River Avenue Blues

Lare dominates as SI wins again

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Scroll down for tonight’s All Star Game Thread.

Triple-A Scranton is off until Thursday for the All Star break. Shelley Duncan came in second in the Homerun Derby last night, but the game isn’t being played until tomorrow. Austin Jackson will lead off, and Shelley will clean up for the International League. Tucker Gordon, a regular RAB reader, was there and took some video of Shelley swinging away.

Double-A Trenton is off until Thursday for the All Star break. If you’re heading to the game in Trenton tomorrow night, remember to check out our Eastern League All Star Game Preview.

High-A Tampa had a scheduled off day, just like the rest of the Florida State League.

Low-A Charleston (9-6 loss to Hickory)
Jose Pirela: 0 for 3, 2 R, 2 BB, 1 K
Abe Almonte & Melky Mesa: both 1 for 5 – Almonte doubled, scored a run & K’ed … Mesa tripled, drove un a run & K’ed three times
Corban Joseph: 3 for 5, 1 R, 1 3B, 2 RBI
Garrison Lassiter: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 E (throwing) – 16 errors in 36 games … yikes
Addison Maruszak: 3 for 5, 1 R, 1 K
Mitch Abeita: 2 for 4, 1 RBI, 1 K, 1 E (throwing)
David Phelps: 5 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 WP, 6-5 GB/FB, 1 E (throwing)
Charles Nolte: 3 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 3-2 GB/FB
Cory Arbiso: 1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 0-1 GB/FB

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2009 All-Star Game Thread

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2009 MLB All Star Game LogoLast night’s Homerun Derby was about as exciting as having your teeth pulled, so we can only hope tonight’s game is a bit more fun to watch. Last year’s 15-inning marathon was actually pretty entertaining, especially once Terry Francona and Clint Hurdle began to watch nervously as they tried to figure out what the hell they were going to do with the pitching staffs if the game kept going.

The American League has won every All-Star Game since 1996, save for that tie in Milwaukee a few years back. Looking over the rosters, it seems like we could be in for another AL win because of the quality and experience of the pitching and the depth on the bench. Remember, it’s the reserves that usually decide this thing. The starting position players get their two at-bats and hit the showers. And you know, this game decides home field advantage in the World Series. It’s dumb, but them’s the rules.

Unfortunately, Evan Longoria has an infected finger and can’t go tonight. He’s been replaced on the roster by Chone Figgins. For shame, Longoria was one of the few players I actually wanted to see. Anyway, here’s the starting lineups:

American League
1. Ichiro!, RF
2. Derek Jeter, SS
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Mark Teixeira, 1B
5. Jason Bay, LF
6. Josh Hamilton, CF
7. Michael Young, 3B
8. Aaron Hill, 2B
9. Roy Halladay, SP

National League
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS
2. Chase Utley, 2B
3. Albert Pujols, 1B
4. Ryan Braun, RF
5. Raul Ibanez, LF
6. David Wright, 3B
7. Shane Victorino, CF
8. Yadier Molina, C
9. Tim Lincecum, SP

I’m not saying he belongs in the game, but I’ll miss seeing A-Rod wear those funny white cleats. The game is supposed to start at 8pm, but you know first pitch won’t be until 8:20 at the earliest after the starting lineups and all the unnecessary bells and whistles that’ll be attached to this thing. Joe Buck and Tim McCarver have the call. Enjoy the game.

Graphic from Flickr user N i c o_

Damaso Marte lives! (Or at least rehabs)

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We have a Damaso Marte sighting. The Yanks’ left-handed reliever, missing in action since coming down with an (allegedly) WBC-inspired shoulder injury, is heading to rehab, Bryan Hoch says via Twitter. Marte threw 35 pitches during batting practice today and will begin a Golf Coast League rehab on Thursday. Getting a healthy and effective Marte back would allow the Yanks to seamlessly transition Phil Hughes or Al Aceves into the starting rotation while Chien-Ming Wang recovers from his shoulder injury.

Derek: This time, it shouldn’t count

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Derek Jeter is no novice when it comes to the All Star Game. Tonight is, in fact, his tenth appearance in the last twelve seasons, and the AL is 9-0 with Jeter on the team. Yesterday, when speaking of the Game and how it is truly about the fans, Jeter slammed baseball’s decision to have the outcome of the All Star Game count for anything. “I don’t like that,” Jeter said. “I just don’t think this should determine home field advantage. I’ve said that year in and year out. I think it adds some excitement and more people pay attention to the game, maybe, but I don’t think it’s necessarily a situation where players play harder because of it. Even when the game didn’t matter, players came and played hard.”

Nothing about the All Star Game makes it a good indicator of home field advantage for the World Series. It’s a glorified exhibition game put on for the fans, and it should have remained that way. If only Bud Selig would listen to the Yankee Captain.

First Half Review: Catchers

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At 51-37, with the third best record in baseball, leading the Wild Card and just three games back in the AL East, the Yankees had a fine first half. Yet it was a tumultuous three months, wrought with streaks and injuries and strange trends, causing mass panic at times among Yankees fans. Over the extended All-Star Break, we’ll go over each position to see what went right, what went wrong, and how things look for the second half. We already looked at the starting pitchers, relievers, and corner infielders, so now it’s time to take a look at the catchers.

The expectations

The catching situation in 2008 was a mess once Jorge Posada went down with a major shoulder injury. Jose Molina was terrific defensively but was exposed offensively when playing every day, and a midseason trade for Ivan Rodriguez proved fruitless. As a result of the dismal showing last year, it was hard to expect anything but an upgrade this year. Sure, there were concerns about Jorge Posada’s ability to control the running game with this surgically repaired shoulder, but his bat was never in question. With Molina set to return to his usual backup duty, there was cause for optimism coming into this year.

