River Avenue Blues

  • About
    • Privacy Policy
  • Features
    • Yankees Top 30 Prospects
    • Prospect Profiles
    • Fan Confidence
  • Resources
    • 2019 Draft Order
    • Depth Chart
    • Bullpen Workload
    • Guide to Stats
  • Shop and Tickets
    • RAB Tickets
    • MLB Shop
    • Fanatics
    • Amazon
    • Steiner Sports Memorabilia

9/10 to 9/12 Series Preview: Minnesota Twins

September 10, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

The Yankees took two out of three from the Mariners this weekend, on the strength of terrific starting pitching and a bit of timely hitting. They remain just 2.5 games up for home-field advantage in the Wild Card game, though, as the A’s swept through the Rangers. The A’s face the Orioles this week, so it’s tough to see them slowing down – and that means the Yankees need to take care of business against the Twins.

The Last Time They Met

These teams played a four-game set back in late April, and it was just as the Yankees were hitting their stride – and the Yankees took all four games by a combined score of 33-11. Some notes from the series:

  • The Yankees won the first game 14-1, with every starter reaching base at least once. Didi Gregorius (via grand slam) and Tyler Austin (now on the Twins) both had four RBI, and Giancarlo Stanton went 4-for-4. The team went 5-for-11 with RISP, to boot.
  • Gregorius had a fairly absurd series, going 7-for-16 with 3 home runs and 9 RBI. By the time Minnesota left town he was hitting .354/.452/.793 on the season.
  • Aaron Judge reached base at least twice in every game, and went 5-for-12 with two doubles, a home run, and six walks overall.
  • Gary Sanchez did this in the final game:

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Jason Castro, Adalberto Mejia, Logan Morrison, and Ervin Santana are all done for the season. Tyler Austin (back tightness) and Miguel Sano (left leg contusion) are both day-to-day.

Their Story So Far

The Twins are 65-77 with a -70 run differential, which is good for second place in the awful AL Central. They have the starkest home-field advantage in baseball, sitting at 41-30 with a +8 run differential at home and 24-47 with a -78 run differential on the road. Unfortunately, they’re hosting the Yankees.

After overachieving a bit last year, the Twins were back to sellers in 2018. They dealt Eduardo Escobar, Ryan Pressly, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, and Brian Dozier heading into the July 31 trade deadline, and sent Fernando Rodney and Bobby Wilson packing in August. The returns in these deals were generally quantity over quality, per most outlets, but the Twins still have some tantalizing young talent.

One of those talented youngsters is Byron Buxton, who has been making headlines for being shut-down by the Twins in what is clearly service time manipulation. He wasn’t good when he played in the majors this year (his 4 OPS+ is a testament to that), but he was brilliant last year and is still just 24. The front office has used the “he’s not fully healthy” and “there’s no place for him to play” arguments; the former may hold water (Buxton denies it), but the latter is tough to swallow when folk like Robbie Grossman and Johnny Field are playing in the outfield.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Paul Molitor has used a slew of different lineups this year, which isn’t terribly surprising given the roster’s talent level, trades, and injuries. Predicting what they’ll trot out there on any given night is anyone’s guess – and I’m anyone, I suppose.

  1. Joe Mauer, 1B – .272/.343/.369, 5 HR, 0 SB, 94 OPS+
  2. Jorge Polanco, SS – .270/.326/.401, 4 HR, 4 SB, 97 OPS+
  3. Eddie Rosario, DH – .289/.326/.482, 23 HR, 8 SB, 116 OPS+
  4. Logan Forsythe, 2B – .236/.314/.304, 2 HR, 3 SB, 69 OPS+
  5. Jake Cave, CF – .257/.307/.476, 10 HR, 1 SB, 109 OPS+
  6. Mitch Garver, C – .260/.331/.406, 7 HR, 0 SB, 99 OPS+
  7. Max Kepler, RF – .226/.320/.414, 18 HR, 3 SB, 98 OPS+
  8. Robbie Grossman, LF – .261/.348/.368, 4 HR, 0 SB, 96 OPS+
  9. Ehire Adrianza, 3B – .249/.302/.374, 6 HR, 4 SB, 83 OPS+

Willians Astudillo (139 OPS+ in 38 PA) will see some time at catcher, and Tyler Austin (108 OPS+) and Miguel Sano (85 OPS+) should get into the starting lineup if they’re healthy.

