Archive for Francisco Cervelli
Nova nails first MLB win in 2-1 thriller
Posted by: | CommentsAmidst rumors of an MLB probe, Yankee rookie Ivan Nova threw a gem against the White Sox on Sunday afternoon. He held the Chicago offense to one run over 5.2 innings, and the Yanks’ bullpen, shaky on Saturday night, spun 3.1 scoreless innings as the Yanks grabbed the rubber match of this three-game set 2-1.
Nova settles in
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
Ivan Nova isn’t one of the heralded arms leading the Yankee farm system this season. He doesn’t generate the same kind of buzz as a Brackman, Betances or Banuelos does. But for the second straight start, he has beguiled Major League hitters, lending stability to a shaky Yankee rotation. On Sunday, he earned himself the game ball as he picked up his first Big League win.
As he did against Toronto, Nova showed confidence in his stuff on Sunday. He averaged 94 with a live fastball and hit 96/97 regularly. He showed good velocity separation with his change-up and threw his curveball for strikes as well. As the stuff was there, so too were the results. Through 5.2 innings, he struck out seven Chicago hitters, and the White Sox lone run came on a Juan Pierre RBI single. The Yankees needed a good pitching performance, and Nova, all of 23 years old, delivered.
After the game, Joe Girardi announced that Nova would start next weekend against Toronto, and it will be interesting to see how a team fares against him in his second turn in short order. Nova is clearly on a short leash; he started leaving the ball up in the sixth, and Girardi took no chances after just 88 pitches. The Blue Jays, as we saw, are a solid offensive club, and facing them will be a true test for a pitcher who could be a key player in the Yanks’ rotation in September.
Let the good Thames roll
Marucs Thames does the hokey pokey. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
With Gavin Floyd on the mound, the Yanks couldn’t get much of anything going, but Marcus Thames came through in the second. Pressed into service against a right-hander because the team wanted to give Jorge Posada and Mark Teixeira remains sidelined by a sore hand, Thames led off the sixth with a booming home run to left field. The Yankees had a 1-0 lead they would not relinquish.
“I’m a power guy,” Thames said after the game. “And it’s big for power guys: You have to get into a rhythm to get some stuff going. But I know my role, so I don’t need to start putting pressure on myself. I’m just glad if I hit the ball hard every time I get a chance.”
For Thames, this homer was his ninth of the season and his fifth in his last four starts. On the season, he is hitting .320/.401/.544 in limited playing time. Considering how badly a pair of Brian Cashman’s other off-season pick-ups have fared, Thames’ solid play is a breath of fresh air for the Yanks. He’s a true weapon off the bench and has delivered during his starts as well. As long as the Yanks don’t need Thames to put on a glove, he’s a fine contributor and at 1 win above replacement and counting, well worth the money the Yanks are spending.
This is how you fist-pump properly. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
Cervelli’s big day
For all the grief I’ve given Francisco Cervelli this season, I can’t wrap up this game without a nod to his 4-for-4 performance. It is but the second time in his professional career that the offensively-challenged catcher has knocked out four hits in one day, and on Sunday, Cervelli scored what would be the winning run.
On a 3-1 pitch to start the third, Cervelli roped a double to right field. After fouling off a bunt attempt, Brett Gardner swung away on 0-2 and lined a single to center. Cervelli scored, and the Yanks would plate no more men throughout the rest of the game.
Cervelli’s day wasn’t a good one just at the plate either. He had his moments behind the dish as well. With Joba on the bump to start the eighth inning, Paul Konerko reached on an error by Eduardo Nuñez. Brent Lillibridge came on to pinch run, and the stolen base was clearly in the mix. Lillibridge went, and Cervelli threw a strike to Robinson Cano. It was a huge out for the Yanks as Andrew Jones singled in the at-bat. Cervelli hasn’t been a defensive whiz this year, and with Jesus Montero knocking on the door, his time on the Yanks may be limited. But on Sunday, he gave the team its biggest late-inning WPA bump as the White Sox’s win expectancy dropped from 40.9 to 24.8 with that caught stealing. It was a good moment for the beleaguered Cervelli.
To end the game, Joe Girardi was able to mix and match with the bullpen. Although Kerry Wood came dangerously close to blowing the lead, the pen, so bad on Saturday, sealed the deal for Nova, Cervelli and Thames — three unlikely heroes — on Sunday.
WPA Graph
Box scores: ESPN and Fangraphs.
Up Next
With the Rays’ nailing two out of three from Boston, Tampa Bay and the Yankees remain tied atop the AL East as Boston slips 6.5 games behind the pack. The Yankees will take on the Oakland A’s tonight at 7:05 p.m. at the stadium in the Bronx. Dustin Moseley (4-2, 4.53) will face the man with a .215 BABIP and AL Cy Young candidate Trevor Cahill (14-5, 2.43).
