River Avenue Blues

Steamer Projections and the 2019 Yankee Infield

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More of this in 2019, please. (New York Times)

It’s hard to believe that we’re nearly there–kind of. Spring Training is mere weeks away despite how long and gruelingly slow this offseason has felt. Pitchers and catchers reporting, the beginnings of real workouts, intrasquad games, and even Grapefruit League games can feel anticlimactic once those moments hit, but at this point, we’re starved for any baseball action and those’ll certainly do. With this time of year also come projections. Right now at FanGraphs, Steamer projections for the 2019 season are live. Let’s take a look at how the Yankees’ infielders stack up against the rest of the league. Standard caveat applies: projections are not predictions.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez had a bad year in 2018, especially considering his talent level. There were signs of underperfomance that could be corrected, though, and he was injured for a good portion of the year. A bounceback is certainly in order, and Steamer sees one. It projects him for a .245/.322/.480 line, good for a .342 wOBA and 115 wRC+. In terms of counting stats, it sees him with 27 homers in 483 PA. At first glance, that slash line seems a bit low considering his talent level, but when we consider last year, his injuries, etc., it makes a bit of sense. More encouragingly, that is the best projection for any AL catcher. Steamer has Gary leading AL catchers in just about everything: HR, RBI, SLG, wOBA, wRC+, and fWAR.

First Base

The two most insecure spots in the Yankee lineup are the neighbors, first base and second base. That isn’t to say there isn’t upside or talent there, but they’re big question marks. At first base, the question is likely “Who’s going to play there?” The two main candidates are Luke Voit and Greg Bird. In Steamer’s eyes, Voit will get more playing time there with 389 plate appearances and Bird garnering 190. The system projects both to be above average–a 115 and 103 wRC+ respectively–with a combined 24 homers and a total of 1.4 fWAR: 1.2 from Voit and 0.2 from Bird.

Second Base

The second base question is one Mike took a stab at earlier in the week in examining the Yankees’ newest acquisition, D.J. Lemaiheu. Steamer says a .269/.333/.388 line, good for a 97 wRC+. That’s…fine? It’s probably lower than what the Yankees expect, given the contract they gave him and some of the underlying data. If that’s what he ends up with, I’d be okay with it–can’t quibble with that average and OBP, really, especially if his defensive contributions continue to be stellar.

Steamer also categorizes Gleyber Torres as a second baseman and projects him at .257/.328/.439: a .330 wOBA and 107 wRC+. That seems underwhelming, but remember our caveat: it’s not a prediction, but more a baseline from which he can go up or down. It’s also worth noting that, like Sanchez, Steamer projects Torres to lead AL 2B in both wOBA (tied with Jonathan Schoop) and wRC+.

Shortstop

The most surprising thing about the shortstop projections is that they see Troy Tulowitzki getting 302 PA. And they’re relatively productive–a .318 wOBA and 99 wRC+. If you told me that Tulo would get that many PA, I’d assume he was really ripping the cover off the ball in addition to being healthy. But with a bit more thought, 302 PA of league average production out of him would be more than welcome.

Steamer also takes a stab at Didi’s shortened season and sees him with 54 games and 221 PA of 104 wRC+ hitting. Between him and Tulo, that’s 532 PA of slightly above league average hitting from the shortstop position. Given the tenuousness of the situation–a reclamation project and an injured star as the options–that’s pretty encouraging.

Third Base

For whatever reason, Steamer sees Miguel Andujar as only racking up 545 PA this year, but they’re a productive 545 PA: .341 wOBA, 115 wRC+, 23 homers, and 28 walks (only 25 last year). That’s a really good jumping off point, especially for a second year player. It doesn’t look as great compared to other third basemen, considering Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, and Matt Chapman all play there, but all-in-all, I’d take that from Andujar every time. His defensive projection (-9) is the worst among everyone who’ll actually play third (Nick Castellanos won’t see much hot corner action anymore) and that limits his fWAR projection to just 2.0.

Overall

While this is a far cry from the 2009 infield, it’s still good enough. A bounceback from Sanchez will go a long way towards making it look good, as will progression/maintenance from Torres and Adujar. I’d be lying if I said I weren’t concerned about the right side and shortstop, though, and hopefully the Yankees can patch things together there. The outfield (and DH)–which we’ll examine at another time–should help carry the softer spots in the infield, though, and overall, I’m not worried about how this team will hit.

