River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » 2011 ALDS » Page 5

The Most Important Game

by 99 Comments

The playoffs are such a different dynamic than the regular season. The regular season is this long marathon where you’ve got to think about the long-term, keeping people fresh for August and September and knowing when to take your foot off today’s gas for tomorrow’s commute. The playoffs are not like that though, everything has to focus on right here, right now because you don’t know what will happen next game, next inning, next batter.

“Tomorrow is big,” said Alex Rodriguez after Game Two. “Going back to when I first got here, we always thought that Game Three was the biggest. It’s almost like hitting; the 0-0 pitch is the most important, then the 1-1 pitch becomes the most important. Same goes for a series.”

When Joe Torre was managing, I remember hearing him say that he felt Game Two was the most important game of the series, which is why he always tried to line Andy Pettitte up for that start. The idea was that if you were down in the series, you could even it up. If you were up, you had a chance to really put your foot on the other team’s throat. Either way, A-Rod’s theory and Torre’s theory are both wrong. The most important game is today’s game, regardless of what number game it is in the best-of-X series.

No one has any idea what will happen tomorrow or the next day. You might think you know based on the pitching matchups and whatnot, but you don’t. I promise you, you don’t. And I don’t either. No one does. That’s why planning and managing for tomorrow in a short series rather than focus on what’s happening at the moment can be a season killer. Saving your top bench bat for a ninth-inning pinch-hitting appearance rather than using him in the seventh, limiting your top reliever to three outs instead of five or six today so you have him again tomorrow … all prime examples of what not to do in the postseason. It’s all about right now, which is why October is so different than April through September.

Joe Girardi went with Luis Ayala in the ninth inning yesterday for that reason, because he was basically saving his top relievers for today (and tomorrow). I didn’t like it, but what’s done is done, and the Yankees are now in a real nice position going into Game Three. Rafael Soriano and David Robertson are very well rested, to the point where asking each guy to get six outs tonight would not be insane. Mariano Rivera, despite Saturday’s three-pitch appearance, is well rested as well, and I don’t see why he couldn’t get four or five outs if needed. Of course that luxury is born out of a poor process, which is bringing in Ayala yesterday. Girardi can’t control results, he can’t make guys execute pitches or hit line drives to the gaps, all he can do is put his players and his team in a position to succeed. He didn’t do that with Ayala yesterday, but the trickle down effect is that it (theoretically) helps the team today, in the most important game.

Division series loss an unfamiliar feeling

by 72 Comments

Yesterday the Yankees experienced something that hadn’t happened since 2007: they lost a game in the divisional round of the playoffs. The previous loss ended their season and drove the them to seek new management. This loss brings neither consequence. In fact, this loss could have been seen as inevitable, since the Tigers are not the Twins and therefore will not lay down in the ALDS. Make no mistake, though: despite what you might hear, the Yankees are still in prime position to advance.

If you’re the type that pays attention to what the traditional media writes, you might think the Yankees are in poor position now. After all, there are just three games left, and Detroit plays two of them at home. Detroit also starts their ace and presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner, Justin Verlander, in the first of this fresh three-game set. Combine that with closer Jose Valverde’s prediction, that the Tigers would take the next two games, and you have a recipe for Yankees defeat.

That is, you’d have a recipe for defeat if the above paragraph wasn’t filled with tripe. Valverde’s statement means nothing. He’s teetered on the edge of defeat all season without actually experiencing it, and he could easily cause his team to lose one of those next two games. As for home field advantage, we’ve seen so many postseason instances where it has meant nothing. Yes, the home team does generally win more games than the away team. But when we narrow the field to the best four teams in the league, and we set the standard to a mere five-game series, that goes out the window. There’s no sense in quoting the odds for that type of sample.

(In fact, only two World Series participants in the last five years have swept the LDS: the Yankees in 2009 and the Rockies in 2007.)

In Justin Verlander the Yankees face one of their toughest challenges of the year. There is no doubt that Verlander will win — has already won — the 2011 AL Cy Young Award. His numbers stood out in every way, from his gaudy innings total to his minuscule ERA. But if we dig just a little deeper, we can see that his opponent tonight, CC Sabathia, hasn’t lagged far behind. So while the Yankees will face a tough challenge, so will the Tigers.

Verlander threw more innings, struck out more per nine, walked fewer per nine, and allowed fewer runs than CC Sabathia. Those surface numbers certainly make his Cy Young case. Sabathia did perform better than Verlander in one aspect: suppressing home runs. He allowed just 17, while Verlander allowed 24. Sabathia’s home run total is even more impressive when we look at that one game against the Rays, in which he allowed five solo shots. We can’t remove them from his record, since they did happen. But we can put that in perspective and note that he allowed just 12 homers in his other 32 starts.