Posada’s achy shoulder could present a big problem
Posted by: | CommentsJust a little over a week shy of his 39th birthday, the Yankees have enjoyed another solid season out of stalwart catcher Jorge Posada. His .361 wOBA is second best among American League catchers, and other than a few fluke injuries (hit by pitch on the knee, foot fracture on a foul tip) and some nagging soreness that’s cost him a day here and there, Posada has largely defied the typical catcher aging curve. At least until now.
(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
After catching three straight games, including a day game after a night game, it was obvious that Posada was going to receive a day off yesterday. Throw in Joe Girardi’s stated catching rotation, and it’s even less surprising. What did come as a surprise was the news following yesterday’s game that Posada’s surgically repaired right shoulder was “barking,” something that first popped up when he threw to second on a stolen base attempt during Monday’s game. Perpetually optimistic, Girardi downplayed the issue, saying that he hoped it would clear up and his starting backstop would return to the lineup soon. Whether or not that actually happens remains to be seen.
What we do know is if the Yanks lose Posada for any length of time, or even see his playing time reduced to cope with the ailment, they’re in big trouble. Frankie Cervelli, the target of much ire this summer, is far from an everyday catcher. Even with last night’s run scoring single, he’s still hitting just .197/.269/.237 in his last 175 plate appearances dating back to mid-May. Take away three hit by pitches and that on-base percentage shrinks to .250. On top of that, Cervelli has thrown out just seven of 39 attempted basestealers, a 15% success rate that is lower than Posada’s (17%) and the worst by a Yankee backstop with at least 500 innings caught in a season since Johnny Blanchard threw out 14% of basestealers in 1962. Who knows, perhaps regular playing time will help get Frankie in a rhythm and allow him to rediscover that BABIP luck from April, but things don’t usually work like that. The extended playing time during Posada’s disabled list stint in May is what brought Cervelli back to Earth in the first place.
In his Under The Knife column today, Will Carroll says the Yanks would like to add a catcher (according to his sources), which tells you a few things if true. First of all, the team is not seriously considering a Jesus Montero call-up regardless of his .413/.473/.775 batting line since the All Star break. That could be for any number of reasons, but it probably has something to do with them either a) not wanting to rush him, b) not feeling his a big league catcher defensively, or c) both. It was a long shot to begin with, as far as I was concerned.
Secondly, it tells you the Yanks aren’t all that comfortable with Cervelli as an everyday backstop down the stretch in a division race. Should the situation arise, finding a backup catcher on trade waivers shouldn’t be tough, though you’re not going to land anything special. Maybe the Mets are willing to move the presently injured Rod Barajas (.266 OBP, yuck) or Henry Blanco. The Jays could dump either John Buck or Jose Molina with J.P. Arencibia setting the world on fire, and I’m sure the Tigers would love to get of Gerald Laird to free up playing time for Alex Avila (and some salary). Point being, the trade options aren’t great, but they’re out there.
Either way, if Posada’s shoulder becomes enough of an issue to limit his catching to a game or two a week, the Yankees are in some pretty big trouble. Having his offensive production come from a premium position is part of the reason why the team has been so successful for the last decade-plus, and now if you’re replacing that with essentially a replacement level hitter who can’t control the running game, you’re talking about a one or two win swing down the stretch, if not more. In the ultra-competitive AL East, that could be difference between playing the Twins at home in October or going on the road to face the Rangers.
The great Francisco Cervelli rant
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Oops. Photo Credit: AP Photo, Frank Franklin II
Francisco Cervelli isn’t supposed to be here, enjoying this much playing time. The weakest of the Yankees’ deep organizational corps of catcher, Cervelli has somehow caught 539 of the Yanks’ 958.1 innings this year. He isn’t hitting, and as a defensive specialist, his fielding has let him and the Yankees down. As a dinky pop up bounced off his glove and three unearned runs cost the Yanks the game last night, I had to wonder what exactly Cervelli was doing with so much playing time on a team with a $213 million payroll.
I don’t hold a grudge against Francisco Cervelli, the person. He’s a 24-year-old kid from Venezuela who clearly loves playing baseball as a career. He’s enthusiastic to a fault, and for a few weeks, he had a penchant for big hits. But he’s nothing more than a back-up catcher, but because Jorge Posada is a fragile 38, Cervelli has become the de facto starter, earning 56 percent of the team’s playing time and accruing far too many at-bats.
Coming up through the Yanks’ system, Cervelli never cracked the Yanks’ top 20 lists. The 2008 Baseball America Prospect Handbook has him at 23 and cites his “above average catch-and-throw skills.” After playing for Tampa, he had “impressed scouts with his toughness and ability to grind through the season.” Last year, he moved up to 21st and again, Baseball America praised his defense. “His defense is first-rate,” the book says, with a plus arm and above-average receiving and blocking skills.” His bat would never play as anything better than a back-up.
This year, half of this prediction is true. After his 1-for-3 performance last night, Cervelli is hitting .255/.328/.317 with absolutely no power. (Since the arbitrary date of May 18, he’s hitting under .200 with a .500 OPS in over 170 plate appearances.) His offensive value has him at 5.3 runs below average. As a back-up catcher, we could tolerate 100-150 plate appearances of Francisco Cervelli, but he’s now at 239 PAs. His playing time is in no danger of lessening any time soon.
