NY Yankees News, Information & Community

Estevan Florial and what he needs to improve to develop into a truly elite prospect

January 7, 2019 by Mike

MLB teams are developing young players better than ever. We’re seeing kids come up from the minors and have an immediate impact much more often than in the past. Consider that, in the 2010s, there have been 188 rookies who put up a +2 WAR season. There’s still one year to go in the 2010s too. Only 174 did it in the 2000s and only 145 did it in the 1990s. Teams are quite good at player development.

That includes the Yankees, of course. Within the last few years their farm system has produced Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and others. That’s the foundation of a 100-win ballclub right there. The farm system isn’t as strong as it was two years ago, but that’s okay. Just about all the top prospects are now productive big leaguers. Others were used in trades for MLB help. That’s what a farm system’s for.

The best prospect remaining in the Yankees’ farm system is center fielder Estevan Florial, who is a year removed from an excellent season. In 476 mostly Single-A plate appearances, Florial hit .298/.372/.479 (145 wRC+) as a 19-year-old in 2017. Here is the wRC+ leaderboard for teenage outfielders in 2017 (min. 400 plate appearances to remove short season ball players):

Ronald Acuna, Braves: 155 wRC+
Estevan Florial, Yankees: 145 wRC+
Taylor Trammell, Reds: 131 wRC+
Jesus Sanchez, Rays: 130 wRC+
Khalil Lee, Royals: 125 wRC+

There’s Acuna in his own little tier, Florial in his own little tier, then everyone else. Statistically, Florial had a crazy impressive 2017 season. His 2018 season did not go as well. He authored a .255/.354/.361 (110 wRC+) batting line in 339 High-A plate appearances, which is quite good for a 20-year-old in a vacuum, but is below expectations given what Florial did a year ago. We were all expecting a little more.

A fractured hamate bone and subsequent surgery split Florial’s season into two. He missed close to two months and his High-A numbers before the injury (107 wRC+ in 156 plate appearances) were not significantly different than his High-A numbers after the injury (112 wRC+ in 183 plate appearances). Florial did absolutely annihilate rookie ball during his rehab assignment (330 wRC+ in nine games), which I guess is cool, but it is only nine games.

Florial turned 21 in November and he’ll head into 2019 as both the top prospect in the farm system and also a player looking to rebound from a difficult season. It’s tough to know how much the wrist injury impacted his performance. Chances are he played through some discomfort before finally having the surgery, and wrist surgery is notorious for sapping a player’s power even after he’s deemed healthy and ready for game action.

“It’s tough. He’s a young, highly physically talented athlete that’s honing his craft, and then he got taken offline,” said Brian Cashman to Brendan Kuty last month. “I know our development people were feeling that he’s starting to unlock certain keys that were going to take him to another level and then boom, the injury hit and took him offline completely. When you do these hamate surgeries and you take off, you’re usually not … back to full strength until a year later.”

Florial is not lacking natural ability. He’s a high-end athlete and a physical specimen at 6-foot-1 and 185 pounds. He can run, he can throw, and the ball jumps off his bat. You don’t see many 19-year-olds driving balls over the fence to the opposite field like this:

Florial lacks two things right now. One is good health. He’ll be nine months out from wrist surgery when Spring Training opens next month and hopefully that means he’ll be fully recovered. Wrist trouble can linger a bit, even through an offseason of rest. If it does, there’s not much the Yankees and Florial can do other than wait until the strength in the wrist is all the way back.

The second is pitch recognition. Florial has walked a good deal in his career to date (11.1% walk rate), but minor league walk rates are notoriously fickle, and that is especially true the further away you get from the big leagues. There are a lot of pitchers in rookie ball and Single-A ball who are chucking the ball from the mound and hoping it’s over the plate. A good deal of them can’t throw three strikes before they throw four balls.

Pitch recognition though, the ability to discern a fastball from a slider, a grooved heater from a changeup, a curveball in the zone from a curveball that’ll spike in the dirt, that’s what Florial must improve. He’s struck out in 27.3% of his career plate appearances and, in the Arizona Fall League this year, advanced pitchers picked him apart. Here’s what a scout told Randy Miller in October:

“I’m seeing what I’ve seen in the past at the plate. He’s still swinging and missing. He’s chasing bad pitches out of the zone, especially late in counts. When he gets in pitchers’ counts, he’s chasing the pitchers’ out pitches … As Florial gets older, he’ll figure out how guys are pitching him and he’ll learn to lay off pitches.”

