This weekend marks the close of interleague play in 2011. After a two-series homestand the Yanks head across town to play their second to last series this year without the DH. The Yanks and the Mets met up during that brief interleague weekend in may, and after dropping the first one the Yanks took the next two. Overall they are 11-3 against National League opponents and have won their last five games.
What Have the Mets Done Lately?
The Mets have fared well since interleague play started. After dropping a series to Anaheim they won series against Oakland, Texas and Detroit. Included in those series wins is a string of four games in which they put up 52 runs, putting them over .500 for the first time since April 6th. They dropped the final game of the series to the Tigers, but they get a pass on account of facing Justin Verlander. Overall they’re playing some of their best baseball this season, which will certainly make this series a bit more exciting.
Mets on Offense
As a unit the Mets rank eighth in the majors with a .324 wOBA, and get a slight bump in the adjusted numbers because of their pitcher-friendly park. Understandably, they don’t hit for much power, ranking in the bottom third of the league in ISO. They are, however, fourth in OBP and BA and first in triples, so they do get the job done on offense. Their 4.56 runs per game ranks third in the National League.
Jose Reyes leads the way in every rate stat, hitting .352/.397/.529 while stealing 30 bases and scoring 65 runs. You’ll hear people, particularly announcers, saying that the key for the Yanks is to keep Reyes off base. That’s all find and good as a concept, but clearly it’s no easy task. Reyes is actually tied atop the WAR leader board right now with Jose Bautista with 5.3 WAR. Carlos Beltran isn’t far behind, hitting .281/.370/.493 with a team-leading 12 home runs. Reyes and Beltran are clearly the biggest threats on the team, but there are others who can do some damage.
The Mets were looking for big things from Angel Pagan, but a slow start followed by an injury set him, and them, back for a while. He’s finally starting to get into the rhythm, so don’t be fooled by his .326 wOBA. He’s produced .341 and .358 wOBAs in the last two years and is coming into the series 9 for his last 17 with three doubles. Daniel Murphy has been another threat, hitting .302/.346/.426 while playing around the diamond (though mostly at first).
There are a few underrated guys to look out for as well. Ronny Paulino has been getting a few more reps at catcher, and he’s been a bigger threat at the plate than Opening Day starter Josh Thole. Paulino is hitting .346/.387/.442 in 112 PA. That might not be a meaningful sample, but you never know how long a hot streak will last. I’d bet on him getting two out of three starts in the series. Jason Bay has also been quite a deal better lately, hitting .317/.371/.444 since June 11th. It’s not the Bay the Yankees came to know while he was in Boston, but then again he wasn’t that player last year and he still managed to kill them.
Mets on the Mound
Friday: LHP Jon Niese. A few weeks back I read somewhere that Niese’s rotation spot was in jeopardy. For a team with an already thin starting staff, I wasn’t sure why anyone would say that, but I guess they were frustrated by his 5.03 ERA on May 12th. Since then he’s pitched 49.2 innings to a 2.36 ERA, including 47 strikeouts to 13 walks. Overall on the season he’s thrown 98 innings to a 3.67 ERA and 3.62 FIP. On the whole he’s been the Mets most effective starter this year, and I’m sure they’re glad to have him going in the opener.
Saturday: RHP Dillon Gee. Gee has been a pleasant surprise for the Mets this year. In a way he’s like their Ivan Nova, but he’s produced better results. He has a below average strikeout rate and above average walk rate, but his ability to keep the ball inside the park helps his overall numbers: 3.32 ERA, 3.83 FIP. He started off June with three excellent starts in which he allowed one run combined, but he faced a few more struggled when facing American League lineups. Against Oakland and Texas he allowed seven runs in 10 innings. This time he faces his most difficult offense to date. It should be a bi gtest for him.
Sunday: RHP R.A. Dickey. On Sunday the Yankees will get their only repeat from the series earlier in the year. Unfortunately, it’s the one guy who held the offense in check. Dickey was going through a rough patch at that point, but since the Yanks series he’s pitched 51.1 innings to a 2.45 ERA, holding opponents to a .288 OBP. The Yankees have had trouble with knuckleballers — Dickey and Wakefield — this year, as well as guys who (according to John and Suzyn) they consider akin to knuckleballers (Doug Davis), so this could be another challenge. But it’ll be a day game, since ESPN mercifully picked up the Dodgers-Angels game.