(Robert H. Levey/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (8:10 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

Gibson has had a mini-breakout this year at the age of 30, posting career-bests in ERA (3.74), ERA+ (118), strikeouts (158), and strikeout rate (22.0%). He has shown flashes of competence throughout his career, and may well have turned the corner via consolidation this year.

Gibson is a legitimate five-pitch guy, with a low-to-mid 90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, a mid-80s slider, and a low-80s curve. He gets a lot of whiffs on the slider and curve when they’re right.

Last outing (vs. HOU on 9/3) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 5 K

Tuesday (8:10 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Kohl Stewart

The fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft, Stewart made his big-league debut on August 12. His climb through the minors was slow and steady, and he did not reach Triple-A until his fifth professional season. Some of that is due to the Twins approach to pitchers, but his unspectacular performance once he reached Double-A certainly didn’t help. Stewart’s a former top-50 prospect, though, and his pedigree still means something as he’s still a month shy of his 24th birthday.

Stewart’s another five-pitch guy, with a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a high-80s change-up, a mid-80s slider, and a high-70s curveball. His stuff’s not too different from Gibson’s, but he hasn’t shown the ability to get whiffs just yet.

Last outing (vs. HOU on 9/4) – 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K

Wednesday (8:10 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Jake Odorizzi

The Yankees beat-up on Odorizzi back on April 23, scoring five runs in 4.2 innings, and putting eight runners on-base. The 28-year-old has had a somewhat rough year, pitching to a 4.57 ERA (96 ERA+) in 147.2 IP with the worst full-season WAR (1.2) of his career.

Last outing (vs. HOU on 9/5) – 4.2 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 4 K

The Bullpen

Trevor Hildenberger inherited the closer mantle when Rodney was dealt, and he’s five-for-five in save opportunities with a 2.61 ERA since then. His overall numbers are solid, with a 4.21 ERA (105 ERA+) and 21.5% strikeouts in 66.1 IP. Taylor Rogers (3.02 ERA and 29.3 K%) is their best hand out there otherwise, with Trevor May (1.65 ERA and 36.4 K% in limited duty out of the bullpen) and the disappointing Addison Reed (4.70 ERA) chipping in from the 6th inning onward.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Willians Astudillo is kind of the position player version of Bartolo Colon, and is generously listed at 5’9″ and 225 pounds. He swings at everything (0.0 BB% and 5.3 K% in the majors, 3.3% and 4.6% in Triple-A), and is fun to watch at the plate and in the field.

Filed Under: Series Preview Tagged With: Minnesota Twins

Yankeemetrics: Sweepless in Seattle (Sept. 7-9)

September 10, 2018 by Katie Sharp

(AP)

Ace Tanaka
The Yankees made sure that there would be no hangover from their miserable blowout loss in the series finale at Oakland, as they rebounded to beat the Mariners on Friday night, 4-0.

The win improved the Yankees to 53-29 all-time at Safeco Field, the best record at the ballpark by any team. They completely dominated the Mariners, who had just four baserunners (three hits, one walk) thanks to another gem from Masahiro Tanaka. It was the first time the Yankees blanked the Mariners while giving up no more than three hits since May 14, 1996 … Dwight Gooden’s memorable no-hitter in the Bronx.

Tanaka was stellar, tossing eight scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks. Only one runner reached third base, and he retired 13 batters in row between a first-inning two-out single by Robinson Cano and a sixth-inning leadoff double by Mike Zunino. Tanaka is the first pitcher in franchise history with a 10-strikeout, no-walk scoreless outing against the Mariners. It was his fifth career double-digit, zero-walk game; the only Yankee with more is Mike Mussina (7).

