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8/14 to 8/16 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

August 14, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Barring something statistically impossible happening, Tampa Bay will be the last .500 or better team that the Yankees face until they head to Oakland on September 3. That sounds like good news, right?

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited Tampa Bay three weeks ago, and dropped two out of three. Both of their losses came by one run, which will never not be frustrating. Some notes from the series:

The first game is probably the most notable, as it was the ‘lack of hustle‘ game for Gary Sanchez. He was, of course, placed on the disabled list the next day due to a re-aggravated groin injury, and has not played since.
Masahiro Tanaka was brilliant in the second game, tossing a complete game shutout and striking out 9. Only four Rays reached base, three via single and one by a walk. Tanaka threw first-pitch strikes to 22 of 29 batters, and had a 16-to-2 grounder-to-flyball ratio.
Miguel Andujar had two hits in each of the three games.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Jose De Leon is out for the season with Tommy John Surgery, and Daniel Robertson (thumb surgery) is probably done, too. Jake Faria, Wilmer Font, Vidal Nuno, and the newly acquired Tommy Pham are all out, as well, and none are likely to be back for this series.

Their Story So Far

The Rays are 60-58 with a +11 run differential, and are currently third in the AL East. They have an extremely outside shot of reaching the playoffs as a Wild Card team, as they currently sit ten-games back of the A’s, but it’s not terribly likely. And they sold at the trade deadline, sending Wilson Ramos to the Phillies, Chris Archer to the Pirates, and Jonny Venters to the Braves, so it’s not as though they’re making a push for that spot, either.

Regardless, the story of their season was locked-in long ago with their decision to utilize openers this season. It may’ve been a matter of necessity, given all of their injuries, but a few organizations are doing the same thing in the minors, so this might not be the last we’ve heard of it.

The Lineup We Might See

Tampa Bay’s lineup is constantly in a state of flux. They’ve used a minimum of eight different batters in every slot in the lineup, as manager Kevin Cash is constantly tinkering. They play match-ups and right the hot hand, which leads to a great deal of maneuvering. That being said, we’ll probably see something close to this:

Mallex Smith, RF – .296/.370/.415, 1 HR, 25 SB, 122 OPS+
Matt Duffy, 3B – .299/.352/.379, 4 HR, 8 SB, 107 OPS+
Jake Bauers, LF- .227/.336/.454, 9 HR, 4 SB, 120 OPS+
C.J. Cron, 1B – .247/.317/.469, 22 HR, 1 SB, 118 OPS+
Joey Wendle, 2B – .294/.345/.417, 6 HR, 8 SB, 114 OPS+
Ji-Man Choi, DH – .228/.294/.446, 5 HR, 0 SB, 101 OPS+
Kevin Kiermaier, CF – .178/.250/.294, 4 HR, 8 SB, 53 OPS+
Willy Adames, SS – .250/.297/.375, 5 HR, 5 SB, 88 OPS+
Jesus Sucre, C – .215/.257/.246, 0 HR, 1 SB, 44 OPS+

Michael Perez (153 OPS+ in 37 PA) will get a start or two behind the dish.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Hunter Wood

A right-handed rookie, Wood has a 3.91 ERA (3.87 FIP) in 25.1 IP this season, with lots of strikeouts (26.8%), walks (11.6%), and grounders (47.8%). This will be his seventh start (opening?) of the season; his season-high for pitches thus far is 45, which occurred on July 29. He pitched against the Yankees on July 23, tossing two innings and allowing one run.

Wood is a four-pitch guy, with a mid-90s four-seamer, high-80s cutter, mid-80s change-up, and a mid-70s curve.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 8/11) – 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K

Wednesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Cessa vs. TBA

If the Rays follow their rotation, this start should go to Blake Snell.

Snell missed a start or two with shoulder fatigue last month, and the Rays have been justifiably cautious as a result. He has thrown just 9 innings in his two starts since returning from the DL, throwing a combined 106 pitches. He left his last start after the fifth inning, despite being in the midst of a perfect game. Snell has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, pitching to a 2.18 ERA (183 ERA+) in 128.0 IP.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 8/10) – 5.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K

Thursday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. TBA

And this might be Ryne Stanek, who the Yankees are quite familiar with this season. Stanek has appeared in five games against the Yankees this year, pitching to the following line: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K. He’s been excellent this season on the whole, pitching to a 2.45 ERA (3.45 FIP) in 47.2 IP, with a 33.0% strikeout rate.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 8/12) – 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K

The Bullpen

The Rays bullpen has struggled in the second-half, likely owing to the fact that the group has worked the most innings in the majors by more than 100 IP over the next closest team – and that doesn’t include the inning or two per game that the openers go. They have a 4.68 ERA in 127.0 IP as a group since the break, and their home run, walk, and groundball rates have all trended in the wrong direction by significant margins.

