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Yankees trade Jake Cave to Twins for minor league righty

March 16, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The Yankees have traded Jake Cave to the Twins for minor league right-hander Luis Gil, the team announced. Cave was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Neil Walker earlier this week. Twins executive Derek Falvey told Phil Miller they originally asked about Cave during Jaime Garcia trade talks last year.

Cave, 25, hit .305/.351/.542 (145 wRC+) with 20 home runs in 437 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A last season. He started selling out for power last year — his previous career high was eight home runs — after his old slash-and-dash approach wasn’t getting him anywhere. I ranked Cave as the 23rd best prospect in the system a few weeks ago.

The 19-year-old Gil does not rank among Minnesota’s top 30 prospects, according to MLB.com. He spent last season in the Dominican Summer League, throwing 41.2 innings with a 2.59 ERA (3.34 FIP). This is similar to the Nick Rumbelow trade. The Yankees got Juan Then, another DSL pitcher, in that deal. They’re trying to get a young prospect before he really breaks out.

The Yankees are quite deep in outfielders, even with Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique) and Clint Frazier (concussion) sidelined. Billy McKinney is Triple-A depth and of course the Yankees have Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Giancarlo Stanton at the MLB level. Cave was the odd man out.

Revisiting the MLBTR Archives: March 2013

March 16, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Now that we’re a few weeks into March, this is as good a time as any to revisit the MLB Trade Rumors archives. March is typically a slow hot stove month, or at least it was prior to this offseason given the number of free agents who remain unsigned. I get the sense this is the new normal too. Back in the day all the top (and second and third and fourth) tier free agent would be signed by now.

The Yankees were unusually active in March 2013. Curtis Granderson’s forearm was broken by an errant pitch in his first Spring Training at-bat and the Yankees were still trying to find the right mix for the bench. The injuries continued to mount in March and that sent Brian Cashman into scramble mode. He was busy in March 2013. Time to look back at the rumors and deals of five years ago.

March 3rd, 2013: Cafardo On Red Sox, Vazquez, Stanton, Cano

The Red Sox, Nationals, Yankees, Orioles, and Brewers had major interest in free agent pitcher Javier Vazquez before knee surgery put his season in jeopardy. “Never say never,” said a major league source close to the hurler, “but we won’t see him in the immediate future.”

Oh man. A third Javy Vazquez stint in New York? Can’t imagine that would’ve gone well. Vazquez was pretty good for the Marlins in 2011 (3.69 ERA and 3.57 FIP), though he missed the 2012 season with injuries, then showcased himself in winter ball. His knee started acting up again and that was that. Vazquez never pitched again. Imagine if Cashman had brought Javy back again? That would’ve gone over well.

March 4th, 2013: East Notes: Cashman, Ohman, Kendrick, Yanks

The Yankees announced today that general manager Brian Cashman broke his right fibula and dislocated his right ankle on the landing of a tandem skydive. Cashman was skydiving with the U.S. Army Golden Knights to raise awareness for the Wounded Warrior Project.

“I’m in great spirits, and it was an awesome experience,” Cashman was quoted as saying in the press release.

Heh, remember this? Cashman is definitely a bit of a daredevil. Rappelling down buildings, jumping out of planes, considering bringing Javy Vazquez back for a third tour of duty in pinstripes … the man is a thrill-seeker if nothing else.

March 4th, 2013: East Notes: Cashman, Ohman, Kendrick, Yanks

The Yankees are very likely to receive their worst offensive output from the catcher position since before Jorge Posada emerged in the late-90s, writes Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues. The Bombers decided against acquiring a standout backstop this offseason and will pull from a group consisting of Chris Stewart, Francisco Cervelli, and Austin Romine.

Every once in a while that idiot Axisa gets something right. The worst offensive seasons by Yankees’ catchers since 1990:

2013: 70 OPS+
2008: 75 OPS+
1997: 86 OPS+
1990: 91 OPS+
1999: 92 OPS+

Good gravy the Chris Stewart/Francisco Cervelli/Austin Romine season behind the plate was so bad. So, so bad. If you ever feel like complaining about Gary Sanchez, remember the 2013 catching situation. It’s tied with the 1987 team for the worst offensive season by Yankees’ catchers in franchise history.

March 6th, 2013: Yankees To Consider Corner Infielders

Mark Teixeira has a strained right wrist and will miss eight to ten weeks, according to Yankees manager Joe Girardi (via Jack Curry of the YES Network on Twitter). The Yankees will look at first basemen and third basemen when considering possible replacements, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports (Twitter links). Kevin Youkilis’ versatility will enable the club to explore options at both corner positions.

Teixeira blew out his wrist taking batting practice with Team USA before the start of the World Baseball Classic, though it took a while before the wrist gave out for good. He received treatment and cortisone shots and all that, and eventually returned to the field in May. Fifteen games later, Teixeira needed season-ending surgery. The injury was described as a wear-and-tear injury, the type of injury that was going to happen eventually no matter whether he was with the Yankees or Team USA, but because the injury happened at the World Baseball Classic, MLB covered a large portion of Teixeira’s salary while he was on the disabled list. Lucky for the Yankees, I guess.

March 9th, 2013: Rivera To Retire After 2013 Season

SATURDAY, 9:57am: Rivera made the news official with a press conference this morning. The 43-year-old told reporters that he has enough left in the tank for this upcoming season but after that he’ll have “nothing left”, tweets Jack Curry of the YES Network.

Mariano Rivera later admitted he was planning to retire following the 2012 season — that was going to be an unannounced retirement, Mo was going to drop it on everyone after the season — but the season-ending knee injury led to him coming back in 2013. If Rivera had never announced his plan to retire in advance, we never would’ve gotten to see this …

… and that would’ve sucked.