Appreciate CC Sabathia in his Final Year

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Let’s get one more for the big fella. (Elsa/Getty)

Something felt off the day the Yankees hosted the Houston Astros in the Bronx for the 2015 Wild Card Game. Even before the Yanks were shut out by Dallas Keuchel in a masterful 3 hit performance, the atmosphere was subdued. That the Yankees were led by Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann surely didn’t help; this wasn’t a team, like the opposing Astros, that felt like its best days were yet to come. But there was something else: a day earlier, CC Sabathia had checked himself into rehab for alcohol abuse.

It’s hard to remember whether it felt like we’d truly seen the last of CC, but it certainly felt like CC’s days as an effective Major League starting pitcher were behind him. In the three seasons prior, he’d pitched only 424.1 innings and missed most of 2014 with an injury. What we saw when he was on the mound looked nothing like the CC Sabathia we’d been accustomed to seeing: with reduced velocity and diminished stuff, he had a 4.81 ERA (83 ERA+), a WHIP of 1.4 and was worth only 0.6 bWAR.

That Sabathia had a 2.17 ERA over his final 5 starts went mostly unnoticed, but as Jay Jaffe noted in an astute column in May, this was the beginning of a late-career renaissance for the big lefty. He had taken a lesson from Andy Pettitte, another lefty who revitalized his career in its final days, and began utilizing a cut fastball. When Sabathia returned in 2016, he had not only begun the process of overcoming his alcoholism—he returned as a pitcher with a second wind.

Across 481.1 innings since Opening Day 2016, Sabathia has a 3.76 ERA (117 ERA+), a figure which has improved with each season, and has been worth 8.3 bWAR. That success is powered by late movement and pinpoint control that minimizes the quality of contact against him. In 2018, batters only squared up on CC 28.5% of the time, good for 8th in the league; by contrast, he induced soft contact 25.1% of the time, which ranked 4th. No pitcher induced softer contact, as batters averaged only 84.4 mph off when they made contact. Few, if any, 5th starters are more effective.

His success comes even as the quality of his repertoire has diminished. His average fastball velocity in 2018 was just under 92 mph, a significant decline from over 95 mph in 2009—a big reason why he throws the pitch only 2% of the time compared to nearly half of the time a decade ago (he now uses the cutter roughly 50% of the time). Only the most dedicated and talented are capable of reinventing themselves as a completely new version of themselves: remember, he’d never thrown a cutter before 2016.

As unlikely as such a renaissance may have seemed in 2015, there were always signs that CC would be up to the task. When the Yankees signed him 11 years ago, he was one of baseball’s most feared pitchers, with an overpowering fastball and intimidating lefty physique. He was fresh off a legendary post-deadline performance with the Milwaukee Brewers, and inked a 7 year, $161 million contract to christen the new Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were short on pitching, had been bounced in the ALDS 3 of the previous 4 seasons (missing the postseason in the other), and needed an ace to rescue them. CC was tasked with being the guy to do it.

He somehow lived up to those expectations. In his first 4 seasons in pinstripes (2009-12), he boasted a 3.22 ERA (135 ERA+) in 905 innings pitched, good for 20.7 bWAR. His 1.98 ERA in the 2009 postseason, which earned him ALCS MVP honors, helped carry the Yankees to their 27th championship. Over those 4 years, he finished in the top 5 of the Cy Young voting 3 times and made 3 All-Star Games. He was a dominating pitcher in the height of his prime—a sight the Yankees and their fans hadn’t seen in quite some time.

That’s a big reason why, I suspect, watching CC Sabathia pitch is so much fun these days. Watching him induce slow grounder after slow grounder isn’t the same as watching him overpower David Ortiz, of course, but in his new, deliberate methods there are echoes of the flame-throwing ace of yesterday.

CC approaches several career milestones as he prepares for what will be his final year as a big leaguer. With three more wins, CC will have won more games as a Yankee than any pitcher save 9 others. Four more wins and he reaches 250, which, in the age of the almighty bullpen, is no small achievement. 14 more strikeouts and he will be the 17th pitcher in MLB history (and only the 3rd lefty) to reach the 3,000 career strikeout mark.

As he reaches these significant figures, all of which should come fairly early in the year barring significant injury, we will be asked to debate his Hall of Fame credentials (I’d vote for him, but he is a close case), but those questions can wait for 6 more years. Rather than pondering his future legacy, we should instead appreciate his final season and be thankful it will come in pinstripes.

After all, this was the man who brought the Yankees back to the promised land on his first try, seeming at home alongside Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. He stuck it out through the team’s less successful days, hit rock-bottom in his personal life and rebounded into an unrecognizable but still effective crafty lefty—all while radiating the affable, lovable aura that has made him a clubhouse leader and mentor to the next generation of Yankee stars.

