River Avenue Blues

Sonny and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Season [2018 Season Review]

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This jersey might just be the high point of Gray’s season. (Patrick McDermott/Getty)

Way back in March, I had the privilege of writing the season preview for Sonny Gray. I did so with not so well-hidden glee, as I was all but certain that he would end up being a tremendous third starter for the Yankees. Take a look:

I’m a big fan of Gray; I was ecstatic when they traded for him, and I’m excited to see what he can do in a full season for the Yankees. There were some warts on his shiny ERA following the trade, and I can understand why he is viewed as something of a question mark heading into 2018. At the same time, though, he is a 28-year-old starter that has pitched like an ace at times, and has a fantastic repertoire – and he’s only really expected to be the team’s third starter. And there aren’t many – if any – better third starters in the game.

There was more than a bit of skepticism towards that stance, and the early returns this season made supporting Gray seem a fool’s errand. But, as Kurt Vonnegut wrote in The Sirens of Titan, “anybody who has traveled this far on a fool’s errand has no choice but to uphold the honor of fools by completing the errand.” And so I held out hope as bad starts mounted and trade winds swirled, appearing more and more foolish by the week.

But I digress. Let’s go back to the beginning.

The First Start

Gray exited his first start with some superficially tremendous numbers – notably a 2.25 ERA and 18.0 K/9. However, as was the case in his three months with the Yankees in 2018, his underlying numbers weren’t so hot. Gray only completed four innings due to an excessive pitch count (89), and he allowed seven hits and three walks along the way. He was pulled by Aaron Boone with one on and none out in the bottom of the fifth (an understandable and smart hook for the rookie manager), and was bailed out by Chad Green.

It’s difficult to take a great deal away from one start, but the walks and pitch count were endemic of the issues that made fans leery when he first donned pinstripes. And, as a fun bit of foreshadowing, here is where I’ll note that he threw just 6.74% four-seamers in that start – the lowest figure of his career.

The Frustration Sets In

In lieu of offering a start-by-start breakdown, I think that a simple list is all that you need to see in order to understand just how up-and-down Gray was this year. I won’t overload it with information, either – it’ll just be two numbers: innings pitched and runs allowed.

  • April 7 – 6.0 IP, 3 R
  • April 12 – 3.0 IP, 6 R
  • April 20 – 3.1 IP, 5 R
  • April 25 – 4.2 IP, 3 R
  • April 30 – 6.0 IP, 2 R
  • May 5 – 6.0 IP, 2 R
  • May 11 – 5.0 IP, 5 R
  • May 20 – 8.0 IP, 1 R
  • May 26 – 3.2 IP, 5 R
  • June 1 – 6.0 IP, 1 R
  • June 6 – 8.0 IP, 0 R
  • June 13 – 5.0 IP, 4 R
  • June 18 – 5.0 IP, 2 R
  • June 23 – 6.2 IP, 4 R
  • June 30 – 2.1 IP, 6 R
  • July 6 – 2.0 IP, 5 R
  • July 11 – 6.0 IP, 0 R
  • July 21 – 5.1 IP, 3 R
  • July 26 – 5.0 IP, 0 R
  • August 1 – 2.2 IP, 7 R

On August 2, it was announced that Gray would be moving to the bullpen in deference to the newly-acquired Lance Lynn, so this isn’t an arbitrary endpoint. This list simply ends when the Yankees grew tired of Gray’s inconsistency (and, in more plain terms, his 5.56 ERA through 21 starts).

In this stretch, Gray allowed 4+ runs nine times, and failed to finish the fifth inning seven times, which means he was putting pressure on the bullpen on both fronts. And every time he showed flashes of his old self (such as his outings on June 1 and June 6), he came crashing back to earth shortly thereafter.

Watching his first 21 starts felt almost sadistic, as he appeared out of sorts at all times. He couldn’t find the strike zone with any semblance of regularity, and when he did it always seemed to be thrown right down the middle. That has a degree of hyperbole to it, to be sure – but his 9.9% walk rate and 14.1% HR/FB suggest that it rings at least a bit true. The fact that he averaged 85 pitches per start despite average fewer than 5 IP speaks to that, as well.

A Reasonably Productive Closing Stretch

Gray made his first relief appearance in extra innings against the White Sox on August 7 – and it was a good one. He tossed three scoreless innings and allowed just two base-runners, while striking out four, and picked up the win.

He served as a swingman/long-man/long reliever from that point forward, and was more good than bad. Sure, he had two rough outings (including allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in an inning on August 12), but he finished out the season with a 2.35 ERA in his final nine appearances (26.2 IP). That included two spot-starts, which are a perfect exemplification of his season – 6.1 scoreless innings against the Orioles on August 25, and seven base-runners and three runs in three innings against the Twins on September 11.

Gray finished the season with a 4.90 ERA (89 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP in 130.1 IP. It wasn’t his worst season – that distinction belongs to his injury-riddled 2016 – but his 9.8% walk rate was the worst of his career, as was his 50.0% groundball rate.

What Went Wrong?

Yankee Stadium, for one. Take a look:

  • Home – 59.1 IP, 78 H, 35 BB, 45 K, 11 HR, 6.98 ERA, 5.98 FIP
  • Road – 71.0 IP, 60 H, 22 BB, 78 K, 3 HR, 3.17 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Gray was all but unplayable in the Bronx, but he was a borderline ace on the road. There’s some noise in smaller sample sizes of this nature, of course – but this is basically just a more extreme version of how he performed with the Yankees in 2017. Interestingly enough, Gray’s two best and two worst starts came at home; make of that what you will.

