2011 ALDS: Previewing The Tigers’ Offense

Most of the attention paid to the Yankees-Tigers ALDS matchup has focused on the pitchers for the time being, and why not? Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia are worthy Cy Young candidates, Doug Fister’s been pretty great since the trade, and the Yankees have some questions to answer later in the series. Pitching  is only half the battle thought, the Yankees have to deal with Miguel Cabrera and the rest of their offense as well.

Shutting Down Miggy

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

This will be the easiest section of the post. You know why? Because there’s no way to shut down Miggy Cabrera, he’s just too good. The guy hit .344/.448/.586 this season after hitting .328/.420/.622 last season. He’s also a .374/.439/.729 hitter in 30 career games against the Yankees. There’s just no stopping him, accept it. There’s also little chance of stopping Victor Martinez, who hit .330/.380/.470 this year (.281/.346/.507 career against the Yanks). These two guys are just too good, even the best game planning could prove fruitless.

Therefore, the best way to lessen the impact of Detroit’s 4-5 hitters is to keep the guys hitting in front of them off base. Thankfully, Jim Leyland helps out a bit with this. Leadoff man Austin Jackson got on base just 31.7% of the time this year and never topped a .333 OBP after the fourth game of the season. Three-hole hitter Delmon Young is a Grade-A hacker (.302 OBP overall, .298 with the Tigers); his value comes from the occasional homerun. Wilson Betemit has been hitting second of late and is easily the best hitter ahead of Miggy and V-Mart. His  .285/.343/.452 season line is buoyed by a .292/.346/.525 performance in MoTown. Jackson (22 steals) is their only stolen base threat, so keeping him and Young off the bases in front of he two big bats is imperative.

Don’t Forget About …

… Alex Avila and Jhonny Peralta. Avila, a former teammate of David Robertson‘s in college, will garner some MVP votes after hitting .295/.389/.506 with 19 homers this year. He’s the only significant left-handed bat in the Tigers’ lineup, but he’s more than held his own against southpaws this season (.279/.349/.430). Avila also does most of his hitting to the opposite field (spray chart), which is good for the Yankees because a) that’s where Brett Gardner is, and b) left field is the biggest part of Yankee Stadium.

Peralta, the former Indian, had a sneaky good year at the plate (.299/.345/.478). He bats right behind Avila, who bats right behind Martinez and Cabrera. These two aren’t as dangerous as the two big guys, but they’re definitely not pushovers either, Avila in particular. They’re the ones the Yankees will have to be really careful with, since Miggy and V-Mart figure to spend a lot of time on the bases.

Everyone Else

Both Young and Jackson are pretty bad at getting on base, as are the two remaining spots in Detroit’s lineup. Magglio Ordonez has been both hurt and basically unusable (.255/.303/.331) this season. The second base platoon of Ryan Raburn (.274/.321/.486) and Ramon Santiago (.245/.301/.361) is solid at best.

Clearly, the Tigers’ offensive attack revolves around Cabrera and Martinez, with Avila doing a great job of being the third wheel. Keeping Jackson and Young off base will be pretty important, as will keeping Peralta under wraps when the three  guys in front of him inevitably reach base. It’s a potent offense (.336 wOBA), but there are definitely spots where the Yankees can pick their poison, so to speak.

Hello, Tigers. We’ve met before, haven’t we?

When the Yankees take the field against the Tigers tonight and CC Sabathia readies his warm up pitches, for fans who were in attendance on Opening Day, it will be a sight evocative of that cold afternoon in March. Nearly six months to the day since the season opened, the Yankees and Tigers will square off with a trip to the American League Championship Series on the line.

The Yankees and Tigers of course faced each other a handful of times this year. The one-time AL East club moved to the Central when the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were granted a team in 1998, and the Yanks see the Tigers far less frequently than they used to. In fact, the two clubs have not met since May 5. Players have changed; club personnel have changed; but here we are.