We should be sure to enjoy his last campaign—for we will see countless other pitchers don the pinstripes, but there will only ever be one CC Sabathia.

Friday Links: Gregorius, Rivera, Potential Rule Changes, Leiter

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Didi. (Elsa/Getty)

Pitchers and catchers report in less than three weeks and the first Grapefruit League game is four weeks from tomorrow. One month until glorious, glorious baseball. Here are some miscellaneous links and notes to check out in the meantime.

Gregorius begins baseball activities

Didi Gregorius has started limited baseball activities as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. He is taking one-handed swings and fielding grounders without throwing. It’s not much, I know, but he has to start somewhere. Gregorius is progressing well enough that he’s getting his swing in order and having batted balls hit at him. That’s not nothing. Soon he’ll get his rebuilt elbow involved.

Sir Didi had his Tommy John surgery on October 17th. Position players typically have a shorter recovery time than pitchers and everyone involved says Gregorius will play this season. We just don’t know when, exactly. Brian Cashman has indicated the Yankees will let Gregorius complete his rehab before bringing him back. They’re not going to cut corners and let him DH a la Shohei Ohtani. Troy Tulowitzki and DJ LeMahieu give the Yankees some insurance here, but the sooner Didi returns, the better.

Rivera to take on expanded role with Yankees?

During a recent radio interview, new Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera revealed he will be “teaching pitching” with the Yankees in some capacity. “I’m going to start working with the New York Yankees and teaching pitching. So many guys throw hard but don’t have command. We need to teach these boys to pitch. Pitchers are getting away from pitching and are focused on throwing hard,” Rivera said.

For what it’s worth, the Yankees have not formally announced a role for Rivera, and Andy Martino says the two sides have not yet discussed an expanded role in the organization. Mariano serves as a guest instructor in Spring Training each year and that’s pretty much it, as far as we know. I’m certain the Yankees will happily bring Rivera aboard in an expanded role, and it sounds like Rivera is ready to do it. Right now, there is no formal arrangement in place. I’m guessing there will be one soon.

MLB looking to change disabled list, option time

According to Ron Blum, MLB has proposed changes to the disabled list and optional assignments that would make it more difficult for teams to manipulate their roster. Specifically, the league wants to go back to a 15-day DL, and they want players to spend at least 15 days in the minors before they are eligible to be recalled. Right now they have to wait ten days (unless there’s an injury). The MLBPA has not yet agreed to the proposal and it’s unclear if they will.

Disabled list trips have increased more than 30% since the league switched from a 15-day DL to a 10-day DL. Some of that is due to legitimate injuries and some of it is due to teams manipulating their roster. Specifically, clubs will put a starter on the 10-day DL to essentially skip a start for extra rest without playing shorthanded. Also, having to wait 15 days to recall a player rather than ten will throw a wrench into bullpen shuttles and the opener strategy to some degree, since many multi-inning relievers are send down immediately after being used. Adding the extra five days to the disabled list and optional assignments could have a big impact.

Leiter leaving YES Network

Al Leiter will not return to the YES Network broadcast booth this season, reports Andrew Marchand. He’s leaving to spend more time with his family. “I’m grateful for my 12 years. It was a family. I know it sounds like BS, but it is true. It is hard to leave. It is more about being able to see (my son and three daughters) doing their things,” Leiter said. Marchand says YES will not hire a new analyst to replace Leiter. They’ll give his games to others already on staff.

Leiter’s son Jack is a high school senior and a top 2019 draft prospect. MLB.com currently ranks him as the 20th best prospect in the draft class and says he has a “solid four-pitch mix and knows what to do with all of his offerings.” I imagine Al wants to be around for what will be a very important year for Jack. Marchand says the decision was a surprise — Leiter was scheduled to increase his YES workload this year — but it’s understandable. I enjoy Leiter in the booth. I’ll miss him.

If the Yankees won’t sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, Nick Castellanos would be a good fallback plan

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(Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

As busy as the Yankees have been this offseason, they still have room in their lineup for one more bat. In a perfect world that bat would be Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. It’s not often you can sign a 26-year-old superstar caliber player. The Yankees seem content to let Harper and Machado go to other teams. It’s disappointing. It really is.

Machado and Harper are not the only bats on the market. Mike Moustakas and Marwin Gonzalez continue to sit in free agency, though they qualify as good hitters more than great hitters. I’m sure the Mariners would love to unload Edwin Encarnacion and his $25M salary. He was a devastating hitter not too long ago. There are bats available. For sure.