And, as I mentioned earlier, Gray’s four-seam usage went way down with the anti-fastball Yankees:

That trend started last year once he was acquired, and it continued this year. Gray threw just over 25% four-seamers this year, after being over 30% in each of his previous five seasons. That difference was made up for with his curveball usage, and that pitch was mediocre at-best; his slider, which is usually his best pitch, didn’t see that sort of uptick. It was a forced evolution, of sorts, and it was not effective.

What’s Next?

Gray has one year of arbitration eligibility left, and MLBTR projects a $9.1 MM salary. That is almost certainly moot, though, as Brian Cashman has indicated that Gray will be traded this off-season. So the only real question is who the Yankees can get in return.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. So long, Sonny.

Mailbag: Gonzalez, Bumgarner, Keuchel, Kershaw, Harrison

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We’ve got ten questions in this week’s mailbag. Good mailbag, I think. Glad it’s the offseason and we finally have some more things to talk about it. I’m not sure how many more questions I could answer about Miguel Andujar’s ultimate position before going crazy. Anyway, RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is the mailbag email address. Fire away.

This was quite the go-ahead double. (Jason Miller/Getty)

Phil asks: Marwin Gonzalez. The perfect FA match. He can play 2B (with Gleyber at SS) until they figure out the Didi situation. He’s the super-utility starter they hoped Wade would become. And he won’t cost a TON. 1) Am I right, or am I RIGHT? 2) What do you think the damage will be in years/dollars? Thanks.

Gonzalez is one of those free agents who’s a good fit for every team because he’s so versatile. He can play all four infield positions — and play them well, which is kinda important — as well as left field. I don’t think I would ever expect him to hit .303/.377/.530 (144 wRC+) like he did in 2017 again. That seems like one of those perfectly timed career years teams need to win a World Series. Since 2014, Gonzalez has been a 100-110 wRC+ guy with 12-15 homers annually aside from that 2017 season, which is pretty good. Switch-hitter who takes walks and will sock one out of the park every so often while playing all over the field? That guy fits every team.

As for the cost, man, I don’t know. I feel like it’s impossible to predict free agent contracts this offseason because everything was so wacky last offseason. Gonzalez turns 30 in March, so he’s not old. I think his asking price starts at Ben Zobrist’s contract (four years and $56M). Gonzalez is five (!) years younger now than Zobrist was when he hit free agency, though his track record isn’t as good or as long. In a normal free agent climate, four years and $56M would be reasonable in my opinion. In this free agent climate? Who knows.

Ian asks: I understand he *should* retire a Giant, but the fact remains that SF has not extended Bumgarner yet, he’s set to become a free agent next year at the age of 30. Am I crazy for thinking he might be available? Why would they wait for him to get closer to FA before extending him if they have no intention of letting him go? It’s not like they’ll be in ‘win now’ mode in 2019, and I’d gladly take a shot at 30 year old MadBum. 30 is older, but it’s not that old to where I’d pass on him.

The Giants don’t have a general manager or baseball operations head right now. GM Bobby Evans was let go and longtime executive Brian Sabean is moving from president of baseball operations into a less demanding role. I assume the decision to trade or extend Madison Bumgarner will wait until the team has a new front office in place. Either that or ownership will step in and give him that quote-unquote lifetime contract.

I would happily take on one year of Bumgarner. Bring him aboard and see how the season plays out before deciding whether to sign him long-term. If the Giants do decide to trade him, they should do it sooner rather than later. Trading him now nets the best possible return. Look at Manny Machado. Look what the Orioles got for him compared to what they could’ve gotten last winter. A full season of Bumgarner is much more valuable than two months of Bumgarner at the deadline, plus there’s always injury risk to consider.

The Yankees should absolutely check in on Bumgarner if the Giants decide to move him. They should do more than check in, really. They should pursue him aggressively. I don’t think putting Justus Sheffield in the trade would be unreasonable either, even for only one year of Bumgarner. He’s great and you have to pay to get great. The Giants presumably have to get their front office in place before any of this happens. I wonder if this means the free agent pitching market will be held up until San Francisco makes their intentions with Bumgarner clear?

Douglas asks: Short and sweet: do you think Keuchel would part with majestic beard of his to become a Yankee or would that be a sticking point? Is it time to revise the facial hair policy of the Yankees–goatees and well-groomed beards allowed? Seems like the thing to do upon leaving the Yankees is grow a beard.

Getting rid of the facial hair policy is long overdue. It is pointless. Baseball players are not working class Average Joes. Lots of folks would lose their job if they showed up to work with a baseball player beard. Baseball players don’t live in the same world as most folks though. Baseball is the entertainment business, first and foremost. Part of that entertainment is letting players be themselves and show some personality. There are a lot of ugly beards out there, but, if a player wants an ugly beard, let him have an ugly beard. I see no problem with this.

As for Dallas Keuchel, if he refuses to sign with the Yankees because of the facial hair policy, so be it. I’m not all that eager to sign him anyway. His strikeout (17.5%) and ground ball (53.7%) dropped considerably from last year (21.4% and 66.8%), and an upper-80s sinker guy is not really my cup of tea. Keuchel is 30 and he pitches like I want a 35 or 36-year-old to pitch after he loses his stuff. I don’t want to invest big money in a guy who might be sitting mid-80s by year three of a long-term deal, especially given the performance decline we saw this year.

