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River Ave. Blues » Troy Tulowitzki » Page 2

Repeating past mistakes have come back to haunt the Yankees

April 5, 2019 by Derek Albin

(Presswire)

It took six games for Troy Tulowitzki to wind up on the injured list. Banking on him to be the stopgap shortstop while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery was a high risk decision from the get go, and it’s already come back to bite the Yankees. I feel bad for Tulowitzki; his return could have been a feel-good story this season (and maybe still could). For a team in contention, it was never a good idea to count a player absent from the majors since 2017. It doesn’t matter how he looked in his offseason workouts.

Gambling on Tulowitzki was a move straight out of the 2013 and 2014 playbook. Those were highly forgettable Yankees teams that somehow finished above .500 while missing the playoffs. The likes of Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Brian Roberts, Kevin Youkilis, and Ichiro Suzuki were counted on as regulars. All of those players were either past their primes, injury prone, or both. Tulowitzki fits that mold.

Some of the aforementioned players actually got off to good starts in pinstripes. I recall Hafner and Wells raking early on. Pronk had a 198 wRC+ in the first month of 2013. Wells posted a 150 wRC+ during the same period. Things went (steeply) downhill from there. Others like Youkilis and Roberts never contributed much at all, and didn’t even last on the roster all season. Ichiro hit well when he was acquired in 2012, but was surprisingly signed a two-year deal thereafter.

Tulowitzki never really got a chance to show any semblance of his old self. Maybe he’ll be back much sooner than we anticipate, but it’s easy to be skeptical of his belief that it’s a relatively minor calf injury. At this point, as Mike noted, the Yankees have exhausted just about all of their depth, so they actually need him back. And that gets us back to the point: it’s a problem that the Yankees relied on Tulowitzki to be their starting shortstop.

DJ LeMahieu was ostensibly the contingency plan for Tulowitzki. It’s not that he’s a bad fallback, but rather, the issue is that it forces Gleyber Torres to spend less time learning a fairly new position, second base. Torres is capable of playing short, but if the Yankees have any intention of retaining Didi Gregorius, it would make sense to give Torres as many reps at the keystone as possible. That means having a more tenable shortstop during Gregorius’s absence would have been ideal.

This injury serves as yet another reminder that the Yankees passed on Manny Machado this past winter. I know, I know, you’re all tired of hearing about that. I’d rather not discuss it either. But what choice do we have? Sure, Machado could have become another one of the team’s walking wounded. However, that would have came as a surprise, unlike Tulowitzki.

It’s a rare opportunity to acquire a young superstar in the prime of their career for only money. The team could regret the decision for years to come. You think they regret letting Robinson Cano walk in favor of Brian Roberts? There were some dark years before the team finally found Starlin Castro and ultimately Gleyber. And sure, you can say that the Yankees had better internal options now as compared to Cano’s walk year, with Andujar and Gregorius on the left side of the infield. But who knows how Gregorius, and now Andujar, return from their injuries. It’s better to acquire as much high floor talent as possible and sort things out later if everyone is healthy at the same time. Instead, the Yankees went for the cheap low floor option with a low probability of significant contribution.

Filed Under: Musings Tagged With: Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Manny Machado, Troy Tulowitzki

Game Seven: The First Road Trip

April 4, 2019 by Mike

(Rob Carr/Getty)

For the first time this season, the Yankees are out on the road. Three games in four days in Baltimore, then three games in three days in Houston. Maybe leaving Yankee Stadium will help get this team out of its funk. Then again, unless the road trip can heal injuries, probably not. The Yankees are really beat up right now.

“The Major League season is a gauntlet filled with adverse situations all the time. They come in many shapes and sizes throughout the year, even in the best of seasons,” said Aaron Boone to Ken Davidoff yesterday. “I’ll hang my hat on our group and know we’ll fight our way through this and get it rolling.”