Among those available bats is Tigers right fielder Nick Castellanos, who authored a .298/.354/.500 (130 wRC+) batting line with 23 homers as the only real threat in Detroit’s lineup last year (Miguel Cabrera missed 124 games to injury). The Tigers are expected to trade Castellanos, an impending free agent, at some point this year. His agent told Anthony Fenech he hopes the trade happens soon.

“He wants to win and understands the direction of the franchise right now is to procure prospects,” Castellanos’ agent, David Meter, said Tuesday night. “That being said, he would rather start with his new club going into spring training.”

I get why Castellanos wants to be traded as soon as possible — it must absolutely stink knowing you’re going to traded but have no idea where to or when it’ll happen — but the Tigers are not obligated to move him now. They’ll wait for the right deal, then act. Castellanos’ agent voiced his opinion for the record and that’s that. The Tigers will do what’s best for them when the time is right.

The Yankees already have four outfielders (Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton) for the three outfield spots and DH, plus Clint Frazier and the maybe possibly but probably not healthy Jacoby Ellsbury, so adding another outfielder is not a priority. The Yankees could make it work though, and Castellanos is really good. Let’s talk this out a bit.

1. Castellanos does what the Yankees like. As previously noted, the Yankees love players who hit the ball hard and hit the ball in the air. Last season Castellanos had the sixth highest hard contact rate (47.9%) and the 21st lowest ground ball rate (35.4%) among the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. His Statcast profile:

Outs above average is defense. We’ll talk about that in a bit. The offensive numbers are very promising. Great contact quality and great expected results. Castellanos doesn’t walk much (7.2% in 2018) but he’s cut down on strikeouts (22.3%) and he punishes the ball. Also, he’s 26. He turns 27 in March. That is an age when players often break out or have a career year. Whoever gets him might be buying the single best year of his career.

Furthermore, few right-handed hitters use the opposite field as well as Castellanos. He hit the sixth most fly balls and line drives to right field among righty hitters the last three years. (No. 1 on that list: DJ LeMahieu.) Here are Castellanos’ fly balls from 2016-18. This spray chart looks like it belongs to a left-handed pull hitter.

Think that’ll play in Yankee Stadium? The hard-hit tendencies, the non-grounder tendencies, and the opposite field tendencies make Castellanos a marvelous fit for the short porch. The kid can hit. He was a highly regarded prospect who went through some growing pains and is now blossoming into a middle of the order force. Every team could use someone like that, including the Yankees.

2. Where would they put him? Castellanos is a brutal defensive player according to both the numbers and the eye test. He started his career at third base, and when his glovework at the hot corner became untenable, the Tigers moved him to right field, where he hasn’t been any better. Some numbers:

  • 2016: -11 DRS (at third)
  • 2017: -14 DRS (at third)
  • 2018: -19 DRS (in right)

For all intents and purposes, Castellanos is a DH. The Yankees would have to put Stanton in left field full-time and move Gardner to the bench to make this work. I suppose they could use Castellanos at third or in right in a pinch, but, generally speaking, he should not be counted on to play defense.

The other option is first base, a position Castellanos has never played as a professional. The Yankees would have to give him a crash course at first base in Spring Training. That’s not ideal. My preference would be putting him at DH and letting him rake. Don’t put more on his plate and expect him to learn a new position. Not as a one-year rental. Get as much out of him as possible and move on.

3. The price might be dropping. According to Fenech, Detroit’s asking price for Castellanos is “believed to be one top-level prospect.” The Dodgers and Braves reportedly had interest in Castellanos earlier this winter and they’ve since signed A.J. Pollock and re-signed Nick Markakis, respectively. Some potential suitors are likely out of the running now, meaning the bidding war may not be as intense.

That said, Castellanos is quite good, and I imagine several other teams remain in the hunt. The Indians, Phillies, and Rockies jump out as potential landing spots. If the Tigers are truly seeking just “one top-level prospect,” man, that sounds wonderful to me. The Yankees are in to win it in 2019. Estevan Florial for one year of Castellanos? Jonathan Loaisiga? Albert Abreu or Domingo Acevedo or Deivi Garcia? I’m not sure I could say no to any of that, especially the pitchers.

Keep in mind the Yankees could potentially recoup a draft pick when Castellanos leaves as a free agent after the season. Not a high one — the Yankees will get a pick after the fourth round for losing a qualified free agent next winter because they’re going to pay luxury tax — but a pick nonetheless. That equals an extra prospect and extra bonus pool space. Give up a prospect to get Castellanos and the cost could potentially be offset somewhat by a compensation pick next year.

