River Avenue Blues

March 20th Spring Training Notes: Sevy, Wade, Montgomery, Chapman, Happ, Sabathia, Mazzilli

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The Yankees dropped this afternoon’s game to the Astros. It’s their first loss in nearly two weeks. Jonathan Holder threw two scoreless innings as the opener but did allow a lot of hard contact. The wind knocked some balls down and his defense made some nice plays. It was a deceptive two scoreless innings. Nestor Cortes allowed one unearned run in three innings and Joe Harvey allowed a run in two innings. Holder was the only projected big leaguer to pitch.

The shorthanded lineup managed only four hits on the afternoon. Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres each doubled and Luke Voit had two singles. That’s it. Gleyber drew two walks and Bird drew a walk and was hit by a pitch. Got him square in the elbow guard, fortunately. “When does it ever hit the pad, right?” he joked to Coley Harvey afterward. Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are the day’s notes from Tampa:

  • Luis Severino (shoulder) played catch today for the first time since being shut down with inflammation. He made 25 throws at 60 feet and felt good physical despite being out of sync mechanically. “I just feel a little bit off because I’ve been out for two weeks. Just in my whole body when I threw in the outfield. The mechanics, all that stuff,” he said. Severino will make 50 throws tomorrow, then rest Friday. [Marly Rivera, Bryan Hoch]
  • Tyler Wade exited this afternoon’s game with tightness in his hips and is heading back to Tampa for evaluation. He said it was precautionary and thinks it’s because he fell asleep on the bus in a weird position. “A lot of guys are hurt right now so I didn’t want to keep pushing it,” he said. [James Wagner, Lindsey Adler, David Lennon]
  • Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) has graduated from flat ground throwing. He made 25 pitches from a half-mound yesterday. How may more bullpen sessions? “Nineteen more,” he said. What happens after that? “Not sure,” he said. It is a long and lonely rehab road. [George King]
  • Gio Gonzalez will throw a bullpen session tomorrow and declared himself “ready to go” for the regular season. We’ll see whether the Yankees agree. Gonzalez added the Yankees were the only team that made him an offer over the winter. Sees normal. [Brendan Kuty, Erik Boland]
  • Aroldis Chapman threw two innings in a minor league game today and J.A. Happ threw a 33-pitch simulated game. We’ve reached the “short tune-up outing” point of Spring Training. Hooray for that. CC Sabathia will pitch in a minor league game tomorrow. [Kristie Ackert, George King]
  • Guest instructor Lee Mazzilli was hit in the head by a batted ball during batting practice today. Ouch. He was taken to the hospital and admitted for tests. Hope he’s okay. [George King]

Only four more Grapefruit League games to go! The Yankees have a road game against the Cardinals tomorrow afternoon. Domingo German is the scheduled starter. No opener this time. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.

Barring another injury, Jacoby Ellsbury will force the Yankees’ hand soon

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(Presswire)

At some point in the next month or two, the Yankees will have to make a decision on the future of Jacoby Ellsbury. His extended absence came to an end when he reported to Tampa last weekend. Although he won’t be ready for opening day, it seems like his saga is nearing an inflection point. A setback wouldn’t surprise anyone, but it’s now a real possibility that he’s healthy and ready to play relatively soon.

Of course, Ellsbury has plenty of work to do to complete his comeback. He’s just getting back to baseball activities after a long layoff, so there’s rust to shake off. He’ll also need to have his own version of spring training, meaning that he’ll probably stick around in extended camp into April. From there, he’ll likely do a full minor league rehab stint before being ready to return to the majors. That gives the team until some time in May assuming all goes well.

As long as Ellsbury stays on track, he will have all of the leverage once ready to join the big league team. He’s still owed approximately $47 million through next season, he can’t be sent to the minors, and has a no trade clause. The Yankees can’t just let him toil on the injured list, either. Sorry, a phantom injury isn’t an option. The center fielder hasn’t worked this hard to return from major surgery merely to twiddle his thumbs at home.

