Fan Confidence Poll: April 22nd, 2013

April 22, 2013 by Michael Axisa 66 Comments

Record Last Week: 4-2 (28 RS, 26 RA)
Season Record: 10-7 (88 RS, 73 RA, 10-7 pythag. record), 2.5 games back in AL East
Opponents This Week: @ Rays (three games, Mon. to Weds.), vs. Blue Jays (four game, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

The week started with an off-day before the Diamondbacks came to town for the first interleague series of the year. The Yankees won both the first game and the second game of the series in come-from-behind fashion, but they were unable to complete the sweep on Thursday.
The Yankees then headed up to Toronto for a three-game set with the new-look Blue Jays, and they blew their division rivals out in the series opener. They took the second game of the series in extra innings but couldn’t finish the sweep yesterday.
Injury News: Derek Jeter (ankle) has a new fracture and will be out until after the All-Star break. He does not need surgery. Both Curtis Granderson (forearm) and Mark Teixeira (wrist) have been cleared to swing a bat. Michael Pineda (shoulder) is scheduled for his first simulated game since surgery this week. Kevin Youkilis (back) is day-to-day with some stiffness. Cesar Cabral (elbow) and Clay Rapada (shoulder) continue to rehab in Tampa.
The Yankees will stick with their internal infield options following Jeter’s setback.
The NHL is planning to have two outdoor games at Yankee Stadium next January.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

The Real Me

With the NHL coming to YSIII for 2 games, I’m at an 11!!

The team has been on a nice roll. I’m hopefull they can keep it up. It’s still early and there are some things they need to figure out, but this is a better start than expected.

Long term, next year may be the toughest, although ’15 is still probably a transition year into the new budget realities as well. Ultimately, I think they’ll do fine working with a $189M budget, but there may be a couple of rough years getting there.
- OldYanksFan
  
  While there are some financial incentives for the $189m in 2015, 2014 is the REALLY important year, as 2014 resets the tax clock. Since few of our farms hands will be ready for 2014, Jeter and ARod will be further deteriorated, and Grandy, Mo and maybe Andy and Hiroki will be gone, 2014 is a lost year anyway. Even without the $189, 2014 is just gonna be a bad year.
  
  However, by 2015, the Yanks will have saved some coin, and hopefully will have some OFers from the farm. Jeter will be off the books. Any while we will have a bunch still tied up in ARod, CC, Teix and Cano ($21m, $23m, $22.5m and I’ll say $25m, for a total of $93.5m), we will have a lot of financial flexibility. If a few of the Kids can really plug some holes, there is enough money left over to get at least 2 quality FAs.
  
  So I have personally given up on 2014, and accept it as a rebuilding year. However, depending on how ‘the chips fall’, we might be able to compete in 2015. If that’s the case, I think the Yanks will shitcan the $189m for 2015.
Eddard

I’ve been at a 9 all season and there’s no reason to change now. They’re 3 games above .500 which is ahead of the pace we set for them before the season started. They can take 2/3 in Tampa behind CC and Andy. Nobody in the AL East has a better 1-2-3 than the Yankees and none of the other teams lineups really scare you either.

This team will only get stronger with injured players returning. If they can take 2/3 in Tampa they’ll be in great shape going home vs Toronto and then hapless Houston.
LarryM Fl

A comfortable 7 is my gut response to last week’s play. Very good pitching from CC, Hidecki, Andy and St. Phillip. This team does not live and die with the home run. It makes contact and is willing to take the walk. This presents a team which has the ability to stay in games. Will all these good vibrations continue. I sure hope so.

The injured players will get back when their ready to play. I don’t believe we’ll get and immediate bounce in a positive way. These players will have to get use to the pitching of the big leagues, once again.

