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5/4 to 5/6 Series Preview: Cleveland Indians

May 4, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The Yankees are entering the final series of their eighteen games in eighteen days stretch, and it’s safe to say that they’ve surpassed most reasonable expectations – even with three games to go. They’re 13-2 thus far, and have outscored their opponents 88 to 36, which is nothing short of remarkable. The Indians may not be quite as good as expected thus far, but they’re still a dangerous team, and another intriguing test for the Yankees.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees and Indians faced off in the 2017 ALDS, and the good guys advanced despite dropping the first two games of the series. It was equal parts wonderful and nail-biting, and it was a moderate upset, to boot. Some notes from the series:

The Yankees offense was buoyed by strong performances from Didi Gregorius (.235/.435/.588), Greg Bird (.222/.364/.556), and Aaron Hicks (.316/.350/.526). Those three combined for five of the team’s seven home runs, and ten of their nineteen runs batted in. The team, as a whole, slashed .201/.289/.356.
Aroldis Chapman had a brilliant series, pitching to the following line in three appearances: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 K.
Masahiro Tanaka came up huge in game three, tossing 7 scoreless and striking out 7. You may also remember that game for this home run:

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more interesting tidbits from the series.

Injury Report

The Indians have a fair bit of talent on the disabled list right now. Relievers Cody Anderson (recovering from March 2017 Tommy John Surgery) and Nick Goody (elbow inflammation) will not return for this series, and Andrew Miller (hamstring strain) is out as well. There’s a chance Miller could return Sunday, the first day he is eligible to be activated off the disabled list. Starting pitcher Ryan Merritt (knee sprain) has yet to pitch this year, but he’s starting to rehab in the minors so he could be back in a couple of weeks. Infielder Gio Urshela (hamstring strain) and outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall (calf strain) are out, as well, though both are close to returning.

Their Story So Far

Cleveland is 17-14 with a +12 differential, and are leading the AL Central by 3.5 games. They’re not quite the juggernaut that many (most?) expected heading into the season – but it’s May 4, and they’ve dealt with a fair amount of injuries. Their offense (10th in runs, 16th in wRC+) and pitching (13th in runs, 9th in ERA+) have both been middle of the pack thus far, but that can change in a hurry.

Francisco Lindor struggled out of the gate, and needed a late flurry to finish April with a 100 wRC+. He’s heating up now, though, and has hit .435 with 3 home runs in four games in May.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Terry Francona has been pretty steady with his lineup deployment, with most of the tinkering revolving around giving players the day off. He plays around with platoons, as well, but he’s not strict about it. As such, we’ll probably see something along these lines:

Francisco Lindor, SS – .278/.347/.496, 7 HR, 5 SB
Jason Kipnis, 2B – .202/.283/.298, 1 HR, 0 SB
Jose Ramirez, 3B – .277/.372/.538, 8 HR, 3 SB
Michael Brantley, LF – .348/.368/.562, 3 HR, 1 SB
Edwin Encarnacion, DH – .209/.283/.452, 9 HR, 0 SB
Yonder Alonso, 1B – .213/.277/.454, 8 HR, 0 SB
Yan Gomes, C – .250/.329/.461, 4 HR, 0 SB
Tyler Naquin, RF – .311/.354/.393, 1 HR, 0 SB
Bradley Zimmer, CF – .227/.284/.307, 1 HR, 4 SB

Of course, Francona could choose to shake things up against CC Sabathia, swapping Encarnacion and Brantley and squeezing Rajai Davis (39 wRC+) and Brandon Guyer (82 wRC+) into the lineup.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Josh Tomlin

I’m running the risk of a reverse-jinx here, but I feel the need to point out that Tomlin (1) has an 8.57 ERA in 21 IP in Yankee Stadium, (2) has allowed 10 home runs in 18.2 IP this year, and (3) rarely throws a pitch above 89 MPH. He did shut the Yankees down in the ALDS, though, toss three perfect innings across two appearances … so, there’s that.

Tomlin is a junkballer with five distinct offerings – a mid-to-high 80s four-seamer, a mid-t0-high 80s sinker, a mid-80s cutter, a low-80s change-up, and a mid-70s curve. He has good command and control of all five when he’s on, but none of them are true swing and miss pitches.

Last outing (vs. SEA on 4/29) – 6.0 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 0 BB, 3 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Trevor Bauer

Bauer is best-known for either his unique workout habits or his well-earned blowhard label, but he has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career. And, through six starts in his age-27 season, it kind of looks like he’s beginning to put things together. Bauer has a 2.45 ERA (185 ERA+) and 3.33 FIP through 40.1 IP, and he’s racking up whiffs (27.2% strikeouts). That’s not really the story of his season, for better or worse, because of his mini-tirade about the Astros pitching staff the other day.

Labeling Bauer is a bit difficult, because he throws six distinct pitches. His mid-90s fastball, low-to-mid 80s slider, and high-70s curve represent 85% of his offerings, but he uses a sinker, change-up, and cutter, as well. And the game-to-game utilization of those three fluctuates strongly, based upon how he feels on the day.

Last outing (vs. TEX on 4/30) – 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 11 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Mike Clevinger

Clevinger broke out last season, pitching to a 3.11 ERA (150 ERA+) in 121.2 IP, and earned a spot in the Indians rotation in 2018 as a result. There were questions about his ability to throw strikes, though, as he walked 12% of batters faced last year – and that was a trend in the minors, as well. Of course, when you prevent runs and strike out 27.3% of batters, it’s forgivable. That has changed completely this year, though, as Clevinger’s strikeout (19.0%) and walk (6.5%) rates have dipped dramatically; that’s a product of approach, as he’s throwing far more pitches in the zone.

