Mailbag: A-Rod, Rehab, Waiver Deals, Expansion

Four questions, four answers this week. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar if you have any questions you want to send in.

(Photo Credit: Flickr user Keith Allison via Creative Commons license)

Kevin asks: Is it just me or is A-Rod quietly having his best defensive season at third base? His UZR is already 10.3, only the second time he has been above average.

Alex Rodriguez has looked much better this year defensively, no doubt about it. UZR doesn’t tell us much after half-a-season, but it’s cool to see his 10.3 UZR as the third best in baseball, regardless of position. Brett Gardner is first at 16.0, Gerardo Parraz second at 11.2. Denard Span and Dustin Pedroia are right behind Alex at 10.0 and 9.9, respectively. For what it’s worth, DRS has him at +8 runs saved, which is the 15th most in baseball. The Fans Scouting Report has him at four runs above average. So yeah, all the advanced metrics agree so far, and he certainly passes the eye test.

I think most of it has to do with the weight loss and what not this offseason. Remember he shed something like 15 lbs. and 4% body fat in the offseason, and he was noticeably slimmer and lighter on his feet in camp. It’s not as obvious now because he’s dealing with that knee issue and it has slowed him down a little bit, but he did make that great play to save Boone Logan‘s bacon Wednesday night, and we’ve seen him make plays like that all year.

Dan asks: What factors into decisions on rehab assignments for injured players? By this I mean what determines whether or not someone will even take rehab starts (e.g. Colon vs. Jeter), and why do others max out their rehab at AA instead of AAA (e.g. Hughes)? Wouldn’t it make more sense to test their performance against better competition?

The Double-A vs. Triple-A thing mostly has to do with travel. They’ll pick whatever team has the easier schedule (i.e. is closer to home in New York) and send them there. Trenton was home during Derek Jeter‘s rehab and their travel wasn’t bad when Phil Hughes was around. A lot of times you’ll see guys rehab with Short Season Staten Island and skip the upper levels entirely. It’s not so much about testing performance, because you know these guys can perform at the big league level, it’s just about staying sharp and getting back up to game speed.

The length of the rehab assignment depends on a lot of things, namely the type of injury and how much time the player misses. Bartolo Colon was shut down for about a week, then he started throwing bullpen sessions. They didn’t have to rebuild his pitch count like they did with Hughes. Jeter just needed a little tuneup (two rehab games, not even the full nine innings either) after missing two weeks, but remember he needed five full rehab games after separating his shoulder in 2003. A-Rod played in a week’s worth of Extended Spring Training games when he was coming back from his hip surgery. There’s a lot that goes into it, and every player is different.

A former waiver trade pickup. (Photo Credit: Flickr user Kimberly* via Creative Commons license)

Larry asks: I have a question about waiver trades in August and players to be named later. Can the Yankees trade “a player to be named later” for a player who cleared waivers? For example, lets say Carlos Beltran clears waivers and the Yankees and Mets agree on a player to be named later, lets say its one of the Killer Bs who obviously would not clear waivers. Are the rules regarding who the player to be named later has to be? When does the player have to be named? Otherwise couldn’t the Yankees and the Mets wait until After the World Series to name the player and complete the trade? It just seems to me like there is a lot room to manipulate the system.

The only players that have to clear waivers to be traded in August are players on the 40-man roster, and yes, they could agree to a player beforehand but not name him until after the season. Dellin Betances won’t clear waivers, but if the Yankees wanted to trade him for Carlos Beltran, he could be the player to be named later but not officially sent to the Mets until after the end of the World Series. PTBNLs have to be named within six months of the original trade, that’s really the only criteria. Teams do this all the time, every single year, and it’s a big fat loophole in the system.

Stephen asks: In a hypothetical two-team expansion draft after this season, who would be the 15 all-organization Yankees you would protect first?

