River Avenue Blues

Prospect Profile: Jesus Montero

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Jesus Montero

Jesus Montero | C

Background
Montero grew up in Guacara, Venezuela, not far from the capital of Caracas. He was signed by Carlos Rios, the Yankees’ director of Latin American scouting, on the first day of July 2nd international signing period in 2006 for $2M, however the deal was later negotiated down to $1.65M. Rumors popped up that Montero lied about his age, however those were eventually shot down and the reason for the bonus cutback has never been officially disclosed. For what it’s worth, Rios was fired two years later for his role in a bonus skimming scandal, in which he forced several players to kick back some bonus money.

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Andre Dawson the sole new Hall of Famer

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No Roberto Alomar, no Barry Larkin. But Andre Dawson got into the Hall of Fame today, receiving 77.9 percent of the votes. So congratulations to him on the ultimate achievement. Bert Blyleven fans have reason to be optimistic, as he received 74.2 percent of the vote. If those five writers who submitted blank ballots had voted for Bert, he’d have been in. It sounds like next year is a strong possibility.

Also of note, Alomar got 73.7 percent, so he should be in next year. Jack Morris received 52.3 percent, Barry Larking got 51.6 percent, Lee Smith got 47.3 percent, and Edgar Martinez got 32.5 percent. Don Mattingly continues his pursuit with just 16.1 percent of the ballot. Sorry, Donnie, but there is no HOF in your future.

Yanks, Mitre avoid arbitration

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Via Jerry Crasnick, the Yankees and righthander Sergio Mitre agreed to a one year contract worth $850,000, avoiding arbitration. The deal also includes some performance incentives. The Yanks declined Mitre’s $1.25M option back in November with the idea of signing him to a cheaper deal, and obviously it worked. He’s out of options, so he would have to clear waivers to be assigned to the minors.

Mitre was pretty terrible with the Yankees (6.79 ERA, 5.30 FIP), but it’s a good low risk deal. Very easy to back out of, and if nothing else he’ll be a decent innings eating mop up guy. Chad Gaudin is the team’s only remaining arbitration eligible player.

Bench empties as Hinske lands in Atlanta

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The Braves signed a former Yankee outfielder late last night, but it wasn’t Johnny Damon, the one we half-expect them to land. Instead, Atlanta signed Eric Hinske to a one-year deal. The utility player will serve as a bench player and pinch-hitter for the Braves.

Hinske came to the Yankees in mid-2009 in a deal that sent Casey Erickson and Eric Fryer to the Pirates. While with the Yanks, he hit .226/.316/.512 with seven home runs in 98 plate appearances. In the postseason, he made just one appearance and walked during the World Series. He also inspired one of the all-time best Beyond the Box Score posts.

Generally, we would consider this a minor Hot Stove move, but it has some interesting ramifications for the 2010 Yankees. Earlier this off-season, we had heard that Hinske was interested in playing with Japan, and for a brief second, it sounded as though the Yankees were interested in bringing him back as a bench player. While atrocious in the field, Hinske provided the team with some much-needed pop off the bench. Clearly, though, the Yankees were willing to let him walk.

On a grander scheme, then, Hinske’s departure highlights a current problem with the Yankees. Their bench as it stands right now is really bad. Those not starting include Francisco Cervelli, Jamie Hoffmann and Ramiro Peña. Jerry Hairston is a free agent, and outside of Juan Miranda — deadly against righties, deathly against lefties — the Yanks have no obvious in-house options for their remaining bench spots.

Over the last few years, we’ve seen Brian Cashman mold and reshape his bench over the course of the baseball season, and this year is shaping up to be no exception. Reupping with Hairston is no sure thing as the Padres seem to have their sights set on him, and the list of remaining free agents feature some intriguing bats who will probably cost too much money.

To start the year, the Yanks will probably issue a bunch of Spring Training invites and hope that they can catch lightning in a bottle for a few months. With All Stars at nearly every position, that is right now the best we can hope for unless the Yankees are willing to overpay some role players, and that the team will not do.

Cashman: ‘Our team is, for the most part, set’

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The headline is what Brian Cashman said to The Record’s Pete Caldera. But Cashman didn’t leave it at that. He got a bit more specific about the teams plans.

On left field: “We have a left fielder. We do like Brett Gardner.”
On any further acquisitions: “We’re just playing with the bench right now.”