Bullpen: The Mets bullpen has gotten beat up a bit this season, ranking 25th in WAR and sporting a 4.38 ERA. Francisco Rodriguez has been serviceable, if not good, in the closer role, but there have been problems setting him up. In particular watch out for Bobby Parnell. he was ineffective and then got hurt earlier in the year, but in June he’s allowed just two runs while striking out 12 and walking three in 12 innings.
Mike will be working MLB Trade Rumors and then heading on his way to Citi Field this afternoon, so I’ll take over as his chat host. We’ll gather ’round the chat table at 2 and take you into the holiday weekend. It should be a nice way to end the work day for those who are still stuck there this afternoon.
Via Kirk Bohls, the Yankees have signed second round pick Sam Stafford for $400,000, which is just a touch over-slot. Stafford, a left-hander from Texas, has run his fastball up as high as 96 while showing a power curveball this spring and last summer. He struck out 91 but walked 42 in 81.1 IP with the Longhorns this year. Stafford’s raw stuff is undeniable but he struggles to harness it, so he’s going to have to work on his changeup and overall command to stick as a starter. Here’s some video.
Mailbag time. Lots of questions this week so I tried to keep the answers short. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send in any questions…
Orciari asks: Heard Sox just DFA’d Cameron, any interest for NY? Obviously it would mean removing Jones, who would you rather have?
Neither is great, and they’re basically the same player. Low average guys that will draw some walks and hit for power, mostly against lefties. Also solid defenders that were once great in center. Mike Cameron was cut because he’s been brutal this year, a .216 wOBA in 105 plate appearances including a .232 wOBA against southpaws, which is why they got rid of him in the first place. Yeah, Andruw Jones strikes out a bunch, but so does Cameron, and at least he’s still shown that he can be reasonably productive. It didn’t work for Cameron with one AL East team, I see no need to make the switch.
EJ asks: What percentage of chance do you think the Yankees have in signing Jeremy Rathjen? Who do you think will be the five toughest players to sign from the 2011 draft?
Very small, and in face Baseball America called Rathjen completely unsignable right before the draft. They’ve already taken care of one tough sign in 13th rounder Justin James, who came to terms a few days ago. The other difficult ones will be Jordan Cote (third round), Rookie Davis (14), Hayden Sharp (18), Dan Camarena (20), and Adam Ravenelle (44). I’m confident they’ll get Cote signed (they didn’t take him that high not to sign him), though the others will be tough. My guess today is that they land two of them, likely Davis and Sharp.
Sven asks: If Freddy Garcia is a type B free agent at the end of the year do the Yankees offer arbitration? What about Swisher? If he finishes with say 25 HRs and an .800 OPS do they buy him out and then offer arbitration as a type A free agent?
Garcia is just short of qualifying as a Type-B (as in ~1.5 points short), and I assume he’ll make the jump into Type-B territory if he continues to pitch the way he has. If he does that, he’ll earn all of his incentives, pushing his total 2011 salary to $5.1M. If the Yankees offered him arbitration and he accepted, Garcia would probably get a salary somewhere around $7-8M next season. Is that worth the risk for a sandwich pick? I think it’s a fair salary, but there’s a heightened risk give his age and recent injury history.
I don’t see why the Yankees wouldn’t pick up Nick Swisher‘s option at this point. If you can find me a better right field option for next year that will sign for less than (or equal to) one year and $9.25M (the net cost of Swisher’s option), then we’ll talk about buying him out. But for argument’s sake, if they did decline the option, I’m guessing they’d absolutely offer him arbitration. He’s comfortably a Type-A free agent, and worst case scenario he accepts and they’re stuck with him next year for $12-15M or so. Obviously the option is the cheaper way to go, assuming they want to keep him.
Nick asks: Why don’t the Yankees focus on signing Prince Fielder this offseason? Prince is not a pitcher but would be a perfect fit for Yankee Stadium and he is about to hit his prime. Prince isn’t one of the free agents on the wrong side of his 30s when the Yankees signed him either.
Of course he’s a great fit for Yankee Stadium, pretty much every left-handed power bat is. Where is he going to play though? Are they going to give him a six or seven or eight year deal just to be the designated hitter? I can’t see why the Yankees would give Prince Fielder a deal like that when they’re going to need that DH spot for Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter in the not too distant future. Would he make the team better? Absolutely. But the cost is astronomical and it would destroy future roster flexibility.
bonestock94 asks: Are you beginning to doubt Montero’s ability to be a star in the majors? Am I just overreacting to a poor 2011 campaign?