Clevinger is a four-pitch guy, with a mid-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, low-80s slider, and mid-70s curve. The slider and curve are both swing and miss offerings when they’re on.

Last outing (vs. TEX on 5/1) – 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 K

The Bullpen

I was tempted to just right “it’s not good,” and move on – but I’ll add a bit of flavor. The Indians bullpen currently sports a 5.00 ERA and 4.54 FIP, both of which are in the bottom five of all of baseball. And they’ve only thrown 90 IP, the second-fewest of any team in baseball, which makes the fact that they’ve already taken seven losses kind of staggering.

The injuries to Miller (0.00 ERA in 10.0 IP before he went down) and Anderson (hasn’t pitched this year) don’t help, as they only have one regular reliever with an ERA below 4.40 – and that’s closer Cody Allen. The injured Nick Goody, Tyler Olson, and Zach McAllister all have at least 10 IP and an ERA above 5.00. And the fact that the bullpen had to pick-up 7.1 innings in yesterday’s double-header against the Blue Jays means that they’ll be a bit limited for this series.

Yankees Connection

It seems as though the Indians have a thing for Yankees relievers. In addition to the currently DL’d Nick Goody and Andrew Miller, Cleveland has Zach McAllister (Yankees 3rd rounder in 2006, traded for Austin Kearns in 2010) and Tyler Olson (organizational depth in 2016) in the bullpen.

Who (Or What) To Watch

As was the case with the Astros, this is a match-up of two of the best teams in baseball (even if the Indians have been up and down so far). That makes it a series worth watching for fans of all allegiances, and a special treat for fans of these teams.

Lindor’s defense is pretty wonderful, too, as is Zimmer’s glove in center.

4/30 to 5/3 Series Preview: Houston Astros

April 30, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Correa, Springer, & Reddick. (Bob Levey/Getty)

The road trip continues this week with a four-game series in Houston. The last time the Yankees visited Minute Maid Park, the stakes were quite a bit higher.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees surprisingly wonderful 2017 came to an end at the hands of the Astros last season, as the eventual World Series champions bounced the Yankees in the ALCS. It went to seven games, though, and the Yankees outscored the Astros 22-20 in defeat. A few notes from the series:

Yankees pitchers held the Astros to a .187/.271/.294 slash line … which made the Yankees’ .205/.274/.347 line look positively stout in comparison.
Aaron Judge raked in the ALCS, slashing .250/.357/.708 with 3 HR and 7 RBI. Those three home runs represented 30% of the homers in the series as a whole.
Masahiro Tanaka was in full-blown ace mode in his two starts, pitching a 1.38 ERA and allowing just 9 baserunners in 13 IP.
Unfortunately, Justin Verlander was not to be outdone. He tossed 16 innings of 0.56 ERA ball in his two starts, allowing just 12 baserunners while striking out 21. Verlander was named the ALCS MVP for his efforts.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more interesting notes from the ALCS.

Injury Report

Houston has been incredibly healthy so far, and their disabled list is populated by a couple of relievers (Brady Rodgers and Jandel Gustave) that are recovering from 2017 elbow operations. Neither is expected back until this Summer.

Their Story So Far

The Astros are 19-10 with an MLB-best +66 run differential. Their success has been largely due to fantastic pitching, as they’ve allowed an MLB-low 81 runs in those 29 games. What makes that even more incredible is the fact that the only two teams within 10 runs of the Astros (the Red Sox and Diamondbacks) have played just 27 games. And the fact that they’re fourth in the league in runs scored and fifth in wRC+ is simply icing on the cake – this team is an all-around juggernaut.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager A.J. Hinch utilizes a rotating cast of players at catcher, first base, and all three outfield positions, as a means to both keep players healthy, and to maintain the platoon advantage. He does not strictly platoon players, though, and he has a reputation for riding the hot hand. That being said, the standard lineup is something like this:

George Springer, CF – .267/.346/.491, 130 wRC+
Jose Altuve, 2B – .351/.409/.447, 142 wRC+
Carlos Correa, SS – .320/.387/.520, 146 wRC+
Yulieski Gurriel, DH – .220/.276/.360, 73 wRC+
Josh Reddick, RF – .241/.347/.470, 126 wRC+
Alex Bregman, 3B – .262/.373/.364, 113 wRC+
Marwin Gonzalez, 1B – .239/.333/.359, 96 wRC+
Brian McCann, C – .286/.414/.429, 141 wRC+
Derek Fisher, LF – .184/.226/.408, 68 wRC+

Max Stassi (129 wRC+) will probably get at least one start behind the plate, probably with Jordan Montgomery on the mound; Evan Gattis (72 wRC+) will get at least one start at DH; and Jake Marisnick (20 wRC+) will probably get a start in center.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (8:10 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Charlie Morton

After years of injuries and inconsistent performance, Morton put it all together in 2017, his age-33 season. He pitched to a 110 ERA+ in 146.2 IP, with stellar strikeout (26.4%) and groundball (51.8%) rates. Through five starts it appears as though that wasn’t even his final form, as he has a 212 ERA+, 29.4% strikeouts, and 59.2% grounders in 29.0 innings. There’s quite a bit of season to go, so it’s premature to put much stock into those numbers, but it’s clear that the Astros did quite well with their 2-year, $14 MM investment eighteen months ago.

Morton is essentially a three-pitch guy, with a mid-90s four-seam fastball, mid-90s sinker, and knee-buckling curveball representing about 90% of his offerings. He’ll also mix in a cutter and a splitter, both of which check-in in the upper-80s.

