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The Arrival of a Highly-Touted Second Baseman [2018 Season Review]

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(Sung Min Kim)

Prior to the 2018 season, Yankee fans had a lot to look forward to and one of them was the arrival of Gleyber Torres. The Yankees acquired Torres from the Cubs in the 2016 Aroldis Chapman trade along with Billy McKinney, Rashad Crawford and Adam Warren. Torres, who had been touted as a top talent since being in the IFA pool as a teenager, was the obvious crown jewel of the return. He was regarded as a top 50-ish prospect in all of baseball at the time, but the stock skyrocketed during the 2016 Arizona Fall League when he was named the league MVP after hitting .403 as a 19-year old (also happened to be the youngest of the bunch, which is cool).

Torres entered the 2017 season as the easy consensus number one prospect in the system. He started the year in Double-A and earned a call-up to Triple-A mid-season. People speculated that he could make the majors by the end of the season. Unfortunately, his year was cut short when he injured the non-throwing elbow on a slide home. The Yankees and the fans had to wait through another winter to see Torres in the majors.

All in all, after a slightly delayed start, Torres had a fine debut season, hitting .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs in 484 PA’s, good for a 120 wRC+ and a 1.9 fWAR. A 21-year old 2nd baseman hitting 20% better than the league average in his first ML season? I’ll take it. His performance earned him a third place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting as well.

A Torrid Start

Many hoped that Torres would make the roster right out of camp. However, two things got in the way. First off, he did not do well in ST. In 13 Grapefruit League games, Torres hit .219 with ten strikeouts. He hadn’t hit live pitching since last June so some rust was expected, and the Yankees probably wanted him to get some reps in Triple-A before making the majors.

Another reason – probably a bigger one – was service time. A short stint in the beginning of the year meant that the Yankees would control him until 2024. Teams manipulate service time all the time – the Cubs with Kris Bryant, the Blue Jays with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., so on. Anyways, the hope for the Yankees was that Torres would shake off the rust and play well enough in April to justify a call-up (*cough* right as the cutoff date for service time extends *cough).

And it happened just like that. Torres hit .347/.393/.510 in 14 games in Triple-A. The Yankees called him up on April 21 and Torres made the ML debut the next day vs. Toronto. He went 0-for-4 with a strikeout and a GIDP. What took place for the next 33 games, however, was quite magical. From April 23 to June 1, Torres was one of the best players in the majors, hitting .342/.397/.623 with 9 home runs in 33 games. The absolute highlight of his young career came vs. the Indians on May 6:

From June to July, Torres cooled off a bit, but his numbers were still pretty great at the All Star Break: .294/.350/.555 with 15 home runs, which is good for a 143 wRC+. His overall first half performance was good enough to get an All-Star nod. However, because he was in the disabled list at the time (hip injury), Torres was not eligible to play in the Midsummer Classic.

A Disappointing Second Half

There comes a time in most young ML players’ careers where they struggle. That is to be expected, especially in the case of a 21-year old infielder playing in a different position than what he’s used to.

From August 1 to the end of the regular season, Torres hit .254/.335/.420 with 9 HRs in 54 games. That includes a brutal 22-game stretch in August where he only hit .205 with 3 extra base hits in 95 PAs. What happened? As far as we know, it was just a plain slump, which may be the easiest explanation. All players go through it. As for a young guy like Torres, who breezed through the minors, one can press himself too much in the majors and get into a mental funk.

Another theory is that his hip problem bothered him throughout the second half. I don’t know (yet) if there’s any quote from Torres himself that denies the notion of being affected by injuries, but if there is, I would take it with a grain of salt. A baseball season is a pretty long one. One can get a banged up from playing a single game. Over time, players develop bruises, sore spots, nagging pains, etc. they just don’t talk about it. it’s possible that the pain affected his play, but not big enough to stop him from the action.

Besides, the Yankees had some key injuries during his slump (most notably Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius), which emphasized the importance of Torres’s role in the team. There *was* a game late in the season where he was scratched from the lineup for “hip tightness.” Totally just speculating here but I wouldn’t be surprised if hip problem was a factor in his second-half slump.

Ironing Out Some Issues

As it is for most young players, Torres is far from being a complete player. Dude has a lot of tools and he forecasts to be a pretty good ML player long-term. However, at this moment, he does have a few things to work on. First off, he has made some careless errors. Scouts have praised Torres’s fielding tools for awhile and he’s flashed it in the bigs. However, he’s shown dumb errors like this:

It is as routine as it gets, but Torres missed it on a simple glove-t0-hand transfer. Because it is so routine, Torres didn’t bother paying attention to the slight details, which cost the Yankees an out or two here. The good news is that stuff like this is fixable. Unlike Miguel Andujar, whose defensive downfall is from his lack of range, the fix on Torres is mental. The time and potential is on his side.

While fielding percentage doesn’t hold much weight anymore, it tells a little bit of story. Torres had a .970 fielding percentage with 17 errors total. That ranks 18th out of 19 second basemen with qualifying amount of playing time. Fangraphs has his defense metrics at -7.9, which is still not great.

There’s another weakness to his game. Few weeks ago, Mike looked at Torres’s baserunning. The gist is that Torres has been way shy in trying for third base when advancing from first on a single. That’s another correctable thing that could improve with time. One last thing I’ve noticed is his plate discipline. Take a look at his numbers (top) compared to the league average (bottom):

As you can see, Torres swings at more pitches outside of the zone (while making less contact of them than league average) and makes much less contact in general than league average. His walk numbers also dropped a bit as he came to the majors. Plate discipline was not really something that’s been deemed as his weakness in his scouting reports and this is probably from facing Major League pitchers rather than minor league ones. I won’t panic over a 21-year old guy not picking up ML pitches well. It is something I would monitor though, just to see how he progresses.

What’s Next?

(Joseph Garnett Jr./Getty Images)

At this very moment, the Yankee infield is in a bit of a funky position. Gregorius is going to miss a chunk of the season thanks to Tommy John Surgery. With one year of control left, that puts some uncertainty in his Yankee future. As for Andujar, we don’t know if the team will stick him on third long-term. Heck, they are doing due diligence on Manny Machado, who could play shortstop or third. Depends on what happens, I think there’s a slight chance that the Yankees slide Torres back to short, but ultimately, he probably stays on second base – and will do so for a long time.