While the injuries have taken a bite out of the lineup, the Yankees also aren’t getting much from the healthy players other than Aaron Judge and DJ LeMahieu. The other regulars have to get going, especially with guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, and Aaron Hicks not around to pick up the slack. Here are today’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. DH Luke Voit
4. C Gary Sanchez
5. 1B Greg Bird
6. 3B DJ LeMahieu
7. SS Gleyber Torres
8. LF Clint Frazier
9. 2B Tyler Wade

LHP James Paxton

Baltimore Orioles
1. 2B Jonathan Villar
2. LF Dwight Smith Jr.
3. RF Trey Mancini
4. DH Renato Nunez
5. 3B Rio Ruiz
6. CF Joey Rickard
7. 1B Chris Davis
8. C Jesus Sucre
9. SS Richie Martin

RHP Alex Cobb


It is cool and partly cloudy in Baltimore for the O’s home opener this afternoon. No rain in the forecast, thankfully. Today’s game will begin at 3:05pm ET and you can watch on the YES Network. Try to enjoy.

Roster Move: As expected, Troy Tulowitzki (calf) has been placed on the 10-day injured list. He’ll rest a few days then be reevaluated. “It’s unfortunate, but like I’ve shared with the guys, it’s never easy. Sometimes it makes your team a little bit better because it tests that depth,” Tulowitzki said to Bryan Hoch. Thairo Estrada has been called up to fill the roster spot. He’s wearing No. 30 and this is his first stint in the big leagues.

Injury Updates: Aaron Hicks (back) has started baseball activities. Hooray for that. Specifically, he has started playing catch, and will soon begin taking dry swings and hitting off a tee. Hicks has been shut down more than a month now, so he likely has several weeks of baseball activities and rehab games ahead of him … Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery) is still going through light baseball activities. “He’s doing some activity, running on the field, doing some stuff with tee and toss and stuff like that. He’s just had the little pullbacks here and there with the different things he’s dealing with,” Boone said to Hoch.

Filed Under: Game Threads Tagged With: Aaron Hicks, Jacoby Ellsbury, Thairo Estrada, Troy Tulowitzki

Troy Tulowitzki exits today’s game with a left calf strain

April 3, 2019 by Mike

(Presswire)

7:11pm ET: Tulowitzki has what Aaron Boone called a low-grade strain, and said it is likely an injured list situation. I mean, duh. There’s no word on who the Yankees will call up just yet.

5:14pm ET: The seemingly inevitable Troy Tulowitzki injury has arrived. Tulowitzki was removed from this afternoon’s game in the fourth inning with a left calf strain, the Yankees announced. He popped up in his only at-bat and made a nice play going to his right in the second inning.

With Tulowitzki out, Gleyber Torres shifted from second base to shortstop and Tyler Wade took over at second. The Yankees have already dipped deep into their position player depth this year. Next in line for a call-up is, uh, Thairo Estrada coming off a lost season? Gio Urshela? Who knows at this point.

The Yankees say Tulowitzki is heading for tests, and, given his history, it’s safe to assume he’s going to miss some time. Calf strains usually aren’t a day-to-day thing. Most of the injuries this year have been unforeseen. Now the guy everyone expected to get hurt got hurt.

Filed Under: Injuries Tagged With: Troy Tulowitzki

Yankeemetrics: Orioles Deja Vu (March 28-31)

April 1, 2019 by Katie Sharp

(New York Times)

March 28: The Legend of Luke
One down, 161 to go. For the second year in a row, the Yankees kicked off their schedule with a win, 7-2 over the Orioles. It marked the first time in more than a decade they’ve had back-to-back season-opening victories, since winning four in a row from 2005-08. The seven runs scored were their most in a win on Opening Day since 2007 when they beat the Rays 9-5.

Luke Voit got the party started early with a three-run first-inning dinger, crushing an 87 mph hanging slider 428 feet into the centerfield seats. Last year he struggled to drive breaking pitches, posting an average exit velocity of just 88 mph while whiffing on 40 percent on those offerings. He saw 217 curves and sliders in 2018, and cranked just one of them out of the park.