Miggy. (Gregory Shamus/Getty)

Patrick asks: Would you consider a trade for Miguel Cabrera if the medicals check out? Send over Ellsbury and maybe a lower level minor league arm or two and the Tigers send Cabrera and cash to make the financials a wash. Cabrera could potentially be much more useful at 1b.

Nope. There are five years and $154M (!) remaining on Cabrera’s contract. Send over Jacoby Ellsbury to offset salary and you’re still taking on $107M for a guy who’s starting to break down physically (played 445 of 648 possible games the last four years) and has seen his performance slip. Cabrera’s an all-time great who should waltz into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot when the time comes. We’re talking about taking on what figure to be heavy decline years though, and chances are he’ll be relegated to DH before long just to keep his body in one piece. How much would the Tigers have to pay down to make this worthwhile? Turn him into a $10M a year player? Even that doesn’t excite me. The time to get Miggy was ten years ago when he was in his prime and the Marlins put him on the market. Trade for him now and you’re asking for trouble. This feels like an old Yankees move.

James asks: Not a question just an observation: Your continual comparison of pitchers ERA with Sanchez and Romine behind the plate fails to take into account that Romine caught the majority of Gray’s starts. Near the end of the season I calculated the staff ERA difference and, if I recall correctly, removing Gray from the equation led to nearly similar staff ERA’s for both catchers.

How many more hoops do we have to jump through to make Austin Romine look good? Fine. If we remove Gray from Romine’s numbers, it’s still a 3.95 ERA. The pitching staff had a 3.50 ERA with Sanchez. It was a 3.38 ERA when we remove Gray, which is only fair, because we did it for Romine. And wasn’t Romine supposed to be the Sonny Gray whisperer anyway? I thought he needed his personal catcher to pitch well?

Catcher ERA is dumb as hell and should never ever be used in a serious analysis. It assigns way too much credit to the catcher. At the end of the day, all the catcher can do is put down the signs. The pitcher still has to execute. Sonny has good stuff and I have no reason to doubt the team’s game-planning. He just doesn’t execute. Gray leaves a lot of mistakes out over the plate no matter who’s catching. Just avoid catcher ERA all together. I only use it to troll the Cult of Romine™.

Luke asks: First off, Steve Pearce? Come on! I can’t find it anywhere, but I can’t help to believe that Price had to have led the Sox in WAR for the World Series. Which players were the best players by WAR in the World Series? Is there a better way to value players (pitchers versus hitters) in general?

As far as I know, no one calculates postseason WAR. That seems like it would be tough to do. You’d have to recalculate replacement level for postseason rosters. We do have postseason win probability and championship probability added though. Here are the 2018 World Series leaders:

Win Probability Added (WPA)
1. Steve Pearce: +0.63
2. David Price: +0.46
3. Walker Buehler: +0.45
4. Yasiel Puig: +0.41
5. Joe Kelly: +0.38

Championship Probability Added (CPA)
1. Steve Pearce: +0.196
2. Joe Kelly: +0.116
3. Yasiel Puig: +0.115
4. Rich Hill: +0.106
5. David Price: +0.105

I personally would’ve voted for Price — two very good starts, including one in the clincher on short rest, with a relief appearance mixed it? that gets my vote — but Pearce was obviously a defensible choice. If you’re interested, here are the Yankees’ postseason leaders in CPA by round. Ralph Terry is the all-time postseason CPA leader (Yankees or otherwise) with +0.994 in the 1962 World Series.

Derek asks: If Clayton Kershaw opts out, how willing would the Yankees be to signing him? Would you pay the steep price? Personally, I’m terrified of it becoming a dead money contract and the postseason results haven’t been there. His fastball has also declined from 95 to 91 and his whiff percentages are way down.

The fact Kershaw and the Dodgers agreed to push his opt-out back from Wednesday to today is a pretty good indication they’re working on an extension. I’m guessing it’ll be announced later today. Maybe they’ll add two years on top of the two years remaining on his contract? We’ll find out. And, just to toot my own horn, I said I expected Kershaw to leverage his opt-out into an extension without actually opting out when we did our CBS round table.

Anyway, in a hypothetical world where Kershaw opts out, yeah, I’d want the Yankees to look into him. There are legitimate concerns about Kershaw. No doubt. He’s had back trouble three years running now and his underlying performance (and velocity) has slipped. Kershaw’s also only one year older than Patrick Corbin and still very good. Hurt and declining Kershaw had a 2.73 ERA (3.19 FIP) this year. He’s starting from such a high baseline that he’ll still be really good even when factoring in decline. I’m not saying I’d go all out to sign him. But if we’re talking Kershaw at three years and $100M vs. Corbin at five years and $100M, I’d probably go with Kershaw.

Dave asks: Thoughts on Joe Mauer for 1st base next year – good contact, high on base, plus good defense, and a low strikeout total (plus he’s a lefty). Always loved the guy and as a stop-gap player on a cheaper deal might be a very good fit.

