River Avenue Blues

Teixeira played first base, got seven at-bats in Instructs yesterday

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Mark Teixeira and his strained left calf got seven at-bats and played first base for one inning in Instructional League yesterday, his first game action since re-aggravating the injury nearly three weeks ago. He also ran at about 75-80% and reportedly felt fine afterwards. “I’m not sure if he’ll do it again tomorrow, or take a day off,” said Joe Girardi. “To me the biggest test is running the bases. That’s the biggest test for me, because I think he can protect it a little bit in the field if he has to. But sometimes you get into a situation, like he was in Baltimore, and your mind tells you, ‘I gotta go.’”

Instructional League is pretty informal, so Teixeira probably led off every inning or something like that. It’s unclear when he’ll be able to rejoin the team — Monday’s series opener against the Red Sox would be nice — and I guess there’s a chance he won’t be ready in time for a potential postseason series. That would really suck, but hopefully it doesn’t come to that.

Hoping for a better 2013 from Ivan Nova

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Another home run (allowed) for Ivan! (Abelimages/Getty Images)

Hopes ran high for Ivan Nova entering this season. After an up-and-down first half, which ended with his demotion to AAA, Nova came back looking more impressive than ever. In 11 starts he threw 73.2 innings and held opponents to a .242/.297/.364 line, which amounted to a 3.18 ERA. He still wasn’t striking out many batters, but he compensated with a low walk rate (2.4 per nine) and home run rate (just four). Given the Yankees’ pitching woes heading into the offseason, his breakout was greatly appreciated.

Yet 2012 proved to be a rough sophomore ride for Nova. He got smacked around at times in the first half, though he did end the first half with a sub-4.00 ERA. Since then, however, he has mixed good starts with absolutely horrid ones. THe horrible ones have dragged his numbers in the wrong direction; his ERA now sits above 5.00, and he has essentially no chance to make the postseason rotation, should the Yankees advance. So what happened to young Nova?

In at least one way he improved in 2012. His strikeout rate jumped from 5.4 per nine in his first 207 innings to a hair over 8 per nine this year. At the same time he has kept his walk rate at a reasonable level, 3 per nine, which is right around his career rate. But at the same time that batters are whiffing more often, they’re also making solid contact more often. Opposing hitters have managed an 860 OPS against him this year, which, as our own Larry Koestler points out, is by far the worst in the the majors (among qualified starters).

The main culprit, as you might imagine, is Nova’s home run rate. At nearly 1.5 per nine innings, he has more than doubled his rate from last season. He has also allowed doubles and triples at rates greater than most of his peers. His 52 doubles allowed ranks second in the majors, and his seven triples allowed puts him in a five-way tie for first place. Among his triples-allowing mates is a name that proves interesting when discussing Nova’s 2012 season: James Shields.

We turn to another RAB correspondent, Moshe Mandel, for the skinny on Shields and Nova:

For those who don’t speak Twitter, it means that only two pitchers in history have struck out so many and walked so few while still getting battered by opposing hitters. The Yankees can only hope that Nova continues to parallel Shields’s career path.

The biggest difference is that Sheilds’s 2010 was his age-28 season, and he already had nearly 800 innings in the books. By that point he had established himself as more of a finesse guy, striking out just a hair over 7 per nine but walking under 2 per nine from 2007 through 2009. But in 2010 his strikeout rate jumped to 8.3 per nine. His walk rate rose a bit, but his biggest problem was with the home run ball. He’d struggled with it slightly earlier in his career, but in 2010 he allowed 1.5 home runs per nine — almost exactly Nova’s rate.

So not only do Nova and Shields share one of the odder pitching seasons in baseball history, but they also showed similar changes in that year. Both saw an unusual increase in strikeout rates to go along with a slight rise in walk rate and noteworthy jump in home run rate. Unsurprisingly, Shields also had the highest OPS among AL starters in 2010.

In 2011 Shields bounced back, leading the league in complete games and finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA. He hasn’t had quite that level of success this year, though a 3.62 ERA is still fine for a mid-rotation starter. It also lines up with his peripherals from 2011. That’s encouraging for the Yankees and Nova. Can he make the same kind of bounce back in his third full big-league season?