The results

Yankee catchers have put up a .280-.335-.444 batting line, good for the fourth best OPS in the league even with Jorge Posada missing just about four weeks with a hamstring issue. When Jose Molina went down with a similar injury, straight outta Double-A Frankie Cervelli performed better that anyone could have ever expected on both sides of the ball.

Considering the team lost its top two backstops to injury at the same time, it’s impressive that the catching in the Bronx still ranks among the best in the league. Let’s talk about some of the individual pieces now.

Jorge Posada

If anything, last year’s injury reminded all of us just how important Jorge Posada is to the Yankees. He’s proven that his shoulder is fully healed by throwing out 20 of 67 potential basestealers, or 29.1%. That percentage is basically the same as the 29.5% gun-down rate Posada posted in his career before the shoulder started giving him trouble last year.

Offensively, Posada is producing at pretty much the same pace as always. While no one was expecting him to repeat his monster .338-.426-.543 season in 2007, Posada has again been an above-average producer behind the plate with a .285-.369-.508 line. As he goes the Yankees go.

Jose Molina

The best backup catcher the Yankees have had in some time, Molina’s defense seems to have taken a slight step back this year (just 25% of basestealers have been thrown out, well below his 41.4% career mark coming into ’09) and you wonder if playing just about everyday last year is taking its toll on him now. Molina missed two months with a strained hamstring, but has quietly hit .271-.340-.375 when he has played. As always, Molina’s still at his best when he plays once every four days.

Frankie Cervelli

The new golden boy, Cervelli arrived from Double-A Trenton with dreamy eyes and a .190 AVG when Posada and Molina went down, and exceeded every possible expectation. He’s thrown out 10 of 21 potential basestealers (47.6%) and moved around behind the plate exceptionally well. Even though he hit just .269-.284-.346, Cervelli always seemed to put together quality at-bats and never failed to hustle down the line. A fan favorite, Cervelli was sent down to Triple-A to play every day once Posada and Molina returned to the full strength. His play over his two-month cameo all but earned him the backup catcher job for next year.

Expectations for the second half

I guess you could say the biggest expectation for the second half sn’t really an expectation at all, just hope that Jorge Posada remains healthy. He’s such an important part of the team both in the lineup and in the clubhouse. If he stays on the field, the Yankees will have arguably the most productive catcher in the majors (non-Mauer division), always a significant advantage. Molina and third stringer Cervelli provide adequate backup, but are a significant drop-off if pressed into everyday duty.

The Yankees have enviable catching depth at the moment, but just like pitching depth it can vanish in an instant. As an ex-catcher, I’m sure manager Joe Girardi will pay special attention to the workload Posada endures the rest of the season. Just stay healthy, that’s all we want. The rest will take care of itself.

A second half search for a little bit of luck

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As we analyze the Yankees’ season, we often focus on the role luck plays in a baseball game. For those not used to the concept, though, it can be confusing. This isn’t the luck that leads you to find $10 in the washing machine, but it is more akin to the luck that leads you to just catch your train in the morning one second before the doors close. That still doesn’t answer the question what exactly luck is in a baseball context.

For that answer, we can turn to a three-year-old Wall Street Journal article by Russell Adams. In it, the author explores concepts and analysis surrounding luck. Using ample data points from the rich history of baseball, leading analysts both inside baseball’s front offices and outside of them can determine whether a player’s performance is lucky or a sign of a different shift.

Luck can take on a few different forms in baseball. On an individual level, the most obvious example is Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). The average player’s BABIP will generally hover somewhere around .290. A player with a BABIP of .250 may be unlucky; he isn’t hitting them where they ain’t. He also may be popping up more and hitting fewer line drives, both negative factors on the ol’ BABIP. By looking at outcomes and results, statisticians can weed out bad luck from good.

On a team level, luck manifests itself in the form of win-loss records. Generally, history has shown that teams’ records track with their runs scored and runs allowed. This is known as the Pythagorean expectation. Teams that score a lot of runs without allowing as many generally win a lot of games, but one-run games or blowouts — the so-called “random” events — can impact the perception of how good or bad a team actually is. (For more on team-based luck, check out J.C. Bradbury’s take. He has written extensively on the topic.)

This year, the Yankees have, by one measure, been lucky. Based purely on their +60 run differential — they’ve scored 60 more runs than they’ve allowed — they should be 49-39 rather than 51-37. That calculation, however, doesn’t account for various factors, such as strength of schedule, Chien-Ming Wang’s problems and the early-season blowouts. Another calculation, however, should give comfort to Yankee fans.

Using a complex statistic called base runs that attempts to calculate expected runs scored and expected runs allowed while controlling for strength of schedule, Matthew Carruth at FanGraphs has the luck breakdown of every team in the Majors. In this calculation — one Carruth admits is subjective, as are most complex concepts of team luck — the Yanks have a luck factor of -1 and the Red Sox are at 6. Tampa is at -9. In a perfect world, these would all balance to 0, and the AL would continue to be a three-way race between Tampa, New York and Boston.

(As an aside, a few FanGraphs commenters had some issues with Carruth’s methodology. Take a gander through the feedback there if you’re interested. My point will remain the same.)

So, where does this leave us? Well, as I said, we could take comfort in the luck factor. The Yanks were a bit unlucky and are still the Wild Card leader. Sounds good to me. But Tampa is a dark horse. If their luck evens out and Boston’s does as well, they could jump ahead of the Sox and Yanks in the standings.

In the end, then, we’re left where we started. We can understand the role luck plays in baseball; we can blame it for some of the Yanks’ failings; but we will be subjected to its whims this summer. As the 2009 season hits its second half, the two teams in the AL East who are the luckiest will probably be the ones playing in October while the third will go home.