The brilliant performance also extended his run of dominant ace-like performances since the All-Star break. His 2.30 ERA in the second half of the season is the third-best among AL pitchers (min. 30 IP), behind only Blake Snell (1.42) and David Price (1.78).

Masahiro Tanaka Since All-Star Break:
9 starts
58.2 IP
2.30 ERA
61 K
10 BB
5 HR

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 8, 2018

Gleyber Torres gave Tanaka some early run support with his 23rd home run of the season in the second inning, a two-run bomb that also was his 100th career hit. Torres (21 years, 268 days old) is the youngest Yankee to reach the century-hit milestone since a 20-year-old Mickey Mantle in 1952. He also matched Mantle on this home run leaderboard of franchise legends:

Yankees Most HR Age-21 Season or Younger:

Joe DiMaggio 29 (1936)
Gleyber Torres 23 (2018)
Mickey Mantle 23 (1952)

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 8, 2018

Longballs FTW
The Bombers used their two trademark offensive weapon home runs and almost-homers (sac flies) to beat the Mariners on Saturday night, 4-2. They lead the majors in both categories (232 homers, 51 sac flies) — and by large margins. Entering Sunday, their 34-homer lead was nearly the same as the difference between the second-place teams (Dodgers and A’s, 198) and the 15th place team (Phillies, 165). And their six-sac fly lead was the same as the difference between the second-place Pirates (45) and the eighth-place Diamondbacks (39).

(AP)

Andrew McCutchen got the deep-ball party started when he cranked a leadoff homer in the top of the first. McCutchen is the third different Yankee to hit a leadoff blast this season (Gardner has three and Hicks has one). The last time they had a trio of players each with at least one leadoff homer was 1995, when four guys — Tony Fernandez, Bernie Williams, Luis Polonia, Wade Boggs — did it.

After Seattle tied it up in the third, Giancarlo Stanton put them ahead again in the fifth with a sacrifice fly to right, his 10th with the team. He is one of four Yankees to hit double-digit sac flies and 30 homers in a season:

Yankees 10+ Sac Flies and 30+ HR in a Season:

Giancarlo Stanton (2018)
A-Rod (2010)
Tino Martinez (1997)
Don Mattingly (1985, ’86)

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 9, 2018

The Mariners quickly knotted it up again in the bottom of the fifth, but Austin Romine finally gave the Yankees the lead for good with a solo blast in the seventh. It was his first career go-ahead homer in the seventh inning or later.

(USA Today)

Dellin Betances survived a shaky ninth inning for his third save of the season. He loaded the bases with one out and then struck out Denard Span and Kyle Seager swinging to seal the win. Opponents are 5-for-50 (.100) with the bases loaded against Betances in his career, and he’s whiffed nearly half (28) of them (58). That .100 batting average allowed is the lowest among all active MLB pitchers (min. 50 batters faced).

(AP)

WTF loss to the Mariners
All streaks must come to an end, right? The Bombers domination of the Mariners was snapped in abrupt fashion on Sunday, losing 3-2 on a fantastic game-ending catch by Mitch Haniger with the Yankees potential game-tying run on base. Prior to that loss, they had won seven in a row against the Mariners, and were going for the season series sweep. It would have been the first time ever that the Yankees swept a season series against an AL West team since divisional play began in 1969.

The big story of the game was another RISP-fail showing by the offense, which went 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position. That included a no-out, bases-loaded situation in the fourth inning that resulted in a single run scored when Andrew McCutchen took ball four on a full-count. The Bronx Walkers’ 14 bases-loaded walks are tied for the fourth-most in MLB this season, while their batting average and slugging percentage both rank 23rd.

(USA Today)

CC Sabathia battled through a rough first two innings but was able to limit the damage (two runs) and retired 11 of the final 13 batters he faced. Sabathia’s 2.24 ERA in 15 career starts at Safeco Field is the third-lowest at the ballpark among all pitchers with at least 10 starts there, behind Bartolo Colon (1.98) and Dan Haren (2.00).

