River Avenue Blues

Nippon Ham Fighters will select Shohei Otani in NPB draft

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Via Sanspo (translated article): The Nippon Ham Fighters will select 18-year-old right-hander Shohei Otani in the first round of the NPB draft tomorrow. Otani, who Ben Badler (subs. req’d) says is one of the top high school prospects in Japan, has already said that he wants to join an MLB team this winter.

The NPB draft is nothing like the MLB draft — every team can select the same player, then his rights get awarded through a lottery. Chad Moriyama explained the whole crazy system. Balder reports that Otani would still be able to sign with an MLB team even if an NPB club drafts him, but the two leagues have an gentleman’s agreement in place preventing them from poaching each other’s amateur players. Otani could instead ask his club to post him a la Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

What Went Wrong: Derek Jeter’s ankle

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Over the next few weeks we’re going to spend some time reviewing the entire 2012 season, which featured another division title and unfortunately another disappointing playoff exit.

(Bruce Bennett/Getty)

The 2012 season was an overwhelming success for Derek Jeter, who just 18 months ago had been left for baseball dead (by me!) due to his continually declining production. He rebounded and led all of baseball in hits this season, putting up a .316/.362/.429 line in an MLB-leading 740 plate appearances. His 216 hits were three short of the career-high he set more than a decade ago, and for all intents and purposes the superstar-caliber hitter returned after a two-year hiatus.

Unfortunately, Jeter’s season came to a premature end in Game One of the ALCS. He took a step or two to his left to field a ground ball in the 12th inning, but crumbled to the ground before completing the play. The Cap’n stayed down on the ground and eventually had to be carried off the field, almost literally, by Joe Girardi and the trainer. It was a harrowing sight for sure. Jeter is as close to baseball invincible as it gets.

That step in the ALCS was not the start of his ankle problems, however. Jeter first started nursing some kind of left ankle injury in very early-September, though it wasn’t bad enough to keep him off the field. He did limp noticeably while running down the line and in the field, however. Derek came up lame in a mid-September game against the Red Sox after trying to beat out an infield single, hitting the base hard with his left foot. He aggravated what had previously been diagnosed as a bone bruise, and he was limited to DH work for the next four games.

The bone bruise cleared up though, at least we thought. Jeter returned to the field a few days later and made just three DH starts in the final 15 games of the season. Recent reports indicate that he did receive a cortisone shot at some point, but he was hitting — .322/.374/.380 in New York’s final 27 games plus six hits and a walk in the ALDS — so it certainly didn’t appear that the ankle was much of an issue late in the season and into the team’s first round playoff matchup with the Orioles. Jeter looked fine, frankly.

(Al Bello/Getty)

We have no idea if or how the bone bruise contributed to the fracture. Brian Cashman told reporters the night of the injury that he didn’t believe one led to the other, but who knows? Jeter could have been playing with a very tiny (and undetected) fracture that was a non-issue until that one final step for all we know. I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. Derek had surgery to repair the ankle this past weekend and the recovery time has been estimated at four or five months.

“I believe that Dr. Anderson just put in a more conservative timeframe on it, as explained to me,” said Cashman. “So there’s no new information, nothing seen worse than what our team doctor saw. But in terms of the timeframe, I just think [Anderson] wanted to be more conservative with it, so that’s what we’re going to go with.”

Four or five months means Jeter should be ready just in time for Spring Training. Of course, as a 38-year-old shortstop with a lot of miles on those legs, it’s possible his rehab will take longer than expected. Even if it doesn’t, it’s possible the injury will impact Jeter’s ability to get ready for the season or just move around freely and easily on the field. He was never the rangiest defensive shortstop to start with, so the worst case scenario for this injury would be rendering Derek completely useless in the field. I don’t expect that to happen but it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world.

The Yankees have a serviceable backup plan at shortstop in Eduardo Nunez and they have the entire offseason to monitor Jeter’s rehab and act accordingly. If the healing process takes longer than expected for whatever reason, they’ll have a chance to add an infielder via free agency or trade before the season begins. That part really isn’t a problem. The injury didn’t just bring Jeter’s brilliant season to a premature end though, it also brought his status for next season and ability to continue playing at an elite level into question.