Last outing (vs. LAA on 4/24) – 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 5 BB, 2 K

Tuesday (8:10 PM EST): LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Justin Verlander

It would not be a stretch to say that Verlander has been the best pitcher in baseball since joining the Astros. The 35-year-old has pitched to the following ridiculous line in 17 games (including the postseason) – 110.1 IP, 60 H, 21 BB, 129 K, 1.55 ERA. He also has a 13-1 record if you care about such things. Verlander looked toast in 2014 and was hurt in 2015, but he’s been stellar over the last two-plus seasons.

Verlander is largely the same pitcher he’s always been, stuff-wise, featuring a mid-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s slider, and a low-80s curve. Don’t sleep on his changeup either.

Last outing (vs. LAA on 4/25) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 9 K

Wednesday (8:10 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel

Keuchel has been the weak link in the Astros rotation so far, with a 4.00 ERA (99 ERA+) in 36.0 IP. That’s not quite bad enough to make me forget how dominant he has been against the Yankees, though – Keuchel has a 1.59 ERA in 62.1 IP against the Yankees, including three playoff starts. The Yankees did get the better of Keuchel in Game 5 of the ALCS, scoring 4 runs in 4.2 IP against the southpaw, and getting to the bullpen early.

Keuchel is a five-pitch guy, with three fastballs in the high-80s (four-seamer, sinker, cutter), a low-80s change-up, and a high-70s slider.

Last outing (vs. OAK on 4/27) – 7.0 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 0 BB, 3 K

Thursday (2:10 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Lance McCullers Jr.

McCullers is in his fourth season in the majors, despite being just 24-years-old, and he remains a tantalizingly promising pitcher. The trouble has been that McCullers has dealt with a litany of injuries, which limited him to 118.2 IP in 2017, and 81.0 IP in 2016. His strikeout (27.0%) and grounder (55.1%) rates have been elite every year, but he needs to prove that he can stay healthy.

McCullers is a four-pitch pitcher, featuring a mid-90s four-seamer, a mid-90s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, and a mid-80s curve. His curve is his best pitch, and he throws it just under 50% of the time.

Last outing (vs. OAK on 4/28) – 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K

The Bullpen

Houston has been running a fairly unique bullpen this season, embracing something resembling a closer by committee. Hinch uses Chris Devenski (0.75 ERA), Will Harris (1.69 ERA), and Ken Giles (2.00 ERA) as firemen/bullpen aces as opposed to picking a traditional closer, and it has worked out quite well so far. Collin McHugh (0.84 ERA) is the long man, and Brad Peacock (2.84 ERA) and Hector Rondon (1.74 ERA) are the middle relievers.

Yankees Connection

The Yankees dealt Brian McCann to the Astros in November of 2016 to completely free-up the catcher position for Gary Sanchez, and I don’t think either team regrets the move. Sanchez is amazing, and McCann has put up 2.3 fWAR in 115 games as the Astros strong-side of the platoon catcher.

Who (Or What) To Watch

These are two of the best teams in baseball – what more do you need?

4/27 to 4/29 Series Preview: Los Angeles Angels

April 27, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Trout, Ohtani, & Upton. (Brian Davidson/Getty)

This series represents the midpoint of the Yankees’ eighteen games in eighteen days stretch, and they have done quite well so far, taking three out of four from the Blue Jays and sweeping the Twins. That being said, the second leg of this stretch is a bit more foreboding, as they have three games in Los Angeles and four in Houston before returning home for three against Cleveland.

The Last Time They Met

The Angels visited the Bronx from June 20 through June 22, taking two of three from the Yankees. That came a week after taking two of three from the Yankees in Los Angeles. Those two series book-ended a deflating seven-game losing streak, the middle of which was a four-game sweep at the hands of the A’s. Ugh. Here are some notes from the most recent series:

Mike Trout did not play, which makes the series as a whole sting that much more.
Tyler Clippard completed his transformation to unplayable in this series, pitching to the following line in two appearances – 0.1 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K. His ERA jumped from 2.22 prior to the series to 3.77 when it was over.
Aaron Judge hit his 24th and 25th home runs of the year in this series, becoming the first rookie outfielder to reach those marks before the All-Star break – which, of course, was still a few weeks away.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more interesting tidbits.

Injury Report

Pitchers Alex Meyer, J.C. Ramirez, Matt Shoemaker, and Blake Wood are all on the disabled list, and none are expected to return for this series.

Their Story So Far

The Angels are 16-9, and sit just half a game back of the Astros for first place in the AL West. They’ve only outscored their opponents by 16 runs, though, so they may not be quite as good as their record indicates. Offense has not been an issue for the Angels, as they rank in the top-ten in baseball in both runs scored and wRC+, but their pitching has been mediocre as a whole. They’re in the middle of the pack in runs allowed and park-adjusted ERA, which isn’t bad – but they’re bottom-five in home runs per nine and walk rate.

Shohei Ohtani has been their biggest point of interest so far this year (even as Mike Trout continues to be an absolute beast), as he has raked to the tune of a 174 wRC+, and been competent on the mound (94 ERA+). The Yankees won’t see him on the mound this weekend, but he’ll probably start at DH at least once or twice.