March 10th, 2013: Cafardo On Yankees, Headley, Red Sox, Lohse

The Yankees have explored temporary options to fill-in for the injured Mark Teixeira but they have also looked into more significant moves. The Bombers have inquired on the Padres‘ Chase Headley, though we learned recently that he’s not available at this time. However, Headley could be on the market this summer.

Aside from all the blast from the past names, my favorite thing about these MLBTR Archive posts is seeing just how long the Yankees pursue certain players before actually acquiring them. This report is from March 2013. It wasn’t until July 2014 that the Yankees acquired Headley. The Padres should’ve traded him sooner too. Headley hit .286/.376/.498 (145 wRC+) with 31 homers in 2012 and the team stunk. Instead, they kept him and wound up settling for Yangervis Solarte and a pitching prospect who never made it. I mean, Solarte’s a nice player, but that’s it? That’s it.

March 10th, 2013: AL Notes: Lee, Porcello, Red Sox

The Yankees, who are hunting for a corner infielder to replace the injured Mark Teixeira, have asked Derrek Lee if he would be interested in returning to baseball, David Waldstein of the New York Times reports. Waldstein reports that Lee did show interest, although no deal is in place.

You know things are going poorly when you’re trying to drag dudes out of retirement to play first base. Lee hit .267/.325/.446 (109 wRC+) with the Orioles and Pirates in 2012 — that includes a .337/.398/.584 (179 wRC+) line in 28 games with Pittsburgh late in the season — but he hung up his spikes after the season and had no interest in joining the Yankees. Given how the 2013 season played out, I’m guessing Lee doesn’t regret that decision.

March 11th, 2013: Cashman Eyeing Derrek Lee, Chipper Jones, Rolen

Cashman said he’d sign Chipper Jones if the third baseman were willing to come out of retirement, Sherman reports. The GM said his interest in Jones was serious and that he intended to call his agent, Curry notes. However, B.B. Abbott told Sherman that he can’t see his client coming out of retirement. “I don’t think [playing for the Yankees] is something he would consider, but he would be flattered,” Abbott said.
Cashman also investigated the possibility of signing free agent third baseman Scott Rolen, Curry reports. The GM hinted that Rolen wants a guarantee of playing time and/or money, however.

Like I said, the Yankees resorted to trying to drag guys out of retirement following Teixeira’s injury. Chipper was a monster in 2012 though. Dude hit .287/.377/.455 (127 wRC+) with 14 homers and more walks (57) than strikeouts (51) that year. If 41-year-old Chipper Jones was willing to come out of retirement to play for the Yankees, I would’ve been all for it. That was the case at the time too. I was totally cool with signing Chipper.

As for Rolen, he was coming off a .245/.318/.398 (94 wRC+) batting line with eight homers for the 2012 Reds. He could still play the hell out of third base, but he was starting to show his age (38 at the time) at the plate, and reaching out to Rolen tells you exactly how desperate the Yankees were after Teixeira’s injury. They were in bad shape.

March 11th, 2013: Yankees Sign Ben Francisco

The Yankees have signed outfielder Ben Francisco, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (on Twitter). The Indians released the John Boggs client earlier today, making him a free agent.

That’s Opening Day DH Ben Francisco to you. The Yankees had been looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder to complement their all-lefty outfield (Granderson, Brett Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki) all offseason, and it wasn’t until March that they settled on Francisco. He’d hit .247/.315/.408 (97 wRC+) against lefties the prior three seasons, so it wasn’t even like he was a bonafide lefty masher. Francisco was the DH against Jon Lester on Opening Day. Sheesh. He hit .114/.220/.182 (14 wRC+) in 21 games with the Yankees in 2013 and was released in June. He spent 2014 in an independent league and 2015 in Mexico, and that’s that. Francisco’s been out of baseball since.

March 16th, 2013: Yankees Sign Brennan Boesch

SATURDAY: Yanks General Manager Brian Cashman says that Boesch is on a split contract and will earn $1.5MM in the majors and $500K if he’s in the minors, according to Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (on Twitter).

I remember lots of folks getting irrationally excited about the Boesch signing. He was reasonably young (28) and had some nice years with the Tigers, so yeah, why not get excited? Boesch rode the Triple-A shuttle much of the season and hit .275/.302/.529 (125 wRC+) with three homers in 23 games for the Yankees. I remember wanting the Yankees to give him more playing time once it was clear Granderson would miss considerable time with his forearm injury. Then again, if they’d done that, Boesch’s numbers would’ve gone south quick. He was active as recently as 2016, you know.

March 22nd, 2013: Yankees Agree To Terms With Chien-Ming Wang

The Yankees have agreed to terms with Chien-Ming Wang, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports (Twitter link). Wang is represented by Alan Chang of the Octagon Agency.

The return of Chien-Ming Wang was one of the more fun storylines of 2013, even though he never did reach the Bronx. He looked pretty good in the 2013 World Baseball Classic after all those injuries …

… so the Yankees brought him back on a minor league contract. Wang spent most of the summer with Triple-A Scranton, throwing 58 innings with a 2.33 ERA (3.36 FIP) before opting out of his contract to sign with the Blue Jays. He made six starts for them and was awful (7.67 ERA and 5.42 FIP). Wang pitched in the big leagues as recently as 2016 — he had a 4.22 ERA (4.61 FIP) in 53.1 long relief innings with the Royals — and he is currently in camp with the Yankees “learning how to coach.”

March 25th, 2013: Quick Hits: Expos, Vlad, Indians, Betancourt, Ankiel

The Yankees had preliminary discussions with Yuniesky Betancourt on Sunday but don’t see a fit, Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger reports (via Twitter).

