River Avenue Blues

Cano remains productive amid slump

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(Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

The last two days are just what Robinson Cano has needed. For months he’d seen his numbers steadily fall from his peak of .321/.382/.587 on July 16th. After going 0 for 4 on Monday Cano’s numbers had declined to .293/.362/.519 — good by any measure, great when compared to other second basemen*. Those numbers even compare favorably to Cano’s 2010 season. But after a torrid couple of months, we’d come to expect a bit more out of Cano.

*The average AL 2B hits .249/.310/.372.

Since that peak period in mid-July, Cano has hit .264/.345/.436 in 281 PA. That’s more than a third of the season, though those are just arbitrary end points. He has had some super productive stretches inside that 281 PA sample; from July 31 through August 16, for instance, he hit .321/.429/.547 in 63 PA. He also started off September not so horribly, hitting .275/.383/.550 from the first through the 12th. But that means he also had some pretty poor stretches in that period.

Yet even in those unproductive periods he has managed to keep his overall numbers in decent shape. For instance, from August 17th through the 31st he hit .245/.327/.469. During that stretch he walked six times (one intentional), good for an 11 percent walk rate. From the 13th through the 24th he was particularly bad, going 8 for 45 with just two extra base hits, but he again walked six times, good for an 11.75 percent walk rate. Even when he’s played poorly this year, Cano has remained somewhat productive for doing what he’s failed to do for most of his career: work a walk.

After a hot start in 2011 — .320/.340/.630 through May 1 — Cano slowed down considerably. In his next 143 PA he hit .237/.294/.405, walking just six times in that span. In September 2010, when he had a shot to steal the MVP with Josh Hamilton on the shelf, he hit .262/.304/.346 in 115 PA. That was just a 5 percent walk rate. Combined with the complete lack of power, it led to a considerable drop in his numbers and his removal from serious consideration for MVP. We needn’t even explore his pre-2010 career to find slumps where he not only hit for a low average, but also didn’t walk. Before 2010 Cano hardly walked at all: a mere 4.2 percent rate through 3036 PA.

One of Cano’s biggest changes in 2010 was his walk rate, which jumped to 8.2 percent. Of course, with his new spot in the middle of the order he was also intentionally walked far more often. That year pitchers passed on him 14 times; his previous career high was five, in 2007. Still, he did see his unintentional walk rate rise from 4.2 percent in 2009 to 6.2 percent in 2010. But in 2011 that dropped all the way to 4 percent. This year, while he’s been intentionally walked 10 times, he still has a 7.5 percent unintentional walk rate. It has helped keep him reasonably productive even when he’s not hitting for average or power.

For the first five years of his career, Cano was a guy who could hit with the best of them, but whose slumps hurt the team for stretches. When he slumped he did nothing productive; he didn’t hit for average or power, and he didn’t get on base. Even in 2010 and 2011 he still had trouble with taking passes amid slumps. Perhaps now, as he approaches age 30, Cano’s game has matured a bit. Even when he has slumped this year he’s managed to take walks and keep his numbers out of the gutter amid slumps. It doesn’t completely make up for the disappointment in his declining numbers since mid-July, but it’s certainly something positive he contributed amid that decline.

9/27-9/30 Series Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

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(Winslow Townson/Getty)

The Yankees and Blue Jays have already played four series in the second half, which includes nine of New York’s last 43 games. They’ll close out the season series with four games up in Toronto, which tends to be a house of horrors. The Yankees swept the Jays in the Bronx a week ago and lead the season series 9-5.

What Have They Done Lately?

The Blue Jays did the Yankees a favor by taking two of four from the Orioles this week, but they got their brains beat in yesterday. They’ve won just two of six since getting swept in the Bronx last week. Overall, the Jays are just 68-87 and stuck in last place in the AL East.

Offense

(Brad White/Getty)

Injuries have taken a toll on the offense, so the 4.4 runs per game average doesn’t really tell the whole story. The Blue Jays lost Jose Bautista (140 wRC+) to a wrist injury weeks ago, but they still have 42-homer man Edwin Encarnacion (155 wRC+). He was having some foot problems the last time these two clubs played, but he’s 100% now. That’s unfortunate.