* * *

The Tigers avoided arbitration with Castellanos prior to the salary filing deadline earlier this month and will pay him $9.95M in 2019. Following the Sonny Gray trade, Cot’s has the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at $213.2M. (I have them at $221M but my estimates for various things are more conservative.) Add Castellanos and his $9.95M salary and the Yankees are still under the $226M second luxury tax tier, per Cot’s. It could work. On the field and in the books.

The downside here is Castellanos stinks defensively and is yet another right-handed bat in a lineup loaded with right-handed bats. But, as I’ve been saying, I’d rather add a great right-handed bat than a good left-handed bat who balances the lineup. Consider the possibilities:

  1. RF Aaron Judge
  2. CF Aaron Hicks
  3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
  4. DH Nick Castellanos
  5. 3B Miguel Andujar
  6. C Gary Sanchez
  7. 2B Gleyber Torres
  8. 1B Luke Voit
  9. SS Troy Tulowitzki

I know Judge will never hit leadoff but damn that’s a fun lineup, isn’t it? That leaves Gardner and LeMahieu on the bench. Gardner can replace Stanton for defense in the late innings, and, if Tulowitzki doesn’t cut it, Gleyber can move to short and LeMahieu can take over at second base. Either way, there is thunder up and down that lineup. Would be fun.

Castellanos is not Machado or Harper — by wRC+, his best season would be Machado’s fourth best season and Harper’s fifth best season — but he is a quality hitter who profiles well in Yankee Stadium. He can’t play defense (or run the bases) and he is another righty bat, but Castellanos would make the Yankees better and deeper. And, if the asking price is “one top-level prospect,” gosh, that might be too good to pass up for a team in position to contend for the World Series.

Mailbag: Pettitte, Bird, Pederson, Stowers, Bullpens, Judge

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Ten questions in this week’s mailbag. Just two more of these until pitchers and catchers report and Spring Training begins. Fun fun fun. Send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com.

Pettitte. (Scott Halleran/Getty)

Julian asks: Looks like Pettitte is going to fall off the HOF ballot in his first year. Do you think the lack of support is because of the PEDs or do writers really not think he’s worthy?

Andy Pettitte was able to avoid falling off the Hall of Fame ballot this year. He received 42 votes from the 425 voters, or 9.9%. Five percent is needed to remain on the ballot, so Pettitte will be up for the Hall of Fame again next year. Clearly though, there is a decided lack of support here. I think there are three reasons Pettitte did not receive more support this year and I’d rank them in this order:

  1. Voters don’t think he had a Hall of Fame caliber career.
  2. Voters ran out of room on their ten-spot ballots.
  3. The human growth hormone admission.

Performance-enhancing drug outrage is selective. Pettitte is well-liked and I don’t think the HGH admission will hurt him as much as, say, Manny Ramirez’s two suspensions. Derek Jeter is the only slam dunk Hall of Famer joining the ballot in the next two years, meaning voters will have more spots available for other players, and inevitably some of those spots will go to Pettitte. Enough to get him to 75%? Almost certainly not.

It seems to me the biggest thing working against Pettitte is his lack of Hall of Fame numbers. He had a great career, no doubt, but Andy was more about longevity than top of the rotation dominance. Mike Mussina, an objectively better pitcher than Pettitte, received only 20.3% of the vote in his first year on the ballot. Pettitte coming in under that in his first year makes sense to me. My guess is Pettitte will gain support in the coming years but probably not enough to get into Cooperstown.

Ross asks: Does Greg Bird have options left? and if so, how much time would he have to spend in the minors for an extra year of team control?

Bird has all three minor league options remaining. The Yankees called him up in August 2015 and haven’t sent him down for anything other than a rehab assignment since, and rehab assignments do not count as an option. Bird has three years and 53 days of service time (3.053). There are 186 days in the season but only 172 days are needed to receive credit for a full year of service time. Keep a player in the minors at least 15 days and you buy that extra year of team control (186 – 172 = 14, then add one extra day). Add those 15 days to the 53 days of service time Bird already has and you get 68 days. That’s how long he has to stay in the minors to push his free agency back year. Two months plus one week, give or two. Seems worthwhile, no? Giving Bird ten weeks in the minors to show he’s back while Luke Voit gets ten weeks to show he’s legit seems believable. Teams are increasingly unapologetic about their service time manipulation. They don’t even try to hide it. In Bird’s case, sending him down would be justifiable, so it wouldn’t look that obvious.