We saw both strong and weak sides of Torres’s game in 2018. It feels like a broken record saying this but he’s a young guy who will probably get better with more experience. Improvements are never a guarantee but Torres seems to be one of the surer cases where you can bank on him being in pinstripes for years to come.

The Other Pitcher Acquired at the Deadline [2018 Season Review]

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(Elsa/Getty)

The Yankees acquisition of Lance Lynn was initially met with a bit of puzzlement. The issue wasn’t the trade itself, as few were upset about the loss of Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo; rather, folks were concerned about the perceived downgrade from Adam Warren (dealt that same day for international bonus money), as well as Lynn’s generally poor performance through the trade deadline. I counted myself among the people focused on the latter:

There was also a question of approach with Lynn, who had thrown more fastballs than any pitcher this side of Bartolo Colon prior to the trade. Put that all together and the Yankees had acquired a pitcher with a 5.10 ERA (4.72 FIP) and hideous 5.5 BB/9 in 102.1 IP, who also didn’t quite jibe with the team’s approach. How’d that work out?

Mostly well, I would say. Though, his tenure with the Yankees does break down into four distinct stages.

Strong Early Returns

Lynn made his pinstriped debut on August 1, coming in to relieve a struggling Sonny Gray in the third inning. He promptly allowed an inherited run to score, but he settled down in short order, and gave the rest of the Yankees bullpen some desperately-needed rest. He ended up pitching 4.1 otherwise scoreless innings, allowing 5 hits and no walks, striking out 5.

The 31-year-old shifted to the rotation after that, and made Brian Cashman look like a genius in his first two turns. He tossed 7.1 scoreless innings against the White Sox (along with 9 strikeouts), and followed that up with a 5 IP, 1 run effort against the Rangers (with 8 strikeouts). And he did that without changing his fastball-heavy approach:

In his last start with the Twins, he threw over 90% fastballs (as in his four-seamer, sinker, and cutter); in his first three times out for the Yankees, he averaged 89.5% fastballs. This is who he is, and the coaching staff clearly had no interest in changing it – and why would they, when it’s working?

And then it stopped working.

Four Bad Starts

Okay, maybe it’s unfair to say that it stopped working entirely. Four starts is only four starts, after all. But when a pitcher that had a 5.10 ERA through 20 starts looks good for three games and then posts a 9.16 ERA in those four starts, it might be cause for concern.

Though, to be fair to Lynn, his underlying numbers did suggest that there was a ton of bad luck here. In 18.2 IP, Lynn racked up 22 strikeouts against 6 walks, allowed just one home run, and had a solid 47.7 GB%. And he allowed a league-average amount of hard contact in three of the four starts, so it isn’t as though the opposing teams were hitting rockets all over the field, either. He nevertheless had a .469 BABIP in those starts, which led to 31 hits and a bunch of runs. Such is the life of a pitcher.

Four Good Outings

Lynn sorted himself out down the stretch, though, and closed out the season strong. He made four more appearances (three starts), pitching to the following line: 19.0 IP, 15 H, 4 BB, 17 K, 49.1 GB%, 2.37 ERA, 2.69 FIP.

All told, Lynn was solid with the Yankees. He posted a 4.14 ERA (2.17 FIP) in 54.1 IP, with strong strikeout (10.1 K/9), walk (2.3 BB/9), and groundball (47.4%) rates. And with Luke Voit tearing the cover off of the ball, the loss of Austin didn’t mean much of anything. It was a good deal for the Yankees that played a very real role in them winning homefield advantage for the Wild Card game.

So what about that fourth stage?

The ALDS

Lynn did his part to keep the Yankees in game one, pitching two scoreless innings of relief. That was huge. His next outing … not so much.

It’s difficult to lay blame at the feet of anyone in particular for the 16-1 drubbing in game three (though most fans blame Aaron Boone), but Lynn played as big a role as any pitcher (to say the least). He came in to relieve Luis Severino with the bases loaded and none out, and promptly walked in a run, and then allowed a bases-clearing double. A groundout and a single later, and Lynn was back on the bench; Chad Green allowed both of his inherited runners to score, as well.

It’s not worth reliving this any further but, for many – myself included – this is the lasting memory of Lynn as a Yankee.

What’s Next?

Lynn is a free agent and, as was the case last off-season, I expect him to sign yet another one-year ‘prove it’ sort of contract. The free agent climate may be more favorable to players this year, but he was also much better in 2017 (3.43 ERA in 186.1 IP) than he was in 2018 (4.77 ERA in 156.2 IP).

Will that contract be with the Yankees? I don’t see it, but it wouldn’t quite shock me, either. Do I want Lynn back in pinstripes? No – but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

The Best and Worst of Luis Severino [2018 Season Review]

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(Getty)

The Yankees have been trying for years — literally more than a decade — to develop a homegrown top of the rotation starter. Chien-Ming Wang was that guy for two seasons. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes had their moments. Now, the Yankees finally have that young top of the rotation arm, and he showed in 2018 that he was no flash in the pan.

Luis Severino, who is still only 24 years old, finished third in the AL Cy Young voting behind Corey Kluber and Chris Sale last season thanks to 193.1 innings of dominance. He finished the season with a 2.98 ERA (3.07 FIP) and 230 strikeouts and became the first Yankees starter in 20 years to post a sub-3.00 ERA. Severino became everything the Yankees hoped he would become as a prospect.

In 2018, Severino followed his breakout year with an overall strong season, a strong season that included a 3.39 ERA (2.95 FIP) with 220 strikeouts 191.1 innings. It was an uneven season, however. Severino was even better in the first half this year than he was last year, though his second half was bad bordering on dreadful. The postseason wasn’t much better. Let’s review Severino’s way up then way down season.

A Cy Young Caliber First Half

On March 17th, Aaron Boone made the announcement everyone knew was coming: Severino would be the Opening Day starter. Masahiro Tanaka had started the last three Opening Days, but, when you have a season like Severino had in 2017, it’s tough to pass him up for Game One. At 24 years and 37 days, Severino became the Yankees’ youngest Opening Day starter since Lefty Gomez in 1932 (23 years and 138 days).