Notes from Girardi’s end-of-season press conference

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(Seth Wenig / AP Photo)

The Yankees were swept out of the ALCS by the Tigers almost a week ago, but it wasn’t until today that Joe Girardi conducted every manager’s annual end-of-season press conference. He said the team has yet to look back and evaluate the 2012 campaign just because everyone takes a few days off to be with their families and kinda get away from baseball immediately after the season ends. They’ll obviously evaluate the club top to bottom in the coming weeks. Here are the important notes from the press conference…

On Alex Rodriguez…

  • “These were things that we evaluated a lot before we made our decisions,” said Girardi when asked about benching A-Rod in the postseason. “I don’t go back and second guess myself.”
  • Girardi has not yet spoken to Alex (or any other player for that matter) about their relationship, but said “that will take place … it just hasn’t yet.” He isn’t worried about things being strained but acknowledged that actions have consequences and he will deal with them if need be.
  • Girardi said he believes A-Rod was healthy in the postseason and was just struggling, particularly against righties.
  • “Can Alex be a very good player again? Absolutely, I don’t have any question in my mind,” said the skipper. He praised A-Rod’s baseball smarts and said he expects him to be his everyday third baseman next season.
  • Chad Jennings has Girardi’s full quotes about A-Rod if you aren’t sick of hearing about it yet.

On the playoffs…

  • “Yes it was somewhat puzzling,” said Girardi on the offense’s struggles. He attributed Robinson Cano’s disappearing act to being pitched well and just falling into a poorly-timed slump. He did acknowledge that Robbie was frustrated, which likely compounded the problem.
  • Girardi said he doesn’t think the team’s unfavorable postseason schedule contributed to their lack of hitting, ditto all the tough games they had to play down the stretch in September. He basically said he doesn’t believe his team was worn out after a month of playoff-type games.
  • “I hope not,” said Girardi when asked if he may have he lost the trust of some players by sitting them in the postseason. “I was making moves trying to win ballgames … I’ve been honest with our players and I will continue to do that, and I will do my best for this organization to win every game.”
  • Girardi attributed the dull Yankee Stadium atmosphere in the postseason to a lack of scoring on the team’s part, nothing more. “I think our fans are very passionate about the Yankees (because) we see it even on the road.”

On injuries…

  • “(It has) not taken place,” said Girardi when asked if CC Sabathia has gone to visit Dr. James Andrews about his elbow. He is encouraged by his ace left-hander’s performance in September and the ALDS and he expects to have him in Spring Training. “We’re always concerned that it’s maybe something more than you think it is … I don’t like people going to see doctors (but) sometimes people have to be evaluated to make sure everything is okay.”
  • “We expect him to be back and playing for us next year on Opening Day,” said Girardi about Derek Jeter and his fractured ankle. He added that there are always concerns following a surgery, including Jeter pushing his rehab too hard and having some kind of setback.
  • Mariano Rivera did throw sooner than expected this year but Girardi never did ask him if he will definitely return next season. “I don’t think you push a rehab like he pushed it unless you have some interest in coming back,” he said.
  • There were no undisclosed or “hidden” injuries this year, so to speak. Russell Martin’s hands are banged up but that is typical catcher stuff and isn’t a long-term concern.
  • Both hitting coach Kevin Long (elbow) and third base coach Rob Thomson (hip) will have surgery this offseason, if you care.

On free agents and the team moving forward, etc…

  • “There’s a lot of hunger and fire in him,” said Girardi about Andy Pettitte, but he doesn’t know if the veteran southpaw will return next year. He expects him to discuss things with his family before making a decision.
  • He mentioned briefly that like Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda is among the players who will make a decision about his future and playing beyond this year.
  • Girardi said he was unsure about Ichiro Suzuki coming back next year but he knows the veteran outfielder enjoyed his time in New York. He also praised Ichiro for making adjustments like playing left field and batting towards the bottom of the order.
  • “I think this kid has something to offer us,” said the manager about Eduardo Nunez while also acknowledging that his role for next year is undetermined because other parts of the club are unsettled. “There is talent there, there is speed, there is excitement, he has a lot to offer.”
  • “There’s a lot of players we have to decide what we’re going to do with, but I believe when Spring Training starts next year, we’ll be a championship club,” said Girardi, acknowledging that the team has a lot of players with open contract situations.
  • He also spoke about the Yankees getting power from non-traditional power sources (specifically catcher, second base, and center field) and their ability of the offense to absorb the loss of a homerun hitter (i.e. Nick Swisher) if that happens this winter.
  • Girardi acknowledged that the team has a busy offseason coming but doesn’t expect the chaos to be a problem. “Sometimes quiet is a bad thing,” he joked.