Pitch recognition is the great separator. Hitters who can discern pitches thrive and those who can’t often struggle. A lack of pitch recognition is not a total dealbreaker — guys like Jeff Francoeur and Jose Guillen had long MLB careers despite seemingly having no idea what pitchers were trying to do to them — but it is a significant obstacle. A lack of pitch recognition has prevented countless talented players from reaching their ceiling.

Although the overall numbers were underwhelming, it is encouraging Florial cut his strikeout rate (27.6% to 25.7%) and swing-and-miss rate (16.8% to 13.1%) as he jumped from Low-A to High-A this past season. It suggests (but does not confirm) pitch recognition improvement. It’s one of those things that is difficult to see statistically, if it is possible at all. You need to watch at-bats and read swings to evaluate pitch recognition.

Florial is a four-tool player and the one tool he’s missing is consistent contact ability. Plate discipline and pitch recognition are a part of that. Generally speaking, Florial can tell a ball from a strike. His issues are with telling a fastball from a breaking ball, things like that. That “four-tool player and the one he’s missing is contact” profile is dangerous. It’s more likely to produce Drew Stubbs than Christian Yelich, you know?

No prospect is truly a can’t miss, but Florial is less of a can’t miss than Torres or Judge or Sanchez, if that makes sense. He’s loaded with natural ability and that’s great. Give me tools and athleticism. He also has some very real flaws to correct, specifically with his pitch recognition, and that’ll determine whether he develops into a legitimate core piece or just an okay complementary player. At 21, he has time to improve all aspects of his game, and this season I hope to see more contact and more overall refinement in Florial’s game.

“We’re excited to see what he’s going to do as he takes his steps,” Cashman added. “His makeup … is just fantastic. He’s really smart and obviously physically gifted. So we have high hopes for him. But he’s young and he’s raw. He’s got time to put in still.”

Thoughts after the Yankees re-sign Zach Britton

January 7, 2019 by Mike

After weeks and weeks of rumors, the Yankees have finally added to their bullpen. Over the weekend they agreed to re-sign Zach Britton to a unique two-year contract. The deal includes a two-year club option and a one-year player option, and can reportedly max out at $53M. Prepare to see more lefty hellsinkers in the Bronx. Here are some thoughts on the deal.

1. The Yankees let the reliever I wanted them to re-sign walk and re-signed the reliever I wanted them to let walk. Between contract projections and expected performance, I thought David Robertson was the best free agent reliever on the market this offseason. Two days into the offseason I said re-signing Robertson was a no-brainer. You have to really squint your eyes and nitpick to see any signs of decline and, well, negotiating against a player without an agent was bound to result in a team friendly contract, and that’s exactly what happened. Robertson (two years and a club option) received a lower average annual value than Britton (two years that could become four years) and Andrew Miller (two years with a vesting option), and likely lower than Adam Ottavino. I mean, come on, does anyone really think Britton at his contract is a better deal than Robertson at his contract? Not a chance. I know it’s not that simple — who says Robertson would’ve taken the same deal from the Yankees? — but gosh, even ignoring contracts, give me the durable high strikeout reliever who aced every “can he handle New York and the postseason?” test you could conjure up. It is my opinion that the Yankees signed the inferior reliever to a larger contract. They’re better today than they were at this time last week. They’re also not as good as they could’ve been.

2. That all said, Britton isn’t bad. I expect him to be comfortably above-average this coming season and probably also in 2020 as well. We almost certainly will never see 2014-16 Zach Britton again because no one maintains that level of dominance long-term, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective part of a championship caliber bullpen. Three things give me pause. One, he’s had some notable injuries the last two years, specifically two bouts with forearm tightness in 2017 and the blown Achilles last winter. Two, he went from a 30.2% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate from 2015-16 to a 19.1% strikeout rate and a 11.8% walk rate from 2017-18. Not exactly an encouraging trend! This seems bad:

And three, Britton is essentially a one-pitch guy. It is a great pitch, Britton has arguably the best sinker in baseball, but I worry about its effectiveness as he loses velocity and maybe also some movement with age. Does he have enough other weapons to compensate? Aroldis Chapman started to emphasize his slider last season and remained very effective, so perhaps Britton can do the same. Chapman threw his slider much more throughout his career than Britton has thrown his curveball though, and I’m not sure his curve can be as effective as Chapman’s slider. Much like the J.A. Happ re-signing, the Britton re-signing is fine but I am a little underwhelmed. I thought Robertson and Ottavino offered similar expected performance with greater overall upside because they miss so many more bats. Happ over Patrick Corbin, Britton over Robertson or Ottavino, Troy Tulowitzki over an infielder who’s been good more recently than 2016. The Yankees did fine but I can’t help but feel like they could’ve done better.