Oddly enough, the Yankees could actually use someone like Ellsbury if Aaron Hicks’s back woes linger. But when the team’s outfield is at full strength, Ellsbury as the fifth outfielder is a wasted roster spot. That puts the Yankees in a very tricky situation. In such a role, he’d ride the bench most of the season. I’m sure Ellsbury has too much pride to want to do something like that, and I’m sure the Yankees would much rather have a more traditional bench player. With a roster at full strength, keeping Ellsbury around would likely force Tyler Wade back to the minors.

Ellsbury almost certainly has little to no value to any of the other 29 teams in baseball. If Adam Jones got only $3 million from Arizona, what team would be take on even a portion of Ellsbury’s deal? The only way a trade could be accomplished is in a swap of bad contracts. Even then, though, there would be a significant hurdle with Ellsbury’s no trade clause. Maybe he’d accept a deal to a team out west, where he’s from and currently resides. But he doesn’t have to. If another club really wants him, they can just wait until the Yankees have no choice but to cut Ellsbury.

This all leads down one path: releasing him. It’s the best option for all parties involved. There’s no need to be stubborn by keeping him on the bench. He deserves a chance to play somewhere else if the Yankees don’t want him. I don’t think it makes much sense to obtain another hefty contract in exchange for Ellsbury, especially if it’s going to be a stretch to roster said acquisition.

The Yankees have undoubtedly been happy to claw back some of Ellsbury’s contract via insurance, but that gravy train appears to be ending. Sure, Ellsbury could have some sort of setback, but the team can’t count on it. If and when he’s ready to go, whether that be some time in late April or later this season, it’ll be time to cut him loose. There’s no need to try to make this marriage work.

The Overqualified Sixth and Seventh Relievers [2019 Season Preview]

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Holder. (Presswire)

On paper, the Yankees have a comically deep bullpen with three or four (or five?) relievers who would qualify as the best reliever on a not insignificant number of other teams. Things don’t always play out the way they look on paper, that’s just baseball, but the Yankees have clearly assembled an enviable collection of bullpen arms going in 2019.

New York’s bullpen is so stacked that Jonathan Holder is, at best, sixth on the reliever depth chart, and Tommy Kahnle isn’t even assured an Opening Day roster spot. I think it’s highly likely he’ll make the team, especially now that Dellin Betances is hurt, but the fact it is not completely set in stone is pretty bonkers. This guy was one of the top relievers in the game two years ago.

Assuming Kahnle makes the roster, he and Holder are behind Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, and Chad Green in the bullpen pecking order (once Betances returns). That makes them overqualified sixth and seventh relievers. Fortunately there’s no such thing as too many good relievers. Let’s preview their 2019 seasons.

Jonathan Holder

In a bullpen loaded with big velocity, Holder is an outlier. His fastball averaged 93.0 mph last season and topped out at 95.4 mph. His max velocity was comfortably below Chapman’s (99.2 mph) and Betances’ (98.2 mph) average velocity. Holder is a kitchen sink guy who broke out last year after completely shelving his cutter and curveball, and leaning on his slider and changeup.

The end result was a 3.14 ERA (3.04 FIP) with an average-ish number of strikeouts (22.0%) and few walks (7.0%) or grounders (29.3%) in 66 innings. Holder almost certainly has some home run rate regression coming his way this year. Last year’s ground ball rate won’t usually produce a 0.55 HR/9 (4.2% HR/FB) rate when you play your home games in Yankee Stadium. Something has to give. Either more grounders or more homers are coming.

Based on the current bullpen layout, it sure seems like Holder will inherit Adam Warren’s old role as the super utility reliever. The jack of all trades, Swiss Army knife reliever. He’ll be asked to keep the game close when the Yankees are trailing, throw multiple innings on occasion, and fill in as a high-leverage guy when others aren’t available. That was Warren’s role and he was very, very good at it. Now Holder is the obvious heir apparent.

Holder and Warren are similar in that both have starter’s repertoires and resilient arms, allowing them to remain effective on back-to-back days and deep into the season. Holder doesn’t have a starter’s stamina — the Yankees tried him as a starter in the minors in 2015 and gave up on it after one year because his stuff backed up so much — but he won’t need it in relief. If he can go two innings at a time, maaaaybe three on occasion, that’s enough.