The bigger problem right now is that Cervelli’s defensive prowess has fallen off the face of the earth. The botched pop-up last night was his seventh error of the season, and only Jason Kendall, with 300 more innings, has a higher error totals. The Yanks’ catchers now lead the AL with 13 errors on the year. He has allowed two passed balls while pitchers have thrown 22 wild pitches with him behind the dish. He’s also thrown out only seven of 44 would-be basestealers, and while much of that rests with the Yanks’ pitchers’ inability to hold runners on, Cervelli’s arm just hasn’t been as strong or as accurate as billed. That 16 percent rate is worst among all AL catchers with at least 300 innings caught. He’s fidgety behind the plate, and often lets his enthusiasm get in the way of framing pitchers and receiving the ball. Last night, he jumped up on a few pitches and may have cost the Yanks’ hurlers some called strikes.
In terms of overall value, Cervelli is still contributing positively to the team. Before last night, his WAR sat 0.5, but just a few weeks ago, he was a one-win player. As his numbers decline further, that total will continue to drop. Based on his strong April, he should be able to pull in a 0 or positive WAR value, but it’s not going to be much when the dust settles.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have turned to Cervelli on a regular basis this year. Due to age and nagging injuries, Jorge Posada just hasn’t been able to play much. He couldn’t — or Girardi didn’t want him to — catch last night, a night after an off day following a day game. At most, he’ll catch two of four games against the Red Sox, and the Yankees will replace Jorge’s bat — 10.6 runs above average — with Cervelli for a swing of nearly 15 runs. He has become the Melky Cabrera of 2010, an adequate bench player overrated by many and granted too much playing time.
With the Yankees’ financial clout, they shouldn’t be rolling out near-replacement players at any position. Even though there is a benefit to developing cost-controlled young players, the final piece of that equation concerns those players’ qualities. They must be good cost-controlled young players, and right now, Francisco Cervelli does not fit the bill. If the Yankees cannot trust Jorge Posada to catch three out of four games against the Red Sox, the team absolutely needs someone better than Cervelli, and right now, that’s not going to happen.
So what, then, were the Yankees to do? The list of free agent catchers following the 2009 season was sparse. The team wasn’t going to bring back Jose Molina. The Ivan Rodriguez Experience was one no one wanted to relive, and he — along with Rod Barajas, Benjie Molina and Gregg Zaun — wanted to start. They could have thrown good money after so-so players, but they went with Cervelli instead. It is a decision that’s backfired.
As the season plays out, I’ll have to come to terms with Cervelli. Despite last night’s game, when he didn’t take charge of a pop-up and his pitcher couldn’t take charge, Cervelli isn’t going to make or break a season. But with Jesus Montero knocking on the door, the Yankees aren’t going to stick with Cervelli much beyond October. He’s a constant reminder that the team still hasn’t yet figured out how to put together an adequate bench, and his ample playing time is a constant reminder that the Yankees buried their collective heads in the sand over Jorge Posada’s age and potential health problems. They didn’t plan accordingly, and we’re stuck with Cervelli.
Getting in on the Jackson action
Posted by: | CommentsUpdate: Jackson got traded to Chicago three minutes before this was set to go. I’m not taking it down.
(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
The big story of this morning has been the White Sox pursuing Edwin Jackson. We learned earlier this week that the Diamondbacks planned to continue selling after they unloaded Dan Haren on the Angels, and Jackson, with his roughly $1.5 million remaining this year plus $8.35 million salary next year, figures to be among the first boarding a train out of Phoenix. The White Sox could keep him for their own rotation, or could flip him to the Nats for Adam Dunn. Yet there’s been something of a snag here.
The latest word is that Ken Williams is working on a bigger deal, which, if completed, would preclude the Jackson deal. That would open up an interesting situation for the Yankees. They might not want Jackson — in fact, I’m sure they don’t want to add him — but they do want Dunn. Could the Yanks slide into the White Sox place and make a series of deals that would net them a baseball-mashing lefty?
(AP Photo/Matt York)
There is a way the Yanks could make this interesting. The Diamondbacks have been trying to unload Chris Synder since last winter. He spent much of last year hurt, and he produced a paltry .304 wOBA in just 202 PA. While he’s rebounded this year, the Diamondbacks have their catcher in Miguel Montero. If the Yanks would be willing to take on Snyder — and perhaps Chad Qualls — they might be able to get the package, along with Jackson, for relatively cheap.
Why Snyder? For starters, he’d represent an upgrade at backup catcher. He’s a decent hitter, especially for a backup catcher, with a career .321 wOBA. Total Zone also rates him as an above average defender, though he has earned negative marks in each of the last two years. We have far smaller samples there, though, because he has only 436 PA in those two seasons. He’s a bit expensive for a backup, but he’d also provide insurance for Posada next year, and would also allow the Yanks to remain as patient as they’d like with Jesus Montero.