3. The other thing that worries me with Britton is his reliance on ground balls. In the launch angle era, ground balls are great. They help reduce homers. Britton has an excellent sinker and, while he hasn’t been Zach effin’ Britton the last two years, his 72.8% ground ball rate last season is as good as it gets. We have reliable batted ball data going back to 2002. Here are the top six ground ball seasons since then (min. 30 innings):

2016 Zach Britton: 80.0%
2015 Zach Britton: 79.1%
2012 Brad Ziegler: 75.5%
2014 Zach Britton: 75.3%
2017 Scott Alexander: 73.8%
2018 Zach Britton: 73.0%

2017 Zach Britton is ninth at 72.6%. Clearly, Britton’s sinker and ground ball ability are elite skills, and that was true the last two years even while his strikeout and walk rates went in the wrong direction. Ground balls are good. Strikeouts are better, but ground ball are good. My concern here is that the Yankees’ infield defense, as presently constituted, stinks. Miguel Andujar and Luke Voit are butchers on the corners, Gleyber Torres was error prone last season, and you’ll have to forgive me for not having high hopes for present day Tulowitzki. The Yankees could still improve their infield defense between now and Opening Day. I’m just not sure it’ll happen. And now they’re locked into a reliever who needs a good infield defense because he lives and dies with ground balls. Hopefully the Yankees improve their infield defense or can at least mitigate the potential damage with shifts and good positioning, otherwise things could get ugly at times.

4. For the sixth time in the last seven months, the Yankees have acquired a pitcher who throws a high percentage of fastballs. Britton has thrown his sinker more than 90% of the time since moving to the bullpen permanently in 2014. Here are the top five fastball usage rates among starters last season:

Lance Lynn: 88.9% (acquired at the deadline)
James Paxton: 81.5% (acquired in the offseason)
David Price: 74.9%
Jon Lester: 74.8%
J.A. Happ: 73.3% (acquired at the deadline then re-signed in the offseason)

Counting the Happ trade and the Happ re-signing as two separate transactions, and the Britton trade and the Britton re-signing as two separate transactions, that’s six times the Yankees have brought in an extreme fastball pitcher since last July. The Yankees as a team threw only 47.5% fastballs last season, the lowest rate in baseball. Now they’re apparently hoarding fastball guys. Coincidence? Probably not at this point, though it is curious they’ve shifted to the other extreme. They’ve gone from no fastballs to all fastballs, basically. I think the Happ trade and Lynn trade were as much about the market as their skills, if not more. The Yankees needed starters at the deadline and those two were available, so they got them. Same with Britton. He was the best rental reliever on the market so the Yankees got him. Maybe after bringing those guys in at the deadline the Yankees came to the conclusion that variety is good and not everyone needs the organizational stamp? Or maybe they were never as married to the anti-fastball philosophy as it appeared? Whatever it is, I find it pretty fascinating the Yankees have had a clearly defined pitching strategy in place the last few years — the numbers don’t lie, they the Yankees haven’t thrown many fastballs the last two seasons — and are now going in the complete opposite direction. A game of adjustments, it is.

“Wait, don’t throw fastballs???” (Elsa/Getty)

5. I figured it was only a matter of time until the Yankees signed someone to the Yusei Kikuchi/Jake Arrieta contract structure. I just didn’t think it would happen this soon. I’m kinda mad at myself for not realizing Britton is a Scott Boras client and connecting the dots sooner. Britton gets two years with a two-year club option and a one-year player option, which means one of three things will happen:

Britton is good: Four years and $53M
Britton is bad: Three years and $39M
Britton is okay: Two years and $26M

If Britton pitches well the next two years, the Yankees will pick up the club option. If Britton pitches poorly the next two years, the Yankees will decline the club option and he’ll pick up the player option. If he’s somewhere in the middle, well, that’s where it gets interesting. For Britton to reenter free agency in two years he’ll have to pitch well enough to be confident he can beat the $13M player option on the open market — he doesn’t have to beat $13M annually, just $13M total (two years and $20M would work, for example) — but not well enough to convince the Yankees to exercise the club option. Seems like the needle would have to be threaded perfectly for that to happen. Good enough to get a nice free agent contract but not good enough for the Yankees to keep him around. These new contracts are going to lead to some very interesting option decisions in the coming years. I wonder if we’ll see any unintended consequences along the way.