The Lineup We Might See

Mike Scioscia is constantly tinkering with the lineup, as he rotates multiple players through first base, second base, third base, and DH. That is largely by design, though, as the Angels have versatile defenders in Zack Cozart and Luis Valbuena, and a part-time DH in the aforementioned Ohtani. They’ve already used nineteen different lineups, so it’s difficult to guess what they’ll trot out on any given day – but I expect something like this:

Ian Kinsler, 2B – .239/.308/.304, 76 wRC+
Mike Trout, CF – .295/.404/.663, 189 wRC+
Justin Upton, LF – .235/.304/.398, 95 wRC+
Albert Pujols, 1B – .257/.279/.455, 100 wRC+
Andrelton Simmons, SS – .318/.396/.471, 146 wRC+
Shohei Ohtani, DH – .333/.378/.619, 171 wRC+
Luis Valbuena, 3B – .234/.263/.364, 74 wRC+
Kole Calhoun, RF – .174/.200/.228, 18 wRC+
Martin Maldonado, C – .172/.273/.207, 46 wRC+

Zack Cozart (.226/.284/.376, 84 wRC+) will almost certainly start over Valbuena against CC Sabathia, and Ohtani will probably sit that day, too. If he does, Pujols will probably DH, and Jefry Marte (.378/.425/.595, 184 wRC+ in 40 PA) will start at 1B.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (10:07 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Andrew Heaney

Heaney was a consensus top-50 prospect in baseball in 2014 and 2015, but he has yet to fulfill that promise. He was quite good in 2015, pitching to a 3.49 ERA (108 ERA+) in 105.2 IP, but Tommy John Surgery kept him out for all but one start in 2016 and five last season, and he hasn’t looked the same just yet. We’re talking about a sample size of 31 post-TJS innings, though, and he’s still just 26 – but he has a 7.84 ERA (8.04 FIP) in those innings, and his stuff isn’t fully back.

Heaney is a three-pitch guy, with a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, and a high-70s/low-80s curve. His curveball is his best pitch, and a true swing-and-miss offering when it’s on.

Last Outing (vs. SF on 4/20) – 4.1 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Saturday (9:07 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Garrett Richards

There aren’t many pitchers whose injury woes have been as maddening as Richards over the last few years, as the 29-year-old has pitched like a top flight starter when healthy … while missing roughly 50 starts between 2016 and 2017. He has a 3.08 ERA (123 ERA+) in 464.1 IP since becoming a full-time starter back in 2014, and that’s the level he’s pitching at this season, so things are looking up for him. He’s walking a ton of batters this year (16 in 26 innings), but he’s striking out even more (35 strikeouts) and keeping the ball on the ground (55.0% GB).

Richards is a power pitcher, featuring a mid-90s four-seamer, a mid-90s sinker, a low-90s cutter/slider hybrid, and a low-80s curveball.

Last Outing (vs. SF on 4/21) – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 11 K

Sunday (8:07 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Tyler Skaggs

The story of Skaggs’s career isn’t all that different from Heaney’s; Skaggs was the superior prospect (he peaked near the top-10), and his TJS came back in 2014. And Skaggs has dealt with lingering arm soreness since then, as well. He’s been quite good so far this year, though, pitching to a 2.96 ERA (140 ERA+) in 27.1 IP, including a shutdown performance against the Astros earlier this week.

Skaggs is a four-pitch guy, with a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, and a mid-70s curveball. He throws that curveball roughly a third of the time, too.

Last Outing (vs. HOU on 4/23) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K

The Bullpen

The Angels bullpen has been surprisingly stout so far, ranking fourth in the majors in WPA and tenth in ERA. Closer Keynan Middleton has a 1.93 ERA in 14.0 IP, and lefty specialist Jose Alvarez (0.82 ERA in 11.0 IP) has been among the best in the league in his role. The injury to Blake Wood hurts their depth a bit, but Cam Bedrosian, Blake Parker, and Jim Johnson are all solid hands.

Yankees Connection

There are only two players of note here, in Blake Parker and Chris Young. Parker tossed 16.1 subpar innings for the Yankees in 2016, and was picked up by the Angels on waivers that October. And Young (.257/.326/.465 with 17 home runs in pinstripes) was signed to a one-year, $2 MM to be the Angels fourth outfielder in February.

Who (Or What) To Watch

There’s the novelty of Shohei Ohtani, the all-around brilliance of Mike Trout, and the all-time great defense of Andrelton Simmons, to name a few. And, if you think he could go on a mini-tear, it could be worth noting that Albert Pujols is just 6 hits shy of 3000.

4/23 to 4/26 Series Preview: Minnesota Twins

April 23, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

Mauer and Dozier … and Cervelli in between! (Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

The Yankees head into the final series of their homestand on a roll after winning three of four against the Blue Jays. Now, a familiar non-division foe enters the Bronx for a four-game set.

The Last Time They Met

In case you forgot, the Yankees and Twins met in the 2017 American League Wild Card Game. For the 10th straight time, the Yankees beat the Twins in the playoffs and this time in a winner-take-all game.

Luis Severino was out of the game six batters into the game (I kinda called it?), but the Yankees backed him up with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball out of the bullpen. Chad Green, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman each had some of their best postseason moments in that game.
Didi Gregorius hit a tying home run in the bottom of the first inning and the Yankees never looked back. Aaron Judge and Brett Gardner added homers of their own while Greg Bird and Aaron Hicks each had an RBI.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that game and the ALDS.

Injury Report

Byron Buxton is on the 10-day disabled list due to migraines and is on rehab assignment. He could be back mid-way through the series. Minor league/40-man roster OF Zack Granite is on the DL with a shoulder contusion.

On the pitching side, Trevor May and Michael Pineda are recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t be in games for a while. Wild Card Game starter Ervin Santana is slated for a late-May return from middle finger surgery on his throwing hand.

Their Story So Far

Thanks to some unfortunate weather breaks and some scheduled days off, the Twins have played just 16 games and are 8-8. In fact, they’ve only played five games in the last 10 days. Minnesota is coming off an unfortunate sweep at the hands of the Rays of all teams. The team strikes out a fair amount at the plate, though the squad takes its walks and hits for some power. Still, their wOBA is 19th in baseball. The pitching staff has been a little walk happy but generally middle-of-the-pack.

As for their individual hitters, Brian Dozier has a 23-game hit streak dating back to last season. It’s 16 straight games this season. Joe Mauer has been hitting like his old self and recently eclipsed 2,000 hits for his career. And before he was shelved with migraines, Buxton had continued last season’s trend of starting off slowly despite his hot finish to 2017.

