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6/22 to 6/24 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

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(Bob Levey/Getty)

For the first time this season, the Yankees will play in Tropicana Field. They’re in Tampa for three games this weekend.

The Last Time They Met

It seems like just yesterday that the Yankees hosted the Rays, but that’s not quite true; in fact, it was last week. The Rays visited the Bronx last weekend, and the good guys took three out of four by a combined score of 14 to 7. A few notes from the series:

  • Jonathan Loaisiga made his big league debut in the second game of the series, and was incredibly impressive in doing so. He tossed 5 scoreless innings and allowed seven total base-runners, while striking out 6.
  • Kevin Cash, the Rays manager, compared Loaisiga to Mariano Rivera after the game – and that’s equal parts wonderful and insane.
  • Luis Severino, not to be outdone, was even better the following day, pitching to the following line – 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K. That represents the second-best start of his career by Game Score.
  • Didi Gregorius had a big series, going 6-for-11 with a triple and a home run, and that may well have been the jump-start to awakening from his slumber.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Chris Archer is still on the disabled list with a strained abdominal muscle, and is slated for a bullpen session today – which means he’s still a couple of weeks away, and that’s without any setbacks. Starting pitcher Jake Faria is out until August with an oblique injury, and pitching prospects Jose De Leon, Anthony Banda, and Brent Honeywell are all out for the season due to Tommy John Surgery, as well.

On the position player side of things, Christian Arroyo and Daniel Robertson are both on the disabled list. Neither is expected to be out long, but their return dates remain TBD.

Their Story So Far

The Rays are 34-40 with a -17 run differential, and have spent much of the season jockeying for third place in the division with the Blue Jays. They’re quite a bit better at home, though, with a 15-16 record and a +15 run differential, so they’ve got that going for them.

They are still using an “opener” in lieu of a traditional starter in a sizable portion of their games, with Blake Snell and Nate Eovaldi serving as the only true starting pitchers on the roster right now. The opener tends to hand the ball over to a long reliever after the first or second inning, which results in some intriguing box scores. It has been a mixed bag, but it is difficult to fault the Rays for trying something new when they have five MLB or MLB-ready starting pitchers on the disabled list.

The Lineup We Might See

Despite the injuries to Arroyo and Robertson, the Rays offense is just about at full-strength, as Kevin Kiermaier has returned from the DL and prospects Jake Bauers and Willy Adames garnered promotions. We’ll probably see something along these lines:

  1. Kevin Kiermaier, CF – .135/.211/.192, 0 HR, 1 SB, 15 OPS+
  2. Matt Duffy, 3B – .317/.360/.439, 4 HR, 4 SB, 125 OPS+
  3. Jake Bauers, 1B – .250/.379/.458, 1 HR, 0 SB, 136 OPS+
  4. Wilson Ramos, C – .288/.337/.447, 9 HR, 0 SB, 119 OPS+
  5. C.J. Cron, DH – .237/.316/.452, 16 HR, 1 SB, 114 OPS+
  6. Joey Wendle, 2B – .272/.316/.364, 2 HR, 6 SB, 92 OPS+
  7. Willy Adames, SS – .182/.229/.273, 1 HR, 0 SB, 41 OPS+
  8. Mallex Smith, LF – .276/.341/.360, 0 HR, 13 SB, 99 OPS+
  9. Johnny Field, RF – .224/.260/.401, 6 HR, 4 SB, 83 OPS+

Carlos Gomez (.191/.264/332) and Adeiny Hechavarria (.285/.312/.354) will find their way into the lineup, as well.

(Stephen Brashear/Getty)

The Starting (Opening) Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:10 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Ryne Stanek

Stanek has opened six games this season, pitching to the following line: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 9 K. That’s … surprisingly good. Of course, he has only completed the second inning once (and has maxed-out at 40 total pitches), so the Rays will lean heavily on the bullpen once he leaves the game. He opened against the Yankees last Saturday, and he threw a scoreless 1.1 innings. The Yankees won that game 4-1.

Stanek is a flamethrower, featuring a high-90s four-seamer, a high-80s splitter, and a high-80s slider. Those two breaking balls are legitimate swing and miss offerings, too.

Last outing (vs. HOU on 6/19) – 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Saturday (4:10 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Wilmer Font

The Rays are Font’s third organization this season, and it’s not too difficult to understand why when you see his 7.56 ERA with the Dodgers and A’s. However, he has been quite good for the Rays, pitching to a 2.20 ERA (184 ERA+) in 16.1 IP; he’s also being stretched-out to be an actual starter, with his pitch counts climbing by 15-plus pitches in each of his last three outings. He’s only pitched into the fifth inning once, but it stands to reason that he can go deeper into the game if needed.

Font throws five pitches – a mid-90s four-seamer, a mid-90s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, a mid-80s slider, and a mid-70s curve. It’s a starter’s arsenal and he only recently turned 28, so the Rays might’ve found something here.

Last outing (vs. NYY on 6/17) – 4.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K

Sunday (1:10 PM EST): RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Blake Snell

The Yankees roughed Snell up last week, scoring four runs in five innings and putting nine runners on-base. Snell – who was taken one pick after Dante Bichette Jr. back in 2011 – has otherwise been one of the best starters in baseball this year. And he has a 0.96 ERA at Tropicana Field.

Last outing (vs. HOU on 6/19) – 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 7 BB, 6 K

The Bullpen

The Rays currently employ a closer-by-committee, with Sergio Romo (5.46 ERA), Jose Alvarado (3.00 ERA), and Chaz Roe (2.79 ERA) seeing most of the ninth inning action. They also have a trio of long relievers in Austin Pruitt, Matt Andriese, and Ryan Yarbrough – at least one of which will come in to relieve Stanek today – and one of the best stories in baseball in Jonny Venters.