6. The most important number with Britton’s contract: $13M. That is his luxury tax hit the next two seasons. My quick math puts the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at approximately $210M for the coming season, which is over the $206M threshold. For what it’s worth, Cot’s has them at $207.2M, but my number includes estimates for in-season injury/September call-ups (based on last year). Either way, the Yankees are over the luxury tax threshold. Will they stay there? That’s the big question. Sonny Gray has a projected $9.1M salary for 2019 and he feels destined to wear another uniform at some point, possibly soon. Trading Gray and the bulk of his salary puts the Yankees right back under the luxury tax threshold. I am a luxury tax skeptic. I’ll believe the Yankees will go over (and stay over) the threshold when the pieces make it clear it will happen. Going $4M over to sign Britton when Gray hasn’t been traded yet isn’t enough convince me they’ll stay over. I think one of two things will happen. Either the Yankees will manage to sign Manny Machado and go clear over the luxury tax threshold (and probably into the second penalty tier), or Machado will go elsewhere, and the Yankees will work to get back under the threshold (i.e. trade Gray). Or at least get as close to the threshold as possible to reduce the penalty. Hopefully I’m wrong and the Yankees will continue to spend and exceed the threshold. Right now, I’m still skeptical, even though Britton pushed them over the threshold ever so slightly. He pushed them over, but not so much that it can’t be corrected with one quick move (i.e. trade Gray).

7. The Yankees should continue to spend, of course. Sign Bryce Harper, sign Machado, sign Ottavino, sign another infielder. Sign ’em all. It’s not going to happen though. Harper and Machado are special cases in their own little universe. In the real world, it is not unreasonable to believe the Yankees should add another reliever because, right now, they are one David Robertson short of the bullpen they had the last two months of last year. This is the projected Opening Day bullpen at the moment:

Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Setup: Dellin Betances, Zach Britton
Middle: Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle (out-of-options)
Long: Luis Cessa (out-of-options)
Depth: Chance Adams, Domingo German, Joe Harvey, Jonathan Loaisiga, Stephen Tarpley

The Yankees are a three-man bench/eight-man bullpen team now and, based on the above, there is still an open bullpen spot. It could be a revolving door spot. You know how it is, right? Guys go up and down as needed throughout the year, due to injury or workload or whatever. Or that spot could go to another top reliever like Ottavino or Kelvin Herrera, someone to effectively replace Robertson as a high-leverage guy. That turns the Kahnle and/or Cessa spots into revolving doors and I’m totally cool with that. The more bullpen depth the better. Right now, as good as the bullpen looks, it’s worse on paper than it was at the end of last season because Robertson has not been adequately replaced. The Yankees really should splurge on Ottavino or Herrera or someone else capable of high-leverage work. I think it’s a necessity more than a luxury.

8. Speaking of the bullpen construction, what are the roles now? The Yankees love their bullpen roles. They used them under Joe Girardi and they continued to use them under Aaron Boone. Chapman’s the closer so he’ll be saved for the ninth inning. Dellin Betances is the eighth inning guy until further notice. I guess that makes Britton the seventh inning guy? And Green fills in the gaps as necessary? I’d love love love to see Betances and Britton used in a setup man platoon. Betances faces the tough righties and Britton faces the tough lefties, regardless of whether they’re due to bat in the seventh or eighth inning. That’d be ideal. At this point though, it’s probably not going to happen. Everything the Yankees have done the last few years — across two separate managers at that — indicates they’ll have a clearly defined seventh, eighth, and ninth inning relievers. Whatever. When you have this many good relievers, chances are the Yankees will have someone qualified on the mound in the game’s biggest moment in the late innings. The Yankees will miss Robertson in his fireman role. I firmly believe that. Entering into a jam and strikeout-ing his way out of it. That was Robertson’s thing. I’m not sure who does that now. Green? Maybe. Britton is too reliant on ground balls. Runners can steal on Betances, making him a less than ideal candidate to enter with men on base. This’ll probably sort itself out. The Yankees do love their defined bullpen roles and I expect that to continue, and I’m glad Britton is willing to pitch in any role. He’s unselfish and doesn’t need to close. That’s an obvious plus.

