The second to last homestand of the season ends with this series, a three-gamer against the Rays. Neither team is whether they expected to be at the start of the year. The Yankees have won only five of 13 games against the Tampa this year, including only one win in six head-to-head meetings at Yankee Stadium.
What Have They Done Lately?
The Rays were off yesterday and they took two of three from the Orioles at home over the weekend. They dropped eight of eleven games before that. Tampa is 69-75 with a +8 run differential on the season, leaving them comfortably in fourth place in the AL East.
With an average of 3.85 runs per game and a team 99 wRC+, manager Joe Maddon’s squad is essentially league average offensively. Actually about half-a-run per game below that when it comes to runs actually crossing the plate. Sequencing matters. OF Desmond Jennings (104 wRC+) is done for the season with a knee injury. Otherwise the Rays are healthy.
As always, Maddon’s lineup is built around 3B Evan Longoria (105 wRC+), who is having a very down year by his standards. UTIL Ben Zobrist (120 wRC+) is a perpetual pain in the behind and OF Matt Joyce (115 wRC+) is having a nice year as well. OF Wil Myers (86 wRC+) came off the disabled list not too long ago and he just destroys the Yankees. They can’t seem to get him out. 1B James Loney (106 wRC+) has been unable to repeat last year’s success and OF David DeJesus (133 wRC+) is having a nice year around a broken hand.
SS Yunel Escobar (84 wRC+) plays everyday while C Ryan Hanigan (95 wRC+) and ex-Yankee C Jose Molina (24 wRC+) split catching duties. OF Kevin Kiermaier (125 wRC+) has cooled off following his ridiculously hot start. He is playing center field regularly now that Jennings is hurt. The always annoying UTIL Sean Rodriguez (100 wRC+) is on the bench, as are IF Logan Forsythe (82 wRC+) and OF Brandon Guyer (109 wRC+). C Curt Casali is the third catcher now that rosters have expanded.
Tuesday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda (vs. TB) vs. RHP Chris Archer (vs. NYY)
Back-to-back rough outings (14 runs in ten innings) have the 25-year-old Archer sitting on a 3.60 ERA (3.26 FIP) in 28 starts and 167.1 innings so far this year. His strikeout (8.18 K/9 and 21.1 K%), homer (0.48 HR/9 and 6.2 HR/FB%), and ground ball (46.7%) rates are all very good, though his walk rate (3.39 BB/9 and 8.8 BB%) has jumped quite a bit from last year. It’s still not bad though. Righties (.310 wOBA) have actually fared better than lefties (.295 wOBA) against him so far this year, which is odd because Archer is a mid-90s fastball/mid-80s slider guy. He throws only a handful of mid-80s changeups per start and those guys tend to have platoon splits, not reverse platoon splits. Archer has faced the Yankees twice this year, holding them to one run in 6.2 innings back in April and two runs in seven innings June. He never seems to not pitch well against New York.
Wednesday: LHP Chris Capuano (vs. TB) vs. RHP Jake Odorizzi (vs. NYY)
Odorizzi, 24, has quietly had a solid rookie season for the Rays, posting a 3.84 ERA (3.49 FIP) in 28 starts and 154.2 innings. His strikeout rate is excellent (9.66 K/9 and 25.4 K%) and his walk rate is good (3.03 BB/9 and 8.0 BB%), but he doesn’t get ground balls at all (30.4%). He has somehow managed to keep the ball in the park reasonably well despite that lack of grounder (0.99 HR/9 and 8.3 HR/FB%). Like Archer, he has a reverse split (righties have a .312 wOBA, lefties .288). Odorizzi uses a four-seamer right around 90 mph to set up his mid-80s slider, which is his top secondary pitch. He’ll throw a handful of mid-80s changeups and big-breaking upper-60s curveballs per start. The Yankees scored three runs in four innings when they saw Odorizzi in May, then they scored another three runs in 5.2 innings in July.