The Opening Day start went very well — Severino struck out seven Blue Jays and allowed just one hit in 5.2 scoreless innings while on a 90-ish pitch limit — as the Yankees snapped their six-year Opening Day losing streak. Severino had a little hiccup against the Red Sox on April 10th (five runs in five innings) but was otherwise excellent in April. His best start of the season was his first start in May, when he struck out ten in a shutout at Minute Maid Park.

“(Severino) shoved it up our ass,” Alex Bregman told Chandler Rome after the game. Sounds about right. Six days later Severino struck out eleven across six innings in a win over the Red Sox. Three weeks after that he struck out eleven more Astros in seven innings in another win. Next time out he struck out ten Tigers in eight innings.

The seven-start stretch from May 2nd to June 4th was the most dominant stretch of Severino’s young career. He has ten career double-digit strikeout games and four of the ten came during this seven-start stretch. I mean, look at this. Look at the teams he had to face too:

Date Result IP H R ER BB K HR
May 2nd 4-0 win at HOU 9 5 0 0 1 10 0
May 8th 3-2 win vs. BOS 6 6 2 2 0 11 0
May 13th 6-2 win vs. OAK 6 5 1 1 2 7 0
May 19th 8-3 win at KC 6 8 3 3 2 6 0
May 25th 2-1 win vs. LAA 6 4 1 1 4 5 1
May 30th 5-3 win vs. HOU 7 4 2 2 1 11 1
June 4th 7-4 win at DET 8 4 2 1 0 10 0
Total 48 36 11 10 10 60 2

Goodness. Yeah, the Royals and Tigers stink, but that’s two starts against the Astros, one start against the Red Sox, one start against the Athletics, and one start against an Angels team that, at the time, was 28-23 and one of the highest scoring teams in MLB. Severino held opponents to a .202/.249/.275 line in the seven starts. That was as dominant a stretch as we’ve seen from a Yankee in a long time.

Severino was not quite that good the rest of the first half but he was very good — he struck out nine Rays in eight shutout innings on June 16th and nine Phillies in seven shutout innings on June 26th — and he was deservedly selected to the All-Star Game for the second straight season. He’s the first Yankees pitcher selected to multiple All-Star Games before his 25th birthday since Mel Stottlemyre.

Eighty-seven pitchers had thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title as of the day the All-Star Game rosters were announced. Here’s where Severino ranked:

  • ERA: 2.12 (third)
  • FIP: 2.47 (fourth)
  • Strikeouts: 29.8% (tenth)
  • fWAR: +4.3 (third)
  • bWAR: +5.0 (fourth)

He was a top five pitcher in baseball. Not in the American League, in all of baseball. He was that good. Severino threw a scoreless inning in his All-Star Game debut (he didn’t pitch in last year’s game) and he also caught Aaron Judge’s home run while warming up in the bullpen, which was pretty cool. Twenty starts with a 2.31 ERA (2.75 FIP) in 128.1 innings before the All-Star break. As good as it gets.

“Adversity, experience goes a long way when you can persevere,” Boone said in June. “And (Severino) in a lot of ways has persevered through a lot for a young man early in his career. And I think all of that has only made him a better pitcher and now we’re seeing in a lot of ways what an elite pitcher in the league looks like. He’s a special one.”

A Disastrous Second Half

Truth be told, Severino’s bad second half started in the first half. The Blue Jays roughed him up three runs in five innings on July 7th, then the Indians tagged him for four runs in five innings on July 12th. Severino allowed two home runs in each of those starts after allowing four homers total in his previous 12 starts.

Because he’s a young guy who threw a ton of innings last year and a ton of innings in the first half, the Yankees used the All-Star break to give Severino a nice long breather. He started against the Indians on July 12th and did not start again until July 23rd, with the All-Star Game appearance effectively acting as a between-starts bullpen session. The rest was well-intentioned. It didn’t help Severino’s performance.

The Rays battered Severino for seven runs (six earned) on eleven hits in five innings on July 23rd. Five days later the Royals — the Royals! — tagged him for six runs in 4.1 innings. Then came four runs in 5.2 innings against the Red Sox, and four runs in four innings against the Mets, and six runs (five earned) in 2.2 innings against the Athletics. The home run rate regression was not pretty:

Severino allowed ten home runs in 128.1 innings in the first half (0.70 HR/9 and 9.3% HR/FB). He allowed nine home runs in 63 innings in the second half (1.29 HR/9 and 15.3% HR/FB). The new Yankee Stadium has been open ten years now and only five times in those ten years has a Yankee thrown at least 100 innings in a season with a 0.70 HR/9 or better …

  1. 2013 Ivan Nova: 0.58 HR/9
  2. 2015 Nathan Eovaldi: 0.58 HR/9
  3. 2011 CC Sabathia: 0.64 HR/9
  4. 2015 Adam Warren: 0.69 HR/9
  5. 2009 CC Sabathia: 0.70 HR/9

… and while Severino has the talent to suppress home runs, doing so at that level at Yankee Stadium isn’t easy. Remember, offense was way down around the league from 2013 through the first half of 2016. Only two of those five seasons above fall outside that window and both are peak Sabathia. That’s what it takes to post a really good home run rate in Yankee Stadium. Be peak CC Sabathia, basically.

Some home run regression was inevitable but gosh, it was harsh. And it wasn’t just the home runs either. Opponents hit .209/.263/.316 (60 OPS+) against Severino in the first half and .291/.331/.490 (123 OPS+) against him in the second half. This year Matt Kemp hit .290/.338/.481 and started the All-Star Game, for comparison. Severino turned everyone he faced in the second half into Matt Kemp. Not great. Some numbers:

ERA FIP K% BB% GB% Hard % xwOBA
First Half 2.31 2.75 28.7 6.4 43.9 33.8 .285
Second Half 5.57 3.37 27.3 5.0 36.2 37.6 .315

Severino was on the very short list of the best pitchers in baseball last season and in the first half this season. Then he was one of the worst in the second half. Truly. The strikeout and walk rates were nice, sure, but 118 pitchers threw at least 50 innings after the All-Star break and only ten had a higher ERA than Severino. He was quite bad. It was night and day. It really was.