Lineup We Might See

The Yankees will toss two lefties and two righties against Minnesota this series, but the Twins toss out pretty similar lineups against pitchers of either side. Here’s how they often stack up against righties:

1. 2B Brian Dozier
2. 1B Joe Mauer
3. 3B Miguel Sano
4. LF Eddie Rosario
5. DH Logan Morrison
6. SS Eduardo Escobar
7. CF Max Kepler
8. RF Robbie Grossman
9. C Jason Castro

Berrios in the Wild Card Game (Elsa/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Jake Odorizzi
Traded from the Rays for a limited return, Odorizzi is plenty familiar with the Yankees. He went 0-2 while struggling through two starts against the Bombers last season and is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) against them in his career. Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Ronald Torreyes all have homers off him, but he’s fared well against the non-Judge healthy Yankees in his career.

Odorizzi is off to an OK start to 2018 with a 3.38 ERA over 21 1/3 innings in four starts. He’s traditionally outpitched his FIP, which is 5.35 this year thanks to too many walks and homers, both of which have been problems in his career. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher, which doesn’t play well at Yankee Stadium. So far this season, he’s used a sinker more than his traditional four-seamer while still working in a splitter, curveball, cutter and slider.

Last Outing (vs. CLE on Apr. 17 in Puerto Rico) – 5.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 3 HR

Tuesday (6:35 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Jose Berrios
This will be quite the matchup for the Yankees as Jose Berrios has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He entered Sunday second in both fWAR and bWAR for pitchers. Over four starts, he has a 1.63 ERA over 27 1/3 innings. He has a 29.3 percent strikeout rate … and a 1.0 percent walk rate. Yup, he’s issued just one walk this season (in addition to one hit-by-pitch). His control has been impeccable.

Berrios averages 94.2 mph on his fastball, which he throws just over a third of the time. He also works in a sinker and changeup, but his best pitch is his 82 mph curveball. For my money, it’s one of my favorite pitches to see in all of baseball. Berrios was lit up by the Yankees in the Wild Card Game and needed 90 pitches to get 10 outs in a start vs. them last September. Still, he’s gonna be a lot to handle.

Last Outing (vs. CLE on Apr. 18 in Puerto Rico) – 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K

Wednesday (6:35 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Lance Lynn
Lance Lynn was one of the pitchers hit hardest by the slow free agent market. A long-time cog in the Cardinals’ rotation, the 30-year-old settled for a one-year, $12 million deal despite expectations he’d get that much per year over at least 3-4 years. Good for the Twins to try and get a bargain late in the offseason (he signed March 12).

Lynn hasn’t looked very good in his new uniform. While he’s struck out 19 batters over 15 innings, he’s walked 15 as well, sporting a 6.00 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. For reference, he’s coming off 186 1/3 innings in 2017 where he had a 3.43 ERA and issued just 78 walks. Lynn comes after hitters with his low-90s fastball with the occasional curveball or slider. He hasn’t faced the Yankees since 2014, when he threw a five-hit shutout.

Last Outing (@ TB on Apr. 20) – 6.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 BB, 7 K

Thursday (1:05 PM EST): LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Kyle Gibson
Kyle Gibson is off to a mixed start to 2018. After throwing six no-hit innings in his first start (albeit with five walks), he’s struggled and hasn’t posted a quality start since. He was fine against Tampa his last time out, but two bad innings led to a loss.

The 30-year-old throws a low-90s fastball/sinker the majority of the time while working in a changeup, slider and curveball. Gibson has never fared all that well against the Yankees. He’s 1-4 with a 9.31 ERA over 29 innings in six starts against the Bombers, though he didn’t face them last season and doesn’t have an extensive history against the current lineup.

Last Outing (@ TB on Apr. 21) – 6.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 7 K, 1 HR

The Bullpen

The Twins added a pair of relievers to the back-end of their bullpen this offseason: Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed. Rodney is his normal self, having blown two saves and converted two more while Addison Reed has allowed three runs in 11 innings. Trevor Hildenberger has been fine in his second season while Zach Duke and Taylor Rogers are the lefties in the ‘pen. Both Duke and Rogers have struggled.

Alan Busenitz has been effective in three outings while Ryan Pressly has yet to give up a run while mostly pitching in low leverage situations. Rule 5 Draft pick Tyler Kinley has pitched sparingly.

The team needed 4 2/3 innings out of its bullpen on Sunday, though Pressly (1.2 innings) was the only pitcher to record more than three outs. Reed, Pressly and Rogers have pitched two of the last three nights. None of their relievers pitched both Saturday and Sunday.

Yankees Connection

Phil Hughes made his first start of the season Sunday and struggled through 3 1/3 innings. Former Yankee farmhands Jake Cave and Zack Littell are in the minors but on the 40-man roster while Pineda is on the 60-day DL.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

Just like the Jays series, this is another measuring stick series. The Twins are a playoff contender and sport a strong lineup, plus they’ll toss their best healthy starters in this four-game set.

As for who to watch, Berrios. He’s been a force all season. Even though he took the loss in the Wild Card Game last year, he’s the one pitcher that would worry me if I’m Aaron Boone.

4/19 to 4/22 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

April 19, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Tonight’s game represents the first game in an eighteen games in eighteen days stretch, as the Yankees will not enjoy another day off until May 7. Will it allow the team to round into form, as players can finally (hopefully) get used to a consistent schedule? Or will it be as draining as most stretches of this nature can be? Either way, this stretch – and this series with the Blue Jays – feels a bit more important than one may’ve expected a couple of weeks ago.