Sergio Romo has emerged as the closer, with Jose Alvarado serving as the other late-innings option. Ryan Yarborough serves as the long reliever, so we’ll probably see him step in on one of the non-Snell days.

Who (Or What) To Watch

The Yankees are 6-6 against Tampa this year, despite having outscored them by 15 runs. The Rays have a habit of being incredibly annoying, so it bears watching just to see if the Yankees can take care of business against an inferior team at home. And Boston is facing a surprisingly strong Phillies team, so this could be an opportunity to gain a bit of ground.

8/9 to 8/12 Series Preview: Texas Rangers

August 9, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Tonight kicks off an eleven game homestand, eight of which are against teams that are comfortably below .500. This is a great opportunity for the Yankees to put some distance between themselves and the A’s, which would solicit a much needed sigh of relief. Seeing them take care of business against the rebuilding White Sox was great – but they have to continue to beat-up on the bad teams.

The Rangers are up first.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited Texas back in May, and they dropped two of three. Poor pitching was the issue back then, as the staff allowed seven home runs and 23 runs to the last-place Rangers. It wasn’t a great look. Some notes from the series:

The Yankees had won eight consecutive series heading into this match-up.
Gleyber Torres homered twice off of Bartolo Colon. Why is that interesting (aside from the fact that everything Torres does is interesting)? Torres was three months old when Colon made his major league debut.
Torres had a stellar series in general, going 5-for-12 with four runs scored, four home runs, and seven RBI. That’s good for a 1.878 OPS.
Eleven pitchers took the mound for the Rangers in the series. Four of them – Cole Hamels, Keone Kela, Jake Diekman, and Jesse Chavez – were traded in the days leading up to the deadline.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more points of interest.

Injury Report

The Rangers currently have a starter (Doug Fister), two relievers (Tony Barnette and Matt Bush), and an entire outfield (Delino DeShields, Nomar Mazara, and Ryan Rua) on the disabled list. There’s a chance that DeShields and Mazara could return during this series, but neither is a guarantee.

Their Story So Far

Texas is 51-65 with a -51 run differential, and are in the midst of a rebuild. Their 25-man roster currently has 10 players that are under the age of 25, and they’re one of the youngest teams in the majors – and that’s with Adrian Beltre (39) and Bartolo Colon (45) skewing the average age quite a bit. They’ve been allowing the kids to sink or swim all season, and they’ll continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

For what it’s worth, the Rangers are 9-3 in their last 12, with series victories over the Astros (a three-game sweep), Orioles, and Mariners. They’ve also been a .500-ish team since June 1, posting a 27-30 record, along with a +12 run differential.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Jeff Banister is flexible with his lineups, owing to the positional flexibility of Jurickson Profar (all four infield positions and left field), Joey Gallo (first and all three outfield spots) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (second, third, short, and catcher). He’s also a proponent of giving his position players regular rest. That being said, we’ll probably see something like this:

Shin-Soo Choo, DH – .270/.384/471, 20 HR, 3 SB, 124 OPS+
Rougned Odor, 2B – .273/.351/.484, 14 HR, 9 SB, 117 OPS+
Elvis Andrus, SS – .283/.332/.422, 4 HR, 4 SB, 97 OPS+
Adrian Beltre, 3B – .280/.336/.390, 6 HR, 0 SB, 91 OPS+
Jurickson Profar, 1B – .252/.338/.449, 6 HR, 0 SB, 105 OPS+
Joey Gallo, RF – .202/.314/.491, 31 HR, 3 SB, 107 OPS+
Robinson Chirinos, C – .223/.336/.447, 15 HR, 2 SB, 104 OPS+
Willie Calhoun, LF – .267/.303/.400, 1 HR, 0 SB, 83 OPS+
Carlos Tocci, CF – .190/.238/.241, 0 HR, 0 SB, 27 OPS+

Ronald Guzman (86 OPS+) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (93 OPS+) will both see a couple of starts, as well.

Jurado sporting some sick shades. (Jon Durr/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Ariel Jurado

The 22-year-old Jurado spent parts of three seasons in Double-A (including all of 2017), and made his big league debut back in May. It’s sort of strange that he has never pitched in Triple-A – especially when you consider that he’s thrown over 300 IP at Double-A – but here we are. He has a 4.02 ERA through three starts (15.2 IP), with great walk (7.8%) and grounder (50.0%) rates, and a complete inability to strike people out (10.9%). And that all tracks with his time in Double-A, where he posted a 14.8 K% and 5.0 BB%.

Jurado is a sinker-baller through and through, as nearly three-quarters of his offerings are his heavy low-90s sinker. He also throws a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s slider, a mid-80s change-up, and a high-70s curve.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 8/3) – 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K

Friday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Mike Minor

Minor was a promising young starter with the Braves in the first-half of this decade, but multiple shoulder injuries and surgery kept him from pitching in 2015 and 2016. He came back as a reliever with the Royals last year and was excellent, pitching to a 2.55 ERA with great peripherals in 77.2 IP. The Rangers signed him to a three-year deal this off-season and stuck him back in the rotation, and the results have been less than stellar. Minor has a 4.53 ERA (4.40 FIP) in 117.1 IP, with below-average strikeout and groundball rates. He’s managed to stay healthy with the increased workload, though.