Who (Or What) To Watch

I’m excited to see how Domingo German follows up on his terrific outing against the Mariners, as well as the prospect of a pitchers duel between him and Snell. And the Rays in general fascinate me, with their aggressive bullpen-ing and high-risk approach on the bases.

6/19 to 6/21 Series Preview: Seattle Mariners

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Dee Gordon and Jean Segura. (Lindsey Wasson/Getty)

Worry not, dear reader, for the dreaded trip to Seattle (and Oakland) isn’t until September. That doesn’t necessarily make this match-up any better, though.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Mariners for a three-game Players Weekend set last August, picking up two wins and outscoring the visiting club by 11 runs. Some other notes from the series:

  • The first game of the series was one of the most frustrating in recent memory. The Yankees left thirteen runners on-base in total, and left the bases loaded three times. Aroldis Chapman, who lost his job as closer a week earlier, surrendered a go-ahead (and game-winning) pinch-hit home run in the 11th. Ugh.
  • Greg Bird returned to the lineup after missing nearly four months of action in the second game, and he looked pretty good. He went 1-for-2 with two walks and a run scored, and played all nine innings at first.
  • That second game also included somebody named ‘Jacoby Ellsbury’ going 2-for-4 with a home run and four RBI. That guy went 4-for-10 in the series as a whole, with a double, that home run, a walk, and 6 RBI.
  • Seattle made five errors in one inning in the third game, which made things pretty easy for the Yankees offense. Masahiro Tanaka twirled a gem, as well, tossing 7 innings of 1 run ball, and striking out 10.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

The Mariners have half of a bullpen on the DL, with Dan Altavilla, David Phelps, Erasmo Ramirez, and Nick Vincent out with a variety of ailments. Phelps had Tommy John Surgery in March, so he won’t be back any time soon, and Altavilla has a nebulously named “mass sprain” in his elbow, so his return is up in the air, as well. The other two could be back this month, but probably not in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

Seattle is 46-26 with a +22 run differential, good for second-place in both the AL West and the AL Wild Card race. They’ve overachieved quite a bit relative to their Pythagorean expectations, which place them as a 38-34 team. That’s not shocking, considering that they have the 4th best winning percentage in baseball, and the 12th best run differential.

The Mariners are basically a middle of the pack team, sitting 12th in runs allowed, 13th in runs scored, and 22nd in defensive runs saved. Their biggest strength as of now is the bullpen, which is among the five-best in the game by pretty much every measure. That isn’t to say that their offense or starting pitching is bad; rather, that it’s good enough to be put over the top by a light’s out bullpen. And that’s been the key to their success so far.

All that being said, their biggest story so far may well be Robinson Cano’s 80-game suspension for violating the league’s joint drug agreement. He’s not eligible to return until August 14 and, when he does, he might not get his full-time job back.

The Lineup We Might See

Third-year manager Scott Servais has had a fairly steady hand with his lineup card, as the only real shake-up was the result of Cano’s suspension. We’ll probably see something like this:

  1. Dee Gordon, 2B – .290/.311/.361, 1 HR, 19 SB
  2. Jean Segura, SS – .340/.363/.490, 6 HR, 14 SB
  3. Mitch Haniger, RF – .269/.357/.512, 16 HR, 3 SB
  4. Nelson Cruz, DH – .249/.339/.521, 17 HR, 1 SB
  5. Kyle Seager, 3B – .224/.272/.413, 12 HR, 1 SB
  6. Ryon Healy, 1B – .257/.288/.485, 13 HR, 0 SB
  7. Ben Gamel, LF – .297/.371/.406, 1 HR, 5 SB
  8. Mike Zunino, C – .207/.266/.445, 11 HR, 0 SB
  9. Guillermo Heredia, CF – .241/.343/.348, 2 HR, 1 SB

Denard Span (.259/.368/.415, 6 HR, 6 SB) could see some time in left, as well.

James Paxton. (Bob Levey/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Marco Gonzales

Despite being a top-50 prospect a few years ago, Gonzales never received much of an opportunity with his original organization, the Cardinals. He was shipped to Seattle for prospect Tyler O’Neill last July, and the Mariners stuck him in the rotation. Things were a bit rocky last season, but Gonzales has been very good in 2018, pitching to a 3.42 ERA (117 ERA+) and 3.20 FIP in 79.0 IP. His 21.1% strikeout rate is right around league-average, and his 46.8% groundball rate and 5.8% walk rate are comfortably better than average.

Gonzales is a true five-pitch guy, working with a low-90s four-seamer, low-90s sinker, high-80s cutter, mid-80s change, and high-70s curve. Much of his success this year has been attributed to that cutter, which he only starting throwing this past off-season.

Last outing (vs. LAA on 6/13) – 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 7 K

Wednesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Jonathan Loaisiga vs. RHP Felix Hernandez

The once-dominant King Felix is a shell of his former self at 32, sporting a 98 ERA+ since Opening Day 2015. This has been his worst season to-date, though, as he has a 5.44 ERA (73 ERA+) and 4.67 FIP in 84.1 IP, having allowed four or more runs in 7 of his 15 starts. He does have a 4.00 ERA in June, though, with two strong outings sandwiched around a 3-inning, 6-run effort on June 9, so the flashes are still there … to some degree.