That leaves the Yanks options with Francisco Cervelli. They could send him to the Diamondbacks as part of the trade, though since the Nationals acquired Wilson Ramos yesterday I doubt he’d be wanted by the Nats. Sending him to AAA isn’t much of an option because of Montero, and sending him to AA doesn’t work because of Austin Romine. They’d basically have to trade him if they were to acquire Snyder. I’m not sure how it would work exactly, but if the Yanks could get Snyder and Jackson for Cervelli plus a meh prospect, I think that could work out. It would cost them a few dollars, but that’s a resource the Yankees have in abundance. Might as well use it to ultimately improve the team.
(AP Photo/Drew Angerer)
That would leave the Yanks with Dunn at DH and Snyder on the bench, and would presumably not cost them that much, because they’d absorb the contracts from Arizona. They’d flip one, and probably another meh prospect, for Dunn, who will cost around $4 million for the rest of the season. In other words, they’d get a better backup catcher and an ideal DH for somewhere between $6 and $7 mil, plus two prospects who would likely never crack the big league roster anyway.
With plenty of moving parts, it’s unlikely that the Yanks get involved to this degree. It does, however, seem to represent their best chance at improvement. If they want to keep Dunn from the Rays, they could do worse than swing a deal for Jackson and than dangle him to Washington.
Looking at the defense of Yankee catchers
Posted by: | CommentsOne of the Yankees’ obvious weaknesses this season is their defense behind the plate. Jorge Posada has long been a butcher back there, and even though Frankie Cervelli was voted as the organization’s best defensive catcher several years in a row by Baseball America, extended playing time in 2010 has exposed him as no better than average defensively. At least for now, I mean, he could always improve with more reps and experience.
Posada has thrown out just 19% of attempted basestealers this year, Cervelli even less at 14%, and that’s just part of it. The passed balls have allowed countless runners move up, and there’s no better example of it than this game against the Mariners two weeks ago. Posada allowed two runners to move up on a passed ball in the 8th inning, and one pitch later a two run single tied the game. While not completely responsible for the blown lead, the defensive miscue was certainly a big factor.
AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
Considering how much we’ve talked about catcher’s defense this year, I wanted to try and come up with an actual number for how many runs the Yanks’ backstops have cost them defensively this season. Because there are so many immeasurables when to comes to catcher’s defense, we’re going to have to stick with the basics: stolen bases, caught stealings, wild pitches, and passed balls. Of course this isn’t perfect, because it’s not just catchers that factor into those four stats, pitchers have a say as well. The broad assumption in this analysis is that the pitcher’s effect will even out when looking at the 30 teams across the first half of the season.
Stolen bases and caught stealings are nice and easy to understand, a guy either successfully stole a base or he didn’t. There’s a little more of a gray area with wild pitches and passed balls because official scorers and their sometimes questionable decisions come into play, and there are certainly wild pitches that a catcher doesn’t even have a chance to make a play on (say a pitch over everyone’s head to the backstop). I’m looking at it in a bottom line kinda way, did the catcher stop the ball or not? Good catchers will still stop a fair share of would-be wild pitches, and even then we’ll assume the number of plays a backstop had no chance on will even out given the sample.
I tallied up each teams total in the four stat categories for the 2010 season, then assigned run values to each event based on The Book. Defensively, a stolen base against costs a team 0.16 runs, but throwing a runner out trying to steal saves 0.45 runs. You don’t need to be a sabermetric whiz to understand that losing a baserunner hurts a team more than moving one up 90 feet helps. Wild pitches cost 0.26 runs, passed balls 0.28. It makes sense that those two are close in value, since they’re basically the same thing with two different names. I turned everything into a rate stat for comparison purposes, arbitrarily selecting 180 innings as my unit of time (20 games).
The big league average is exactly two runs lost defensively per 180 innings, which passes the sniff test because it’s tough for a catcher to prevent runs in this analysis. He’d have to throw out a ton of runners to actually save runs, which just isn’t realistic. It basically comes down to who gives up the fewest runs. The AL average is 2.2 runs lost, the NL 1.9. I ran the numbers just to see if the small ball NL approach had a big impact in the numbers, but it’s good to see that they’re close. I’m going to use ML average for the rest of the post.
You can see my entire table of results here. The table’s too big to embed, so just click the link if you want to see the full breakdown by team. My fancy acronym for this stat is cRSAA/180, which stands for catcher’s runs saved above average per 180 innings. Yes, I just wanted a nerdy name, so sue me. All I did was figure out how many total runs a team lost defensively per 180 innings, and compared it to that 2.0 ML average. The Cardinals have the game’s best defensive catching corps, saving 1.9 runs above the league average per 180 innings. This passes the sniff test because Yadier Molina has a reputation as a studly defensive backstop. The Diamondbacks are on the other end of the spectrum at 2.4 runs below average. Apparently they’re bad at everything.