Though there’s no quote for it, Caldera notes that the team is not quite done: “Cashman acknowledged that he’s searching for a right-handed hitter.” That would seemingly take Johnny Damon out of play, but I’ll drop the never say never cliche with that. It seems more and more likely that the Yankees will sign, or attempt to sign, Reed Johnson.

Remembering Randy

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The Big Unit

Over 21 years ago, a tall and lanky lefthander from Northern California with a University of Southern California education made his Major League debut as a member of the now defunct Montreal Expos, throwing five innings of two run ball against the Pirates to earn his first Major League win. The next season he made 28 starts and walked 96 batters in 160.2 innings, getting traded to Seattle in the process. He would go on to lead the big leagues in walks in 1990 (120 BB), 1991 (152), and 1992 (140), and it wasn’t until his age-29 season that he broke through and established himself as an elite starting pitcher.

That pitcher walked away from the game yesterday, having led the league in strikeouts nine times and being named the Cy Young Award winner five times. He would finish in the top three of the voting on four other occasions. Randy Johnson hangs ’em up as one of the game’s very best, though his time in New York is largely remembered as a disappointment.

George Steinbrenner had long desired to bring The Big Unit to the Bronx, and he made no secret of it. “God, who wouldn’t love to have Randy Johnson?” Steinbrenner told ESPN Radio in 2004. “He’s a dominator and we’d love to have him. Anybody would love to have him.” The Boss’ wish came true following the ’04 season, when he masterminded a deal that sent Javy Vazquez plus two prospects and cash to Arizona for Johnson. Before he even had a chance to put on his jersey during the introductory press conference, the team gave Johnson a two-year contract extension worth $32M, and he responded by roughing up a CBS cameraman on a midtown sidewalk.

Expectations were high heading into 2005, after all Johnson was coming off a season in which he struck out 290 and allowed just 221 baserunners in 245.2 innings. Unfortunately, Randy was rather ordinary out of the gate. After allowing one run in six innings to earn the win against the Red Sox on Opening Day, Johnson posted a 4.39 ERA and a .751 OPS against in his next 16 starts. His record stood at 6-6 on July 1st, and he had lost a full mile an hour off his fastball from the year before.

Johnson settled in and was very good down the stretch, pitching to a 3.32 ERA with a .648 OPS against in his final 17 starts. The Yankees won five of his six starts against Boston, which proved to be the difference in the AL East race. The two clubs finished with identical 95-67 records, but the Yanks were crowned division champs because they had won the season series 10-9.

Lined up to start Game Three of the ALDS against the Angels, Johnson lasted just three innings and allowed five runs as the Yanks got creamed on their own turf. By the time he came out of the bullpen in relief of Mike Mussina in Game Five, the Yankees’ fate was all but sealed. RJ had been the team’s best starter by a considerable margin all season, however the blame for their early playoff exit was hoisted squarely onto his shoulders.

Heading into the 2006 season, many expected big things out of The Big Unit since he had a season to acclimate himself to New York under his belt. “I think it will be more comfortable for him,” said manager Joe Torre. “I think that’s been from Spring Training all the way through. It’s been less hectic than last year.”

Johnson dominated the A’s on Opening Day, though his ERA stood at 5.25 on July 1st. He lost even more giddy-up off his fastball and battled lower back soreness the rest of the season, though it wasn’t until the end of the year that he decided to get it checked out. It was revealed that Johnson had a herniated disc in his back, and he needed an epidural before being cleared to take the mound in the ALDS. Against the Tigers, Johnson tossed another postseason dud in pinstripes, allowing five runs in just over five innings in Game Three as the Yanks were again sent home prematurely.

At 43-years-old and with a bad back, GM Brian Cashman traded Johnson back to the Diamondbacks for a reliever and three prospects after the 2006 campaign. In two years with the Yankees, Randy had a more than respectable 34-19 record with a 4.39 ERA, though his 6.92 ERA in three postseason appearances remain his Yankee legacy. His time in pinstripes had no effect on his status as a future first ballot Hall of Famer, though he’s viewed as just another mercenary – a grumpy mercenary, nonetheless – that failed to do the job he was brought in to do. He failed not because he was soft or because he didn’t care, but because he was unable to maintain his historical dominance into his 40’s.

Unfortunately for Yankee fans, Johnson will perhaps be better remembered for the damage he did against the Yanks than he did for them. He allowed just five hits in ten innings against the Bombers during the 1995 ALDS, winning Game Three before coming out of the bullpen to win the deciding Game Five. During the 2001 World Series, he beat the Yanks in Games Two, Six, and Seven, clinching the World Championship in relief after throwing seven innings the night before.