I like the idea of Mauer and I had him on my list of potential first base trade targets last year, but I never wrote it up anywhere because I don’t think he’ll actually leave the Twins. He’s a born and raised Minneapolis guy and I don’t think he went through with that emotional final pitch farewell this year …

… only to sign with another team this offseason. Seems to me it’s either retirement or the Twins with retirement in the lead. (MLB.com even cooked up a career highlights video already.) In theory, yeah, I think Mauer would be a real good fit as a high on-base lefty contact guy. He has no power, but that’s fine. The Yankees have power to spare. If Mauer’s willing to leave Minnesota and sign a cheap one-year deal, yeah, the Yankees should check in. I don’t think he’s leaving the Twins for another team though. It’s the Twins or retirement.

Hector asks: How many games did the Yanks have Sanchez, Torres, Didi, Stanton, Judge and Hicks on the lineup? I bet it is less than 50. Yanks just need a little more luck to go their way in 2019. I still believe in their overall talent.

I count 31 games with Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks all in the lineup this year, or 19% of the regular season. Fewer than one out of every five games. I mean, the talent is obviously there. The Yankees do have replace Gregorius now, but there’s a strong core in place already, and it’ll be there again next year. I just don’t like the “we’ll be better next year with good health” line of thinking. Injuries are part of the game. Every team has to deal with them. The Yankees dealt with them better than most teams this year — that’s why they won 100 games while playing their A+ lineup less than 20% of the time — and they’ll have to deal with injuries again next year. That’s baseball.

Garrett asks: The Pirates just declined Josh Harrison’s option. The Yankees have always been linked to him. Could you see them signing him to play 2nd with Torres moving to SS and moving into a utility role when Didi returns? What would it take?

Yeah, I think Harrison is someone to keep an eye on. The Yankees have been connected to him several times over the years, though I always got the sense they were kinda lukewarm on him and weren’t willing to go all out to get him. Now that he’s available for just cash, it makes more sense to get involved. That said, Harrison wasn’t very good last year (.250/.293/.363 and 78 wRC+) and he’s been a sub-100 wRC+/sub-1.5 WAR player in three of the last four years. Maybe he can improve going forward. I’m not sure how much I’d willing to bet on that. I think the Yankees see Harrison as more of a fallback plan on the middle infield rather than Plan A.

Clint Frazier’s injury is already having a domino effect on the Yankees’ offseason

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(Presswire)

It would be wrong to call Clint Frazier’s concussion and post-concussion migraines the most costly injuries of the 2018 season for the Yankees. I mean, this is a team that lost Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez for roughly two months each, plus Jordan Montgomery was limited to only six starts. Those were some truly devastating injuries.

Frazier’s injuries were costly though. No doubt. Aaron Hicks got hurt on Opening Day and, nine games into the season, Jace Peterson was starting in left field. The Yankees went through August with Neil Walker and Shane Robinson playing right field. That was all playing time that could’ve gone to Frazier had he been healthy.

Instead, the injuries limited Frazier to 283 plate appearances (242 in the minors and 41 in MLB) and basically none after July 19th. For all intents and purposes, Frazier’s season started in early May and ended at the All-Star break. The .311/.389/.574 (170 wRC+) batting line in Triple-A was good to see. It’s unfortunate he couldn’t play more.

Frazier missing so much time was costly and the ramifications of those injuries will continue to be felt this offseason. Rather than get a chance to prove himself at the MLB level this year, Clint missed all that time, which meant the Yankees headed into the winter with:

  1. Uncertainty as to whether Frazier could hold down the left field job next year.
  2. A trade chip with diminished value. Who’s paying full price for Frazier now?

To be clear, I’m not blaming Frazier for his injuries. I’d never blame a player for an injury unless it was a dumb and avoidable off-the-field injury, like falling asleep in a tanning bed. Clint originally got hurt crashing into the outfield wall in Spring Training. It happens. Outfielders crash into walls. Most make it out okay. Some get hurt. That’s baseball.

I’m just saying Frazier’s injuries hurt the Yankees during the regular season and they’ve already thrown a wrench into the offseason. As I mentioned earlier, Brett Gardner might not have been re-signed had Frazier been healthy this year. The left field job could’ve been his. Instead, the Yankees couldn’t pencil Clint into an outfield spot next year, so they needed a stopgap, hence Gardner’s return.

Also, with Frazier not 100% physically and teams having not seen him on the field in several months now, it’s hard to see him being the centerpiece in a trade for a pitcher. Clint’s awesome, but if I were another team I sure as heck wouldn’t take him as the headliner in a trade for someone like, say, Jon Gray. Would I try to buy low on him? Hell yes. Would I pay full price for him? Nope.

The best course of action — maybe the only course of action — is letting Frazier get healthy this winter and planning as if he’ll be a non-factor next year. Anything he gives you in 2019 is a bonus. If he contributes and takes over left field full-time at some point, great! The Yankees have to plan for the worst though, right? That’s why Gardner was re-signed. It’s easier to find an outfielder now in the offseason than during the season.

“(Frazier is) home recovering,” Brian Cashman said to Randy Miller a few weeks ago. “He’s still under the care of Dr. Mickey Collins (in Pittsburgh). But onward and upward. Doing better. According to Dr. Collins, he’ll be fully recovered well before Spring Training.”

Given the nature of the injury, the priority here is Clint’s health. Concussions can have a lasting impact on quality of life. There is also a baseball angle the Yankees have to consider, and with Gardner back in the fold, that refers to Frazier’s trade value. Getting an impact pitcher could be that much more difficult without him healthy. The Yankees didn’t have Frazier when they needed him during the season. Now they basically have to plan their offseason without him.