Despite the miserable second half, the Yankees gave the ball to Severino in the AL Wild Card Game — my hunch was they really wanted to start him the game, and when he closed out his regular season with three straight strong starts (four runs in 17.2 innings), it made it an easy call — and it went okay. He threw four scoreless innings against the Athletics but really had to grind. Four walks and 87 pitches in four innings plus two batters.

Severino’s ALDS Game Three start was a disaster. Boone didn’t help him out any with his slow hook (or by going to Lance Lynn with the bases loaded and no outs), but still, it was a disaster. The Red Sox tagged him for six runs in three innings plus three batters. Severino has a 6.26 ERA in 23 career postseason innings, which is definitely something people will obsess over even though we just watched David Price become a postseason hero and Justin Verlander had a 5.96 ERA in his first 23 career postseason innings. Whatever.

So Was He Tipping His Pitches Or What?

Every time a very good pitcher struggles, the question gets asked. Is he tipping his pitches? It’s become the first line of defense. This very good pitcher is suddenly pitching poorly? Ah well, he must be tipping his pitches! It’s become something of a crutch and, to their credit, the Yankees and Severino did not use pitch-tipping an excuse for his second half struggles. He was asked about it start after start and every time everyone said no.

It wasn’t until after the season ended that the Yankees finally acknowledged some pitch-tipping issues. Brian Cashman told Brendan Kuty that Severino was “telegraphing” things and was “victimized by pitch-tipping at times.” Someone with the Yankees told Jon Heyman the Red Sox “had his pitches” in ALDS Game Three. Ben Harris (subs. req’d) did some fine detective work and found this:

See it? Probably not. I sure as hell didn’t. Severino stops for a brief instant to check the runner at third base … with no runner at third base. He did that when throwing fastballs only. For a slider or changeup, he checked the actual runner at second, then whipped his head right around and threw home. That was the tell. Harris also found that Severino would sometimes drop his glove a little lower while in the set position when throwing an offspeed pitch.

So yes, the Yankees acknowledged Severino tipped his pitches and there is some evidence of him actually doing it. Everyone likes to say so and so is tipping his pitches. To actually see it in action is another story. This is something the Yankees and Severino have to fix, obviously, but it is easier said than done. Tipping pitches happens subconsciously (duh) and you’re talking about changing muscle memory and things like that. Once a pitcher has to start thinking about his mechanics, he’s in trouble. It’s not as simple as “hey, stop doing that.” I wish it were.

Here’s the other thing: Pitch-tipping does not explain all of Severino’s second half issues. It would be cool if it did. The Yankees and Severino would have the explanation and could go to work fixing things. But what about his decline in fastball velocity?

In mid-July, Severino went from routinely sitting 98-99 mph to sitting 96-97 mph, which is still very good, but is down a few ticks from earlier in the season. It’s not a scary drop — Severino didn’t suddenly start sitting 91-92 mph, you know? — because, if anything, Severino went back to his 2017 first half velocity. It wasn’t until the second half last year that his velocity really jumped into the upper-90s and stayed there. That didn’t happen in the second half.

Also, what about his slider? Severino’s go-to pitch lost a little vertical movement in the second half and the spin rate dipped quite a bit too. His slider has an extraordinary spin rate. At 2,788 rpm, Severino’s slider had far and away the highest spin rate among pitchers who threw their slider at least 1,200 times the last two seasons. Marcus Stroman was a distant second at 2,703 rpm. Tyson Ross (2,662 rpm) and Justin Verlander (2,606 rpm) are the only others over 2,600 rpm. And yet, check out Severino’s slider spin rate this year:

Big dip in the second half. Severino went from averaging 2,913 rpm with his slider in the first half to 2,798 rpm in the second half. Similar to the fastball velocity, the slider still had an elite spin rate in the second half, but it wasn’t what we were used to seeing. This is the sorta thing I’m talking about when I say we spend too much time focusing on pitch-tipping. There’s more important stuff going on here. Why’d his velocity decline? Why’d his slider lose bite? Those are far more pressing matters to me.

I don’t think Severino was injured. Pedro Martinez said during one of his postseason broadcasts that Severino told him he was hurt, but that got shot down. “I don’t know where he got that, but I didn’t say (anything about being hurt) … I care about my arm and being healthy. So I’m not going to go out there and compete if I’m not healthy,” Severino said later than night when asked about Pedro’s claim. I’ve never seen an injured pitcher throwing mid-to-upper-90s with a nasty slider, which Severino still did in the second half. If he was injured, he looked better than any injured pitcher I’ve ever seen.

Personally, I think Severino just hit a wall and was fatigued. He’s a 24-year-old kid who, as of the All-Star break, had thrown 337.2 innings in the previous 16 months, many of them intense innings in a postseason race or the postseason itself. And, because the Yankees went to Game Seven of the ALCS last year, Severino had that much less time to recover in the offseason. Severino’s thrown 407.2 innings the last two years. That’s an awful lot of work for a young pitcher. He might have just run out of gas. Hopefully an offseason of rest fixes everything.

What’s Next?

Severino is entering his money makin’ years. He is arbitration-eligible for the first of four times as a Super Two this offseason, and MLBTR projects a $5.1M salary in 2019. When the Yankees sent Severino to Triple-A in 2016, they kept him down juuust long enough to push his free agency back from the 2021-22 offseason to the 2022-23 offseason. He will be arbitration-eligible four times instead of the usual three though, which equals more money.

The Yankees are not aggressive with long-term extensions for players under team control — the last player they extended was Brett Gardner the year before he was due to become a free agent — and that is especially true for pitchers. As best I can tell, these are the last two contract extensions the Yankees have given to pitchers in their pre-arbitration or arbitration years:

  • Javy Vazquez: Four years, $45M covering one arbitration year (2004) and three free agent years (2005-07).
  • Andy Pettitte: Three years, $25.5M with a club option covering three arbitration years (2000-02) and one free agent year (2003).