Still, that isn’t the greatest difference between Sabathia and Verlander. That difference occurs when we examine the quality of opponents each faced. Sabathia faced the ninth most difficult hitters in the AL this season. That is, only nine pitchers in the AL faced tougher hitters than he did, as measured by overall opponents’ OPS. Unsurprisingly, seven of the eight pitchers ahead of him pitch in the AL East. Ivan Nova ranks 13th on that list, Bartolo Colon 14th, and A.J. Burnett 17th. Verlander’s name doesn’t appear until No. 39. His opponents combined for a 2011 OPS of .739, to CC’s .760. Verlander might have performed better, but CC turned in his impressive performance while facing tougher hitters.

The feeling that followed yesterday was a strange one, indeed. The last time Yankees fans felt it, the pain of a playoff series went with it. This is not the case this time around. In fact, the Yankees are still positioned to win this. Detroit’s greatest weapon goes tonight, but his greatest foil goes opposite him. Even if Detroit does squeak out Game 3, they’ll throw two hittable pitchers in Games 4 and 5. It might feel odd, this losing in the LDS thing, but it’s far from the end. It might even be the beginning.

ALDS Game Two: Tigers @ Yankees

by 1,197 Comments

Five years ago, the Yankees beat the Tigers in Game One of the ALDS. They lost the next three though. The Yankees took Game One of this year’s ALDS against  Detroit, and now they have to avoid the same problems that did them in back in 2006. That would be a shaky bullpen behind a banged up starting rotation and a lineup that mustered just six runs after the first game.

Robinson Cano and Ivan Nova set the pace last night. Cano did damage every time he stepped to the plate and Nova tossed up zero after zero. Today’s starter, Freddy Garcia, brings a completely different look to the table. He’ll try to lull the Tigers’ hitters to sleep with offspeed stuff, much like Mike Mussina tried to do after Chien-Ming Wang five years ago.

Andy Pettitte is throwing out the first pitch, like he’s done in countless Game Twos before. Here are the lineups…

Detroit Tigers
Austin Jackson, CF
Magglio Ordonez,  RF
Delmon Young, LF
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Victor Martinez, DH
Alex Avila, C
Jhonny Peralta, SS
Wilson Betemit, 3B
Ramon Santiago, 2B

Max Scherzer, SP

New York Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Robinson Cano, 2B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Nick Swisher, RF
Jorge Posada, DH
Russell Martin, C
Brett Gardner, LF

Freddy Garcia, SP

The weather in New York is gorgeous, a little chilly but a big blue sky. The game starts at 3:07pm ET and can be seen on TNT (not TBS). Remember, we’re trying to win a ring around here.

2011 ALDS: Previewing Max Scherzer

by 20 Comments

(Duane Burleson, AP)

When we previewed Doug Fister yesterday, I mentioned that he had a pretty loose connection to the Yankees. Max Scherzer’s connection to New York is much more ironclad. The 27-year-old right-hander was one of the seven players involved in the three-team trade that brought Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, though he went from the Diamondbacks to the Tigers. Scherzer will be charged with getting his team back in the series this afternoon following their Game One loss.

Performance

Scherzer started the year as Detroit’s number two starter behind Justin Verlander, but he basically pitched his way out of that role by posting a 4.90 ERA (~4.40 FIP) through his first 18 starts. That’s part of the reason why went out and traded for Fister. Scherzer finished well, pitching to a 3.89 ERA (~3.80 FIP) in his final 15 starts.

Always a high strikeout guy, Scherzer’s strikeout rate decreased for the third straight season, down to a still stellar 8.03 K/9. He’s gotten the walks under control (2.58 BB/9) but is a fly ball guy (40.3% grounders). I guess the best way to describe Scherzer is enigmatic; he had 20 starts of two runs or less, but also nine with five runs or more.

Pitch Selection

(via Texas Leaguers and FanGraphs)

Scherzer is basically two two-pitch pitchers. He’ll rely on the fastball and slider against righties, and then the fastball and changeup against lefties. All three offerings have been essentially average this year (not much difference between ±0.5 runs from average per 100 pitches and zero), but the pure velocity of his fastball and the ten mile an hour separation between the heat and soft stuff make him tough to handle. Some deception in his delivery, courtesy of one of the most violent head whacks you’ll ever see, helps his cause. Scherzer is definitely one of those guys with better stuff than results, but power repertoires always seem to play up this time of year.