Oy vey. I guess the Yankees would’ve played Betancourt at third base and Youkilis at first base after Teixeira’s injury? He was so bad though. Betancourt hit .228/.256/.400 (73 wRC+) with the Royals in 2012. He hooked on with the Brewers and hit .212/.240/.355 (54 wRC+) 2013. Geez. He was still active in Mexico last season, hitting .270/.295/.319 in 50 games. Somehow Betancourt got 4,278 plate appearances in the big leagues despite a career .285 OBP.

March 26th, 2013: Yankees Claim Dan Otero

The Yankees claimed righty reliever Dan Otero off waivers from the Giants, tweets Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com.

The waiver claim who got away. The Yankees claimed Otero off waivers on March 26th and lost him on waivers to the Athletics on March 27th. True story. Since then, Otero has a 2.79 ERA (3.15 FIP) in 303 relief innings. That works out to +6 WAR. Not too shabby for a middle reliever. Alas. Otero was a Yankee for one whole day.

March 26th, 2013: Yankees Acquire Vernon Wells

A player with a supposedly untradeable contract has been dealt for a second time, as the Yankees acquired outfielder Vernon Wells from the Angels on a salary dump deal. The trade was announced officially today, and the Halos received a couple of token minor leaguers in outfielder Exicardo Cayones and lefty reliever Kramer Sneed. The big benefit for the Angels was salary relief, as the Yankees will reportedly assume a surprising $13.9MM of the $42MM owed to Wells for 2013-14, of which they’ll pay $11.5MM this year to avoid a luxury tax hit in 2014.

I forgot that, as part of trades, teams could structure salary payments in such a way that they reduce the luxury tax hit in specific years. That could come in handy come trade deadline time, though the Yankees appear to have plenty of payroll space under the $197M luxury tax threshold.

Anyway, yeah, so begins the Vernon Wells era. The desperate at hell Yankees took Wells from the Angels because Granderson was injured and they needed another bat, and because the Yankees had some luck squeezing value out of seemingly over-the-hill veterans in the previous seasons. Sure enough, Wells hit .300/.366/.544 (150 wRC+) with six homers in April. He even played a little third base.

Big Vern hit the skids after that, hitting .216/.258/.296 (49 wRC+) in 357 plate appearances from May 1st through the end of the season. Desperate team makes desperate trade.

March 26th, 2013: Yankees Sign Lyle Overbay

The Yankees signed first baseman Lyle Overbay to a minor league deal, tweets Erik Boland of Newsday. Overbay was released this morning by the rival Red Sox, who avoided a $100K retention bonus in the process.

The dumpster diving continues. What’s worse, that the Yankees resorted to playing Overbay in right field at one point in 2013, or that it was totally the right move at the time given the available? Overbay hit .240/.295/.393 (87 wRC+) with 14 homers in 142 games that season — Overbay played 142 games for the Yankees in 2013? eek — but I do remember him having some big hits in the first half, which created this weird “the Yankees are better off with Overbay than Teixeira” narrative. People say weird things sometimes.

March 26th, 2013: Yankees Release David Adams

The Yankees have released infielder David Adams to make space on the team’s 40-man roster for Vernon Wells, tweets Sweeny Murti of WFAN. Adams, 25, spent last season in Double-A, where he hit .306/.385/.450 over 383 plate appearances.

Many Yankees fans were Mad Online when they released Adams, who was once one of the better prospects in the farm system, but had been slowed by injuries. Most notably, he caught a spike sliding into second base in 2010 and suffered a very serious ankle injury. Broken bones, torn ligaments, the works. That injury is what the Mariners used to back out of the Cliff Lee trade at the 2010 trade deadline. They claimed they didn’t like Adams’ medicals. Whatever.

Anyway, the Yankees released Adams to make room on the 40-man roster for Wells, people screamed from the mountaintops, then the Yankees re-signed Adams to a minor league deal three days later. Adams played 43 games for the Yankees in 2013, hitting .193/.252/.286 (46 wRC+). I do not remember that at all. He was active as a player as recently as 2016, in Triple-A with the Blue Jays. Robert Pimpsner reports Adams will manage one of the Yankees’ two Gulf Coast League affiliates this summer. How about that?

March 27th, 2013: Yankees Claim Sam Demel, DFA Dan Otero

The Yankees announced that they have claimed pitcher Sam Demel off of waivers from the Astros. To make room for Demel on the 40-man roster, the club designated fellow right-hander Danny Otero for assignment.

Demel spent the entire 2013 season with Triple-A Scranton, throwing 52.1 innings with a 1.72 ERA (2.96 FIP). He became a minor league free agent after the season and signed with the Dodgers. Demel’s been out of baseball since 2014. The Yankees claimed one reliever off waivers, lost him on waivers to claim another reliever off waivers the next day, and somehow lost the trade.

March 29th, 2013: Yankees Designate David Aardsma

The Yankees have designated David Aardsma for assignment, according to Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger (on Twitter). The Bombers felt that the right-hander couldn’t really provide them distance out of the bullpen and manager Joe Girardi said that he “didn’t really fit” on the roster.

The Yankees spent all that time rehabbing Aardsma from Tommy John surgery in 2012, all to have him throw one inning as a September call-up. You win some and you lose some. Aardsma eventually signed with the Marlins and spend the next few seasons bouncing around Triple-A as an up-and-down guy. He was working in the Blue Jays’ front office, last I heard.

March 31st, 2013: Yankees Designate Clay Rapada For Assignment

The Yankees have designated left-hander Clay Rapada for assignment to clear a spot for Lyle Overbay, tweets MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. Rapada is out of options. The Yankees now have ten days to trade, release, or outright him to the minors.