Vazquez was one year away from free agency when the Yankees got him from the Expos and they wanted to make sure they wouldn’t lose him after the season, hence the four-year contract before he ever even threw a pitch in pinstripes. Pettitte was Pettitte. He’d already been a key member of multiple World Series championship teams and the Yankees gained cost certainty over his arbitration years plus an option for a free agent year.

I don’t think the Yankees will look to sign Severino to an extension this offseason. Not because of his second half. Because it’s just not something they do. Granted, they haven’t had many young pitchers worth extending over the years — Chien-Ming Wang is the only one who jumps to mind and he had a history of serious shoulder problems in the minors — but they haven’t really extended anyone. Gardner, Robinson Cano, that’s about it over the last decade.

In all likelihood, the Yankees will sign Severino to a 2019 contract, see how he performs next year, then reevaluate whether to open up long-term contract discussions next offseason. Another season with 200+ strikeouts and an ERA and a FIP in the low-3.00s will probably force the team to think about a long-term deal a little more seriously. Right now, I think they stay year-to-year with Severino, and we’ll see him back out there on Opening Day 2019.

The Tantalizing Sixth Starter [2018 Season Review]

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Not counting that weird two-inning spot start by Chad Green that gave everyone an extra day of rest, the Yankees made it all the way until mid-June before needing a sixth starter last season. A minor left hamstring issue sent CC Sabathia to the disabled list for two weeks. His replacement, Luis Cessa, made his first start on June 18th, in the team’s 67th game of the season. Going that long without needing a sixth starter is pretty good!

This season the Yankees needed their sixth starter in early-May. Jordan Montgomery exited his May 1st start after one inning with an injury that would eventually lead to Tommy John surgery. Long man Domingo German came out of the bullpen, shoved for four innings in Houston, then joined the rotation. German pitched more this season than you may realize. His team ranks:

  • Starts: 14 (fifth behind Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, and Sonny Gray)
  • Innings: 85.2 (fifth behind Severino, Tanaka, Sabathia, Gray)
  • Strikeouts: 102 (sixth behind Severino, Tanaka, Sabathia, Gray, and Dellin Betances)

Who knew German finished fifth on the Yankees in innings? He made 14 starts and seven relief appearances and finished with a 5.57 ERA (4.39 FIP) and a very good strikeout rate (27.2%), a good walk rate (8.8%), and a not good ground ball rate (37.4%). Like seemingly everyone else, German was much better as a reliever (3.12 ERA and 3.22 FIP) than as a starter (6.19 ERA and 4.68 FIP).

A very good start to German’s stint in the rotation quickly gave way to inconsistency and a trip to the minors, and, eventually, the disabled list. German missed most of the second half with a nerve issue in his elbow before resurfacing as a seldom-used September call-up. Let’s review Little Sunday’s season.

A Candidate For An Opener

German replaced Montgomery in that May 1st game and threw four scoreless innings against the Astros. It was impressive. Five days later he made his first big league start and struck out nine in six no-hit innings against the Indians while being held to a pitch count (he worked out of the bullpen in previous weeks). This was the “wow the Yankees might really have something here” moment.

German’s first start was incredible. Things went downhill after that. Next time out the Athletics tagged him for six run in five innings. In his next start after that, German gave up six runs in 3.2 innings to the Rangers. Following that stellar first start, German allowed at least four runs in each of his next four starts. He finished the year with more starts with 6+ runs allowed (four) than starts with fewer than three runs allowed (three).

In his 14 starts German had a 6.19 ERA (4.68 FIP) while averaging fewer than five innings per start (4.88 innings per start, to be exact.) To make matters worse, he consistently put the Yankees in an early hole. German allowed a first inning run in seven of his 14 starts. Four times he allowed multiple runs in the first inning. His numbers as a starting pitcher:

  • First Inning: 8.36 ERA (5.52 FIP) and .283/.348/.667 against
  • All Other Innings: 5.63 ERA (4.19 FIP) and .232/.314/.431 against

The ERA is still high after the first inning, for sure, but a little more help from the bullpen stranding runners would’ve been nice, plus everything else is much better. The batting lines do not compare and neither do the home run rates (2.57 HR/9 vs. 1.49 HR/9). That first inning of the game, the only inning in which a team is guaranteed to send their best hitters to the plate, was a big problem for German.

I wrote about using an opener for German once and mentioned it several more times. Getting German away from the top of the other team’s lineup the first time through the order seemed worthwhile. The Yankees could’ve used Jonathan Holder or Chad Green or David Robertson to open before giving the ball to German for innings two through whatever. Hopefully six, but even five would’ve sufficed. The Yankees never did that and German’s first inning woes against the other team’s best hitters put New York down early in half his starts. Harrumph.

The Measurables That Make You Want To Believe

Go watch that video of German’s start against the Indians again. This dude’s stuff is super legit. He’s got a mid-90s heater with some run, a snappy breaking ball that dives out of the zone, and a hard changeup with big time fade. Nothing the guy throws is straight and I suspect at least part of his command trouble stems from the liveliness of his stuff. When your pitches move like that, it can be hard to locate them.

The measurables on German’s stuff are awfully good. He checks all the boxes when it comes to velocity, spin rate, and things like that. Check it out (MLB averages in parentheses):

Fastball Curveball Changeup
Velocity 94.5 mph (92.9 mph) 81.9 mph (78.3 mph) 87.4 mph (84.2 mph)
Spin Rate 2,498 rpm (2,238 rpm) 2,507 rpm (2,493 mph) 2,392 rpm (1,774 rpm)
Whiffs-per-Swing 27.5% (19.7%) 41.3% (32.0%) 35.8% (31.1%)
Ground Balls 29.9% (39.5%) 38.2% (47.0%) 50.0% (50.4%)

There are two negatives in that table. One, German’s fastball and curveball ground ball rates are comfortably below-average. That doesn’t mean they’ll be below-average forever. They could improve with experience and natural development. In 2018 though, they were below-average. And two, German’s changeup spin rate is too high. You want a low spin rate on the changeup so it tumbles down and out of the zone. His spun too much this year.

Aside from that, man does it look good. Excellent velocity and comfortably above-average whiff-per-swing rates across the board. German’s fastball spin rate is very good. It’s right up there with Aroldis Chapman (2,499 rpm), Max Scherzer (2,486 rpm), and Corey Knebel (2,477 rpm). There is much more to life than velocity and spin rate, believe me, but you can’t fake it. Either you can throw the ball hard and make it spin, or you can’t. German can.