Hernandez’s once elite velocity is gone nowadays, as his four-seamer averages 90.3 MPH this year, a full MPH lower than 2017. He still throws the same arsenal, albeit with a reduced velocity – that four-seamer, a high-80s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, a low-80s slider, and a high-70s curve.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 6/14) – 7.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K

Thursday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP James Paxton

Paxton struck out 16 A’s on May 2 and followed that up by no-hitting the Blue Jays his next time out, in the midst of an utterly dominant stretch that saw him pitch to a 1.75 ERA in 56.2 IP. He’s been mortal around those eight games, though, and that’s largely been the story of his career. And he’s never faced the Yankees.

Paxton is primarily a three-pitch guy, focusing on his mid-90s four-seamer, high-80s cutter, and big-breaking, low-80s curve. He’ll also throw a mid-90s sinker and a mid-80s change-up, but those are oftentimes little more than show-me pitches.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 6/15) – 2.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 1 BB 4 K

The Bullpen

Edwin Diaz is the closer, and his numbers are kind of absurd. He has more than three times as many strikeouts (62) as hits allowed (20), and he’s striking out 42.5% of all batters. He already has 27 saves, which is five more than the second-place Craig Kimbrel, and his 2.56 WPA is ninth among all pitchers.

James Pazos (1.48 ERA in 24.1 IP) and Chasen Bradford (3.21 ERA in 28.0 IP) have done the heavy lifting behind Diaz, and they’ve been very good so far. The rest of the bullpen has been something of a revolving door due to the aforementioned injuries, but the newly acquired Alex Colome (3.68 ERA in 7.1 IP for the Mariners) has high-leverage experience.

Yankees Connection

A few have been mentioned so far – Cano, Ben Gamel (parts of seven years), and James Pazos (six years) were all brought-up through the Yankees organization. You’ll also remember Nick Rumbelow, who rode the shuttle for the Yankees in 2015 and was dealt to Seattle last November; you may not remember Wade LeBlanc, who pitched one awful inning for the good guys back in 2014 and was a non-roster invite to Spring Training this year. He has a 2.63 ERA (152 ERA+) in fourteen games this year, because of course he does.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Paxton’s curve is a sight to behold, and Diaz is just filthy all-around; hopefully the Yankees won’t have to see him at all this week. And Gordon and Segura have a vibe that’s not all that different from Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius, if you’re into that sort of thing.

6/14 to 6/17 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

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Wilson Ramos and Mallex Smith (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

After splitting with the Nationals, the Yankees welcome the Rays for four games after not playing Tampa for over two months.

The Last Time They Met

Somehow, the Yankees and Rays have only played two games this season. The Yankees swept a two-game set to start their 2018 home slate on April 3-4.

  • Opening Day was snowed out in a throwback to 1996, perhaps a good omen for things to come. Once things got underway, Didi Gregorius had a day to remember with eight RBI and two three-run homers in an 11-4 win.
  • Giancarlo Stanton had a forgettable game in his first home appearance at Yankee Stadium, striking out five times. He quickly made up for it with a home run off Blake Snell the next day.
  • Stanton, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge each had two-run shots as the Yankees completed the sweep with a 7-2 win behind Luis Severino.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

Five potential Rays starters are on the shelf, including Jose De Leon, Anthony Banda and top prospect Brent Honeywell undergoing Tommy John surgery. Chris Archer (abdominal strain) could miss another month and Jake Faria is on the 60-day DL.

Adeiny Hechavarria and Kevin Kiermaier should each be back later this month (but not this series) from a hamstring and thumb injury, respectively.

Their Story So Far

The Rays come into the Bronx at 32-35, good for third place in the top-heavy American League East. They’ve gone 4-6 in their last 10 games and are 17-19 away from Tropicana Field. Despite casting off most of their big names, they’ve been solid offensively, hitting .255/.324/.394 (101 wRC+) entering Thursday.

While their pitching numbers don’t look too special on the surface, they’ve received 39 2/3 fewer innings out of their starters than any other team with 301 innings in 67 games. That’s because of their “openers,” relievers who start the game and face the top portion of the lineup before handing the ball over to the normal starter.

Lineup We Might See

The Rays have added a couple prospects (Jake Bauers and Willy Adames) to their lineup since the Bombers last saw them while shedding Denard Span via trade.

1. 3B Matt Duffy (.324/.351/.409, 112 wRC+)
2. 1B Jake Bauers (.308/.379/.538, 155 wRC+)
3. C Wilson Ramos (.282/.324/.442, 113 wRC+)
4. DH C.J. Cron (.251/.331/.470, 123 wRC+)
5. 2B Joey Wendle (.277/.322/.375, 93 wRC+)
6. SS Willy Adames (.227/.250/.409, 75 wRC+)
7. CF Mallex Smith (.294/.356/.387, 109 wRC+)
8. RF Carlos Gomez (.180/.255/.325, 62 wRC+)
9. LF Rob Refsnyder (.177/.323/.291, 81 wRC+)

Evo is back! (Mitchell Layton/Getty)

The “Starting Pitchers” We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Blake Snell
Blake Snell is quickly turning into the pitcher that many thought he could be a couple years ago. He comes into this series with a 2.30 ERA over 82 1/3 innings and 14 starts. He has struck 89 batters and walked just 25, drastically cutting his walk rate (and his hit rate to boot).

He struggled against the Bombers in April to the tune of five runs in 3 1/3 innings, but he has allowed more than two earned runs in only two of his 14 starts. With Archer out, he’s the Rays’ ace and workhorse, yet he still typically only goes six innings or so. He’s won his last four decisions.

