Open Thread: TGIF

I know it’s the day after Thanksgiving and that a whole lot of you are in the middle of a four-day weekend, but there’s a large contingent of us that don’t have that luxury. Working the day after a holiday can be rough, especially when you’re still feeling fat and tired from a big feast. Anyway, that above is the latest graphic from RAB diehard Tyler Wilkinson, who managed to capture the feelings of Yankee fans everywhere in Brian Cashman‘s face and some block letters. Baffled indeed.

Here’s tonight’s open thread. The Islanders ended their 14 game losing streak by beating the Devils this afternoon, but the Rangers still have a game to play tonight. The Knicks and Nets are off. Talk about whatever you want, just be cool.

Close: Six-year, $150M demand is untrue

In an unsurprising turn of events, Derek Jeter‘s agent Casey Close shot down this morning’s report indicating that the Yankee captain wants a six-year deal worth $150M. “The recently rumored terms of our contract extension are simply inaccurate,” said Close to Yahoo’s Tim Brown. Like I said, it’s completely unsurprising. Jeter’s camp had to do some damage control even if report was true, because it’s a simply laughable request.

Barred any breaking news, I’m declaring RAB Derek Jeter-free this weekend. We all need a bit of a break from this circus.

WNYC: 161st St. businesses still struggling

As the Yankees designed and built their new stadium, they did so with one overriding goal in mind: The team wanted to capture as much Yankee-related revenue as possible. The old House that Ruth Built was short on souvenir space, and the sports memorabilia and merchandise stores across the street from the old stadium filled that void. The new stadium though features two massive retail stores that better capture dollars fans used to spend along River Ave. and 161st St., and businesses have been hurting outside the stadium.

As WNYC’s Ailsa Chang details, the stores in the surrounding area are seeing precipitous drops in revenue as new human traffic patterns take them out of the neighborhood and into the ballpark. Some stores are reporting revenue losses between 30-60 percent, and the neighborhood could soon be hurting commercially as the new stadium represents a self-contained baseball experience.

There is, however, a twist as some local business leaders say the stadium merchants aren’t adapting to the new multi-use aspect of the ballpark. “The Yankee Stadium venue is a world-class venue, and it’s going to attract world-class events — concerts, football, hockey and the like,” Cary Goodman, head of the 161st St. BID said. “And each of these has a different constituency, and they’re also consumers for different products.”

The RAB Radio Show: November 26, 2010

All the rage was the Derek Jeter story from this morning, but by this point it has cooled down. Six years and $150 million is a risky proposition for a star in his prime, never mind a player on the downslope. Clearly Jeter doesn’t think he’ll get that, but Mike and I run down the players to whom we’d make the offer.

Podcast run time 42:20

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Past Trade Review: Denny Neagle

On the heels of two consecutive World Championships and three in four years, the 2000 Yankees limped into July with a pedestrian 39-36 record that had them three games back of the Blue Jays. The team was in clear need of another bat and another starting pitcher, and Brian Cashman addressed the first issue when he acquired David Justice from the Indians in late-June. Just about three weeks before the trade deadline, Cashman addressed the need for a starting pitcher, shipping four prospects to the Reds for left-hander Denny Neagle and minor league outfielder Mike Frank.

“We like these [prospects], but we’ve made the decision to go for it,” said Brian Cashman shortly after the trade. “Denny Neagle is the guy we wanted. We feel he was the best pitcher available on the market. He has postseason experience. He’s healthy. He’s been successful. And a left-hander at Yankee Stadium—all those attributes played a part in it.”

The Yankees had first hand knowledge of Neagle; he threw six innings against them for the Braves in the 1996 World Series. Those were just two of his ten career postseason appearances (up to that point), which featured a 3.09 ERA with a .249 wOBA against in 35 innings. Before the trade he’d pitched to a 3.52 ERA (4.65 FIP) in 18 starts with the Reds, and from 1995 through 1999 he owned a 3.46 ERA (3.97 FIP) in just about 1,000 innings. There were obvious reasons to expect Neagle to be successful for the Yankees, and at the outset he was.