On the status of him and his coaches…

  • “No. The pressure you see I put on myself,” said Girardi when asked about the pressure of entering a contract year. He doesn’t expect the team to talk about a new deal until his current one expires and he doesn’t anticipate asking for an extension before then either.
  • Girardi expects the entire coaching staff to return next year but again pointed out that the team has not yet discussed everything.

Miscellaneous…

  • Girardi praised his role players for stepping up into more prominent roles than expected this year, mentioning Raul Ibanez, David Phelps, and Cody Eppley by name.
  • When asked about Cano’s general lack of hustle down the line to first base, Girardi said he “will address with every player to play hard.”

What Went Right: Derek Jeter

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Over the next few weeks we’re going to spend some time reviewing the entire 2012 season, which featured another division title and unfortunately another disappointing playoff exit.

(REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine)

Thirty-eight-year-old shortstops are not supposed to lead the league in hits. Heck, they aren’t even supposed to be good. It’s a physically demanding position and by the time a player starts to approach 40, they usually just can’t handle it anymore. It’s a young man’s position. Coming into the 2012 season, exactly two players in baseball history age 38 or older managed to qualify for the batting title while playing at least 75% of their games at short and still be above-average offensively…

Player OPS+ Year Age Tm G PA R H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS
Honus Wagner 144 1912 38 PIT 145 634 91 181 35 20 7 59 38 26 .324 .395 .496 .891
Luke Appling 126 1947 40 CHW 139 573 67 154 29 0 8 64 28 8 .306 .386 .412 .797
Honus Wagner 126 1915 41 PIT 156 625 68 155 32 17 6 39 64 22 .274 .325 .422 .747
Luke Appling 125 1949 42 CHW 142 619 82 148 21 5 5 121 24 7 .301 .439 .394 .833
Honus Wagner 121 1916 42 PIT 123 484 45 124 15 9 1 34 36 11 .287 .350 .370 .721
Luke Appling 117 1946 39 CHW 149 659 59 180 27 5 1 71 41 6 .309 .384 .378 .762
Honus Wagner 113 1913 39 PIT 114 454 51 124 18 4 3 26 40 21 .300 .349 .385 .734
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/23/2012.

Hall of Famer Honus Wagner did it four times and Hall of Famer Luke Appling did it three times, all over 60 years ago. That’s it, that’s the list. In fact, prior to 2012, there were only 23 instances (involving just 12 players) in history of a 38-year-old qualifying for the batting title while playing primarily shortstop, regardless of offensive production. It’s an exclusive list, a list that Derek Jeter joined this season.

Jeter’s resurgence started with his calf injury in June of last season. He had hit just .267/.336/.357 from Opening Day 2010 until the date of the injury last summer, a span of 1,032 plate appearances. That’s not a small sample, and at his age, it was easy believe his Hall of Fame career was winding down. Jeter spent his rehab time working with organizational hitting coordinator Gary Denbo to iron out some mechanical issues, making adjustments that allowed him to hit .331/.384/.447 in 314 plate appearances after coming off the DL. It was the Jeter of old, not old Jeter.

That second half success carried right over into 2012. The Cap’n opened the season with a torrid April, going 37-for-95 (.389) in the team’s first 22 games. He peaked at .397/.439/.595 on May 6th and at the All-Star break it was still a robust .308/.354/.411. He started the Midsummer Classic in Kansas City not only because he’s one of the most popular players in the world, but because he absolutely deserved it based on his performance. Jeter picked up the pace after the break, going 10-for-27 (.370) in his first seven games back and hitting .325/.372/.449 in the second half overall.