Pitching Pattern

(via FanGraphs)

It’s all fastball, all the time. Even when he’s ahead in the count, there’s still better than a 50-50 chance that Scherzer will go to his heat. I guess when you throw that hard, you should be proud of your fastball. [/Flaherty’d] Scherzer has been quite a bit better at home than on the road, and I’m guessing that’s at least part of the reason why they scheduled him to pitch Game Three in Detroit. The weather threw a wrench into that, so perhaps the Yankees benefit. The good news is that they were the third best fastball hitting team in baseball this year, so Scherzer plays right to their strengths.

Nova, Cano lead Yanks to Game One win

by 144 Comments

More than 24 hours after starting, Game One of the ALDS is officially in the books. The Yankees rode two of their best young homegrown players to a blowout win over the Tigers, giving them a one game to none lead in the best-of-five series.

(Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

Before The Rain

As you know, this game really started on Friday night. The Yankees and Tigers got just an inning and a half in before rain forced the game to be suspended until Saturday, throwing a wrench into everyone’s pitching plans. CC Sabathia struck out four in his two innings of work, the only blemish a Yankee Stadium special solo homer from Delmon Young. Justin Verlander walked two and allowed a run without letting a ball out of the infield in his inning. It’s a shame, it looked like CC was on and Verlander was struggling. Alas, the skies opened up and we’ll see these two aces in Game Three on Monday.

He hit that one to Alburquerque. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Have Yourself A Night, Robinson

Just before the playoffs, the Yankees decided to switch up their lineup just a little bit, installing Robinson Cano as the number three hitter against righties while Mark Teixiera slid down to fifth. One game into the playoffs, the move has been a smashing success.

The score was still tied at one in the bottom of the fifth, and Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter combined for two quick outs. Two outs is the perfect time for a go-ahead rally, so Curtis Granderson did the honors of singling to right to extend the inning. Doug Fister, who we’ll talk about in a little while, caught just enough of the plate with a 1-1 fastball, and Cano smashed it out to left. I thought it was gone off the bat, but the ball hit off the table top of the left field wall and bounced back into the field of play. Umpires reviewed the play and (correctly) ruled it a double, but Granderson scored from first anyway. Cano had given the Yankees a 2-1 lead, and he wasn’t close to being done.

Just one inning later, the Yankees really had something cooking. Gardner singled in a pair of runs after Tex doubled (to the opposite field!), Jorge Posada walked, and Russell Martin moved them up with a ground ball. Jeter singled to put runners on the corners, stole second uncontested to put men at second and third, then Granderson drew a walk to load the bases. That was the end of Fister’s day, and in came strikeout machine Al Alburquerque. Alburquerque misses a ton of bats with his slider, but Cano doesn’t miss many sliders when they hang up in the zone. Robbie hit a no-doubt grand slam into the second deck to right, blowing the game open and giving the Yankees a nice seven-run cushion. In 43.1 regular season innings, Alburquerque allowed zero homeruns. That changed two pitches into his postseason career.

Cano added another run-scoring double in the eighth, stretching the lead to 9-1 and allowing him to finish the day 3-for-5 with two doubles and the salami. It was the Yankees first postseason grand slam since Ricky Ledee victimized Rod Beck of the Red Sox in Game Four of the 1999 ALCS. Cano’s six runs driven in are a new Yankees LDS record, and the most by someone wearing pinstripes since Hideki Matsui went off on the Phillies in Game Six of the 2009 World Series. I think he’ll be just fine hitting third, just fine.

Super Duper Nova

(Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

It technically wasn’t a start, but who cares? Ivan Nova was absolute money in “relief” of Sabathia, taking the ball to start the third inning and leading the Yankees right to the ninth. He ran into one real jam in the fifth (more on that in a bit), but otherwise did not allow more than one runner on base in an inning until things were all but decided in the ninth. New York’s number two starter struck out five and it seemed like every one came in a big spot, and he got six other outs on the ground.

The two runs Nova allowed came when he was out of the game, otherwise known as garbage time. A Delmon line drive to the foot in the ninth seemed to slow him a bit, but there’s no shame in that. Nova came up huge against a pitcher that came into the game with much more hype, and he’s the reason the Yankees have a one-game lead in the series right now. Cano’s contributions were obviously huge, but Nova really carried the team on his back.

(AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)

This Ain’t The AL Central, Doug

The Yankees are now 3-0 in the three games they faced Verlander this year, but this isn’t about him. It’s about the job the Yankees did against Fister, who the MSM would have liked you to believe was second coming of Roy Halladay because of his September performance. He allowed the first two batters he faced to reach base, but then retired eleven men in the row. The Yankees showed no mercy the second and third time thought the order; seven of the next ten men they sent to the plate reached base. Fister’s final line was six runs on seven hits and two walks in just 4.2 IP, the first time he allowed more than two runs in an outing since August 14th, his third start as a Tigers. It’s almost like facing seven AL Central teams in your last eight regular season outings can skew your performance.

Cano was obviously the highlight on offense, but this was a total team effort. Gardner’s two-run single in the fifth (in an 0-2 count, no less) was big because it gave the Yankees some breathing room before Cano broke it open. Granderson reached base three times in five plate appearances (the single and two walks), and he saw a total of 30 pitches. That’s huge. Jeter had a pair of hits, and the five through nine hitters all had one hit. Teixeira and Posada added walks. Alex Rodriguez was the only Yankees not to reach base, going 0-for-5 with two strikeouts and the RBI groundout on Friday.

(Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Leftovers

Underrated moment sure to be forgotten because of the blowout: Alex Avila getting thrown out at the plate fifth inning. Nova started to show some kinks in the armor that inning, allowing a walk and two straight singles. Avila chugged around third on the second single, but Jeter’s relay throw from Granderson to home was picture perfect. Martin had plenty of time to apply the tag, the second out of what would be a scoreless inning. If that run scores, all of a sudden the Tigers are up one with men on the corners and just one out. Who knows what happens then.

Gotta mention Posada’s latest stupid baserunning blunder. The Yankees had runners on second and third with no outs against Fister in the second inning, and for whatever reason, Posada broke for home on Gardner’s ground ball to third. He got hung up on the bases and was tagged out. The out completely changed the inning, because instead of second and third with one out, it was first and second with one out. Yes, Fister balked the runners over, but Derek Jeter was already behind in the count by then. Didn’t come back to hurt, but good grief.

In my series preview, I said that the only way to contain the great Miguel Cabrera was by keeping runners off base in front of him. Miggy went 0-for-3 with a walk, but more importantly, he came to the plate just once with men on base, and that wasn’t until the game was all but decided in the ninth inning. Cano, his three-hole hitter counterpart, had runners on base in four of his five plate appearances. Story of the game right there.

Unfortunately, Mariano Rivera was pressed into action when Luis Ayala couldn’t record the final two outs of the game after Nova exited. He only threw three pitches (a strikeout, of course), but these two clubs will play three games in the next three days. Wasting some of those bullets with a six-run lead, even if the bases were loaded, is not inconsequential*.

* Just be clear, I’m not complaining about Mo being used, just that Ayala was so awful that Rivera had to be used. This one’s on Luis.

With 50,940 fans in attendance, this was the largest paid attendance in New Yankee Stadium history, regular season or playoffs. I’m guessing the suspension had something to do with that, I’m sure a few people hit up the secondary market Saturday morning.

Box Score & WPA Graph

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs some other stats.

Up Next

Sunday was supposed to be an off day, but these two teams will play Game Two of the series because of the rain. That one starts at 3:07pm ET, and will feature Freddy Garcia and Max Scherzer.

ALDS Game One: Tigers @ Yankees

by 917 Comments

Let’s try this again. Last night’s game was suspended due to rain that was apparently heavier than expected, so the two teams will pick up right where they left off. The score is tied at one through an inning and a half, and Jorge Posada is scheduled to lead off the bottom of the second inning. CC Sabathia allowed a solo homer to Delmon Young and struck out four in his two innings while Justin Verlander walked two and allowed a run on a ground out in his only inning.

The lineups below are the same ones as last night since this is just a continuation of that game. That hurts the Tigers somewhat because they loaded their lineup with right-handed bats against Sabathia, but now get the right-handed Ivan Nova. Here’s the problem though: it’s supposed to rain again tonight. MLB has already said they will not play a doubleheader in the postseason, and if they have to suspend the game again, they would simply push everything back a day and forfeit Wednesday’s off day, if need be. What a mess.

Detroit Tigers
Austin Jackson, CF
Magglio Ordonez,  RF
Delmon Young, LF
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Victor Martinez, DH
Alex Avila, C
Ryan Raburn, 2B
Jhonny Peralta, SS
Brandon Inge, 3B

Doug Fister, SP RP

New York Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Robinson Cano, 2B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Nick Swisher, RF
Jorge Posada, DH
Russell Martin, C
Brett Gardner, LF

Ivan Nova, SP RP

The game is scheduled to restart at 8:37pm ET, and you’ll be able to watch on TBS and listen on either WCBS 880 or ESPN Radio. Remember, we’re trying to win a ring around here.