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If not the Yankees, where could Jeter end up?

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With Derek Jeter a free agent after the season and speculation of his demands running amok, I decided to take a look at where Jeter might fit if for some reason he ended up leaving the Yankees (but it ain’t happening).  Without getting too specific into contract details, how many teams out there would pursue Jeter in the offseason?

Arizona Diamondbacks

Stephen Drew, like his brother J.D. is somewhat of an enigma, but is a solid player whom the D-Backs would only replace if he became too expensive in arbitration.  No matter what, Jeter would be much more expensive, so the Diamondbacks are out.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves spend when they need to (see Derek Lowe and the offer to Burnett).  After trading Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez they will have a question mark at SS for next year.  They very easily could pick up Gonzalez’ $2.5 million team option for next year but without a SS of the future on the horizon they could be a fit for Jeter.

Baltimore Orioles

I’ve heard for years that Peter Angelos loves to make a splash, but the water in Baltimore has been calm for years.  While Jeter would certainly be a splash, the odds of him staying in the AL East to go play for the Orioles are miniscule.  The Orioles might be interested but Jeter won’t be.

Boston Red Sox

People think the Sox would love to stick it to the Yankees and sign Jeter but it’s not Theo’s M.O.  He would have to pay a ton of money to get Jeter, and already has a shortstop that’s having a similar season in Marco Scutaro. Scutaro is signed thru 2011 with options for 2012.  By then the Sox expect international free agent signee Jose Iglesias to take over and wouldn’t seem to have a place for, or the desire to pay Jeter.

Chicago Cubs

With Starlin Castro around the Cubs are definitely not a fit.

Chicago White Sox

Kenny Williams loves his veterans but the other Sox don’t make much sense either.  Alexei Ramirez is young, cheap, and despite his flaws, a good player who has a 3.1 bWAR and 3.5 fWAR this season.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have been a surprise team this year despite a horrendous year from Orlando Cabrera.  He has a mutual option for next season so he may be back.  If the Reds are looking to upgrade and build on this year’s success, it’s possible they would take a shot at Jeter (and I don’t mean that as “taking a shot at Jeter”).

Cleveland Indians

After a breakout 2009 Asdrubal Cabrera has struggled with injuries and the bat this year, but isn’t going anywhere, and besides, Jeter would have no interest in joining the Indians at the end of his career.  He’s not at Jake Taylor status quite yet.

Colorado Rockies

Troy Tulowitzki.  Next.

Detroit Tigers

Jeter grew up in Michigan and Tigers owner Mike Ilitch loves to open up the wallet, which will be even easier with Magglio Ordonez coming off the books.  The Tigers have had a black hole at SS all season so would have no problems fitting Jeter right in.  While Detroit is certainly not New York, the Tigers, to me, would be the biggest threat if Jeter ever is truly on the market.  Things line up quite nicely for both Jeter and the Tigers.

Florida Marlins

Even if they didn’t have Hanley they would never pony up the money.

Houston Astros

Shades of Pettitte and Clemens heading off to Houston?  With Tommy Manzella and his .523 OPS holding down the fort at SS, the Astros certainly have a need, but there would be no reason for Jeter to consider heading to such a poor franchise.

Kansas City Royals

Maybe if Jeter was a first baseman with pop and no on-base skills the Royals might be interested.  He’s not, but even if the Royals wanted Jeter, I’m sure the interest wouldn’t be mutual.  Besides Yuniesky Betancourt has a higher bWAR than Jeter this year anyway (I checked 5 times to make sure I wasn’t hallucinating).

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Artie Moreno isn’t afraid to open up the checkbook but the Angels really like Erick Aybar.  He’s having a down year with the bat but is regarded as a very strong fielder (despite a slightly negative UZR this year).  I could see Jeter having some interest in the Angels, but I don’t think the Angels would have interest in Jeter.

