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What does Nick Johnson mean for the left field situation?

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Three Yankees who made significant contributions to the 2009 championship filed for free agency this winter: Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Andy Pettitte. By December 18, they’ve essentially replaced all three. Andy Pettitte re-signed last week to fill his own spot. The Yankees traded for Curtis Granderson to replace Damon, and the soon-to-be-announced signing of Nick Johnson fills Matsui’s vacated DH spot. The replacements are not exact facsimiles of their 2009 counterparts, but then again, no one is.

One question many of us had upon hearing of the Yanks interest in Johnson: what does it mean for left field? Melky Cabrera isn’t the worst choice. He was, after all, the starting center fielder on the 2009 team. The problems arise when Jorge Posada needs a day off. That means both Melky and Francisco Cervelli in the lineup. In a normal backup catcher situation that’s not a huge deal, but because we can’t expect Posada to catch more than 120 games (and even that’s very optimistic), it means a lot of both in the lineup.

Had the Yankees re-signed Damon, they could have mitigated the situation for some games. Instead of resting Posada a full day, sometimes he could have played DH, with Damon playing left field. Say Posada catches 110 games this season. Under the current system, the Yankees will have both Melky and Cervelli in the lineup for 52 games, or 32 percent of the season. But, if Posada can DH for 30 more games, for a total of 140, then the Yankees would only have both Melky and Cervelli in the lineup for 22 games. That sounds a lot better.

With Johnson in the fold, that’s not possible. It has made me, and many others, wonder if the Yankees now plan to sign or trade for a full-time left fielder. Though the chances appear remote, the Yankees could still sign Damon, though they’d have to play him in left basically every day. Do they still see him as a full-time left fielder? If not, it creates a logjam at DH, though those usually find a way to become unjammed. In fact, Damon might be the only possibility for another offensive addition. The left field trade market appears bleak, and there aren’t many, if any, free agent outfielders who interest the Yanks.

To not sign another left fielder, however, leaves the Yankees vulnerable. Nick Johnson comes with a long medical history, and is no guarantee to stay healthy the entire season. If something happens to him in 2010, the Yanks would be in a very tough spot. Without any further additions, they’d probably move Nick Swisher to DH and have an outfield of Cabrera, Granderson, and Brett Gardner. Defensively that’s stellar, but offensively it would be among the lightest hitting trios in the league. Further, imagine the lineup when Jorge needs a full day off. It’s not a scenario anyone wants to see.

Many Yanks fans, myself included, dream of Matt Holliday in this scenario. From a pure performance perspective, he represents an ideal fit. Not only does he play left field full time, but he provides a middle of the order bat. Just imagine the Yankees batting order:

1. Derek Jeter
2. Nick Johnson
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Matt Holliday
6. Jorge Posada
7. Curtis Granderson
8. Nick Swisher
9. Robinson Cano

The scenario, as of right now, remains unlikely. Without contracts for any of the arbitration-eligible and reserve clause players, the team payroll stands at about $188 million. Add in another $6 to $7 million for Melky, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre, plus the money to fill out the rest of the roster, and the number gets very close to $200 million. Will the Yankees go far above that for a left fielder? It doesn’t sound like it.

Holliday will not come cheap. As he does for all of his clients, Scott Boras seeks the most possible money for Holliday. The Cardinals reportedly have on the table a five-year offer for about $15 million per year. Even if the Yankees matched that and Holliday preferred New York, that would boost payroll to over $210 million, and close to $215 million. Imagine, then, if they wanted to add another starter. They could easily start the season with a payroll over $220 million. From everything the Yankees have said this off-season, that’s not part of the plan.

As we’ve mentioned many times before, adding Holliday doesn’t just affect this year’s payroll, but the payroll for the next five years. The Yankees might not want to add that kind of commitment when they already have $140 million committed to the 2011 team, and that’s before re-signing Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. Cashman has also called next year’s free agency class “incredibly more impressive than this one,” so the Yanks might choose to wait this one out, add one more pitcher and call it an off-season. They can then make a move on perhaps a better free agent next off-season.

There’s a chance, as always, that the Yankees see the sense in adding Holliday at this point and decide to increase payroll for him. At yesterday’s Granderson press conference, Hal Steinbrenner seemed open to the idea, but reluctant. “I’m not saying yay (sic) or nay, but I’m saying we’re operating at this number and that’s that.” The chance is open, but given the immense commitment it would require, I doubt the Yankees move in that direction.

If they’re done shopping for an outfielder, the 2010 Yankees enter the season with a big risk. If healthy Nick Johnson is a great addition, but any injury would leave the Yankees offense in a tough spot. Even if they add another good starting pitcher, that’s a rough bottom of the order. I’d like to see them add a higher caliber left fielder, but given the roster and payroll constraints, I don’t expect it.

Report: Yanks wrapping up deal with Johnson

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Update (7:15pm): Ken Davidoff says the two sides are wrapping up a one year, $5.5M deal, pending a physical. Holy bargain Batman.