The rest of the regular lineup is headlined by Brett Lawrie (92 wRC+), Moises Sierra (91 wRC+ in limited time), J.P. Arencibia (91 wRC+), and Adam Lind (91 wRC+). They’re the only other guys within ten percentage points of league average. Kelly Johnson (87 wRC+), Rajai Davis (86 wRC+), Colby Rasmus (84 wRC+), and Yunel Escobar (76 wRC+) are a bit below that. Anthony Gose (75 wRC+) has been disappointing overall, but he’s performed much better in September than he did in August. The rest of the position player crops features Jeff Mathis (69 wRC+), Omar Vizquel (46 wRC+), and a bunch of September call-ups: infielder Adeiny Hechavarria and utility men Yan Gomes and Mike McCoy.

Pitching Matchups

Thursday: RHP Ivan Nova vs. RHP Brandon Morrow
This was supposed to be a breakout year for the 28-year-old Morrow, who instead wound up missing more than two months with an oblique injury. He’s pitched to a 3.28 ERA (3.82 FIP) in his 19 starts though, so perhaps he was on his way to that breakout. The good news for Morrow is that his walk rate (2.87 BB/9 and 7.8 BB%) is a career-low, but so is his strikeout rate (7.71 K/9 and 21.0 K%). This is a guy that came into the season with a career strikeout rate north of ten per nine. The stuff is the same as always, a mid-90s four-seamer and a vicious upper-80s slider that is allergic to bats. He’ll also mix in a mid-80s splitter and a low-80s curveball. Morrow has decent career numbers against the Yankees but he’s always had this weird home/road thing going on against them. He dominates the Bombers in Toronto (1.26 ERA in 35.2 innings) but gets hammered in the Bronx (7.62 ERA in 28.1 innings). Unfortunately the Yankees are north of the border this week.

(J. Meric/Getty)

Friday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. RHP Chad Jenkins
Jenkins, 24, recently moved into the rotation after coming up as a reliever at midseason. He’d started throughout his minor league career so it wasn’t anything new to him, and he held the Rays to one run in five innings while on a pitch count last time out. The right-hander owns a 4.24 ERA (5.34 FIP) in 23.1 innings this year, but again most of that came in relief. His peripherals stats — 4.63 K/9 (12.0 K%), 2.70 BB/9 (7.0 BB%), 1.54 HR/9, and 39.7% grounders — leave an awful lot to be deserved. Jenkins is a four-pitch pitcher, though he didn’t use his low-80s changeup all that much coming out of the bullpen. Low-90s two- and four-seamers set up his low-to-mid-80s slider. He threw a 1-2-3inning against the Yankees a few weeks ago, his second career appearance in the show.

Saturday: LHP Andy Pettitte vs. LHP Ricky Romero
This is will be the final start of Romero’s nightmare season, one that features a 5.76 ERA (5.19 FIP). The 27-year-old southpaw has set a new career-worst in every meaningful category, including strikeout (6.12 K/9 and 14.9 K%), walk (5.21 BB/9 and 12.7 BB%), and ground ball (53.7%) rates. The stuff is still the same — low-90s two- and four-seamers, low-80s changeup, upper-70s curveball — but his location has just been brutal. Romero’s been missing his spots and getting hit very, very. hard. The Yankees have faced the struggling left-hander four times this season, but the only time they really laid into him was back in July (six runs in six innings). In his last three starts against New York, Romero has allowed just six total runs in 20 innings.

Sunday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. LHP Aaron Laffey
Laffey, a former Yankee, has shuffled between the rotation and bullpen this year as injuries have decimated the pitching staff. The 27-year-old southpaw has pitched to a 4.52 ERA (5.56 FIP) in 95.2 total innings, relying on ground balls (49.4%) more than anything else. His strikeout (4.52 K/9 and 11.8 K%) and walk (3.48 BB/9 and 9.1 BB%) rates aren’t anything special. Laffey is a classic finesse lefty, sitting in the mid-80s with his four-seamer, cutter, and sinker. Low-80s sliders and changeups are his offspeed weapons of choice. The Yankees scored five runs off Laffey in three innings a week ago, and have hit him around a number of times this year in general.

