The Mostly Effective and Inoffensive Middle Reliever [2018 Season Review]
Way back in March, just after he was named to the team’s Opening Day roster, I suggested that Jonathan Holder would remain a part of the Yankees bullpen shuttle between the Bronx and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. I was impressed by his solid half-season in pinstripes, but skeptical about his ability to be a true relief weapon due to his lack of high-end stuff and questionable efficacy against left-handed hitters; as such, I would not have been shocked if he ended up out of favor in short order. Instead, he served as an integral piece of the bullpen this year from wire-to-wire.
You can’t predict baseball, am I right?
The Inauspicious Start
Holder did not look the part of a big-league reliever over his first three appearances – and that’s putting it lightly. His first outing shows up as a scoreless 0.1 IP effort, which is fine; however, he allowed an inherited runner to score, which gave the Blue Jays a one-run lead in the bottom of the sixth. He didn’t return for the seventh, and the Yankees ended up losing.
The next time out was much worse. Holder was given the ball in the top of the sixth against the Rays, and struck out Carlos Gomez looking. He then surrendered, in order, a double to C.J. Cron, a single to Wilson Ramos, and RBI single to future Yankee Adeiny Hechavarria, and a single to Jesus Sucre. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of hitters, and Holder looked absolutely lost. Tommy Kahnle came in after the Sucre single loaded the bases, and eventually allowed a two-RBI double to Denard Span. That’s not entirely on Holder, to be sure – but it certainly didn’t look like he’d fare better, either.
Holder’s next outing came three days later, when he was called into the game in the 13th against the Orioles. He tossed a one-two-three inning, which was nails, and then came out for the top of the 14th. The first three batters reached base (via a walk, a single, and an E5), and then Adam Jones struck out looking. And then, this:
Through three appearances, Holder boasted the following line: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 20.25 ERA. He faced 17 batters in those 2.2 innings, and they hit .467/.500/.733 in this time frame. And he was subsequently demoted to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Two Months of Dominance
Holder was recalled on April 21, and was called upon that day to close out a blow-out victory over the Blue Jays. And he nailed it down, tossing two scoreless and base-runner-free innings.
A great deal was written about the fact that he wouldn’t allow another earned run until June 30 (though, he did surrender unearned runs twice in between), and it was an incredibly welcome sight, to say the least. And from the date of his recall through the All-Star break, he pitched to the following line: 36.1 IP, 19 H, 5 BB, 30 K, 0.50 ERA, 2.01 FIP. It’s difficult to ask for much more from a reliever that entered the season seventh or eight on the bullpen’s depth chart.
Was there any change that led to this abrupt turnaround? Maybe!
In Holder’s first few appearances, he threw lots of cutters and lots of curves. When he returned to the Yankees bullpen, he scrapped those offerings entirely, and replaced them with more … well … everything else. It made sense, considering (small sample size alert) that batters were hitting .333 against his curve and .556(!) against his cutter, and it paid immediate dividends.
Another Rough Patch
Holder was in Aaron Boone’s circle of trust coming out of the All-Star break, and he rewarded the rookie manager by allowing 10 earned runs over his next seven appearances. That’s admittedly skewed by a 0-out, 7-run effort on August 2 – but he nevertheless allowed at least one run in four of those games. And his ERA jumped from 1.76 to 3.65 in the span of 3.1 IP, which just goes to show how volatile a reliever’s peripherals can be.
He did make history in this stretch, however, becoming the first Yankee in nearly 40 years to allow 7 ER without recording an out. Unlike that pitcher – Bob Kammeyer – Holder wasn’t laughed out of the majors immediately after this outing.
An Encouraging Stretch Run
Holder returned to form after stumbling out of the break, tossing eight consecutive scoreless outings immediately thereafter, and allowing just five runs in his final twenty appearances (21.2 IP) – and two of those runs came in a meaningless game (that the Yankees won) in the last series of the season. He pitched to a 2.08 ERA in this time, and held opposing batters to a .190 BA. That was the guy that we saw for two-plus months in the Spring, and that’s the guy that the Yankees would love to count on going forward.
He finished the season with the following line: 66.0 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.14 ERA (140 ERA+), 3.04 FIP.
What’s Next?