Thursday’s home run gave him 15 homers in his first 40 regular-season games with the Yankees — a 162-game pace of 61 homers. He added another RBI when was plunked with the bases loaded in the fifth. #FunFact alert! Voit is the third Yankee cleanup hitter with at least four RBI on Opening Day, joining Alex Rodriguez (2006) and Yogi Berra (1956).

Masahiro Tanaka, making his fourth career Opening Day start (the most by a Japanese-born pitcher), was solid and efficient in his 83-pitch outing, allowing two runs (one earned) while striking out five and walking none in 5 2/3 innings.

He earned our Obscure Yankeemetric of the game for that effort, becoming one of three Yankee Opening Day starters to give up no more than one earned run with at least five strikeouts and no walks. The others: Catfish Hunter (1977) and Mel Stottlemyre (1968).

(Newsday)

March 30: Too little, too late
There will be no perfect season in the Bronx. Bummer. Cold bats and sloppy defense are a good recipe for a loss, and the Yankees followed that script to near perfection on Saturday afternoon in 5-3 defeat.

Despite putting 16 runners on base, the Yankees scored only three runs. As frustrating as the team’s situational hitting was last year, they produced that poor combo — more than 15 baserunners and three or fewer runs in a game just once (5-3 loss to Braves on July 2).

The newcomers provided most of the highlights as DJ LeMahieu got his first hit and RBI as a Yankee, Troy Tulowitzki smoked his first home run in pinstripes and James Paxton had a strong debut on the mound.

Paxton showed off his impressive fastball in holding the Orioles to two runs (one earned) on four hits with five punchouts in 5 2/3 innings. He kept the pitch away from the heart of the zone, getting a bunch of called strikes on the edges with the four-seamer while also elevating his heater for swinging strikes.

(source: Statcast)

Last year Paxton ranked ninth among starters (min. 500 pitches) with a 25.6 percent swing-and-miss rate on his four-seam fastball — and he matched that number on Saturday as the Orioles swung at 32 of his four-seamers and whiffed eight times (25.0%).

Tulowitzki’s longball was a rare 358-foot opposite field solo shot in the ninth inning. Tulo has plenty of pop — he is one of seven players in MLB history with at least 200 homers as a shortstop — but most of that has been pull-side power in recent years: 45 of his 48 homers from 2015-17 went to left field.

(AP)

March 31: Rinse, repeat, RISPFail
With a chance to salvage a series win against the Orioles on Sunday afternoon, the Yankees again failed miserably in clutch situations and suffered another disappointing loss, 7-5. This is the second straight season they dropped an early-season series at the Stadium against the Orioles.

Over the last two seasons, they are 2-5 vs the Orioles in April and 11-4 vs them in May thru September. The Yankees are also 5-7 at home vs the Orioles since the start of last season, the only team they have faced at least five times and have a losing record against in the Bronx.

In losing the final two games, the Yankees went 5-for-21 with runners in scoring position and stranded a combined 25 baserunners (11 on Saturday and 14 on Sunday). It was their most in a two-game span since June 12-13, 2017 when the also left 25 guys on base in the first two games of a series against the Angels. They actually split those two contests, so to find the last time the Yankees stranded 25-plus men in a two-game stretch and lost both games, you have to go back nearly three years to April 15-16, 2016 against the Mariners. Gross.

One player who has avoided the RISP-fail plague to start the season is DJ LeMahieu, who had two hits and an RBI for the second straight day. That effort earned him our Obscure Yankeemetric of the game, becoming part of an eclectic group of six players to have two-plus hits and at least one RBI in each of their first two games with the Yankees. The other five legendary names: John Olerud (2004), Don Slaught (1988), Hector Lopez (1959), Joe DiMaggio (1936) and Pat Collins (1926).

Giving up three homers to the O’s didn’t help the winning cause, either, as J.A. Happ was tagged for two of those longballs and Stephen Tarpley coughed up his first career homer as a major-leaguer. In 69 2/3 innings with the Yankees (including playoffs), Happ has given up 13 homers, or a rate of 1.68 per nine innings pitched. If he posted that over an entire season, it would be the second-highest homer rate by a Yankee pitcher that qualified for the ERA title (highest is 1.77 by Masahiro Tanaka in 2017).