Minor is a four-pitch guy, with a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s slider (his best offspeed pitch), a mid-80s change-up, and a low-80s curve.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 8/4) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 6 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Drew Hutchison

You may remember Hutchison for his three-plus seasons in Toronto – he made nine starts against the Yankees, and posted a 3.78 ERA in 50.0 IP. He spent all of 2017 in the minors, though, and sports a career 5.01 ERA in 442.0 IP. He was DFA’d by the Phillies earlier in the season, picked up by the Dodgers, and opted out of his contract with them on August 1. He was picked up by the Rangers shortly thereafter, and has made one disastrous start so far.

Hutchison is a three-pitch pitcher, utilizing a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s slider, and a mid-80s change-up. He used to throw a sinker, as well, but he’s rarely using it nowadays.

Last outing (vs. BAL on 8/5) – 3.0 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 0 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Martin Perez

Perez was a legitimate top prospect half a dozen years ago, but injuries and inconsistency have kept him from reaching his ceiling. He’s still only 27, so there’s still time – but he also has a 4.56 ERA (4.41 FIP) in 728.2 IP, and has struggled mightily in 2018 (6.15 ERA/6.04 FIP). Do you remember when prospect folk used to debate Manny Banuelos vs. Martin Perez? Because I do.

Perez is a sinkerballer, with more than half of his pitches being his low-90s sinker. He also mixes in a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, a mid-80s slider, and a big, high-70s curve.

Last outing (vs. SEA on 8/6) – 7.0 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 3 K

The Bullpen

The Rangers dealt their closer (the aforementioned Kela) to the Pirates at the deadline, and former closer Matt Bush is on the DL. Jose Leclerc (2.16 ERA, 35.2 K%) has taken over as the closer, and he’s been quite good all season. It’s a little bit of a mess behind him, though, as the team works around injuries and trades to sort out the middle innings. Alex Claudio (5.10 ERA) and Chris Martin (4.00 ERA) are usually in the mix.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Adrian Beltre is one of my favorite players, and he’s worth watching wherever he is, be it the field, the bench, or the batter’s box. I’m also intrigued by the resurgent Rougned Odor, who is walking in 8.4% of his PA, against a previous career-best of 4.9%.

In a general sense, though, I’m just looking for the Yankees to continue to take care of business.

8/6 to 8/8 Series Preview: Chicago White Sox

August 6, 2018 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

Who do I have to pay for the White Sox to wear these unis every game? (David Banks/Getty Images)

After a demoralizing series with the Red Sox, the Yankees get their first taste of the lackluster White Sox this season. They’re the only AL team the Yankees have not yet played.

The Last Time They Met

The Bombers traveled to Chicago for a four-game set and had a disappointing split from June 26-29, 2017.

Jordan Montgomery and Masahiro Tanaka picked up wins in Games 1 and 3 of the series, backed by homers from Tyler Austin, Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius.
In Game 2, Luis Severino went toe-to-toe with Jose Quintana and the Yankees grabbed a 3-1 lead off Tommy Kahnle. However, Domingo German, Tyler Clippard and Dellin Betances blew it in a walk-off loss.
Game 4 was a lackluster 4-3 loss lowlighted by Dustin Fowler’s knee injury in what ended up being his only appearance as a Yankee.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that series.

Injury Report

Yankees nemesis Miguel Gonzalez is out for the year with right shoulder surgery while reliever Nate Jones has a muscle strain in his throwing arm. Danny Farquhar is recovering from his brain hemorrhage in April.

Their Story So Far

At 41-70, the White Sox are surprisingly not in last place in the American League Central, though that’s simply because the Royals are historically bad. The White Sox are in the midst of a rebuild and surely look like it. They’re in the bottom 10 in WAR on offense and in the starting rotation, though their bullpen is in the middle of the pack.

Lineup We Might See

1. 2B Yoan Moncada (.222/.305/.400, 93 wRC+)
2. 3B Yolmer Sanchez (.244/.301/.383, 87 wRC+)
3. 1B Jose Abreu (.270/.331/.485, 119 wRC+)
4. DH Daniel Palka (.236/.281/.504, 109 wRC+)
5. RF Avisail Garcia (.269/.290/.523, 117 wRC+)
6. LF Nicky Delmonico (.232/.333/.377, 100 wRC+)
7. CF Leury Garcia (.280/.310/.394, 92 wRC+)
8. SS Tim Anderson (.246/.294/.405, 89 wRC+)
9. C Omar Narvaez (.282/.356/.425, 116 wRC+)

Matt Davidson will likely get the start at DH against CC Sabathia while Adam Engel often gets starts in center.