Last Outing (vs. SEA on June 9) – 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HR

Friday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Jonathan Loaisiga vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
It’s so good to see Nathan Eovaldi back among the healthy. A torn flexor tendon and UCL ended his Yankees tenure and sent him to Tommy John surgery, keeping him out until this year. It looked like he’d be in the Rays’ No. 2 starter in their opening series, but then another elbow injury delayed his return.

And then he no-hit the Athletics for six innings in his first game back. He’s had less success in his last two starts, but he’s built up to over 100 pitches. He’s the same Eovaldi you remember: Still hits 100 mph on the gun, still can’t miss bats with enough consistency. He’s had solid control thus far, issuing just two walks in 16 innings.

Last Outing (vs. SEA on June 10) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HR

Saturday (1:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. TBA

Sunday (2:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. TBA

OK, so it’s TBA, but it’s likely going to be a pair of relievers. Maybe Ryan Yarbrough will get a start, but he could also come in after whichever reliever manager Kevin Cash chooses to use. The way Cash typically uses the “opener” is keep the reliever-starter in for the first 5-6 batters, usually getting them into the second inning or so. Then comes the pitcher who normally starts (Yarbrough, Austin Pruitt, etc) for a couple times through the lineup.

The first time the Rays used the opener made perfect sense; They were facing a RHB-heavy Angels team and used Sergio Romo to counteract them. It was a really smart move. But it’s been overkill to use it 2-3 times every week. They’re doing it against platoon-balanced lineups and it’s really backfired a few times. Ultimately, this wouldn’t be happening if the Rays had rotation depth.

The Bullpen

No more Alex Colome after he was traded with Span to Seattle. It’s mostly been closer by committee with Sergio Romo and Chaz Roe as two of the late-inning options. Lefty Jose Alvarado gets high leverage opportunities as well while fellow southpaw Jonny Venters limits LHBs well. RHP Diego Castillo is four games into his career and has struck out eight in 5 2/3 innings.

Beyond those four, it’s a mix of long relievers and openers. Matt Andriese and Wilmer Font combined for seven innings on Wednesday (Castillo pitched the other two), so they’re unlikely to pitch early in the series. Austin Pruitt pitched 2 2/3 innings on Tuesday while Ryne Stanek opened with two shutout innings. Yarbrough and former Yankee Vidal Nuno round out the rest of the motley crew.

Yankees Connection

Cash had 10 games in pinstripes during the 2009 title run while Eovaldi and Refsnyder are recent Yankees. Roe and his wonderful slider spent three games with the Bombers in 2014 and Nuno was a Yankee for 22 games in 2013-14. On the 40-man, recently acquired Ji-Man Choi was a stopgap at first base for the Yankees last season.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • Old Timer’s Day on Sunday! I’m excited to see Andy Pettitte don pinstripes again and hopefully we’ll see him try to pick someone off. Aaron Boone is also getting in on the action among the other newcomers.
  • Jonathan Loaisiga’s debut against Eovaldi’s return to the Bronx. The Yankees dip into their prospect wealth against one of their former young starters. A fun matchup for the Pinstripers.
  • Similar to Loaisiga’s debut, let’s see how Jake Bauers and Willy Adames do in their first matchups against the Yankees. Each is among the Rays’ top prospects and Bauers has gotten off to an impressive start over the last week.

6/12 to 6/13 Series Preview: Washington Nationals

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The young phenom … and Bryce Harper (Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

Back in the Bronx! The Bombers begin a nine-game homestand that features a 1.5-game stint in Washington D.C. in the middle. Before they can get to the District, the Yankees will host the Nationals for two games on River Avenue.

The Last Time They Met

The Yanks and Nats played half a game last month, but the last time they completed a series was back on June 9-10, 2015 at Yankee Stadium. Nearly three years ago to the date.

  • Masahiro Tanaka outdueled Max Scherzer in the opening game as the Yankees won, 6-1. Stephen Drew hit a pair of solo home runs and the Bombers extended the lead off the Washington bullpen.
  • Game 2 pitching matchup was Gio Gonzalez and Nathan Eovaldi. Pretty funny that the two starters for the Nationals in the series were the two probable starters for the two-game set the Nationals had last month.
  • The Yankees gained a two-run advantage late, but a shorthanded bullpen forced Jacob Lindgren into a high leverage eighth inning and he gave up a tying homer to Michael A. Taylor. The Nats would win in extras of Chris Capuano.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

A lot of big names on the disabled list. 2B Daniel Murphy could make his season debut this series while RHPs Stephen Strasburg, Jeremy Hellickson and Brandon Kintzler were recently placed on the 10-day DL. Ryan Zimmerman could be back soon from back soreness but likely needs a rehab stint first.

Relievers Joaquin Benoit and Koda Glover, as well as catchers Matt Wieters and Jhonatan Solano, will miss this series and Yankee killer Howie Kendrick is done for the season with a ruptured right Achilles.

Their Story So Far

The Nationals are tied for the National League East division lead at 36-27 despite getting off to a slow start to the season. They’ve been especially strong away from Nationals Park, going 21-11 on the road. However, they’ve cooled off a bit recently after losing five of their last nine.

Contrary to the last few seasons, this isn’t a top-notch offensive team, batting .236/.315/.400 (92 wRC+) as a team. Their starting rotation has remained stout and they have an improved bullpen headlined by Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. In their lineup, Zimmerman and Murphy have missed significant time while Bryce Harper is in a bit of a slump.

Lineup We Might See

A lot of lefties on Dave Martinez’s squad, so there will a different mix that faces CC Sabathia compared with the one that faces Sonny Gray. Here’s a lineup with all their best healthy hitters even though Taylor or Wilmer Difo may get a start.