There’s a chance German will fall by the wayside like countless other great stuff/bad command pitchers. It happens. A lot. In German’s case, I can’t help but watch him and want to believe. The stuff is so good. This guy was a former top prospect with the Marlins, remember. Can German ever get over the hump and turn his impressive stuff into consistent MLB success? We’ve seen flashes, but it hasn’t happened yet.

What’s Next?

The Yankees and German have reached a crossroads. He is now out of minor league options, meaning he can’t be sent to the minors without clearing waivers, and I see little chance of that happening. German is young enough (26) and his stuff is good enough that he’d get claimed, I think. Some rebuilding team would take a chance on him given the essentially free acquisition cost. I sure would.

One of three things will happen with German this offseason. One, he’ll stick with the Yankees and compete for a job in Spring Training. Two, they’ll trade him. Maybe as part of a larger package, maybe in a minor trade, or maybe as a way to unload salary a la Bryan Mitchell in the Chase Headley trade last winter. Or three, the Yankees will designate German for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot and (probably) lose him on waivers.

I’d say sticking with the Yankees is most likely, followed by a trade. I can’t see them giving German away for nothing on waivers. Not yet, anyway. Maybe things’ll change at midseason next year. Right now, I think he sticks or gets traded. I would really like to see German in a one inning “air it out” relief role. His command stinks, but you can hide bad command in the bullpen. Maybe German could out-stuff hitters a la Betances and Chapman as a reliever? I hope we get a chance to find out next season.

Dealin’ David Robertson continues to, well, deal [2018 Season Review]

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More of this in 2019, please! (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

One of the more exciting moments in mid-2017 was getting David Robertson back from the White Sox.

Ostensibly, Robertson could have been considered the third most important piece with Todd Frazier to shore up third base and Tommy Kahnle producing a better season to date. But there’s nothing like getting a welcomed old face back in the fold.

By the end of 2018, Robertson proved himself to be the best part exchanged in the deal. He followed up his rebound in 2017 with another strong season as he cemented himself in Aaron Boone’s circle of trust in relief.

Fireman Dave

Robertson’s numbers as a whole were slightly down in 2018, though they still trumped his 2016 performance. His ERA increased from 1.84 to 3.23 while his FIP went up from 2.57 to 2.97. Down below, you’ll see more about why his numbers decreased, but it was still a strong season for the reliable righty.

Robertson was used more as a traditional late-inning reliever to begin the year, not pitching before the seventh inning until mid-May. That didn’t preclude him from high leverage innings, just meant that Boone was going to others (Chad Green, for instance) in earlier fireman roles.

As time went on, Robertson found himself in different spots, particularly after the Yankees added Zach Britton. Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman were cemented as the eighth and ninth inning guys, giving Robertson the opportunity to put out earlier fires.

The right-hander finished the year with 33 shutdowns and 11 meltdowns, the latter a career-worst, though just by a hair. He produced a Win Probability Added of 1.54 for the season.

Trending Up, Trending Down

A funny thing happened in Robertson’s age-33 season: His velocity actually increased! He averaged 92.3 mph on his heater and 83.8 mph on his curveball. that was his hardest fastball since 2011 and his hardest curveball ever.

Despite his increased velocity and reliance on his curveball (more on that later), Robertson saw an increase in contact against him. However, a lot of it on out-of-the-zone pitches. That may have been simply due to hitters chasing his curve. Thanks to the increased contact, he didn’t get as many swings and misses out of the zone, perhaps due to hitters sitting off-speed.

As a whole, Robertson wasn’t quite as dominant in 2018, which comes down to his fundamentals. His prodigious strikeout rate fell by 6.4 percent to 32.2 percent (still great!) while his walk rate went up 0.5 percent. He allowed one more home run. His 9.2 percent walk rate was his second-highest since 2011.

However, some of the 2017 performance had been smoke and mirrors. He posted a career-best 95 percent strand rate in his half season with the Yankees and that fell precipitously to 67.5 in 2018. Regardless, Robertson still posted strong numbers, maintaining an important role in the Bombers’ bullpen.

Experimentation and Adaptation

Like any veteran pitcher, Robertson has had to change over the years. Early on, it was adding a cutter to his mix skew his fastball-curveball approach. Now, he’s moved with baseball trends and thrown the fewest percentage of fastballs in career. He throws his heater (almost exclusively a cutter) just 42.5 percent of the time, down 5.9 percent from a year ago and 38.4 percent from its peak six seasons ago. Additionally, he’s worked in two-seamers and changed everything about how he pitched just a few seasons ago.

With fewer fastballs has come an increased reliance on his curveball. He throws the primary breaking pitch 47.4 percent of the time, eclipsing his fastball for the first time in his career. This isn’t something novel in that the rest of the league have encourage their pitchers to throw their best pitches more often.

Despite increased velocity, his fastball was less effective in 2018, producing a negative pitch value for just the second time (2016). On the other hand, his curveball was nearly or even more effective, depending on the source. He added some differentiation with his slider that he started experimenting with the last few years, tossing the harder breaking ball 14.4 percent of the time with good results.

Mike has detailed Robertson messing with new arm angles, dropping down and trying to throw off the rhythm of hitters. It’s been infrequent, but the wily vet trusts the gimmick enough to use it in the most important spots. For instance, ALDS Game 4 against J.D. Martinez.

One figures we’ll see more tinkering from Robertson as he gets older and utilizes a long career’s worth of wisdom in getting hitters out as his stuff lessens.

Postseason

I’ll drink to David Robertson in the playoffs. (Getty Images)

In the 2017 postseason, Robertson was used in all of the Yankees’ most important situations. He got 10 key outs in the Wild Card Game. He pitched with the Yankees leading by just one in three ALDS appearances. He helped keep the Yankees in striking distance in ALCS Game 2 and was asked to shut down Houston rallies in Games 4 and 6.

This season was decidedly different. Robertson threw 3 2/3 scoreless innings with one walk and seven strikeouts, allowing no hits in the postseason. In his one inning in the Wild Card Game, he allowed two line drives but escaped unscathed.