Giancarlo Stanton — along with making the final out of the game — ended the no-hitter version of this game early with a first-inning double, his 30th of the season. Round number alert: he is the first Yankee with at least 30 homers and 30 doubles since Robinson Cano in 2012, the first Yankee right-handed batter to do it since Alex Rodriguez in 2008, and the first Yankee DH/outfielder to achieve both marks in a season since Hideki Matsui in 2004.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Andrew McCutchen, Austin Romine, Dellin Betances, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Masahiro Tanaka, Seattle Mariners, Yankeemetrics

Fan Confidence Poll: September 10th, 2018

September 10, 2018 by Mike

Record Last Week: 3-3 (20 RS, 20 RA)
Season Record: 89-54 (730 RS, 580 RA, 88-55 expected record), 8.5 GB in ALE, +10.0 GU for WC spot
Schedule This Week: Three games at Twins (Mon. to Weds.); Thursday OFF; Three games vs. Blue Jays (Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

  • The Yankees traveled to the West Coast and started the week with three games in Oakland. CC Sabathia got hit hard in Monday’s 6-3 loss, but the Yankees bounced back with a 5-1 win Tuesday. Luis Severino and Gary Sanchez were a mess in Wednesday’s 8-2 loss.
  • Following Thursday’s off-day, the Yankees went to Seattle for three games. Masahiro Tanaka was dominant in Friday’s 4-0 win and Austin Romine hit a late homer in Saturday’s 4-2 win. The Yankees couldn’t complete the sweep and lost 3-2 Sunday.
  • Injury Updates: Aaron Judge (wrist) has resumed swinging and could hit on the field this week. Aroldis Chapman (knee) is throwing off flat ground. Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines) suffered a setback and has been shut down. Erik Swanson (groin) and Domingo Acevedo (biceps) were placed on the minor league disabled list.
  • Didi Gregorius has been activated off the disabled list. The Yankees are still easing him back into things following the heel injury, however.
  • Impending free agent J.A. Happ said he is open to re-signing the Yankees. The Yankees were “in the hunt” for Madison Bumgarner at the trade deadline.
  • Triple-A Scranton has advanced to the International League Championship Series for the third straight year.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

Mariners 3, Yankees 2: Too many stranded runners means no sweep in Seattle

September 9, 2018 by Mike

What an annoying end to the six-game West Coast portion of the nine-game road trip. The Yankees wasted a whole bunch of scoring opportunities Sunday afternoon and were unable to complete the sweep in Seattle. The Mariners won the series finale 3-2. The Yankees are three games up on the Athletics in the loss column for the top wildcard spot, but, because they hold the homefield advantage tiebreaker, it is effectively a four-game lead with 19 games to play.

(Presswire)

Sabathia Settles Down
Not a good start to the game for CC Sabathia. After two quick outs in the first inning, the Mariners strung together four straight two-out singles to score two runs. It would’ve been five straight singles had Adeiny Hechavarria not made a nice leaping catch to rob Jean Segura of a line drive base hit. That was the second out of the inning, then the four straight hits followed to give the Mariners a 2-1 lead.

The Mariners opened the second inning with a single and a walk, giving them six baserunners in the span of seven batters. Add in Hechavarria’s leaping catch and it was five hits, one walk, and one line drive out in the span of eight batters. Not good! Sabathia escaped that second inning with a fielder’s choice and a ground ball double play. Following that second inning walk, he retired eleven of the final 13 batters he faced. The two baserunners were an infield single and a single against the shift.