1. RF Adam Eaton (.333/.421/.606, 179 wRC+)
2. SS Trea Turner (.254/.339/.387, 99 wRC+)
3. CF/RF Bryce Harper (.228/.360/.509, 127 wRC+)
4. 3B Anthony Rendon (.262/.342/.452, 112 wRC+)
5. 1B Matt Adams (.265/.345/.578, wRC+)
6. 2B Daniel Murphy (.322/.384/.543, 136 wRC+ in 2017)
7. DH Mark Reynolds (.290/.343/.597, 152 wRC+)
8. LF Juan Soto (.328/.431/.541, 163 wRC+)
9. C Pedro Severino (.197/.303/.254, 50 wRC+)

Fun Fact: A.J. Cole, with a home run in three ABs, leads the Nationals with a 344 wRC+.

He’s not Scherzer, but Roark isn’t an easy customer. (Daniel Shirey/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Tanner Roark
Tanner Roark is really good in even-numbered seasons and slightly below average in odd years. This season has been a slight departure as he’s been good (3.56 ERA/113 ERA+ in 78 1/3 innings) but not outstanding as he was in 2016 (2.83 ERA/151 ERA+ in 210 innings).

Part of why he fluctuates season to season is that he allows a lot of balls in play. In his career, only about 25 percent of his PAs end in strikeouts or walks.

The 31-year-old has lost one mph off his fastball/sinker but still has gotten solid results overall, though his groundball rate has declined a bit. He lives in the low 90s with a lot of sinkers and mixes in mid-80s sliders and changeups as well as a mid-70s curveball, with equal rates among the off-speed offerings.

Last Outing (vs. TB on June 6) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Wednesday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Sonny Gray vs. TBA
This is Strasburg’s spot in the rotation, but he left his last start early and is on the DL. The likely replacement is Erick Fedde, who has produced middling results in Triple-A. Formerly a top prospect, he’s lost a bit of his luster after three poor starts in 2017 and average results in Triple-A. He had a solid spot start last month. As for his repertoire, he lives in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball, using a slider as his go-to offspeed offering and a changeup that is hit or miss.

The other starters on the Nationals’ 40-man roster that could make the starter are Austin Voth and Jefry Rodriguez, each of whom has been called up at least once this year. Edwin Jackson opted out just before the Nationals’ rash of injuries and former starter A.J. Cole is in the Yankees bullpen. Not a lot of options.

The Bullpen

Acquiring Doolittle and Mason from Oakland last season has helped the Nationals turn their bullpen into a strength, even as Blake Treinen has excelled with the Athletics. Justin Miller has gotten off to a solid start in middle relief and southpaw Sammy Solis continues to get reps there as well.

Shawn Kelley hasn’t been nearly as bad as last season’s 7.27 ERA, but he hasn’t been great. Lefties Tim Collins and Matt Grace have been fine in small samples while righties Trevor Gott and Wander Suero are typically low leverage guys.

With a Monday day off and Scherzer’s start Sunday, the Nationals’ pen should be pretty well rested.

Yankees Connection

You may remember Kelley from his 105 innings in middle relief for the Bombers from 2013-14 before he was traded for Johnny Barbato. Reynolds spent 36 games with the Yankees in late 2013 at first and third base while former Yankee hitting coach Kevin Long is now the Nats’ hitting coach.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • Phew! No Scherzer! The Yankees dodge a bullet there, yet there’s still a ton of star power. I’m always down to watch Harper and Rendon/Turner/Eaton are pretty exciting as well.
  • However, the most exciting thing might be 19-year-old wunderkind Juan Soto. The youngest player in the majors has done nothing but hit at every level with his 72 PAs with the big league club no exception. Perhaps most impressive is his 11 walks vs. 11 strikeouts.

6/8 to 6/10 Series Preview: New York Mets

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This is art. (Mike Strobe/Getty Images)

After a much-needed day off, the Yankees return to New York to … continue their road trip with a brief excursion to Queens.

The Last Time They Met

The Pinstripers swept four games from the Mets last August with two games in the Bronx followed by two games in Queens, none of which were decided by more than two runs.

  • Aaron Judge hit a home run that went to the moon off Robert Gsellman. My eyes say it landed in the upper deck at Citi Field, but logic tells me the ball has just reached Jupiter’s moons.

  • Sonny Gray picked up his first win as a Yankee, beating Jacob deGrom in the Bronx. Aroldis Chapman struggled in that game as he gave up a dinger to rookie Amed Rosario, but the Yankees held on.
  • Gary Sanchez had three homers in the series, including a three-run shot to give Luis Severino an early lead in the series finale. Judge had a couple of long balls as well while Didi Gregorius had the game-winning double in the third game of the series.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

Hard-throwing ace Noah Syndergaard is expected to return in time for Sunday’s series finale after straining a ligament in his his throwing hand. Slugging OF Yoenis Cespedes could return in this series but is more likely to go on rehab assignment against Double-A Trenton this weekend. Catcher Devin Mesoraco is day-to-day and should start at some point in this series.

Outside of them, Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, David Wright and A.J. Ramos are out for this series. Rafael Montero, Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares are done until 2019.

Their Story So Far

At 27-32, the Mets have the fourth worst record in the National League and are sitting in fourth place in their division despite an 11-1 start. The team has lost six straight games in which they’ve scored just seven total runs and looked inept on offense. Over the last two weeks, the team is hitting just .217/.300/.354 (80 wRC+) collectively and it’s often looked much worse. Both Alex Cobb and Jon Lester carried no-hitters into the middle innings against them over the last week.

