River Avenue Blues

Phil Hughes and uncharted waters

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(Jared Wickerham/Getty)

When Phil Hughes throws his first pitch tonight, he’ll set all sorts of new career-highs. In fact, pretty much everything he does from here on out will represent some kind of new personal best. Phil has already set career-highs in starts (30), innings (180), batters faced (764), pitches thrown (3,027), strikeouts (157), and yes, homers allowed (34) this year. The various WAR metrics ding him hard for the homers, but I still feel comfortable saying this season is better than his 2010 campaign.

With all of these new career-highs comes a lot of uncertainty. If Hughes manages to throw at least six innings in each of his final two regular seasons starts — something he’s been able to do in five of his last seven outings — he’ll have thrown as many innings this season as he did in the 2010 regular season and postseason combined. The workload has started to manifest itself in Phil’s fastball velocity, which has gradually declined from 93-95 earlier in the year to 91-93 nowadays…

Fastball velocity isn’t everything, far from it, but it sure is a nice thing to have in your back pocket. You’re more likely to get away with mistakes throwing mid-90s than you are low-90s. Hughes still isn’t walking anyone (2.15 BB/9 and 5.6 BB%), so he hasn’t shield away from the strike zone as the season has progressed. In fact, his pitches per batter faced has dropped from the 4.0-4.2 range in April and May to around 3.9 in August and September. Not a huge drop, but it actually runs counter to what I expected. It feels like he’s needed more pitches per batter lately, not fewer.

Hughes is one of only two starters to remain in the rotation all season, and the Yankees haven’t babied him at all. Sure, they have given him an extra day of rest here and there just like they have everyone else, but he hasn’t had a start skipped or anything like that. Hughes isn’t a kid anymore at age 26, but it’s still fair to wonder how well he’ll hold up now that he has more single-season mileage on his arm than ever before. Tonight’s start is important not just in the standings, but also as a sort of check-up on Phil and how he’s throwing the ball this late in the season.

Yankees shut out of Baseball America’s top 20 GCL prospects

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No real surprise here, but the Yankees didn’t have any players among Baseball America’s Top 20 Gulf Coast League prospects today. First rounder RHP Ty Hensley only threw a dozen innings and didn’t have enough playing time to qualify for the list. Second rounder SS Austin Aune did have enough time (163 plate appearances) but just wasn’t one of the 20 best future big leaguers in the circuit. RHP Jordan Cote and RHP Gio Gallegos had strong but short years, and are more interesting sleeper types than legit top-20 prospects.

The full top-20 schedule can be found here. The next list of interest to Yankees fans is the Short Season NY-Penn League, which is due out next Monday. Outside of OF Ravel Santana — who didn’t have a good year at all — I don’t think there was a single player on Staten Island who is top-20 caliber. Not even close, really.

Veteran Yankees Dancing in September

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(Al Bello/Getty)

The Yankees’ recent stretch of strong play has propelled them to a two-game lead over the pesky Orioles, giving them some much-needed breathing room against an opponent who has refused to go away.  While there is still plenty of baseball left, the likelihood of the Yankees winning the division title, or at least earning a playoff spot, grows ever larger.  The Yankees have won eight out of their last nine games, and 10 out of their last 12.  This run is all the more impressive because they have not gotten huge contributions from their stars.  Mark Teixeira is still out, and Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, and Robinson Cano have all underperformed in September.  Despite the offensive struggles of their impact players, the Yankees have solidified their place at the top of the division due in large part to the play of two veterans who appeared washed up at various points in the season.

Since September 6, Ichiro Suzuki seems to have discovered a fountain of youth that transformed him into the dangerous, dynamic Ichiro of old.  Over that stretch he is a ridiculous 24 for 48, good for a .500/.520/.708 line, with two home runs thrown in for good measure.  One could nitpick by saying that he has only walked three times (once intentionally) during that stretch, but honestly, when a guy’s hitting .500, there’s not much to complain about.  Ichiro has also stolen eight bases in his last 16 games, providing a speed element to the Yankee lineup that has been missing for much of the season because of the injury to Brett Gardner.