The Yankees came in at 1.4 runs below average, tied for fourth worst in the game. The only teams below them are the D-Backs, Pirates (-1.6 cRCAA/180) and Angels (-1.5), and they were tied with both the Giants and Red Sox. Over a 162 game season, assuming nine inning games, the Yanks’ catchers will cost them 11.34 runs defensively, which is basically one win. For comparison’s sake, St. Louis would pick up a win and half because of their catcher’s defense, Arizona would lose another two games. The different between the best and worst teams is three and a half wins, hardly insignificant.
It probably didn’t surprise you that the Yanks came in towards the bottom of the pack, or at least it shouldn’t have. Let’s break it down individually for Posada and Cervelli…
First of all, apologies to Chad Moeller. Secondly, as you can see neither Posada or Cervelli are assets on defense. Posada has cost the team 1.8 runs below average with his glove for every 180 innings he’s caught this year, Cervelli a touch less at 1.1. If Posada were to catch 120 nine inning games, his defense would cost the team 10.8 runs, or one win. Of course his offense, even at 2010 levels, would provide just over 17 runs, so the next gain is six runs, for all intents and purposes.
Cervelli, on the other hand, would cost the team 6.6 runs below average if he played 120 nine inning games, and his bat would also be another 7.4 runs below average assuming 2010 levels of production. All told, the Yankees would be 14 runs in the red with Cervelli as their starting catcher compared to six runs in the black with Posada. It’s a 20 run difference, two wins in a tight AL East. This assumes a set designated hitter and that only one of the two catchers play per game.
Yes, this is an extremely oversimplified way of looking at things. There are parts of catcher’s defense that we can’t even begin to quantify, but the information we do have tells us that the Yanks’ catchers are hurting them with the glove. Posada mitigates all of that damage with his stick, Cervelli not so much. He’s supposed to be just a backup though, so in theory it shouldn’t hurt as much. You expect those guys to be below average. The real problem is that Cervelli has had to play so much this season that both his bat and glove have become detriments to the team in a very real way.
Catching issues are hard to hide just because of the nature of the game. The catcher is in on every play, every pitch. The demands of the position are so extraordinary that most of the time you’re just looking for the least harmful option. You don’t expect offense, you just hope for something more than complete incompetence. The Yankees’ catchers are holding them back a bit this year, but their pitching and offense is good enough to more than make up that lost win in the standings.
Behind the plate, a conundrum
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Credit: AP Photo/Peter Morgan
Finding a good Major League catcher isn’t easy. Finding a good Major League catcher who can hit is even harder. For the last 13 seasons, though, the Yankees have had just that in Jorge Posada, and now I’m starting to wonder if Jorge’s time is behind the dish is running out.
This year, Jorge has fought off a variety of injuries and has appeared in 45 of the team’s first 72 games. Of the team’s 635.1 innings, he has caught just 222.0 — or around one-third — of them. As his 147 OPS+ and his .279/.386/.524 line indicates, he can still mash the ball, but his days as the regular catcher are behind him.
To pick up the slack, the Yanks have turned to 24-year-old Francisco Cervelli. Never known for his offense while rising through the Yanks’ farm system, Cervelli has a whopping 21 games of AAA experience under his belt, and the Yankees have been milking him for all of his worth since he arrived in the Majors last year. Overall this year, his numbers aren’t too shabby. He’s hitting .287/.368/.367, and pitchers have seemingly enjoyed throwing to him in the 383.1 innings he’s caught.
But Cervelli is something of a sheep in wolf’s clothing. His overall numbers are powered by a 6-for-12 start to the season and a hot streak that saw him hitting .400 through mid-May. Since May 18, when he went a costly 0-for-4 in a Yankee loss to the Red Sox, Cervelli is hitting just .211/.302/.267 with 16 strike outs in 108 plate appearances. He has just four extra-base hits in that span. The truth is that this May-June Cervelli is closer to reality than the April-May Cervelli who hit .400/.471/.517 over 71 plate appearances.
What are the Yankees to do? When I examined this issue a few weeks ago, I wondered how the team would handle Posada. The answer has become clearer recently: The Yankees will, with Nick Johnson out, use Jorge to DH as often as they can. As the trade deadline approaches, it’s certainly easier for the team to acquire a bat to replace Johnson, but doing so would push Jorge into the field more often. It’s questionable at best as to whether Posada’s body can withstand catching nearly every day from July through late October. He’s far better off as the DH right now.
So the Yankees can move forward with Cervelli for the time being. Austin Romine, while hitting a robust .294/.360/.447 at AA, won’t make the big jump to the Majors. He’s not a fringe prospect as Cervelli was, and the Yankees would rather see him develop than be moved up too quickly. Jesus Montero‘s hitting hasn’t been up to par at AAA, and the 20-year-old may not see his future behind the plate anyway.
As problems go, this isn’t a bad one to have, and I’d be surprised if the Yanks tried to land a catcher at the trade deadline. After all, their price tags are generally just too steep. There is now, however, some urgency behind the developments of Romine and Montero. Someone will soon have to step up to replace Jorge no matter how tough a task that would be.