9. Alright, so what’s the 40-man roster move? I think it’s down Ben Heller, Tim Locastro, or Kyle Higashioka. Among those three, Higashioka is probably most secure. He’s an optionable third catcher and that’s a useful piece. Dumping catching depth should be a last resort and the Yankees aren’t there yet. Locastro is a speedy utility guy and the Yankees gave up an actual player (Drew Finley) to get him, which indicates they like him enough. It wasn’t a cash trade or a waiver claim. They gave up a recent third round pick. I think that pushes Heller to the front of the line. He is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and, at this point, keeping the healthy fringe big league arms (Cessa, Kahnle) over the injured fringe big league arm (Heller) makes the most sense. I’m still surprised the Yankees didn’t pull the non-tender/re-sign to minor league deal move with Heller, though I suppose he could’ve indicated he wasn’t willing to cooperate, and the Yankees weren’t ready to cut him loose. At this point though, given the 40-man roster situation, I think Heller is most likely to go to make room for Britton. Now prepare for it to be someone else entirely.

Fan Confidence Poll: January 7th, 2019

January 7, 2019 by Mike

2018 Regular Season Record: 100-62 (851 RS, 669 RA, 98-64 expected record), second in ALE
2018 Postseason Record: 2-3 (22 RS, 29 RA), won WC Game, lost ALDS

Keeping the Bronx Sonny

January 6, 2019 by Matt Imbrogno

In the course of our lives, there are many pills we’ll need to swallow. Some are easy, some are hard, and some have to do with baseball. It might be time for the Yankees to swallow a pill I (mildly, tepidly) prescribed last month: the Yankees should keep Sonny Gray.

Given what GM Brian Cashman said about Gray after the end of the season, there will certainly need to be some fence-mending between the two. But if all that really matters is baseball and winning baseball games, it likely best serves the Bombers to keep the embattled righty. In fact, it’s easy to argue that Cashman’s comments have affected the market for Gray.

There have been fairly steady reports of interest in Gray for a while, but there doesn’t seem to be any fire paired with this apparent smoke. Maybe teams are still waiting for the big dominoes to fall, but the teams connected to Gray are not likely in on the Manny Machado and/or Bryce Harper sweepstakes. Additionally, if the Yankees wanted so badly to move on from Gray, it’s doubtful that their pursuit of Machado would delay jettisoning Gray (unless their plan is to trade Miguel Andujar for a starter after signing Machado, which doesn’t seem likely right now).

Cashman, though, like all GMs, isn’t going to take a trade at a price he doesn’t want, so we could say he’s just being patient and waiting until he gets the package he thinks he deserves for Gray. But in retrospect, maybe trashing Gray publicly at season’s end was a bad idea for building his trade value. That might make it easier to get lowballed. After all, if Cashman values him so lowly, why should teams pretend to do the opposite and, thus, offer a stronger package to the Yankees? Given this odd market for Gray, he may be worth more to the Yankees on their roster than he would as a trade chip.

While the Yankee starters are certainly talented, each one comes with a degree of a question mark. CC Sabathia just had heart surgery, has a bad knee, and is old. James Paxton has been oft-injured. Masahiro Tanaka has missed his fair share of time while in the Majors. Luis Severino may have suffered from fatigue last year, which could be a precursor to injury (I’m not really worried about Severino). J.A. Happ is plain old.

Without Gray, the depth behind those five consists of Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, Chance Adams, Mike King (not on the 40 man), Domingo Acevedo, Albert Abreu, and a rehabbing Jordan Montgomery. While there’s plenty of upside in there, I still trust Gray more than I do these pitchers, even Montgomery, especially for a prolonged stretch.

This isn’t where we expected to be with Gray back in October, but here we are. Despite all the bumps and bruises and perhaps because of the accidental suppression of his trade value, it is best for the Yankees to keep, rather than trade, Sonny Gray.

Reports: Yankees agree to re-sign Zach Britton

January 5, 2019 by Mike

David Robertson is gone but Zach Britton has returned. According to multiple reports the Yankees and Britton have agreed to a complicated multi-year contract with a $13M average annual value. The team has not yet announced the signing and that probably won’t happen until next week. No biggie.