Randy Johnson announced his retirement from baseball last night, and it closed the book on perhaps the most dominant starting pitching career we’ll ever see. He retired with 739 more strikeouts than any other lefthanded pitcher in the history of baseball, and his career mark of 10.61 strikeouts per nine innings is the best by any pitcher ever. He’s the oldest pitcher in history to throw a perfect game (40), and this past season he joined the exclusive 300 win club.

The Big Unit may have been a big disappointment in New York because of his failure to deliver a World Championship, but the game said goodbye to one of it’s all-time greats yesterday.

Photo Credit: Tony Gutierrez, AP

How many homers would Johnny Damon hit in other ballparks?

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One line we’ve parroted this off-season is that Johnny Damon is more valuable to the Yankees than any other team because his plate skills align well with Yankee Stadium. With the shorter porch in right, Damon can turn what would be fly balls in other parks into home runs. Yet it’s tough to determine just how many of his home runs would have stayed in other parks. That is, until the Ballpark Overlay Tool. Using this and Hit Tracker, we can see how the same hits would have landed in other home ballparks.

The tool is quite basic. It’s a 1.2MB Photoshop file consisting of 31 layers. The first 30 represent the dimensions of each major league ballpark. The last is for our manipulation. By going to a player’s home run chart on Hit Tracker, we can paste the image onto that 31st layer, unhide the layer of the appropriate ballpark, and make our observations. So let’s look at Damon’s 2009 home runs from the perspective of Turner Field and AT&T Park, homes of the Braves and Giants, two potential Damon suitors.

Damon at Turner Field:

Damon at AT&T Park:

It looks like at least seven of Damon’s Yankee Stadium home runs would have stayed in the park at Turner, and six would have stayed in at AT&T — though there are four home runs on the borderline. So, while Damon still would have hit a healthy number of home runs at AT&T Park and Turner field, there would certainly be a drop-off, especially on the home runs towards right-center. That’s where he took the greatest advantage of Yankee Stadium.

Of course, things change from year to year, and in Damon’s case, so would the pitchers. This in no way means that Johnny will hit six or seven fewer home runs at home if he signs with the Braves or Giants. Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley explains in the comments on Capitol Avenue Club:

I think it should be noted, however (NERD ALERT!), that in using this for analysis one can’t just say, “X amount of Player’s homers in Old Ballpark would not have been homers in New Ballpark, so he should be expected to hit X less home runs.”

Albert Pujols, one of the most consistent power hitters in the game, has a standard deviation of 6 HR per season with an average of 41. That means that roughly 68% of the time, we expect Pujols to hit between 35-47 HR, and 29-53 HR 95% of the time. So, if he was moving to Seattle, we could point out that X amount of his HR wouldn’t have cleared the fence at Safeco, but he would have to have hit a lot of cheapies for it to affect our analysis of his power output.

This overlay analysis requires one to effectively chop the available sample size in half, which certainly raises the uncertainty level, especially with younger players.

The post’s author goes on to note other factors which would affect a player’s home run totals in other ballparks, including wind and fence height. There’s also the issue of long fly balls that stay inside larger ballparks but would fly out of others. I’m not so sure that makes a big difference in Damon’s case. I don’t remember him smashing balls the opposite way very often, and it’s in left-center that Yankee Stadium is at its most spacious.

Still, it’s an interesting tool that can help us better understand how a ballpark factors into a player’s performance. It leaves many questions unanswered — in addition to those above, the question of whether Damon shoots for the fence at YS remains a mystery — but I think it makes pretty clear that Damon’s power at other home ballparks just wouldn’t be the same as in Yankee Stadium. That factor, perhaps, is the leading reason for Damon’s return to the Bronx.

Glove slap to Tango for the link.

If you want to play with the tool, you’ll need either Adobe Photoshop or GIMP. You can then download the Ballpark Overlay Tool. Once you open it up, head to Hit Tracker and find a player. Right click on his home run chart and select Copy Image. Paste that into the Player layer and unhide the ballpark you want to examine. It’s a damn entertaining tool, I must say.

Update: Commenter JGS asked that I overlay Damon’s home runs over Yankee Stadium, and I’m glad he did.

Hmm…I guess there’s a reason that the Ballpark Overlay Tool is still in beta testing.