Obviously we can’t determine any of that from where we sit. The numbers might line up, but clearly not everyone follows the same career path. Who knows what adjustments Shields made following his rough 2010 season. But there has to be some optimism for Nova. Again, his added ability to strike out hitters certainly bodes well for his future. He is also entering his prime years now — 2013 will be his age-26 season. To count on him, then, is a bit much. But to hold out hope is reasonable enough.

Nova does have one more start scheduled in 2012, and it could rank among the most important of his career. No matter how he pitches he’s likely done for 2012, unless the Yankees decide to carry him in their postseason bullpen. But it would be nice to end the season on a high note, after a tumultuous second half. There could be brighter days in 2013. Given the near-uniqueness of his 2012 season, it’s hard to see things going any worse for him.

Thoughts following the series opening loss to the Jays

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(Abelimages/Getty)

This is my twelfth “thoughts following” post, and eight of the first eleven have come after losses. I swear that is just a coincidence, I usually decide to do these things a day or two ahead of time. Maybe I should stop? Is it all my fault? I dunno. Two of the other three came after wins, including the doubleheader sweep of the Blue Jays last week. The other one came after a rain out.

1. What a miserable second half for Ivan Nova. It’s easy to forget that he carried a 3.92 ERA (4.20 FIP) into the All-Star break, but since the Midseason Classic he’s pitched to a 7.05 ERA (4.97 FIP). He’s allowed one fewer earned run in the second half than he did in the first half in 50.1 (!) fewer innings. It’s awesome that his strikeout rate (8.08 K/9 and 20.5 K%) jumped so much from last year (5.33 K/9 and 13.9 K%) while his walk rate (2.96 BB/9 and 7.5 BB%) dropped a smidge, but holy crap man, he’s getting pounded when he’s not striking guys out. Opponents have hit .288/.348/.511 with 28 homers off Nova this season, which is basically Adam Jones (.292/.340/.517 with 32 homers). I wanted to believe that he was going to exceed expectations after last year, but right now he’s the guy he was projected to be coming up through the minors: a back-end starter who gets hit harder than his stuff says he should because he lacks deception.

2. If the Yankees were going to lose one game in this series against the Blue Jays, it was going to be last night’s. New York was starting their worst pitcher while Toronto was throwing their best. It would have been nice to steal that one heading into the weekend, but at least the pitching matchups for the next three games strongly favor the Yankees. It’s too bad that doesn’t guarantee anything, but I sure feel better knowing that than I would if the matchups were lopsided in the other direction. The magic number to clinch a postseason berth is just three, and I will be sorely disappointed if the Yankees return home on Monday without at least a playoff spot in the bag.

3. I’ve gone back and forth on this in my head over the last few weeks, but which would you rather be heading into the LDS: the one-seed or the two-seed? The one-seed gets to play the wildcard play-in winner, who will have theoretically burned their ace pitcher. The two-seed gets to know who they’re playing ahead of time, allowing more time for scouting and preparation. At one point I thought being the one-seed was the way to go, at another I thought the two-seed was where it’s at. Now I’m leaning back towards the one-seed. As I mentioned in the mailbag this morning, the Yankees are two back of the Rangers for the best record in the league and they hold the tiebreaker.

4. Going to step away from the Yankees for just one bullet so I can talk about the league MVP awards. Miguel Cabrera has had an amazing season, but I think Mike Trout should win the AL award rather easily. The NL is much more up for grabs. Ryan Braun is having a huge year (.319/.392/.602 with 41 homers) but I bet the voters hold last year’s PED stuff against him. Andrew McCutchen is a worthy candidate (.332/.403/.558 with 30 homers) and Buster Posey is also having a big year (.333/.405/.539 with 23 homers). He’ll generate a lot of buzz because the Giants ran away with the division, but I actually think Yadier Molina may be the NL MVP. He’s having a big year with the bat (.320/.377/.507 with 21 homers) and he’s the best defensive catcher in the game. Catcher defense is a tough thing to quantify, but just compare him to Posey — Posey has started 107 games behind the plate (28 at first and three at DH), allowed two passed balls, and thrown out 36 of 121 base-stealers (29.8%). Molina has started 128 games behind the plate, allowed four passed balls, and thrown out 34 of 72 base-stealers (47.2%). Yadi has played 168.1 more innings at catcher and opponents have attempted 49 (!) fewer steals. I doubt he wins, but I think the Cardinals’ backstop has a very strong case for being the most valuable player in the so-called senior circuit.