For all intents and purposes, Britton received a two-year contract that includes a two-year club option and a one-year player option. It’s a smaller version of the Yusei Kikuchi/Jake Arrieta contract structure. Britton, Kikuchi, and Arrieta are all Scott Boras clients, not coincidentally. We’ll start seeing more of these contracts going forward.

After year two of the contract, the Yankees first get to decide on Britton’s two-year club option. If they decline the option, Britton can either pick up his player option or enter free agency. Ken Rosenthal says the deal can max out at north of $50M. That’s less than the Giants gave Mark Melancon two years ago (four years and $62M).

Britton’s contract pushes the Yankees over the $206M luxury tax threshold for the coming season, though possibly only temporarily. They had about $9M in wiggle room under the threshold following the J.A. Happ deal. They’re now roughly $4M over the threshold. Trading Sonny Gray could potentially clear up payroll space and bump the Yankees back under the threshold.

Britton turned 31 last month and he threw 40.2 total innings with a 3.10 ERA (4.22 FIP) and a 73.0% ground ball rate last season. That includes 2.88 ERA (4.08 FIP) in 25 innings with New York. He was very good late in the season, as he got further away from his offseason Achilles surgery, and that’s the Britton the Yankees hope they’re getting.

The Yankees will go into the season with Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder locked into five of the eight bullpen spots. They’re said to be looking for another reliever and have several in-house options (Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Joe Harvey, Stephen Tarpley, etc.) for the other bullpen spots. We’ll see how it shakes out.

The Yankees Will Miss David Robertson

January 5, 2019 by Bobby Montano

The Yankees have now said goodbye to David Robertson for the second time in the last four years. Robertson, drafted by the Yankees in the 17^th round of the 2006 Amateur Draft, inked a two-year, $23 million contract (with a $12 million team option in 2021) with the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday. Because Brian Cashman has made bolstering the team’s already dominant bullpen a top offseason priority, we can expect another top arm—but it’s also clear that the Yankees will miss D-Rob in 2019 and beyond.

The Yankees have had baseball’s best bullpen (judged by fWAR) in both 2017 and 2018, and David Robertson played a key role in that success since returning to the Yanks in a blockbuster deal midway through 2017. Robertson may have seemed less than his usual self in 2018, with a 3.23 (75 ERA-) in 69.2 innings, but a closer look at his peripherals shows that there are good reasons to assume that the Phillies just signed one of baseball’s best relievers.

While his ERA was a bit higher than we’ve come to expect, his peripherals remained as strong as ever: his K% (32.2), BB% (9.2), HR/9 (0.9), LD% (17.4), GB% (45.3) and FB% (37.3) were all in line with his career averages. Opponents hit .183/.258/.337 off of Robertson in 2018, again either in line with or lower than career norms. He did strand fewer men on base (67.5%) than normal (76.3%), but based on the underlying data, I think we can expect that to correct in 2019.

His stuff, too, remained as sharp as ever. Robertson embraced the Yankees’ anti-fastball approach, for the first time throwing more curveballs than fastballs in 2018, and gradually added a slider to his repertoire. That helped mitigate the fact that his fastball has become less effective over time—even as its velocity has increased (92.6 MPH average in 2018 compared to 91.2 MPH in 2008). This changed approach worked, and it ensured that D-Rob remained one of baseball’s most effective bullpen arms in 2018.

The ability to effectively make mid-career adjustments like this—especially for a reliever on the wrong side of 30—is a rare skill, and it goes a long way toward explaining why Robertson has managed to be so consistent over his 9-year career. He has thrown at least 60 innings per year since 2010 (he threw 43.2 in 2009, his first real year as a big leaguer), and during that stretch, he has not struck out less than 10 men per 9 innings, surrendered more than 1 home run per 9 or posted an ERA- above 90 (which is the highest of his career and, it’s worth noting, happened back in 2010). Amid the consistent success, he has posted 3 truly dominating years in relief in 2011, 2013 and again in 2017.

Consistent success out of the pen, too, is a rare skill. Think of Tommy Kahnle, who often looked unhittable in 2017 but was unplayable in 2018. There’s a reason that relievers are so closely associated with fungibility, which makes the most consistent and irreplaceable among them worthy of larger contracts—and as the league becomes increasingly bullpen-centric, that applies even for non-closers like Robertson.