LOOGYs, man. Rapada was a stud for the Yankees in 2012, throwing 38.1 innings with a 2.82 ERA (3.20 FIP), and holding lefties to a .183/.263/.255 (.238 wOBA) line with 28.7% strikeouts. Then he hurt his shoulder in Spring Training 2013 and that was it. The Yankees dumped him. Such is the life of a left-on-left matchup guy. Rapada threw two innings for the Indians in 2013 but otherwise bounced around Triple-A from 2013-15. He retired after pitching for the Philippines in the World Baseball Classic qualifying round late in 2016. Never get attached to LOOGYs, folks. They’ll break your heart.

Crafty veteran CC Sabathia and the Andy Pettitte formula [2018 Season Preview]

March 16, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

Most people will tell you that Andy Pettitte retired in 2013. That he is about to make his first appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot after this season.

But what if I tell you that he didn’t retire and simply continues to pitch in the Yankees’ rotation, making one crafty cutter-filled start after the next? Pretty much, that’s what CC Sabathia has provided since Pettitte actually retired.

Now 37 years old, Sabathia doesn’t have nearly the stuff with which he began his Yankees tenure. But in his 10th year in the Bronx, that likely won’t make much of a difference as the CC-renaissance enters its fourth season. Let’s get into what he brings to the table.

The Projection Systems

2017 Season: 148.2 IP, 7.26 K/9, 3.03 BB/9, 3.69 ERA, 4.49 FIP

2018 Steamer: 138.0 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 4.70 ERA, 4.80 FIP
ZiPS: 131.2 IP, 7.31 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 4.37 ERA, 4.52 FIP
PECOTA: 159.2 IP, 7.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 4.86 ERA, 5.27 DRA

A 37-year-old pitcher just a couple years removed from a run of poor seasons? Sounds like a recipe for someone who won’t project well. Beyond that, he benefited from a career-best strand rate and outpitched his peripherals last season.

What the systems don’t account for is Sabathia’s potential to sustain weak contact. He also could sustain some of his strand rate simply from having top-notch relievers replace him when he runs into trouble. However, with his knee issues and his lower velocity, a drop off in performance certainly could be in the cards.

The crafty lefty formula

When Sabathia was an objectively bad pitcher a few years ago, it’s because he wasn’t fully living up to the title. He wasn’t pitching so much as throwing, admitting that he didn’t focus on sequencing while trying to rely on his stuff.

For the last 2.5 years, the veteran southpaw has taken a page from his old buddy Pettitte and changed up his style. He has traded in a low-90s four-seam fastball that was getting smoked for a 91-mph cutter to go with a low-90s sinker. His devastating slider is still there and still is used to back-foot righties and move away from lefties. Beyond that, he uses his changeup to backdoor righties and it’s been effective in that way.

It’s impressively similar to what Pettitte was doing after his last comeback to New York. Take a look at how Sabathia used his cutter/four-seamer in 2017 vs. how Pettitte used his cutter in 2012-13: CC is on the left and Andy is on the right.

And here’s their sliders: CC keeps his slider a little bit more away against righties while Pettitte goes inside on righties, away from lefties.

And here’s Sabathia’s changeup vs. Pettitte’s curveball:

Really similar ways to attack hitters even if they aren’t the exact same heat maps. Pettitte used the cutter to backdoor hitters a little more and Sabathia is more committed to keeping his non-sinking fastballs up and in. But still, a lot of cutters in on the hands, sliders away and some offspeed pitches, whether it’s Pettitte’s slider/curve or Sabathia’s changeup, as a backdoor pitch.

Sabathia’s sinker has been a real worm killer, leading to his best ever GB/FB ratio (1.79) and a near 50 percent groundball rate. He keeps the sinker away from righties, and it’s the only fastball he uses low in the zone.

According to Fangraph’s pitch values, CC had a productive changeup for the first time since 2012 and had his best cutter yet. His slider wasn’t as good as 2011, but it’s been a productive pitch outside of 2014-15.

Knee and other concerns

All that sounds great, right? Here’s the wet blanket for the Sabathia hype. His right knee issue isn’t going away, even with a brace that has helped keep things in check (Thanks, Carlos Beltran!). After his career, he’s going to need knee-replacement surgery, but that can wait until after his career is over.

Last season, he missed 20 games with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain in June before being out for just a day more than the minimum 10 days with a right knee injury.

He lost time in 2013 with a strained hamstring as well and missed most of 2014 and 17 days in 2015 with right knee issues, so both are re-occurring to some extent. He also went on the DL for a little while in 2016 with a left groin issue.

This spring, he suffered a small ankle sprain, but it hasn’t affected him during a solid Grapefruit League showing. He came to camp with a better physique after going vegan for a period this offseason, so that could potentially help him avoid some health issues.

My take

While it’s unlikely CC will provide a full complement of 33-34 starts due to some nagging lower-body injury to be determined, he has the formula to be successful in 150-175 innings. He’s had 27-30 starts and 148.2 to 179.2 innings in the last three years. You add in his 19 playoff innings and he still threw 167 2/3 last year, an impressive number considering.

Even though the team will half to fill in 5-10 starts from other sources, Sabathia should be a great value at $10 million. If he can keep this up, he’s a guy you want at the back-end of a playoff rotation and along for another one-year deal next offseason.

Mailbag: Moustakas, Sanchez, Drury, Torreyes, Thairo, Murphy

March 16, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Got a dozen questions in this week’s mailbag. Only one more of these before Opening Day. Hooray for that. RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is the mailbag email address.

Many asked: Why didn’t the Yankees sign Mike Moustakas at that price?

Moustakas re-signed with the Royals last Thursday night, after I wrote last week’s mailbag, so these questions didn’t make it into the mailbag. Anyway, I would rather have Moustakas than Brandon Drury, yes, but that was never really an option for the Yankees. The Drury trade was a month ago now and there was no real indication Moustakas would sign such a small contract at that time.

