Predictions are stupid (I said this yesterday). How can one person expect to figure out what’s going to happen over the course of a season before it’s even begun? The answer is they can’t. Yet if they’re right in their guesses, they’ll make sure everyone remembers it. If they’re wrong, no biggie; no one remembers pre-season predictions.
There is, however, value in the community. If we band together and each make predictions, perhaps if we add them together we’ll come up with something that resembles reality. Plenty of blogs conduct community projections for their teams’ rosters. While we’ve never done that at RAB, we’ve proved that we’re not above copying good ideas. So let’s dive into some community projections.
Here’s how we’ll work it. You’ll pick the six division winners, wild cards, playoff brackets, and MVPs, Cy Youngs, and ROYs for each league. Not only that, but at the suggestion of TJSC (okay, so maybe he came up with this entire idea; shut up), let’s take this further and talk mid-season trade. If a few high-payroll teams drop out of contention we could see a robust trade market come July. For the projections, name the player you think will be traded, and where he’ll land. Don’t worry about who the team gets in return. So, for example, Magglio Ordonez to the White Sox. That’s all we need.
To get the ball rolling, here are my picks:
WC: Red Sox
AL MVP: Mark Teixeira
NL MVP: Ryan Howard
AL ROY: Matt Weiters
NL ROY: Colby Rasmus
Magglio Ordonez to the Angels (after a Vlad injury)
Aubrey Huff to Cleveland
Jake Peavy to the Cubs
Placido Polanco to Arizona
Matt Holliday to Atlanta
Garrett Atkins to Houston
Make your picks, in more or less this format, in the comments. Then we’ll add ‘em up and make a page for it. With our powers combined,
we are Captain Planet maybe we can approach something resembling accurate projections.
When the Traveling A-Rod Circus makes its way up to Boston this year for the first time, the Yanks’ third baseman is sure to be greeted with a louder-than-usual chorus of Bronx cheers. Not one to engender much love in the Hub, A-Rod and his off-season steroid revelations simply give the Fenway Faithful more ammunition. I have to wonder though if this isn’t some huge act of hypocrisy perpetrated by baseball fans throughout the nation.
Yesterday, as I was
procrastinating work on an appellate brief browsing my usual baseball sites, I came across an article on Takashi Saito from the Oct. 3, 2008 edition of the Los Angeles Times. Saito, now the Red Sox set-up man was with the Dodgers at the time, and the article is about a medically groundbreaking procedure Saito received last July when he suffered what should have been a season-ending tear of his elbow’s ulnar collateral ligament.
Generally such an injury leads to Tommy John surgery, but in Saito’s case, it led to an injection of a medicine designed to greatly enhance his body’s natural healing process. That almost sounds like Human Growth Hormone, but it’s not. Here’s how the LA paper described the process:
Saito credited his unlikely recovery from a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow that he suffered in July to a cutting-edge medical procedure, which, to his knowledge, had never been tried on a major league pitcher. To this day, team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache can’t definitively say that injecting platelet-rich plasma into Saito’s elbow is what allowed him to avoid Tommy John surgery. ElAttrache also won’t guarantee how long the elbow will hold up or that Saito won’t have to have surgery in the future…
Trainer Stan Conte said he estimated that Saito had a 20% chance of pitching again this season and told management not to count on him being back. So when ElAttrache offered using PRP as an option, Conte was open to the idea.
Within a week of hurting his elbow, Saito had blood drawn and spun to isolate the platelets, which clot and promote healing. The platelets, 10 times more concentrated than in normal blood, were injected into the site of the tear in the elbow. ElAttrache said he used PRP in the past to repair tendons, but never ligaments.
So what’s the difference? Medically, Saito’s doctor took something found naturally in his body — platelets — concentrated them into a super-high dosage and then reinjected the platelets into the site of Saito’s injury. When a baseball player injects himself with a steroid, as far as my medical knowledge goes, he is basically doing the same thing. He takes a super-high dosage of testosterone, something found naturally in the body, or a synthetic substance and injecting into his body to promote quick healing and an unnatural edge.
Of course, what Saito did doesn’t run afoul of medical ethics, U.S. law or baseball rules. So the Red Sox fans will cheer him — or ignore him — as he contributes during the season, and A-Rod who went looking down illegal paths for that edge will get booed. It’s quite the conflict in baseball’s PED policy. How and where do you draw the line between acceptable forms of over-medicating?
Last week was a pretty uneventful one for the Yanks. Well, unless you count the opening of their new gazillion dollar palace. Derek Jeter hit the first ball out of the park in batting practice, and the team opened the place with a win over the Cubbies in an exhibition game. More good news about the New Stadium: you can actually drink in the bleachers now! It’s not all happy times though, because we might never The Voice of God again.