Los Angeles Dodgers

If Mr. Torre wasn’t heading out the door this one might have a stronger chance.  While Jeter may respect Don Mattingly from his time in pinstripes, I think Torre would truly have been a draw to L.A.  With the McCourts’ messy divorce changing the budget daily, it’s tough to say whether they would be in on Jeter if he became available.  Even if the interest was mutual, the Dodgers already have Rafael Furcal locked into 2011 with and option for 2012 that vests with 600 PA’s (no sure thing for Furcal these days).  While on the surface it seems like a fit, I don’t see any way it would happen.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are set with Alcides Escobar and there’s no way Jeter would head off to Milwaukee to finish his career.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins have been on a spending spree the past few years but this wouldn’t happen.  JJ Hardy is under team control through 2011, and while he’s not that good, the extra cost of Jeter would be too rich for the Twins’ blood.  I also doubt Jeter would have much interest in going to Minny and playing second fiddle (in a small market no less).

New York Mets

Because it makes no sense you can’t rule out Omar Minaya (if still employed) being interested in Jeter.  Jose Reyes hasn’t been great this year but has likely played well enough to have his 2011 $11 million team option picked up.  It makes a lot more sense to have Reyes at 1 year/$11 million than whatever Jeter would cost.  Again, the odds are slim, but the Mets just might be dumb enough to try and sign Jeter to make a splash, more than to help them on the field.

Oakland Athletics

Jeter isn’t a fit here.  Cliff Pennington is cheap, not an automatic out with the bat and strong defensively.  He’s been worth 2.9 bWAR and 2.7 fWAR this year for $405k.  No reason to change it up here.

Philadelphia Phillies

No reason to mess with “the greatest infield of all time” in Philly.  Well, of course it’s no the greatest of all time, but with Jimmy Rollins locked up for 2011 Jeter doesn’t fit.

Pittsburgh Pirates

I think Jeter would rather stay in New York for the minimum than sign with the Pirates.

San Diego Padres

Jed Hoyer learned under Theo, and like Theo I don’t think he would have any interest in Jeter at the market rate.  While the Padres don’t have anything set in stone at the position for 2011 it doesn’t seem to be a fit for either side.  San Diego is nice, but I don’t see Jeter wanting to chase 3000+ hits in Petco.

San Francisco Giants

Juan Uribe has been ok this year in San Fran but is a free agent after the season.  He’s certainly a possibility to return, but the Giants have been willing to open up the checkbook.  Brian Sabean usually brings in position players when they are past their primes, so Jeter could be a fit by the Bay.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners this offseason prided themselves on defense, and while it hasn’t quite worked as hoped, I doubt they would want to sign a SS to a multi-year deal heading into his age 37 season.  Considering how poor their offense has been though, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities to sacrifice some defense at SS.  They do have Jack Wilson signed at $5 million for 2011, and would have to eat most of that if they wanted to move him.  Adding close to $5 million to Jeter’s pricetag doesn’t seem very likely though.

St. Louis Cardinals

On the field the Cardinals could be a fit as Brendan Ryan has been awful in 2010.  Opening the wallet for Jeter is a problem however. After blowing away the market overpaying for Matt Holliday and with upcoming contract negotiations for Albert Pujols, the Cardinals will be watching every penny.  Throwing $10-$15 million/year at a 37 year old shortstop isn’t likely to happen.  The Cardinals will likely just hope Ryan can return to his 2009 form, which produced 2.7fWAR and 3.4 bWAR.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays certainly aren’t a fit financially and despite Jason Bartlett’s fall from his great 2009 they are fine with him going forward.  Bartlett could go if he becomes too expensive in arbitration, but the Rays wouldn’t replace him with someone more expensive anyway, so Jeter’s a no go here.

Texas Rangers

I’d say the Rangers are plenty happy with Elvis Andrus, so no room for Jeter.

Toronto Blue Jays

Not a fit here as the Jays will likely let Yunel Escobar hold down the fort until Cuban signee Adeiny Hechavarria is ready.

Washington Natinals Nationals

The Nationals are set at SS with young and cheap Ian Desmond who has produced 1.5 bWAR and 1.5 fWAR for $400k this year.  He’s not going anywhere.

