A few fish on the Yanks’s radar

The July 31 non-waiver trade deadline just gained some urgency for the Yanks. With Andy Pettitte gone for anywhere from two to five weeks, the Yanks could use some help in the rotation. That’s in addition to the help they already could have used on the bench and in the bullpen. The latter two are common needs for contenders at the deadline, but the former might present something of a problem. There just isn’t much good starting pitching left on the market. But could the Yanks turn to one team to fill all of their needs?

During the past few weeks we’ve seen the Yankees connected to a number of the reportedly available Florida Marlins. Earlier in the month we learned that the Yankees were in attendance to watch Ricky Nolasco pitch against Dan Haren. The Yanks, of course, could have been there for Haren, or they might have been there to scout other Marlins targets. Later in the month we saw the Yanks connected to Cody Ross and Leo Nunez, and just recently we saw that they had interest in Wes Helms. Clearly the Yanks won’t acquire all four of these players, but they certainly could turn to the Marlins for a couple of them.

While Brian Cashman has stated his preference for in-house options to replace the injured Pettitte, that might not be a realistic option. Mike went over the Pettitte replacement options earlier, and none of the in-house options seems all that attractive. Moving outside the organization, however, would bring the Yankees many benefits. First, it would give them an established starter to replace Pettitte temporarily, allowing the Yanks to play it conservative with the 38-year-old. Then, when Pettitte does return, the Yankees can use the extra starter to help more easily control Phil Hughes‘s innings. As long as they’re not committing big dollars for multiple years, a la Roy Oswalt, acquiring a pitcher will work in their favor.

Photo credit: Lynne Sladky/AP

Nolasco, 27, could fill that role in the rotation. For the second straight year he’s sporting a poor ERA, but also for the second straight year his component stats suggest that he’s actually a bit better than that. He has a career 3.98 FIP, including a 3.77 mark in 2008 and 3.35 last year. His xFIP also sits below 4.00 at 3.85 for his career. In the last three years that has been 3.75, 3.28, and finally 3.73 this year. His current strikeout rate, 7.91 per nine, matches his career total. We also know he’s capable of more, as he struck out 9.49 per nine last year.

Home runs have been Nolasco’s most concerning problem this year. He has allowed 20 in 116 IP, a high number for sure but one that might come down if he leaves Miami. Of those 20, 11 have come at home. That might not seem like a huge difference, but he has also pitched 13.1 fewer innings at home than on the road. In other words, a move away from whatever they’re calling the Marlins’ ballpark right now could be to his benefit.

Photo credit: Andres Leighton/AP

Starting pitching, according to Cashman, is a luxury at this point. Even with Pettitte’s injury he’s focusing on bench and bullpen. He might find solutions to both issues also on the Marlins. Leo Nunez has pitched very well this year, boasting a career-high strikeout rate to go with a very low walk rate and a nearly nonexistent home run rate. That last stat might seem ripe for regression, but as his 2.83 xFIP shows, that’s not the case. The reason: he’s posting a career high groundball rate, probably because he’s turning to the changeup more often than in the past. All of these attributes would make him not only an excellent candidate for the pen, but also one for Mariano’s primary setup man.

Cody Ross and Wes Helms would present options for the bench, though Ross could also serve as a platoon partner for Curtis Granderson should the Yankees decide to take that road later in the season. He has a .379 wOBA against lefties this season and a .398 mark for his career. This season hasn’t been that great from a power perspective, as he’s hitting the ball on the ground more often. Even so he’s a decent option for the Yanks against left-handed pitching. Helms, 34, can man the infield corners and little else. I’m not sure how interested the Yanks are in him; if you’ll remember back to the 2006-2007 off-season the Yanks actually had the highest bid for Helms, then a free agent. He ended up taking less from the Phillies, and has been decidedly mediocre ever since.

Florida currently sits 9.5 games out of first in the NL East and 6 games out of the NL Wild Card, so they could become aggressive sellers in the coming weeks. A notoriously cheap team, the Marlins have spent more money this year than they have since 2005, which could affect their desire to unload players. But considering all of these players will be under control next year (Nolasco and Nunez have two more years of arbitration), the team might not be so inclined to move them. Maybe they’ll provide a multi-player discount for taking the current and future salaries off the books, but I doubt it would be anything significant. The Marlins have proven to be a stingy bunch.

Acquiring any of these Marlins players would help the team this year, and if the Yanks can get more than one of them all the better. The question, as always, comes with the price. The Yanks don’t appear willing to include Jesus Montero in any future deal, nor should they. Austin Romine is probably off-limits, too. That doesn’t leave the team with a ton to trade, especially if it involves multiple players. Considering that the marlins come as stingy dealers, I doubt these two teams match up. It’s a shame, because a few of those players would fit right in (also because Joe Girardi managed a few of them in Florida). But with the presumed costs involved I wouldn’t count on anything imminent.