More of the same, I expect. Holder is under team control through 2023, and won’t be arbitration eligible until the 2020-21 off-season, so the Yankees will continue to give him opportunities to succeed. If he’s the pitcher we saw in May, June, August, and September, then he’s a legitimate weapon in any bullpen role; if he continues to have his ups and downs, he’s a perfectly acceptable middle reliever (especially for the cost). And, while I’d prefer the former, the latter is more than fine for the team’s fourth or fifth best reliever.
Mailbag: Santana, Scherzer, Diaz, Andujar, Cordero, Solarte
We have eleven questions in this week’s mailbag. Make sure you send your questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll get to as many as I can each week.
Matt asks: Question: Is there any value in Carlos Santana, does he fit? Or is it just more name value and someone we should pass on trying to take off the Phillies hands.
Reports indicate the Phillies are trying to move Santana, who has two years and $35M remaining on his contract ($20M luxury tax hit). Rhys Hoskins was a disaster in left field this year (-24 DRS) and they have to get him back at first base, which means Santana has to go. Santana hit .229/.352/.414 (109 wRC+) with 24 homers and more walks (110) than strikeouts (93) in 2018, and a terrible April dragged down his overall numbers.
- April: .153/.295/.276 (63 wRC+)
- Rest of 2018: .245/.364/.444 (119 wRC+)
Post-April Santana is the guy we’re used to seeing. The Yankees have a clear need at first base — they could also put Santana (or Luke Voit) at DH and Giancarlo Stanton in left field — and a switch-hitter with power and patience would fit the lineup well. The Phillies would have to eat money to facilitate a trade, I think that’s true no matter where they send Santana at this point, but yeah, I think there’s a potential fit. Does something like, say, Santana and $12M for Jonathan Loaisiga work?
Armando asks: Let’s say Nats don’t sign Harper, would they then finally tear down by trading Mad Max? And if you’re the Yankees do you empty the farm to get him? Finally wouldn’t he be the Yankees answer to the Chris Sale trade?
I seriously doubt the Nationals would rebuild even if Bryce Harper leaves. They still have a really good core! They’d go into next season with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg fronting the rotation and Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner anchoring the lineup. Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton, and top prospect Victor Robles could all be factors as well. The American League is top and bottom heavy. There are superpowers and a bunch of awful teams. The National League has more top-to-bottom mediocrity. Even if they can’t beat out the Braves for the NL East title, Washington should be able to contend with the Cardinals and Phillies and Rockies for a wildcard spot next year.
Hypothetically though, if the Nationals did decide to rebuild, of course the Yankees should go after Scherzer. He is one of the top five pitchers in the world and the Yankees should always be in on guys like that. Scherzer turns 35 in July but, not only is he not slowing down, he might be better than ever right now. This past season might’ve been the best of his career. I have no concerns whatsoever about him succeeding in the AL East either. His stuff plays anywhere. Would the Nationals do this without getting Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres in return? Probably not. But Scherzer is one of the few players in the game you consider parting with one of those guys to acquire.
Mike asks: I thought it was interesting to see limiting the use of openers in this article as a change that’s being discussed for next year. Why would MLB want to shut this down? I thought it was fun to watch.
Because MLB is afraid of change, mostly. No sport is as steeped in tradition as baseball. I don’t necessarily agree openers are fun to watch — the string of pitching changes can get old quick — but I do think the strategy is brilliant. Use a good reliever to retire the top of the order before letting the long guy throw four or five innings while only facing the 1-2-3 hitters once. It’s smart. And, obviously, it worked quite well this past season.
How would MLB limit openers anyway? Force the starting pitcher to throw at least three innings or something like that? What if the dude gets rocked? I’m sure MLB will come up with something. I said this the other day, I am against anything that limits creativity. Let teams try new things. Imagine any other industry in the world being as opposed to innovation as MLB. The game evolves. Embrace the change. Cool things tend to happen when people are given the freedom to be creative.
Joe asks: With a new CF likely making Cano a 1B/DH in Seattle, could a bad contract swap for Ellsbury be feasible? Say Ellsbury plus a decent prospect (Adams/Roansy type)?
Jacoby Ellsbury for Robinson Cano has to be the most asked question in RAB mailbag history, hands down. I don’t think it’s even close. We have to get two or three Ellsbury-for-Cano questions a month, easy. Anyway, I am a firm no on Ellsbury-for-Cano. Ellsbury is pretty much useless, but it’s two years and $47M vs. five years and $120M. Cano is still really good, the guy did hit .303/.374/.471 (136 wRC+) this past season, but he just turned 36 and chances are those five years remaining on his contract will be decline years, potentially heavy decline years. They are exactly the years the Yankees wanted to avoid when they limited their offer to seven years back in the day. I greatly prefer the bad contract that ends sooner, especially when we’re talking about two years vs. five years. Just get it over with already, you know? Love Robbie, he’s forever cool with me, but I feel like there’s limited upside and a ton of downside associated with picking him up at this point of his career.