So there we have it.  Of the other 29 teams in baseball I only see one team that makes a ton of sense for Jeter (the Tigers) and a few others that might be a fit (Braves, Reds, Mets, Giants, Mariners).  While the last thing I want to happen is for the negotiations to get publicly contentious, I definitely think the Yankees have the upper hand when it comes to leverage.  No matter what, I can see almost no scenario in which Jeter isn’t back in the pinstripes next year.

Sunday Morning Links

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A few morning links for your pleasure:

Growing up in New England there aren’t many baseball phenoms I get to follow.  While I now pay extra attention to Jeff Locke (wow does that Nate McLouth trade look bad), I hadn’t heard much about Jeff Allison in a while.  Allison was a big story in New England in 2003 when drafted but it was downhill soon thereafter.  Allison unfortunately went down the Josh Hamilton path and had serious problems with substance abuse.  Here’s a recent story on Allison, and it’s good to see that he has been sober for almost 4 years now.  He may never make it to the majors, but he’s come a long way since nearly dying twice of overdoses.  If the baseball story never pans out hopefully the human being side will.

There have been approximately 22,000 articles written this week on Johnny Damon potentially returning to the Red Sox, and then Johnny Damon refusing to return to the Red Sox.  Some people (idiots) ripped him and called him a coward, while others looked a little deeper.  Lee Jenkins had the best take that I read on it, and while Damon didn’t leave New York under the best of circumstances, there was never the animosity that was prevalent when he left Boston.  For a guy who has played for 5 teams (so far) in his career, at the end of it I think he’ll consider himself a Yankee.

We all know Stephen Strasburg is heading for surgery and baseball fans everywhere are saddened by it.  He simply is a talent that fans could rally around because he is truly a special to watch.  Here former phenom Mark Prior addressed the latest news on Strasburg from someone who has clearly been there.  Interesting note in the article is that Prior was recently clocked at 92 MPH.  Prior, once a Yankee draft pick is still trying to come back and while I would never rely on him, I’d love to see the Yankees take a flyer on him.  He is, after all, still just 29 years old.

While I’m not a big Rick Reilly fan he did a good job of telling the story of Jane Lang and her dog Clipper’s recent visit to Yankee stadium.  Not much to add to this but to drive home the fact that Hope Week has quickly become one of the best things about the Yankees season.  Some of the stories really make you reflect on how good you have things, and this is no different.

Buyer Beware……….in 2015

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Felix Hernandez recently became the 3rd youngest player since 1950 to reach 1000 career strikeouts.  While the offseason extension he signed may have put a damper on the King Felix to NY dreams, he still will hit free agency at the age of 29.  Next time around don’t expect much of a team friendly deal though, and the Yankees will certainly be in the mix barring a disaster for Felix on the way.

What are the odds of this disaster?  As a young guy with a ton of pitches already on his arm, is he more predisposed to injury or burning out too soon?  I decided to take a look at other pitchers who reached 1000 strikeouts before their age 26 season.  Since 1950, 11 pitchers have done this.  Let’s take a look at who they are and how they performed until they were 25 and how they performed from 29 (when Felix will likely become a FA) to 35.

Future Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven is 1st on the list.  While he was still a very good pitcher, he saw decreases in his K/9 rate (to 6.7) and K/BB rate (to 2.79).  Also, his ERA+ dropped from a stellar 132 to a decent 118.  His best years certainly came before hitting 29 but he was very productive into his mid 30’s.

Everyone is aware of Dwight Gooden’s problems and his career certainly peaked early, but if his early workload was a factor(likely), it was only one of many.  Doc certainly battled his demons throughout the years.  Ages 29-35 were not pretty for Doc, with a 6.1 K/9, 1.44 K/BB and a 96 ERA+.  He was done at the age of 35.

Sam McDowell’s last good year as a major league pitcher came at the age of 28 (after a league leading 305 innings at 27).  He was done at 32.  From 29-32 he was bad, with a 6.9 K/9, 1.23 K/BB and 87 ERA+.  After a very solid start to his career, McDowell was out of the game at an age where Randy Johnson had just 104 wins.