It’s tough to draw many conclusions from the Yanks’ seven games against the Tigers. The opening set was played amidst some decidedly non-baseball-like weather, and the May series kicked off a stretch of the schedule in which the Yanks went 3-10 over 13 games. It was ugly. But we’ll relive them anyway.

March 31, 2011: Yankees 6, Tigers 3 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Joba Chamberlain
LP: Phil Coke
S: Mariano Rivera
HR: Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson

With winds at 12 miles per hour and game-time temperatures at 42 degrees, it felt more like winter than baseball season on Opening Day. Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia would face off against each other, but neither ace would last long enough to grab a win. Verlander struck out eight but walked four in six innings while CC struck out seven and walked two. With the game knotted at 3, the bullpens became key. Joba Chamberlain drew the win when Curtis Granderson homered against Phil Coke. Rafael Soriano and Mariano closed it out, and the Yanks would never be a .500 team this year.

April 2, 2011: Yankees 10, Tigers 6 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: A.J. Burnett
LP: Brad Penny
S: Mariano Rivera
HR: Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Russell Martin, Victor Martinez, Austin Jackson

A Saturday, 52 degrees, and yet the balls were flyin’ out of the stadium. Teixeira blasted a three-run job, and Russell Martin’s first Yankee Stadium homer brought in three as well. A.J. pitched just well enough over five innings to get the win, and while the Tigers tried to rally back against Boone Logan and Luis Ayala, they couldn’t overcome an early 6-0 deficit. It was Yankee baseball, as she is meant to be played.

April 3, 2011: Tigers 10, Yankees 7 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Max Scherzer
LP: Phil Hughes
S: Jose Valverde
HR: Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Jorge Posada (2), Brennan Boesch, Miguel Cabrera (2)

It was the first indication that Phil Hughes just wasn’t right. In the finale of the opening series, Detroit dopped a ten-spot on New York. Hughes lasted just four innings, and Bartolo Colon threw four ineffective innings of his own. Jorge Posada, defying age, blased two home runs, but Miguel Cabrera did the same. Jose Valverde danced off the mound, and the Tigers had their first victory of the young season.

May 2, 2011: Yankees 5, Tigers 3 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Joba Chamberlain
LP: Jose Valverde
S: Mariano Rivera
HR: Alex Avila (2)

At the time, we were expecting a good game as Bartolo Colon with his fountain of youth was to face Justin Verlander, and these two pitchers did not disappoint. Again, the Yanks tagged Verlander for four walks while the Tigers’ ace struck out eight over six innings. Colon K’d seven in as many innings. With the game tied in the ninth, though, Jose Valverde faltered. A run scored on a Nick Swisher single, and a passed ball allowed the Yanks some breathing room.

May 3, 2011: Tigers 4, Yankees 2 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Brad Penny
LP: CC Sabathia
S: Jose Valverde
HR: Mark Teixeira

At the time, we didn’t know the tailspin into which the Yanks would head after this game. It seemed like an ordinary loss. Brad Penny, who the Yanks had beaten badly in April, held the team to an unearned run over six innings while CC wasn’t at his best. Even though Detroit went 2 for 10 with runners in scoring position, they didn’t need to do any better, and the Bombers helped them out on the basepaths when Andruw Jones was thrown out at the plate. The Yanks would then lose three in a row and nine of their next 12.

May 4, 2011: Tigers 4, Yankees 0 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Max Scherzer
LP: Freddy Garcia
HR: Magglio Ordonez

Max Scherzer, 8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K. ‘Nuff said. Freddy wasn’t bad, but he couldn’t touch that.

May 5, 2011: Tigers 6, Yankees 3 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Rick Porcello
LP: A.J. Burnett

This was ugly. The Yanks, up 2-1 after 5.5 innings, simply fell apart over the final frames of this game. In the pivotal seventh inning in which the Tigers scored three to take the lead, A.J. hit Ryan Raburn who was hitting .229 at the time, and an Eduardo Nunez error — shocking, I know — lead to a pair of unearned runs. Earlier in the game, A.J.’s own error led to a previous unearned run. This was a game best left to the growing pains of May.