Replacing Andy Pettitte

(AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

It’s not quite the worst case scenario, but it’s pretty damn bad. The Yankees lost Andy Pettitte yesterday for what GM Brian Cashman estimated to be four-to-five weeks with a Grade I groin strain. Sergio Mitre, coming off an oblique injury, will take Andy’s spot in the rotation for now, just like he did earlier in the season. That’s all well and good if this was a short-term thing, but we’re talking about a month long fill-in here. It could be even worse if Pettitte’s 38-year-old body doesn’t recover as quickly. There has to be a backup plan.

The Yanks sacrificed some pitching depth this offseason when they traded Ian Kennedy, who is having a decent enough season out in the desert (4.83 FIP, 4.32 xFIP). He assuredly would have been given the first crack at that rotation vacancy if he were still around. Luckily the Yanks still have plenty of options to fill that spot, some internal, some external. Let’s run them down.

In-House

Mitre is first in line for the open rotation spot simply because he’s the incumbent sixth starter. His spot starts against the Tigers (4.1 IP, 4 R) and Twins (5 IP, 1 R) were acceptable, even though the Yanks lost both games. Mitre has definitely looked better this season than he did last, but we have no idea what the injury will do to him. Chad Gaudin is another possibility out of the bullpen, but he’s been a mess this year and I suspect he’s a “break glass in case of emergency” option only. Ditto Dustin Moseley.

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Down in the minors, the Yankees have two viable starter options in my opinion: Ivan Nova (above) and Jason Hirsh. Zach McAllister has the shine of being a former top prospect, but he’s spun his wheels in Triple-A this year. He’s been far too hittable (.298 AVG against), hasn’t missed nearly enough bats (5.38 K/9), and isn’t getting ground balls either (37.4%). Sorry, that’s not deserving of a promotion. Tim Redding has been good in the minors this season (3.23 FIP, 84.2 IP), but we’ve all seen this movie before. It doesn’t have a happy ending.

Nova has a leg up on Hirsh simply because he’s already on the 40-man roster. His three inning cameo with the big league team earlier this season was mixed in with 103.2 innings of 3.92 FIP, 52.1% ground ball pitching in the minors. Not a set-the-world-on-fire performance, but certainly worth a look. Another thing Nova has in his favor is his schedule. He starts today from Scranton, which lines him up perfectly to start on Saturday, Pettitte’s next scheduled turn. If nothing else, they could keep Nova lined up with that spot so if he does get called up, the transition is seamless.

Hirsh actually spend a chunk of the season pitching out of Scranton’s bullpen before moving back into the rotation when the team decided Romulo Sanchez was better utilized in relief. As a starter this year, Hirsh has pitched to a rather ugly 4.96 FIP in 74 IP, with the big problem being the 11 homers he’s given up. That homer rate is high compared to the rest of his career, but I’m not sure you can call a guy up and count on the regression happening in the show. Hirsh isn’t on the 40-man either, which would require another move. That’s simple enough though, since Al Aceves can just slide over to the 60-day DL retroactively.

So out of the internal options, Mitre is Plan A, Nova Plan B, and I guess Hirsh and Gaudin duke it out for the title of Plan C.

(AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

Trade

The first name everyone will talk about here is Ted Lilly. He’s a former Yank that reportedly begged the team to bring him back as a free agent after the 2006 season only to watch them pick up Kei Igawa instead. Lilly has been rock solid in Chicago, though he missed the end of last season and the start of this season after having surgery to fix a debridement in his pitching shoulder. Unsurprisingly, his already not-so-great velocity has been further reduced, and his strikeout rate is down one full whiff per nine innings from the past few years.

Lilly is arguably the best starting pitcher on the market considering what should be a relatively low cost, so the Yanks will have plenty of competition for his services. His season marks of 4.62 xFIP and 4.58 tRA are right on par with Mitre’s career marks (4.29 and 4.64, respectively), so the upgrade might be minimal. The upgrade in name value is considerable though, too bad that doesn’t affect anything on the field.

Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren are pipe dreams, the Yanks aren’t going to make a major move like that to fill a hole for one or two months. I suppose Ricky Nolasco fits in this category as well. Ben Sheets has been dreadful on the road (6.29 FIP), Kevin Millwood has been dreadful everywhere (5.03 FIP).  Brett Myers of the Astros is a bit more realistic, and he is very much available. He’s having a nice bounceback season (3.71 FIP) and throws a ton of innings (at least six in all 19 starts), but again there will be plenty of teams interested in acquiring him. Former Yank Jay Westbrook (4.34 FIP) is another guy like Lilly and Myers. Got the name, not guaranteed to outpitch the in-house options.