Lucas Giolito is really tall, folks. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (8:10 PM ET): RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Dylan Covey
Covey is a second-year righty who, despite below-replacement-level performance, has received the chance to stick in the rotation for much of the season. He enters Monday with a 5.57 ERA (4.64 FIP) and a 10 percent walk rate. After throwing 8 1/3 innings of shutout ball three starts ago, he’s coming off two starts where he failed to get through five and allowed 6-7 runs.

Covey throws in the low-to-mid 90s and attacks with his sinking fastball that he throws 5/8ths of the time. He also works in a high-80s slider, mid-80s changeup and low-80s curveball. The sinker has been his best pitch.

Last Outing (vs. KC on Aug. 1) – 4.1 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

Tuesday (8:10 PM ET: LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez
Lopez is coming off one of his best starts of the season as he held a lackluster Royals lineup to two runs over seven innings. However, that came after three starts in which he allowed a combined eight home runs, 18 runs and eight walks over 17 innings. That’s why after a strong start to the year, his ERA is up to 4.47 with a 5.17 FIP over 129 innings.

Like Covey, Lopez has a high walk rate (10.2 percent). He goes at hitters with his mid-90s fastball 60 percent of the time while relying on his slider and changeup as his main offspeed pitches.

Last Outing (vs. KC on Aug. 2) – 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K

Wednesday (8:10 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Lucas Giolito
If you’re sensing a trend with these young White Sox starters, it’s that they are wild. Giolito is the wildest of them all. He leads AL pitchers with 68 walks issued and 12 HBPs. That recipe is why he has a 5.97 ERA (5.92 FIP) over 120 2/3 innings. He also has allowed 19 homers and only struck out 77. Yikes.

The 6-foot-6 righty sits in the low 90s and works in a four-seam fastball and a sinker. He also contains a mid-80s slider, low-80s changeup and high-70s curveball in his arsenal.

Last Outing (@ TB on Aug. 3) – 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K

The Bullpen

After trading Joakim Soria, the team doesn’t have a set closer with three different pitchers getting saves the last four games. Lefty Luis Avilan has been solid recently while fellow lefties Hector Santiago and Jace Fry get plenty of work. Juan Minaya, Jeanmar Gomez and Thyago Vieira are some of the main right-handers while former Rays lefty Xavier Cedeno has cooled off after a strong start to his season.

Yankees Connection

Danny Farquhar, who is on the DL, was one of two players the Yankees traded for Ichiro. MiLB OF Trayce Thompson was in the Yankees’ system for all of two days this year. Former NYY prospect Ian Clarkin is on the 40-man roster.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

Walks. There’s a chance these games take a while if the Yankees show patience and let this pitching staff beat itself.
Rookie Daniel Palka is a powerhouse with 17 homers in 270 plate appearances. Let’s see if he can have the same success vs. the Bombers.

8/2 to 8/5 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

August 2, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

We interrupt this tour of the worst teams in the American League to bring you this match-up between the two best teams in baseball. First place is not quite on the line, unfortunately, as the Red Sox enter the series with a 5.5 game lead – but the Yankees have a 5-4 advantage in head-to-head play thus far, and the importance of these four games cannot be overstated. I would’ve felt a whole lot better about this series if it wasn’t for yesterday’s infuriating loss to the Orioles, though.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Red Sox for a three-game set to close out June and open July, walking away with a couple of wins. All three games were blowouts, with the closest one being the Yankees 8-1 victory in the first game. Some notes:

CC Sabathia had one of his best starts of the season in that first game, pitching to the following line: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K. He went through the lineup four times, and retired the last six batters that he faced in order.
Chris Sale shutdown the Yankees offense in the second game (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K), and I’m really happy that he’s not starting in this series.
The Yankees hit too many home runs in this series, socking ten dingers in total. The culprits: Aaron Hicks (three times, all in the third game), Greg Bird (twice), Aaron Judge (twice), Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, and Kyle Higashioka.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Rafael Devers, Dustin Pedroia, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, Carson Smith, Christian Vazquez, and Steven Wright are all on the disabled list, and none will be back for this series. Pedroia and Smith are almost certainly done for the season, too. Xander Bogaerts is also banged-up, but he’s not expected to land on the DL.

Their Story So Far

The Red Sox are an MLB-best 75-34 with a +176 run differential; and they’re 19-6 with a +57 run differential since dropping those two games to the Yankees. They also added Nate Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler in the lead-up to the trade deadline, so they’re arguably a bit better now than they were at the beginning of July. And that’s saying something.

If you’re looking for kinks in the armor, you can scroll back up a bit, as the team simply isn’t all that healthy right now.