Aside from opening the New Stadium, the team finalized it’s two remaining roster questions, taking Jon Albaladejo as the seventh reliever and Ramiro Pena as the utility infielder. The Pena move is somewhat significant because it reinforces the front office’s dedication to getting younger, more athletic, and better defensively. Joba Chamberlain put together two strong starts to close out his spring, but more importantly Jorge Posada has seen the light. Brett Gardner was also named the best rookie in camp.
A-Rod‘s rehab from hip surgery continues to go well, and it looks like he might even be able to return in late April. Reegie Corona was returned by the Mariners, and Phil Hughes‘s strong spring continued in his latest Triple-A outing. All is good in Yankeeland these days.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. At some point in the next few weeks I’ll create a permanent link to a graph showing the change in fan confidence over time, but for now this will have to hold you over. Don’t worry, I’ll pretty it up eventually. Thanks in advance.
Well, beat the drum and hold the phone – the sun came out today!
We’re born again, there’s new grass on the field.
There’s an old saying in baseball. It goes a little something like this: Life begins on Opening Day.
That is a statement 100 percent true. This afternoon at around 4:07 p.m., weather permitting, Jeremy Guthrie will deal the first pitch of the Yankees’ season to Derek Jeter, and that countdown to game 162, to October, to a possible parade begins.
Every year, Opening Day is a special time for me. We spend the winter going over the what if’s. Who’s going to sign where? Who’s going to start? Who’s going to relieve? Who plays center field? Who overpaid? Who underpaid? Who wins the hardware? Who finds himself on the wrong end of a scandal?
It makes for great conversation, but it’s not baseball. For six months now, the Yankees haven’t played a game that counted. They closed out the season last year on Sept. 28, 2008 with a ten-inning loss to the Red Sox. For the first time since I was 11, the Yanks failed to play a game in October, and the team went out with a whimper.
Now we’re perched on the edge of a brand new day. Every one, every team, every pitcher is at 0, and the promise of a new season is fresh in the air. No one is facing an uphill climb to the pennant. No one is facing a firesale, a declining season, a disappointing performance. Everyone is just waiting for it to count again.
For the Yankees and their fans, the start of the season has come to mean expectation. Since Luis Gonzalez’s bloop fell beyond the reach of Derek Jeter on a warm November evening in Arizona seven and a half years ago, the Yanks have had the weight of baseball expectations on them. They’ve spent more money than any team since 2001 and have nothing but one AL pennant to show for it. Every year, they land the Next Big Thing and are picked to win it all. When they fall short, it’s a disappointment.
This year, though, it’s different. The Yanks, all $209 million of them, are underdogs. Sure, they have Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Sure, they have a multi-billion-dollar ballpark that offers riches for the richest and more money for the Yanks’ coffers. But they’ve been picked by many to finish third in a very competitive division. Before the season starts, the Yanks, used to lofty expectations, are being told not to expect much. That’s okay with me. It’s makes watching the games that more fun this year.
As 4 o’clock rolls around this afternoon, I’ll be wrapping up a class. I’ll head home, flip on the TV, and there will be baseball. There will be the Yanks in their road grays taking on the Orioles. It will be one of 162, and it will be a glorious rebirth of baseball, the game that kills us or elates us on a nightly basis, the game we love. It will be the two finest words in April. It will be Opening Day.
Got a beat-up glove, a homemade bat, and brand-new pair of shoes;
You know I think it’s time to give this game a ride.
The Charleston River Dogs website has the 2009 roster up. The most interesting thing is that both Carmen Angelini and Garrison Lassiter – both shortstops by trade – made the team. Lassiter is listed as an IF (Angelini a SS), so he may end up playing some third base because third round pick David Adams will be manning second. We’ll have to see how this plays out.
The rotation looks pretty stacked, headed by Andrew Brackman. Brett Marshall, Manny Banuelos and David Phelps will join him, with one of Brandon Braboy, Casey Erickson and Cory Arbiso holding down the fifth spot. Pat Venditte & Brad Rulon will anchor the bullpen like they did for Short Season Staten Island last year. The outfield is pretty exciting with Dan Brewer, Abe Almonte and Taylor Grote on board. I don’t have anything definitive on the Triple-A Scranton, Double-A Trenton or High-A Tampa rosters yet, but as soon as we find out I’ll post them. · (78) ·
Forgive the shameless self-promotion, but I’ll be Mike Silva’s show tonight around 7:45 to tell him what I think about the New Stadium after checking the place out yesterday. You can listen via the NY Baseball Digest website or 1240 AM WGBB. Howard Megdel of SNY will be on as well, but I’m not sure if we’ll be on at the same time. Either way, make sure you give it a listen.
While I’m doing that, Ben will be appearing on Tyler Hissey’s Around the Majors Weekly show at 8:00pm. He’ll be previewing the Yanks’ season for about 25 minutes, and you’ll be able to listen here. Once you’re done listening to me blabbing about the New Stadium, head on over and listen to Ben talk about the actual team.