The Continually Improving Aaron Hicks [2018 Season Review]

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(Presswire)

Three years ago the Yankees and Twins made an old fashioned one-for-one baseball trade that created a lot of buzz within the game because, well, it was an old fashioned baseball trade. It wasn’t a salary dump, it wasn’t a rebuilding team hoarding prospects, it wasn’t a rental being moved at the deadline. It was a baseball deal. My guy for your guy. Talent for talent. John Ryan Murphy for Aaron Hicks.

The Yankees have since emerged as the clear winner in the trade. Murphy didn’t work out in Minnesota and, after a hot start to the season, he limped to the finish with the Diamondbacks this year. Hicks, meanwhile, stumbled in 2016 before cementing himself as one of the most productive outfielders in the game the last two seasons. Eighty-seven outfielders batted at least 800 times the last two years. Hicksie’s ranksies:

  • AVG: .255 (55th)
  • OBP: .368 (11th)
  • SLG: .470 (33rd)
  • wRC+: 127 (18th)
  • HR: 42 (32nd)
  • BB%: 15.0% (4th)
  • Baserunning runs: +9.6 (10th)
  • WAR: +8.2 (12th)

Hicks had 942 plate appearances from 2017-18. Rhys Hoskins is next at +5.1 WAR among outfielders with fewer than 1,000 plate appearance the last two years. The batting average is a little lower than you’d like, but everything else is pretty good, especially since Hicks is a center fielder putting up corner outfielder numbers.

Nagging injuries have slowed Hicks the last two years — last season it was a pair of oblique issues, this year it was an intercostal and hamstring trouble — but he still finished this season at .248/.366/.467 (127 wRC+) with a career high 27 home runs. Hicks also posted better than league average strikeout (19.1%) and walk (15.5%) rates, ran the bases well (+7.0 BsR), and played strong center field defense. He’s become the player prospect experts believed he could be.

During his three years in pinstripes Hicks has gone from reclamation project to unproductive fourth outfielder to starting center fielder to key contributor. Ninety-nine times he batted 1-2-3-4-5 in the lineup somewhere, including batting third in his first two postseason starts before the hamstring acted up. Hicks still seems a little underappreciated to me, but that doesn’t matter. The Yankees know how good he is. Let’s review his 2018 season.

The Great Plate Discipline

Coming up through the minors Hicks was always known for his plate discipline. I mean, the tools and athleticism stood out the most, but his military style plate discipline led to a 14.4% walk rate in the minors. It was patience bordering on passivity. Sometimes Hicks let hittable pitches go by and that’s taking plate discipline too far. It’s okay to jump on that fastball over the plate early in the count, you know? The 2018 chase rate leaderboard:

  1. Joey Votto: 17.2%
  2. Andrew McCutchen: 17.8%
  3. Alex Bregman: 18.1%
  4. Mookie Betts: 18.5%
  5. Aaron Hicks: 19.4%

Only four of the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title swung at pitches out of zone at a lower rate than Hicks. Also, among the players with the 17 lowest chase rates, Hicks had the highest rate of swinging at pitches in the zone at 62.8%. He’s found the sweet spot. He’s laying off pitches out of the zone but also hunting and attacking those hittable pitches in the zone.

Here, for no good reason whatsoever, are two heat maps. On the left are Miguel Andujar’s swings. On the right are Aaron Hicks’ swings. Check out the difference:

Heh. This isn’t intended to be a knock on Andujar. He’s awesome. He swings at everything (39.3% chase rate and 70.0% in-zone swing rate) and it works for him because has that innate ability to get the fat part of the bat on the ball. Hicks’ swings are much more concentrated on pitches out over the middle of the plate. He and Andujar are very different hitters, yet they still provided the same offensive value this year (128 wRC+ and 127 wRC+). Pretty neat.

Anyway, offensively, it all starts with plate discipline for Hicks. He consistently works long at-bats and puts himself in good hitters counts, and now he’s driving the ball with more authority than ever. His 39.5% hard hit rate this year was far and away a career high. His 40.0% ground ball rate this year was also a career low. I mean:

  • 2016: 28.9% hard contact and 45.6% grounders
  • 2017: 30.8% hard contact and 44.1% grounders
  • 2018: 39.5% hard contact and 40.0% grounders

A good trend, that is. Those career high 27 home runs — Hicks’ previous career high was 15 homers last year — weren’t a fluke. Hicks hit the ball hard and he hit the ball in the air more than ever before, and that put him in position to not only sock long dingers, but also take advantage of the short porch.

The Possibly Good, Possible Mediocre Defense

To the eye test, Hicks is a very good defensive center fielder in my opinion. It seems like he glides to balls in the gaps. There have definitely been some issues on balls hit right over his head, but everyone seems to have trouble with those, so I can’t crush Hicks for it. Add in his arm and, to me, Hicks is real good in center field.

The numbers say otherwise. Defensive Runs Saved say Hicks went from +12 runs in 440.2 innings in center field last year to … -3 runs in 1,138.1 innings in center this year? Really? Ultimate Zone Rating says he went from +5.0 to -0.2. UZR puts it all on his range too. The UZR breakdown say Hicks’ arm and ability to avoid errors held steady from 2017 to 2018. But his range component went from +4.4 last year to -0.8 this year.

