8/24-8/26 Series Preview: Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is one of just two AL cities the Yankees have yet to visit this season (Minnesota is the other), but the Yankees are in town for a three-game set this weekend. The Bombers swept three games from the Tribe back in late-June, back when they were on the middle of an all-out assault against the rest of baseball.
What Have They Done Lately?
The Indians are bad. I mean really, really bad. They’ve lost eight in a row and 21 of their last 25 games overall. Since topping out at five games over .500 on June 10th, Cleveland has gone 23-43 and fallen 15 games back of the White Sox in the AL Central. At 54-70 with a -131 run differential, the Tribe has the second worst record and easily the worst run differential in the league.
Offense
With an average of 4.4 runs per game and a team 97 wRC+, the Indians are essentially a league average offense. Their best player is true five-tool outfielder Shin-Soo Choo (133 wRC+), who can beat you with his legs, his defense, or his bat. He leads the club with 15 homers and pretty much every other meaningful offensive category as well. It’s worth noting that Choo, a left-handed hitter, has a massive platoon split — 166 wRC+ vs. RHP but a 67 wRC+ vs. LHP.
Most of Cleveland’s top hitters are left-handed, but switch-hitters Carlos Santana (112 wRC+) and Asdrubal Cabrera (111 wRC+) provide some balance. Michael Brantley (106 wRC+) and Jason Kipnis (100 wRC+) provide a little more lineup depth as well. Casey Kotchman (82 wRC+) has been predictably terrible, though the recently recalled Ezequiel Carrera (130 wRC+) has provided some spark in limited action. Former Yankee Shelley Duncan (94 wRC+ vs. LHP) leads the gaggle of platoon players that includes Jack Hannahan (80 wRC+ vs. RHP) and Brent Lillibridge (39 wRC+ vs. LHP). Utility infielder Jason Donald (45 wRC+) and backup catcher Lou Marson (82 wRC+) round out the bench. The Yankees catch a little bit of a break because Travis Hafner (121 wRC+) is on the DL with back problems.
Pitching Matchups
Friday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Corey Kluber
A 26-year-old rookie, Kluber will be making his fifth career start tonight. He pitched very well in Triple-A (3.59 ERA and 3.38 FIP) but has been unable to carry that success over to the show — his best start was three runs in six innings against the lowly Twins. Otherwise he’s pitched to a 6.27 ERA (5.77 FIP) with few strikeouts (6.27 K/9 and 14.8K%) but decent ground ball (42.4%) and walk (3.38 BB/9 and 8.0 BB%) rates in just 18.2 innings. Kluber is a true four-pitch pitcher, using a low-90s fastball to setup his upper-80s slider, mid-80s changeup, and low-80s curveball. The Yankees, obviously, have never seen him before.
Saturday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. RHP Justin Masterson
Masterson was Cleveland’s Opening Day starter this year, but he’s been unable to build on last year’s breakout season. He’s sitting on a 4.73 ERA (4.13 FIP) that closely resembles his pre-2011 performance, and the same goes for his walk rate (3.90 BB/9 and 9.9 BB%). Both his strikeout (7.07 K/9 and 18.0 K%) and ground ball (56.0%) percentages remain at their usual levels. Masterson is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, relying on a bowling ball low-90s sinker and a sweepy mid-80s slider. He’ll throw two or three mid-80s changeup per start, but that’s it. The Yankees have seen plenty of the 27-year-old dating back to his days with the Red Sox, and they tagged him for four runs in six innings earlier this year. It’s worth noting that Masterson has a massive platoon split, holding righties to a .279 wOBA but getting tagged for a .357 wOBA by lefties.
Sunday: RHP David Phelps Freddy Garcia vs. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez
You have to think the Indians expected a little more than a replacement level pitcher when they traded away four young players for Jimenez last season. The 28-year-old right-hander owns a 5.59 ERA (5.33 FIP) in 143.1 innings this season, all because of astronomical walk (5.02 BB/9 and 12.3 BB%) and homer (1.44 HR/9) rates. Both the strikeout (7.53 K/9 and 18.4 K%) and ground ball (39.2%) numbers are way down compared to his career norms. Jimenez has been steadily losing velocity in recent years and now sits in the low-90s with his two- and four-seamers. He’ll also throw a mid-80s split-change hybrid as well as a low-80s slider and an upper-70s curveball. Like Masterson, the Yankees hung four runs on six innings on Ubaldo earlier this season.