5:34pm: Via GAK3, the Yanks and Nick Johnson are getting close to an agreement on a one year deal, and it could be announced as soon as tomorrow morning. Johnson will get a chance to have a huge year by hitting a bunch of cheap homers to right with a ton of men on in front of him, putting him in position to go back onto the market next season and command some serious bucks.

On-base percentage is the single most important metric in baseball, and Johnson excels at it (.426 last year, .402 career). We’ve already written extensively about Nicky J. here and here, so you know we’re in favor of bringing him aboard.

Will the Yankees gamble on Nick Johnson’s health?

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This year’s free agent market features a number of players who carry an injury risk. Some of them missed part or all of 2009, while others come with a medical red flag. These players will all get deals, though, as long as their demands aren’t outrageous. Teams love one-year deals. It means minimal risk for them. We’ve already seen the Rangers gamble on Rich Harden. Could the Yankees be the next?

The New York Post reports that the Yankees “are talking” with Nick Johnson about a one-year deal. It is not known how serious these talks have become, but George King has a quote from Johnson’s agent, Rex Gray, who says that “things are moving forward.” Even that quote, though, doesn’t explicitly refer to the Yankees and Johnson. So there’s reason to doubt the two sides are anywhere close to an agreement. But, if true, it presents an interesting option to replace Hideki Matsui at DH.

Johnson falls in the second category of injury risk free agents, the kind that carries a medical red flag. In his eight-year major league career, Jonson has broken 600 plate appearances just once, and has had more than 500 plate appearances just three times. One of those three was last season, a good sign, but Johnson’s injury history is long enough to give any team pause. From a Hardball Times article about Johnson:

In 2003, he had a fracture in his right hand, and missed more than two months of the season as a result. He struggled in 2004 after having a lingering back injury, as well as a fractured cheekbone from a batted ball. He never did on track during the 2004 season, in all likelihood a result of his back injury.

After that Johnson stepped to the plate 547 times in 2005 and then 628 in 2007. He ended the latter season on the DL, however, with a broken femur, the result of a collision with teammate Austin Kearns. That kept him out the entire 2007 season. He returned in 2008, starting slow before suffering a torn ligament on the ulnar side of his right wrist. Even during his mostly successful 2009 season he missed half a month with a strained hamstring.

When healthy, Johnson produces immense value. In only two seasons has his on base percentage dipped below .400 — 2002, his first full season, and 2004, the season he struggled with back problems. He walks more than he strikes out, though he doesn’t strike out a whole lot. His contact rate is right around Hideki Matsui’s. Even better, he had a reverse platoon split in 2009, hitting .281/.420/.389 against righties, but .316/.440/.444 against lefties. Kind of like…Hideki Matsui.

At this point in his career, Johnson’s weakness is his power. Once an asset, his ISO fell to .114 this season after residing around or above .200 in his previous healthy seasons. The wrist injury probably has something to do with that. He might recover some power in 2010, he might not. But even if he doesn’t, he’s still a valuable offensive asset. That on-base percentage and contact rate would play well in the two-spot behind Derek Jeter.

Signing Johnson as the team’s DH would probably close the door to Johnny Damon. If, as Joel Sherman has repeated for the past two weeks, the Yankees see Damon as a 70-game left fielder and 70-game DH, there wouldn’t be room for him on the roster. After a day filled with reports that Damon won’t return to the Yankees for less than the $13 million he earned in 2009, on a multiyear contract, the Yankees could be ready to move on. Or maybe the Yankees are using this to get Damon to the table.

While Johnson presents a medical risk, Damon carries a relatively clean injury history. He hit the DL for the first and only time in his career last July, and has 600 or more plate appearances in each of the past 12 seasons. In the two seasons before that he had over 500 plate appearances. He plays through minor injuries, and while those might catch up to him as he ages, he’s still a much better bet to bat 600 times in 2010.

Injury is the only risk Johnson carriers, but it’s clearly a significant one. If they sign him as DH and go with Melky Cabrera (or Brett Gardner) as the left fielder, they leave themselves vulnerable if Johnson lands on the disabled list. I’d like a Johnson signing much more if they were to land a bigger bat for left field. Say, Matt Holliday. Without him, a Johnson injury would devastate the lineup, leaving an outfield of Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, and Gardner, with Nick Swisher at DH.

Given the choice, though, between a multiyear contract for Damon at $13 per annum and Johnson on a one-year deal, I’ll take Johnson. If healthy he replaces Damon’s production (they had near-identical wOBAs in 2009), and any recovery of power would make that even better. Time at DH could also mitigate the injury risk. I’d rather have Damon because of his familiarity, flexibility, and durability, but if his demands don’t come down, Nick Johnson presents a quality alternative.