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: Baltimore Orioles, DJ LeMahieu, J.A. Happ, James Paxton, Luke Voit, Masahiro Tanaka, Stephen Tarpley, Troy Tulowitzki, Yankeemetrics

Update: Yankees finalize 2019 Opening Day roster

March 24, 2019 by Mike

German. (Presswire)

Sunday: Tyler Wade was optioned to Triple-A Scranton earlier today, the Yankees announced, clearing the way for new pickup Mike Tauchman to make the roster. Also, Aaron Boone told Coley Harvey that Stephen Tarpley will be in the bullpen, so between that and yesterday’s news, the pitching staff is set. Boone confirmed to Bryan Hoch that the updated roster below will in fact be the Opening Day roster.

Saturday: Although the official announcement will not come until Thursday morning, the Yankees have more or less finalized their 2019 Opening Day roster. Clint Frazier was sent to minor league camp Friday, taking him out of the running for the final bench spot, and George King reports Domingo German will be the 13th pitcher on the Opening Day roster.

Based on that, here is the 25-man Opening Day roster the Yankees will take into the regular season:

CATCHERS (2)
Austin Romine
Gary Sanchez

INFIELDERS (6)
3B Miguel Andujar
1B Greg Bird
IF DJ LeMahieu
2B/SS Gleyber Torres
SS Troy Tulowitzki
1B Luke Voit

OUTFIELDERS (4)
CF Brett Gardner
RF Aaron Judge
LF Giancarlo Stanton
UTIL Tyler Wade OF Mike Tauchman

STARTERS (5)
RHP Luis Cessa RHP Domingo German
LHP J.A. Happ
LHP James Paxton
RHP Masahiro Tanaka
LHP CC Sabathia (five-game suspension)

RELIEVERS (8)
LHP Zack Britton
LHP Aroldis Chapman
RHP Domingo German RHP Luis Cessa
RHP Chad Green
RHP Jonathan Holder
RHP Tommy Kahnle
RHP Adam Ottavino
LHP Stephen Tarpley


The Yankees will also have seven — seven! — players open the 2019 regular season on the injured list. The seven: Dellin Betances (shoulder), Jacoby Ellsbury (hip), Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery), Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery), Aaron Hicks (back), Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery), and Luis Severino (shoulder). Sabathia (knee) will become the eighth once his suspension ends.

At this point, the only spots still maybe up for grabs are Bird’s and Tarpley’s. Bird is supposedly fine but he has not played since taking a pitch to the elbow Wednesday. Given his history, I worry this will be something that lingers and forces him to be replaced on the Opening Day roster. Tarpley could be swapped out for someone like Gio Gonzalez or Jonathan Loaisiga, but nah, he’s pretty much a lock.

The Yankees have eight more big league Spring Training roster cuts to make: Nestor Cortes, Francisco Diaz, Raynel Espinal, Estevan Florial, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Jorge Saez. Florial will miss the next few weeks as he recovers from his broken wrist. Those cuts will happen soon (duh).

Filed Under: News Tagged With: Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Adam Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Austin Romine, Ben Heller, Brett Gardner, CC Sabathia, Chad Green, Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Domingo German, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird, J.A. Happ, Jacoby Ellsbury, James Paxton, Jonathan Holder, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Cessa, Luis Severino, Luke Voit, Masahiro Tanaka, Miguel Andujar, Stephen Tarpley, Tommy Kahnle, Troy Tulowitzki, Tyler Wade, Zack Britton

An updated look at the Yankees’ projected 2019 Opening Day roster as the injuries continue to mount

March 21, 2019 by Mike

(Presswire)

One week from today the Yankees will open the 2019 regular season at home against the Orioles. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound that day, not Luis Severino, because Severino suffered a shoulder injury earlier this month. That has been the story of Spring Training thus far. Injury after injury after injury.