Dennis asks: What do you think of Edwin Diaz is a trade target? Seattle is “re-tooling” and an elite closer doesn’t exactly fit the mold of that direction. Yanks have a ton of prospect capital to help kickstart that rebuild/retool and Diaz is great and has 3 or 4 years of Team Control.
Diaz is awesome — he’s better than awesome, he’s one of the top five relievers in the world right now — and the Yankees should be in on him. He’s only 24, he has four years of control remaining, and he threw 73.1 innings with a 1.96 ERA (1.61 FIP) with 124 strikeouts and 17 walks this past season. That’s a 44.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. His stuff is electric in every sense of the term:
Bill asks: Why is Joey Wendle a Rookie WAR leader? Doesn’t this show a glaring weakness in WAR?
Wendle did hit .300/.354/.435 (116 wRC+) this season, you know. That’s not too far behind Gleyber (120 wRC+). If anything, it reinforces that WAR overrates multi-position guys to some degree. Wendle played second, short, third, left, and right this season. I don’t think it’s crazy that a good defender with Wendle’s offensive numbers out-WAR-ed Torres and Andujar at all. That said, Wendle turns 29 in April. Not counting guys from Japan and Cuba (and Korea), he’s the oldest player to get Rookie of the Year votes in at least a decade. This might’ve been his career year. I’d take Torres and Andujar over Wendle the next five years without a second thought. In 2018, it’s not unreasonable to argue Wendle was more valuable than those two because he was above-average offensively and far better defensively.
Eric asks: How many WAR does a 2018 Miguel Andujar earn if he’s a league-average defensive 3B? 1B? LF? DH?
Fun question! Position player WAR has several components. Offense, defense, and baserunning are straightforward. There’s also a positional adjustment, because some positions are more difficult than others. A 110 wRC+ shortstop is more valuable than a 110 wRC+ first baseman, for example. There’s also a (small) league adjustment, and a (large) adjustment that allows us to compare our player to a replacement level player rather than a league average player. Add all that together, divide by the runs-per-win factor, and you get WAR.
Here is our hypothetical league average defending Andujar at other positions. The only thing that changes across positions is the positional adjustment. Everything else stays the same.
Offense | Defense | Baserunning | Position | League | Rep. Lvl | Runs/Win | WAR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual 2018 |
+20.3 | -16 | +1 | +0.5 | +1.8 | +18.1 | 9.714 | +2.7 |
at C | +20.3 | 0 | +1 | +12.5 | +1.8 | +18.1 | 9.714 | +5.5 |
at 1B | +20.3 | 0 | +1 | -12.5 | +1.8 | +18.1 | 9.714 | +3.0 |
at 2B, 3B, CF | +20.3 | 0 | +1 | +2.5 | +1.8 | +18.1 | 9.714 | +4.5 |
at SS | +20.3 | 0 | +1 | +7.5 | +1.8 | +18.1 | 9.714 | +5.0 |
at LF, RF | +20.3 | 0 | +1 | -7.5 | +1.8 | +18.1 | 9.714 | +3.5 |
at DH | +20.3 | 0 | +1 | -17.5 | +1.8 | +18.1 | 9.714 | +2.4 |
The league adjustment, replacement level adjustment, and runs-per-win factor fluctuate each season the same way the league batting average fluctuates. They stay in the same ballpark but move a little in either direction. Like everyone else, Andujar would be most valuable behind the plate, then at short, then at third and the other two up-the-middle positions, then in the outfield corners, then at first base, then at DH. I should note that his 2018 positional adjustment was +0.5 rather than the full +2.5 for third base because he did DH some, and that takes a bite out of his positional value.
Derek asks: Can you re-structure contracts if the player and ownership agrees to it? I’m thinking of a Joey Votto trade scenario where you shorten the 5yr/125 remaining on the contract to 3/105. His power has diminished but he has elite contact skills, is a lefty, and is an OBP machine.