Among the many Statcast tools that exists but is hard to find is directional outs above average. It tells us how good an outfielder is at making plays in each direction, meaning going to his left, going to his right, coming in on the ball, going back, etc. Here is Hicks in 2017 and 2018:

Just to be clear, the center fielder is the dot in the middle. The bottom pie slice is coming in on the ball and the top pie slice is going back. Left and right is going to the left and right. The only difference between 2017 Hicks and 2018 Hicks is going to his right (left field). He was a run better than average going to his right last year and multiple runs below average going to his right this year. Hmmm.

I’m not really sure what’s going on here. Perhaps it’s nothing more than sample size noise since defensive stats usually need a few seasons worth of data to become reliable? Or maybe it had to do with positioning and the way the Yankees shaded Hicks in center? Or maybe he lost a step — the hamstring injuries may explain that — but only when going to his right? I dunno.

Whatever it is, the numbers say Hicks went from comfortably above average in the field last year to about average if not a touch below this year. He turned 29 earlier this month, so between his age and overall ability, I’m not convinced the defensive decline is permanent. It might be, for sure. But defensive stats can fluctuate year-to-year the same way batting average can, and I’d bet on the defensive numbers liking Hicks more in 2019 than they did in 2018.

Aaron’s Cool Baseball Things

In addition to being a strong two-way player who switch-hits and has power and patience from both sides of the plate, Hicks did some very fun baseball things this year. Much more than any other Yankee, I think. Let’s review them chronologically.

April 13th vs. Tigers: In his third game of the season — remember, he missed some time early with an intercostal injury — Hicks managed to hit both an inside-the-park home run and an outside-the-park home run. They were his first two homers of the season. Check it out:

Hicks hit the Yankees’ first inside-the-park home run since Curtis Granderson in 2011 and he’s the first Yankee with an inside-the-park/outside-the-park two-homer game since Hank Bauer in 1956. He was the first player with an inside-the-park/outside-the-park two-homer game since Nick Castellanos, who, coincidentally enough, did it against the Yankees last year.

Because one inside-the-park home run wasn’t enough, Hicks hit another one on May 19th against the Royals. He’s the first Yankee with multiple inside-the-park homers in a single season since Mickey Mantle had three in 1953.

July 1st vs. Red Sox: On the morning of July 1st the Yankees were one game up on the Red Sox in the AL East. That night they clobbered David Price for eight runs and five home runs in 3.1 innings. They hit six home runs in the game overall. Hicksie had three of them.

Hicks went deep from both sides of the plate and hit the first home run the other way, the second to dead center, and the third to the pull field. Both sides of the plate and to all fields. Hicks also became the first Yankee with a three-homer game since Alex Rodriguez in 2015 and the third Yankee with a three-homer game against the Red Sox, joining Lou Gehrig (1927) and Mark Teixeira (2010). Now that is pretty cool.

July 26th vs. Royals: An otherwise nondescript win over the Royals had a very exciting ending. Hicks threw Alex Gordon out at the plate to the end game for a walk-off outfield assist. Check it out:

No, the situation was not dire (the Yankees were up by five), and yes, the Royals made it easy (Gordon ran through the stop sign), but still, you’ve got to execute the throw, and Hicks did. Besides, since when does throwing someone out at the plate need to be difficult or dramatic to be fun? What a neat way to end a ballgame.

September 22nd vs. Orioles: The Yankees stumbled through much of the second half this year, and while they were never really in danger of losing a postseason spot, homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game did get a little dicey at times. The Yankees officially clinched a postseason spot on September 22nd and they did it in one of the coolest ways possible. Hicks walked it off in the 11th inning. To the action footage:

As best I can tell, that was the first time the Yankees clinched a postseason spot on a walk-off hit since Alfonso Soriano’s first career big league hit was an AL East clinching walk-off homer in 1999. Either way, that’s still pretty awesome. A walk-off hit to punch your ticket to the postseason is as fun as it gets.

What’s Next?

The 2019 season will be an important one for Hicks, personally. It’s his final year of team control (projected $6.2M salary) and another strong season sets him up for a considerable free agent payday. Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) are the contract benchmarks here, and, when he hits free agency, Hicks will be one year younger than Fowler and two years younger than Cain at the time of their free agencies.

It’s unclear whether the Yankees will pursue a long-term extension with Hicks this offseason — doing so would raise his luxury tax hit considerably next year and who knows what the team’s plans are financially — but it sure seems like something that should happen. Switch-hitting center fielders with power and patience and good defense aren’t easy to find, and it’s not like the Yankees have a center field replacement in the pipeline. (Estevan Florial is still a few years away.)

Extension or no extension, I have a hard time believing the Yankees would trade Hicks this winter, so he’s all but assured of starting next season in pinstripes. And, with Didi Gregorius out indefinitely, there’s a pretty good chance Hicks will be the Opening Day No. 3 hitter to split up the two big righties in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees gambled on Hicksie’s tools and upside three years ago and have been rewarded handsomely.

Thoughts after the Yankees re-sign Brett Gardner

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(Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

The Yankees handled their first piece of offseason business yesterday when they brought Brett Gardner back for 2019. Officially, they declined his $12.5M option and paid him a $2M buyout, then signed him to a new one-year deal worth $7.5M. Gardner takes home $9.5M but the luxury tax bill is only $7.5M next year. Here are some thoughts on Gardner’s return.