The RAB Radio Show: September 30, 2011

We’re just hours away from Game 1 of the ALDS, so you know what’s going to be on the agenda.

  • We start from where we left off last week, with the AL playoff races coming down to the wire.
  • Hopefully well-rested troops are effective troops. It seemed to help down the stretch, after Girardi bought some guys a little rest mid-September.
  • It might surprise everyone, but Justin Verlander gets discussed at length.
  • Tigers offense: better than you might think.

Podcast run time 54:41

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Intro music: “Die Hard” courtesy of reader Alex Kresovich. Thanks to Tyler Wilkinson for the graphic.

Looking Back. Looking Forward.

Every other week, Jamie O’Grady channels the 2005-version of Michael Kay by “Looking Back. Looking Forward.to get you caught up on what just was, and what soon will be with the New York Yankees.

LOOKING BACK: So what did you miss?

By now you’ve probably seen or read the accounts of Major League Baseball’s Game 162-madness on Wednesday night. With each League’s Wild Card up for grabs – and four teams (Boston, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Atlanta) vying for the two remaining postseason slots – a confluence of improbability, fate and justice occurred, the likes of which none of us are likely to again witness in our lifetimes.

Which got me to (gasp) thinking…

For some time now, we’ve been hearing that the National Football League has usurped MLB as the most popular sport in the land. The numbers back it up, too, as last year was the first time that a prime time World Series game failed to draw as many viewers as an NFL game being broadcast concurrently. Heck, even I was watching the Saints beat the Steelers on Monday Night Football instead of the 2010 Fall Classic. In fairness, the 2009 Yankees-Phillies match-up did beat MNF head-to-head just one year earlier, but the overall trend is indisputable and likely irreversible. Or is it?

There is simply no way that the NFL (and it’s wimpy 16-game schedule) is able to replicate what can happen at the end of MLB’s six-month regular season. Wednesday’s penultimate games had it all: comebacks with two outs and two strikes in the bottom of the ninth inning(s); players once buried on the bench, or better yet, just called up from the minors, making the unlikeliest of heroic contributions; and season’s fates hinging and turning on seemingly innocuous base-running blunders and pitching substitutions. It was all on display.

In a 15-minute span late Wednesday night, a virtually infinite amount of 2011 pitches, swings and managerial moves came to a head in one glorious and riveting crescendo. These games served as irrefutable evidence that Major League Baseball remains both viable and formidable, and I encourage everyone to stop comparing and contrasting America’s pastime with its worthy pigskin-obsession. Both are amazing, in very different ways.

Besides, football could never have produced a fantasy outcome like this one (achieved by my 12th-year keeper squad on the last day of the season):

What we learned:

9/16 – 9/18 @ TOR I could tease Blue Jays fans about another hapless campaign by their franchise, but I’d actually have to find a Blue Jays fan first. Surely, that would be a fruitless exercise, but this Toronto season-postmortem by Bruce Arthur is a must-read for any baseball fan. On a personal note, I’d like to wish Brandon Morrow – he of the 11-11 record, 4.72 ERA and incongruous 10.2 k/9 – a joyous off-season. Despite his best efforts to repeatedly submarine my fantasy team, I emerged victorious nonetheless. Also, nice job by 1996 Cy Young Award thief winner, Pat Hentgen, as bullpen coach for the Blue Jays this year; he showed great poise in using the bullpen phone. Oh, and Cy Young runner-up Andy Pettitte? Busy somewhere in the greater Houston area, misremembering to count his $125,332,416 in career earnings. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3) (Actual: NYY lose 2-of-3)

9/19 v. MINWay back in 2006 – I still had thick, lustrous hair back then – I wrote on MLB.com that fantasy owners should say more yes on Morneau. Sadly, it might soon be time for the Twins to say “no mas” on the former AL-MVP, whose 2011 season was somehow worse than his lost 2010 campaign was. Look, concussions are no laughing matter – unless you’re Gary Busey – but when you hit four home runs in 264 at-bats, it’s something of a red-flag for management. I like Morneau, and Canadian-born ballplayers sure are awesome, eh, but small-market teams like Minnesota can’t afford to swing-and-miss on big-ticket items. A free agent after the 2013 season, Morneau’s days with the Twins may be numbered. (Prediction: NYY win makeup game) (Actual: NYY win makeup game)