Never happening. Not a million years. Why would Votto give up $20M? Given the current free agent climate, giving up $20M to become a free agent two years earlier probably isn’t worth it for him. Not when he’ll be 38 in three years. Also, the MLBPA would flip. Ultimately, it’s not up to them, but they would lean on Votto hard. Remember when Alex Rodriguez was supposed to get traded to the Red Sox back in the day? That fell through because his contract was going to be restructured in such a way that lowered its present day value, and the union got involved. It’s one thing for a free agent to take less money to go to a specific team. It’s another for a player to reduce the value of his existing contract. That is not a precedent the MLBPA wants to set. Is it possible to restructure a contract as laid out in the question? Yes, it is. But there would be hell to pay.
Marc asks: In reading the article on Kluber as a trade candidate, it got me thinking: would the Indians listen to an offer for Kluber AND Carrasco if the Yanks offered Severino and Andujar plus maybe Gray and another piece. It lets them keep Torres and upgrade the rotation, while allowing Cleveland to compete next year. Of course, my trade proposal sucks.
I’m sure the Indians would listen if the Yankees put Andujar and Luis Severino on the table. (I don’t think Sonny Gray would move the needle much.) Cleveland would trade two years of Carlos Carrasco and three years of Corey Kluber for four years of Severino and five of Andujar. Ideally, the Yankees would add Carrasco and Kluber to Severino, not use one to replace him, but I don’t think building a package for those two around Severino would be crazy. What happens at third base? Who knows. The rotation would be upgraded though, even with Severino subtracted out, because Carrasco and Kluber are just as good as him if not better. Needless to say, I would not expect something like this to happen.
Adam asks: Would a framework around Andujar for Franchy Cordero work? Would free Hicks up for a trade for pitching, and then you can sign Machado.
Franchy is fun because he can do things like this:
Dave asks: Do you think the Yankees will take a look at Yangervis Solarte as a fill in/utility guy if the Jays non-tender him. Switch hitter who can play multiple positions with some pop in the bat?
I don’t think so. It seems the clock has struck midnight on Solarte. He hit .226/.277/.378 (77 wRC+) this year and was sub-replacement level at -1 WAR. The versatility doesn’t help much when you’re not a good defender anywhere, which is what the defensive stats (and the eye test) say for Solarte. The Blue Jays declined his $5.5M option a few weeks ago and MLBTR projects a $5.9M salary through arbitration. Toronto didn’t decline the option only to pay him a higher salary through arbitration. Solarte’s getting non-tendered at the deadline in two weeks. A minor league contract? Sure. I definitely wouldn’t pencil him in as a Didi Gregorius replacement though.
Judge, Stanton, Gregorius, Hicks all receive 2018 MVP votes
As expected, Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts was named the 2018 AL MVP earlier tonight. He received 28 of 30 first place votes. Mike Trout finished second in the voting and Jose Ramirez finished third. Trout has two MVPs, four second place finishes, and one fourth place finish in his seven big league seasons. That is pretty nuts.
Betts of course had a marvelous season, hitting .346/.438/.640 (185 wRC+) with 32 homers and 30 steals. He led all players with +10.4 fWAR and +10.9 bWAR. That’s position players and pitchers, AL and NL. Betts led them all. Trout was right behind him though. Trout hit .312/.460/.628 (191 wRC+) with 39 homers in addition his defensive and baserunning excellence.
Aaron Judge received two seventh place and two tenth place votes to finish 12th in the overall AL MVP voting. He was the runner-up to Jose Altuve for last year’s AL MVP, as I’m sure you remember. Judge would’ve been a more serious MVP candidate this year had he not missed seven weeks with a fractured wrist. The injury put an end to his MVP chances.
Also receiving votes were Giancarlo Stanton (one eighth place, one tenth place), Didi Gregorius (one ninth place, one tenth place), and Aaron Hicks (one tenth place). This is the first time four different Yankees received MVP votes in the same season since 2012, when Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Rafael Soriano, and Raul Ibanez drew votes. The full voting results are at the BBWAA’s site.
No Yankees won an award this year. Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres finished second and third in the Rookie of the Year voting, respectively, and Aaron Boone finished fifth in the Manager of the Year voting. Luis Severino received a token fifth place in the Cy Young voting. Now, back to the offseason.