In his first start for New York, Neagle tossed eight innings of one run ball against the Phillies and then followed that up with complete game, one run effort against the then-Devil Rays. His next two outings were good but not great (7 IP, 4 R against both the Twins and Royals), but it all started to go downhill from there. The Mariners hung seven runs on Neagle in 5.2 innings next time out, capped off by a Carlos Guillen grand slam in the sixth. Five days later he gave up six runs to the Angels, recording just five outs. Neagle received a brief reprieve after shutting out the Angels for 6.2 innings in his next start, but he went on to allow 36 runs and ten homers in his final eight starts of the season, covering 45.2 innings. His season ERA had risen from 3.52 with the Reds to 4.52 overall.

(AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Neagle was on the team’s ALDS roster but did not pitch in the series. Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte both pitched on three days rest as the Yanks topped the A’s in five games. Those two starts, plus the need for third starter Orlando Hernandez to pitch in relief during Game Five, forced Joe Torre to start Neagle in Game One of the ALCS. He performed pretty well, holding the Mariners to two runs in 5.2 innings, but the Yankees didn’t bother to score and lost by the score of (yep) 2-0. Neagle then started Game Five with the Yanks leading the series three games to one, surrendering one run in 4.1 innings before Jeff Nelson relieved him and allowed a pair of inherited runners to score (and then some).

The Yankees eventually won the ALCS in six, advancing to the Subway Series. Pettitte, Clemens, and El Duque got the ball in Games One, Two, and Three, handing a two games to one series lead off the Neagle for Game Four. On another short leash, he held the Mets to two runs in 4.2 innings, but the Yankee bullpen made an early 3-2 lead stand up. The Yanks eventually won the series as you know, and Neagle was allowed to leave as a free agent after the season, signing that five-year, $51M contract with the Rockies. With the draft picks they received as compensation, the Yanks selected Bronson Sardinha and Jason Arnold.

All told, the Yanks received 91.1 innings out of Neagle, who pitched to a 5.81 ERA (5.23 FIP). His first playoff start was good but the other two were no better than acceptable, and all together Neagle was worth just 0.2 bWAR in pinstripes. The Yankees also assumed the $2.55MM left on his contract, a pittance by today’s salary standards. Mike Frank, the other player they received in the trade, never reached the big leagues with the Yankees, hitting .249/.329/.393 in 572 plate appearances with Triple-A Columbus in 2000 and 2001. He signed with the Cardinals as a minor league free agent after that, and has been out of baseball since 2002.

As for Cincinnati, they received a hodgepodge of four highly regarded prospects in the transaction. The headliner was 1998 third round pick Drew Henson, who had been rated the 24th best prospect in the game by Baseball America before the season. He played just 16 games in the Reds’ farm system that season, going 11-for-64 with eight doubles, a homer, four walks and 25 strikeouts. Cincy then traded him back to the Yankees (with outfielder Michael Coleman) after the season for another top prospect, outfielder Wily Mo Pena.

Left-hander Ed Yarnall was the second key piece for the Reds. Baseball America ranked him the 55th best prospect in the game before the 2000 season, and of course the Yankees originally acquired him in the ill-fated Mike Lowell trade. Yarnall had appeared in seven total games with the Yanks in 1999 and 2000, though he predictably struggled (14 K, 13 BB in 20 IP). Cincinnati never received even that much production out of him at the big league level; Yarnell made 11 starts for the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate after the trade (3.86 ERA) before bolting for Japan after the season. He returned to the U.S. in 2003, but not with the Reds and never to reach the majors again.

The third top prospect that headed to Cincinnati was outfielder Jackson Melian, who Baseball America ranked the 72nd best prospect in the game before the season. The then 20-year-old hit .236/.309/.398 in a year-and-a-half with Cincy’s various minor league affiliates, eventually getting plucked off waivers by the Brewers before the 2002 season. Melian never reached the big leagues, though he bounced around in the minors (including a second stint with the Yankees) through 2008.