If the Yankees do make a trade, the real question is about cost and what Cashman is willing to pay for a guy that might only be in the rotation for six or seven turns, maybe less. Since none of the reasonable targets currently available is an elite arm, I suspect not much.

Waiver Trade

If Cashman does make a deal for another starting pitcher, I’m willing to bet this is the route he takes. Waiver trades take place after the July 31st trade deadline, when any player on any team’s 40-man roster has to clear trade waivers (100% revocable) to be a traded. If a player is claimed, he can only be traded to the team that claimed him. Almost every player clears, situations like Alex Rios last year are few and far between. Pretty simple, and very rarely are their any complications.

Last year Cashman waited until August to essentially purchase Chad Gaudin from the Padres (he cleared trade waivers beforehand), who then went on to be very servicable down the stretch. We’re talking low risk, low cost, low expectations here.

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Someone like Jeremy Bonderman (4.27 FIP) could make sense here if the Tigers fall out of the race, though his salary (still owed more than $5.5M this year) is an issue. Detroit has already swallowed everything left on Dontrelle Willis’ and Nate Robertson’s contracts this year (more than $21M), so I can’t imagine they’d be willing to do that again. There’s always Brian Bannister (right), who was connected to the Yanks last year before they acquired Gaudin, but he’s not exactly setting the world on first this year (5.26 FIP). Dave Bush (4.98 FIP)? Meh.

That about sums up the state of the waiver market, but remember, right now there are eight-frickin-teen teams within six games of a Wild Card spot. Some of those clubs will inevitably drop out of the race over the next few weeks, and more players will become available.

The Yankees have the comfort of a three game lead in the division and a six-and-a-half game lead for the Wild Card if it comes down to that. They’re in a position where all they have to do is maintain the status quo while Pettitte is out, they don’t have to worry about playing catch-up. Of course that shouldn’t stop them from trying to field the best team possible, and might mean finding someone besides Mitre to start every five days. Remember, Phil Hughes is going to need a breather every now and then to avoid an unnecessarily dangerous increase in workload, so they’re probably going to need another spot starter at some point.

Mitre and Nova are solid sixth and seventh starters, but of course they’re not going to replace what Andy was doing this year. Solid outings every five days and enough to keep the team in the game is really all we could ask for, and if the Yanks don’t get that, Cashman will do something about it. I’m sure of it.

Fan Confidence Poll: July 19th, 2010

Record Last Week: 2-1 (19 RS, 19 RA)
Season Record: 58-33 (488RS, 371 RA, 56-35 Pythag. record), 3.0 games up
Schedule This Week: Monday OFF, vs. Angels (two games, Tues. and Weds.), vs. Royals (four games, Thurs. to Sun.)

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Yanks lose Pettitte in win over Tampa

After the top of the first, the Yanks were on the wrong end of a 3-0 score against Tampa Bay, and two innings later with one out in the top of the third, they lost starter Andy Pettitte to a groin strain. Yet, even with David Price on the mound, this one was far from over. The bullpen held the Rays to just two runs over the final 6.2 innings, and the Yanks knocked around Price to emerge as 9-5 winners. With two wins over Tampa this weekend, the Yanks now have a three-game lead in the AL East.

Early struggles and an early exit

Credit: AP Photo/Bill Kostroun

For Pettitte and the Yanks, this one started out on an inauspicious note. BJ Upton started the game with a booming double over Curtis Granderson‘s head in center field, and although Pettitte retired Carl Crawford on a diving play off the mound, Evan Longoria got hit with a pitch. Carlos Peña then blasted yet another home run against the Yankees to make it 3-0. Peña has now hit five home runs against his former employers this season.

Even though Pettitte escaped trouble in the first, he had nothing. After two singles following the home run, A-Rod saved a pair of runs by making a diving play on a Gabe Kapler line drive. In the second, Andy walked two, and in the third, he gave up a pair of hits before leaving the game with a groin strain.

Not sharp, Petitte threw 64 pitches and gave up three earned runs on six hits and three walks. But the Yankees will obviously miss him. If he’s truly out for a month, the Yanks may look to acquire a starting pitcher for the right price. In the meantime, they’ll go with Sergio Mitre and hope for the best.

Coaxing 20 outs from the pen starts with the first one

With Pettitte out of the game, the Yankees had a problem. They had clawed to within one run of Tampa, but the Rays were on the verge of feasting on the pen. Two runners were on, and Kelly Shoppach stood at the plate with a three-ball count. With Chad Gaudin and Dustin Moseley, the two typical long men out of commission, Joe Girardi had to get 20 outs from the rest of the pen, but he knew that the first two could be huge. So instead of throwing in the towel and leading with a lesser reliever, Girardi went to one of his best.