However, there wasn’t really a high-leverage spot to give him. Dellin Betances usurped him as the most-trusted reliever in high leverage spots in the WCG and ALDS Game 2. Beyond those spots, Robertson was forced to pitch with the Yankees trailing. Not his fault nor should it be a mark against him. Circumstances made it so the Yankees couldn’t insert their best relievers in spots to win games.

(P.S. The photo above isn’t even close to the best David Robertson alcohol photo. Trust me.)

What’s Next?

Robertson’s four-year, $46 million deal he signed with the White Sox has lapsed and he is now a free agent. He was ineligible for a qualifying offer, having received one from the Yankees in 2014.

The 33-year-old reliever has made the odd move of representing himself in free agency, a decision he explained to MLB Trade Rumors. He said it had nothing to do with his agents and more about knowing himself better than anyone else:

“Being a guy that’s hung around long enough to know what I can offer a team and what I would like in return, I feel I’m best suited to have all the discussions necessary to figure out my next contract.”

It makes too much sense for Robertson to be back in pinstripes for the 2019 campaign. He’s proven to be one of the few relievers in baseball that stays at or near an elite level for years on end and he should get multiple years in a free agent deal. The Yankees, meanwhile, will need to bring back or add a reliever with both Robertson and Britton hitting the open market.

The Quiet Dominance of Chad Green [2018 Season Review]

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(Julio Aguilar/Getty)

The Yankees bullpen was the focus of several storylines in 2018; the resurgence of Dellin Betances, the injuries of Aroldis Chapman, the acquisition of Zach Britton, and Aaron Boone’s strange fascination with A.J. Cole immediately spring to mind. Chad Green’s continued brilliance sort of fell by the wayside as a result, despite the fact that he led the group with:

  • 75.2 IP
  • 1.78 BB/9
  • 6.27 K/BB
  • 2.3 bWAR

We, as fans of the Yankees, know that Green is brilliant, and have a strong sense of confidence whenever he enters the game – but he is nevertheless one of the best kept secrets in the bullpen (at least insofar as any Yankee can fly under the radar). Such is the life of a middle reliever without the flash of his teammates, I suppose.

Let’s break it down a bit further.

From Multi-Inning Weapon to One-Inning Guy

A huge part of Green’s appeal in 2017 – aside from his 1.83 ERA and 13.4 K/9, of course – was his ability to eat innings out of the bullpen. He recorded 4+ outs in 30 of his 40 appearances, and went 2+ innings 17 times. In an era with more pitching changes and increased specialization, Green’s ability to be incredibly effective for multiple innings was a boon for the Yankees. And the expectation was that he would continue to serve that role for the team in 2018.

It didn’t quite work out that way, though. Green recorded 4+ outs 20 times this year, spread across 63 appearances, and he only went 2+ innings 11 times. He was quite good once again, pitching to a 2.50 ERA in 75.2 IP, so it’s difficult to criticize his deployment by Aaron Boone – especially when injuries occurred and pieces had to be shifted around. However, it does make one wonder what was left on the table this year, given that Green prefers pitching multiple innings; and it’s much easier to find a reliever that can get you two or three outs than it is to find one that can get four or five (or, in three cases in 2017, nine-plus).

It’s difficult to parse whether Green is better in longer outings, though. The greatest issue to overcome is the simple fact that a pitcher is far more likely to be pulled if he’s not performing well – so we can’t really say for sure that Green wouldn’t have went deeper into the game if he didn’t allow 2 runs in 0.2 IP on April 5, or if he hadn’t allowed three base-runners in 0.2 IP on August 2 and again on August 26.

That being said, he does do better with more rest. Here’s 2017:

(Baseball-Reference)

And here’s 2018:

(Baseball-Reference)

Seven of Green’s 40 appearances (17.5%) in 2017 came with 0 or 1 day of rest, as compared to 31 of his 63 turns (49.2%) in 2018. That’s a massive difference in usage, and it seems possible – if not probable – that this played a role in his dip from untouchable to merely excellent this year. And it almost certainly played a role in the drop in his fastball’s effectiveness.

Let’s Talk About That Fastball

Saying that Green relies on his fastball is a hell of an understatement, so let’s take a look at it in graph form:

In 2016, Green threw just over 39% four-seamers. That number jumped all the way up to 68.6% in 2017, which makes sense given that he moved from the rotation to the bullpen full-time. And there was another sizable jump this year, with four-seamers representing 86.3% of his offerings. That meant that his sinker and cutter, which were already used sparingly, disappeared, and his slider usage was slashed by more than half.

And, as Mike outlined just a few weeks ago, his fastball wasn’t nearly as dominant this year:

2017 2018 MLB AVG
Average Velocity 96.1 mph 96.5 mph 93.2 mph
Average Spin Rate 2,484 rpm 2,444 rpm 2,257 rpm
Whiffs per Swing 37.9% 27.3% 19.7%
AVG .121 .211 .268
ISO .078 .118 .199
wOBA .168 .253 .351
xwOBA .215 .289 .354

Much like Green himself, the fastball went from untouchable to excellent. And that makes sense, given that he was pitching more often and throwing the pitch more than ever before. Whether this trend continues is the million dollar question with Green, given the general unpredictability of relievers, and the Yankees pipeline of young arms.

Let’s Not Bury the Lede

I feel the need to reiterate that Green was still incredible in 2018. His 2.50 ERA was good for a 175 ERA+, and he was among the elite relievers in all of baseball, ranking:

  • 5th in K/BB
  • 8th in BB/9
  • 13th in fWAR
  • 17th in IP
  • 19th in WPA

There was a drop-off, to be sure, but it was unrealistic to expect Green (or most any reliever for that matter) to be as good as he was in 2017 again. This version of Green would’ve been the best reliever on the majority of the teams in baseball, and he’s not even the best in pinstripes – and that’s awesome.

What’s Next?

Green is entering his final pre-arbitration season, so he’ll be dirt cheap in 2019. And he’s under team control for three years after that, which is also awesome. There’s always the possibility of a trade (and Green has a ton of value because of that team control), but with David Robertson and Zach Britton hitting free agency, it seems likely that Green will be back in pinstripes and holding down the fort in the middle innings next year. And I’m more than okay with that.