Photo credit: David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Replacing Matsui with a familiar face

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Nick JohnsonWith the returns of Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui still up in the air, Ken Rosenthal mentioned yesterday that the Yanks have gotten in touch with Nick Johnson about a return to New York. Johnson surely can’t handle the outfield, which means that the Yanks are thinking about him as a fallback option at DH.  Keith Law recently ranked him as the 13th best free agent, right behind another RAB fave in Mike Cameron.

The Yankees are certainly familiar with Johnson, having drafted him in the third round way back in 1996. Baseball America ranked Nick among the top 18 prospects in baseball every year from 1999 to 2002, and he was long considered the heir apparent to Tino Martinez. It’s easy to forget that Larry Bowa’s nephew put up a .284-.422-.472 batting line for the Yanks as a 24-year-old in 2003 (406 plate appearanes), only to be banished to Montreal the following offseason as part of the Javy Vazquez trade.

Johnson’s calling card is the military style plate discipline that’s allowed him to post a .414 OBP (!!!) with more walks (432) than strikeouts (410) over his last 2,597 plate appearances. Only Jayson Werth (4.50) and Kevin Youkilis (4.42) saw more pitches per plate appearance in 2009 than Johnson (4.38), so even when he makes an out, he’ll go down with a fight.

Of course, the real name of the game with Nick Johnson is injuries. He’s been on the disabled list eight times in his career, spending a total of 565 days on the shelf. That a little more than three full seasons. The biggest culprit was the broken femur that required three surgeries and cost Johnson the entire 2007 season, though an outfield collision with Austin Kearns is as fluky as it gets. More recently, Johnson missed most of the 2008 season with a wrist injury he suffered on a swing. The injury required surgery, which will usually sap a hitter’s power for about a year.

Predictably, Johnson’s power output dropped off a cliff after surgery, as he picked up just 32 extra base hits (24 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homers) in 574 plate appearances last season. He slugged just .405 with a .114 IsoP, which is Scott Podsednik territory. Thankfully, there’s statistical evidence that suggests Johnson’s power might be on the way back. Let’s tabulate:

GB% FB% LD% HR/FB
2009 22.2 43.4 34.4 6.2%
Career 22.4 43.6 34.0 13.0%

You see that? Johnson hit grounders, fly balls, and liners last year at the same rate he has his entire career, yet it resulted in fewer homers.  Roughly 10% of all the fly balls hit in the big leagues last year turned into homers, yet Johnson was well below that. As you can see from his hit charts, Nick definitely hit plenty of deep fly balls, so it’s not like he turned into a bloop singles hitter. It’s reasonable to expect Johnson to progress back to the mean next season, dumping a few more balls beyond the fence. Heck, Joe Mauer had a 6.5% HR/FB in 2008, and we all saw what that statistical correction was like. Obviously, you shouldn’t expect Johnson to go that nuts, but a return to his normal levels seems more than reasonable.

Unlike Juan Miranda, Johnson wouldn’t require a righthanded caddy for the Jon Lesters and David Prices of the world. He has a reverse split just like Matsui, hitting .316-.440-.444 against lefties last year (.281-.420-.389 vs. RHP), and .292-.424-.438 against southpaws in his career (.266-.394-.450 vs. RHP). If you’re a fan of Matsui’s clutchiness (and who isn’t), then I feel obligated to mention that Nicky J.’s a career .279-.457 (!!!)-.470 hitter with runners in scoring position. Johnson’s a very well rounded hitter that uses all fields, and even though he won’t match Matsui’s raw production, he’s still an above average offensive player.

The biggest problem in all of this is that Johnson is a really, really good defensive first baseman, so you know other teams are going to be hard after him as well. His UZR wasn’t good last year (-5.6), but it was the first time since 2003 he was in the negatives. As a DH, Johnson’s defensive abilities would be going to waste, yet he and his agent would (should) want to compensated for that ability. It’ll be tough to pry Johnson away from the starting first baseman jobs that will surely be offered to him this offseason, though DH’ing will probably keep him healthier.

You’re not going to find a bigger Nick Johnson fan than me, but that’s not the only reason why I’d love to see him in pinstripes. He fits the Yankee mold of patient hitters (imagine Johnson and Nick Swisher hitting back-to-back), and coming to the homer happy Yankee Stadium might beef up his offensive output more than a normal rebound from last year’s drought would. Rosenthal’s sources said Johnson is seeking a multi-year deal, which is certainly doable under the right circumstances. The bottom line is that the Yankees will need to replace Matsui’s production should he go elsewhere, and Johnson’s a pretty good fallback option.

Photo Credit: Wilfredo Lee, AP

Washington’s tempting target

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I’m sure this is something of a pipe dream for Yankee fans dismayed at the black hole around first base but Nick Johnson is feeling good and looking good early on in the Nationals’ camp. The Nationals have two first basemen — Johnson and Dmitri Young — and will, if both are healthy, look to trade one before camp breaks. The Yanks are definitely keeping an eye on their former farm hand and OBP machine.