Thursday: RHP Michael Pineda (vs. TB) vs. RHP Alex Cobb (vs. NYY)
With David Price gone and Archer still finding his way, the 26-year-old Cobb has taken over as the ace of Maddon’s staff. He missed time with an oblique injury earlier this season but otherwise has a 2.83 ERA (3.07 FIP) in 23 starts and 140 innings. Across the board he has posted very strong peripherals: 8.61 K/9 (23.3 K%), 2.57 BB/9 (6.9 BB%), 0.58 HR/9 (8.6 HR/FB%), and 56.4% grounders. Thanks to his knockout mid-80s changeup, lefties (.259 wOBA) have actually had less success against Cobb than righties (.296 wOBA). His two and four-seamers sit in the low-90s and he’ll also throw a bunch of low-80s curveballs. The Yankees scored no runs in 7.1 innings against Cobb last month, the only time they faced him in 2014.
The Rays continue to say they are using a closer by committee, but LHP Jake McGee (1.29 FIP) has more or less taken over the ninth inning. Maddon will use him in the eighth inning on some occasions depends on the matchups. RHP Joel Peralta (3.68 FIP) and RHP Brad Boxberger (2.50 FIP) will also see late-inning work. RHP Grant Balfour (4.01 FIP) still gets some high-leverage chances despite his poor year.
The rest of Maddon’s bullpen includes RHP Kirby Yates (3.67 FIP), RHP Brandon Gomes (4.87 FIP), and LHP Cesar Ramos (4.30 FIP). LHP Jeff Beliveau and RHP Steve Geltz are the extra September call-up arms. Tampa Bay was off yesterday, so their bullpen is relatively rested. The same goes for the Yankees. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for recent relieve usage then check out The Process Report for everything you could possibly want to know about the Rays.
Via Jayson Stark: MLB and the MLBPA are working on an agreement that would “clarify” the new home plate collision rules, specifically for plays like this. An official announcement is expected soon. Stark says the clarification “would remind umpires that while the intent of the rule was to protect catchers from violent collisions at the plate, the wording was not intended to be interpreted so strictly that it would allow runners to be called safe on a technicality if the throw had beaten them to the plate by a substantial margin.”
As Dave Brown put it the other day, home plate has become the twilight zone. No one really seems to know what’s happening on plays at the plate anymore and they’re often followed with reviews and arguments and confusion. Hopefully whatever MLB and MLBPA are working on will clear up some things, but I still expect there to be some bumps in the road. I think the spirit of the rule is great — avoid turning catchers’ brains into mush, basically — but the new rule is clearly a work in progress. There has definitely been a league-wide learning curve in year one. · (22) ·
The Yankees were off yesterday for the final time this season. Twenty-one games in the next 20 days next up — they play a doubleheader against the Orioles in Baltimore on Friday — then we’ll either be celebrating the team’s miraculous return to the postseason or preparing for an offseason that should be mighty interesting. Here are some random thoughts heading into tonight’s series opener against the Rays.
1. First things first, the Yankees haven’t announced a starter for the second game of Friday’s doubleheader but that’s not really a big deal because of the expanded rosters. David Phelps should be activated off the disabled list before then, so the team will be able to stitch the game together with two or three innings apiece from guys like Phelps, David Huff, Esmil Rogers, Bryan Mitchell, and Chase Whitley. I guess it all depends on who is needed in relief these next three games. Either way, cobbling together enough pitching for that doubleheader won’t be a problem. September call-ups make it a piece of cake.