Another possibility: Holder as an opener. He started a game last September, though that was a traditional bullpen game and not an opener situation. Holder is opening today’s Grapefruit League game after Green opened yesterday’s game, so this is something the Yankees are considering, and Holder is apparently a candidate to open games. This is likely a better use of his skills than being the sixth option in the late innings, you know?

The Yankees clearly like Holder — they added him to the 40-man roster a year early so he could throw 8.1 low-leverage innings in September 2016 — and the way he overhauled his approach in the middle of last season shows he has the aptitude to make adjustments, which is an obvious plus. In any other year, I feel like we’d be awfully excited about Holder’s upcoming season. In this bullpen, he kinda gets lost in the shuffle.

Unfortunately for Holder, he has a minor league option remaining (two, actually) and is pretty much the team’s only reliever who can easily be sent down. I reckon he’ll experience an undeserved trip to Triple-A Scranton at some point this season in the name of roster flexibility. It certainly would not be the first time that’s happened. Such is life for a cheap, optionable reliever in the era of bullpen shuttles.

Holder is a reliever without a clearly defined role at the moment, though those things tend to sort themselves out, and having a guy like him as you sixth best reliever is a big luxury. The home run regression might be ugly — that potential trip to Scranton might not be so undeserved after all! — but Holder has the tools and the pitching know-how to be  successful big leaguer. He may be far down the depth chart now. Given the way these things usually play out, the Yankees will undoubtedly need Holder to get some important outs this season.

Tommy Kahnle

Kahnle. (Presswire)

Last season was a total mess for Kahnle. His velocity was down early, he spent a few weeks on the disabled list, and when he returned he intentionally gained weight in an effort to rediscover some velocity. When it was all said and done, Kahnle threw 23.1 big league innings with a 6.56 ERA (4.19 FIP) and 24.2 Triple-A innings with a 4.01 ERA (2.85 FIP). He walked 12.1% of all batters he faced. It was bad. Bad bad bad.

“I’m voiding last year. If I think about that I won’t be able to do anything now,” Kahnle said to Lindsey Adler (subs. req’d) recently. He reported to camp in noticeably better shape — Kahnle told Adler he’s given up the two coffees and five Red Bulls he used to drink every single day, which is kinda bonkers — and based on our limited looks during televised Grapefruit League games, he appears to be throwing much more free and easy, and with more velocity.

“Really exciting. That’s the best I’ve seen him throw since I’ve been here,” Aaron Boone said to Brendan Kuty after one of Kahnle’s early spring outings. “… He didn’t have to work to generate the velocity. I thought life in the zone was really good. He executed some changeups. He threw a good slider in there last night. But the way the ball is coming out for him, I know he really feels good about it and he should. That was exciting to see.”

Two years ago Kahnle threw 62.2 innings with a 2.59 ERA (1.83 FIP) and outstanding strikeout (37.5%) and walk (6.6%) rates. He wasn’t pretty good, he was great. Maybe getting Kahnle back to that level isn’t a realistic goal. How many relievers can do that year after year? What about Holder level production though? ERA and FIP in the low-3s with a few more strikeouts. Is that unreasonable? Maybe it is given how bad he looked last year.

Clearly, velocity matters a lot to Kahnle. Hitters were noticeably more comfortable in the box and with their swings when he was 94-95 mph rather than 98-99 mph. Kahnle has been mostly 95-96 mph on the television radar gun this spring, which comes with the caveat that it is the television gun, but it is encouraging to see bigger numbers already. Pitchers usually don’t reach their max velocity until a few weeks into the regular season, once the weather warms up.

What will Kahnle’s role be this season? Geez, hard to tell right now. Even with Betances out, there are at least three guys ahead of him on the setup depth chart (Britton, Green Ottavino) and my guess is Holder would get high-leverage work ahead of Kahnle until Kahnle shows he’s back to his 2017 self (or thereabouts) and trustworthy in important situations. I think things will be touch and go with Kahnle for the first few weeks of the season. A defined role may be a ways off.

It’s worth noting Kahnle, unlike Holder, is out of minor league options. He has to pass through waivers to go to the minors and I don’t see him clearing. He’s cheap ($1.387M this year) and under control through 2021, and he is only one season removed from the last time he was very effective. In a vacuum, wouldn’t you want the Yankees to claim a guy like that? The Yankees would sooner trade him given the likelihood of losing him for nothing on waivers.