The Last Time They Met

This represents the first rematch of the season for the Yankees, as these teams kicked-off the 2018 season together. They split the series two games apiece, with the Yankees outscoring the Blue Jays 17 to 15. A few notes:

Giancarlo Stanton had a hell of a debut in the season opener, going 3-for-5 with a couple of home runs and 4 RBI in the Yankees 6-1 victory. It feels much longer ago, doesn’t it?
Tyler Austin got in on the two home run game action in game three, when he took Marco Estrada deep twice.
Aaron Judge made his first (and only to-date) start in center in that third game, picking up one putout on one chance. By Baseball-Reference’s all-encompassing fielding metric, his performance was good for -131 runs of value over 1200 innings.
Tyler Clippard earned the win for the Blue Jays in game four. I think that was the most upsetting part of the entire series.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales are both on the disabled list, but will be eligible to return during this series. The former’s timetable remains up in the air, though. Troy Tulowitzki is still out due to surgery to remove bone spurs from both feet, and isn’t likely to be back until June.

Their Story So Far

The Blue Jays are 12-5 with a plus-38 run differential, and are currently on a four-game winning streak. They are one of many teams that have enjoyed an extended break, as they had back-to-back-to-back postponements from Saturday through Monday. And that last game was in the Rogers Centre, which had rain and snow issues despite the roof being closed. It really seems like Mother Nature isn’t ready for baseball just yet.

Interestingly enough, former Yankees Curtis Granderson (167 wRC+) and Yangervis Solarte (168 wRC+) have led the way for the Blue Jays offense in the early goings. Though, to be fair, their offense has been fairly stout overall.

The Lineup We Might See

Injuries to Donaldson and Morales have forced manager John Gibbons to be somewhat creative with his lineups, but it has worked out well enough so far. He employs a strict platoon in the leadoff slot, so we’ll probably see this deployment against CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery:

Steve Pearce, DH
Teoscar Hernandez, LF
Justin Smoak, 1B
Yangervis Solarte, 3B
Russell Martin, C
Kevin Pillar, CF
Aledmys Diaz, SS
Randal Grichuk, RF
Devon Travis, 2B

And we’ll see Curtis Granderson leading off against Sonny Gray and Luis Severino.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (6:35 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez

The Yankees hit Sanchez pretty hard in the second game of the season, scoring 4 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks in 5.2 IP. His run prevention numbers improved in two subsequent starts, and he was less hittable – but he has issued 11 walks in 19.2 IP overall, and his velocity dropped by over 2 MPH in his last start. He only threw 36 IP last year, so it’s not surprising to see him struggle a bit out of the gate, but the dip in velocity bears watching.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 4/10) – 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 4 K

Friday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Marco Estrada

Estrada has been dealing with back spasms since the season began, and had to have his second start pushed back a few days as a result. There’s no indication that he’ll head to the disabled list just yet, but he didn’t look good his last time out and he’s coming off of the worst full season of his career. None of that stopped him from picking up the win against the Yankees on March 31, though, and he was dominant against the Rangers on April 6.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 4/11) – 4.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 5 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

Stroman has struggled mightily in his first three outings. He has a 7.98 ERA heading into this start, and he has allowed 28 baserunners (18 hits and 10 walks) in 14.2 IP. The Yankees scored 4 runs in 5 innings against Stroman earlier this season, in what was his best start thus far.

Last outing (vs. CLE on 4/13) – 5.0 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Jaime Garcia

The Yankees missed Garcia in their first meeting with the Blue Jays, as he’s serving as the team’s fifth starter. And he’s essentially been the prototypical fifth starter thus far, going at least 5 innings in each start, and allowing no more than 3 runs in any outing.

Last outing (vs. KCR on 4/17) – 5.0 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K

The Bullpen

Toronto’s bullpen has been stellar so far, pitching to a 2.22 ERA in 56.2 IP. The group has 56 strikeouts against just 12 walks so far, and ranks third in the majors in WPA. Closer Roberto Osuna is a perfect 5-for-5 in save opportunities, and has yet to surrender a walk or run in 8.1 IP. Ryan Tepera has been serving as the team’s fireman, and has done quite well; that last bit can be said about most everyone, though, as Aaron Loup is the only reliever with an ERA above 2.89.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Kevin Pillar’s defense in center is a sight to behold, and is a default ‘must watch’ for any game involving the Blue Jays. The potential to see as many as six former Yankees in a game on Sunday is kind of intriguing, too.

4/16 to 4/17 Season Preview: Miami Marlins

April 16, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The Yankees were expected to have something of an easy weekend, as they headed to Detroit to face the tanking Tigers. A hard-fought victory on Friday cleansed the palate of the bad taste of the Red Sox series (at least to an extent), and then the Yankees were quite literally able to take the weekend off, as freezing rain postponed the second and third games of the series. Up next on the docket: the Marlins.

The Last Time They Met

It has been nearly three years since these teams squared-off, the last time being a four-game home and home series in June of 2015. The series was split right down the middle, with both teams winning their home games. A couple of notes:

Giancarlo Stanton enjoyed facing the Yankees pitching staff, going 5-of-15 with 2 HR and 4 RBI in the series. And one of those two home runs was his first in Yankee Stadium.
The Marlins roster is, unsurprisingly, completely different nowadays. Only three of their starting position players from that series remain in the organization, in J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, and Derek Dietrich. Interestingly enough, that makes their lineup more recognizable than the Yankees – Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius are the only position players from that series that are still with the team.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information on the series.

Injury Report

The willingly depleted Marlins are further hindered by injuries, with Wei-Yin Chen, Garrett Cooper, Martin Prado, J.T. Realmuto, and Dan Straily all on the disabled list. That’s two starting pitchers, two starting position players, and a bench player sidelined for the time being, for what it’s worth. Though, both Realmuto and Straily could be back as early as this week (with the former a possibility for this series).