(Elsa/Getty)

Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of Jeter’s season was his rebound against right-handed pitchers, who had given him a hard time the last two years and even after working with Denbo in the second half of last season. He didn’t for much power against same-side pitchers, but his .294/.346/.377 line against righties was far better than his .261/.321/.327 line against them from 2010-2011. Lefties had no chance — Jeter hit .364/.399/.542 against southpaws, a 157 wRC+ that ranked 19th in baseball. The guys ahead of him are mostly in-their-prime right-handed sluggers like Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp. The Cap’n absolutely punished lefties in 2012.

Derek finished the season with a .316/.362/.429 batting line overall in an MLB-best 740 plate appearances. Not only did he perform, but he stayed in the lineup despite nursing a left ankle problem late in the season. Jeter led the league with 216 total hits, eleven more than the second place Miguel Cabrera. Those 216 hits were just three shy of his career-high set way back in 1999, and it also set a record for the most hits by a player in his age 38 season, surpassing Pete Rose in 1979 (208). Only Paul Molitor (225 hits at age 39 in 1996) has had more hits in a season that age or older throughout baseball history.

Along the way, Jeter climbed from 21st on the all-time hit list to 11th, passing all-time greats like Dave Winfield, Tony Gwynn, Robin Yount, George Brett, Cal Ripken, Eddie Murray, and Willie Mays. Early next season, like the second or third series of the year, he should jump past Eddie Collins and into tenth place on the all-time hit list. A modest season gets him into the top-six at this time next year, but another great season will get him into the top-five all-time.

Jeter wasn’t the Yankees’ best hitter this year — Robinson Cano did hit .313/.379/.550, after all — but he was certainly their most reliable and consistent hitter. He was the guy everyone wanted to see at the plate in a big situation, and frankly I hadn’t felt that way about Derek since at least 2009, the last time he truly was a superstar-caliber hitter. That left ankle ended his season in Game One of the ALCS, a sour ending to an otherwise spectacular season. Great players do things other players can not do, which is why Jeter became the first full-time shortstop in more than 60 years to be an above-average hitter at age 38.

The five biggest outs of the 2012 season

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(Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Yesterday we looked back at the five biggest hits of the Yankees’ season using WPA, and today we’re going to flip the coin and look at the five biggest outs recorded by the pitching staff. This list may not be as sexy or dramatic as Raul Ibanez’s many mega-clutch homers, but a pitcher escaping a jam can feel pretty awesome in its own right.

June 27th: Rafael Soriano vs. Asdrubal Cabrera (WPA graph & box score) (video)
The Yankees were still very much in “destroy everything” mode come late-June, and they were on the verge of sweeping the Indians on this Wednesday afternoon. Soriano was pitching for the fourth time in five days though, and the workload started to show. Staked to a two-run lead with three outs to go, the first two hitters of the ninth inning (Lonnie Chisenhall and Shin-Soo Choo) reached base via a single and a walk to put instant pressure on the New York closer. Casey Kotchman lined out to left for the first out, but Lou Marson punched a single through the left side of the infield to load the bases. Johnny Damon pinch-hit for Aaron Cunningham, though Soriano was able to retire him with a hard-fought seven-pitch strikeout. The Yankees were one out away, but the tying run was in scoring position and the go-ahead run was on-base.

With his pitch count already up over 20, Soriano walked Michael Brantley on five pitches to force in a run and move the tying run to third. All of his pitches were missing up in the zone and he looked completely gassed. Asdrubal Cabrera, arguably Cleveland’s best hitter, stepped to the plate with a chance to not just tie the game, but give his team the lead with a base hit. Soriano started him off with another pitch up and out of the zone, but the second pitch — a 92 mph fastball — was ticketed for the outside corner until Cabrera lifted the ball out to left. Dewayne Wise caught the can of corn about 10-15 feet in front of the warning track for the final out of the game, a stress-free catch to end a stressful inning. WPA: +0.23

August 9th: Soriano vs. Detroit Tigers (WPA graph & box score) (video)
I have to cheat a little here, because three of the biggest outs of the five biggest outs of the season all came in the same inning. The Yankees were mired in their second half slide and had already lost the first two games in Detroit, but they rebounded to take the third game and the duo of Mark Teixeira and Eric Chavez put the club in position to steal game four as well. They hit back-to-back solo homers off Joaquin Benoit in the eighth inning to turn a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 lead.