Scouting the Trade Market: Brandon Belt
Yankees fans and writers have been discussing the Giants as a potential trade partner for the last year or so, with much of the focus centered on Madison Bumgarner. And, with the Giants seemingly willing to spend money, they’ve also popped-up as a potential destination for persona non grata Sonny Gray. But with the Yankees in need of some semblance of certainty at first base and the Giants (probably) moving Buster Posey there full-time in the not-so-distant future, Brandon Belt might just be the player most worthy of our discussion.
Background
Belt was drafted by the Giants in the fifth round of the 2009 draft, following his junior year at Texas. It was actually his third time being selected in a draft (the Red Sox took him out of HS in 2006 and the Braves popped him out of JuCo in 2007), but he had never received the sort of bonus that he was looking for, so he chose to pursue college ball. He wasn’t regarded as a top prospect heading into that draft (Baseball America didn’t rank him in their top-200), and Belt ended up signing for $200,000.
The then-22-year-old Belt made his professional debut in 2010, and tore his way through the minors, slashing .352/.455/.620 with 23 HR and 22 SB in 595 PA between three levels (from High-A through Triple-A), and was a consensus top-25 prospect heading into 2011. He broke camp with the team in 2011, but ended up splitting the year between Triple-A and the majors, and battling for playing time with Aubrey Huff – but that’s not really a story worth reliving. It’s kind of funny in hindsight, though.
Offensive Performance
Through eight big-league seasons, Belt has offered fairly consistent production. He has not quite lived up to the hype generated by his obliteration of the minors, but he has been an above-average hitter every year, and has been able to count himself among the best first basemen in the game a couple of times. Let’s took a look at his last three seasons:
AVG/OBP/SLG | wRC+ | HR | SB | K% | BB% | PA | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | .275/.394/.474 | 136 | 17 | 0 | 22.6% | 15.9% | 655 |
2017 | .241/.355/.469 | 118 | 18 | 3 | 23.1% | 14.6% | 451 |
2018 | .253/.342/.414 | 107 | 14 | 4 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 456 |
There is a slightly disconcerting trend in there, as the 30-year-old has had back-to-back years of diminishing returns. However, 2016 was either his best or second-best year, and 2017 was basically his career norm (compared to his average of .266/.356/.455) – so it’s not as bad as it looks. And that’s particularly true when last year was a borderline lost season for Belt, as he missed two weeks in June with an appendectomy, and missed another few weeks with a torn meniscus before attempting to play through it down the stretch. He hit .307/.403/.547 (156 wRC+) with 11 HR in 226 PA prior to the appendectomy, and .203/.283/.290 afterward; it seems clear that he was never completely healthy.
Belt isn’t a superstar level hitter, to be sure – but he posted a wRC+ between 115 and 140 in the six seasons heading into 2018, and that sort of consistency is worthwhile; as is the combination of his above-average walk rates, solid power numbers (career .189 ISO), and average strikeout rates. And he’s a left-handed hitter with something of a pull tendency:
His pull rates are just about league-average, which is enough to lend hope that Yankee Stadium will help him tap into some power, without making him a huge liability against the shift. And his numbers against the shift are right in-line with his norms, which is great. He’s also willing to do this:
Defensive Performance
Belt has dabbled in the outfield in his career, amassing 75 games in left and 3 in right, but first base has otherwise been his home. He’s regarded as an excellent defender there, too, despite having never taken home any hardware for his work in the field. The metrics bear that out, as Belt has never been anything other than a net positive by both DRS and UZR. Focusing again on the last three years:
- 2016 : 9 DRS, 2.5 UZR
- 2017: 11 DRS, 7.5 UZR
- 2018: 13 DRS, 6.0 UZR
Belt leads all first basemen in DRS, UZR, and UZR/150 in that span, despite missing time with injuries the last two years (keep in mind that DRS and UZR are counting stats). Yankees first basemen, by comparison, were middle of the pack in both metrics in 2018, and haven’t been better than that since Mark Teixeira retired.
Injury History
As outlined above, Belt missed time following an appendectomy last year, and required surgery on his torn meniscus in September. He’s slated to be ready for Spring Training this year, though.
This wasn’t the first time that Belt dealt with a major injury, though. A concussion – the result of being hit in the head with a pitch – in August knocked him out for the remainder of the 2017 season, and that was his fourth concussion. Given what has happened to Clint Frazier over the last year or so, that’s absolutely terrifying.