Rob asks: Which team do you think would be more effective over a season? A pitching staff made entirely of relievers that can pitch at least two innings a game or a staff full of starters that can go five innings each?

The reliever staff. They’d rarely go through the lineup a second time and they would be able to air it out more than someone who has to pace himself for five innings. This is the where baseball is heading now, right? Using pitchers less and less to avoid the third (and sometimes second) time through the order penalty, and to allow them to go max effort. Short bursts are almost always more effective than pacing yourself for the long haul.

Jeff asks: Dodgers shopping Joc Pederson, 3 years of team control, lefty power bat, can play left, could arguably hit well enough to break up Judge and Stanton, make sense for the Yankees to at least check in on the asking price?

Worth checking in, for sure. Pederson’s done a great job cutting down on strikeouts and he’s a legitimate 25-homer lefty bat. The Yankees could use one of those. The downside is he needs a platoon partner (career 61 wRC+ vs. LHP) and he probably shouldn’t play center field any longer. I don’t know what the Dodgers are seeking in return (a reliever, maybe?) but, if the Yankees are not going to pursue Bryce Harper, Pederson would be a fine fallback plan. Mashes righties, two years of control, great clubhouse guy. The Yankees could stick him in left field against righties and move Brett Gardner to the bench. I’d rather the Yankees just sign Harper. Since that’s off the table, Pederson is a good alternative. He’s a quality player and the Yankees have room for him.

Joc Joc Joc. (Harry How/Getty)

Alex asks: The Yankees have traded quite a few highly regarded prospects in the past few years (Rutherford, Mateo, Kaprelian, Fowler, Widener, Solak, Carroll, Tate, Sheffield, etc) which always causes some hand wringing; however, none of them seem to have particularly broken out. How do former Yankee prospects rank today? I would guess Widener or Sheffield lead the way?

Justus Sheffield is far and away the best prospect the Yankees have traded within the last two years or so. In fact, he’s the only former Yankees prospect to appear on the recent Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus top 100 lists. Baseball America ranked him 27th and Baseball Prospectus ranked him 50th. I’d rank the traded prospects like so:

  1. LHP Justus Sheffield
  2. OF Blake Rutherford
  3. OF Dustin Fowler
  4. RHP Dillon Tate
  5. 2B Nick Solak
  6. SS Jorge Mateo
  7. RHP James Kaprielian
  8. RHP Taylor Widener
  9. OF Billy McKinney
  10. RHP Cody Carroll

That’s not every prospect the Yankees have traded but it is the notables. Also, just to be clear, that’s how I’d rank them based on the players they are today, not the players they were when the Yankees traded them. Not counting Sheffield, Solak and Widener are the only players on that list who’ve raised their stock since the trade and neither is the type of prospect worth getting upset over. The Yankees have better infielders than Solak and a small army of Wideners in the system. They’ve done a good job picking which prospects to keep and which prospects to trade.

Bill asks: MLB.com ranked Stowers as our #23 prospect right after the trade, and Long as Seattle’s #8 prospect. Given, our farm is better than Seattle’s, and Stowers would probably rank higher than 23rd in their system. It seems like we got a Good deal for Gray, then messed it up by immediately trading him for a lesser prospect to go with the draft pick. Would you agree?

My preference would’ve been keeping Shed Long because he’s close to MLB ready and because, all other things being equal, the infielder is more valuable than the outfielder. It’s much easier to move an infielder to the outfield than vice versa. Moving to the infield, where the ball comes at you fast, is a tough adjustment for long-time outfielders. Very few have done it. Infield to outfield is the usual transition, not the other way around.

MLB.com has not yet released their updated 2019 rankings, so I wouldn’t look at their lists to compare Long to Stowers. Before the trade Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Stowers as the tenth best prospect in Seattle’s system. Now they rank Long ninth. The difference between the ninth and tenth best prospect in a farm system is nothing. It’s a matter of personal preference at that point. Based on Baseball America’s 2019 rankings, it was a fair value trade. Long and Stowers are similarly ranked.

Ross asks: If you were going to build an 8-man bullpen, and could use all relievers in the AL East to do it, who would be in that bullpen?