The Yankees came into Spring Training with a 25-man roster that was fairly set. The last two bullpen spots and the final bench spot were up for grabs, and even then it was kinda easy to see who would get those spots. Now? Now injuries have created a few openings, openings the Yankees are still working to address. They have a week to figure it out.

So, with Yankees far from full strength going into the regular season, let’s take an updated look at the current state of the projected Opening Day roster. At this point, some Opening Day roster spots are being awarded almost by default.

Injured List (8)

Might as well start here. We know with certainty eight players — eight! — will be unavailable at the start of the regular season due to injury. Several of these injuries were known coming into Spring Training. Others popped up in recent weeks. These eight players combined for +18.4 WAR last year:

  • Dellin Betances (shoulder)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury (hip surgery)
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery)
  • Ben Heller (Tommy John Surgery)
  • Aaron Hicks (back)
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery)
  • CC Sabathia (knee, heart)
  • Luis Severino (shoulder)

The Yankees have not yet put these players on the injured list because they can’t. The 10-day IL doesn’t open until Monday. The 60-day IL has been open for a few weeks now, but the Yankees haven’t needed a 40-man roster spot yet, so there’s no reason to 60-day IL anyone. Montgomery and Gregorius figure to be the first two to go on the 60-day IL when 40-man space is needed.

It sounds like Hicks will be back a week into the regular season. Sabathia is expected back in mid-April and Severino in early-May. Everyone else is a little up in the air at this point, though Betances isn’t expected to be out too long. Ellsbury, Heller, Gregorius, and Montgomery are longer term injuries. We won’t see them for a while.

The Roster Locks (21)

After the injured dudes, the next logical place to go is the roster locks. I count 21 players who will assuredly be on the the Opening Day roster. There are no questions about these guys:

  • Position Players (11): Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade
  • Pitchers (10): Zack Britton, Luis Cessa, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, J.A. Happ, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Masahiro Tanaka, Adam Ottavino, James Paxton

I am comfortable calling Cessa, Kahnle, and Wade roster locks at this point. Cessa and Kahnle are both out of minor league options and they came into the spring as Opening Day roster favorites, and they’ve done nothing to pitch their way off the roster. Cessa in particular has been lights out. Add in the pitching injuries and yeah, Cessa and Kahnle will be on the roster.

On more than one occasion this spring Aaron Boone has indicated Wade’s versatility gives him a leg up on a bench spot. Add in the Yankees playing him in center field as soon as it became clear Hicks would not be ready for Opening Day, and we’ve got two pretty good signs Wade has made the roster, assuming yesterday’s hip tightness truly is nothing (fingers crossed). He’s the de facto fourth outfielder until Hicks returns, and, as an added bonus, he can play the infield as well. Wade’s a lock.

The Near Lock (1)

Assuming the Yankees again go with the eight-man bullpen/three-man bench roster construction, they have one more position player spot to fill. Realistically, there are three candidates for that roster spot: Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, and non-roster invitee Billy Burns. I’d rank their chances of making the Opening Day roster like so:

  1. Greg Bird
    (huge gap)
  2. Billy Burns
    (tiny gap)
  3. Clint Frazier

Frazier has not had a good spring (.140/.220/.233) and Boone has said he needs regular at-bats after missing so much time last season. The Yankees could give him those at-bats at the big league level given the Hicks injury, but it seems unlikely given his Grapefruit League showing. I have Burns ever so slightly ahead of Frazier because I think the Yankees are more willing to let Burns sit on the bench as the fourth outfielder than Frazier. Burns on the bench with Frazier getting regular at-bats in Triple-A seem much more likely than vice versa.

Anyway, that is all moot because Bird is a damn near lock for the Opening Day roster thanks to the Hicks injury, as long as yesterday’s pitch to the elbow is nothing (again, fingers crossed). The Yankees love Bird and there are DH at-bats open now with Stanton set to play left field. Bird can take those at-bats. Another lefty bat in the lineup would be welcome, for sure. With Wade set to be the fourth outfielder, the Yankees can put both Bird and Voit in the lineup, and they sound excited about that scenario. Bird’s on the roster, I believe.