The Lineup We Might See

Assuming that Bogaerts is able to play, we’ll probably see something like this:

Mookie Betts, RF – .338/.422/.648, 25 HR, 20 SB, 181 OPS+
Andrew Benintendi, LF – .296/.378/.503, 14 HR, 19 SB, 134 OPS+
J.D. Martinez, DH – .323/.391/.638, 32 HR, 3 SB, 169 OPS+
Mitch Moreland, 1B – .264/.337/.475, 12 HR, 1 SB, 114 OPS+
Xander Bogaerts, SS – .275/.342/.513, 15 HR, 2 SB, 125 OPS+
Ian Kinsler, 2B – .240/.304/.404, 13 HR, 9 SB, 94 OPS+
Eduardo Nunez, 3B – .259/.288/.372, 6 HR, 5 SB, 76 OPS+
Sandy Leon, C – .220/.269/.335, 4 HR, 1 SB, 61 OPS+
Jackie Bradley Jr., CF – .215/.300/.363, 8 HR, 11 SB, 77 OPS+

Steve Pearce (140 OPS+) might get the start at first against CC Sabathia (and J.A. Happ, if he’s able to start), and Blake Swihart (65 OPS+) will start a game or two at catcher. We’ll probably see Brock Holt (96 OPS+) get some action at third base, too.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:10 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Brian Johnson

Johnson opened the season in the rotation due to injuries, transitioned to the bullpen after just one start, and then moved back to the rotation at the end of June due to, you guessed it, injuries. The 27-year-old has been quite good as a starter this year, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in six starts (as opposed to a 5.10 ERA in 30 innings out of the bullpen). His peripherals aren’t great, which suggests that there’s regression incoming, but he’s filled-in admirably thus far.

It might not be a stretch to call Johnson a junkballer. He’s basically a three-pitch guy, with a high-80s four-seamer, a high-70s slider, and a mid-70s curveball, but he’ll mix-in a mid-80s sinker and low-80s change every so often.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/26) – 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K

Friday (7:10 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Rick Porcello

Porcello is having a fairly typical Porcello season. He’s taken all of his turns in the rotation, he’s eating innings (131.2 IP), limiting walks (5.9%), striking out batters at an average rate (22.4%), and his 4.03 ERA is right around league-average (109 ERA+). And this will be his third start against the Yankees this year – the first was a 7 scoreless innings effort, and the second was a 5.1 IP, 5 run loss.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/28) – 5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 5 K

Saturday (4:05 PM EST): LHP J.A. Happ vs. RHP Nate Eovaldi

The Red Sox acquired Eovaldi from the Rays last week, in exchange for LHP Jalen Beeks (which is not a made-up name). He was decent with the Rays in his first season back from Tommy John Surgery, pitching to a 4.26 ERA (94 ERA+) in 10 starts, with strong peripherals, and was one of the best available arms on the market. It’s a pretty good story, even though he shipped up to Boston.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/29) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K

Sunday (8:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP David Price

Price vs. the Yankees in 2018: 4.1 IP, 24.92 ERA (not a typo)

Price vs. everyone else in 2018: 118.0 IP, 3.20 ERA

Last outing (vs. PHI on 7/30) – 8.0 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K

The Bullpen

Craig Kimbrel remains one of the best closers in the game, pitching to a 2.20 ERA with an excellent 36.6% strikeout rate in 45.0 IP. Matt Barnes (2.30 ERA, 37.6 K%) and Hector Velazquez (2.55 ERA) have been their best middle relievers to-date, and 30-year-old rookie Ryan Brasier (0.90 ERA in 10 IP) has been excellent since his call-up three weeks ago.

Joe Kelly may be the bullpen’s biggest issue right now. He sports an 8.35 ERA since the beginning of June, and manager Alex Cora seems hesitant to use him in higher-leverage situations as a result. They have some depth, but the bullpen looks quite a bit thinner without Kelly serving as a quality bridge to Kimbrel.

Who (Or What) To Watch

The implications of this series are huge, even if the division lead isn’t quite at stake this weekend. One of these teams is going to walk away with a head-to-head advantage, and that’s a big deal. And the fact that neither team is at full strength makes this a slightly more interesting match-up, for me.

7/31 to 8/1 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

July 31, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The Yankees picked up their first series victory in three weeks against the Royals, and they’ll look to continue that streak against the other basement dweller in the American League: the Baltimore Orioles.

The Last Time They Met

These teams split a four-game set a few weeks ago, with both of the Yankees wins coming in the form of blowouts (10-2 and 9-0), and the Orioles picking up two one-run victories. Some notes from the series:

Greg Bird’s re-emergence began in earnest in this series, when he went 3-for-11 with two home runs, nine RBI, and a couple of walks. His OPS jumped forty points by the end of the series, and has risen another thirty since then.
Austin Romine had a big series, as well, going 4-for-12 with a pair of home runs.
Sonny Gray had one of his best starts in pinstripes in the final game of the series, tossing six scoreless innings, and allowing just three hits and a walk while striking out eight.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information about the series.