Kahnle has thrown the ball well this spring and that was a prerequisite for making the Opening Day roster. Being out of options helps his case but only goes so far. Kahnle had to perform at least a little bit, and it’s encouraging that his velocity is up a bit and that he doesn’t have to put everything he has into each pitch to get to that velocity. I don’t know what Kahnle’s role will be this year, but I do know he’s an x-factor. Getting something close to 2017 Kahnle would make the bullpen that much deeper and that much more dangerous.

Spring Training Game Thread: Another Opener

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(Presswire)

Over the last few weeks Aaron Boone has gone from “you don’t envision that” to “I would expect there is a good chance” when asked about possibly using an opener this season. Due to injuries, something that wasn’t in the cards is now a very real possibility. Chad Green opened yesterday’s game — “I think I warmed up a little bit too early. That will be something I have to figure out,” he said to George King — and today it is Jonathan Holder’s turn.

With Dellin Betances out, the Yankees will need Green in the late innings maybe a little more than expected out of the gate, making Holder the most obvious candidate to be an opener. Something tells me Stephen Tarpley might get a shot at opening a game before the Grapefruit League lets out as well. We’ll see. Here is the Astros’ lineup and here are the players the Yankees sent on the 200-mile bus trip to West Palm Beach for today’s game:

  1. SS Gleyber Torres
  2. 3B Miguel Andujar
  3. 1B Luke Voit
  4. DH Greg Bird
  5. C Gary Sanchez
  6. RF Clint Frazier
  7. CF Tyler Wade
  8. 2B Thairo Estrada
  9. LF Billy Burns

RHP Jonathan Holder

Available Position Players: C Francisco Diaz, C Ryan Lavarnway, C Jorge Saez, 1B Ryan McBroom, IF Angel Aguilar, IF Thairo Estrada, IF Kyle Holder, IF Gosuke Katoh, IF Gio Urshela, OF Trey Amburgey, OF Jeff Hendrix, OF Matt Lipka, OF Zack Zehner. McBroom, Aguilar, Estrada, Katoh, Amburgey, Hendrix, and Zehner are up from minor league camp for the road trip.

Available Pitchers: LHP Rex Brothers, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Cale Coshow, LHP Danny Coulombe, LHP Phil Diehl, RHP Raynel Espinal, RHP Joe Harvey, RHP Domingo German, LHP Justin Kamplain, LHP James Reeves, LHP Anderson Severino, LHP Stephen Tarpley. Coshow, Harvey, Kamplain, Reeves, and (not related to Luis) Severino are the extra arms up from minor league camp.

The Yankees are on the other side of Florida today and tomorrow, so many of those players are staying overnight rather than making the long bus trip back and forth. I’m not sure who’s coming off the bench or out of the bullpen today. I do know German is starting tomorrow though, so we won’t see him this afternoon. The rest will be a surprise.

It is kinda cloudy, kinda warm, kinda humid, and kinda windy in West Palm Beach today. There is no rain in the forecast though, and that’s all that matters. Today’s game will begin at 1:05pm ET and you can watch live on MLB Network and MLB.tv. MLB Network will show the game in the Yankees’ home market and there are no MLB.tv blackouts in Spring Training. Enjoy the game.

Using CC Sabathia’s suspension to gain another roster spot for five games

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(Presswire)

When the regular season begins next week, CC Sabathia will not be with the Yankees. Actually, no, let me rephrase that. Sabathia will not be an active player when the regular season begins next week. I’d bet on him being introduced alongside his teammates at Yankee Stadium during his final Opening Day next week. Can’t see Sabathia missing that.

After Opening Day, Sabathia figures to head back to Tampa to continue what is essentially his Spring Training. He got a late start on things because his December heart surgery delayed his offseason throwing, so he reported to camp behind other pitchers. Sabathia threw his second simulated game this past weekend and is expected to join the Yankees sometime in mid-April.