The Remarkable J.A. Happ … until October [2018 Season Review]

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(Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

James Anthony Happ started in the Yankees’ Opening Day game in Toronto, albeit as the opposing starter. Like his final start of the year, it featured a home run from the new middle-of-the-order addition and a loss for the veteran lefty.

But in between, Happ provided the Yankees with exactly what they needed after the trade deadline, solidifying a constantly changing spot in the Yankees’ rotation. He did enough to earn the start in ALDS Game 1 and perhaps an extended look in pinstripes next season.

Let’s get into a strong season for Happ despite a disappointing ending.

Before the Trade

In his age-35 season, Happ continued his late-career renaissance while adding a new chip to his resume: an All-Star appearance, earning the save in extra innings. While his AS bid came as the Blue Jays’ lone representative, it was well deserved in the context of his full career as a journeyman fighting to stick in the league before latching on as a mainstay for Toronto in recent seasons.

The Jays were out of contention by midseason, so trading their spare parts became the logical next step. Happ had posted a 10-6 record with a 4.18 ERA over 114 innings for Toronto in 2018. While that ERA was merely league-average, he posted those numbers (which included a career-best strikeout rate) in the AL East, making multiple starts against both the Yankees and Red Sox. He quickly became one of the bigger starting pitching targets at the deadline, particularly with Jacob deGrom off limits in Queens.

Happ would be one of only three 2018 All-Stars dealt before the deadline, with Manny Machado and Brad Hand being the others. Happ became the first starting pitcher to earn an All-Star appearance and be traded in the same season since Drew Pomeranz in 2016.

Filling a Need

On July 26, the Yankees dealt Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney to the Jays to acquire Happ. The trade marked the second straight year that the Yankees had acquired a starter at the deadline (Sonny Gray, Jaime Garcia). This deal would turn out much better than those.

Happ stepped into the rotation spot initially vacated by Jordan Montgomery when he went down with a UCL injury. Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa tried and failed to grab hold of the spot, making the Yankees’ need for a starter. That trio combined for a 5.16 ERA and just south of five innings per start before the trade deadline, though the Yankees went 11-9 in those games.

Beyond Happ’s ability to pitch in the AL East, his historic success against the Red Sox made him an easy target. Before the Yankees acquired him, he had made 19 appearances against Boston and was 7-4 with a 2.65 ERA in 105 2/3 innings. He’d made two starts vs. the Sox in 2018 while with Toronto with one good (7 IP, 1 run, 10 Ks) and one bad (3.2 IP, 5 R, 0 ER, 6 K).

But Happ’s cheap cost and expiring deal added to his appeal for the Pinstripers. Drury had fallen out of a favor in the Bronx while McKinney was stuck behind a handful of outfielders. Dealing McKinney ended up being a case of bad timing as Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier were soon lost for an extended period right after the trade became official.

The Stabilizer

Happ debuted as a Yankee on July 29 with six frames of one-run ball against the Royals at Yankee Stadium. He’d soon go on the DL for the minimum 10 days with hand, mouth and foot disease (Curse you, Mets!), so he missed his first opportunity to face the Sox.

Once he came back, he was as dominant as a relatively soft-tossing lefty can be. He went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA over 11 starts with the Yankees, who went 9-2 in those games. The bullpen blew leads in the sixth and ninth inning, respectively, in the two losses.

Happ was especially strong at Yankee Stadium, where he went 4-0 over seven starts. He struck out just under a batter per game in the Bronx, though he allowed eight home runs.

The veteran went six or more innings in eight of 11 starts. He kept his strikeout rate above career norms, though it wasn’t quite as high as his 2018 numbers in Toronto. He lowered his walk rate, but his home runs rose, allowing 10 in pinstripes.

The Yankees went 2-0 in his regular-season starts vs. Boston. He allowed only four earned runs in 12 innings and all of them came on one swing, a grand slam by World Series MVP Steve Pearce. Eight hits, five walks, 13 Ks, 1 grand slam. The last part isn’t ideal, but he got the job done.

Ultimately, Happ was exactly what the Yankees needed in the regular season. The team needed length out of their starters and some more reliability, both of which he had in spades. While Yankees certainly make playoffs without his contributions, it’s easy to argue that a different deadline acquisition to fix the rotation leads to the Yankees playing the AL Wild Card in Oakland.

(Elsa/Getty Images)

Wrong Time for a Bad Start

His lone playoff start sucked from the start. Happ is a pitcher that relies on his fastball and it was clear he couldn’t command it three batters in. After walking Steve Pearce, J.D. Martinez’s three-run homer put the Yankees on the ropes early. Happ lasted just 11 batters, unable to complete two times through the order.

Aaron Boone made a smart move to pull Happ early when it was clear the then-35-year-old didn’t have it in Game 1. The decision gave the Yankees a chance to win, even with Chad Green allowing two inherited runners to score. They just didn’t come through with the big hit needed in the later innings.

Happ likely wouldn’t have started Game 5 of the ALDS since Masahiro Tanaka would have been available on full rest. Therefore, his next playoff start would have been presumably been Game 1 in Houston if the Yankees made it that far.

What’s Next

Happ is a free agent coming off a three-year, $36-million deal. The Yankees couldn’t issue him a qualifying offer since he was traded mid-season and he likely wouldn’t have gotten one anyway.

With Yankees looking to upgrade the rotation, he may be on his way out and could be replaced by an upgrade like Patrick Corbin. Still, with CC Sabathia returning and Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka the only other starters under contract, the Yankees could add back Happ while bringing in another starter.

Happ turned 36 on Oct. 19, but his age isn’t a reason to give up on him. He has never been the type of guy to blow people away and his fastball velocity actually increased in 2018. It’s not hard to see him sustaining his recent gains, even while pitching at Yankee Stadium.

He’d made sense on a one- or two-year deal, even after the disastrous postseason cameo. Three years, which MLB Trade Rumors has him getting, might be a little rich, even if Rich Hill got a three-year pact going into his age-37 season. Happ would certainly be a nice middle-of-the-rotation piece for 2019.