Mailbag: Haren, Dickerson, Rangers, Trout

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Six questions and five answers today, so we’ve got a good mailbag this week. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box to send us questions throughout the week.

(Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty)

Vinny and many others ask: If the Angels are serious about not picking up Dan Haren’s option, should the Yankees be all over that?

Earlier this week there was a report indicating that the Angels plan to decline Haren’s (and Ervin Santana’s) club option for next season and instead pursue a monster extension with Zach Greinke. Haren, 32, is nearing the end of his worst full season as a big leaguer, pitching to a 4.32 ERA (4.30 FIP) in 29 starts and 170.2 innings. He’ll fail to make 33 starts or crack 210 innings for the first time since 2004, when he was with the Cardinals. Blame the lower back stiffness that led to his first career DL stint.

Based on Twitter these last few days, fans of every single team want their club to pursue Haren if the Angels do indeed decline his $15.5M option. Haren is from Southern California and has made it no secret that he prefers playing on the West Coast, so right away the Yankees are at a disadvantage. It’s also worth noting that his strikeout rate is in the middle of a three-year decline, and his fastball velocity has been heading in the wrong direction for years now. That second link is particularly scary. The back issue scares me as well, especially if the Halos do cut him loose. It’s the whole “what do they know that we don’t?” thing. Haren has been a great pitcher for a long time, and that alone makes him worth looking into. There are a number of red flags however, so any team interested in signing him will have to really do their homework.

Travis asks: Is it safe to assume that if we only carry three starters on the post season roster, Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova will have a role on the team out of the bullpen? I’m also assuming the three starters go to CC, Hirok!, and Dandy Andy.

The new playoff system and schedule really discourages the use of three-man rotations, since everyone would have to pitch on three days’ rest after Games One, Two, and Three to get away with it. CC Sabathia can do that (assuming the Yankees actually get into the postseason), but I’m not sure Hiroki Kuroda or Andy Pettitte could. I expect the Yankees to use four starters throughout the postseason, and right now the number four guy is clearly Hughes. Nova pitched himself out of the job these last two months or so.

Now does that mean Nova would automatically go to the bullpen? I don’t think that’s a given. Assuming the Yankees only carry eleven pitchers into the postseason (they could get away with ten, but I doubt it happens), four will be the starters and four other spots are accounted for: Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, and Boone Logan. That leaves three spots, one of which I assume will go to Clay Rapada. The candidates for the final two spots would be Nova, David Phelps, Cody Eppley, and I guess Derek Lowe (veteran presents!). Phelps seems like a given in this situation, then you’ve got your pick of the other three. I guess that decisions comes down to who throws the best the rest of the way, but frankly I would rather see the Yankees carry an extra position player in that situation, especially if Mark Teixeira’s calf remains an issue.

Steve asks: Are the Yankees more likely to go with a iffy Brett Gardner or Chris Dickerson on the playoff roster? Can they fit both?

Ben asks: Don’t you think Chris Dickerson needs to figure into the Yankees big league plans in 2013? At least as a 4th outfielder? This guy is a great fielder and base runner and had a useful bat. Much rather have him over another Andruw Jones-type. What say you?

(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Might as well lump these two together. If the Yankees do make the playoffs and use an 11-man pitching staff, they’ll have room for an extra bench player. That spot tends to go to a speedy pinch-runner type (think Freddy Guzman in 2009), a job for which both Gardner and Dickerson are qualified. Gardner is the better player, but he also is physically unable to hit right now. I have a hard time thinking the Yankees will carry someone on the postseason roster that can’t even swing the bat in case of an emergency. Maybe that changes and Brett is cleared to take his hacks at some point in the next six days, but that doesn’t seem likely based on everything we heard for the last four months.