While it is true that past success does not guarantee future success and also that relievers are consistent until they’re suddenly not, there is nothing in Robertson’s peripherals or past performance that suggests he will suddenly lose his effectiveness. He is about as safe a bet to log another above-average season as any reliever in baseball, and he is only one year removed from posting a 42 ERA-.

It’s also worth noting that Robertson’s contract structure, in which he will earn $10 million in 2019, $11 million in 2020 and, if Philly picks up his team option, $12 million in 2021 ($2 million buy out) means that he will earn the same salary in 2019 as Jeurys Familia and less than Andrew Miller. Robertson is a significantly better pitcher than Familia by almost any advanced metric and Miller, who was the best reliever in baseball for a recent stretch, has been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness.

That suggests that Robertson, who represented himself in free agency, will likely be underpaid in Philadelphia. That itself raises questions about why the Yankees were not more aggressive in trying to retain his services. In fact, the two camps were barely connected at all this offseason, aside from a (conveniently-timed) story about Robertson denying clubhouse staff their typical postseason shares.

Jon Heyman reports that the Yanks would like to bring back Zach Britton, and they’ve been consistently connected with former Rockie Adam Ottavino as well. Both are fine options that would make the current version of the Yankees bullpen better, but it is worth noting that the Yanks had both Robertson and Britton last year. In other words, unless they sign both Britton and Ottavino, it is likely that the Yankee bullpen just got worse—yet again leaving fans to wonder if management actually wants to field a winner above all else.

Update: Yanks sign Tulowitzki, designate Cole for assignment

January 4, 2019 by Mike

Friday: The Yankees announced the Tulowitzki signing earlier today, so it’s a done deal. No word on his number. Tulowitzki wore No. 2 with the Rockies and Blue Jays because he idolizes Derek Jeter. No. 2 is retired and No. 22 is taken (Jacoby Ellsbury). The Yankees could give him No. 12 and bump Tyler Wade to No. 14, which is the number he wanted last year before the Neil Walker signing. Well, whatever. Tulowitzki’s number is a #thingtowatch.

“I can’t say what it would take us out of, but we’re going into this with a commitment level to try Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop,” said Brian Cashman during a conference call, adding it’s been made clear Didi Gregorius will be the starting shortstop when he returns. It’s been reported that, if the Yankees manage to sign Manny Machado, they would play him at third base and Tulowitzki at short. Also, it turns out Tulowitzki had multiple workouts for the Yankees before signing.

To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, righty A.J. Cole was designated for assignment. He had a nice little two-month run last season after coming over from the Nationals in a cash trade, but he really fell apart in the second half, and Cole finished the year with a 4.26 ERA (4.92 FIP) in 38 innings in pinstripes. He did have a 29.2% strikeout rate, so that’s cool. My guess is Cole will be traded for cash or a player to be named later. I don’t think he’ll clear waivers and remain in the organization a non-40-man roster player.

Tuesday: According to Jeff Passan, the Yankees have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent infielder Troy Tulowitzki. The contract is pending a physical, which is no small thing given his injury history. The Blue Jays released Tulowitzki last month and still owe him $38M the next two years. The Yankees are only responsible for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum ($555,000).

Tulowitzki, 34, has not played since July 2017 due to various injuries, including a pair of heel surgeries. He hit .249/.300/.378 (79 wRC+) in 260 plate appearances when healthy two years ago. The Yankees have never been shy about bringing in former stars as reclamation projects (Darryl Strawberry, Eric Chavez, etc.) and Tulowitzki fits the mold. Watch him hit .300/.350/.475 or something.

Passan says that while Tulowitzki is expected to play shortstop while Didi Gregorius rehabs from Tommy John surgery, the signing doesn’t take the Yankees out of the running for Manny Machado. It’s a low cost, low risk signing that’s easy to back out of should a better option come along. This signing is more about adding depth than bringing in a no-doubt solution to the middle infield situation.

It’s worth noting that, when he worked out for scouts last month, Tulowitzki said he’s willing to play second or third base, but he doesn’t want to be a utility man. If he makes the Opening Day roster, either he’s going to start somewhere or he’s had a change of heart about the whole utility player thing. We’ll see. Anyway, one or two clutch doubles and you’ll all love him.