Sabathia’s final line after Chad Green stranded the inherited runner in the sixth: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K on 84 pitches. The Mariners had eight right-handed hitters in the starting lineup and Sabathia had a tough time getting his cutter in on their hands early in the game, hence all those baserunners in the first and second innings. Here are his first and second inning cutter locations:

A few too many cutters out over the plate rather than inside, and the Mariners made Sabathia pay. Things seemed to click in the third inning and he was able to settle down after that. Four straight two-out singles in the first inning was pretty, pretty annoying. At least Sabathia was able to right the ship and keep the Mariners off the board the rest of the way. It is September 9th and the big man has a 3.54 ERA (4.04 FIP) in 139.2 innings. Pretty rad.

A Wasted Rally To Tie The Game
The Yankees struck quickly with back-to-back doubles for a 1-0 first inning lead. It was more like a dropped fly ball and a double though. Giancarlo Stanton lifted a routine fly ball to left, Segura and Cameron Maybin miscommunicated, and the ball fell in. Miguel Andujar then drove a ball into the left field corner for a legitimate double. I love love love scoring in the first inning on the road, especially when it’s made possible by the other team’s screw up.

The Mariners took a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the first, and, for the second time on the road trip, the Yankees loaded the bases with no outs and managed only one run on a bases loaded walk. They did it Tuesday against Jeurys Familia and the Athletics. They did it again in the fourth inning Sunday. Neil Walker, Gleyber Torres, and Luke Voit loaded the bases with three singles. Walker battled Erasmo Ramirez for nine pitches before dunking a leadoff single to center.

Things went downhill after that. Hechavarria swung at three pitches out of the zone to strike out for the first out. A completely non-competitive at-bat. That would’ve been a good time to break out a pinch-hitter now that rosters are expanded. If Didi Gregorius wasn’t available because he’s being eased back into things so soon after returning from the disabled list, fine. Aaron Hicks and Greg Bird were still on the bench though, and Ronald Torreyes and Tyler Wade were available to play the middle infield. Blah.

After Hechavarria’s strikeout, Brett Gardner popped up in foul territory along the third base side for the second out. First pitch of the at-bat too. Kris Negron made a real nice running over-the-shoulder catch. From three straight singles to two quick outs. The rally was on life support. Fortunately the very good and very disciplined Andrew McCutchen came through with the bases loaded walk to tie the game 2-2. What a relief. Here is the at-bat:

Going into the game McCutchen had the third lowest chase rate among the 150 batters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Joey Votto (15.6%), Alex Bregman (17.1%), Andrew McCutchen (18.0%). That’s the top three. (Hicks is fourth at 19.0%). McCutchen took a borderline 2-2 pitch at the knees to work the count full before laying off the 3-2 slider out of the zone. Great at-bat.

The slumping Stanton grounded out to end the inning as the next batter, so the Yankees scored just the one run there. Coming into this game, the Yankees were hitting .238/.281/.385 (78 OPS+) as a team with the bases loaded this season. They rank 21st in AVG, 23rd in OBP, 21st in SLG, and 23rd in OPS+ with the bases loaded. How is a team this good so bad with the sacks full?

Score Without A Hit
What an annoying rally to lose the game. The Mariners scored the go-ahead run in the eighth inning without a base hit and without hitting the ball out of the infield. Dellin Betances, in to face the top of the order in a tie game, walked leadoff man Mitch Haniger on four pitches. Haniger of course stole second on Betances and of course Austin Romine’s throw wasn’t particularly close. Segura’s bunt moved Haniger to third with one out.

With the go-ahead run at third and one out, the Yankees brought the infield in, and they got exactly what they needed. Betances broke Robinson Cano’s bat and the weak grounder went right to Hechavarria. Here’s the moment Hechavarria receives the grounder:

Haniger was dead to rights. Hechavarria gets him with ease with a good throw. Instead, the throw was wide, and Romine couldn’t get back across the plate in time to apply the tag. Haniger slid in safely to give the Mariners at 3-2 lead. Between that throw and the abysmal strikeout with the bases loaded, it was a pretty terrible game for Hechavarria. A walk, a steal, a bunt, and a weak grounder at an infielder who threw wide of home. I hate this sport sometimes.