2. With free agency becoming diluted, one of the few notable free agent outfield bats available this winter will be ex-Yankee Melky Cabrera. He had a big season with the Blue Jays, hitting .301/.351/.458 (124 wRC+) with 35 doubles and 16 homers before breaking a finger sliding into a base over the weekend, ending his season. Obviously there is a lot of skepticism surrounded Melky gives his past PED issues, but he is only 30 years old and he’s a true switch-hitter who hits both lefties (116 wRC+) and righties (127 wRC+). Plus he never strikes out (10.8%), which is a highly desirable trait in this strikeout heavy age. His defense isn’t anything special but he does have a strong arm for right field. Buster Olney (subs. req’d) suggested Melky could wind up with Shane Victorino’s contract (three years, $39M) while a scout told Jeff Blair teams are willing to offer Jhonny Peralta’s contract (four years, $52M). My gut says Cabrera will wind up with the bigger contract of those two, given the market. Does Melky make sense for the Yankees at that price? The team already has three outfielders under contract at a combined $50M or so per year the next two years. Would they really add a fourth eight-figure outfielder? The Yankees can use someone like Melky in the lineup, but I’m not sure he fits unless they trade Brett Gardner.
3. Now, that said, I think Carlos Beltran has to be the everyday DH next season. Or at least the most of the time DH, four or five games a week. There are two reasons for this. One, the guy is barely mobile at this point of his career and he’s a Raul Ibanez-esque liability in right field. My tolerance for bad defensive corner outfielders is surprisingly high, but not that high. Beltran’s been scary bad in right this year. Two, his health. I know Beltran is having the bone spur taken out of his elbow this winter, but he also has bad knees and at his age, the likelihood of breaking down physically is pretty high. Giving him more time at DH should reduce his injury risk, in theory. So, in this scenario the Yankees would have room for someone like Melky in right field, but again, are they willing to spent that much money on another outfielder? If the Yankees are going to hand out another $10M+ per year contract to a position player, the infield seems like the place to do it.
4. Stephen Drew has not hit a lick with the Yankees (32 wRC+) but I contend the trade was still worth it because now the team knows he is definitely not the guy to sign to play shortstop next season. The fact that he isn’t even playing regularly at this point seems like they are admitting that is the case. Besides, it’s not like the Yankees gave up anything of value to get him in the first place. They took a low-cost flier and it didn’t work out, that’s life. I don’t believe Drew is really as bad as he’s shown this year but I also don’t think the “he didn’t have a proper Spring Training” excuse is all that valid anymore either. He’s at 239 plate appearances and shown no signs of snapping out of it. (It’s worth noting Kendrys Morales is still struggling to find his way after signing late as well.) The upcoming free agent market is shockingly deep with shortstops, namely Drew, J.J. Hardy, Jed Lowrie, Hanley Ramirez, and Asdrubal Cabrera. I assume the Yankees will sign one of those guys — they all have their pluses and minuses, I don’t see an obvious one to target right now — and eliminating Drew from the pack makes life that much easier. These few weeks after the trade were an audition and Drew flunked.
5. What exactly is Brendan Ryan‘s role on the Yankees going forward? I know they re-signed him (two years plus a player option!) as a backup plan for Derek Jeter should his ankle give him more trouble this year, but I don’t buy for a second that they would install him as the starting shortstop next year. I’d much rather see the Yankees re-sign Drew before going with Ryan as the starter. They’d have to whiff on every one of the free agent shortstop for Ryan to get a chance to play everyday, and I don’t see that happening. Ryan’s contract isn’t exactly an albatross ($2M in 2015) but he has no trade value. He has played in seven of the team’s last 33 games (five starts) and really doesn’t seem to have a defined role at this point. I wonder if the Yankees would look for a better backup infield infielder, then outright Ryan off the 40-man roster and down to Triple-A Scranton. If he gets claimed off waivers, so be it. He won’t refuse the outright assignment if he clears waivers because then he would forfeit the remainder of his contract, and I have a hard time believing that will happen. It’s a weird situation. No hit, all glove backup infielders have zero value if they’re playing as infrequently as Ryan does.