Brian Reith. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

The fourth player was not a top 100 prospect, just a Single-A right-hander named Brian Reith. He was the only player Cincinnati received in the trade that actually managed to play for them at the big league level, throwing 127.2 innings (5.92 ERA) spread out from 2001 through 2004 before being claimed off waivers from the Phillies. His Reds career was worth -1.4 bWAR.

Neagle has long been considered a bust in pinstripes, but the Yankees got far more out of him than the Reds got out of the players they received. Other than the payroll savings and the secondary deal for Pena, Cincinnati received almost no return for two-plus months of their best starting pitcher. Neagle pitched poorly in New York, but he helped the team win a World Championship, which is exactly why they brought him in. It’s certainly not a clear win, but I’d rather have been on the Yankees end of the deal.

Mailbag: Koji Uehara, Bad Contracts

Hopefully everyone still has a belly full of turkey and a fridge full of leftovers. Let’s work off the Thanksgiving hangover with a mailbag. Just two questions this week, but they’re good ones. Remember to send in any questions via the Submit A Tip box in sidebar, otherwise let’s get to it…

Shaun asks: What are your thoughts on Koji Uehara as a relief option? He was pretty good in Baltimore last year in relief. According to MLBTR “but is coming off a season in which he posted a 2.86 ERA and a whopping 11.00 K/BB ratio in 43 relief appearances.” Or do you see him as a sleeper closer candidate for Tampa Bay so ARod can ruin his ninth innings?

I like Uehara and think there’s a good chance he’ll out-perform every free agent reliever not named Rafael Soriano or Mariano Rivera in 2011. He doesn’t walk anyone (just 1.30 BB/9 when you remove intentional walks) and misses a ton of bats (8.38 K/9 and 12.1% swings-and-misses) with his fastball-splitter combo, two traits you absolutely want in a late-game reliever. Uehara stepped in as the O’s closer late in the year, though Yankee fans surely remember two of his more memorable blow-ups (video and video).

There are two major drawbacks with Uehara, however. He’s an extreme fly ball guy, with a whopping 82.5% of the balls put him play off him over the last two years resulting in something other than a ground ball. It’s no surprise that he’s given up 12 homers in 110.2 MLB innings (0.98 HR/9). The other issue are the injuries. Uehara’s missed 212 of 364 total days over the last two seasons with everything from a chest contusion to a strained flexor tendon in his elbow to a hamstring strain. He’s not young (36 in April), so it’s not something we can simply brush under the run.

Uehara made $5M in each of the last two seasons, though he originally signed that contract as a starter. I’m not sure what kind of salary he’s looking for, but at his age and with his injury history, I can’t imagine any team will guarantee him more than one year. Regardless, I think that other clubs with more pressing needs in the back of the bullpen will pursue Uehara more aggressively, perhaps to be their closer. Because of that I don’t think the Yankees have much of a shot to sign him without overpaying, and given his extreme fly ball tendencies and medical history, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

Tyler asks: At what point does a bad contract become worth it? Take for instance, AJ Burnett. Despite his ups and downs, he pitched brilliantly in Game 2 of the 2009 World Series, and made his horrible 2010 season a little easier to accept. Without him, it’s doubtful the Yankees win the 2009 Series. So is that one Championship worth an $80+M contract? Does he need to contribute to one more? Two more? Is his deal more valuable than Mike Mussina’s because it resulted in a Championship?

There’s two ways to answer this. The nerdy way would be to compare Burnett’s total WAR to what the league is paying per win and use that. Right now it’s about $4M per win, give or take, so A.J. would have needed to post a 4.0 WAR season (or thereabouts) to justify his salary. He didn’t, but that’s  just one-fifth of his contract, so there’s still a long way to go. His two seasons in New York have totaled $20.6M of production based on the data at FanGraphs, during which time he’s been paid $33M. Based on this method, he’s not “earning it.”