Their Story So Far

The Orioles are, by winning percentage, the worst team in the majors. They’re entering this series at 32-74, and, thanks to deals that sent Manny Machado to the Dodgers, Zach Britton here, and Brad Brach to the Braves, they’re probably a bit worse than that record suggests. Though, they did just take three of four from the Rays by a combined score of 40 to 16, and they’re 5-5 against the Yankees – you can’t predict baseball, as they say.

Injury Report

Relievers Richard Bleier and Darren O’Day are done for the season, and outfielder Craig Gentry is out until sometime in August with a rib fracture. The Orioles are relatively healthy otherwise.

The Lineup We Might See

This isn’t going to be pretty, you guys. Though, Jonathan Schoop is batting .349 with 7 HR and 15 RBI since the Machado trade…

Tim Beckham, SS – .224/.285/.333, 4 HR, 1 SB, 71 OPS+
Jonathan Schoop, 2B – .244/.273/.447, 17 HR, 0 SB, 95 OPS+
Adam Jones, CF – .285/.312/.434, 11 HR, 2 SB, 104 OPS+
Mark Trumbo, DH – .252/.312/.430, 12 HR, 0 SB, 103 OPS+
Chris Davis, 1B – .159/.245/.306, 13 HR, 2 SB, 52 OPS+
Trey Mancini, LF – .229/.300/.375, 13 HR, 0 SB, 86 OPS+
Danny Valencia, 3B – .268/.321/.423, 9 HR, 1 SB, 104 OPS+
Joey Rickard, RF – .223/.293/.413, 6 HR, 1 SB, 93 OPS+
Caleb Joseph, C – .230/.266/.360, 2 HR, 1 SB, 72 OPS+

Cobb, featuring an 80-grade pitch-face. (Greg Fiume/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Yefry Ramirez

Ramirez started against the Yankees back on July 9. It was the third start of his young career, and it didn’t go so well – he went four innings, and allowed four runs on nine hits and two walks. Despite that, Ramirez has been mostly effective for the Orioles since being called-up for good a month ago, pitching to a 3.49 ERA (122 ERA+) in 28.1 IP.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 7/24) – 5.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 6 K

Wednesday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Alex Cobb

Cobb has been something of an unmitigated disaster for the Orioles thus far, with a 6.08 ERA (67 ERA+) in 103.2 IP. He does have the built-in excuse of a late start to the season, given that he didn’t sign until March 21 – but he has yet to put together a stretch of more than two solid starts in a row. And there’s nothing in his velocity profile that indicates that he’s not at one-hundred percent, either. Though, he has stopped striking people out, with a career-low 14.8% strikeout rate.

Cobb is a four-pitch guy, with a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s splitter, and a low-80s curve.

Last outing (vs. BOS on 7/26) – 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 2 K

The Bullpen

Heading into this season, the Orioles top relievers were almost certainly Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Richard Bleier, and Darren O’Day … and the first two are now playing for other teams, while the latter two are out for the season. Mychal Givens (4.78 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 4.1 BB/9) is slated to take over as closer, with Miguel Castro (3.26 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 5.5 BB/9) next in-line. Rookie Paul Fry (1.38 ERA in 13.0 IP) has been gaining more and more trust from Buck Showalter, as well.

The bullpen should be well-rested, though, thanks to a light weekend (4.0 IP between Saturday and Sunday) and Monday’s day off.

Who (Or What) To Watch

As was the case with the Royals, this is a bad team. And their most watchable player of the last several years – Machado – is now on the West Coast. As a result, the most interesting aspect of this series will be the Yankees ability (or lack thereof, as has been the case to-date) to beat-up on the basement-dwellers.

7/26 to 7/29 Series Preview: Kansas City Royals

July 26, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

If the Yankees are going to start making moves in the division, they’re going to have to start beating up on bad teams. They’re 8-8 against the Orioles, Royals, and Rangers – the three worst teams in the American League – heading into this series, which isn’t going to cut it. But with ten of their next seventeen games coming against those teams, they have an opportunity to make up for lost ground.

The Royals are up first.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited Kansas City for a three-game set back in May, taking two of three. They outscored the Royals 20-9 in doing so, with contributions from most everyone that played in the series. Some notes:

Aaron Hicks hit an inside-the-park home run in the second game – his second of the season. It was the product of shaky defense by the Royals and hustle by Hicks, and it wasn’t even close. Check it out:

Sonny Gray had one of the best starts of his Yankees career in the third game, tossing 8 innings and allowing just four hits, one run, and one walk, while striking out 5. He threw first pitch strikes to 22 of 29 batters faced, and kept the ball on the ground, posting a 57.1% groundball rate.
The Yankees hit nine home runs in the series – Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez (twice), Giancarlo Stanton, Tyler Austin (twice), Miguel Andujar, and Austin Romine all went deep. And, this, in one of the least homer-friendly parks in baseball.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more information.