“I look at as we have two impact players,” Boone said to Randy Miller earlier this week. “Bird has been a different guy this year. He’s been the guy we’ve been waiting on. He looks that part right now (with) his at-bats. But Luke has come in and picked up where he left off last year. Both guys are controlling the strike zone. Both guys are impacting the ball. Both guys have done everything we could have hoped for. So now moving forward, we haven’t necessarily revealed anything, but now there’s a scenario where both of them can certainly factor in on a regular basis for at least early in the season.”

The Gio vs. German Spot (1)

(Presswire)

I am working under the assumption Sabathia will serve his five-game suspension on Opening Day. That makes the most sense. The Yankees could get the suspension out of the way early, then use Sabathia’s injured list stint to recall a recently optioned player. I thought Domingo German would be that recently optioned player before the Betances injury. I’m not so sure now.

With Betances hurt and Cessa needed in the rotation right out of the gate, the Yankees are a little shorthanded in the bullpen, and carrying German on the Opening Day roster as a long man seems likely to me. If he’s needed in long relief at some point during Sabathia’s suspension, the Yankees will use him and call up someone else (Jonathan Loaisiga?) to be the interim fifth starter. If he’s not needed in long relief, he then becomes the fifth starter.

Loaisiga’s hasn’t had a good spring (11 runs in 12 innings) and pitching coach Larry Rothschild recently said it’s big league rotation or Triple-A for Johnny Lasagna. They’re going to develop him as a starter and not use him out of the bullpen even though I think a bullpen role shouldn’t be ruled out. Loaisiga has a long and scary injury history, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to get whatever you can out of him before he gets hurt again. Harsh, but that’s the business.

With Loaisiga pitching himself out of the rotation conversation, there are three potential candidates to wrestle that fifth starter/swingman spot from German: David Hale, Drew Hutchison, and the recently signed Gio Gonzalez. Nestor Cortes isn’t a serious Opening Day roster candidate and Chance Adams has already been sent to minor league camp. That doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t carry Adams on the Opening Day roster. It just seems unlikely.

Hale and Hutchison have been fine this spring. They haven’t been mentioned as Opening Day roster candidates at all and I think — and I think the Yankees think — German is flat out better than both of them. Hale and Hutchison are break glass in case of emergency guys. You call them up when you have no one else. Even with all the pitching injuries, the Yankees are thankfully not at that point yet. They’re out, so it’s German vs. Gio.

Gonzalez reported to camp two days ago and he’s thrown upwards of 80 pitches on his own, so his arm is stretched out. “I don’t think I am far away at all,” he said to Kristie Ackert. “I have been staying with my routine. In my last (simulated game), I pitched Monday, 88 pitches, five innings. I am trying to keep up with baseball, at least I am doing my routine and sticking to my guns. I’ll be ready to go. Hopefully I’ll be in a game pretty soon.”

Brian Cashman hedged a bit, saying the Yankees are looking forward to getting a look at Gonzalez up close the next few weeks. He has an April 20th opt-out date and it sounds like the Yankees want to take their time evaluating him. If push comes to shove and injuries force their hand, sure, they’ll carry Gio on Opening Day. It does not sound like that’s the plan. It sounds like Gonzalez is Plan B with German being Plan A.

Had he signed over the winter and reported to Spring Training with everyone else, this would definitely be Gonzalez’s roster spot. That’s not what happened though. He signed late and, even though he’s stretch out to 80 or so pitches, he’s probably not where he needs to be with his feel for his stuff or his command. That gives German the edge. I think he’s on the roster as a long reliever who moves into the fifth starter’s spot when the time comes.

The Final Pitching Spot (1)

Sabathia’s suspension means the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster. A three-man bench equals 12 pitcher spots during the suspension, and we have ten locks plus German, leaving one open spot. Once Sabathia’s suspension ends and the Yankees go back to 13 pitches, either German slots in as the fifth starter and a reliever gets called up, or German remains in the bullpen and a starter gets called up. Point is, there’s one open pitching spot.