Francisco Cervelli gets the man in
Posted by: | CommentsThe Tampa Bay Rays have a new mantra, and it appears that Francisco Cervelli is feeling the vibe all the way up the east coast.
Last year the Rays didn’t fare too well with runners in scoring position. They weren’t terrible, hitting .269 as a team, 10th in the majors. But they surely noticed that four of the nine clubs in front of them were the AL playoff teams. If they were going to succeed in 2010 they’d need a few breaks, one of them being the ability to bring home men in scoring position. This led to a new drill in spring training under new hitting coach Derek Shelton.
Earlier this season John Romano of the St. Petersburg Times described the new team philosophy and its mantra: Get The Man In, or GTMI. The acronym works better, because apparently the players use a variation of Man when they refer to the drill. The idea behind it is to make better contact with a man on third and less than two outs. Strikeouts can be deadly in those situations. Merely putting the ball in play in many cases will put a run on the board, even if it means using an out.
And you know what? It’s working. As Steve Slowinski of DRays Bay examined last month, the Rays are not only getting more hits with runners in scoring position, they’re also striking out less and hitting for more power. This represents a stark change from last year, when the Rays struck out more and hit for less power when they had a chance to plate some runs. It has certainly shown up in the runs column, as the Rays have gone from 4.96 runs per game in 2009, fifth in the AL, to 5.36 runs per game this year, third in the AL.
Photo credit: Gail Burton/AP
Francisco Cervelli has gotten that message, though he doesn’t have a dugout full of teammates repeating the mantra. As we saw yesterday, Cervelli’s production has dropped of late, something that was to be expected. There was just no way he was going to hit in the mid-.300s with an OBP over .400. He’s good, and might be better than his minor league numbers indicate, but he’s not that good.
But while Cervelli’s numbers have dropped since he started playing full-time, he’s still produced at times when the Yankees have needed him. With runners in scoring position he’s hitting .447/.500/.553. That amounts to 17 hits in 51 chances (that’s PA, not AB), which is pretty damn amazing. He has struck out only six times with runners in scoring position. He’s also doing an excellent job with a runner on third and less than two outs. He’s only faced 13 such situations, and in five he’s gotten the job done with either a single or a sac fly. He has also walked four times and been hit by a pitch. The only blemish there are the two strikeouts, but two in 13 tries is still pretty good.
Where Cervelli has truly excelled this season is with a runner on third and two outs. He’s faced that situation 14 times and has gotten the man in ten times, nine with hits and one with a bases loaded walk. That makes for 17 RBI. On the season Cervelli has just 29. So while his production might have dropped, he’s still hitting in those critical situations.
Normally I’d say that this is not a repeatable skill, that there are copious amounts of luck involved. While I still stand behind the latter, the Rays have me wondering about the former. They went into the season with a deliberate focus on getting the man in, and they’re executing. It’s doubtful that Cervelli will continue hitting quite this well with runners in scoring position, but if he maintains even a hint of the pace he’s on it will be valuable to the Yankees. He’s already helped put wins on the board.
Regression and Maintenance: The story of Gardner and Cervelli
Posted by: | CommentsRegression to the mean. It’s a buzz term in the world of baseball statistical analysis. The premise is that baseball is such a complex game that we’re bound to see outlying performances all the time. Eventually, after a good number of plate appearances or innings, a player’s numbers will start to resemble his true talent level. Sometimes that will involve a complete correction, in which a player performs worse than his true talent and the numbers even out at the end of the year. Other times the player will just revert to his true talent and his season will look a degree better because of the hot streak. Either way, the player eventually regresses.
(And, just to eliminate any confusion, regression don’t necessarily mean downward. A player who starts cold and brings his numbers up also regresses. In 2009 Mark Teixeira regressed after his April performance.)
At the beginning of the season the Yankees were receiving production from two unexpected players: Francisco Cervelli and Brett Gardner. While some were greatly optimistic about Gardner heading into the season, I don’t think anyone could have predicted his insanely hot start. Absolutely no one predicted Cervelli’s torrential production early on. These two Yankees make for an interesting storyline, especially considering what they’ve done lately.
Cervelli: The story of regression
Photo credit: Rob Carr/AP
Early in the season opposing pitchers just couldn’t figure out how to make Francisco Cervelli hit his dinks and dunks to fielders. Everything seemed to find a patch of grass, or the dirt between fielders. On May 14, after a 2 for 4 day against Minnesota, Cervelli was hitting .415/.583/.528. No one in their right mind predicted he’d maintain that level of production. Yet many bought into the Cervelli hype. He did, after all, hit .298 last season. Plus, only the strongest of heart and mind can avoid being seduced by his wine bar eyes. But because he had only 101 plate appearances last year, we never got a sense of his true talent level.