Belt has also suffered a series of nagging injuries throughout his career, which has led many to label him with the dreaded ‘injury prone’ tag. However, many (if not most) of those maladies were fluky in nature, so it may not be fair to hold that against him. At the same time, though, concussions are scary, and he’s recovering from knee surgery – so the cause of the injuries isn’t as important as the toll they take.
Contract Status
Belt is owed $17.2 MM for each of the next three years, as he wraps up a 6-year, $79 MM contract. That gives him a luxury tax hit of roughly $13.2 MM a year.
What’s it Going to Cost?
This is always the biggest question in trade talks, and our trade proposals always suck. It’s made even more difficult by the fact that Belt is (1) a first baseman only (2) coming off of knee surgery (3) with three not-so-cheap years on his contract. Maybe it’s not fair to look for a one-to-one in this situation – but Belt is a unique case, to me, as his name value is probably at least a bit more than his actual value when we drill down the position. First base has something of an abundance of trade and free agent options on a year-to-year basis.
C.J. Cron, for example, was dealt with three years of arbitration remaining for a player to be named later (that ended up being a middling prospect). Matt Adams was traded for a middling prospect with three years of team control remaining, and then non-tendered. Justin Bour was dealt at midseason with two-plus seasons of team control, and the return was … a middling prospect.
Belt is better than all of these guys with a longer track record – but it seems like first basemen are always worth a bit less on the market than you’d expect. And the fact that the Diamondbacks are shopping the superior Paul Goldschmidt might muddy how much the Giants could ask for, to boot.
Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?
It all depends on the cost, really.
Belt is obviously a worthwhile option at first base, with stellar defense and offense that ranges from good to great. At the same time, though, I kind of talked myself out of giving up much of anything when I looked into other first basemen that changed organizations over the last year or so, and the return they generated. Again, Belt is better than Cron and Adams and Bour – but for that much more money, and a higher cost in talent? I’m not so sure.
The Arrival of a Highly-Touted Second Baseman [2018 Season Review]
Prior to the 2018 season, Yankee fans had a lot to look forward to and one of them was the arrival of Gleyber Torres. The Yankees acquired Torres from the Cubs in the 2016 Aroldis Chapman trade along with Billy McKinney, Rashad Crawford and Adam Warren. Torres, who had been touted as a top talent since being in the IFA pool as a teenager, was the obvious crown jewel of the return. He was regarded as a top 50-ish prospect in all of baseball at the time, but the stock skyrocketed during the 2016 Arizona Fall League when he was named the league MVP after hitting .403 as a 19-year old (also happened to be the youngest of the bunch, which is cool).
Torres entered the 2017 season as the easy consensus number one prospect in the system. He started the year in Double-A and earned a call-up to Triple-A mid-season. People speculated that he could make the majors by the end of the season. Unfortunately, his year was cut short when he injured the non-throwing elbow on a slide home. The Yankees and the fans had to wait through another winter to see Torres in the majors.
All in all, after a slightly delayed start, Torres had a fine debut season, hitting .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs in 484 PA’s, good for a 120 wRC+ and a 1.9 fWAR. A 21-year old 2nd baseman hitting 20% better than the league average in his first ML season? I’ll take it. His performance earned him a third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting as well.
A Torrid Start
Many hoped that Torres would make the roster right out of camp. However, two things got in the way. First off, he did not do well in ST. In 13 Grapefruit League games, Torres hit .219 with ten strikeouts. He hadn’t hit live pitching since last June so some rust was expected, and the Yankees probably wanted him to get some reps in Triple-A before making the majors.
Another reason – probably a bigger one – was service time. A short stint in the beginning of the year meant that the Yankees would control him until 2024. Teams manipulate service time all the time – the Cubs with Kris Bryant, the Blue Jays with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., so on. Anyways, the hope for the Yankees was that Torres would shake off the rust and play well enough in April to justify a call-up (*cough* right as the cutoff date for service time extends *cough).
And it happened just like that. Torres hit .347/.393/.510 in 14 games in Triple-A. The Yankees called him up on April 21 and Torres made the ML debut the next day vs. Toronto. He went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and a GIDP. What took place for the next 33 games, however, was quite magical. From April 23 to June 1, Torres was one of the best players in the majors, hitting .342/.397/.623 with 9 home runs in 33 games. The absolute highlight of his young career came vs. the Indians on May 6:
A Disappointing Second Half
There comes a time in most young ML players’ careers where they struggle. That is to be expected, especially in the case of a 21-year old infielder playing in a different position than what he’s used to.