Their Story So Far

Miami is 4-11 (with a -35 run differential), which is good for the fourth-worst record in the game. They opened the season with a surprising four-game split with the Cubs, and followed that up by dropping nine of their next eleven. And that stretch includes a humiliating 20-1 loss at the hands of the Phillies. None of this is particularly surprising, though, given that the Marlins traded four of their top-five players (by WAR) this off-season, and the fifth has yet to play a game due to a back injury. FiveThirtyEight pegged the Marlins as the worst team in baseball heading into 2018, predicting a 67-95 record, and they’re well on their way to that manner of futility.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Don Mattingly has changed his lineup around quite a bit in this young season, with the only real consistency being Starlin Castro’s presence in the third slot. If their last week or so is any indication of what to expect, we might see something like this:

Derek Dietrich, LF
Miguel Rojas, SS
Starlin Castro, 2B
Justin Bour, 1B
Brian Anderson, 3B
Cameron Maybin, DH
J.B. Shuck, RF
Lewis Brinson, CF
Chad Wallach or Bryan Holaday, C

If Realmuto returns, I expect him to DH and hit somewhere in the first five slots in the lineup.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (6:35 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Caleb Smith

It’s only three starts, but Smith has one of the more interesting pitching lines in baseball thus far. Through 13.1 IP he has a 31.2% strikeout rate, 16.4% walk rate, and a 28.1% groundball rate, which all contribute to his 4.73 ERA (77 ERA+). One assumes that this cannot continue but, given the Marlins depth (or lack therefor), there’s a good chance that we’ll find out in time. It’s worth noting that he has struck out better than a batter per inning in each start, so that isn’t buoyed by one lights out performance

Smith is a three-pitch guy featuring a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, and a low-80s slider. He throws that slider about a third of the time, and batters are hitting just .087 against it in 2018.

Last outing (vs. NYM on 4/10) – 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 7 K

Tuesday (6:35 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Jarlin Garcia

Garcia pitched exclusively out of the bullpen last season, tossing 53.1 innings in 68 appearances. He was frequently used as a LOOGY, but his stuff allowed him to face righties every so often, as well. Garcia came up as a starter, and the move to the bullpen was always supposed to be temporary, so it’s no surprise to see him in the rotation in 2018. And he was working on a no-hitter against the Mets before being pulled because Mattingly felt he was laboring, so the early returns have been quite good.

I can almost copy and paste Smith’s repertoire here, as Garcia throws a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, and a mid-80s slider. The extra ticks on the slider and the groundball tendencies make a world of difference, though.

Last outing (vs. NYM on 4/11) – 6.0 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 3 K

The Bullpen

The Marlins bullpen has struggled through fifteen games, with a 4.71 ERA in 70.2 IP. Closer Brad Ziegler has an 8.10 ERA, and has allowed at least one run in three of his six appearances. And, going a step further, he has yet to throw a one-two-three inning. They have three additional relievers with at least 5.0 IP and an ERA above 6, too. Set-up man Kyle Barraclough is next in-line to close, and has been solid thus far, as has former Red Sock Junichi Tazawa.

Yankees Connection

Where should I start?

The Marlins CEO is Derek Jeter who will, unfortunately, not be making the trip to Yankee Stadium. He’s joined in the front office by Vice President of Player Development and Scouting Gary Denbo, who filled the same role for the Yankees as recently as last Fall. And, of course, there’s Donnie Baseball in the dugout.

On the player’s side there’s Starlin Castro, Caleb Smith (lest we forget his 7.71 ERA in 18.2 IP with the Yankees last year), and Tyler Cloyd (who pitched at SWB in 2016), as well as the currently injured Martin Prado and Garrett Cooper.

Who (Or What) To Watch

I’m interested to see how (former?) best friends Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro interact in the opportunity arises, as they were always a great deal of fun together in the Bronx. And, on a more comical note, I’m curious to see how the Yankees announcers handle discussing a lineup and pitching staff full of rookies and journeymen.

If you’re looking for player to watch on the Marlins, Lewis Brinson might be the best bet. He’s struggled mightily thus far, but he’s one of the toolsiest young players in the majors, and was a consensus top-30 prospect for each of the last three years.

4/13 to 4/15 Series Preview: Detroit Tigers

April 13, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

Miggy and Victor. Do you recognize any other Tigers? (Gregory Shamus/Getty)

The Yankees dropped two of three in Boston and now complete their week-long road trip in Detroit, where they’ll face one of baseball’s many tanking franchises.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees went a disappointing 3-3 against the worst team in baseball last year despite all but one game in their season series coming after the All-Star break. They avoided Justin Verlander both times. In Detroit from Aug. 22-24, they lost two of three against some of the Tigers’ lesser starters.

Brawl!!! The last time the Yankees faced the Tigers, both benches cleared multiple times. Both managers were ejected, as were Alex Wilson, Dellin Betances, Tommy Kahnle, Austin Romine and Miguel Cabrera.
The brawl(s) produced some of the most memorable regular season moments from last year. Sanchez sucker punching Cabrera and earning a four-game suspension. David Robertson’s majestic sprint from the bullpen. Romine facing down Miggy and starting the first fight. Brett Gardner fighting and CC laughing at him. I hate brawls, but the CC laugh and Robertson sprint were all kinds of great.
The Yankees lost the brawl game, 10-6, to finish the series, but they won the first two games by a combined total of 23-6. Sanchez hit three of the Yankees’ six homers during the two blowouts.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post.

Injury Report

Nothing much to report here. Jordan Zimmermann had a line drive glance off his shoulder and into his face on Wednesday. Luckily, he was left with just a right jaw contusion while passing concussion protocol. Phew. It didn’t look great at the point of impact.