The next few weeks will be critical for this squad, particularly once Cespedes returns. They’ll need to make up ground in the playoff race soon or else they’ll be faced with an imperative to sell off some big pieces. While they likely wouldn’t trade their top players to the Yankees for PR purposes, Syndergaard and deGrom would fit quite well in the Bronx and the Bombers could probably give the Mets an attractive package of prospects.

Lineup We Might See

1. LF Brandon Nimmo (.267/.407/.533)
2. 2B Asdrubal Cabrera (.286/.328/.498)
3. CF Michael Conforto (.228/.351/.380)
4. 3B Todd Frazier (.230/.345/.393)
5. RF Jay Bruce (.224/.297/.339)
6. C Kevin Plawecki (.205/.375/.273)
7. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.244/.309/.381)
8. Pitcher’s spot
9. SS Amed Rosario (.251/.284/.366)

Mickey Callaway likes to have Amed Rosario ninth and put the pitcher’s spot in the eight hole. The Mets have three catchers on their roster and Jose Reyes, so their bench isn’t optimized all that well.

I miss deGrom with the long hair. (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:10 PM ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Jacob deGrom
deGrom has arguably been the best pitcher in the National League this season. Sporting an NL-best 1.49 ERA, he’s been dominant yet is only 4-0 in 12 starts with the Mets going 5-7 in his appearances thanks to some awful run support. He’s given up one run or fewer in his last three starts while throwing seven innings in each, yet the Mets lost each game.

The 29-year-old righty lives in the mid-to-high-90s with his fastball while going often to his high-80s, low-90s slider that is an adventure to try and hit. He also has a high-80s changeup and an 82-mph curveball. He regular throws over 100 pitches and is pretty efficient doing so. He’s fifth in baseball with a 26.6 K-BB rate.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on June 2) – 7.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 13 K

Saturday (7:15 PM ET): RHP Domingo German vs. LHP Steven Matz
After an injury-plagued 2017 season, Steven Matz has returned to form this season and looks much like the dependable starter he was in 2015-16. He’s held opponents to two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts and is coming off his longest start (seven innings) since July 2017.

He has a 3.42 ERA, though his 5.11 FIP looks like a harbinger of things to come. He walks nearly four per nine and despite sporting a groundball rate above 50 percent, he allows 1.54 homers per nine.

Matz attacks with his 93-mph sinking fastball and goes off speed with both a high-70s curveball and low 80s changeup. He doesn’t tend to go very deep into starts and the Yankees’ offense can certainly knock him out early with their normal patient approach.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on June 3) – 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K

Sunday (8:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard
Noah Syndergaard is coming off the disabled list just in time to face the Bombers. Therefore, Sunday Night Baseball will be a matchup of the two pitchers with the highest average fastball velocity in baseball. Syndergaard averages 97.4 mph on his fastball and often reaches 100+ on the radar. He’s a beast and he has the strikeout numbers to prove it.

Similar to Severino, Syndergaard walks very few batters for a fireballer of his ilk, striking out 28.3 percent of batters and walking just 4.8 percent. Add that to his relatively low home run rate and he’s a sabermetrician’s dream.

The 25-year-old ace goes more to his wiffleball-esque sinker than his four-seamer and goes to his hard slider and changeup often. He’ll also mid in an 83-mph curveball for good measure. He has only gone past the sixth inning twice this season and will be coming off the DL, so his workload will be something to watch on Sunday.

Last Outing (@ MIL on May 25) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 8 K, 1 HR

Update (4:21pm ET): The Mets just announced Syndergaard will not come off the disabled list to start Sunday. It’ll be Seth Lugo instead.

The Bullpen

After looking like a strength to begin the season, the Mets’ bullpen has been disastrous recently. Just ask deGrom! They were 29th in bullpen WAR in May and have needed one of their more effective relievers, Seth Lugo, in a spot start, making matters worse. With Thursday’s day off and seven strong innings from Zack Wheeler on Wednesday, the Mets are well rested in the bullpen.

Jeurys Familia is the closer, though Callaway will occasionally use him in the eighth if that’s when an opponent’s heart of the order comes up. (Fun fact: He’s the last closer to reach 50 saves.) Gsellman and Lugo are used as multi-inning high-leverage relievers while former Yankee Anthony Swarzak will also take some late innings now that he’s off the DL.

Paul Sewald is both a long man and occasional high-leverage guy while Jerry Blevins is a solid LOOGY who hasn’t been effective this year. Hansel Robles and Tim Peterson are back-of-the-roster guys and shouldn’t see high-leverage spots this series.

Yankees Connection

The Toddfather! Todd Frazier is inked into a deal with the Mets for the next 1.5 years after his three months in pinstripes. Swarzak spent four ill-fated months with the Bombers and A.J. Ramos is Giancarlo Stanton’s roommate in NYC. Who gets the house this weekend?

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Mets have their best starters going this weekend. This is the Mets’ best shot at the Bombers and how the Yankees handle it could be a decisive blow to their crosstown foes or a chance for the Mets to stay afloat.
  • Along those lines, how can you not get excited for Severino vs. Syndergaard? They’ll be trading 100-mph fastballs like it’s nothing.