Since that day in May — after which, coincidentally, he took over catching duties full-time while Jorge Posada hit the DL — Cervelli has fallen hard. In 93 PA, which covers more PA than his early season hot streak, he is hitting .200/.315/.227. That, too, is not necessarily indicative of his true talent level, but it certainly is a correction of sorts. It has brought his season numbers down to a much more believable .282/.374/.344. If he hit that in 350 PA as the sometimes-starter, I think everyone would be satisfied.
The good news: he actually increased his walk rate during this span. It’s why his .200 BA hasn’t been absolutely awful during this span. Instead it’s been tolerably awful.
Gardner: Maintenance, my man
Photo credit: Frank Franklin II/AP
At the start of the season, if you’ll remember back that far, Joe Girardi actually platooned Brett Gardner with Marcus Thames in left field. That didn’t last too long, not only because of Thames’s atrocious defense, but also because of Gardner’s stellar bat. In his first 108 PA, ending with the Boston series in early May, Garnder was hitting .344/.425/.419. Again, this isn’t something anyone could have expected him to maintain, but even if he settled into his true talent he would have quite an impressive season.
What we learned since, I think, is that no one has a good idea of Gardner’s true talent level. In his next 95 PA he dipped a bit, hitting .250/.326/.333, but then he got hot again. A thumb injury has taken away some playing time, but it hasn’t affected his performance. In June he is 10 for 22 with five walks, two doubles, a triple, and a homer. That has brought his season line up to .317/.400/.422, so while that’s a bit lower than his peak, it hardly represents a severe regression.
Where will Gardner end? No one, absolutely no one, can tell you with any degree of certainty. Like most players he has hot and cold spells, so it’s tough to tell what’s real and what’s a hot streak. It does appear, however, that Gardner can be more than the fourth outfielder which many people pegged him as. If that’s the case, he might have saved the Yanks the millions they would have otherwise spent on Carl Crawford.
Andy excellent again as Yanks take opener
Posted by: | CommentsI went out to the Stadium tonight, but it didn’t really feel like I was there. The place was tame, though I kind of expected that given the time of year and match-up. The game also went as quickly as we’ve seen a Yanks game, just two hours and 19 minutes. That’s what happens when the teams score in bursts and the pitchers otherwise roll. The Yanks got to Brett Myers early, and it was enough for Andy Pettitte.
Biggest Hit: Cervelli opens it up
Photo credit: Bill Kostroun/AP
Things seem to be breaking Brett Myers’s way this year. His peripherals are good, not great, though his ability to keep the ball in the park, a problem for him during his days with Philadelphia, have certainly helped him out. In fact, nearly all of his other peripherals are right in line with his career. That includes strikeout rate, walk rate, hit rate, batting average against, and OBP against. His SLG against, however, is a puny .398, down from .443 for his career.
The Yanks took care of business early, putting Myers on the ropes right at the start. Curtis Granderson got it started with a one-out double, and then the Yanks kept the pressure on. Teixeira walked, and then Cano singled to load the bases. Swisher worked a 3-2 count before taking a walk, bringing home Granderson and opening the scoring. Jorge Posada struck out, but one batter later Francisco Cervelli grounded one up the middle to score two. The hit was huge. The Yanks will feature a weak bottom of the order this weekend, and for one of them to come through when the top of the order has done its job can, and probably will, be the difference in these games.
The hit was big for Cervelli, too. When Jorge Posada took a foul ball off his foot on May 16th, Cervelli was hitting .393/.460/.500. Clearly that wouldn’t last. Full-time exposure caught up to him, and he’s hit .188/.306/.217 in his last 86 PA. He’s better than that, I’m sure, and if he ends the season at .280/.372/.344 I think we’ll all be pleased. Still, huge hit. Turned out to be the difference maker.
Biggest Pitch: We’ll just give it to Pettitte
Photo credit: Bill Kostroun/AP
Normally the starting pitcher has some kind of impact situation where he comes through heroically, setting down his opponent and putting his team back on offense. Pettitte didn’t really run into much of that last night. He had a little trouble in the second, but even then it was a bloop, a walk, and a double. After that he cruised. Even in the eighth he was all but out of the inning until Jeter and Cano failed to connect on a double play. So even though there weren’t any big swings for Pettitte he still has the biggest pitches of the night.
Photo credit: Bill Kostroun/AP
There were a few instances where Astros’ hitters made solid contact off Pettitte. For instance, in the sixth Jeff Keppinger, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Lee all hit decent outfield flies. But they weren’t scorchers. In fact, if you follow the FanGraphs link below you’ll see that while they’re classified as fliners — something that’s between a liner and fly ball — all three fall further under the fly ball category (hence the fliner, fly designation). In other words, they weren’t rockets at luckily positioned players.
In terms of WPA, Joba’s strikeout of Berkman was the biggest negative swing of the game. With the tying run on third that’s understandable. The biggest positive swing for the Astros was Manzella’s double. Again, the Yanks had the lead and the two runners came on a walk (after a tough AB) and a bloop. Again, well-pitched game for the Yanks.