Their Story So Far

At 4-8, they’re right where they belong near the bottom of the AL Central. They’ve been swept by the Pirates and Indians, though they swept the White Sox. The team hasn’t hit, posting a team wRC+ of 69, second worst in baseball to the Indians. Their team batting line is .207/.291/.306 and they’ve only hit three home runs. The lineup isn’t too recognizable outside of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez.

Their bullpen is a lot of question marks. Their rotation has the second fewest strikeouts per nine and the smallest groundball rate. Thanks to a strong start from their veterans, they had the fourth best rotation ERA in baseball going into Thursday before Michael Fulmer was shelled. Now they’re 13th. Giving up six earned runs in three innings will do that.

Lineup We Might See

The Tigers have yet to face a lefty starter yet, so how Ron Gardenhire would adjust his lineup for a southpaw remains to be seen. Here’s how he’s likely to put together the lineup after OF Mikie Mahtook was optioned to Triple-A on Thursday:

1. CF Leonys Martin
2. 3B Jeimer Candelario
3. 1B Miguel Cabrera
4. RF Nick Castellanos
5. DH Victor Martinez
6. C James McCann
7. LF Victor Reyes
8. SS Jose Iglesias
9. 2B Dixon Machado

You may also see rookie Niko Goodrum taking a start at first, second or short. Ah Goodrum, just what you need to get through the Tigers season.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:10 PM EST): LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Mike Fiers
Mike Fiers joins the Tigers this season after spending the last 2.5 years at the back of the Astros’ rotation. He faced the Yankees twice last year, giving up a homer to Aaron Judge while dancing in and out of trouble over 9 2/3 innings. The 32-year-old starter was designated for assignment in December after being left off Houston’s postseason roster. He missed the first week of the season with a back injury but is now one very effective start into his tenure with the Tigers.

Fiers was a replacement level pitcher last year because his home run problem made a turn for the worse. 1.88 homers per nine innings worse. Coupled with a rising walk rate, he pitched to a 5.22 ERA, which was actually better than his 5.43 FIP. His fastball lives in the high 80s and he plays off of it with a low-80s changeup, a low-80s slider and a low-70s curveball. He was tied for the AL-lead with 13 hit batters in 2017 and led all of baseball with 17 wild pitches in 2016.

Last Outing (@ CHW on Apr. 8) – 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K

Saturday (1:10 PM EST): TBD vs. LHP Francisco Liriano
Another game, another castoff from the 2017 Houston Astros. Liriano has moved between the Pirates, Blue Jays and Astros over the last two seasons before landing in Detroit this season. Houston used him out of the bullpen after acquiring him at the deadline in 2017 and his walk and strikeout rates suffered in the pen over 14 1/3 innings. He got one out in Game 7 of the World Series and faced a total of 10 batters in the postseason.

The 34-year-old southpaw been pretty good over two starts with the Tigers, albeit against sputtering offenses with the Royals and Indians. He had a no-hitter through 4 2/3 on Monday in Cleveland. Lefties are hitting just 1-for-15 against him while RHBs are 6-for-27. He lives off his 93 mph sinker and 83 mph slider, working in an 85 mph changeup against righties. The slider has long been his best pitch, so expect a healthy dosage on Saturday afternoon.

Last Outing (@ CLE on Apr. 9) – 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Matt Boyd
Do you remember Matt Boyd? You remember Matt Boyd. Here’s why.

In the past, the 27-year-old lefty has gone to his low-90s/high 80s fastball/sinker about half the time and mixed in a low-80s slider, high 70s changeup and a low 70s curveball. Sanchez’s 493-foot homer last year came off a changeup that Boyd hung. This year, he’s worked in his slider as his primary secondary pitch and cut back on his sinker a bit. It’s worked in that he has a 1.38 ERA through 13 innings, though it seems to be more batted ball luck (.154 BABIP with a low HR/FB and IFFB rates) than skill (five strikeouts to go with one walk and one HBP).

Last Outing (@ CLE on Apr. 10) – 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR

The Bullpen

The Detroit bullpen is the Island of Misfit Toys this year, a mixture of failed starters and unproven relievers. The only real established relievers are closer (and former Yankee!) Shane Greene and 31-year-old Alex Wilson. The duo have given up eight runs (seven earned) in 12 1/3 innings. Welp.

23-year-old Joe Jimenez has been the primary setup man and has allowed five baserunners and struck out four in 6 1/3. Drew VerHagen has overcome some control issues to produce seven solid innings. Former Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf is the lefty-matchup reliever while fellow southpaw Daniel Norris is the long man.

The team got just 3 2/3 combined innings out of Zimmermann and Fulmer the last two days, so the bullpen has seen a lot of work. Chad Bell wore Thursday’s loss with four shutout innings out of the bullpen, so only Bell and Jimenez pitched yesterday.

Yankees Connection

The Yankee-related players are few and far between. On the 25-man roster, it’s only Greene, who the Yankees dealt to get MLB-shortstop WAR leader Didi Gregorius. On the 40-man, there’s Johnny Barbato of 2016 bullpen shuttle fame. That’s it. No one else on the roster and no one on the coaching staff.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

Here’s the question for the Yankees’ next five games: Can they take advantage of some bad opponents? The Tigers and Marlins are teams they should beat handily and this dip in opponent quality comes before perhaps their toughest stretch of the year.

That stretch will be 18 games in 18 days against the Blue Jays, Angels, Twins, Astros and Indians. Then they get a day off and three more games against the Red Sox. That’s 21 games against division favorites or the leading wild card competitors. You have to take advantage of the Tigers and Marlins before this rough schedule hits.

Lastly, Sunday is Jackie Robinson Day. It’s an important day for baseball to reflect on both Robinson’s impact and baseball’s less than stellar past. The No. 42 on everyone’s back is a good reminder.