Fernandomania is next.  Even though he came along later than most of the guys on this group, Valenzuela still came up in an era where pitch counts were mostly ignored.  While he also battled some conditioning issues, I think the workload certainly caught up to Fernando.  After a stunning start to his career, Fernando’s last good season came at 25 and was less than mediocre after the age of 29.  From 29-35 Fernando had a 4.8 K/9 ratio, 1.38 K/BB ratio and 91 ERA+.  He retired at 36.

While Don Drysdale is in the Hall of Fame, his late career was not great and he retired at 32.  From 29-32 his K/9 ratio was 5.8 with a strong 3.17 BB/9 ratio and about a league average ERA+ of 105.  Leading the league in starts for 4 straight years from 25-28 (eclipsing 300 innings every year) certainly couldn’t have helped him in his twilight.  He basically did nothing after the age of 28 that bolstered his Hall of Fame chances other than compile a few more wins.

Frank Tanana was a great young left handed fireballer (I’ve heard Jon Lester as a good comp.) who was one of the best pitchers in baseball before he hurt his arm. He came back and  reinvented himself as a soft tosser.  While he was pretty successful afterwards, he never again approached his early career success.  From 29-35 he had ratios of 5.9 K/9, 2.12 K/BB and a 107 ERA+.

Denny McLain had some Gooden like off the field issues, but was out of baseball at 28 primarily due to serious arm problems.  At ages 24 and 25 he threw 661 innings combined and threw just 384.1 the rest of his career.  He appeared to be on his way to the Hall of Fame (114-57 thru 25) but clearly never came close.  He never even reached his age 29 season, but from 26-28 he struck out just 4.3 batters per 9 with a 1.46 K/BB ratio and a 73 ERA+. The workload certainly got to McLain soon after he was old enough to rent a car.

Larry Dierker’s career got started at 17 (and think of how impressive what Jesus Montero is doing in AAA at the age of 20).  Shockingly enough (or not shocking at all), Dierker was done at 30.  At 29 and 30 Dierker had a 4.7 K/9, 1.34 K/BB and an 87 ERA+.  Good thing he threw those 305 innings at the age of 22 though.

Former A and Yankee Catfish Hunter is up next, and while he stuck around long enough to be enshrined in Cooperstown (his worthiness is another discussion) Catfish’s career also ended early and his career as a great pitcher ended as soon as he hit 30.  He actually wasn’t a great pitcher from 19-25 but racked up a ton of innings getting him plenty of strikeouts.  His best years came from 25-29 but was about average after that.  From 29-33 he struck out 4.5 batters per 9, had a 1.84 K/BB ratio and a 103 ERA+ that includes his 144 ERA+ at 29.

Last on the list is Joe Coleman who was done at 32 and threw just 378 innings after 29.  He had a 4.9 K/9 and a 1.25 K/BB to go along with a 101 ERA+.  At 18 he threw 93 innings between the minors and majors.  At 19 it was 208.  Too bad Tom Verducci wasn’t around to save the day.

I didn’t know what I was going to encounter when I started this post, but maybe Nolan Ryan should take a look.   A lot of these guys burned out early and it would be interesting to see what they could have accomplished with today’s workloads and pitching programs.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that a lot of these guys were out of the game so early, and none of them could match their early successes.  While I don’t think too much can be culled from these comparisons I think it’s interesting nonetheless.   Clearly Felix has been groomed differently as a big money bonus baby whose every move and pitch has been tracked since he signed.  Still, there is no guarantee he will be healthy down the road, and some believe you only have so many bullets in an arm before its shot.  I hope Felix is sitting there as a big free agent at 29 because that will mean continued health and success for him.  If he ends up on the Yankees down the road, lets just hope he breaks the mold of the list of guys above.

Austin Kearns in 2011?

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Will we see this in 2011? (AP Photo/Wagner)

I know I’m getting ahead of myself this year, but should the Yankees try to resign Austin Kearns in the offseason?  Assuming  they are sold on Brett Gardner and will not be signing Carl Crawford, I think Kearns might have a role for this team beyond 2010.