As for next year, Dickerson’s situation depends largely on what happens with Nick Swisher. If they let him walk, then the outfield need will be greater and they should hold onto him. If they bring Swisher back, having a left-handed outfielder on the bench doesn’t make a ton of sense. I’m probably the biggest Chris Dickerson fan you’ll find, but he is just a platoon player at the plate. More of a high-end fourth outfielder than an everyday corner guy on a contender. As much as I would like him to see him stick with the club going forward, Dickerson isn’t a great fit for the roster right now.

Shaun asks: Hey Mike, do you know who would have home field if the Yankees and Rangers tied for the best record? Thanks.

The Yankees are currently two games back of Texas for the best record in the AL, and New York would get the nod as the top team in the circuit if they tie because they won the season series 4-3. They won’t play a tiebreaker game or anything like that, that only happens when the division title or a playoff spot in general is on the line. So yeah, the only thing the Yankees would have to do to secure home field advantage in both the ALDS and ALCS would be to finish with the same record as the Rangers, nothing more.

(Jeff Gross/Getty)

Steven asks: Mike, not sure if you’re aware, but Mike Trout is good at baseball. I was wondering, hypothetically speaking of course, if the Angels were to make him available, what sort of haul would he bring? Do you see his value getting any higher than it is right now? And, finally, what sort of package would the Yankees have to piece together to get these hypothetical talks started?

I don’t think any player in baseball has as much trade value as Trout. You’re talking about a just-turned-21 kid who has already shown he can play at a superstar level. He hits homers, steals bases, hits for average, gets on-base, and plays great defense at a premium position. Plus he remains under the team control for five more seasons, the next two at the league minimum. It’s impossible to top that, and I don’t think he could possibly increase his trade stock unless he agrees to like, a ten-year contract worth $25M or something ridiculous.

There’s no way for the Yankees to acquire Trout even if he was available. What do you start the package with, four years of CC Sabathia and one year of Robinson Cano while offering to pick up the bulk of the money? I wouldn’t take that for Trout. Offer me Mason Williams, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, and a guaranteed to be healthy Michael Pineda and I still would say no if I were the Angels. If the Giants come calling and put both Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner on the table, then yeah that catches my attention. The Yankees don’t have anything to get a trade done, I just don’t see how it would be possible. I don’t think Trout can replicate this season (or even improve on it) year after year, but he’s going to be great for a long-time. At his age and with that much cost-control remaining, he’s the single most valuable asset in the game.

Morrow shuts Yankees down, Jays take opener

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Following Thursday’s 6-0 loss to the Blue Jays, the Yankees are just 4-11 in games played on artificial turf this season. That’s only two ballparks — Tropicana Field and Rogers Centre — and frankly, it doesn’t really mean anything. The YES booth mentioned it on the broadcast and it caught my attention for whatever reason.

(Abelimages/Getty)

Record-Setter

In a start that was a microcosm of his season, Ivan Nova allowed four runs and failed to complete five full innings of work. It’s the second straight start in which he’s been unable to record 15 outs. Brett Lawrie hit a two-run homer in the third, but that wasn’t the mistake. The pitch Lawrie hit out wasn’t even in the strike zone. The mistake was walking number nine hitter Anthony Gose one batter earlier. Nova jumped ahead of him 0-2 in the count but got cute with breaking balls and walked him. Edwin Encarnacion doubled in two runs in the fifth, his third hit of the game.

I’m not sure what more you can say about Nova and his season that hasn’t already been said. He’s been a major disappointment regardless of what he does in his final start next week. On the bright side, Nova’s first strikeout was his 150th of the season, giving the Yankees four pitchers with that many strikeouts. They’re the fourth team in AL history with four 150-strikeout guys, and the first since the 1987 Royals. Nova’s third strikeout was the pitching staff’s 1,267th of the season, a new single-season franchise record. The 2001 squad was the previous record holder. That’s pretty neat. As for the bad news, Encarnacion’s double set a new single-season franchise record for extra-base hits allowed (87). Nova missed three weeks due to injury and still set the record with one start to spare. Think about that.

