last year’s top choice, righty Stephen Strasburg.
In all likelihood, Pittsburgh and Baltimore will round out the top three selections in some order. By clinching the best record in baseball, the Yanks have locked into the final pick of the first round, #32 overall (Texas and Tampa failed to sign their first rounders). The Yanks could always forfeit that pick for signing a Type-A free agent. Our 2010 Draft Tracker will be up shortly after the end of the season.
Vizcaino, Warren, Paredes & Medchill among NY-Penn League’s top prospects
Continuing with their league top 20 series, Baseball America named Ryan Westmoreland the top prospect of the Short Season NY-Penn League. Four Yankee farmhands made the list: Arodys Vizcaino at #3, Adam Warren at #12, Jimmy Paredes at #14, and Neil Medchill at #18. The subscriber only scouting report on Vizcaino says that he “could have a plus curveball to go with a plus-plus fastball down the road,” but he’ll need to work on his changeup to stick as a starter. An unnamed NL scout loves Warren’s pitchability, and one league manager dropped an Adam Lind comp on Medchill.
The South Atlantic League list comes out this Friday, so get ready for some Manny Banuelos love.