I get the feeling Moustakas was willing to take (a little) less to return to the Royals. He’s been playing in Kansas City for seven years now, he’s presumably put down some roots there, and his wife recently gave birth. To him and his family, the comfort of staying in Kansas City may’ve been worth passing on a little more cash to sign elsewhere. Besides, give me Neil Walker at $4M over Moustakas at $6.5M plus two draft picks and $1M in international bonus money eight days a week and twice on Sundays.

Craig asks: After seeing the contract that Mike Moustakas signed with the Royals … What would Bryan Mitchell have to do for the Headley trade not to be an awful decision for the Padres?

Given how the free agent market played out, how good does the Chase Headley salary dump look? Moustakas got $6.5M and Walker got $4M. The Yankees unloaded Chase Headley’s entire $13M salary simply by attaching Mitchell to him in the trade, and Mitchell was probably going to get dropped from the 40-man roster at some point over the winter. At the end of the day, it’s just money, and Headley’s not going to cripple the Padres. The Yankees are trying to get under the luxury tax threshold though, and getting rid of Headley’s salary was pretty important.

San Diego really likes Mitchell, obviously. If he pitches to his ZiPS projection (3.79 ERA and 3.58 FIP), they’ll be thrilled. It would make eating $13M worth it. It’d be worth it even if Mitchell is league average. Buying a 26-year-old league average starter for $13M bucks is a deal most teams would make. For the Yankees, it was worth dumping Headley to create room under the luxury tax threshold to do other things, especially since Mitchell was on the 40-man chopping block. For the Padres, taking on $13M to get Mitchell is a gamble worth taking. It’s not like Headley’s salary is stopping them from doing something else (see: Hosmer, Eric).

Stephen asks: Do you think that days against a lefty starter would be an opportune time to give El Gary a break from behind the plate, test one of the Big Guys in left, and experiment with Hicks at leadoff? It’s kind of a three for one question. Now they just need a backup catcher who can hit in the vicinity league average to complete the plan! Thanks.

That definitely seems possible. The Yankees are reportedly planning to give Brett Gardner more rest against left-handed pitchers this year, pushing Giancarlo Stanton (or Aaron Judge) into left field and opening up the DH spot for Gary Sanchez. Brian Cashman mentioned this exact scenario during a radio appearance a few weeks ago. From Bryan Hoch:

“I’ve used this as an example,” Cashman said Tuesday during an appearance on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. “If we’re in Fenway Park and happen to face Chris Sale, maybe it’s the day [Austin] Romine is catching and Gary Sanchez is the DH. Maybe it’s Stanton in left, Hicks in center and Judge in right.

“It gives us a better matchup every which way and a deeper lineup to compete against one of the best starters in the game, in a small ballpark, especially on the left-field side. I think it’s going to depend on matchups, ballparks, the outfield size, as well as the comfort level as we close the gap on the knowledge of the new acquisition [in Stanton].”

Romine has historically been better against lefties than righties — we’re talking about a career 63 wRC+ against lefties and a career 46 wRC+ against righties, so don’t get too excited — and he’s going to have to play sometime, so it makes sense to play him against southpaws. Keeping Gary in the lineup against lefties is desirable as well, so freeing up that DH works well. And Aaron Hicks is the obvious guy to step into the leadoff spot whenever Gardner sits. So, long story short, yeah, this could definitely happen.

David asks: With all the value being placed on position flexibility, why is Drury only seeing time at 3rd? I understand that 3rd is the position of greatest need now, but if Andujar does make it, could Drury become a strong utility player?

I’m guessing the simplest answer is the correct answer here. The Yankees probably just don’t believe Drury is good enough defensively anywhere other than third, so it’s not worth moving him around. If they have to move him to second base or a corner outfield spot in a pinch, okay, but otherwise he’s sticking at third. Everyone seems to be in agreement that third base is Drury’s best position — he himself has said it — so they’re just going to leave him there and not bother messing around with other positions. Walker can move around a bit, and if Tyler Wade makes the roster, he can move around as well. The Yankees hopefully won’t need Drury to do it.

Geoffrey asks: Anibal Sanchez? He just got released from the Twins.

Minor league contract only. Sanchez was really, really bad the last three seasons. He threw 415.2 innings with a 5.67 ERA (5.01 FIP) and a 1.8 HR/9 from 2015-17, and opponents hit .281/.335/.492 against him. Anibal basically turned every hitter he faced into 2017 All-Star Corey Dickerson (.282/.325/.490) over a period of three years. Yikes. The Twins released him after signing Lance Lynn — Sanchez allowed six runs in four Grapefruit League innings before getting the axe — and this might be the end of the line for him. Guys like Trevor Cahill and Jeremy Hellickson are still unsigned despite being younger and better in recent years. I’d give just about anyone a minor league deal, Anibal included. No way would I bump anyone — literally anyone, even Chasen Shreve — from the big league pitching staff to make room for him though.

Adam asks: Watching ST games, I’ve noticed that umpires are making quite a few bad calls. I’ve seen it in terms of balls and strikes, but also on double play calls (or whether a ball is caught or bounced off the ground). Does the same principle apply to umpires as it does to players, that they need ST to get their timing down and hone their eyes?

Oh yes, absolutely. Spend four months away from the game during the offseason and your skills will atrophy to some degree, regardless of whether you’re trying to hit a slider or call a proper strike zone. Mike Trout had a pretty great idea for helping umpires in Spring Training last year. He suggested easing them back into games like players, meaning the regular MLB umps work the first five or six innings of a game before giving way to minor league umpires. The veteran umps get to work back into things slowly, and the league would get a chance to evaluate younger umpires. The players get a month’s worth of games to work themselves back into game shape. The umpires are asked to call nine innings right out of the gate. They’re thrown right back into the fire. There has to be a better way. For all the crap we give umpires, they are the best in the world at what they do, but even they need some time to get into midseason form.