The Platoon Advantage and a ton of other sites recently conducted a mock two-team expansion draft, and it was a lot of fun to read through and follow. The rules are explained via the link, but the general idea is that every player in the organization is eligible to be taken except amateur players acquired in 2010 and 2011 (that’s drafted players and international free agents). Teams can protect 15 players for the first round and then add three more players after every round thereafter. Here’s the 15 players I’d protect (alphabetically) …

  1. Manny Banuelos
  2. Dellin Betances
  3. Robinson Cano
  4. Joba Chamberlain
  5. Brett Gardner
  6. Curtis Granderson
  7. Phil Hughes
  8. Brandon Laird
  9. Jesus Montero
  10. Hector Noesi
  11. Ivan Nova
  12. Eduardo Nunez
  13. David Robertson
  14. Austin Romine
  15. Nick Swisher

It’s an expansion draft, and an expansion team is not going to take on the $100M+ contracts of CC Sabathia or A-Rod or Mark Teixeira. I feel pretty comfortable leaving those guys unprotected. It’s the young guys in their pre-arbitration years or guys signed to long-term, below-market extensions that are most in danger of being poached. And heck, if some expansion team wants to take A-Rod’s or Rafael Soriano‘s or A.J. Burnett‘s contract off the Yankees’ hands, let them.

David Phelps and Adam Warren were the last two cuts. I gave some thought to protecting Russell Martin, but I figure he’s around for one more year (if that) and I’ve already protected two young catchers. Phelps and Warren are numbers crunch guys, but I can’t justify protecting them over Hughes or Nova or Noesi, who have at least shown something in the big leagues. Betances and Banuelos are too talented to leave unprotected, can’t let a top prospect like that go for nothing. Ditto Montero and Romine, and even Nunez, who’s proven useful.

I’d protect Phelps, Warren, and Corban Joseph after the second round, then J.R. Murphy, D.J. Mitchell, and Gary Sanchez third time around. That leaves Andrew Brackman, George Kontos, Ryan Pope, Graham Stoneburner, Shaeffer Hall, Josh Romanski, Frankie Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, Greg Golson, Chris Dickerson, Cory Wade, and Rob Lyerly among the notables left unprotected. I can live with that.

Rays smack Colon around as Yanks lose again

You know things aren’t going well when Bartday sucks. The Yankees lost their series opener to the Rays because the couldn’t hit or pitch, and that pretty much tells you everything you need to know. Thursday’s game was about as uninteresting as losses get.

Death by Zobrist.

Bad Bartolo

For the first time all year, Bartolo Colon got absolutely rocked. Just about every ball in play was hard hit, so it’s not a surprise that he gave up ten hits in 5.2 IP. After walking just 18 men all year, Colon walked four in this game, including John Jaso and his sub-.300 OBP twice. His velocity was fine but his command wasn’t, and he wasn’t getting any help with pitches at the corner. It was the first time we’ve seen Bartolo be really helpless on the mound, when he had absolutely nothing working and the hitters were all over him. Considering it’s July, that’s not too bad. Shake it off and do better the next time, Bart.

LOLffense

We’ve seen this game before, right? Do I really have to recap it? The Yankees had men on the corners with one out in the first, but didn’t score. Then they had men at second and third with one out in the second, but didn’t score. Jeff Niemann then retired ten of the next eleven men he faced before Robinson Cano hit a solo homer with two outs in the sixth. The Yankees were down by five at that point, so it didn’t matter. Niemann escaped those first two innings unscathed, then completely shut the Yankees down through the next five-plus innings. Stop me if you’re heard that before.

Right in there for #2,998.

Two Away

Derek Jeter wasted no time continuing his pursuit of 3,000 career hits, doubling to center on Niemann’s first pitch of the game. It was his third straight game with a double, the first time he’s had an extra base hit in three consecutive games since late-May of last season. Jeter didn’t hit the ball out of the infield in any of his other four at-bats, but he is hardly the only one to blame for the lack of offense. The Cap’n is two hits away from the milestone, and he better do it tomorrow, when I’ll be at the game.