9/20 – 9/22 v. TAMIf there’s one thing you can predict in baseball (and there really isn’t, Suzyn), it is that doubleheaders can never, ever be swept. And so the when the Yankees clinched the AL East by winning two games in one day, it was yet another sign that the Apocalypse is nigh. By the way, you might recall that in my last piece, I advised you to keep an eye on young Tampa whipper-snapper, Matt Moore. Well, I probably should have told you to keep both of your eyes on him. 11 Ks in five innings in his first Major League start? That’s almost Strasbergian. Should be awesome watching him confound New York for the next six years until we buy him. (Prediction: NYY split 4-game series) (Actual: NYY win 3-of-4)

9/23 – 9/25 v. BOSEarly this morning came word from Ken Rosenthal that Terry Francona will not be retained by the Red Sox. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Clay Buchholz didn’t throw a pitch after June 16. Kevin Youkilis compiled 40 at-bats after August 17. John Lackey had the worst statistical season by a Red Sox pitcher in franchise history. Carl Crawford signed a 7-year, $142m contract to impersonate a 37-year-old Johnny Damon. Tim Wakefield started 23 games. David Ortiz totaled one home run and eight RBI during the month of September. Yeah, like I said, that makes a lot of sense. Don’t get me wrong, Boston endured an epic meltdown this season, and Francona’s lack of leadership didn’t help matters, but you can’t just part ways with the guy that brought you two World Championships after a century of futility. It’s just too bad Ozzie Guillen decided to go to the Florida Miami Marlins. Just imagine the post-game press conferences that coulda been. Hilarity would have ensued. (Prediction: NYY lose 2-of-3) (Actual: NYY win 2-of-3)

9/26 – 9/28 @ TAMAnd speaking of the Red Sox, I don’t want to hear any complaining about Joe Girardi‘s management of the team during this series, as the great Harvey Araton of the New York Times wondered on Thursday. You see, the Yankees achieved this little thing called “winning their division,” but by doing so, afforded themselves the luxury of resting key veteran players and aligning their pitching staff as they saw fit. Make no mistake, the Yankees played these games to win, even if their A-lineup wasn’t present for all three games. Boston has no one to blame but themselves, and maybe Mark Wahlberg, who the universe seems hellbent on blessing with every success possible. So take that, Marky Mark, Ben Affleck, et. al. (Prediction: NYY win 2-of-3) (Actual: NYY get swept)

LOOKING FORWARD: What can’t you miss?

Well, duh, there’s a baseball game scheduled for tonight at the big ballpark in the Bronx. If you’re so inclined, tickets can still be had via StubHub for as little as $60.00. Sure, you’ll need binoculars to spot little Brett Gardner, but at least you’ll be in the building.

What we expect to learn:

Folks a lot smarter than me have got the ALDS preview thoroughly covered here at RAB, so I’ll be brief:

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell you that beating the Tigers starts and ends with beating Justin Verlander. Sure, the Yankee staff must pay close attention to both Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez – .374, 10 home runs in just 107 at-bats and 17 career-homers, respectively, against New York), and Doug Fister (he barely knew her!) has been pitching like Tom Seaver of late (8-1, 1.79 ERA since being acquired by the Tigers mid-season), but the prohibitive Cy Young Award favorite and likely MVP-winning Verlander is the key chess piece for Detroit.

Amazingly, the fearsome Yankee lineup fared quite well versus the Tiger-ace in 2011, as Verlander compiled a mortal 4.50 ERA in two starts, both no-decisions. Additionally, New York worked 8 walks in 12 innings against the righty, a formula they’ll need to repeat in the ALDS in order to get his pitch-count up as quickly as possible.