Joe asks: You’re up by one in the ninth. Who are the hitters you’d least like to see coming up? I’d say Trout, Harper, Bryant, Correa, Altuve, Judge or Lindor.

Trout, Joey Votto, and Jose Altuve in that order. Trout is just so damn good. The power, the speed, the ability to hit basically anything. He’s incredible. For my money Votto is the best hitter in baseball. He doesn’t chase out of the zone, he punishes anything in the zone, and he has power to all fields. Every time I see Votto make an out, I feel like the pitcher got lucky. As for Altuve, there’s just no way to pitch that dude. He gets his bat on everything — Altuve makes contact on pitches he shouldn’t even swing at — and he’s so fast that defenses have to rush every play. Now he hits for power too. Those are my three. Trout, Votto, Altuve in that order.

Dave asks: So who’s the third catcher? Torreyes? Because he’ll do anything?

Yeah, it’s Ronald Torreyes. He was the emergency third catcher the last two seasons — at least according to Joe Girardi he was — and I imagine the same will be true this year. Walker was drafted as a catcher and he caught three years in the minors before moving to the infield, though that was a long time ago, and I don’t think he’s an option back there. Same with Greg Bird, who was drafted as a catcher and caught a handful of pro games. Toe’s the guy and hopefully it never ever comes to that.

Dennis asks: I’ve been wondering this for a while–how do they leave the bullet in Estrada’s hip?! What does that mean, and why are they not removing it now?

I’ve been wondering this myself. I’m no doctor, so I did some googling, and answer seems to be that the surgery is more risky than the bullet itself. If Thairo Estrada needed surgery for repairs, they would’ve taken the bullet out because it could cause an infection. He didn’t need surgery though, so it’s easier just to leave it in. As long as the bullet isn’t in a dangerous spot — which is apparently the case with Estrada since the doctors are telling him the bullet doesn’t need to be taken out — they’re not going to touch it. Seems crazy to me, but what the hell do I know. Blame Hollywood. Whenever someone gets shot on television or in a movie, the doctor says the bullet has to come out right away, so now everyone thinks the bullet always has to come out even though that often isn’t the case.

Tommy asks: I’ve never really cared much about the Yankees beating the Mets – I’m not from New York; in fact, I’m 50 miles from Boston. I’ve noticed you get an extra kick out of beating the Mets (as I’m sure a lot of New Yorkers do). My question is: impact on standings aside, do you get more satisfaction out of the Yankees beating the Red Sox or the Mets?

They are very different types of satisfaction for me. Beating the Mets is mostly schadenfreude for me because literally everyone in my family is a Mets fan, so I like to needle them about it. I don’t really see the Mets as a rival. They’re not in the same division or even in the same league. They just happen to share the same city. Meh. Beating the Red Sox is very different. That’s more hardcore fandom, because the Yankees and Red Sox are bitter rivals, and they’re in direct competition for the AL East title each year. Every time the Yankees beat the Mets, it feels like the older brother beating the little brother. Beating the Red Sox doesn’t feel that way, at least I don’t think. I’d say beating Boston is more satisfying than beating the Mets because there’s more on the line. Those Yankees vs. Red Sox games are not for the faint of heart. They are battles. It feels like whichever team wins really accomplished something.

Williams asks: JRM most likely will be DFA’d by Arizona. JRM obviously has (at least a little) long term upside over Romine but is a marginal upgrade at BUC worth rocking the boat?

The Diamondbacks are set to go with Alex Avila and Jeff Mathis behind the plate this year — utility man Chris Herrmann can catch as well — and John Ryan Murphy is out of options, so he’s probably going to end up on waivers at some point. He’s been really bad since the Yankees traded him away. Murphy hit .146/.189/.225 (3 wRC+) in 97 big league plate appearances and .237/.299/.332 (76 wRC+) in 583 minor league plate appearances the last two years. Yikes. Longtime RAB readers know I was a big Murphy fan. I thought he had the tools to be a starting catcher in the big leagues. Obviously I was wrong. Murphy is three years younger than Romine, so you can talk yourself into him having more upside, but I’m not sure that is based on any fact. Seems like wishful thinking right now. I’m inclined to say sticking with Romine rather than dumping him for Murphy is the right move at this point in time.

Steve asks: I actually hate myself for asking this question, but if there actually was a 3B “competition” in camp, Drury is actually “winning” it right? He’s quietly hitting the cover off the ball, while Andujar came blazing out of the gate but then kind of stopped hitting. SSS and all that, but it seems like Drury’s been legitimately excellent as well. First world problems.

Yeah, probably. Drury is hitting .273/.351/.515 in 37 plate appearances this spring while Andujar is hitting .257/.270/.714 in 37 plate appearances. Andujar went 6-for-14 (.429) with four homers in his first five games and is 3-for-21 (.143) since. It was bound to happen. I love Andujar but he was never going to keep that up pace. Drury has performed better overall so far this spring, so if the Yankees are going to use Grapefruit League performance to decide the third base position, he’d be in the lead. They’re not doing that though. Seems like the Yankees decided Drury would be the guy at third and Andujar would go to Triple-A for more seasoning as soon as the trade was made.

Open Thread: March 15th Camp Notes

March 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

The Yankees beat the Pirates this afternoon and the middle of the order did most of the damage. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez went a combined 4-for-9 with two doubles (Judge, Sanchez), one homer (Sanchez), two walks (both Judge), a hit-by-pitch (Stanton), and eight runs driven in. They were a force each time their lineup spots came around. Brett Gardner drew two walks from the leadoff spot and, unsurprisingly, scored two runs. Tyler Austin hit a homer as well.