From August 1 to the end of the regular season, Torres hit .254/.335/.420 with 9 HRs in 54 games. That includes a brutal 22-game stretch in August where he only hit .205 with 3 extra base hits in 95 PAs. What happened? As far as we know, it was just a plain slump, which may be the easiest explanation. All players go through it. As for a young guy like Torres, who breezed through the minors, one can press himself too much in the majors and get into a mental funk.
Another theory is that his hip problem bothered him throughout the second half. I don’t know (yet) if there’s any quote from Torres himself that denies the notion of being affected by injuries, but if there is, I would take it with a grain of salt. A baseball season is a pretty long one. One can get a banged up from playing a single game. Over time, players develop bruises, sore spots, nagging pains, etc. they just don’t talk about it. it’s possible that the pain affected his play, but not big enough to stop him from the action.
Besides, the Yankees had some key injuries during his slump (most notably Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius), which emphasized the importance of Torres’s role in the team. There *was* a game late in the season where he was scratched from the lineup for “hip tightness.” Totally just speculating here but I wouldn’t be surprised if hip problem was a factor in his second-half slump.
Ironing Out Some Issues
As it is for most young players, Torres is far from being a complete player. Dude has a lot of tools and he forecasts to be a pretty good ML player long-term. However, at this moment, he does have a few things to work on. First off, he has made some careless errors. Scouts have praised Torres’s fielding tools for awhile and he’s flashed it in the bigs. However, he’s shown dumb errors like this:
It is as routine as it gets, but Torres missed it on a simple glove-t0-hand transfer. Because it is so routine, Torres didn’t bother paying attention to the slight details, which cost the Yankees an out or two here. The good news is that stuff like this is fixable. Unlike Miguel Andujar, whose defensive downfall is from his lack of range, the fix on Torres is mental. The time and potential is on his side.
While fielding percentage doesn’t hold much weight anymore, it tells a little bit of story. Torres had a .970 fielding percentage with 17 errors total. That ranks 18th out of 19 second basemen with qualifying amount of playing time. Fangraphs has his defense metrics at -7.9, which is still not great.
There’s another weakness to his game. Few weeks ago, Mike looked at Torres’s baserunning. The gist is that Torres has been way shy in trying for third base when advancing from first on a single. That’s another correctable thing that could improve with time. One last thing I’ve noticed is his plate discipline. Take a look at his numbers (top) compared to the league average (bottom):
As you can see, Torres swings at more pitches outside of the zone (while making less contact of them than league average) and makes much less contact in general than league average. His walk numbers also dropped a bit as he came to the majors. Plate discipline was not really something that’s been deemed as his weakness in his scouting reports and this is probably from facing Major League pitchers rather than minor league ones. I won’t panic over a 21-year old guy not picking up ML pitches well. It is something I would monitor though, just to see how he progresses.
What’s Next?
At this very moment, the Yankee infield is in a bit of a funky position. Gregorius is going to miss a chunk of the season thanks to Tommy John Surgery. With one year of control left, that puts some uncertainty in his Yankee future. As for Andujar, we don’t know if the team will stick him on third long-term. Heck, they are doing due diligence on Manny Machado, who could play shortstop or third. Depends on what happens, I think there’s a slight chance that the Yankees slide Torres back to short, but ultimately, he probably stays on second base – and will do so for a long time.
We saw both strong and weak sides of Torres’s game in 2018. It feels like a broken record saying this but he’s a young guy who will probably get better with more experience. Improvements are never a guarantee but Torres seems to be one of the surer cases where you can bank on him being in pinstripes for years to come.
Scouting the Free Agent Market: Daniel Murphy
The Yankees current in-house options at first base are questionable at-best. Luke Voit was nothing short of incredible with the team, but crazy things can happen in such small sample sizes (lest we forget Shane Spencer and Kevin Maas), and it seems risky for a contending team to head into the year with him as Plan A. And Greg Bird has a full season’s worth of below-average offense spread across three partial seasons, and has yet to show the ability to stay healthy. That’s not an ideal Plan A (or Plan B for that matter) either.
There are larger holes on the roster, to be sure, but first base feels like a spot that the team should upgrade. And, short of signing Bryce Harper and moving him over to the cold corner, I’m not sure that there’s a better free agent option than Daniel Murphy.