(Abelimages/Getty)

Morrowned

Nova getting pounded is no surprise, and neither is Brandon Morrow shutting down the Yankees in Toronto. The 28-year-old right-hander came into the game with a career 6.84 ERA in the new Yankee Stadium (25 IP), but pitching in Toronto as a Blue Jay, he’s held the Yankees to a 1.05 ERA in 42.2 innings. Thursday’s masterpiece featured seven shutout innings, including a first and second with no outs situation in the seventh that did not advance any further (the same thing happened in the ninth against Darren Oliver). That he only struck out three seems like a misprint in the box score.

I don’t know what it is, but the Yankees simply have not been able to do anything against Morrow in Toronto these last three years. All four hits he allowed came off the bats of Robinson Cano and Russell Martin, who each singled and double. Martin’s double was aided by the defense and should have been caught. That was pretty much it though. The 8-9-1-2-3 stretch of hitters went a combined 0-for-12 with two walks against the opposing starter. This Morrow stuff is eerily similar to how A.J. Burnett dominated the Yankees while with the Blue Jays, isn’t it?

Leftovers

(AP/Aaron Vincent Elkaim)

Pretty much the only thing about this game worth applauding was David Aardsma’s return to a big league mound. The veteran right-hander missed over two calendar years due to injury (oblique, hip, elbow), but Joe Girardi let him throw the eight inning. Aardsma allowed a solo homer to J.P. Arencibia and walked Moises Sierra in an otherwise scoreless inning, hitting 92 on the gun and showing both a slider and a splitter. You can’t expect much out of Aardsma the rest of the way, but it was cool to see him back in the show after the long layoff and especially after following his rehab progress all season.

Ichiro’s hitting streak came to and end at ten games, and he’s suddenly 4-for-18 (.222) on the road trip. Derek Jeter’s on-base streak did continue thanks to his walk, and that is now up to 28 games. It is tied for the third-longest such streak of his career. Cano had three hits total (two singles and a double), though he did get doubled off first when Gose made a nice running catch at the wall on a Nick Swisher line drive in the fourth. Martin had his two hits, but otherwise the only Yankees to reach base were Jeter with the walk, Alex Rodriguez (walk, hit-by-pitch), and Swisher (walk). They were shutout for the first time since the Felix Hernandez two-hitter last month.

Clay Rapada threw one pitch and retired the only man he faced, but Derek Lowe allowed a run on three hits in his two innings of work. A ground ball guy on artificial turf with a less than stellar infield defense was bound to result in some kind of offense for the Blue Jays. At least Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, Boone Logan, and Joba Chamberlain were all able to get another day of rest.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights while ESPN has the updated standings. The Orioles were idle on Thursday, so the lead in the division and the magic number are one game and six, respectively. The Angels did lose to the Mariners, so the magic number to clinch a postseason berth is down to just three. Thursday wasn’t a total loss, I suppose.


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next

These same two teams will play game two of this four-game set on Friday night, when Hiroki Kuroda gets the ball against rookie right-hander Chad Jenkins.

Game 156: North of the Border

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(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Only one road series left to go, and it begins tonight in Toronto. The Yankees open this four-game set against the Blue Jays with a two-game lead over the idle Orioles for the AL East, and a four-game lead over the Angels for the second wildcard spot. You’ve got to clinch a playoff berth before you can clinch the division though, and there’s a chance the Yankees will secure a postseason spot as soon as tomorrow if things break right. I hope they do. Here’s the starting nine…

SS Derek Jeter
RF Ichiro Suzuki
DH Alex Rodriguez
2B Robinson Cano
1B Nick Swisher
CF Curtis Granderson
C  Russell Martin
LF Raul Ibanez
3B Jayson Nix

RHP Ivan Nova

Tonight’s game is scheduled to start a little after 7pm ET and can be seen on YES. Enjoy.