And, to really rub it in, Haniger made a great full extension diving catch for the 27th out to end the game. McCutchen was on first base after being hit by a pitch and Giancarlo muscled a broken bat looper to shallow right. Seemed like it had a chance to find grass. Haniger made the headlong dive to make the catch. What a frustrating ninth inning, top and bottom halves.

(Presswire)

Leftovers
As is often the case, the Yankees lost Sunday because they stranded a small army of baserunners. Three times Luke Voit was on second base and zero outs. He scored zero runs. The Yankees wasted Voit’s leadoff reach-on-error in the second, Andujar’s leadoff infield single in the fifth, Voit’s leadoff double in the sixth, and Gary Sanchez’s leadoff walk in the eighth. Pinch-runner Tyler Wade made it to third base with two outs in that eighth inning. That was the closest the Yankees came to scoring after loading the bases in the fourth. They went 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position. Gross.

Chad Green was dominant between Sabathia and Betances. He struck out three and retired all six batters he faced in the sixth and seventh innings. It was his first appearance in five days and his second appearance in ten days. I hope to see Green work more multi-inning outings going forward. That’s when he’s at his best. Fewer appearances with multiple innings each time out is better than more appearances with one inning each time out.

Seven total hits for the Yankees. Andujar (single, double) and Voit (single, double) had two apiece. Stanton had his double (“double”), Walker blooped a single, and Torres lined a single. McCutchen, Sanchez, and Gardner each drew a walk. McCutchen was also hit by a pitch. Three hits, three hit-by-pitches for McCutchen as a Yankee.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
ESPN has the box score and updated standings, MLB has the video highlights, and FanGraphs has the postseason odds. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the loss probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The six-game West Coast swing is over and the Yankees are heading to Minnesota for a three-game set. Lefty J.A. Happ and righty Kyle Gibson are the scheduled starters for Monday night’s opener. That’s an 8:10pm ET start because the rest of the world still refuses to adopt Eastern Time. Rude.

Filed Under: Game Stories

Game 143: So Long, West Coast

September 9, 2018 by Mike

(Stephen Brashear/Getty)

The nine-game road trip does not end today, but the six-game West Coast swing does. After dropping two of three in Oakland (bah), the Yankees have won the first two games in Seattle (yay), so this afternoon they have a chance to finish the three-game sweep that would more or less close the door on the Mariners’ postseason hopes. At one point the Mariners were 7.5 games up on a postseason spot. Now they’re 7.5 games back. Rough.

Enough about the Mariners though. The Yankees have a comfortable eleven-game lead on a postseason spot, but they’re only 3.5 games ahead of the Athletics for the top wildcard spot, and getting homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is mighty important. Because the Yankees hold the tiebreaker over the A’s, the magic number to clinch the top wildcard spot is 15 with 20 games to play. Still a lot of work to do. Here are today’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. RF Andrew McCutchen
2. LF Giancarlo Stanton
3. DH Miguel Andujar
4. C Gary Sanchez
5. 3B Neil Walker
6. 1B Luke Voit
7. 2B Gleyber Torres
8. SS Adeiny Hechavarria
9. CF Brett Gardner

LHP CC Sabathia

Seattle Mariners
1. RF Mitch Haniger
2. SS Jean Segura
3. 2B Robinson Cano
4. DH Nelson Cruz
5. 1B Ryon Healy
6. LF Cameron Maybin
7. 3B Kris Negron
8. C David Freitas
9. CF Guillermo Heredia

RHP Erasmo Ramirez


It is cool, cloudy, and rainy in Seattle today. The Safeco Field roof should be closed. This afternoon’s first pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm ET. YES will have the broadcast. Enjoy the game, folks.

Injury Updates: Aaron Judge (wrist) continues to progress with no issues and could take full on-field batting practice during the upcoming series with the Twins this week. If that happens, it seems like there might be a chance Judge could join Triple-A Scranton for some rehab games before the end of their postseason … Didi Gregorius (heel) is okay. The Yankees are just taking it slow in his return from the disabled list because he didn’t play in any rehab games.