Bullpen Status
Like the Yankees, the Tribe has a fresh bullpen because they had Thursday off. Manager Manny Acta has one of the best closer-setup tandems in baseball at his disposal in Chris Perez (2.47 FIP) and Vinnie Pestano (2.87 FIP). I’m kinda disappointed that Pestano is from California and not Brooklyn, just because a name like Vinnie Pestano should belong to a Brooklynite. You just know his grandmother calls him Vincent.
Anyway, the Indians are carrying eight relievers these days. Tony Sipp (4.39 FIP) and Chris Seddon (3.74 FIP in limited time) are the two left-handers, and right-hander Cody Allen (3.61 FIP) has emerged as a late-game arm recently. He was a 23rd round pick in last year’s draft and became the second player from that class to reach to big leagues earlier this season. Only Trevor Bauer beat him. Frank Herrmann (3.62 FIP), Esmil Rogers (3.91 FIP), and Joe freakin’ Smith (3.67 FIP) round out their relief corps. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for info on the Yankees’ bullpen, and then check out any of The DiaTribe, Let’s Go Tribe, or Wahoo’s on First for the latest and greatest on the Cleveland nine.
Mailbag: Cruz, Phelps, Ichiro, Jeter, A-Rod
It seemed like we got an awful lot of questions this week, but I picked just four for the mailbag. Keep sending them in though, one of these weeks I’ll do a rapid fire mailbag with like, 12-15 questions. Please use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything at anytime.
J.R. and several others asked: With the bullpen not looking great, would Juan Cruz make sense?
I started thinking about this as soon as I saw that the Pirates had designated Cruz for assignment (he was officially released yesterday). The 33-year-old missed just about a month with shoulder inflammation but otherwise has pitched to a 2.78 ERA (4.19 FIP) in 35.2 innings for Pittsburgh this season. His strikeout (8.33 K/9 and 20.4 K%) rate was fine and his walk rate (4.79 BB/9 and 11.7 BB%) was high, just like every other season of his career. That’s actually his lowest BB% since 2006, if you can believe it. The fastball isn’t what it used to be, but PitchFX says he’s still running it up there in the 92-94 mph range.
Cruz has struck out just one batter in his last nine appearances (7.1 IP and 36 batters faced), which includes three appearances before the DL stint and six after. He’s struggled a little bit of late but nothing crazy. You do have to be skeptical anytime a team releases a reliever in favor of Chad Qualls, so perhaps the reason why he’s available is something we just don’t know as outsiders. The Yankees don’t have much bullpen help coming in September, so signing Cruz to a minor league pact with the promise of a September 1st call-up sure seems to make sense from where I sit. I guess it depends on the medicals more than anything.
Steve asks: Assuming Andy Pettitte returns successfully, what would David Phelps have to do the next month to win the postseason rotation spot over Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, and Freddy Garcia?
This was sent in before Nova was placed on the DL, so let’s remove him from the discussion. The easy answer is that Phelps would have to pitch phenomenally well the rest of the season, and I don’t mean slightly out-pitch Hughes or Garcia. Those guys have track records and will get the benefit of the doubt. Phelps would have to pitch like Hiroki Kuroda has been of late, I mean completely dominating each time out. That’s not easy to do.
Obviously a lot depends on the ALDS schedule and who the Yankees would be playing in a potential playoff series, but right now I would lean towards Garcia as my Game Four starter. Both Hughes and Phelps have shown not just that they can pitch in relief, but that they can be true weapons out of the bullpen. As an added bonus, both would be in position to contribute multiple innings in relief. The fourth starter is marginalized in the postseason — quick hooks, starting only when absolutely necessary — and I would rather let Freddy be that guy.
Donny asks: I doubt I am the first to bring up this idea, but with everyone working under the assumption that Nick Swisher is not re-signed, doesn’t Ichiro Suzuki make sense? I would think a one year deal worth $6-8 million would work with some kind of team option for 2014, no?
A few people asked this as well and I’m not really a fan of bringing Ichiro back. Maybe if they trade Brett Gardner this winter it would make more sense, but I doubt that happens. I’m not a fan of powerless corner outfielders — the Yankees would be lucky to get ten total homers out of Gardner and Ichiro next season if they’re both starters — no matter how much contact they make or how great their defense and base-running is. Having one guy like that in the outfield is fine, but two is really pushing it. If the Yankees let Nick Swisher walk, they’ll need to replace him with someone who can hit for some power, particularly against left-handers. That ain’t Ichiro.