6. As far as second base goes, I think my perfect world scenario has Martin Prado at second and Alex Rodriguez at third base to open next season. A-Rod is coming back and I’m sure the Yankees will stick him out there at the hot corner early on. Then, when Alex inevitably gets injured, the Yankees slide Prado to third base and play Rob Refsnyder at second. A-Rod hasn’t played a full healthy season since 2007 and I have no reason to think 2015 will be the year he does it. Not at age 39 and after two hip surgeries and nearly two full years away from the game. I like Prado the most at second base, he fits there way better than in right field or at third base in my opinion, but I also want the Yankees to give Refsnyder a chance next year. I mean, at some point they have to try one of their young position players, and he’s the obvious candidate knocking on the door. Prado’s versatility gives the team flexibility and I’m sure Rodriguez’s brittle body will create the opportunity.
Today is the final scheduled off-day of the season for the Yankees. They’ll close out the 2014 regular season with 21 games in 20 days — they have a doubleheader against the Orioles this Friday — before heading into what will surely be one of the most interesting offseasons in recent franchise history. (I think I said that last year too.) Unless they make a miraculous comeback these next three weeks, picking up the pieces following back-to-back postseason-less years will be a daunting task.
Here is your open thread for the off-night. The Mets are playing, MLB Network is airing a regional game, and the Monday Night Football game is the Giants at the Lions. Good night for the Yankees to be off, I’d say. Talk about any of those games or anything else right here.
The Yankees have outrighted outfielder Zoilo Almonte to Triple-A Scranton, according to the official league transactions. That means he went unclaimed on waivers. Almonte can not refuse the assignment since this is his first outright, but I believe he is due to become a minor league free agent in a few weeks anyway. I would expect him to sign elsewhere since it’s pretty obvious he won’t get much of an opportunity in New York.
Almonte, 25, hit .261/.311/.436 (103 wRC+) with 18 homers in 105 Triple-A games this season. He’s had several unsuccessful (39 wRC+) big league cameos over the last two seasons. Almonte is a switch-hitter in name only — he absolutely can not hit left-handers — but he has some pop against righties and can play good defense in the two corners. I thought he could be a useful platoon/fourth outfielder, but the fact that every other team could have had him for free off waivers but passed is telling. · (19) ·
As expected, David Phelps faced hitters in a simulated game yesterday for the first time since going down with elbow inflammation last month. He threw 31 pitches and felt fine. “I feel like I made some good pitches. I was just nice to be out there with some adrenaline flowing. It feels good enough to get guys out right now,” he said to Brian Heyman.
The Yankees will see how Phelps feels in the coming days before deciding on the next step, and it’s entirely possible he will be activated off the disabled list before throwing another simulated game. The team already announced he will return as a reliever — at this point of the season I’m not sure there’s enough time to get him all the way stretched out to start anyway — and I’m sure he’ll jump right into some kind of quasi-high-leverage role similar to what Adam Warren is doing right now. · (14) ·
MLB released the 2015 regular season schedule this afternoon, and the Yankees will open next season at home against the Blue Jays on Monday, April 6th. The season begins with the ESPN Sunday Night game on April 5th — the league says details about that game are forthcoming — then all 30 teams play on Monday. There are no more staggered starts like this season, when the Yankees and Astros opened on a Tuesday and were literally the last teams to play their first game of 2014.
The team’s full schedule can be seen right here. After the season-opening three-game series with Toronto — the two teams are off on Tuesday, the annual “just in case it rains on Opening Day” off-day — the Yankees will play three games against the Red Sox before heading out on a ten-game road trip through Baltimore, Tampa, and Detroit. As always, April is heavy with intra-division play against AL East rivals. Here are some more schedule details:
- Subway Series: Rather than the usual four-game home-and-home series, the Subway Series will be split up next season. The Yankees and Mets will play three games at Yankee Stadium from April 24-26 (Friday to Sunday), then another three games at Citi Field from September 18-20 (also Friday to Sunday).
- 2009 World Series Rematch: The Yankees will play three games against the Phillies in Yankee Stadium from June 22-24. That’s Monday through Wednesday. The two teams will not play in Philadelphia next summer.