Like the dark wizard that he physically resembles, Raul Ibanez has demonstrated an incredible ability to bounce back from the most improbable circumstances.  Slow in the field and anemic at the plate for much of August and September, Ibanez has started to show signs of life.  While we are only operating with a tiny sample size here, Ibanez has made a huge impact for the Yankees over the last three games.  In those games, he is a combined 7 for 12, and his two big home runs were key to the Yankees’ comeback win against the A’s on the 22nd.

Fellow geriatric Andy Pettitte has particularly impressed since coming off the DL recently.  While several other Yankee starters have picked up their game of late, Pettitte has showed little rust in his return, tossing 11 scoreless innings in two outings (albeit against weak competition).  While one would worry about a pitcher retaining his command and feel following a long layoff, Andy seems to be back in midseason form.  With at least one more start remaining in the regular season, Pettitte seems to be making a strong case for the #3 spot in the playoff rotation, if the Yankees can make it that far.

It is incredibly improbable, but fantastic, that these players have all managed to turn back the clock and provide some big performances in very important games.  Given the advanced age of this trio, it would be reasonable to expect them to fade at the end of a long season, wearing down physically and overall demonstrating a diminished level of performance.  The fact that Pettitte, Ichiro, and (recently) Ibanez have elevated their game is a testament to the excellent conditioning and great work ethic that these players have maintained over the course of their career.  We could also throw Derek Jeter into this category as well, though he has been pretty strong throughout the season.  It has been a pleasure to see these consummate professionals pick up their more-heralded teammates throughout the stretch run.  Hopefully, the Yankees’ stars can pick things up over the next week and a half as the Yankees look to hold on to their division lead.  It should be a wild ride.

Pettitte, homers carry Yankees to win over Twins

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The Yankees had their seven-game winning streak snapped by the Athletics on Sunday, but they got right back on the horse with a 6-3 win over the Twins on Monday. The game wasn’t as close as the final score indicates; the Bombers were in control pretty much from first pitch.

(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Dandy Results

Andy Pettitte’s second start off the DL went just as well as the first, it just lasted a little longer. Pettitte still struggled to command his breaking pitches and he did put eight men on-base (six singles, one double, one walk) in six innings, but zero runs crossed the plate. He struck out three, got the Twins to roll into two double plays, and just made pitches when he needed to in typical Andy fashion. It’s cliche, but it’s true.

Other than the win, the most important thing is that Pettitte stretched his pitch count up to 88 after throwing 75 pitches a week ago. Next time out against the Blue Jays — his final start of the regular season — should get him up to 95-100 pitches, then they’ll pretty much be able to turn him loose (if they make it to the postseason, of course). The command still needs to be fine tuned, but as we saw in these last two starts, Andy can get outs even when he’s not locating precisely. You gotta hand it to the guy, he’s a pitching marvel.

(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

All Bombs Everything

The Yankees scored three runs in the first and six runs overall, and only one of them scored on a non-homer. Robinson Cano plate the first run of the game with a ground ball, but it was all about the power after that. Nick Swisher launched a two-run shot off the facing the upper deck in right-center one batter after Cano opened the scoring, giving Pettitte a three-run lead before he even took the mound. Curtis Granderson (fourth inning), Raul Ibanez (seventh), and Eric Chavez (seventh) all followed with solo shots off starter Liam Hendriks. Granderson’s and Ibanez’s were no-doubters but Chavez’s just sneaked over the wall. They all count the same though.

Death By Bullpen

A six-run lead with six outs to go should be a piece of cake, but Cory Wade allowed a solo homer to a guy who had a .093 ISO in Triple-A this season (Pedro Florimon) in the eighth before Justin Thomas and David Robertson combined to allow another two runs in the ninth. Thomas put the two guys on and Robertson allowed Chris Parmalee to drive them in with a triple to dead center with two outs. Granderson deserves an assist for his circuitous route.