Background
The 33-year-old Murphy was drafted by the Mets way back in 2006, and spent the first ten years of his professional career in that organization. He entered professional baseball as a third baseman, and bounced between there, first, and left field upon his debut, before settling at the keystone in 2011. He has primarily played second since that point, but, with the exception of 2017, he has spent time at multiple positions every year.
This is also the point where I will make note of Murphy’s history of homophobia. Way back in 2015 he justifiably came under fire for saying that he “disagree[s] with the [gay] lifestyle, 100 percent,” in reference to Billy Bean working with the Mets. He was given the opportunity to walk it back several times, but basically doubled-down on his statements, saying that he’d be accepting of a gay teammate, but wouldn’t change his stance on homosexuality. And when he was acquired by the Cubs back in August, he continued to be unapologetic.
I will not get on my soapbox at this juncture, but this is an elephant in the room that cannot be ignored when discussing Murphy’s free agency. And I completely understand how difficult it is to root for such a player.
Offensive Performance
Murphy has made a career out of being a high-contact, moderate power hitter, with intermittent flashes of legitimate power. He hit 25 home runs in 2016, 23 home runs in 2017, and 12 home runs in 91 games this season, so the pop is there – it’s just a matter of how often he can get to it. Let’s take a look at his last three years:
AVG/OBP/SLG | wRC+ | HR | SB | K% | BB% | PA | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | .347/.390/.595 | 154 | 25 | 5 | 9.8% | 6.0% | 582 |
2017 | .322/.384/.543 | 135 | 23 | 2 | 13.0% | 8.8% | 593 |
2018 | .299/.336/.454 | 110 | 12 | 3 | 11.4% | 5.7% | 351 |
2016 and 2017 are probably not informative of what to expect going forward. Those were career years, and he’s a 33-year-old that missed a lot of time following microfracture surgery on his right knee. That’s a serious procedure that doesn’t yield a great track record of players coming back to full strength, and I don’t see a reason to expect that he’ll buck the trend. I included those numbers, however, as one does wonder if there are teams out there that will see some manner of potential for a huge bounceback.
That being said, 2018 was basically right in-line with his career norms. Murphy’s a career .299/.344/.458 hitter, with 6.3% walks and 11.9% strikeouts – this is who he is. And the average first baseman hit .255/.335/.450 over the last three years.
Defensive Performance
I’m evaluating Murphy strictly as a first baseman, as that’s the only non-DH position that he should play. He hasn’t played the position extensively since 2009, but he’s spent time there in almost every season. His career numbers there are strong – 4.8 UZR/150 and 13 DRS/150 – albeit spread out over multiple small sample sizes; it’s probably enough to say that he’d be more than competent there, though.
Murphy should never, ever play second base though, outside of a serious emergency. He has simply never been good at the keystone, and he was at his worst there last year (-5.5 UZR and -18 DRS in just 535.1 innings).
Injury History
As I said above, Murphy missed time recovering from microfracture surgery on his right knee. He didn’t make his season debut until June 12, though he was healthy for the remainder of the season.
Murphy is a player that is perpetually banged-up, though he hadn’t missed extensive time since 2011, when an MCL injury ended his season in August. Unfortunately, most of those injuries have been the nagging sort, and almost all of them have been his knees. Moving him out of the middle infield permanently could help sort those out, but there’s a disconcerting history here.
Contract Estimates
Let’s turn to the usual suspects:
- Jim Bowden (subscription req.) – 2 years, $20 MM ($10 MM AAV)
- FanGraphs – 2 years, $18 MM ($9 MM AAV)
- MLBTR – 2 years, $20 MM ($10 MM AAV)
That seems about right for a 1B/DH that profiles as a tick above-average for the position, right? Under such a contract, Murphy would be expected to be a 2 win player or thereabouts, and that’s definitely reasonable.
Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?
In a vacuum, yes. Murphy offers a stark contrast to the majority of the Yankees lineup, as a left-handed hitter that simply doesn’t strikeout. There’s also the potential for a bit more power with a shift into Yankee Stadium, though he tends to hit the ball to all fields so it probably wouldn’t be that big of a jump.
We don’t live in a vacuum, though, and baseball isn’t played in such conditions. There are still folks out there that hold the Aroldis Chapman acquisitions(s) as upsetting due to his domestic violence accusations, and it would be difficult to welcome a bigot into the fold. I believe in second chances, but Murphy’s attitude hasn’t shown any semblance of regret – and I don’t know that I could root for him.
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