A case can be made the four best relievers in the AL East play for the Yankees. The Orioles have two solid relievers in Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier. Jose Alvarado is excellent with Tampa and Ryne Stanek is very good as well. Current Blue Jay Ken Giles has his moments. Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes just helped the Red Sox to the World Series. This is my eight-man all-AL East bullpen:

Closer: LHP Aroldis Chapman
Setup: RHP Dellin Betances, LHP Jose Alvarado
Middle: LHP Zach Britton, RHP Chad Green, RHP Adam Ottavino, RHP Ryne Stanek
Long: RHP Matt Barnes

Don’t sleep on my dude Tanner Scott. The Orioles will probably screw him up, but a lefty with an upper-90s fastball and an upper-80s slider is no joke. I think he’ll be in position to crack the eight-man all-AL East bullpen by midseason. Anyway, for fun, let’s use Steamer projections to compare the Yankees’ bullpen to the best eight-man bullpen the other four AL East teams could put together:

Yankees Other AL East Teams
Aroldis Chapman (+1.3 WAR) Diego Castillo, TB (+1.0 WAR)
Dellin Betances (+1.1 WAR) Matt Barnes, BOS (+0.8 WAR)
Chad Green (+0.7 WAR) Ken Giles, TOR (+0.7 WAR)
Zach Britton (+0.7 WAR) Jose Alvarado, TB (+0.6 WAR)
Adam Ottavino (+0.5 WAR) Ryne Stanek, TB (+0.6 WAR)
Luis Cessa (+0.2 WAR) Mychal Givens, BAL (+0.3 WAR)
Jonathan Holder (+0.2 WAR) Ryan Tepera, TOR (+0.3 WAR)
Tommy Kahnle (+0.2 WAR) Tanner Scott, BAL (+0.3 WAR)
Total: +4.9 WAR Total: +4.6 WAR

I assumed Cessa and Kahnle will get the final two bullpen spots and, for the other AL East teams, all I did was pick the top eight relievers by projected WAR. (There are a bunch of dudes at +0.3 WAR. I just grabbed three.) According to Steamer, the Yankees have the two best and four of the seven best relievers in the division. Seems good.

Andrew asks: I have three questions related to draft pick the Yanks got for Gray. 1) ESPN says the pick is worth about 10 Million dollars. Do you agree? 2) Would the Yanks lose this pick if they signed Harper? It would be their 2nd highest pick. 3) If the Yanks lose the pick, would they also lose the slot money?

Let’s go one by one. 1) Right now the pick in the Sonny Gray trade sits at No. 36 overall. It could still move a little bit as the last few qualified free agents sign. Matt Murphy’s research a few years ago found the 36th pick is worth about $18.6M, which is quite a bit more than the ESPN number. That $18.6M seems awfully high to me, but who am I to argue? 2) Yes, the Gray pick is the pick they’d lose to sign Harper or any other qualified free agent. 3) Yes, they’d lose the slot money if they forfeit that pick to sign a free agent. That pick and the bonus money would just disappear if the Yankees sign a qualified free agent. It doesn’t go to the team that lost the free agent like the old days.

Matt asks: Aaron Judge is due to hit his 100th career HR at some point in the first half of ‘19. (Knock on wood for health) What players in history have reached the 100 home run plateau the fastest and where would Judge fall in line? (The halfway point of the season would bring Judge to 375 games played.)

Judge is sitting on 83 career home runs and he’s averaged one home run every 3.54 games in his career. At that pace he’d hit his 100th career home run in his 61st game this season, or the 345th game of his career. The Yankees will play their 61st game on June 4th this year, when Judge will be 27 years and 39 days old. I’m sure there will be off-days and hot streaks and cold streaks during those first 61 games, but that’s the ballpark number. Here are the quickest players to 100 career home runs:

By Age By Games
1. Mel Ott (22 years, 132 days) 1. Ryan Howard (325 games)
2. Tony Conigliaro (22 years, 197 days) 2. Ralph Kiner (385 games)
3. Eddie Mathews (22 years, 292 days) 3. Chuck Klein (390 games)
4. Alex Rodriguez (23 years, 16 days) 4. Bob Horner (390 games)
5. Johnny Bench (23 years, 161 days) 5. Mark McGwire (393 games)
6. Albert Pujols (23 years, 185 days) 6. Joe DiMaggio (395 games)
7. Hank Aaron (23 years, 191 days) 7. Eddie Mathews (397 games)
8. Ken Griffey Jr. (23 years, 206 days 8. Ryan Braun (400 games)
9. Frank Robinson (23 years, 230 days) 9. Giancarlo Stanton (400 games)

Judge won’t make the youngest players list, obviously. He didn’t play his first full big league season until age 25. He has a very real chance to hit 100 homers in fewer games than anyone except Ryan Howard though. Can he hit 17 homers in 30 games to break Howard’s record? Probably not, but the fact it’s not completely impossible is pretty insane.