Sticking with players who remain in big league camp, the Yankees have ten candidates for that final pitching spot. Sure, they could also bring back someone who’s already been sent out (Adams?), but it does seem unlikely. The ten candidates:

  • On the 40-man roster (2): Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley
  • Not on the 40-man roster (8): Rex Brothers, Nestor Cortes, Danny Coulombe, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Gio Gonzalez, David Hale, Drew Hutchison

We’ve already ruled out Gonzalez, Hale, and Hutchison as serious Opening Day roster candidates earlier in this post. Also, Loaisiga is a big league rotation or bust guy, so, for our purposes, it’s bust. He’s in Triple-A. Brothers has eight walks in 5.1 innings this spring after walking 44 in 40.2 minor league innings last year. I think we can cross him off the list. Espinal had a visa issue and reported to camp late, and has thrown one (1) Grapefruit League inning. He falls into that “he won’t be fully ready for Opening Day” group, similar to Gio.

That leaves four candidates: Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl, and Tarpley. Pretty easy to see where this is going, right? It’ll be Tarpley. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he impressed the Yankees enough last September to get a spot on the ALDS roster. Also, Tarpley’s had a very nice spring, chucking ten scoreless innings. That won’t hurt his cause. Diehl’s been impressive at times this spring but he’s barely pitched above Single-A. Cortes? Coulombe? I have no reason to believe they are ahead of Tarpley in the bullpen pecking order. Tarpley it is.

The Projected Roster (24+1)

That is 24 active players plus one suspended Sabathia. Again, once the five-game suspension ends, Sabathia goes directly on the injured list and the Yankees call up another pitcher to get back to a normal three-man bench/eight-man bullpen arrangement. Injures have really stretched the Yankees thin already. Sheesh. Anyway, after all that, here’s the projected Opening Day roster:

Catchers Infielders Outfielders Rotation Bullpen
Gary Sanchez 1B Greg Bird LF Giancarlo Stanton Masahiro Tanaka CL Aroldis Chapman
Austin Romine 1B Luke Voit CF Brett Gardner James Paxton SU Zack Britton
2B Gleyber Torres RF Aaron Judge J.A. Happ SU Chad Green
SS Troy Tulowitzki UTIL Tyler Wade Luis Cessa SU Adam Ottavino
3B Miguel Andujar MR Jonathan Holder
IF DJ LeMahieu MR Tommy Kahnle
MR Stephen Tarpley
SWG Domingo German

That is 24 active players plus one suspended player (Sabathia) plus seven other players on the injured list (Betances, Ellsbury, Gregorius, Heller, Hicks, Montgomery, Severino). Once Sabathia’s suspension ends, he becomes the eighth (!) player on the injured list, and the Yankees get their 25th roster spot back. Presumably it goes to a pitcher seeing how they’ve rarely employed a seven-man bullpen the last two years or so.

Bird’s elbow could throw a wrench into the roster situation. If he’s unable to go Opening Day, the Yankees would have little choice but to carry Burns or Frazier as the extra outfielder, with LeMahieu moving into the everyday lineup (Andujar to DH?) and Wade taking over as the full-time backup infielder. Hopefully Bird’s elbow (and Wade’s hips) is a-okay and he’ll be fine come Opening Day.

The injuries have eliminated several position battles. With a healthy Severino, it’s German vs. Tarpley for one spot. With Hicks healthy, it’s Bird vs. Wade for one spot. The injuries answered some questions and everything kinda falls into place. I don’t think we can completely rule out Gio beating out German, though it would surprise me. It really seems like the Yankees want to get an extended look at Gonzalez in minor league games first.

Hopefully everyone stays healthy these next seven days and the Yankees can go into the regular season with that roster. That is almost certainly the best 24+1 unit they could put together right now. Once Sabathia goes on the injured list, the Yankees get the 25th roster spot back. Once Hicks returns, they’ll have to drop another position player. Worry about that later though. Those are questions the Yankees will answer when the time comes and not a minute sooner.