David Robertson entered, and although he issued ball four to Shoppach — with the walk charged to Pettitte — the right-hander got out of it. Sean Rodriguez popped up to short, and Upton flew out to Nick Swisher. In the fourth, Robertson retired Evan Longoria, Carlos Peña and and Ben Zobrist to strand Carl Crawford at first, and the bullpen was off to the races.

The rest of the pen was spectacular. Chan Ho Park threw 1.1 hitless innings. He was followed by Boone Logan, whose only blemish was a Kapler home run. Joba struck out three but gave up a run in 1.2 innings of work, and Mariano Rivera got the final out on one pitch. Every button Girardi pressed worked, but his biggest move was the first. Robertson now has a 2.52 ERA over his last 25 innings, and he has racked up 26 strike outs over that span. Trusting him to work out of trouble gave the Yankees the spring board they needed to stage a comeback.

Knocking around Price for Girardi’s 250th win

Credit: AP Photo/Bill Kostroun

Before the game started, I predicted a Pettitte-Price pitchers duel, and both southpaws failed to live up to their billing. The Yanks knocked around David Price for seven earned runs over five innings. He walked four and gave up seven hits while striking out just three en route to his fifth loss of the year. Just five days after drawing the All Star Game start, he looked anything but like an All Star.

The Yanks didn’t really have that one big hit today. Cano’s two-run triple got the Yanks off the mat in the bottom of the first. Posada’s booming two-run double helped put the game out of reach. Alex Rodriguez‘s 598th career home run served as icing on the cake. The biggest runs and hits though came from the Brett Gardner-Derek Jeter duo. In the fifth, Brett Gardner walked and stole second before Jeter singled him in. Earlier in the game, Jeter scored the tying run after an 0-2 hit. This was Derek’s first multi-hit game in seven tries and just his second since June 27.

For Price, this was his worst start of the year, and for Joe Girardi, it was his 250th win as Yankee manager. For the Yankees, it was their league-leading 58th win, and the team sent a message to Tampa. The Yanks remain the team to beat in the American League.

WPA goes down, WPA goes up

The Fangraphs box score, and the ESPN box score.

Up Next

The Yankees have a day off on Monday before the Angels come to town on Tuesday for a quick two-game set.

Phelps strong as SWB gets 10th win in last 13

Triple-A Scranton (3-2 win over Toledo)
Kevin Russo, LF: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 K – that’s his first hit since June 16th
Reegie Corona, 2B: 1 for 4, 1 3B, 2 RBI
Eduardo Nunez, SS: 0 for 2, 2 BB – one of the walks was intentional
Chad Tracy, 3B: 1 for 4 – ten for 27 (.371) since signing
Jesus Montero, DH: 1 for 3
Jorge Vazquez, 3B & Eric Bruntlett, RF: both 0 for 3 – JoVa K’ed twice, Bruntlett once
Greg Golson, CF: 2 for 3, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI - second homer in as many days
Chad Moeller, C: 0 for 2, 1 K, 1 HBP – hasn’t thrown out a single runner this season, the opposition is 19-for-19 in stolen base attempts
David Phelps: 6 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K, 1 Balk, 3-5 GB/FB – 64 of 99 pitches were strikes … 103-23 K/BB ratio in 106 IP
Romulo Sanchez: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB – 20 of his 33 pitches were strikes (60.6%)
Mark Melancon: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 2-1 GB/FB - threw seven pitches, all strikes
Jon Albaladejo: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 0-2 GB/FB - seven of his 12 pitches were strikes (58.3%) … hasn’t walked a batter since June 21st … one hit allowed in his last 7.2 IP, counting his Triple-A All Star Game appearance

[Read more…]

Pettitte could be out 4-5 weeks

Via Erik Boland, GM Brian Cashman says that he expects Andy Pettitte to be out four to five weeks with a left groin strain. Sergio Mitre will take his place in the rotation. Obviously, this is less than ideal news, and may impact how the Yankees approach next week’s trade deadline. With a rehab assignment and what not, it’s possible Andy might not be back until September. Yikes.

Sadly, this means the Chad Ho Moseley monster will stick around that much longer.

Open Thread: Two outta three ain’t bad

Kaploler (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

It wasn’t exactly a textbook win today, but I’ll take it. Losing two starting pitchers to injury in the last two days is bad news, but it looks like A.J. Burnett will make his next start, and we’ll just have to hope for the best with Andy Pettitte. Maybe it’ll be a blessing in disguise, helping keep his 38-year-old body fresh for the stretch drive. Either way, the win today gives the Yankees a three game cushion in the AL East over Tampa, and a 6.5 game lead over Boston.

Now it’s time to sit back and relax with our open thread. The ESPN Sunday Night game features the Phillies and Cubs (Halladay vs. Gorzelanny), but talk about whatever you want. Enjoy the evening.