I’m a little perplexed on strengthening the number 5 spot in the rotation and the need for another lefty. I believe we need to give Nova a few more starts but I believe using Phelps out of the bullpen is not his best usage. IMHO he needs to start. He is more of a pitcher than Nova who is a thrower with excellent physical attributes to progress eventually. But Nova lacks command of his pitches to be brought into game in the middle of an inning with men on base.
Jim Is Bored

Still around a 6.5, but rounding up to a 7 as long as we’re still healthy.

Would like to see Nunez remember how to hit.

And I’m excited to see if Pineda can get back in a month or two so that we don’t have to see any more Nova.
- LK
  
  Nunez used to know how to hit? Where was I?
  - Jim Is Bored
    
    wrc+ between 85-95 almost every time he’s seen extended playing time. This year is definitely an anomaly right now.
    - Slugger27
      
      i think the point was that hes never been a good hitter at the ML level.
      - Slugger27
        
        or minor league level i guess.
      - Jim Is Bored
        
        I never said he was a “good hitter”.
        
        Even in the minors, he was average from 2007-2010.
        
        He’s proven to be a slightly below average offensive player at every level.
        
        This year he’s been horrid. All I’m asking is a return to 85-90 wrc+.
        
        LK
        
        I’m with you, I was just being a dick.
        
        Jim Is Bored
        
        Gotcha. It’s Monday, my internet-tone monitors are still non-functional.
        
        OldYanksFan
        
        Really. A 90 RC+ isn’t terrible for a SS.
        Nunez is a decent player from the neck down. It’s the top floors that are in question. If he would smarten up a bit, he would not be a horrible position player.
        
        We should keep in mind that even with $220m to spend, the Yanks HAVE to fill a number of spots with Kids. While Nunez will not be great, he can be very useful. If we don’t have to buy a SS, that money can be put to good use elsewhere.
Brandon Mauk

Bring up Nuno to replace Hughes or Nova, and I’ll be happy
- pat
  
  And then Pineda later in the year to replace the other.
Robinsn Tilapia

Back to up to baseline 7 after being at a 6 for several weeks now. In the short term, while they’re still not out of the woods, we’re at the end of April and the fill-ins and vets are three games over .500. Everyone should be tickled pink with that.

Concerned about Jeter. Concerned about the more fringe members of the pitching staff under rather than overperforming. Maybe slightly concerned as the slow start a couple of prospects are off to, but should know better than to be concerned about that. Not thrilled with the ass end of the bullpen, but that’s almost always a work in progress. Too many glorified long men.

In the longer term, I guess we’re beginning to see a smidgen of what the 2014 plan will look like. For now, I’m glad I can actually see what this might look like, whether it’s something to be excited about or not, or whether the franchise is still walking a pretty fine line here. Taking what we’ve got for the moment, and that’s enough to raise my “immediate long-term” outlook slightly.

How does that read through the troll filter?
- Jim Is Bored
  
  Trolls won’t have gotten past “baseline 7″.
  
  I tend to agree for the most part; except my lack of thrill with the back end of the bullpen is par for the course every year so doesn’t really affect my short or long term outlook.
  
  If we stay healthy, which is a big, BIG if; maybe my offseason optimism that was shouted down so frequently will be rewarded.
  - 461deep
    
    I voted 7 the most popular view. Older subs and starters have performed nicely with CC, Kuroda, Cano and catchers in April rather than tanking as many thought possible. Perhaps the olders enjoy springtime freshness and hope it lasts into the dog days of summer. Grandy and Tex will be great to get back but there injuries may reduce their power output until ASB.
- Steve
  
  Trolls wonder why you put a number in your post when you’ve admitted that you vote 10 every week
  - Jim Is Bored
    
    What we vote and what we actually believe are two different things.
    