6/5 to 6/6 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

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(Hunter Martin/Getty)

One day after being in Detroit and two days after being in Baltimore, the Yankees are in Toronto to begin a quick two-game series with the Blue Jays later tonight. Three cities and two countries in three days is no fun.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Blue Jays for a four-game set back in April, and came away with three wins. If you remember this series for any one moment in particularly, it’s almost certainly Gleyber Torres making his big league debut in the final game of the series. He went 0-for-4 with a strikeout – I think it’s safe to say that he’s improved a bit since then. Some other notes:

  • The bullpen was leaned on heavily in the first game, as CC Sabathia was limited to just 4.1 IP in his first start back from the disabled list, and they responded brilliantly. Chad Green, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, and Aroldis Chapman combined for the following line – 4.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K.
  • The Yankees had one of their best innings of the year in the bottom of the 6th of game three, plating seven runs and sending twelve batters to the plate. And they scored those 7 runs without hitting a home run, to boot.
  • Miguel Andujar capped the series off by going 4-for-4 with 2 doubles, raising his season line to .308/.327/.596. He went 7-for-12 in the series as a whole.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more interesting tidbits.

Injury Report

Josh Donaldson, Steve Pearce, Marcus Stroman, and Troy Tulowitzki are all on the disabled list, and none will be back for this series.

Their Story So Far

Toronto is 26-33 with a -27 run differential, but that may paint an overly optimistic portrait of the team as-is. The Blue Jays were 12-5 with a +38 run differential when they started their last series against the Yankees, and they’ve been rubbish since. They’ve had injuries aplenty, Roberto Osuna was placed on administrative leave while he awaits a trial for assault, and Russell Martin has made starts at third, short, and left as the team scrambles to trot out a starting lineup everyday. To put things into context, their offense is the strongest aspect of the team right now, and they rank 18th in baseball in wRC+.

Meanwhile, fans of all ages and loyalties are waiting for wunderkind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to get his call to the show.

The Lineup We Might See

A sense of normalcy has settled over the Blue Jays lineup to some extent, excepting for Donaldson returning to the disabled list. Manager Jay Gibbons utilizes a platoon at the top of the lineup, but everything else is fairly straightforward.

  1. Teoscar Hernandez, LF – .254/.301/.514, 8 HR, 3 SB
  2. Yangervis Solarte, 3B – .257/.322/.477, 12 HR, 0 SB
  3. Justin Smoak, 1B – .258/.386/.468, 9 HR, 0 SB
  4. Kendrys Morales, DH – .194/.267/.321, 4 HR, 2 SB
  5. Kevin Pillar, CF – .259/.301/.423, 4 HR, 9 SB
  6. Russell Martin, C – .174/.314/.318, 5 HR, 0 SB
  7. Devon Travis, 2B – .200/.262/.326, 2 HR, 0 SB
  8. Randal Grichuk, RF – .120/.209/.280, 3 HR, 1 SB
  9. Aledmys Diaz, SS – .221/.279/.425, 6 HR, 1 SB

Curtis Granderson (.219/.352/.380, 4 HR, 1 SB) will probably get the start in left and bat leadoff against Sonny Gray.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:07 PM EST) – LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Marco Estrada

Estrada has struggled mightily thus far, pitching to a 5.68 ERA (5.21 FIP) through 11 starts. He’s allowed at least 4 runs in 7 of those starts, and his strikeout (16.5%) and groundball (26.0%) rates are the worst of his career. At 34-years-old one has to wonder if this is the beginning (or the middle) of the end.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 5/29) – 3.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Wednesday (7:07 PM EST) – RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Sam Gaviglio

Gaviglio has been something of a godsend for the Blue Jays, stepping into the rotation when Stroman went down and performing admirably through three starts (17.1 IP, 16 H, 3 BB, 16 K, 3.63 ERA). He’s primarily a sinker/slider guy, with his high-80s sinker and mid-80s slider accounting for upwards of 75% of his offerings in a given game. There’s not a ton of separation his stuff, as his little used change-up comes in in the mid-80s, so he’s all about deception and weak contact.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 5/30) – 6.0 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 0 BB, 4 K

The Bullpen

The absence of Osuna hasn’t doomed the Blue Jays thus far. In fact, the bullpen has been quite good on the whole, utilizing a closer by committee approach with Tyler Clippard (yes, that Tyler Clippard – he has a 3.41 ERA and 9.9 K/9), Ryan Tepera (3.14 ERA, 10.0 K/9), and Seung-Hwan Oh (3.12 ERA, 9.7 K/9) picking up the slack. Aaron Loup (3.22 ERA) and John Axford (3.33 ERA) have been good, too. They don’t have a true shutdown reliever out there right now, but it’s not quite quantity over quality, either.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It would be pretty great if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was called-up today or tomorrow, but that’s almost certainly not happening; I’m nevertheless already all-in for the Torres vs. Guerrero storylines. Other than that, the most exciting thing about the Blue Jays right now is either Kevin Pillar’s defense, or wondering what position Russell Martin will end up at next.

5/31 to 6/3 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

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Machado going deep. (Rob Carr/Getty)

Nearly one-third of the way through the season, the Yankees are finally heading to Camden Yards. First series of the year in Baltimore. This is four-game weekend set

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted Baltimore for a four-game series back in April, and it didn’t go so well for the good guys. The Orioles took three of four, picking up two extra innings victories along the way, and are one of two teams with a winning record against the Yankees this year – the other being the also subpar Texas Rangers. Some notes from the series:

  • Didi Gregorius thoroughly enjoyed hitting against the Orioles staff, going 4-for-10 with two doubles, a home run, two steals, and six walks (against just one strikeout).
  • Manny Machado showed what he is capable of in Yankee Stadium – perhaps a sign of things to come over 81 games next year – going 7-for-19 with a double and two home runs.
  • Aaron Judge robbed a home run, and it was glorious.
  • It seems akin to a distant memory or a fever dream, but Jace Peterson made two starts in left for the Yankees, and acquitted himself fairly well in going 3-for-9 with a walk. Why do I bring this up? Because Peterson was picked up by the Orioles after being cut loose by the Yankees, and he’s receiving fairly regular playing time.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Baltimore is banged-up, with two position players (Tim Beckham and Colby Rasmus), a starter (Chris Tillman), and their top-two relievers (Zach Britton and Darren O’Day) on the disabled list. None of them are expected to return for this series, though it is worth noting that Britton and Tillman have resumed throwing, so a surprise return isn’t out of the question.