Injury Report

The Royals have three starting pitchers (Jesse Hahn, Ian Kennedy, and Eric Skoglund), a reliever (Blaine Boyer), a utility infielder (Cheslor Cuthbert), and their best hitter (Jorge Soler) on the disabled list. None are expected back in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

Kansas City is 31-70 with a -192 run differential; for those of you keeping score at home, that’s the second-worst record in baseball (only Baltimore is worse) and the worst run differential by a comfortable margin. They’ve scored the fewest runs in baseball and allowed the most, and that’s not a great recipe for success. They’re bad in just about every way that a team can be bad.

The Lineup We Might See

Trades, promotions, demotions, and poor performances have forced Ned Yost to tinker with his lineup quite a bit this year. He seems to have settled on something along these lines of late, though:

Whit Merrifield, 2B – .300/.369/.426, 5 HR, 19 SB
Rosell Herrera, RF – .265/.298/.357, 0 HR, 1 SB
Mike Moustakas, 3B – .249/.310/.468, 20 HR, 3 SB
Salvador Perez, C – .227/.263/.412, 15 HR, 1 SB
Lucas Duda, 1B – .247/.315/.405, 8 HR, 0 SB
Jorge Bonifacio, DH – .236/.329/.403, 1 HR, 0 SB
Alex Gordon, LF – .236/.312/.339, 6 HR, 4 SB
Brian Goodwin, CF – .229/.337/.371, 3 HR, 3 SB
Alcides Escobar, SS – .203/.253/.275, 3 HR, 5 SB

Adalberto Mondesi might get a start or two at either second or short, and Hunter Dozier should see time at first and/or third (most likely starting against Sabathia in place of Duda or Moustakas).

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Jakob Junis

Junis started against the Yankees back on May 18, and was effective in the Royals victory. He tossed 5.1 IP, allowing 7 hits (all singles), 2 runs, and a walk, and struck out 3. Junis looked quite good overall through the beginning of June, posting a 3.62 ERA in his first 12 starts, with good strikeout (8.6 K/9) and walk (2.2 BB/9) rates. The wheels have fell off a bit since then, however, and he has an 8.42 ERA (8.00 FIP) in his last six starts.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/21) – 4.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Friday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Brad Keller

Keller was a Rule 5 pick by the Royals over the off-season, after spending the first five seasons of his professional career in Arizona. He made the jump from Double-A to the majors this year, pitching out of the bullpen until late May. He transitioned to the rotation due to injuries to several starters, and has made nine starts so far. He has a 3.75 ERA and 3.57 FIP in those starts, which is good, as is his 54.8% groundball rate; his strikeout (5.8 K/9) and walk (4.1 BB/9) rates leave a great deal to be desired, though.

Keller – who will be celebrating his 23rd birthday on Friday – throws four pitches: a mid-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a high-80s change-up, and a mid-80s slider.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/22) – 7.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 8 K

Saturday (1:00 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Heath Fillmyer

The 24-year-old Fillmyer has served as the team’s long-reliever/swingman since making his big-league debut a month ago, and sports a shiny 2.82 ERA (153 ERA+) in 22.1 IP. And, like Keller, he has done so with lots of grounders (59.7%), and subpar strikeout (5.2 per 9) and walk (4.0 per nine) rates.

Fillmyer is primarily a three-pitch guy, with a low-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s change-up, and a mid-80s slider. He’ll also mix-in a sinker and a curve, but we’re talking one or two per game.

Last outing (vs. DET on 7/23) – 6.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST: RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Burch Smith

Smith, much like Keller, opened the season in the bullpen, and transitioned to the rotation; he was also a Rule 5 pick, out of the Rays organization. He has only made three starts, though, and was barely stretched out for the first two. It’s been a long journey to the majors for Smith, who missed all of 2015 and 2016 as a result of Tommy John surgery.

Smith is a three-pitch pitcher, featuring a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a low-80s change-up, and a big-time curveball in the high-70s. His curve is a true swing-and-miss offering.

Last outing (vs. DET on 7/24) – 6.1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K

The Bullpen

A few Royals bullpen rankings presented with limited commentary:

25th in BB/9
26th in WPA
30th in ERA
30th in FIP
30th in K/9

And that’s with the stellar numbers of the since-traded Kelvin Herrera (1.05 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 0.7 BB/9) factored in. This is the worst bullpen in the majors, and it’s not particularly close.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Kansas City is the unfortunately confluence of bad and boring, with little in the way of standout players on either side of the ball. Merrifield is an exciting player, and Smith’s curveball is a thing of beauty. Otherwise, the story of this series will be dependent upon whether the Yankees can beat up on a bad team. That, and the strong likelihood that Zach Britton will make his Yankees debut.