1. Gardner’s playing time should be reduced next season and I think the Yankees realize that. That’s why they re-signed him at a lower salary. If they thought he was still an everyday player, they would’ve picked up the $12.5M option and been done with it. (The $2M buyout means it was a $10.5M decision and that’s a good price for an everyday outfielder.) Heck, in Spring Training this year Aaron Boone said plan was to reduce Gardner’s workload, but that didn’t happen because Judge got hurt and Stanton had the hamstring problem in the second half. They needed Gardner to play. I think that, in a perfect world, Gardner would be a bottom of the order guy who gets 350-400 plate appearances against righties and also comes in for defense in the late innings. He needs the regular time off his feet — Gardner’s always played all out and that tends to take its toll once you get into your mid-30s — and he needs to be sheltered against lefties. That should be the plan, I think. Bottom of the lineup guy who faces righties. Nothing more.

2. In order to lower Gardner’s workload, the Yankees will have to play Giancarlo Stanton in the field more often next season. I was surprised at how little he played the field early in the season. I know he had the hamstring in the second half, but only 47 starts in the outfield in 94 games in the first half? It probably would’ve been fewer too had Aaron Hicks not missed two weeks with an intercostal strain in April. Stanton’s a good defender! He looked a little lost in left field at first, but was fine out there by the end of the season. He just needed a little time. I thought Judge would get more time at DH than he actually did in the first half. With Gardner needing to play less, more Stanton in left field is the way to make it happen. I didn’t like that Giancarlo was close to a full-time DH when his hamstring was healthy in the first half. Feels like a waste of his defense. I hope to see him out there a little more often. It means more DH time for everyone else and a little less wear and tear overall.

3. You can never say never when it comes to big market team and a star player in his mid-20s, but it sure seems like Gardner’s deal closes the door on a Bryce Harper signing. The Yankees have four big league outfielders (Gardner, Hicks, Judge, Stanton) plus two unknowns (Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier) and I don’t see where Harper fits. The Yankees didn’t re-sign Gardner only to trade him. That’s a video game move, not a real life move. (Gardner has five-and-ten no-trade protection anyway.) Judge isn’t going anywhere. Stanton’s not going anywhere either. Trade Hicks for a pitcher? Okay, maybe, but who plays center field? Surely not 35-year-old Gardner on an everyday basis. Harper or Judge out there doesn’t seem like a good idea either. Unless they exceed the luxury tax threshold next year, the Yankees don’t really have the payroll room for a monster signing anyway. If they do make a huge signing though, it seems to me it would be Manny Machado over Harper. The outfield is full and the infield has a great big opening with Didi Gregorius out. Machado makes more sense given the roster.

4. So what were the alternatives to Gardner? Harper is a special case, obviously. The best non-Harper free agent outfielders are Michael Brantley (probably a DH going forward), A.J. Pollock (hurt all the time), and Andrew McCutchen (I like him, but I don’t multi-year contract like him). Those three are better players than Gardner, unquestionably in my mind, but those dudes are all getting much larger contracts. The Yankees are working on a budget — we don’t know if it’s the $206M luxury tax threshold or something else, but there’s a budget — and it stands to reason most of it is going to pitching. Spending big on what amounts to a fourth outfielder ain’t the best use of resources, you know? Free agent outfielders in Gardner’s price range include … uh … Carlos Gonzalez? Adam Jones? Lonnie Chisenhall? Curtis Granderson? Granderson is forever cool with me and I would’ve been a-okay with him as a Gardner replacement. The other stopgaps options don’t excite me. On one hand, replacing Gardner would’ve been a piece of cake. There are always corner outfielders available. Sign Jon Jay or Denard Span, for example. On the other hand, I don’t think there’s a big difference between these guys in bottom line production, and there’s no transition here. The Yankees know what they’re getting and Gardner knows what he’s getting into. It’s a relatively cheap one-year contract. I have no problems with it as long as the plan is to reduce his workload.

5. I don’t think the signing tells us anything about Ellsbury’s and particularly Frazier’s status. Ellsbury’s dead weight at this point. I don’t think he’s a factor in the team’s decision-making at all. Nothing the Yankees can do about him. Frazier is a young player with upside though, and now Gardner is ostensibly blocking his path to playing time next year. I don’t buy that at all. First of all, we don’t even know if Frazier will be healthy come Spring Training. He’s recovering from the post-concussion migraines and the Yankees say he’ll be ready for camp, but you can never be too sure with these things. We need to see Clint healthy before we start worrying about where he plays, you know? And, once Frazier is healthy, I think the Yankees will find a way to get him in the lineup. If that means less playing time for Gardner, so be it. Right now Frazier has four veterans ahead of him on the outfield depth chart. These things always take care of themselves though. Always. Last year Clint getting hurt is how the outfield logjam was cleared up. Hopefully he gets healthy this winter, reports to camp as a full player without restrictions, and forces the Yankees to put him into the lineup.

6. Truth be told, Gardner might not have been brought back had Frazier stayed healthy and aced a big league audition this past season. Give the Yankees a truth serum and I think they’d tell you the perfect world scenario for next season is Frazier coming to camp healthy, getting a few weeks worth of at-bats in Triple-A to get up to speed, then gradually taking playing time away from Gardner in the second half before taking over left field for good next year. That would be the ideal transition out of the Gardner era and into the Frazier era. Things never go that smoothly, of course, but that’s what I think the Yankees want to happen. Barring an unexpectedly massive season, I think next year will be Gardner’s last as a Yankee, and if Frazier is able to replace him, great. If not, the Yankees will find someone else.