Meanwhile, baseball season starts tonight! The first of 2,430 games will take place in Philadelphia, as the World Champion Phillies send Brett Myers to the mound to take on Derek Lowe and the Braves. In one of the many quirks of baseball, the Dodgers and Giants played a cactus league game this afternoon. The Yanks don’t start their season until tomorrow afternoon, but right now the weather isn’t looking so great, so they might have to push back the opener until Tuesday. Eh, what’s another day at this point? I’m sure this would ignite another round of kneejerk “the season starts too late so push it back two weeks so the weather is better and play the World Series in November but when it’s cold in November complain that they start the season too late and they should start it earlier so they don’t have to play World Series games in November!” reactions. You know what I’m talking about.
Anyway, here’s your open thread for the night. Talk about the Phils-Braves, Knicks-Raptors, Sixers-Nets, whatever your heart desires. Just be nice.
Oh, and if you haven’t already pledged for our 2009 Pledge Drive benefitting Joe Torre’s Safe At Home foundation, please considering doing so. Put your feelings about Joe aside and think of the kids who are scared to be in their own home.
While the Yankees have publicly set May 15 as Alex Rodriguez’s return date from hip surgery, a new report alleges that A-Rod could return by late April. A-Rod, out since going under the knife on March 9, has begun to swing the bat and according to Kevin Long, is at about 70 percent strength. The Yankees will move A-Rod from Colorado to Tampa this week, and if all goes better than planned, A-Rod could be back before April ends. The sooner the Yanks get A-Rod back, the better off they will be. · (52) ·
The 1998 Yankees were just a beast. They scored 965 runs and allowed just 656, a ridiculous run differential of +309. +309! Their pythag record was 108-54, but they still managed to outperform that by six wins. Insane.
If you’re not familiar with wRAA, read this. Essentially it’s a weighted measure of how many runs above average a player is offensively. Some thoughts on the graph:
- Bernie Williams was (and still is) so underappreciated, it’s not even funny.
- Four up the middle players: +90.0 wRAA. Four corner players plus DH: +78.5 wRAA. That’s what you call a “recipe for winning.”
- If you discount 1998, Scott Brosius’ career wRAA is -45.7. Yikes.
- Derek Jeter (+31 wRAA) outperformed the DH, left fielder and first baseman combined (+30.5 wRAA).
- Tim Raines also received significant playing time in left and at DH, chipping in another +7.7 wRAA.
- Seriously, Bernie was great.
(inspired by this)
Pitching for Double-A Trenton against Triple-A Scranton, Joba Chamberlain allowed two runs on two hits and a walk over five and a third innings earlier today. He struck out five, and after allowing the hits and walk to start he game, he retired the final sixteen batters he faced. He was removed after reaching his scheduled limit of 75 pitches. “It took me just a little bit to get going,” said Joba. “I wanted to work on fastball command and my changeup, and I think I did a great job with those two. I think it was one of my most productive days as far as consistency. It was good.” His first regular start is scheduled for Sunday at Kansas City. · (38) ·
What is our fascination with predictions? Why do sportswriters specifically feel the need to guess how a season will end on the day before it begins? The only three answer I can think of: 1) they want to sound smart, 2) their editors told them to, 3) everyone else is doing it. It’s still a fool’s game, so I’m going to refrain — though I will make a bold prediction, because no one expect that to happen.
The newspaper masses have assembled, and they’ve made their predictions for the 2009 AL East. Joy of Sox, one of the better Sox blogs, shares the Boston writers’ picks and the New York writers’ picks. You’ll never guess how each side picked.
Of the six writers from the Boston Globe, only two picked the Yankees to even make the playoffs, and none of them think the Yanks will take the division. Both of them, by the way, picked the Sox to win the World Series. On the New York end, we see that the Times loves the Yanks: both Jack Curry and Tyler Kepner picked them to win the division, though both had the Sox second and taking the Wild Card. Yet while every Red Sox writer had the Sox in the playoffs, one Yanks writer has excluded the hometown team. You can guess if you want, but I’m going to give it away: Bill Madden. He has the Rays winning 101 games. If there’s a 100-win team in the division, I certainly wouldn’t peg the Rays for the honor.
The lesson: don’t listen to the predictions. They mean nothing, and even that gives “nothing” a bad name. Just look at ESPN’s staff predictions. Ridiculous, right? Twins win the WC? Not that it can’t happen, but given what we know right now how could you possibly predict that?* Just stay away from what the “experts” say and enjoy the start of the season. It’s certainly one to get excited about.
* Answer: Matthew Berry knows that no one will remember his prediction when it doesn’t happen, but on the off-chance it does he’s going to reference it constantly in a reminder of just how smart he is.