The other way to look at this is completely subjective; how much do you personally value that World Series title and how much do you feel Burnett contributed to it? Obviously they don’t win it without him, but is that championship in year one enough to justify a five-year deal? The Yankees and their fans aren’t exactly long-suffering, so the value of a World Series victory to them isn’t as great as it is to say, the Indians or Brewers or Rays. Do I think that last season justifies his contract? I don’t, but you might feel differently.

Really, it’s all about expectations. The Yankees expect a certain level of production out of every player they employ (fans have their own set of expectations, which are quite often unrealistic), and whether or not he reaches that level of performance is what justifies the cost. I suspect the Yanks were counting on getting one very good year, two good years, one bad year, and one year lost to injury/replacement level production out of A.J. when they gave him that contract. He’s already gotten the bad year and one of the good years out of the way, and the odds are against him providing that very good year based on his age and recent performance.

Mussina’s situation is different because he was fantastic with the Yankees, it’s not like he failed to perform and needed a World Series win to make his resume respectable. No one should be complaining about what Moose did in pinstripes, he was worth every penny of  both contracts no matter how you look at it (FanGraphs values his Yankee career at $106.4M without counting his great 2001 season, and he was paid just over $109M during that time). With Burnett, we’re just in wait-and-see mode. Some might feel that the World Series win makes his contract worth it automatically, others not so much. It’s all about preference.

Explaining the Yankees behavior towards Jeter

When the Yankees started talking about the Jeter negotiations to the media, we knew something was afoot. Why would they go out of their way to make their position clear? Why would they strongarm a player who has helped define the franchise? While most fans didn’t appear to have a problem with the Yankees offering Jeter three years at $45 million, they did have a problem with the way the Yankees conducted themselves. In today’s Daily News, Bill Madden gives us the answer.

But sources close to the Jeter/Close camp have said their starting point was six years, $150 million and that they aren’t budging on $25 million per year

The Yankees, I’m sure, would have preferred to reveal Jeter’s position and leave it at that. Few, if any, fans would side with Jeter at that point. But the two sides have an agreement to not reveal the other’s position to the media. That’s actually what makes this leak so odd. If the Yankees broke their word and leaked it, why would they have started the war of words earlier this week? With Jeter’s position known, words are unnecessary. It is self-evidently ridiculous.

On the other side, why would Jeter’s camp ever let a figure like that reach the media? It obviously will not help them garner any further support. The general tenor among fans seems to be that 3/45 is fair, but that the Yankees shouldn’t spend so much time telling the world how fair it is. How does anyone close to Jeter think that leaking a six-year, $150 million demand will make anyone see their side? It only makes the 3/45 offer appear more fair. And it also, in a way, justifies the Yankees media barrage. I, too, would lash out if my negotiating tactics were termed “baffling” when my offer was fair and the player’s was the height of absurdity.

But before we get into a tizzy over this, there are two things to remember. First, these might not actually be Jeter’s demands. “Sources close to the Jeter/Close camp,” is ambiguous as it gets — maybe a step better than “someone familiar with their thinking.” This might be a misrepresentation for all we know. Second, this is just Jeter’s opening position, just as 3/45 is the Yankees opening position. Of course, if Jeter really won’t budge on $25 million per season he might end up sitting out 2011. Or else playing for $8 million elsewhere. Because the Yankees aren’t going near that figure.

We’ve been hit by a wave of Jeter news and speculation lately, to the point where most of us probably don’t want to hear it any more. We might be in luck. With the two sides so far apart and with the Yankees having a number of other items on the off-season agenda, I imagine that we’ll see the Yankees taking care of those more reasonable priorities. This isn’t to say that they’ll break off negotiations, but rather that there’s no sense in talking until Jeter realizes that he’s not getting anything near $25 million per season. After all this, silence might be the Yankees’ best weapon.

Update by Mike (11:05am ET): Newsday’s Jim Baumbach hears from a “person familiar” with the negotiations that Jeter is asking for less than above six-year, $150M deal rumored above.