There’s a decent chance that Henderson Alvarez will step in and start one of these games. He and Romero each started one end of a doubleheader earlier this week, so something has to give. Alvarez could start Saturday and push Romero back to Sunday, or he could start Sunday (pushing Laffey out of the series in both instances). Or he could not pitch at all. It’s unclear at the moment.

(Dave Reginek/Getty)

Bullpen Status
The recent doubleheader taxed manager John Farrell’s bullpen a bit, but yesterday’s blowout allowed some September call-ups to eat some innings while the core late-game relievers rested. Closer Casey Janssen (3.22 FIP) is setup by righty Brandon Lyon (3.01 FIP) and lefty Darren Oliver (2.85 FIP), plus the hard-throwing Steve Delabar (4.14 FIP) has thrown very well since being acquired from the Mariners at the trade deadline. Side-winding southpaw Aaron Loup (1.89 FIP) has pitched his way into a prominent role as well.

Jason Frasor (3.73 FIP) and Brad Lincoln (4.16 FIP) are the big names among the rest of the relievers, a group that is largely populated by call-ups. Farrell has five extra righties (David Carpenter, Joel Carreno, Chad Beck, Shawn Hill, Bobby Korecky) and one extra lefty (Brett Cecil) at his disposal. The Yankees have a relatively fresh bullpen thanks to CC Sabathia’s eight innings yesterday, but make sure you check out our Bullpen Workload page for the exact details. For the latest and greatest on the Blue Jays, Drunk Jays Fans and Tao of Stieb are the places to go.

Missing a healthy Mark Teixeira

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(Brian Kersey/Getty Images)

The Yankees needed the 2009 version of Mark Teixeira in 2012, but instead got something more closely resembling his rookie campaign. After two years of disappointing performances, Teixeira has turned in his weakest one yet. It doesn’t matter which stat you choose; they all look lousy compared to the expectations he set from 2004 through 2009. His 2012 campaign looks even worse now that he’s spent almost all of the last month on the shelf.

At the same time, the Yankees are desperately missing Teixeira’s bat in the middle of the lineup. That is, they’re missing what the healthy Mark Teixeira produced in 2012. While his overall numbers don’t reflect it, he was, for a stretch, a productive member of the lineup. Given the failings of other middle of the order hitters this month — Robinson Cano was hitting just .250/.353/.398 and A-Rod .256/.305/.384 going into yesterday’s game — they could use some more power behind Derek Jeter and Ichiro.

The Cough

Early in the season Mark Teixeira came down with some kind of cold, and without regular rest it lingered. It might seem like a small thing, a mere cough, but think about it from a hitter’s perspective. You’re at the plate with a guy hurling a ball at you, and you have this burning in the back of your throat. It takes an insane amount of concentration to hit a baseball as it is. Now imagine having that concentration distracted because you have a cough coming up. It’s no simple task, and Teixeira certainly suffered for it.

Instead of the slow starts to which we’ve become accustomed, Teixeira slogged through the first month and a half of the season. He hit just .228/.283/.386, and his numbers were greatly propped up by his one great performance, 3 for 6 with 2 HR in Boston. In mid-May Girardi gave him a weekend off, and it seemed to do the trick. Since then he has hit .270/.361/.526 — not quite 2009 Teixeira, but certainly quality numbers given his depressed numbers in 2010 and 2011.

Things actually looked a bit better for a while, but then another injury struck.

The Wrist

On July 30th Teixeira left the game against the Orioles after hurting his wrist. The timing couldn’t have been worse, and not just because the Yankees had just lost Alex Rodriguez a few days prior. Teixeira had been on an absolute tear since that weekend on the bench. In 256 PA he was hitting .277/.371/.568. Considering the overall league offensive decline, these numbers lined up pretty well with his 2009 production.

Wrist injuries are notorious for sapping power, and that’s exactly what happened to Teixeira. After returning on August 3rd he hit .250/.330/.408 in 88 PA. Worse, he re-injured the wrist in a game on August 16. He returned just four days later, but went 5 for 22 with a lone double before the calf injury.

The Replacements

Since the calf injury Yankees first basemen have hit .225/.343/.393, a downgrade from even Teixeira’s full-season line of .255/.336/.478, never mind a healthy Teixeira. Yet even those numbers are a bit high; they don’t consider the game that Teixeira himself played first base, in which he went 1 for 4 with a walk and a double. Absent that game Yankees first basemen are hitting .223/.340/.388.