Just as a quick side story. When Joba delivered ball one to Keppinger, the guy in front of me turned to his girlfriend and said that it was an unintentional intentional walk. Yeah. Because when you can walk Jeff Keppinger to load the bases for Lance Berkman, you have to do it.
This, that, and the other
It looks like Teixeira is back in turn-it-around mode. He hit well in the Baltimore series and he continued that last night, going 1 for 3 with a walk, RBI, and run scored. I have a feeling that this time his turnaround is for real. Then again, I said that at the beginning of May.
Good to see Jorge pick up a hit. It’s only his fourth since coming back, and he has yet to hit for extra bases. With his two strikeouts last night he’s whiffed 11 times in 37 PA since June 2. After the layoff I expected he’d go on a rehab assignment, just go get back in the rhythm. Hopefully he’s getting there now.
In the annoyances department, Tommy Manzella drove in the first two Astros runs and scored the third. Kid has an OPS below .550. Yes, it happens. It’s baseball. Doesn’t make it any less annoying. Thankfully, it’s the kind of thing we’ll forget by the time Javy Vazquez throws out the first pitch tomorrow. Probably before that, even.
And, in the best news of the night, Andy Pettitte picked up his 200th win as a Yankee. That makes 237 for his career. He’ll need quite a few more seasons like this if he’s going to flirt with 300. The odds on that have to be pretty long.
Also, if the outfielders keep doing that, I’ll keep posting the pic.
Chart and box
The line never crosses into Astros territory. I approve.
Traditional box at .com. More green lines at FanGraphs.
Up Next
Yay for Saturday afternoon games. It’s Javy Vazquez against Wandy Rodriguez.
The aging catcher conundrum
Posted by: | CommentsCredit: AP Photo/Peter Morgan
In just over two months, Jorge Posada will celebrate his 39th birthday, and age is starting to wear down the Yanks’ erstwhile catcher. His team has played 54 games, but Jorge has appeared in just 28 of them, slowed by various leg and muscle injuries that tend to rob older players of playing time.
Now that’s he back from the DL, Joe Girardi and the Yankee braintrust have to figure out what role Posada will play this year. As his .323/.404/.594 line shows, he can still hit, and with Nick Johnson on the 60-day DL and probably a lost cause for the season, the team has a DH hole that needs filling. Is Jorge their man?
Initially, it’s very tempting to say yes. While Jorge probably won’t sustain a 176 OPS+ throughout the rest of the season, if he can duplicate his career line — .278 average with an .862 OPS — he’d be among the top designated hitters in the American League. Furthermore, the team would be able to keep him in the lineup on a near-daily basis, something they can’t seem to do while he’s catching, and he would still get to catch a game or two a week as other players rotate through the DH spot. As much as I’m not a supporter of the rotating DH, a Jorge Posada platoon where he is in that role for five out of seven games would do wonders for the Yanks’ offense.
But it’s not as simple as all that. For one, the Yanks are facing a reluctant Posada. As ESPN New York’s Rob Parker explored yesterday, Posada is not at all keen on relinquishing his position. He is, however, willing to sacrifice some of his time behind the plate because he recognizes that age isn’t on his side. Last year, Jorge appeared in 100 games as a catcher; this year, he has seen action behind the dish in 22 contests.
“I know that I can catch and I can be out there but a lot of circumstances have come and I’m going to have to be smart about it,” Posada said to ESPN. “If I’m in the lineup, I’m happy. I would like to catch here and there sometimes, but I understand what the future holds.”
Even with Posada’s desire to catch, it’s questionable whether he should. His defensive metrics are all on the negative side, and he has thrown out just 4 of 21 base runners. That 19 percent caught stealing rate is only two ticks higher than Victor Martinez’s figure. Never a great catcher, Posada isn’t nearly as nimble behind the dish as he was in his early 30s, and his legs probably can’t stand up to the rigors of four or five more months at catcher.
The Yankees, though, have few other choices. Right now, as Posada’s foot heals and the team figures out what they have in Jorge going forward, Francisco Cervelli will continue to man the backstop. On the surface, he’s doing an admirable job, hitting .294 with a .375 on-base percentage and 24 RBI. As a back-up catcher, that’s fantastic, but as Cervelli has seen more playing time, he’s become exposed both at the plate and behind it. Hitless for June, Cervelli is now 3 for his last 27 and 10 for his last 57. That’s a .175 batting average for those keeping score at home.
Defensively, Frankie is a better catcher than Jorge, but he’s struggled throwing out runners. Opponents have stolen 18 out of 20 with Cervelli catching, and although some of that blame lies with the Yanks’ pitchers, teams will continue to run until they’re caught. Cervelli’s game, in other words, is ripe for the pickin’, and that’s exactly what teams are doing.
So the Yankees are stuck. They could risk putting their soon-to-be 39-year-old offensive weapon behind the plate and playing him until he can go no further. Or they can press into service their 24-year-old stop-gap who is supposed to keep the position warm until Jesus Montero or Austin Romine are ready for the big leagues. As a problem to have, it’s certainly not a big one, but how the Yanks address it could impact their season well into October.