Kearns has had a solid year after signing for 1 year/$750k with the Indians in the offseason, but has he done enough to either make significantly more money and get signed to be a full time player?  On point #1, I’d say the answer is no.  I don’t see him getting a multi-year deal in the offseason for very much money.  On point #2, I can see him getting a chance to start full time, but likely on a bottom feeding team.  Maybe he’d rather do that than sign on as a 4th outfielder, but if he’s willing to become a part time player next year at the age of 31, I think he’s a great fit for the Yankees.

Kearns would become a great 4th OF for this team, filling the role many had hoped of Randy Winn.  He can play the corners well defensively, and could probably still handle in CF in a pinch(though Mo forbid it ever got to that).  He also shows no drastic splits vs. lefties or righties, which can be viewed as both a positive and a negative for a bench player.  The negative is that he doesn’t provide any great skills(like Marcus Thames vs. LHP) but I think the positive that he isn’t completely inept against either RHP or LHP outweighs the lack of a great skill.  And anyway, if Kearns was great against either hand while being adequate against the other he would certainly be a starter elsewhere.

I have no idea what Kearns has in mind for 2011 and at this point maybe he doesn’t either. He’s played in almost 1000 games without ever reaching the playoffs.  Maybe a deep run this season and he realizes he’d rather get 300 AB’s for a contender than 600 for a bottom feeder.  Maybe he knows that next huge contract isn’t coming and is content with the $20+ million he’s made so far (assuming he hasn’t gone Antoine Walker or Mark Brunell on us).  It truly comes down to Kearns’ desires, but I would love to see him back in the pinstripes in 2011.

Ramiro Pena’s offensive season

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Ramiro Pena’s triple on Wednesday night helped boost his OPS from .456 to .486.  On the list of worst Yankee offensive (in more ways than one) seasons since 1950 his game Wednesday night dropped him from 8th worst to 10th worst (min. 100 ab’s, see chart below).  I bring this up to not bash Ramiro Pena, but just to show how truly inept he is with the bat.  Now that Eduardo Nunez has been called up to the big leagues, there is no justification for having Pena start a game.

Pena will stick around because of his glove, but that doesn’t mean he should be getting any meaningful at-bat’s.  Sure Nunez isn’t a great fielder and is a very flawed hitter, but he’s Babe Ruth with the bat compared to Pena.  We know, beyond the shadow of a doubt, that Ramiro Pena simply will not be productive batting.  Nunez probably won’t be great, but there’s just about no way he can be worse than Pena.  So why, with Nunez eligible, did Pena get the start Thursday against the Tigers?  Maybe they didn’t want to throw Nunez right in, especially in a day game.  Maybe they wanted to bring him into a game as a reserve first to get his feet wet which they were able to do with a 9 run lead.  Whatever the reason, Pena, who remarkably already has 120 plate appearances (heading into Thursday) should end the season with no more than 150.  He’s been that bad.

His triple the other night was his 2nd extra base hit.  In 28 starts he has 3 two hit games.  Of the other 9 Yankee seasons since 1950 with an OPS less than .500, and SLG and OBP’s below .250, 4 of them happened before the DH existed (though non-pitchers).  Of the other 4, 3 were in the 70’s and 2 were in the 80’s.  Yes, it has been 23 years since a Yankee has been so poor offensively.  If it wasn’t for risk of injury, the Yankees might be better off having the DH hit for Pena and have the pitchers hit for themselves.  It’s coming down to that.  All of this is a simple plea to Joe Girardi, do not start Ramiro Pena.  Ever.

Link Dump: Defensive metrics, Greinke, Papelbon and Berkman

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A few Sunday morning links for your reading pleasure:

Tim Marchman of SI.com addresses the problem with defensive stats and I couldn’t agree with him more.  While there is some value in the various defensive stats and the other stats that derive from them (WAR, VORP, etc.) I don’t think we can throw these out there every time to prove that Player X is better than Player Y simply because he has a better WAR.  The data isn’t 100% reliable as is shown by different metrics for these stats. I don’t know that there will ever be a perfect fielding metric as it will always have some subjectivity, having one uniform stat would be a good start.