- Interleague Play: The NL East is up for interleague play next year, hence the six games against the Mets. In addition to the Mets and Phillies series, the Yankees will travel to Washington (May 19-20) and Atlanta (August 28-30), and play a four-game home-and-home series with the Marlins (June 15-18). Giancarlo Stanton is coming to the Bronx, people. The Nationals will also be at Yankee Stadium from June 9-10.
- West Coast: The Yankees only have two West Coast trips next year. They go to Oakland (May 28-31) and Seattle (June 1-3), then Houston (June 25-28) and Anaheim (June 29-July 1). Houston isn’t on the West Coast, but it’s a stop on the way. The Yankees are done with the West Coast before the All-Star break.
- All-Star Game: The All-Star Game will be played on Tuesday, July 14th next year. The game is at The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Homerun Derby will be Monday the 13th and the Futures Game will be Sunday the 12th.
- End of the Season: As usual, the Yankees will close the season out with a bunch of games against AL East clubs. They’ll play four games at home against the Red Sox (Sept. 28-Oct. 1) and then three on the road in Baltimore (Oct. 2-4) to close out the year. Twenty-six of their final 33 games will be played within the division.
Joel Sherman says MLB wanted to avoided opening the season in March, which is why the first games will be played on April 5th and 6th. That means the regular season ends in early-October, like the good ol’ days. That last series against the Orioles could wind up being pretty important.
Just about all summer, Joe Girardi and the Yankees have enjoyed arguably the most dominant setup man/closer tandem in baseball in Dellin Betances and David Robertson. The team has scaled back on Betances’ workload in recent weeks but for the most of the season he was a multi-inning monster who would regularly bridge the gap from starter to closer all by himself. Robertson has been dynamite in his first season as closer, making the transition to the post-Mariano Rivera era relatively painless.
The Yankees had a similarly dominant late-game duo the last few years thanks to the Robertson and Rivera, though Robertson has always been a true one-inning reliever, not a four or five or six out guy. The multi-inning reliever is a dying breed, especially when it comes to late-inning guys. The last time the Yankees had a duo like Betances and Robertson, meaning an overwhelming multi-inning setup man and a shutdown closer, was way back to 1996, when Rivera was setting up John Wetteland.
There are more than a few similarities between the 1996 duo and the 2014 duo. Betances, like Rivera, was scuffling along for much of his early-20s, trying to make it work as a starting pitcher before moving into the bullpen full-time. They both opened the season in an undefined middle relief role before pitching their way into some more responsibility — Rivera threw 15 straight hitless innings at one point from mid-April through early-May in 1996, which is a great way to earn the manager’s trust — and eventually a no-doubt high-leverage role. Robertson has a knack for making things interesting but gets the job done more often than not, similar to Wetteland.
Statistically, there isn’t much of a comparison. Betances and Robertson have been quite a bit more effective this year than Rivera and Wetteland in 1996, at least on a rate basis. Wetteland and (mostly) Rivera did throw a ton of innings back in the day, a workload Betances and Robertson won’t sniff this year:
|2014 Betances & Robertson||137.1||0.84||1.97||1.84||39.4%||7.6%||5.18|
|1996 Rivera & Wetteland||171.1||1.06||2.36||2.57||28.8%||8.0%||3.43|
Rivera and Wetteland also excelled in the postseason in 1996, combining to allow only four runs in 26.2 innings (1.35 ERA) during the team’s march to the World Series title. Wetteland saved four games in five days en route to being named World Series MVP. Hopefully Betances and Robertson get a chance to strut their stuff in the postseason next month, but eh. Things aren’t looking too hot right now.