(Leon Halip/Getty)

David Robertson was unavailable due to his recent workload, meaning eighth inning duties fell on the shoulders of David Phelps that afternoon. He managed to retire Miguel Cabrera with fly ball to leadoff the inning, but Prince Fielder followed with a single and eventually moved to second on a balk. After Phelps got Austin Jackson to fly out to right for the second out, Joe Girardi went to Soriano for the four-out save. He ended the inning with a Jhonny Peralta fly ball.

After the Yankees went down 1-2-3 in the top of the ninth, the bottom half got instantly messy as Alex Avila doubled down the left field line on Soriano’s second pitch of the frame. Two pitches after that, Omar Infante lined a single to right and moved pinch-runner Gerald Laird (!?) to third. The Tigers had men on the corners with no outs and the tying run was on third. The Yankees were looking at another tough loss in a stretch of games that already had way too many of them.

Rather than wilt, Soriano bore down and managed to escape the jam with the lead. Ramon Santiago slapped a little line drive right at Robinson Cano for the first out of the inning, a ball that wasn’t crushed but was hit hard enough to fall in for a hit had Robbie not been positioned perfectly. Quintin Berry worked the count to 2-2 but popped up weakly to shortstop, a harmless play for the second out. With the tying run still at third, Andy Dirks hacked at Soriano’s first pitch and flew out to shallow center to end the game. It was a huge escape job featuring three of the five biggest outs of the season to give New York a much-needed win.  WPA: +0.20 (Dirks), +0.26 (Berry), +0.20 (Santiago).

June 13th: Cody Eppley vs. Martin Prado (WPA graph & box score)
Bet you weren’t expected to see Eppley here, were you? We’re going to have to cheat again and for a slightly different reason this time: the biggest out of the season was actually two outs on the same play.

The Yankees were on the NL park leg of their interleague schedule, and they still had not yet welcomed Robertson back from his oblique strain. Cory Wade had just slipped into full meltdown mode and Clay Rapada had appeared in each of the last four games, leaving Girardi with a very short bullpen in the series finale against the Braves. Curtis Granderson’s two-run homer off Tim Hudson in the sixth inning gave the Yankees a one-run lead, and Girardi (wisely) went to Boone Logan against Atlanta’s middle of the order bats in the seventh inning.

That left a one-inning gap to bridge between Logan (24 pitches in the seventh) and Soriano in the ninth. The ball went to Eppley, who was only recalled a few weeks prior when Mariano Rivera blew out his knee. He immediately allowed a single to leadoff man Andrelton Simmons, putting the tying run on-base. Pinch-hitter Jack Wilson botched two bunt attempts but still got the job done with a weak ground ball to third, which moved Simmons to second in exchange for the out. Michael Bourn swung at the first pitch of his at-bat and singled through the left side. The Braves had men on the corners with one out and the tying run at third base.

Now, men were on the corners but they weren’t necessarily going to stay that way. Bourn is one of the game’s great base-stealers and it was a foregone conclusion that he would try to steal second and get himself, representing the go-ahead, in scoring position with less than two outs. Eppley threw over a few times but the hitter (Prado) couldn’t be ignored forever. The first pitch of the at-bat was a botched squeeze attempt that was fouled off to the first base side. The second pitch was a regular old swing and another foul ball for strike two, this one off towards third base.

Eppley was still throwing over to first and stepping off between pitches to keep Bourn close, and it paid off. The 0-2 pitch to Prado was a sinker on the outer half that he reached out and tapped to short for the tailor made 6-4-3 double play. Prado was out by at least a full step, maybe even two. The Yankees and Eppley — making just his 27th career appearance in the show — escaped the jam and Soriano went on to nail down the save in the ninth to finish off the sweep. MLB.com doesn’t have a highlight video of the double play, but don’t worry. Here’s a .gif. WPA: +0.33

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The Yankees recorded just one (really two) other out worth +0.20 WPA this season, and that was CC Sabathia getting a 5-2 double play with the bases loaded against the Blue Jays on August 29th. Kinda random, but you might remember the play because Jayson Nix made a real sweet turn at the hot corner. Here’s the video, and that play checked in at exactly +0.20 WPA.