Their Story So Far

The Orioles are 17-39 with a -88 run differential, both of which represent the second-worst marks in baseball. They’ve lost five in a row by a combined score of 24-6, and this represents their fifth five-plus game skid of 2018. They’re 27th in the majors in runs allowed, 29th in runs scored, and 30th in defensive runs saved, so they’re not particularly good (or even passable) at anything right now. Of course, that didn’t stop them from taking three of four from the Yankees eight weeks ago, so anything is possible.

The Lineup We Might See

The injury to Tim Beckham has forced Buck Showalter to be a bit creative, as he was the team’s everyday third baseman prior to undergoing core surgery. Danny Valencia, Pedro Alvarez, and Jace Peterson have filled in at the hot corner, but Showalter has yet to settle on a regular there, instead riding the hot hand. And that flows into the DH role, as well, as Alvarez splits time there with Mark Trumbo. All that being said, their lineup may end up looking something like this:

  1. Trey Mancini, LF – .232/.309/.372, 7 HR, 0 SB
  2. Adam Jones, CF – .281/.297/.464, 9 HR, 0 SB
  3. Manny Machado, SS – .324/.392/.612, 16 HR, 2 SB
  4. Jonathan Schoop, 2B – .230/.258/.375, 5 HR, 0 SB
  5. Chris Davis, 1B – .156/.239/.244, 4 HR, 0 SB
  6. Mark Trumbo, RF – .303/.326/.449, 2 HR, 0 SB
  7. Pedro Alvarez, DH – .190/.302/.450, 8 HR, 0 SB
  8. Danny Valencia, 3B – .279/.339/.471, 5 HR, 0 SB
  9. Chance Sisco, C – .211/.318/.337, 2 HR, 1 SB
Bundy. (Rob Carr/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Andrew Cashner

I poked fun at Cashner the last time these teams met, and, of course, he ended up shutting down the Yankees for six innings (6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 5 K). He followed that up with an even better outing against the Blue Jays (7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 K), and you could squint hard enough to see a repeat of his 2017 unfolding. Regression struck quickly, though, and opposing batters have hit .324/.401/.553 against Cashner in his last eight starts, over which time he’s posted a 6.17 ERA. That’s more like it.

Last outing (vs. TBR on 5/26) – 5.0 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 4 BB, 4 K

Friday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Kevin Gausman

Gausman has seemingly settled in as a league-average starter in his age-27, pitching to a 4.31 ERA (97 ERA+) and 4.43 FIP in 11 starts. He now has a perfectly average 100 ERA+ in his career, and a slightly above-average 96 FIP-. That might not be what you want from a 4th overall pick, but it’s not bad – especially for a team that has had severe issues with developing starting pitching. And Gausman did look pretty good against the Yankees earlier this year, holding them to 2 runs in 5 innings on April 6.

Last outing (vs. TBR on 5/27) – 2.2 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 1 K

Saturday (4:05 PM EST): RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Alex Cobb

Cobb’s season started about two weeks late, the result of him waiting to sign until March 20. The early returns haven’t been pretty, as he’s pitched to a 6.80 ERA (62 ERA+) in nine starts, and has yet to find any semblance of a groove. He has provided the Orioles with a bit of length, though, finishing six innings four times and pitching into the sixth another time, and he does have a track record of success in the AL East.

Cobb is a three-pitch guy, featuring a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s splitter, and a low-80s curve. He’ll mix in a straight fastball every now and then, but he’ll go full starts without throwing a four-seamer.

Last outing (vs. WAS on 5/28) – 7 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 3 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Dylan Bundy

Buck Showalter’s old school mindset is often on full display with Bundy, who has thrown 100-plus pitching in four starts, and 98 in another two. The 25-year-old has a history of elbow and shoulder issues, but the team will continue to trot him out there until he hits the proverbial wall – and it’s a shame, as it would feel like he was on borrowed time regardless of the pitch count. Bundy has produced strong strikeout (28.3%) and walk (6.8%) rates this year, but his 4.46 ERA is a tick below league-average.

Bundy is something close to a five-pitch pitcher. He mostly relies on his low-90s four-seamer, low-80s slider, and mid-70s curve, but he’ll also sprinkle in a low-90s sinker and a mid-80s change-up. His slider is a true swing-and-miss offering, with a 33.2% whiff rate.

Last outing (vs. WAS on 5/29) – 6.0 IP, 11 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 6 K

The Bullpen

The Orioles bullpen has settled down into league-average territory after struggling for the first week of the season, and currently sports a 99 ERA+ (18th in the majors) and 0.53 WPA (17th). The problem is that they’re also 29th in shutdown appearances, as they don’t really have a true stud in the group right now. Brad Brach (3.43 ERA) has been solid as the closer, and Richard Bleier’s odd brilliance (2.33 ERA despite an 11.5% strikeout rate) is fun, but the absence of Britton and O’Day has everyone pitching at a slot higher than they probably should be. Though, to be fair, this group isn’t a joke, and it has performed mostly admirably considering the circumstances.

Who (Or What) To Watch

I have a soft spot for Dylan Bundy, as I followed his ups and downs as a prospect closely, and I always enjoy seeing a player come back from potentially career-ending circumstances. And, as always, Manny Machado is worth the price of admission.