Sonny Gray got the start and allowed three runs (two earned) in three innings. He struck out four and gave up a two-run homer to Francisco Cervelli. During an in-game interview he said he’s still trying to find his fastball command. Tommy Kahnle retired all four men he faced and Dellin Betances struck out three in his inning, but also allowed a two-run homer. Twelve strikeouts for the pitching staff today. The offense drew nine walks. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the rest of the day’s notes from Tampa:

Miguel Andujar played first base, a position he’s never played in his career, during a minor league game yesterday. He also took grounders at second base during batting practice today, though I wouldn’t read much into that. Players take grounders at different positions all the time. Playing first in a game is much more notable. [Ken Davidoff, Dan Martin, DJ Eberle]
There’s still no timetable for Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique) to get into a game, but he says he feels “good.” Clint Frazier (concussion) is feeling better and saw the neurologist again today. There is no firm timetable for him to resume activities yet. [Davidoff, Martin, Bryan Hoch]
Chance Adams was sent to minor league camp before today’s game, the Yankees announced. Not a great Grapefruit League showing for him (4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 1 K). There are still 45 players in big league camp, by my unofficial count.
The Yankees are back at it tomorrow night with a home game against the Astros. That game will not be televised. Jordan Montgomery is the scheduled starter. Aaron Boone said during the in-game interview today that Neil Walker will play first base tomorrow night, in his spring debut.
And finally, Brian Cashman called Judge at MLB’s behest yesterday regarding the Manny Machado incident. Judge said they talked for maybe 30 seconds. “Now I know,” he said. [Hoch]

Here is the nightly open thread. If you’re interested, today’s game will be replayed on YES (7pm ET) and MLB Network (6am ET). The Knicks and Islanders are playing, plus you have all the March Madness action as well. Talk about those games or anything else here, as long as it it’s religion or politics.

Badler: Yankees favored to sign two top Dominican catcher prospects

March 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

According to Ben Badler, the Yankees are the favorites to sign 16-year-old Dominican catching prospects Antonio Gomez and Agustin Ramirez when the 2018-19 international signing period opens July 2nd. Both players were among the standouts during MLB’s international showcase last month.

Here’s a bit of scouting info on Gomez and Ramirez from Badler:

(Gomez) demonstrated remarkable quickness and arm strength on his throws to second base, both in the workout and in games … Gomez did have some trouble in games with his receiving, but he has an elite combination of quick feet, a fast exchange and a plus-plus arm … He uses the whole field with gap power

(snip)

Ramirez, 16, packs a lot of strength into his compact swing, driving the ball to the fence in BP … Ramirez squared up fastballs consistently, though he did have some trouble on breaking pitches. Ramirez’s bat stood out more than his defense, where Ramirez has work to do to improve his receiving and throws to second.

The Yankees signed Venezuelan catching prospect Antonio Cabello to an undisclosed bonus back in December, though whatever the bonus is, it was big enough to eat up much of their $3.5M in Shohei Ohtani money. That’s why the Rangers were able to beat them out for Cuban outfielder Julio Pablo Martinez. Texas had bonus money and the Yankees didn’t. Gomez and Ramirez are 2018 international prospects and fall under a separate signing bonus pool.

Catcher is, by no small margin, the weakest position in the organization at the moment. Fortunately the Yankees have Gary Sanchez at the MLB level, so they won’t need a new big league backstop anytime soon, but the catcher prospect cupboard is pretty bare. Saul Torres, converted infielder Donny Sands, and soon-to-be 28-year-old Kyle Higashioka are the team’s top backstop prospects. Yikes.

Teams generally do not draft or sign players to fill organizational needs. The Yankees tend to hoard talent, regardless of position, then figure out how it fits later. That’s how they wound up with Sanchez and John Ryan Murphy sharing catching duties like three years straight in the minors. Gomez and Ramirez will help address an organizational weakness at catcher and that’s cool. But the Yankees aren’t signing them specifically because they’re catchers.

Jordan Montgomery’s Sophomore Year [2018 Season Preview]

March 15, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Around this time last season, we had no idea what the Yankees’ rotation would look like in 2018. Luis Severino was coming off a dismal 2016 season, Masahiro Tanaka could opt out of his contract, CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda were due to become free agents, and who knew who the fifth starter would be? The long-term rotation picture was pretty dicey.

Luis Cessa, Chad Green, and Bryan Mitchell went to camp last spring as fifth starter candidates. Jordan Montgomery, who was neither on the 40-man roster nor a top prospect, beat them all out for the job and wound up leading all rookie pitchers in fWAR in 2017. Montgomery threw 155.1 innings with a 3.88 ERA (4.07 FIP) and strong strikeout (22.2%) and walk (7.9%) rates in 2017. He was rock solid.

Aaron Boone has already said Montgomery has a regular season rotation spot — apparently he was competing for a rotation spot with Cessa, but a great big LOL to that — and now he is expected to produce. He’s not a fun rookie surprise who sneaks up on everyone. Montgomery is an important part of the team and the Yankees will need him to perform to contend in 2018. Let’s preview the southpaw’s sophomore season.

Finding the changeup

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Montgomery’s rookie season is that he did it without confidence in his changeup, which he says is his best pitch. “I really kind of got through the year with two pitches. If I hadn’t had my curveball and been able to throw it for strikes and expand with it, who knows what would have happened. It’s kind of good knowing I got through it without my best pitch, my changeup,” he said at the outset of camp.

Montgomery did throw his changeup last year — he threw it approximately 13% of the time overall — but he used it less and less as the season progressed, and by September it was non-factor. Couldn’t get grounders with it, couldn’t get swings and misses with it. That he pitched so well overall without the changeup is a testament to Montgomery’s stuff and pitching know-how. Finding that changeup could allow him to take a step forward this year.