The similarities don’t stop there either. Betances (26) and Robertson (29) are the same age right now that Rivera and Wetteland were back in 1996, respectively. That’s sorta freaky. Robertson is also due to become a free agent this offseason just like Wetteland became a free agent following the 1996 season. The Yankees let him walk and installed Rivera as their closer. The team is going to face a similar decision this winter — do they let Robertson go and hand the ninth inning reigns over to Dellin?
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with re-signing Robertson and keeping one of the game’s most dominant late-game bullpen pairs together for another few seasons. In fact I would prefer it. I don’t mean that as a slight on Betances either. I think he’d be able to close no problem just like I thought Robertson would have no trouble closing this year, but there is no such thing as having too many great relievers. The game has changed a lot in the last two decades. Deep bullpens are imperative these days because no one scores runs anymore and every game is close.
Eighteen years ago, the Yankees had an advantage over every team they played thanks to Rivera and Wetteland. Rivera’s ability to go multiple innings — he went two full innings in 35 of 61 appearances and three full innings eight times — combined with Wetteland’s ninth inning reliability effective made it a six-inning game for New York. Girardi has had the same luxury this year thanks to Betances and Robertson. Both guys are having phenomenal seasons and they’ve been essential in keeping the Yankees in the race this summer.
Record Last Week: 3-3 (20 RS, 19 RA)
Season Record: 73-68 (555 RS, 581 RA, 67-74 pythag. record) 9.5 GB in ALE, 4.5 GB of WC
Opponents This Week: Mon. OFF, vs. Rays (three games, Tues. to Thurs.), @ Orioles (four games, Fri. to Sun.)
Top stories from last week:
- The Yankees were off on Monday, then the Red Sox came to the Bronx for a three-game series. Shane Greene got pounded in the series opening loss. Hiroki Kuroda helped the Yankees to a win on Wednesday, then a walk-off homer by Chase Headley gave them the win in the finale.
- The Royals came to town for a three-game weekend set next. James Shields shut the Yankees down in the opener, but New York rebounded to take the middle game on Saturday. They were unable to score in yesterday’s loss.
- Injury Updates: Masahiro Tanaka (elbow) threw in the bullpen for the first time since being shut down with fatigue and reported no problems. Ivan Nova (elbow) has started a throwing program as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. David Phelps (elbow) has thrown two bullpen sessions and could be close to returning. Martin Prado (hamstring) missed a few games with a mild strain but has since returned to the lineup. Brett Gardner (abdomen) is day-to-day with some kind of irritation. Francisco Cervelli (head) is day-to-day with migraines.
- Among the players called up when rosters expanded on September 1st were Chris Young, Preston Claiborne, Chase Whitley, Chaz Roe, John Ryan Murphy, Rich Hill, Bryan Mitchell, and Antoan Richardson. Austin Romine was called up later in the week following Cervelli’s migraines. Matt Daley was released and Zoilo Almonte was designated for assignment to clear 40-man roster space.
- The Yankees intend to offer Brian Cashman a new contract after the season. Assistant GM Billy Eppler is expected to be a candidate for the now vacant Diamondbacks GM job.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
For whatever reason the folks at MLBAM decided to chop this afternoon’s Derek Jeter retirement ceremony into eight (!) different videos, and I’m not embedding all of them here. That’s too many. Jeter’s predictably perfect speech is above (full text) and you can see all the ceremony videos right here. (Andy Pettitte was not in town because of a prior family engagement.) The Yankees pulled out all the stops, even bringing in astronauts and Michael Jordan. Astronauts! I didn’t hear it myself, but apparently one of the broadcast microphones picked up Jordan saying “I heard you’re getting married?” to Jeter, so that’s a thing. Leave it to Jeter to keep an engagement secret. Anyway, the ceremony was way cool. What a great afternoon.
Here is your open thread for the rest of the night. The ESPN Sunday Night Game is a good one, the Giants at the Tigers (Hudson vs. Lobstein). The late NFL game is the Colts and Broncos. Hooray football. Talk about those games, the Jeter ceremony, this afternoon’s loss, or anything else right here.