Zack Greinke is unhappy in Kansas City.  Let the speculation begin, especially in New York.  I’m sure this offseason will be full of Greinke trade rumors, and whether or not the Yankees are involved they will be linked.  I think the Royals should trade him, looking for a Teixeira to the Braves type of package as they won’t go anywhere while Greinke is under his current contract and look at what the Tex trade has done for Texas.  While he is more than just a rental, the Royals should strike and get as big a package as possible.  From the Yankees perspective I’d just go all in on signing Cliff Lee and let Greinke go elsewhere.  The cost will simply be too much if he does go anywhere.

Another blown save by Jonathan Papelbon (and a doozy) and another article questioning whether he should be demoted with Daniel Bard taking over as closer.  As a Yankees fan I can only dream the Sox decide to put Papelbon in the 8th.  That would be beyond fantastic.  When Papelbon has been bad this year he has been really bad, but I don’t think it’s time to go to Bard.  I hope both Yankee and Sox fans get their wishes and the switch is made. I can’t imagine what we’d hear coming from Papelbon’s mouth if it happened, but I would get my popcorn ready if it goes down.

Here’s an article about one of the newest (and already hated by some) Yankees, Lance Berkman. It’s mainly about what he went through at the trade deadline and what he’s gone through since.  Pretty interesting to note the teams he was ok going to and those he wasn’t.  I can’t imagine why San Diego was ever interested in him, were they going to put him in the OF?  Scary thought.  Anyway it’s an interesting take from his point of view and also take note of the comments below the article.  Only a few fans have commented but they seem to show what a class act Lance was and expect him to help the Yankees in a big way. So do I.

Cashman’s best offseason move

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Credit: Sipkin/New York Daily News

Brian Cashman had a tough offseason coming into 2010.  While many of his moves made sense at the time, several of Cashman’s offseason trades and signings have not worked out.  Nick Johnson is likely out for the season after less than 100 plate appearances.  Javy Vazquez has at least provided innings, but otherwise has been much worse than expected.  Curtis Granderson, so far, has not rebounded from his poor 2009 and will need to hope Kevin Long can get him straightened out with an overhaul of his swing.  Chan Ho Park and Randy Winn, again signings that made sense, were disasters.  All of this brings me to one move that Cashman nailed in the offseason: Marcus Thames.

Thames was brought in to mash left handed pitching.  Cash likely had some visions of Thames playing the OF, but the injury to Johnson has for the most part left Thames in the DH role.  That’s a good thing.  Thames is a butcher in the outfield, but we knew this before he was signed.  Keep him out of the outfield at all costs. Despite doing everything asked of him and more, Thames has seemed to get no love this year which is unfortunate.

It started for Thames in spring training when he could not buy a hit.  He went 7 for 52 putting up a stunning .135/.182/.269 line.  Just 33 at-bats into spring training people already wanted Thames cut (Ed. Note: Like this idiot).  Small sample size be damned, people were killing the Thames signing and instead wanted the Yankees to keep Jamie Hoffmann, or explore the Jermaine Dye, Gary Sheffield market.  Luckily cooler heads prevailed and Thames made the cut.

Thames shining moment of the season, when he was finally appreciated by the majority of fans quickly disappeared.  On Monday May 17th Thames did the thing that Yankees fans might enjoy most for a regular season game.  Hit a walkoff against Jonathan Papelbon.  It doesn’t get much better than that, and remember, Paps is a right handed pitcher, so it wasn’t what Thames was brought in for.  If Thames had struck out there I would not have been surprised nor pissed at him, it’s not his primary role.  24 hours later of course it all came crashing down as Thames dropped a ball in the outfield that led to a Yankees loss, again against the Sox.  Thames was nearly in tears after the game; probably as much for the reception he would get from fans as he was for blowing the game.  Again though, Thames was outside of his element, he had no business being in the field in the 9th inning of a close game.

Getting back to Thames’ actual role he could not be doing a better job.  He is hitting .343/.416/.448 off left handed pitchers.  More shockingly Thames is even destroying right handed pitchers this year to the tune of a .283/.386/.500 line.  For a guy who was only brought in to hit lefties, could he have possibly brought more to the table than he has?