There’s a trickle-down effect, too. Nick Swisher has taken many of those at-bats at first base. While he hasn’t had a banner September, hitting .212/.316/.388 prior to yesterday, his absence is noted in right field. Since the Teixeira injury right fielders are hitting just .204/.282/.312, and while some of that is certainly Swisher’s doing, clearly there are others bringing down the numbers in right.

The Postseason

The hope is that the Yankees can get Teixeira back in time for the postseason. We had heard that he might be ready for this weekend’s series in Toronto, but given his progress it doesn’t seem likely. He has been progressing in the last week or so, though he did take a planned day off from running yesterday. He still hasn’t gone full speed, and says he is still experiencing tightness and soreness in his calf. As Joe Girardi said this week, “The concern is that you rush him and then he has that one play and then you know he’s probably gone for the season. You have to make sure.” It sounds like a longwinded way of saying that Teixeira is back against Boston at the earliest.

Getting Teixeira back for the postseason could be huge, especially if his time on the shelf has given his wrist ample time to heal. Yankees fans might not be excited about the prospect of Teixeira in the postseason; he’s hit just .170/.276/.302 in 123 postseason PA for the Yanks. Yet we’ve seen other Yankees postseason heroes falter in the postseason. Tino Martinez hit .183/.294/.290 in his first 109 PA as a Yankee in the postseason before hitting .280/.351/.430 from the World Series, 1998, through the World Series, 2001.

Tino hit well enough for the Mariners in the 1995 playoffs, .273/.360/.364 against New York and Cleveland. Teixeira actually hit better in his lone pre-Yankees postseason series, going 7 for 15 with four walks against Boston in the 2008 ALDS. This isn’t to say that Teixeira will turn around his postseason performance in the same way Tino did. But it is to say that Teixeira’s failures as a Yankee in the postseason don’t necessarily doom him to the same fate in the future.

If you only look at Teixeira’s 2012 season, you’ll only get part of the story. You’ll see his overall poor numbers and how they’ve hurt the team relative to expectations. You’ll see a third straight year of declining numbers, certainly a cause for concern for the final four years of his contract. But you won’t see how the season unfolded. The stat sheet doesn’t document his struggles early in the year, his resurgence when healthy, and his post-injury production. It’s not an excuse for his performances; rather, it’s a clarification of them. The Yanks could sure use that healthy mid-May to late-July Teixeira in the lineup in the postseason. It could make a huge difference in the offensive production.

Late-night standings update

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The Orioles, Rays, and Angels all won on Wednesday night, meaning the playoff picture did not change at all. Another day did tick off the calendar, however. Baltimore is two games back of the Yankees in the AL East while the Rays are five back. The magic number to clinch the division is six with seven games to play. The Angels are four back for the second wildcard spot, and the magic number to clinch a postseason berth is down to just four. Hooray for that.

Teixeira resumes running in Tampa

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Mark Teixeira has yet to participate in any Instructional League games down in Tampa, but the first baseman has resumed running as he works his way back from his left calf strain. Teixeira has been taking batting practice and fielding drills for about a week now, but he’s only been able to ease back into the running. Joe Girardi said the team hopes to get him into a simulated game soon. There’s only a week left in the regular season, so we’re starting to approach crunch time as far as getting him back in advance of a potential postseason series.

Wednesday Night Open Thread

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Hooray for old baseball promos. It’s too bad I can’t remember anything that happened before like, 1989. Anyway, here is your open thread for the evening. The Mets are playing the Pirates (Hefner vs. Locke), and ESPN will air the Athletics at the Rangers (Parker vs. Perez) a little later on. Use this thread to talk about anything but politics. Thanks in advance.

Sabathia cruises as Yanks take series from Twins

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For the fourth straight year and 11th time in the last 12 years, the Yankees have won 90 games. Their 8-2 win over the Twins on Wednesday afternoon gave the Bombers the series win, but more importantly it inched them ever closer to a playoff berth and a second straight AL East crown.