So far Montgomery has made four appearances and thrown eleven innings during Grapefruit League play, though only two appearances and five innings were televised. He definitely threw changeups during those televised outings, but was he confident in it? Did it behave the way he wanted? Those are things we wouldn’t be able to tell by watching on television. To our untrained eyes, Montgomery’s changeup was always going to look good.

Following his most recent outing, Montgomery admitted his changeup is still a work in progress, but he is working on it, and hopefully it’ll click at some point. There’s not much else he can do other than throw it and continue to throw it. If it clicks, great. If not, well Montgomery showed last season he can be effective even when he doesn’t have the changeup working, which bodes well. He doesn’t absolutely need that changeup to be successful.

Will the Yankees take the reins off?

The Yankees handled Montgomery very carefully last season, especially in the second half as his innings total climbed into uncharted territory. He threw 163.1 total innings last year — Montgomery was on both the ALDS and ALCS rosters, though he didn’t appear in a game — above his previous career high of 139.1 innings in 2016. Remember though, most of his innings last year were big league innings, and those are more taxing.

Montgomery is an important part of the future — quality big league starters in their pre-arbitration years are damn valuable — and the Yankees are right to be careful with him. That was part of the motivation for the Jaime Garcia trade. Garcia made it easier for the Yankees to ease up on Montgomery and protect his arm. How many innings will he be allowed to throw this year? Hard to say. The Yankees usually don’t put a hard innings number on guys. They instead monitor them and adjust as necessary.

Beyond the overall workload, I’m interested to see how deep into games the Yankees let Montgomery pitch. Joe Girardi had an awfully quick hook at times last season. Montgomery made 29 starts and he completed six innings in only 12 of them. He threw as many as 90 pitches only 14 times. Only five times did he throw 100+ pitches. Montgomery averaged 87 pitches and 5.35 innings per start. Hmmm.

The sample isn’t large, but Montgomery’s numbers the third time through the lineup weren’t terrible. He was actually least effective the first time through the order, which is one of those things I suspect will change as the sample grows. The numbers:

First time through the order: .275/.335/.436 (111 OPS+)
Second time through the order: .188/.243/.317 (44 OPS+)
Third time through the order: .252/.323/.409 (84 OPS+)

Montgomery faced one batter the fourth time through the order and that batter (Ben Zobrist) tripled. That’s an 864 OPS+, in case you’re wondering.

During one of his in-game interviews with YES a few days ago, Boone said he hopes to get length from his starters this season, easing the load on the bullpen and allowing the relievers to stay fresh deeper into the season. Does that mean Montgomery will get a longer leash? I guess it depends how he’s performing on a given day. There were definitely some “why is he taking him out he’s pitching fine” moments last year. I hope those are limited now.

“I think I’m a big guy. Big lefty. I’m more than capable of going out there seven innings every five days,” said Montgomery to Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin over the weekend. “In order to do that, my fastball command has got to get better and I’ve really got to lock down my changeup. That’s what I’ve been working on.”

So what can he improve this season?

The changeup is one thing. So is pitching deeper into games. And, by Montgomery’s own admission, his fastball command “has got to get better.” That sounds like typical young pitcher stuff, doesn’t it? Work on the changeup, work on the fastball command, figure out how to be more efficient and pitch deeper into games. As effective as he was last year and as polished as he is, Montgomery is still a kid. He has a lot to learn.

Beyond that stuff, there is one thing Montgomery can improve that really stands out to me: His ground ball and home run rates. I guess that’s two things, but they are tied together. Montgomery had a 40.7% ground ball rate and a 1.22 HR/9 (11.2% HR/FB) last season. Weirdly enough, the more ground balls he generated, the more homers he allowed:

Huh. That is … interesting. Probably an anomaly too. Montgomery is a big dude (listed at 6-foot-6) and he releases the ball from … *waves hand high above head* … way up here, so at times it can be tough for him to drive the ball down to the bottom of the zone. Not surprisingly, almost all of the 21 home runs Montgomery allowed last year came on pitches belt high and out over the middle of the plate. He didn’t give up many golf shots on pitches at or below the knees.

I get the sense Montgomery will never be a big time ground ball pitcher, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing as long as they’re mostly pop-ups and medium deep fly balls rather than long fly balls to or near the warning track. Yankee Stadium is not the best place for a fly ball pitcher. Montgomery will have to make do.

One-hundred-and-thirty-four pitchers threw at least 100 innings in 2017, and among those 134 pitchers, Montgomery had the fourth lowest hard contact rate (26.5%) and the 13th highest chase rate (35.2%). As long as he continues to expand the zone effectively and generate weak contact, he can mitigate the damage from those fly balls. Montgomery might always be home run prone. That just might be who he is. But if he figures out a way to keep the ball in the park as he gains experience, there’s no telling how good he can be.

* * *

I’m more curious to see what Montgomery does this season than any other pitcher in the rotation. I think there is room for considerable growth, but also a risk factor due to his workload and the lack of ground balls. If he finds his changeup, commands his fastball better, and keeps the ball in the yard, Montgomery might be a top 30 pitcher in baseball. If the changeup doesn’t come around and limiting homers continues to be an issue, he’s a candidate to take a step back statistically.

A year ago the Yankees were desperate for a young starter to come out of the farm system and establish himself as a long-term rotation piece, and Montgomery did exactly that. That he’s a lefty makes it even better. Quality southpaws are a necessity in Yankee Stadium, and the history of the Yankees is littered with top notch southpaws. Lefty Gomez, Whitey Ford, Ron Guidry, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia … maybe Montgomery won’t be that good, but he sure looks like a keeper to me.