It’s been 282 plate appearances, relax. The kid is 21 years old and in Triple-A, if he’s still struggling when he’s age appropriate for the level, then I’ll be worried. That’s at least two years away.
Steve asks: [What do you think about Brian Cashman saying there are no high-end starters available? Could they go after Jered Weaver?]
I had to shorten that question up, Steve got a little wordy. One of the many things I’ve learned in recent years is to never believe a word Cashman says. He never says anything that will tip his hand one way or the other, which is exactly what he should do. From here it doesn’t look like any ace-caliber pitchers will be available, but who knows. The trade deadline is a month away and things have a way of changing. I’m sure he and his staff are working diligently to find a high-end starter.
I have an irrational dislike of Weaver, so I might not be the guy to ask. He’s having a great year, but I can’t imagine the Angels would trade him away before at least attempting to re-sign him. I think they’d sooner trade Dan Haren to free up some money for Weaver.
CS Yank asks: At the start of the season, we were seeing 3-4 IP from ManBan and it seems like they either were going off a PC or pacing his IP. In seeing his [69.1] IP YTD, seems like it will likely be a two year build-up of innings (as AA is better than 50% done) as AA is typically over by Labor Day … so do you think his target was around 120 or will they have him go 6-7 from here on out to bring him up to around 150 IP this year? I’m guessing the ship has sailed (with the DL time, BB issue, etc) on any realistic chance to see him in the bigs in 2011.
The short starts early in the year had to do with with Spring Training and his blister. Remember he didn’t have a normal camp because he was with the big league team, so he was throwing 2-3 innings at a time rather than being stretched out normally. Once he got going with Trenton, he had to be shut down with the blister. He (and Dellin Betances) are on 90-100 pitch counts, but because of their control issues that usually means just five innings. They’ll go six innings if possible.
Banuelos only threw 64.2 IP last year because of the appendectomy and he’s already over that, but he did throw 109 IP in 2009. I’m guessing they’d like to get up around 120-130 IP, though remember that they can send him to a winter league (Arizona Fall League again, most likely) to get even more innings. Plus there’s Instructional League, all sorts of ways to get those innings in. But yeah, 120-130 IP this year seems like a reasonable target, then 150-160 next year.
Reggie asks: Would you be in favor of a prospect trade : Jesus Montero to the Rays, Matt Moore to the Yankees.
I think it’s fair value and it fills a need for both teams. Tampa could use another big bat to pair with Evan Longoria, and they could stick Montero at first long-term. The Yankees could always use a young, hard-throwing left-handed starter, so it’s easy to see why they’d want more. Fair and logical is one thing, but I think it goes without saying that neither team will ever make the trade. Every team loves their prospects more than everyone else’s, plus there’s the whole intra-division thing. That sure would be fun though, prospect-for-prospect trades don’t happen too often.
Would I do it? Yeah I would. Free agent hitters are safer bets, so it’s better to grow your own arms rather than throw money away. The more pitching prospects the merrier.
Kevin asks: What kind of a contract is Bartolo Colon looking at this offseason? Also, do the Yankees look to retain him or let him go and keep their lightning in a bottle from this year?
I have absolutely no idea. There’s no precedent for a situation like this, so anything I say is just guesswork. If he comes back from the hamstring injury and pitches like he did in April and May, can’t he go out on the market and say he wants $10M a year, maybe even for two years? I think in a perfect world, they’d re-sign him for one year and $5M with a bunch of incentives, assuming he continues to pitch as well as he has. At the end of the day, he’s still 38 years old with a bum shoulder. Who know how the stem cells will hold up.
There are times in this game when you don’t have to do anything more than sit back and enjoy it No stress, no concern about who is and who isn’t hitting, no looking ahead to bullpen machinations, nothing like that. Thursday afternoon’s series finale against the Brewers was one of those games, and all because of the guy on the bump.
The Big Man’s Big Day
We’ve seen CC Sabathia do some great things on the mound over the last two and half years, but we’ve never seen him do what he did in this game. Sabathia tied a career high with 13 strikeouts, topping his previous high in pinstripes by three. It was the first time a Yankees’ pitcher struck out 13 batters in a game since Roger Clemens in 2002, and it was the most strikeouts by a Yankees’ lefty since David Wells in 1998. All 13 strike threes were swinging, part of a season high 22 swings and misses generated by Sabathia. Seven of those strikeouts came on sliders. Over his last two starts, CC has struck out 22 and walked just three in 15.2 IP.