Leftovers

It’s good to know the Yankees have Hector Noesi around for important situations like this game. Those 3.1 scoreless innings were really, really important, and winning takes priority, right? Seriously, please just send the kind to the minors so he can start while some veteran schmuck sits in the bullpen for two weeks between low-leverage relief appearances. This is ridiculous.

Mark Teixeira drew two walks but he’s one hitless at-bat away from a sub-.240 batting average. Russell Martin, Brett Gardner, and Jorge Posada each had a hit, and Cano had two. That’s pretty much it, the trio of Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, and Nick Swisher went a combined 0-for-12 with five strikeouts.

The Yankees have now lost two in a row and four of their last five since that seven-game winning streak. They’ve scored three or fewer runs in each of those losses.

WPA Graph & Box Score

MLB.com has the box score and video, FanGraphs the nerd score.

Up Next

The second game of this four-game series will be played Friday night, when Freddy Garcia gives it a go against rookie Jeremy Hellickson.

Nova, Betances dominate for SWB and Trenton

Jorge Vazquez is going to take his hacks in the Triple-A Homerun Derby next week. He still leads the International League with 20 homers (next highest is 16) despite missing close to three weeks with a shoulder issue. Adam Warren replaced the injured Kevin Whelan on the All-Star Game roster, so congrats to him. Kei Igawa has been placed on the disabled list for an unknown reason and Naoya Okamoto has been released. Josh Norris spoke to a scout who recently watched Triple-A Scranton, so check out his comments.

Triple-A Scranton (6-2 win over Buffalo)
Chris Dickerson, LF & Greg Golson, CF: both 0 for 4, 2 K – Golson scored a run
Terry Tiffee, 1B & Jorge Vazquez, DH: both 2 for 4 – Tiffee drove in a run, scored a run, and struck out … JoVa doubled, homered, drove in two, and scored twice
Brandon Laird, 3B & P.J. Pilittere, C: both 1 for 4, 1 2B, 1 RBI - Laird scored and struck out … Pilittere whiffed twice
Jordan Parraz, RF: 3 for 4, 1 R, 1 SB – 14 for his last 31 (45.2%)
Luis Nunez, 2B: 0 for 2, 1 RBI
Doug Bernier, SS: 0 for 3
Ivan Nova, RHP: 7.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K, 4 WP, 7-6 GB/FB – 72 of 98 pitches were strikes (73.5%) … left the game after getting hit in the foot with a batted ball, but he walked off under his own power, so hopefully he’s okay … otherwise, great start, he must be mad they sent him down, unless he pitched poorly, in which case he was disappointed … whatever narrative fits best
Randy Flores, LHP: 0 IP, zeroes, 1 HBP – brought in to face one lefty, and he hit him … he’ll fit right in with the big league team
Logan Kensing, RHP: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0-1 GB/FB – 18 of 29 pitches were strikes (62.1%)

[Read more…]

A-Rod may skip All-Star Game

Via George King, there’s a chance Alex Rodriguez will skip the All-Star Game next week to give his ailing right knee some rest. It’s been bothering him for at least two weeks now, though Alex did tell King that it’s “getting better.” A-Rod was voted as the starting third baseman for the All-Star Game and deservedly so; he leads all big league third baseman with 4.1 fWAR and 3.3 bWAR. As great as it would be to see a bunch of Yankees in the All-Star Game, I’d rather them stay home and get healthy.

Game 86: Bartday!

(Photo Credit: Flickr user r0sss via Creative Commons license)

It’s my favorite day of the week, Bartday. Bartolo Colon will make his second start off the disabled list, and his first looked like vintage Bart. He was fastball heavy, throwing the two-seamer inside to lefties for called strike threes, getting batters to stare at the four-seamer on the outer half. It’s gorgeous. Here’s the lineup…

Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, RF
Jorge Posada, DH
Russell Martin, C
Brett Gardner, LF

Bartolo Colon, SP

First pitch is scheduled for a little after 7pm ET and can be seen on YES locally or MLB Network nationally. Enjoy.

Mariano Rivera Update: Mo threw today and felt fine, so he’s available to pitch tonight if needed. He will, however, skip out on the All-Star Game next week.