Filed Under: Players Tagged With: Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Adam Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Austin Romine, Ben Heller, Billy Burns, Brett Gardner, CC Sabathia, Chad Green, Clint Frazier, Danny Coulombe, David Hale, Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Domingo German, Drew Hutchison, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Gonzalez, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird, J.A. Happ, Jacoby Ellsbury, James Paxton, Jonathan Holder, Jonathan Loaisiga, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Cessa, Luis Severino, Luke Voit, Masahiro Tanaka, Miguel Andujar, Nestor Cortes, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Rex Brothers, Stephen Tarpley, Tommy Kahnle, Troy Tulowitzki, Tyler Wade, Zack Britton

Where does each 2019 Yankee hit the ball the hardest?

March 14, 2019 by Mike

(Presswire)

In the year 2019, exit velocity is firmly ingrained in the baseball lexicon. It is inescapable. It’s all over Twitter and game broadcasts, and the Yankees literally show exit velocity on the Yankee Stadium scoreboard. Each time a Yankee puts the ball in play, there’s the exit velocity, right next to the pitch velocity on the center field scoreboard. Get used to it. Exit velocity isn’t going anywhere.

The Yankees have embraced exit velocity as an evaluation tool. It helped them unearth Luke Voit, and I remember former farm system head Gary Denbo mentioning Aaron Judge had premium exit velocity back when he was still a prospect in the minors. Hit the ball hard and good things happen. Here is the 2018 exit velocity leaderboard (min. 200 balls in play):

  1. Aaron Judge: 94.7 mph
  2. Joey Gallo: 93.9 mph
  3. Nelson Cruz: 93.9 mph
  4. Giancarlo Stanton: 93.7 mph
  5. Matt Chapman: 93.1 mph
    (MLB average: 87.7 mph)

Hitting the ball hard is a good skill to have. I mean, duh. Hit the ball hard and it’s more likely to go for a hit. Hit the ball hard in the air and it’s more likely to do serious damage, meaning extra-base hits. Last season the league hit .730 with a 1.098 ISO — that’s ISO, not SLG — on fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. For real.

Not surprisingly, the home run record-setting Yankees led MLB with a 93.6 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives last season. With that in mind, let’s look at where each projected member of the 2019 Yankees hit the ball the hardest last year. Specifically, let’s look at where in the strike zone they produce their best contact. Some guys are low ball hitters, others are high ball hitters, etc.

For the purposes of this post, we’re going to consider “best contact” to be fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. Why 100 mph and not, say, 95 mph or 97.6 mph or whatever? No real reason. Round numbers are cool so 100 mph it is. Here is each projected 2019 Yankee, listed alphabetically, and last year’s “best contact” profile.

(All spray chart are shown with Yankee Stadium’s dimensions even though not every batted ball was hit at Yankee Stadium, which is why there appear to be more homers than were actually hit.)

Miguel Andujar

Average FB+LD exit velocity: 92.7 mph
Number of 100+ mph FB+LD: 65 (13.5% of all balls in play)

I am legitimately surprised Andujar’s exit velocity numbers are not better. His average exit velocity on all batted balls was 89.2 mph, which ranked 72nd among the 186 hitters with at least 300 balls in play last year. His average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives ranked 128th (!), right behind Manny Margot and one-tenth of a mile-an-hour better than JaCoby Jones. Huh. Didn’t expect that.

Anyway, the strike zone plot above shows Andujar makes hard contact pretty much everywhere. That makes sense. He seems to get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it’s pitched. Most of his 100 mph or better fly balls and line drives are to the pull field, like most hitters, though Andujar can drive the ball the other way. I’m still a bit surprised his exit velocity are numbers are relatively low (but still better than average). Didn’t see that coming. Maybe that means he’s due for bad regression?

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Analysis Tagged With: Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Austin Romine, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kyle Higashioka, Luke Voit, Miguel Andujar, Troy Tulowitzki, Tyler Wade

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