Rotation Update: Sonny Gray is listed as the starter for Tuesday’s game against in Minnesota. It’ll be J.A. Happ on Monday, Gray on Tuesday, and Luis Severino on Wednesday. The Yankees are using Gray as a spot starter to give Luis Severino an extra day between starts. I kinda wish they’d skip that start entirely. Alas.

Minor League Update: Don’t wait around for the daily DotF post today, folks. There won’t be one. There are no minor league games today. Triple-A Scranton clinched a spot in the International League Championship Series last night, and the series doesn’t begin until Tuesday. All the other minor league affiliates are done playing. DotF will return Tuesday as the RailRiders look to win their second Governor’s Cup in three years.

Filed Under: Game Threads Tagged With: Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius

Masa’s Mastery

September 9, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno

(USA Today)

You’ll never convince me that Masahiro Tanaka isn’t a great pitcher. Sure, none of you reading this are likely to make that argument, but I think he’s a touch under appreciated outside of our pinstripe-tinted bubble. Of all the recent Yankee pitchers, I’ve always enjoyed watching him most. It seems that he never uses the same approach in consecutive games, yet he’s an effective pitcher. He can beat you with sinkers, sliders, and splitters all the same. Yeah, he gives up too many homers, but he counters that with plenty of grounders, good control and command, and a healthy dose of strikeouts. And since August, he’s been (mostly) dominant.

In his seven starts in the last month-plus, he has only one with more than one walk. In his seven starts in the last month-plus, he has had at least as many strikeouts as innings pitched four times. In his seven starts in the last month-plus, he has had a K/BB of at least 4.0 in six of them. He had a clunker of a start on 8/10 against the Rangers, which raised his season ERA to 4.08. Since then, he’s managed to lower it down to 3.61, good for a 122 ERA+, a marked improvement over last year’s below average figure. A big help with this has been his best pitch: the splitter.

Even before this good run, his splitter was his best pitch. It had a whiff/swing rate over 30%; a GB/BIP rate pushing 56%; and had the lost HR/(FB+LD) rate among all of his pitches. Even though his HR/(FB+LD) has climbed in the August-now sample, the other numbers have improved. His whiff/swing rate on the pitch is pushing 38% and he’s getting even more grounders with it at nearly 65%.

This little run is Tanaka at his best: mixing pitches, getting batters to chase, and putting them away with his splitter. It’s coming at a good time, too, just when the Yankees will need to solidify their postseason position. That it is coming now, in relative crunch time, is little surprise, given how well Tanaka pitched in the playoffs last year. With that in mind, is it possible Tanaka’s moved himself into the role of Wild Card Game Starter ahead of Luis Severino? Even a week ago, I would’ve said no, still stubbornly confident in Severino and his ability to turn it around. At this point, though, something is quite up with Severino–likely fatigue–and now I’ve shifted gears towards Tanaka. Of course, this is all recency bias and if Tanaka throws a poor start or two while Sevy does turn it around, my mind could easily change.

Peak Tanaka is just as good as any pitcher in baseball. He’s not always there, but when he is, he’s nearly impossible to beat. Regardless of whether he actually starts the Wild Card Game or not, I trust Tanaka in a big spot and you should, too.

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Masahiro Tanaka

Yankees 4, Mariners 2: Cutch and Romine go deep, Betances escapes ninth inning jam

September 9, 2018 by Mike

Things got a little dicey in the ninth inning, but a win is a win is a win. The Yankees beat the Mariners for the second straight night Saturday, this time by the score of 4-2. The magic number to clinch a postseason spot is down to ten, hence Chris Chambliss in the sidebar. It’s another West Coast night game, which means it’s another bullet point recap. Let’s get to it.