    I look at people’s explanations FAR more than I look at the actual poll results.
    - Robinson Tilapia
      
      Also, who gives a shit. This is all as unscientific and subjective as it gets.
      - Jim Is Bored
        
        Agreed, which is why i’m far more interested in the discussions and people’s reasoning, rather than the numbers.
  - Robinson Tilapia
    
    Actually, I voted a “7,” and I never said I did that every week, just for a couple.
- MannyGeee
  
  Troll Filter is stuck on “Polly Anna Red Alert” overload right now.
Preston

I’m surprised how easy it’s been to root for Youkilis. He works counts and plays heads up defense, I didn’t realize how much I liked having him in the lineup until he sat out yesterday. I also have done a complete 180 on Vernon Wells. The guy is playing well in every faze of the game. I don’t know what happened the last two years in Anaheim, but he looks definitely looks like he’s the Blue Jays version of himself. He’s walking more, striking out less, and his numbers aren’t even inflated by an unsustainable BABIP. I have high hopes that he can be better than league average as a corner OFer not just this year but next. Francisco Cervelli looks like he deserves to be a starting C, it’s hard not to root for the guy, hope his defense holds up. If Grandy and Tex can come back this team starts to look really, really good.
I love the top of our rotation. CC, Andy and Hiroki are a joy to watch. They work fast, throw strikes and go deep into games. Just a lot of fun. I think Phil is over his back issue and can be solid going forward. I’m worried about Nova and Phelps doesn’t appear to be a better option. The underbelly of our bullpen is looking pretty ugly right now too. But these are the easiest problems to fix. I’m rooting like crazy for CMW and Pineda to come back and contribute as starters and I think our bullpen is going to be awesome once Montgomery is ready to come up (who needs a Loogy if we have 4 RHP who can get both handed hitters out).
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  Surprised on Wells. Not surprised on Youkilis. There were always individuals on those Red Sox teams I respected while I rooted for the overall team’s demise. Youk was high up there for me.
  
  Rooting for Pineda. If you’re not rooting for the Wanger to have at least one big Yankee moment this season, you have no soul.
  - Preston
    
    I’m rooting for a 27 pitch 100% groundball perfect game with 27 perfect strikes to first from Nunez. Dream big or go home.
    - Preston
      
      I’m obviously talking about Wang.
      - Robinson Tilapia
        
        I’ll settle for one seven-inning lockdown start in which he gets a Standing O and curtain call as he walks off the field.
        
        Jim Is Bored
        
        In the sweep clinching game of the WS, where he’s followed by 2 shutdown innings from Mo.
        
        Robinson Tilapia
        
        I’ll still settle for “random July Sunday” on the Wanger.
greg

It’s NUNO time!
Manny’s BanWagon

6. The fill ins are holding down the fort though the real credit should go to CC, Kuroda and Pettitte. Wells and Hafner have also been better than expected.

2014 is a whole different animal though with the young pitching on both the big club and the higher levels of the minors doing nothing to suggest they could adequately replace Pettitte and Kuroda next year. To think they could replace Kuroda, Pettitte, Mariano, Youkalis and Granderson next year for $189 million and maintain a contending team is a fairy tale IMO.
- Jim Is Bored
  
  And everyone was claiming that believing this year’s team could make the playoff’s was a “fairy tale”.
  
  Y’all go ahead and keep on doubting.
  - Robinson Tilapia
    
    I’m fine with MBW having his doubts. I think him and I both agree there’s a mighty fine line the team is walking in places. Someone reasonable here has to hold the “glass half-empty” line.
    
    I agree, though. So far, they’ve patched it up with overall good results. This could be done again next year.
    
    Of course, there’s still a whole lot of season to play this year.
    - Jim Is Bored
      
      Of course. This place would be really boring if everyone agreed on everything.
  - Manny’s BanWagon
    
    And everyone was claiming that believing this year’s team could make the playoff’s was a “fairy tale”.
    
    I hope you’re right but I wouldn’t declare victory this season just yet over those who think the Yankees won’t make the playoffs after 17 games.
    - Jim Is Bored
      
      I’m not declaring victory in the long run.
      
      But the way the season has started, declaring the playoff chances(especially in the AL East) a fairy tale would be overstating things.
      