Kevin asks: With all of the recent talk of Derek Jeter possibly breaking Pete Rose’s hit record, which do you think is more likely to happen at this point: Alex Rodriguez passing Barry Bonds or Jeter passing Rose?
Jeter is currently 999 hits behind Rose, so he’ll need another five or six really good years to become the all-time hit king. I’m talking 180+ hits a year on average until he turns 43 or 44. A-Rod, on the other hand, is 118 homers behind Bonds, which works out to another five or six really good years (20+ homers per season). Both seem improbable at this point but not impossible. I know which one I think is more likely to happen, but this question is screaming for a poll…
Which is more likely to happen?
- Jeter passes Rose for the hit record
- A-Rod passes Bonds for the homer record
Jeter on managing: “No chance. No chance. Nada. Zero. No, not a chance.”
Hoping to see Derek Jeter in the dugout managing the Yankees after his playing career is over? Don’t count on it. “No chance. No chance. Nada. Zero. No, not a chance,” said the Cap’n to Jeremy Lynn when asked about that very scenario, which isn’t all that surprising. Jeter never struck me as the coaching or managing type. I could see Jorge Posada or Mariano Rivera doing it, maybe even Andy Pettitte, but not Jeter. Just doesn’t seem like him and there’s nothing wrong with that at all. (h/t HBT)
Flores has monster night in Tampa loss
Triple-A Empire State (4-3 win over Buffalo in 11 innings)
RF Chris Dickerson: 2-4, 2 R, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SB
2B Corban Joseph: 2-5, 3 RBI, 1 K
SS Eduardo Nunez, C Frankie Cervelli & LF Kevin Russo: all 0-5 — Cervelli struck out once, the other two guys twice each
DH Brandon Laird: 1-5, 1 K
1B Kosuke Fukudome: 1-3, 2 BB, 1 SB
CF Melky Mesa: 2-5, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 K — hit the go-ahead solo homer in the 11th, his fourth dinger in his last seven games
3B Ramiro Pena: 1-5, 1 R
LHP Mike O’Connor: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 WP, 4/8 GB/FB — 54 of 89 pitches were strikes (61%)
RHP Manny Delcarmen: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 3/0 GB/FB — 28 of 55 pitches were strikes (51%)
RHP Cory Wade: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 3/0 GB/FB — 17 of 28 pitches were strikes (61%)
Update: Dellin Betances placed on DL with shoulder tendinitis
8:28pm: VP of Baseball Ops Mark Newman confirmed to Norris that Betances had an MRI and has been diagnosed with shoulder tendinitis, so at least there’s nothing structurally wrong in there.
5:30pm: The year of the pitching prospect injuries continues. Josh Norris reports that right-hander Dellin Betances has been placed on the Double-A disabled list with a sore right shoulder following last night’s four-inning, 82-pitch outing. With both Manny Banuelos and Jose Campos missing most of the season with elbow trouble, the top three pitchers on my Preseason Top 30 Prospects List have now spent time on the shelf with an arm injury this year.
Betances, 24, is in the middle of a disastrous season split between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s pitched to a 6.44 ERA in 131.1 innings, with a walk rate (6.8 BB/9 and 15.7 BB%) that is far too high and a strikeout rate (8.5 K/9 and 19.6 K%) that is well-below his previous career norms. Arm injuries are nothing new for Betances, who had Tommy John surgery in 2009 and also missed about a month with a sore shoulder in 2008. The minor league season ends in less than two weeks, so he’s probably done for the year even if the Thunder make a deep playoff run.
Thursday Night Open Thread
I was cleaning up my old bookmarks earlier today and I ran across that video, color footage of the 1939 World Series between the Yankees and Reds at Yankee Stadium. The description is in the video, but it includes the conclusion of Game One and part of Game Two, in which Monte Pearson no-hit Cincinnati for the first 7+ innings. Make sure you check it out, it’s really neat.
Once you’ve done that, use this as your open thread for the night. The baseball schedule is light, but MLB Network will air the Angels at the Red Sox (Wilson vs. Morales) and the Athletics at the Rays (Ross vs. Cobb). Who you see depends on where you live. Talk about those games or anything else here. Have at it.