  • Two Homers, Two Sac Flies: Second homer in as many games for Andrew McCutchen. He clubbed a two-run shot Friday night. On Saturday, it was a leadoff homer in the top of the first for a quick 1-0 lead. The Yankees scored their second run on Giancarlo Stanton’s fifth inning sacrifice fly. Brett Gardner and McCutchen drew back-to-back walks and moved up on a passed ball to set that up. Then, in the seventh, Austin Romine slammed a go-ahead opposite field homer. That is not easy in Safeco Field. Gleyber Torres plated an insurance run with a ninth inning sacrifice fly. Miguel Andujar got hit by a pitch, pinch-runner Tyler Wade went first-to-third on Adeiny Hechavarria’s jam shot single, and Torres brought him home. Homers and sac flies. The Yankees’ two favorite ways to score. They lead MLB in both this year (232 homers, 51 sac flies).
  • Lynn Rebounds: Much better start for Lance Lynn, who got knocked around pretty good the last four times out. He held the Mariners to two runs in six innings. One scored on a Mike Zunino solo homer to dead center. The other scored on a single, two grounders to move the runner up, and Dee Gordon’s little jam shot bloop to shallow left. Gardner was playing in and he still couldn’t get to it. That’s how shallow the bloop was. Lynn’s line: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K on 76 pitches. Even with that pitch count, Lynn was starting to labor a bit in the sixth, and I thought it was a smart move to get him out of the game rather than let him face the middle of the lineup a third time. I would’ve been okay with pulling him after five, to be honest.
  • The Bullpen: Scary ninth inning after Zach Britton and David Robertson breezed through the seventh and eighth. With a 4-2 lead, Dellin Betances loaded the bases with a leadoff double, a one-out hit batsman, and a one-out walk. Gah. Fortunately, Betances is awesome, and he stuck out Denard Span and Kyle Seager to escape the jam and close out the win. Ballgame over. Yankees win. Also, Dellin is up to 38 straight appearances with a strikeout, extending his AL record. Aroldis Chapman’s big league record of 49 games is within reach.
  • Chasing Homer History: Romine’s homer was his tenth of the season. He has ten homers in 350 plate appearances this year after hitting seven homers in 711 plate appearances from 2011-17. Crazy. Anyway, the Yankees now have ten players with double-digit homers this year (Romine, Stanton, Torres, Andujar, Gardner, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird). Neil Walker (nine homers) and Luke Voit (seven) have a chance to make it 12 double-digit homer guys before the end of the season. That would be a record. Only four teams in history have had eleven 10+ homers guys (2014 Tigers, 2015 Astros, 2016 Twins, 2017 Astros). Incredible.
  • Leftovers: Two hits for Andujar and two hits for Torres. McCutchen, Hechavarria, Romine, and Gardner had one each. McCutchen, Voit, and Gardner drew the walks … Andujar exited the game after his take a pitch to the forearm in the ninth inning, but he’s fine. He was coming out for a pinch-runner and defensive replacement anyway … Sonny Gray warmed up in the ninth inning. I assume that’s because he’d hasn’t picked up a baseball in a while after going home to be with his wife when she gave birth to their second child earlier this week. He needed to throw a bit.

Here are the box score, video highlights, updated standings, and postseason odds. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page. The Yankees will look to complete the three-game sweep Sunday afternoon. CC Sabathia and Erasmo Ramirez are the scheduled starting pitchers for that one. It’s a 4:10pm ET start.


Source: FanGraphs

Filed Under: Game Stories

  • « Previous Page
  • 1
  • …
  • 127
  • 128
  • 129
  • 130
  • 131
  • …
  • 4059
  • Next Page »

RAB Thoughts on Patreon

Mike is running weekly thoughts-style posts at our "RAB Thoughts" Patreon. $3 per month gets you weekly Yankees analysis. Become a Patron!

Got A Question For The Mailbag?

Email us at RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com. The mailbag is posted Friday mornings.

RAB Features

  • 2019 Season Preview series
  • 2019 Top 30 Prospects
  • 'What If' series with OOTP
  • Yankees depth chart

Search RAB

Copyright © 2025 · River Avenue Blues