      I guess it all hinges on what “fairy tale” implies. 0-5%? 5-10%?
    - Havok9120
      
      I don’t disagree with that, but you have to admit that all the moving of the goalposts gets a little wearing after awhile. First it was “we’re totally screwed, Hal should sell the team,” then “we’ll never make the playoffs,” then “we’re going to suck so bad with all the injured players that we’ll be out of it by their return,” then “setbacks will keep everyone out anyway and the old guys will be ineffective and look at all the red flags early on in the rotation, no way they keep this up,” then….etc.
      
      Now it’s “yeah, they may actually put together a good season but NEXT season they’re totally screwed.” It just gets hard to deal with that much negativity after awhile, especially since it’s starting to seem like people are TRYING to find things to complain about to justify their original 37 predictions of perpetual doom and failure.
      - Jim Is Bored
        
        This pretty accurately sums up my feelings.
        
        Although to be fair, MBW has been one of the more rational negative folk.
      - Manny’s BanWagon
        
        I still put their playoff chances at maybe 55/45 in their favor at this point and right from the beginning, had them no worse than an 86-88 wins team even with all the injuries.
        
        They’re playing pretty well right now and even though I’m moderately concerned about this year and have major concerns about what they’re gonna put on the field in 2014, I’m just trying to enjoy the season and Mo’s last lap around.
- OldYanksFan
  
  Yup….. CC, Kuroda and Pettitte currently lead the AL in HRs, lead the AL in OPS, are 2nd in RS (1 Run behind Oakland), and 2nd in the AL in BA. The rest of the team are a bunch of bums.
FEED.ME.MORE!

I’m at a 9, and have stayed there even after the offseason/injuries.

The fill-ins have been doing fine. They won’t keep it up to this level, but I’ve learned to never doubt Cashman when he goes with veteran pickups. Nunez needs to get his rhythm back. Getting HBP maybe has alot to do with his struggles.

Nova is my only real concern right now. It seems as if his adjusted emphasis on striking guys out and throwing the 4 seamer as opposed to the sinker has hurt his effectiveness. Earlier, he was a pitch to contact guy who went deeper into games. Now he is a high heat, deep count, 95 pitches through 5 innings type. I’m not giving up on him, but I do wonder if the strikeout mentality has changed his future with this organization.
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  What was your confidence level after losing to Mark Henry, though.
  
  I also, in all seriousness, wonder whether someone’s number goes up or down according to what span of time they take into consideration. I’d say my shorter term outlook is slightly higher than my longer term outlook, but that both are getting closer to another at the moment.
  - OldYanksFan
    
    Let’s be honest. The longer term outlook for THIS season is more dependent on Teix and Grandy, and to a much lesser extent, Jeter and ARod, than on our current crew. NOBODY expects this current group to make the playoffs. The ‘dream’ was for them to keep us close, and hope ‘The Injured’ would then make us competative.
    
    Even with SSS, I think we can say for sure that Youk is NOT in steep decline, Vernon Wells in NOT totally cooked, and Hafner, when healthy, can still swing a bat. I think we can also say that Cervelli does NOT totally suck, and that Andy is STILL a Golden God.
    
    So things are better for us than anyone expected. I think as is, we are better than a .500 team. However, we still need Teix and Grandy to way outperform Ichiro and Overbay in order to sniff the PS.
    - Robinson Tilapia
      
      Sure.
      
      I’m more referring to whether someone’s number increases or decreases if they take 2014 into account. What about 2015? It’s just interesting.
      
      I was justifying my “6” vote because I felt I was at about a “7” long-term, but around a “4” or “5” short-term prior to the start of the season. Now that we’re in mid-April, and the team is 10-7, those numbers have come a lot closer to one another. I’d even say my short-term may have surpasses my long-term.
      - FEED.ME.MORE!
        
        To answer your question, I stay at a 9 because I’ve been expecting and preparing for the end of the Jeter/Mo/Andy/Alex era for years now. It hasn’t snuck up on me.
        