Because he won’t be ready until a few weeks into the season, the Yankees will stash Sabathia on the injured list for the time being. He also has to serve a five-game suspension stemming from the “That’s for you, bitch” incident last year. It was announced at the time that Sabathia would appeal the suspension, but there has been no follow-up. Very weird. Until we hear otherwise, I assume it’s still a five-game ban.

Last week Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch the Yankees are leaning toward carrying Sabathia on the Opening Day active roster to get the suspension out of the way. He can’t serve the suspension while on the injured list (that’s for performance-enhancing drug suspensions only) and the Yankees have to play with a 24-man roster during the suspension. They’re leaning suspension then injured list over injured list then suspension.

Given the early season schedule, it makes the most sense to get the suspension out of the way early. The Yankees could use the suspension to effectively buy an extra roster spot. Specifically, they could send Domingo German to Triple-A at the end of Spring Training, then call him up to start the sixth game of the regular season. This would be the rotation schedule:

  • March 28th vs. Orioles: Masahiro Tanaka
  • March 29th: OFF
  • March 30th vs. Orioles: James Paxton
  • March 31st vs. Orioles: J.A. Happ
  • April 1st vs. Tigers: Luis Cessa (presumably)
  • April 2nd vs. Tigers: Tanaka on normal rest
  • April 3rd vs. Tigers: Domingo German (Sabathia’s suspension ends)

German has a fourth option and can be sent down, and because Sabathia will be placed on the injured list following the suspension, it allows the Yankees to recall German before he spends the requisite ten days in the minors. German doesn’t even have to physically go to Scranton. He can be part of the baseline introductions on Opening Day and hang with the team until being activated.

Sending German down allows the Yankees to carry four starters, eight relievers, and three bench players while Sabathia serves his suspension. The other option is carrying German on the roster and having five starters, and either seven relievers and three bench players, or eight relievers and two bench players. Neither of those is ideal. The Yankees would rather have the full complement of relievers and bench players.

The other option is carrying German as the eighth reliever. Keep him in the bullpen those first five games as a long man, and, if he’s not needed, start him in the sixth game and call up another reliever to fill Sabathia’s roster spot after the suspension is over. And, if German is needed in long relief, the Yankees could call up someone else to make that start in the sixth game (Jonathan Loaisiga?) before German joins the rotation the next time around.

Carrying German as the eighth reliever is a viable option — I think it’s what the Yankees will most likely do, especially with Dellin Betances now hurt — but I don’t love it. Those “he’s going to start this day if we don’t need him in long relief first” situations always seem to result in the Yankees trying to stay away from the guy so he can start. I’d rather send German down for the five games and carry eight relievers Aaron Boone can use without worrying what it does to his rotation, you know?

Losing a roster spot for five games during Sabathia’s suspension isn’t a huge deal. He’s a starting pitcher, so it’s not like he plays between starts anyway, plus there’s an off-day squeezed into the five-game span. Getting the suspension out of the way early allows the Yankees to manipulate their roster and use Sabathia’s injured list assignment to bring back a recently optioned player, in this case German, who could then start the sixth game of the year and allow the Yankees to carry a full bullpen and bench during the suspension. They wouldn’t be shorthanded despite a 24-man roster.

The Yankees did not have a starter throw 100 pitches until their 20th game last year and that was by design. They eased everyone into the season and I assume the same will be true this year, which means they’re going to want a full bullpen in the early going. Sabathia’s suspension and injured list stint allows them to carry eight relievers and three bench players, and delay calling up their fifth starter until the sixth game. It’s the best of a not great situation.

March 19th Spring Training Notes: Betances, Hicks, Gregorius, Gonzalez

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The Yankees beat the Rays this afternoon. I didn’t realize this until it was mentioned on the YES Network broadcast, but the Yankees have the best Spring Training record in baseball at 15-6-4. They haven’t lost a game since March 8th. Huh. Anyway, Greg Bird hit a home run today and Gary Sanchez had two nearly identical rocket doubles into the right-center field gap. Giancarlo Stanton doubled down the line and Aaron Judge picked up his first single of 2019. I was kinda hoping to see him get through the entire spring with extra-base hits only. Alas.