Personally, I think the biggest out(s) of the season didn’t even register as a blip on the WPA radar. I think they were Nate McLouth and J.J. Hardy in the eighth inning of Game Five of the ALDS. The Orioles had the bases loaded with one out and the tying run in the scoring position against a tiring Sabathia, who then struck out McLouth and got Hardy to ground out to end the threat. Both outs checked in at +0.13 WPA, but c’mon. They were enormous because the season was as close to being on the line as it gets right there. If you’re going to force me to pick a regular season event, I’ll go with that Soriano inning against the Tigers. Sabathia’s outs in the ALDS Game Five were far, far more important however.

The Yankees, Cardinals, and a lesson in offense

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(Christian Petersen/Getty)

The World Series starts Wednesday night and the Yankees won’t be playing in it because of their complete inability to generate offense against the Tigers in the ALCS. They scored six runs in the four-game sweep, and four of those runs came in two-thirds of an inning against Jose Valverde. It’s still fresh in everyone’s mind so I don’t need to remind you of how ugly the series was.

The Cardinals also won’t be playing in this year’s World Series because they too just stopped hitting. They blew a three games to one lead against the Giants in the NLCS and were outscored a whopping 20-1 in the final three games. That’s despite the presence of Carlos Beltran, a .363/.470/.782 career hitter in 151 playoff plate appearances and the proud owner of the highest postseason OPS in baseball history. It’s hard to believe that their offense just evaporated.

I bring this up because the Yankees and Cardinals have more in common than their LCS exits. They each led their league in offense during the regular season (113 wRC+ for NYY and 107 for STL), but they did it in very different ways. The Yankees hit .265/.337/.453 as a team and led the world in homers (245) while the Cardinals hit .271/.338/.421 with just 159 homers. The big difference is that New York hit .262/.345/.449 with men on base while St. Louis hit .272/.345/.435 in those situations. Same OBP but less power production for the Cardinals (due in part to the pitcher hitting), but they hit for a higher average in those spots (.272 was the seventh highest team average with men on base this year). Their offense was built more on sustained rallies and getting so-called “clutch hits” whereas the Yankees just bludgeoned their opponents.

Anyway, a lot of people attribute New York’s postseason failure to their inability to score runs without the long ball and want to see them embrace a more contact-oriented approach. I don’t necessarily buy the former but I am on board with the latter to a certain extent. However, the Cardinals had a contract-oriented approach and their offense still disappeared for a stretch in the playoffs. The point I’m trying to make is that there is no magic formula for a winning offense, there’s no right or wrong. You can do everything right and hit all the homers and drive in every runner in scoring position … and it still might not matter because anything can happen in a short series. It’s not luck, it’s just the day-to-day randomness of baseball and life in general.

Tuesday Night Open Thread

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Andruw Jones was Mike Trout before it was cool to be Mike Trout. (Photo via MLB Confessions)

The 1996 Yankees will always be very special to me because that was my first championship as a fan. The 1995 team gave me my first real taste of soul-crushing defeat, and prior to that the Yankees didn’t do much contending (thanks 1994 strike!). The 1996 squad were legit underdogs against the Braves, who had a Hall of Fame rotation and were in the middle of an unprecedented run of division titles. Bobby Cox’s team mopped the floor with the Bombers in the Bronx in Games One and Two (combined score: 16-1), and I remember thinking the Yankees had basically no shot to win the series now that they were going to back to Atlanta for the next three games.

Today is the 16th anniversary of Game Four, when Jim Leyritz worked his three-run homer magic against Mark Wohlers. Based on some of Raul Ibanez’s recent work, I imagine a homer of that magnitude would have crippled Twitter these days. The Yankees went on to win in extra innings to tie the series at two, and you all know what happened next. Andy Pettitte vs. John Smoltz, Joe Girardi chugging around the bases … good times.

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Here is your open thread for this incredibly lame sports-less evening. The Giants and Tigers open the World Series tomorrow night and there’s no football on either. You’re going to have to find something else to occupy yourself with tonight. Anything but politics is fair game here, so have at it.