7/23 to 7/25 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

July 23, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The most recent entry into the Subway Series was incredibly frustrating, with the Yankees taking a loss on Friday, attempting to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on Saturday, and seeing yet another rain-out on Sunday. And now they will head to everyone’s favorite ballpark, Tropicana Field, for a three-game set against the surprisingly competent Rays.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees were swept in Tampa Bay back in June, with two of the three losses coming by one run. It wasn’t a fun series, to say the least. Some notes:

Game one ranks among the most boring games of the season, as a 2-1 loss with precious little in the way of excitement. Well, with the exception of this amazing catch by Giancarlo Stanton:

Game two was even more uneventful, at least from the Yankees perspective, as they were shutout, 4-0. They only had six base-runners all game, and just one after the six inning (via a walk).
Giancarlo Stanton did his best to prevent a sweep, going 5-for-5 with two doubles and a home run in the final game of the series. Unfortunately, the Yankees would drop the game in extra innings, resulting in their first three-game losing streak of 2018. Oh, and Gary Sanchez was injured, too. Not a great series.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more sad facts.

Injury Report

Pitchers Jose De Leon, Jake Faria, Wilmer Font, Vidal Nuno, Chaz Roe, and Jonny Venters are all on the disabled list, and none will be back for this series. Catcher Wilson Ramos is out, as well. Adeiny Hechavarria and Kevin Kiermaier are both banged-up, but neither is expected to hit the DL.

Their Story So Far

The Rays are 50-49 with a +20 run differential, which is a veritable about-face from where they were heading into their last series. They’re 16-9 with a +37 run differential since then, and have looked quite good overall. Though, they did bookend the All-Star break with series losses to the lowly Twins and Marlins, so the magic might be wearing out.

And, yes, they’re still going with their “openers” in some games.

The Lineup We Might See

I’ll operate under the assumption that both Kiermaier and Hechavarria are available:

Kevin Kiermaier, CF – .183/.259/.289, 2 HR, 6 SB, 56 OPS+
Matt Duffy, 3B – .314/.369/.410, 4 HR, 7 SB, 121 OPS+
Jake Bauers, LF – .243/.351/.472, 5 HR, 2 SB, 131 OPS+
C.J. Cron, 1B – .254/.328/.472, 19 HR, 1 SB, 123 OPS+
Ji-Man Choi, DH – .212/.255/.442, 3 HR, 0 SB, 86 OPS+
Carlos Gomez, RF – .221/.307/.363, 8 HR, 7 SB, 89 OPS+
Joey Wendle, 2B – .281/.328/.402, 5 HR, 7 SB, 106 OPS+
Willy Adames, SS – .209/.263/.330, 3 HR, 1 SB, 67 OPS+
Adam Moore, C – .000/.000/.000, 0 HR, 0 SB, -100 OPS+

Jesus Sucre (44 OPS+) should get a start or two behind the dish, Hechavarria (82 OPS+) will see some time at short, Mallex Smith (113 OPS+) will pop-up in the outfield, and Daniel Robertson (121 OPS+) plays almost everywhere.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:10 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Hunter Wood

This will be Wood’s second career start – or “start” – and his tenth big-league appearance. He was a 29th-round draft pick by the Rays back in 2013, and spent the majority of his minor-league career as a starter, before transitioning into something an opener role in the minors this season. It’s a sample size of just 13.2 IP, but he does have a 2.63 ERA (158 ERA+) in the majors.

Wood is a three-pitch guy, featuring a low-to-mid 90s four-seamer, a high-80s cutter, and a mid-70s curveball.

Last outing (vs. MIA on 7/21) – 2.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K

Tuesday (7:10 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Blake Snell

The Yankees plated 4 runs in 5 innings against Snell back on June 14, which ranks among his worst starts of the season. His line since then: 31.2 IP, 19 H, 5 R, 18 BB, 37 K, 1.42 ERA.

Last outing (vs. MIN on 7/12) – 3.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 2 K

UPDATE: The Rays placed Snell on the 10-day DL with shoulder fatigue this afternoon, so he’ll miss tomorrow’s start. The Rays currently have tomorrow’s starter listed as TBA. They’ll probably go with a bullpen game. We’ll see.

Wednesday (12:10 PM EST): RHP Luis Cessa vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi was also hit hard by the Yankees back in June, allowing 5 runs in 7.1 IP on June 15. He has been solid on the season, though, pitching to a 4.26 ERA (93 ERA+) in 10 starts (57.0 IP). The fact that he has made it back after so many surgeries and setbacks is a good story, and it’s easy to forget that he’s still on 28.

Last outing (vs. MIA on 7/20) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K

The Bullpen

The Rays have a solid-average to above-average bullpen. It ranks 1st in shutdowns, 7th in WPA, 10th in adjusted-ERA, and 12th in WAR, and they are relatively deep. Sergio Romo (3.26 ERA) seems most of the ninth inning work, and Jose Alvarado (2.52 ERA) is their high-leverage guy.

Who (Or What) To Watch

For better or worse, Eovaldi is a potential trade target for the Yankees (and pitching-starved teams across the league), and this is his next-to-last start before the deadline. The Rays have to be hoping for a bit outing here, and they’re almost certainly grateful that he’s facing the potent Yankees lineup at home.