I’ve been thinking about this for a bit, and I thought I’d throw it out there for some reaction.

Here’s why I think Alex will sign the extension. First off, I believe the Yankees will go $20 million or so higher than their current offer. Boras has made his stand, and now the Yankees are going to come in lower, and they’ll meet somewhere between.

Anyway, say A-Rod opts out. Everyone will know how much the Yankees offered. If he can’t secure an offer of that magnitude on the open market, it would be a nightmare for Team Boras. Say, after all is said and done, the Yankees make their best offer of a six-year extension at $30 million average annual value (as opposed to the five years and $28 mil and change under the current reported scenario). A-Rod hits the open market, and all he can get is eight years, $250 million. So he’d be taking $30 million less than the Yankees offered.

I believe Boras knows the market. I also believes that he knows his clients stands to make the most money from the Yankees. He won’t let Alex opt out if there’s a chance that no team bids as high as the Yanks. That would be PR nightmare.

Either way, if A-Rod signs an extension, it will be hours before his opt-out deadline. That’s just the way Boras works. I also think that he’ll have a hard time opting out with the Yankees’ offer on the table.

The Official ESPN Reporter of River Ave. Blues has an update for us on A-Rod and the Yankees. (Yes, he still thinks A-Rod would be a good fit for the Yankees.) Buster Olney writes:

The New York Yankees have asked to meet with third baseman Alex Rodriguez, and if and when they get that meeting, league sources indicate the team is prepared to make him an offer that will exceed, in average salary, the $27 million per year that he is scheduled to make over the next three seasons — and A-Rod would be in line to set yet another salary benchmark.

The offer could be for something in the range of five years — beyond the three years Rodriguez is already under contract for, from 2008-10 — and perhaps $30 million a year…If the Yankees’ extension offer is for something in the range of $150 million, over five years, then Rodriguez would be owed about $230 million over the next eight seasons.

So basically, the Yankees are willing to pay Alex Rodriguez an average annual salary of $28.7 million a year for eight seasons with a $30-million-a-year annual salary for the last five years of the deal. I find it hard to believe that Boras would be able to get more — or even equal — money from any other team.

Now, I know that some people keep speculating that A-Rod could go to the Red Sox. However — and this news highlights the very silver lining in what seems to be an inevitable World Series championship for the Sox — the Red Sox probably already have a third baseman. MLB Trade Rumors highlighted a report in The Boston Herald in which GM Theo Epstein basically said that Mike Lowell is all but signed for the next few years.

While one could argue — rather successfully — that Julio Lugo sucks, A-Rod is simply no longer a short stop. It would be nice if other American League short stops could recognize that truth as well.

Meanwhile, in Olney’s story, he notes that the Yankees may not get their meeting with Boras. I find that exceedingly hard to believe as the Yankees hold more money than anyone else. By all accounts, they’re willing to spend it, and Boras and A-Rod are better off listening to what the Yanks have to say than they are in ignoring them outright.