Chad Green allowed one run on two hits in his one inning as the opener thanks in part to a Judge error. “If it comes up during the year, let’s prepare for it now so it’s not anything new for us when the games start,” said Green to Erik Boland when asked about being an opener. Aaron Boone told Jack Curry there is a “good chance” they’ll use an opener at some point this year. Luis Cessa followed Green and was excellent, allowing two hits and striking out five in four scoreless innings. He’s had a great spring (17 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 18 K). Here are the box score and video highlights, and here are today’s notes:

  • In case you missed it earlier, Dellin Betances will begin the regular season on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. That explains the missing velocity. Betances said he’s “not too concerned” and added he will resume throwing in 3-5 days. [Coley Harvey]
  • Aaron Hicks (back) said he is pain-free following the second cortisone shot. That’s good news, but Hicks said he was also pain-free following the first shot, and it wasn’t until he tried to swing a bat that it bothered him. Hicks said he’s been diagnosed with muscular “chronic back pain,” which is better than a spinal issue. [James Wagner, Lindsey Adler]
  • Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) has graduated to hitting off a tee. He is two or three weeks away from hitting a baseball that actually moves. “It’s been way better than expected. There have been no problems,” he said. So far, so good. [George King]
  • The recently signed Gio Gonzalez arrived in camp today. “Wearing pinstripes for the first time is pretty exciting. I never thought in my wildest dreams I’d be a Yankee,” he said. Gonzalez threw 88 pitches in a simulated game yesterday and won’t get into a Grapefruit League game until this weekend. [Jon Heyman, Brendan Kuty]

The Yankees will make the long road trip across the state to play the Astros tomorrow afternoon. Jonathan Holder will be the opener for that game. I have no idea who is coming out of the bullpen after him. It won’t be Masahiro Tanaka (started yesterday), James Paxton or Jonathan Loaisiga (started Sunday’s split squad games), J.A. Happ (started Saturday), or Domingo German (starting Thursday). I guess it’ll be a surprise. Tomorrow’s game will be televised live.

Dellin Betances to begin regular season on injured list with shoulder inflammation

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(Presswire)

Add another injured Yankee to the list. Brian Cashman announced today that Dellin Betances will begin the regular season on the injured list with an impingement and inflammation in his shoulder. He had an MRI earlier today and was given anti-inflammatories. Cashman called it a “time out” more than a complete shutdown like Luis Severino, but he didn’t give a timetable for Dellin’s return.

Here’s what Cashman about the Betances injury (via Brendan Kuty):

“It’s like he’s working against himself, is what we think he’s doing now. He’s trying to force things through and it’s causing more inflammation and it’s preventing him from being fully loose and engaged and we need to call time out. It’s as simple as that. We feel it’s resolvable. Our worry is only that we don’t have him from the beginning. There’s not a worry past that. Unfortunately, since Opening Day is coming, there’s always that feeling that everything has to be perfect or everybody has to be ready to go or in play. We’ve been around long enough to know it doesn’t have to be that way and it shouldn’t be that way. What we need to do is make sure we have him right.”

Betances, 31 this weekend, reported to Spring Training a few days late following the birth of his son, and he’s been playing catch-up ever since. He is typically a slow starter velocity-wise but it has been way down this month — his six fastballs in his most recent outing checked in at 89, 88, 89, 90, 92, and 90 mph — and the Yankees finally got him to admit he doesn’t feel quite right.

A shoulder injury is never good news and Betances did miss time with a shoulder problem in the minors way back in the day. If there’s a silver lining here, it’s that the Yankees have plenty of depth in the bullpen. Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, and Chad Green is a pretty darn good setup trio ahead of closer Aroldis Chapman. I imagine Stephen Tarpley’s chances of making the team just went way up.

The Yankees have held contract extension talks with several players in recent weeks and Betances, an impending free agent, is reportedly among them. My guess is those talks will be put on hold now. The Yankees presumably want to see Betances healthy and throwing like himself before committing multiple years and eight-figures to a soon-to-be 31-year-old reliever.

With this news, the Yankees will now have four members of their projected Opening Day roster start the season on the injured list: Betances (shoulder), Severino (shoulder), CC Sabathia (knee), and Aaron Hicks (back). Good grief. Sabathia and Hicks are expected back relatively soon. Severino is looking at an early-May return and who knows with Betances right now.