Andrew asks: When can the Yanks put Didi and Jordan Montgomery on the 60-Day, to open up a couple of 40-man spots? I would think the Yanks would want to put them on there as soon as they can.

I’m not sure about the exact date and it seems to move around each year. I think it might be the mandatory reporting date per the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the day everyone has to be in camp. It’s sometime in late-February. (Teams set their individual reporting dates well in advance of the mandatory reporting date.) I know the disabled list day is early in Spring Training, before Cactus League and Grapefruit League games begin.

Two things to keep in mind about the 60-day DL. One, teams can only use it when they need a 40-man roster spot. Someone has to be added to the 40-man roster right away whenever the Yankees put Didi Gregorius or Jordan Montgomery on the 60-day DL. And two, the 60-day DL isn’t retroactive in Spring Training. Put a player on the 60-day DL at any point in the spring and he has to miss the first 60 days of the regular season. That’s something that has to be considered. If the Yankees think Gregorius could return in May, they might not 60-day DL him.

Update: Yankees sign Adam Ottavino to three-year deal

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(Matthew Stockman/Getty)

January 24th: The Yankees announced the Ottavino signing this afternoon, so it is official. No other move is required because the Sonny Gray trade cleared a 40-man roster spot earlier this week. The press release says Ottavino will indeed wear No. 0. Pretty cool. He’ll be the first player in franchise history to wear No. 0, the last unretired single digit.

January 17th: Two weeks after re-signing Zach Britton, the Yankees have their second reliever addition. According to multiple reports the Yankees have agreed to a three-year contract worth $27M with free agent righty Adam Ottavino. That is exactly what the Rockies, Ottavino’s former team, gave Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw last year. The Yankees have not yet confirmed the deal.

“When he called me two nights ago and told me, he had the sound of happiness in his voice I haven’t heard in a very long time. He could not possibly be happier,” said Ottavino’s father to Zach Braziller. “I’m happy whenever anybody gets what they want, and he really got what he wanted. Playing for the Yankees was worth an awful lot to him. At the end, playing for the Yankees was very important to him.”

These days top notch relievers are fetching more than $10M annually — seven relievers will make eight figures this coming season, not including the still unsigned Craig Kimbrel — and it seems the Yankees may’ve traded the third guaranteed year for a lower average annual salary. Andrew Miller and David Robertson, who are roughly the same age as Ottavino, received two-year guarantees this winter.

Ottavino, 33, is a native New Yorker who was born in Manhattan and grew up in Brooklyn, which is pretty cool. Between he and Dellin Betances, the Yankees have two true homegrown players in their bullpen. Neat. Ottavino threw 77.2 innings with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 36.3% strikeouts last season. He’s really good and there are several reasons the Yankees were smart to sign him.

With Ottavino on board, the Yankees have accounted for six of their eight bullpen spots. The six spots:

  • Closer: Aroldis Chapman
  • Setup: Dellin Betances, Zach Britton
  • Middle: Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, Adam Ottavino

That is pretty stellar, at least on paper. Relievers are notoriously fickle, so we’ll have to see how things play out on the field. Right now, the Yankees have quite a collection of bullpen talent. Figure the out-of-options Tommy Kahnle gets one of the final two bullpen spots, with the last one going to a traditional swingman/spot starter or being used as a revolving door spot.

Of course, Ottavino is not without risk. He is one year removed from a 5.06 ERA (5.16 FIP) with 16.1% walks in 53.1 innings. Even last season he had an 11.7% walk rate. Also, Ottavino has Tommy John surgery in the not-too-distant past (May 2015) and you have to go all the way back to 2013 for the last time he was as good as he was last year. The Yankees are betting 2018 Ottavino is the real Ottavino.

My quick math puts the 2019 luxury tax payroll at $228.5M, assuming Luis Severino wins his arbitration hearing. (It’ll be $227.65M if he loses.) That is over the $226M second luxury tax tier and subjects the Yankees to a 32% surtax. Trading Sonny Gray and his $7.5M salary will get the Yankees back under the $226M threshold and I’d bet the farm on that happening. Trade Gray and find a cheaper swingman.

Given their current payroll situation, signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado would undoubtedly push the Yankees over the $246M third luxury tax threshold, which kicks in another surtax and pushes their 2020 first round draft pick back ten spots. I mean, they’ve done this much, right? Might as well keep going. I won’t hold my breath. Either way, adding Ottavino to the bullpen is a big addition. Nicely done.