Only one Brewer managed to make it as far as third base against the Yankees ace, who retired 16 of the last 19 batters he faced. Carlos Gomez, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Mat Gamel, and George Kottaras each whiffed twice while Rickie Weeks wore the sombrero with three strikeouts. Sabathia raised his season strikeout rate from 6.6 to 7.4 K/9 in his last two starts and from 6.9 to 7.4 in this game alone. By my calculation, he went from a 2.81 FIP and 3.4 WAR to 2.66 and 4.0 with this start, respectively. Bravo CC, bravo.
Oh by the way, Mark Teixeira hit his 300th career homerun in this game, a quiet milestone. Easy to overlook that given Sabathia’s effort. The milestone blast came in the third inning, a leadoff shot off a Randy Wolf fastball in a 2-1 count. Security retrieved the ball, and in exchange Tex will have to give the guy who caught it a signed bat, a signed ball, and take a picture with him during batting practice at some point in the future. Not a bad haul.
The homer gave the Yankees a cushy three run lead, and just about a third of those 300 homers have come in pinstripes (97 to be exact). Teixeira currently leads the majors with 25 homers, and he’s just the eighth switch-hitter to go deep 300 times in his career. That’s not a bad group to be in, with guys like Mickey Mantle, Lance Berkman, and Chipper Jones.
The Yankees took the lead right in the very first inning, when Robinson Cano laced an opposite field double to drive in both Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher. Those two had walked to lead off the inning. Frankie Cervelli drove in a run with a bloop single in the third to make it four-zip, then they tacked on a garbage time run in the eighth. Frankie had three hits on the day, the only Yankee with more than one. Swisher and Andruw Jones each had a single and walk, Gardner just a walk. The Yankees stole three bases before Wolf recorded an out (Gardner stole second after the walk, then he and Swisher pulled off a double steal). Overall, it was a fine day for the offense.
Back when John Axford was bouncing between four levels in the Yankees farm system back in 2007, we (ahem) all knew that he’d one day pitch in Yankee Stadium. Today was that day. Milwaukee had to bring their closer into the game in the eighth inning just to get him some work in, which is one of my favorite things to watch. It’s always good when the other team can’t use their ninth inning guy until garbage time in the final game of a series. Axford allowed a run in his inning of work.
Boone Logan struck out Prince to end the eighth, though it wasn’t the prettiest at-bat. Fielder crushed several balls foul before Logan tied him up with a fastball inside. Luis Ayala got three ground balls on eight pitches in a flawless ninth inning.
The win gave the Yankees the sweep over the Brewers, their sixth consecutive series win and ninth in their last ten series. It was also their fifth win a row, a new season high. They’ve won nine of their last 11 games, 12 of their last 15, and 15 of their last 19. Since that six game losing streak in mid-May, the Yankees are 27-12, the best record in baseball. Yippee.
WPA Graph & Box Score
Wooo Subway Series! The Yankees and Mets get together for the second and (thankfully) final engagement of the 2011 Subway Series on Friday night at CitiField. Ivan Nova will get the party started against Jonathan Niese. RAB Tickets can get you there dirt cheap.
Jorge Vazquez, Kevin Whelan, and Jesus Montero will represent Triple-A Scranton on the International League All-Star Team. Montero was named to the team, the other two guys (who are currently on the disabled list) were voted on.
Triple-A Scranton (7-3 loss to Norfolk)
Greg Golson, CF & Jordan Parraz, RF: both 0 for 4 – Parraz whiffed twice
Doug Bernier, SS & Luis Nunez, 2B: both 0 for 2 – Bernier walked, struck out, and got picked off first
Jesus Montero, DH: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI – another opposite field homer to right, and he hit three balls hard
Mike Lamb, 1B: 2 for 3, 2 R, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB – now that’s a game
Brandon Laird, 3B: 1 for 4, 1 RBI
Gus Molina, C: 1 for 3
Austin Krum, LF: 0 for 3
Adam Warren, RHP: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HB, 6-4 GB/FB – 58 of 94 pitches were strikes (61.7%) … first clunker in a while, and this really isn’t that bad anyway
Andrew Brackman, RHP: 2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 WP, 1 HB – 25 of 41 pitches were strikes (61%) … typical Brackman, but at least he hit 93
Logan Kensing, RHP: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1-0 GB/FB – 11 of 17 pitches were strikes (64.7%)