(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

CC on Cruise Control

The second half has been a bumpy road for CC Sabathia, but he dominated the Athletics last week and carried that over against the Twins on Wednesday. He allowed just two runs — on singles by former Yankees farmhand Matt Carson and Pedro Florimon, the second of which deflected off of Sabathia’s leg and away from Robinson Cano at second — in eight innings, striking out ten against just two walks. At one point he retired 14 of 16 batters faced and ended up throwing 118 total pitches.

Sabathia struck out the side on ten pitches in the fourth inning, so he was dangerously close to an Immaculate Inning. He also struck Joe Mauer out three times on nine total pitches (!) before getting a first pitch ground out in his fourth at-bat. It’s only the sixth time in Mauer’s 1,059-game career that he’s whiffed three times in one game (!!), and Sabathia joins Ryan Dempster and former 21-game loser Mike Maroth as the only pitchers to singlehandedly strike him out three times in a single game. CC is now the only guy to do it twice. More importantly though, he’s starting to round into form and that’s very, very good news for the Yankees.

(Hannah Foslien/Getty)

Bring In The Lefty? Six-Run Third

The third of three Twins starters probably no one heard of coming into the series, right-hander Samuel Deduno lasted just five outs and 30 pitches due to a left eye issue. Ron Gardenhire replaced him with left-hander Brian Duensing, which seemed like a problem for the Yankees because six of their nine starters were lefties. Duensing struck out Raul Ibanez to end the second inning, but it was all downhill for the 2009 ALDS Game One Starter from there.

After Chris Stewart opened the third with a ground out, the left-handed Chris Dickerson grounded a two-strike single back up the middle to start the rally. Ichiro Suzuki followed with a single to almost the exact same spot, then Derek Jeter drew a walk to loaded the bases. The day’s 3-4-5 hitters plated five total runs with a two-run double to right (Cano), a one-run single to right (Nick Swisher), and a two-run triple into the right field corner (Curtis Granderson). Granderson scored on a wild pitch as Eric Chavez was being walked, then Duensing’s day was over after retiring Ibanez for the second time. Of the seven left-handed hitters the southpaw faced, five reached base. Ibanez was the only one who didn’t. I guess that strategy backfired.

Leftovers

Jeter took an 0-for-4 with a walk, so his hitting streak came to an end at 19 games. It was the third longest streak of his career. The Cap’n has still reached base in a season-high 27 games though, and that’s the fifth longest single-season streak of his career. Pretty neat. Ichiro extended his hitting streak to ten with a 2-for-4 afternoon.

Dickerson plated some extra insurance runs with a two-run blast off the facing of the right field upper deck in the sixth inning. I’m telling you, the guy can hit righties. He can also play some strong defense in all three outfield spots and is a high-percentage base-stealer. Not calling him an All-Star or anything, but C-Dick is a better player than most people realize. Ichiro, Cano, Ibanez, and Dickerson all had two hits while Swisher (single, walk), Chris Stewart (single, walk), and Chavez (two walks) all reached twice as well.

Cano had himself a nice day at the plate with the two-run double, but he also turned several nice plays in the field as well. Some were solo jobs coming in on ground balls, but on two occasions he teamed up with Swisher on relay plays at the bag, like the play above. Brett Gardner also got into the game in the ninth inning, taking over in left field for the final three outs. He didn’t have to make any plays because Cody Eppley didn’t allow anything to be hit out of the infield.

Chavez forgot how many outs there were in the fifth inning, simply stepping on third base and trotting towards the dugout with runners on first and second with one out. I don’t think it would have been a double play anyway because he was playing back and the speedy Florimon was running down the line, but still. He can’t be making mistakes like that. Sabathia escaped the inning unscathed but had to throw four extra pitches, assuming the double play would have been turned.

The six runs the Yankees scored in the third was their fourth highest-scoring inning of the season. They’ve scored seven runs in one inning on three separate occasions this season, including in both the seventh and eighth innings of the 15-9 comeback win in Fenway Park. They also plated seven in one inning as part of a big win over the Orioles on August 1st.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights while ESPN has the updated standings. The magic number to clinch the division is down to six while the magic number to clinch a postseason berth is just four. Those numbers could drop further tonight depending on what happens with the Orioles, Rays, and Angels.


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next

It’s off to Toronto for the final road series of the season. The Yankees will open the four-game set against the Blue Jays on Thursday night, when Ivan Nova squares off against Brandon Morrow.