        I’ve been expecting 2014 and 2015 to be below the norm, as the vets retire/move on and we have to replace them. But I temper the lowered expectations with the belief/knowledge that an in their prime Cano and CC will be the bridge to the next generation.
        
        I’m one of those Yankee fans (and people) who doesn’t fear the unknown. Where people see uncertainty, I see opportunity. Is it risky and might it go horribly wrong? Of course. But I’d prefer to go forward knowing that Cashman and Hal aren’t fools. They’ve done a good job of supplementing aging vets with kids for years, but they never get any credit for it.
Brett is Bubbas Son

Would guys be willing at some point to post a graph of the mean and median of the poll results you have amassed overtime.

I would love to see the correlation btwn actual winning and our belief in the team.
- mitch
  
  Do you really need a chart to tell you that Yankees fans overreact to everything?
  - Brett is Bubbas Son
    
    Need and want are two different things, and for me it is more of a question of how much they overreact.
    - Manny’s BanWagon
      
      Name the fans of any pro sports team that doesn’t overreact.
      - Brett is Bubbas Son
        
        Completely agree, that is why I want to see the degree to which they do. I want to see if there is a correlary ratio btwn winning/losing and relayed confidence. Do we overreact in the same way when we are winning and losing? How long after a rough patch does it take for our confidence to return? Does this have any effect on ticket sales or merchandising? so many questions that this could actually shed some light on.
      - Robinson Tilapia
        
        What do Houston Astros fans do, exactly? I’m curious.
        
        Manny’s BanWagon
        
        Hope the Rockets win a round in the playoffs and bide their time till Texans training camp.
      - toad
        
        Bob and Claudia.
- Jim Is Bored
  
  There’s the interactive graph mentioned right above it.
  
  http://riveraveblues.com/fan-confidence-poll/
  - Brett is Bubbas Son
    
    Thank you sir, I have a bad tendency to miss links…
    - Jimmy
      
      The chart unfortunately doesn’t really have a lot of value other than a very general guage of fan sentiment since there are so many people voting 0 and 10. If you (most likely correctly) assume those data points are just people trying to skew the poll one way over the other then a weighted average really doesn’t work.
      - Brett is Bubbas Son
        
        But wouldn’t you also assume that those would be fairly consistent in and of themselves. I am looking for a trend line and what causes spikes. Holding that there will always be outlying it is still a useful tool.
      - Robinson Tilapia
        
        The larger the sample you utilize, though, the less the effect of what you’re saying will be, and I agree that it absolutely does happen.
        
        There could be a separate look at relationship between record and statistical variance fromo the mean. Are certain weeks more likely to result in larger number of 0 or 10 votes, etc.
        
        There’s a ton you could do, if you felt like it and were a stat geek.
        
        Of course, this probably won’t happen. I’m still waiting for Athenian’s study.
  - OldYanksFan
    
    Wow…. we are a fickle group.
MannyGeee

Baseline 7 FTW.

Cashman picked the right guys off the “rather expensive scrap” heap this season and them dudes have been paying dividends. Also, Francisco Mutherfuskin Cervelli.

Top and middle of the rotation are doing their thing, but the back of the rotation and middle relief are scaring me more than usual…

The Jeter setback sucks, but the Pineda progress has me cautiously optimistic.
- Manny’s BanWagon
  
  Pineda has me curious. I picked him up off the waiver wire in my fantasy league and have him on my DL.
  - MannyGeee
    
    I think you were about a month early on the flyer there, but yeah… I would cosign on his ability to help. I may do the same whenever Garza decides to stop being a sally and come off the DL.
trr

6.
no change
Brian in MA

still a 6. Jeter not coming back until after the ASB, plus the complete ineptitude against lefties kind of leaves me feeling not too confident. They have showed a spark lately though. But then Youkilis gets the inevitable “injury” and we’re back to where we were before. The team is held together with string and duct tape until at least Tex, Jeter and Granderson come back, and even then, who knows how long until they are up to speed.

On the bright side, Mo is pretty much still Mo. I would hate to see his last season end poorly though.

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