With David Aardsma set to be activated tomorrow, there’s a pretty good chance Wade has made his last appearance in pinstripes road grays. He was fantastic last year and again this April and May, but it just hasn’t worked since. I think Thomas will get the benefit of the 40-man roster doubt because a) he’s a lefty, and b) he retired two of the three lefties he faced this game, allowing just a broken bat blooper to Justin Morneau. Since Pedro Feliciano isn’t coming back, keeping the third southpaw just in case someone gets hurt is a good idea.

Leftovers

(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

He waited until his final at-bat to do it, but Derek Jeter did extend his hitting streak to 18 games with (what else?) a single to right with one out in the ninth. It’s the fourth longest hitting streak of his career, and the Cap’n is up to 207 hits on the season. One more and he’ll tie Pete Rose for the most hits ever by a 38-year-old, eleven more and he’ll tie his career-high hit total set in 1999. That is insane.

Big but forgotten moment: Granderson throwing Ryan Doumit out at the plate to end the fourth inning. The Yankees were up 4-0 at the time, but the play prevented Minnesota from getting kind of momentum. Curtis deserves credit for the throw and Russell Martin deserves the same amount of credit for the tag. The play had to be turned perfectly and it was. Well done, fellas.

Granderson’s homer was his 40th of the season, making him the fifth Yankee in history to go deep 40+ times in back-to-back seasons. Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, and Jason Giambi have all done it as well. It’s also just the 30th season of 40+ homers by a Yankee. Here’s the list.

Ibanez (two) and Chavez (three) were the only Yankees with multiple hits while Cano and Martin were the only ones without a knock. Jeter (two) and Granderson (one) drew walks. Going 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position is much more tolerable when the balls are flying out of the park.

It’s probably worth noting that Josh Willingham left the game with some kind of shoulder problem, though it’s unclear if he’ll miss any more time. He is the Twins’ huge right-handed bat, so avoiding him these next two days would be sweet.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights while ESPN has the updated standings. Big ups to the Blue Jays, who managed to split a doubleheader with the Orioles on Monday. The lead in the division is up to two games in the loss column for the first time in three weeks, and the magic number to clinch the AL East is down to just eight. The magic number to clinch a playoff berth is just five. Almost there.


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next

Same two teams on Tuesday night, when Phil Hughes gives it a go against Esmerling Vazquez. The Yankees are 13-9 against pitchers they’ve never faced before this season, though I don’t think Vazquez counts. They saw him when he was working out of the Diamondbacks bullpen two years ago, hanging five runs on him in zero innings.

Game 153: Ten to go

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(Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

There are only ten games left in the regular season, starting tonight with the first of three in Minnesota. The Yankees have completely dominated the Twins in recent years, but that doesn’t mean these games will be easy. Score early, score often, and give Andy Pettitte (and his ~90 pitches) some breathing room. Here’s the lineup…

SS Derek Jeter
RF Ichiro Suzuki
DH Alex Rodriguez
2B Robinson Cano
1B Nick Swisher
CF Curtis Granderson
LF Raul Ibanez
C  Russell Martin
3B Eric Chavez

LHP Andy Pettitte

Tonight’s game starts at 8:10pm ET and can be seen on YES. Enjoy.

Ichiro named AL Player of the Week

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Ichiro Suzuki has been named the AL Player of the Week, the league announced. He turned back the clock to the Ichiro! days by going 15-for-25 (.600) with three doubles, two homers, and six steals (in six attempts) in the club’s six games. It’s his fourth Player of the Week award and first with the Yankees, so congrats to him.

Update: Aardsma will join Yankees tomorrow

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5:02pm: Aardsma told reporters that he will be activated tomorrow. I’m guessing Justin Thomas will be the 40-man casualty. I suppose there’s a chance the Yankees will add both Aardsma and Brett Gardner on Tuesday, which would be pretty neat.

4:30pm: Right-hander David Aardsma appears set to join the Yankees at some point this series based on his Twitter feed. Last night he said that today would be a “big day,” and then this afternoon he tweeted out a photo of Target Field. No one ever accused me of being smart, but it sure seems like the Yankees will activate him at some point during the next three days. They’ll have to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate him.