Yankees sign Brett Gardner to new one-year deal for 2019

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(Rich Schultz/Getty)

The unofficial captain of the Yankees will be back next season. The Yankees announced this afternoon that they have signed Brett Gardner to a new one-year contract after declining his $12.5M club option. Mark Feinsand says the new deal is worth $7.5M. There’s no word on whether the contract includes any playing time bonuses. Probably not.

“I’m very excited,” Gardner said to Feinsand. “I wasn’t sure what to expect at the end of the season, but being able to come back and rejoin this special group of guys we have in place, continue my career in a Yankees uniform — and hopefully finish it in a Yankees uniform — it means a great deal to me. We have some unfinished business. It was tough to sit back and watch the rest of the postseason this year. It was a great learning experience for us; we have a young team and had a great season, but came up short of our goal.”

All told, Gardner ends up with $9.5M in real dollars. The Yankees paid him a $2M buyout when they declined the option and he gets a $7.5M salary next year. For luxury tax purposes, the $2M buyout was spread across 2015-18 since it was guaranteed money as part of Gardner’s previous deal. His luxury tax hit next year will be $7.5M. The Yankees have approximately $42.2M in payroll space under next year’s $206M luxury tax threshold.

Gardner, 35, is the longest tenured Yankee. He hit .236/.322/.368 (90 wRC+) overall this past season and was much better in the first half (106 wRC+) than the second (66 wRC+). Gardner was also quite a bit better against righties (95 wRC+) than lefties (74 RC+). In a perfect world, he would platoon in left field with Clint Frazier next year, but Frazier’s concussion issues make him an unknown at the moment.

There’s still an entire offseason to play out, but it stands to reason the Yankees will go into next year with Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Aaron Judge in the outfield with Giancarlo Stanton again roving around between the corner outfield spots and DH. Frazier could be in the mix as well. Jacoby Ellsbury is currently rehabbing from hip surgery and Brian Cashman said he may not be ready for Opening Day.

The Yankees love Gardner and he’s a leader in the clubhouse, and I always expected him to come back. Gardner didn’t want to leave either. The only question was whether the team would pick up the option or work out a new contract. A new contract it is. Gardner comes back at a lower salary and gets to stay with the only team he’s known. Works for me. Now the Yankees can focus on the rotation.

DotF: Albert Abreu begins winter ball assignment

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The 2018 Arizona Fall League Fall Stars Games will be played this Saturday and yes, it will be televised. MLB Network and MLB.com will have the broadcast live at 8pm ET. Hooray for real live baseball. Here are some minor league notes before we get to the winter ball updates.

  • Here are the Fall Stars Game rosters: East and West. OF Estevan Florial will represent the Yankees, though IF Thairo Estrada was on the Final 2 ballot and the winner hasn’t been announced yet. (Sorry I didn’t pass along the link sooner. My bad.) The Fall Stars Game is more of top prospects showcase than an All-Star Game that rewards performance. It’s the biggest names.
  • Randy Miller spoke to a scout about all the players the Yankees have in the AzFL. “If Florial was in this year’s draft, he probably would have gone in the first five picks. He’ll figure it out. The good ones figure it out, and he’s a good one,” said the scout.
  • Rob Terranova has an article on RHP Matt Wivinis. “Everything he throws is above average. The spin rate he gets on all his pitches is off the charts — in particular his breaking stuff. That’s why he gets a ton of swings and misses. And he’s got two different fastballs that have a lot of life,” said Yankees pitching coordinator Danny Borrell.
  • I haven’t listened to it yet myself, but Baseball America posted a Yankees farm system podcast today, so check that out.

Arizona Fall League

  • IF Thairo Estrada: 12 G, 14-for-52 (.269), 7 R, 1 2B, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 10 K, 1 CS, 1 HBP (.269/.321/.288) — he is 8-for-19 (.421) in his last four games following a slow start
  • OF Estevan Florial: 14 G, 8-for-49 (.163), 6 R, 2 2B, 2 3B, 7 RBI, 7 BB, 19 K, 1 SB, 1 CS (.163/.268/.286) — he is 5-for-14 (.357) in his last four games
  • 1B Steven Sensley: 13 G, 11-for-49 (.224), 4 R, 3 2B, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 HBP (.224/.269/.286)
  • RHP Jordan Foley: 4 G, 4 GS, 8.1 IP, 11 H, 13 R, 13 ER, 8 BB, 14 K, 1 HR, 1 HB (14.04 ERA and 2.28 WHIP)
  • RHP Hobie Harris: 5 G, 9 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 7 K (5.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP) — had a strong regular season at three levels and is Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter, though he’s not really doing himself any favors in the AzFL
  • RHP Matt Wivinis: 7 G, 9.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 6 BB, 11 K, 1 HBP (0.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP)
  • RHP Kyle Zurak: 5 G, 4.2 IP, 10 H, 11 R, 9 ER, 7 BB, 2 K, 1 HR (17.36 ERA and 3.64 WHIP) — terrible AzFL showing so far, but it wouldn’t surprise me if last year’s eighth rounder is the next out of nowhere relief prospect in the system … good fastball, good breaking ball, etc.

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