Oh, by the way, the Yankees have their own ace, CC Sabathia, but there are red flags abound. If Sabathia’s 2.64 September strikeout/walk ratio and career 4.66 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in the postseason weren’t enough to make you worry, he’s also sporting a no-so-nifty 4.54 career-ERA and 15-12 career-record against Detroit.

In the end, I suspect the ghosts will be joined by mystique and aura once again during the ALDS, and the Yankee lineup will bail out their suspect starting pitching. Combine their offense with David Robertson and Mariano Rivera, and there’s reason to believe.

Having already proven myself inept in the prediction business, there’s no reason to stop now.


And that’s all she wrote. I’ll see you back here throughout the playoffs, unless you follow me on Twitter, in which case I’ll see you every five seconds or so.

2011 ALDS: Previewing Justin Verlander

(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Barring something completely unexpected, Justin Verlander will win the AL Cy Young Award this season. He might even win it unanimously, but part of me hopes the two New York voters vote for CC Sabathia just to troll like the two Detroit writers who voted for Magglio Ordonez as the AL MVP in 2007 despite Alex Rodriguez‘s otherworldliness. The Yankees are going to have their hands full in Game One tonight, so let’s take a look at just how full…


You’re not going to run away with the Cy Young without being dominant, and Verlander obviously is. His flashy 24-5 record distracts from a brilliant underlying performance, one that includes almost a strikeout per inning (8.96 K/9) and just over two walks per nine innings (2.04 BB/9). Verlander is a fly ball pitcher (40.2% ground balls this year, 40.0% career), so that helped keep his batting average on balls in play down a bit (.236 vs. .285 career). He has a bit of a platoon split, but nothing crazy. All told, the 28-year-old from Virginia pitched to a 2.40 ERA with a 2.99 FIP, contributing 7.0 wins to his team according to FanGraphs (8.6 according to Baseball-Reference).

Pitch Selection

(via Texas Leaguers and FanGraphs)

You can make a pretty strong argument that Verlander has the best stuff in the world. He uses four pitches regularly, and according to linear weights, all four are at least 1.36 runs better than average for every 100 thrown (that’s the wR/100 column). Based on those values, Verlander had the sixth best fastball, the sixth best curveball, the 12th best changeup, and the 20th best slider in baseball this season (min. 150 IP). That’s pretty insane.

The breakdown is pretty basic, more sliders to righties and more changeups to lefties. Because his velocity is so elite, hitters almost have no choice but to start their bats early, which will lead to some ugly swings on the slow stuff. Verlander has a quick and deceptive delivery, and he really sells the changeup with his arm action.

Pitching Pattern

(via FanGraphs)

Verlander is a very simple man. He uses that high-octane fastball to get ahead in the count, then he goes to town with all those swing-and-miss offspeed offerings. Because his stuff is so good, Verlander can throw fastballs in fastball counts (0-0, 2-0, 3-1) and still dominate.

How To Attack Him

There’s no easy answer here. The simplest thing to do would be to wait him out and attack either him with a high pitch count or the bullpen, but that’s much easier said that done. He’s a strike-thrower, and being passive will mean a lot of quick strike ones and strike twos. You’d almost be better off gearing up for the fastball early in the count rather than try to hit the stuff that breaks later in the at-bat.

Verlander averaged 7.38 innings and 115.9 pitches per start this year, so he’s a workhorse of the first order. He famously holds his velocity deep into games; it’s not uncommon to see 98+ with his pitch count over the century mark. The Yankees could work the count and elevate his pitch count early, and he still might be out there in the seventh.

Yankees announce ALDS roster

Here is the Yankees’ ALDS roster:

Infielders: Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Eduardo Nunez, Eric Chavez

Outfielders: Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Andruw Jones, Chris Dickerson

Catchers: Russell Martin, Jesus Montero

DH: Jorge Posada

Starters: CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

Relievers: Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano, Cory Wade, Boone Logan, Luis Ayala, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes