Looking Ahead

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

There comes a day when you rectify the team you are with the team you want to be; the Yankees can’t seem to make the two things coexist.

On the good side of things, the Yankees lead the American League in both strikeout percentage and walk rate from the mound. They’ve also got a respectable 91 FIP- and a 100 ERA-, suggesting their pitching may still have some room to grow. On the bad side of things, the Yankees have scored the second fewest runs in the AL, just eight more than the lowly Twins. Their 88 wRC+ is also the second worst in the Junior Circuit, just two points ahead of the trailing Twins.

(Stephen Lam/Getty)
(Stephen Lam/Getty)

As Memorial Day is generally the first ‘mile marker’ of the year, today’s as good a time as any to look at the road ahead by reflecting on the road behind. One way of doing that is heading over to FanGraphs and checking out the playoff odds section, which lets you sort by a few things. In the spirit of looking back, here are the Yankees’ playoff odds based on their season to date stats. A 3.9% chance to win the division. An 8.7% chance to win the wild card. Those don’t look good, obviously, thanks to the poor performances the Yankees have turned in at the plate. Bounce backs from Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez would help those numbers creep up, but they’re still fairly low.

If we decide to be more fair to the team and acknowledge the uncharacteristically bad performance at the plate, we can go peek at the playoff odds using rest of season projections instead. Those numbers look a little better–4.5% for the division and 16.4% for the wild card–but they still aren’t anything spectacular.

Their deficits in both the AL East and wild card standings–5.5 and 4.5 games respectively–are not insurmountable, especially considering it’s not quite yet June. But in the AL East, the Yankees have three teams to brush aside, including the first place Red Sox. In the wild card, it’s six teams, including the leading Orioles and Rangers. Allowing for some dramatics, the day of reckoning is fast approaching for the Yankees.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)
(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

At some point soon–maybe by mid-June–they need to make a decision, and an honest one at that. This is something the Yankees have struggled with in recent years, but hopefully it’s something they put some earnest reflection into over the next few weeks. Their playoff odds are bad. The team is flawed in multiple ways. Fighting or a five hundred record or to be ‘in it’ in the last week of the season with some vague, outside, puncher’s chance at the second wild card is not worth it. There are still enough valid pieces on this team that can contribute to next year which can be properly bolstered by jettisoning the right assets.

A smart man who used to comment ’round these parts used to say that the Yankees are a win now and win later team and the Yankees need to focus on the latter at this point in the season. Trade some of the present for some of the future and be honest about it with the fans. Trusting that the fans can handle an honest to goodness rebuild is something the Yankee brass has been reluctant to do, but there’s no better time to start than now. It’s not likely this team is going anywhere in 2016 and preparing for 2017 is the responsible thing to do.

Hal Steinbrenner on possibly selling the Yankees: “What the hell for?”

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

This doesn’t surprise me. While talking to Wally Matthews, Hal Steinbrenner confirmed the family has no plans to sell the Yankees. “It’s our way of keeping our dad’s legacy alive,” he said. “People that know us know we didn’t have the biggest house on the street … We don’t have the lifestyle that would even necessitate us to even think about doing something like that. What the hell for?”

Not only did Hal say there are no plans to sell the team, he said there is a long-term plan in the works to hand the Yankees over to the next generation of Steinbrenners, namely his daughter Katherine, Hank’s children (George and Julia), Jessica Steinbrenner Malloy’s son (Robert Malloy), and Jennifer Steinbrenner Swindal’s son (Stephen Swindal Jr.). They all want to get involved.

“This is a family business and we’re all involved. We all love being a part of this. We all know our dad wanted us to be a part of us, and we all know he’s watching down on us and happy that we’re all a part of it. Believe it or not, to us, that’s a big deal. The idea is, let’s keep it going,” said Hal. “We got a lot of grandkids, and they’re very interested. The idea is, it’s time to let the young elephants in the tent, in George’s words. So it’s begun.”

Forbes valued the Yankees at $3.2 billion at this time last year, though that doesn’t mean the Steinbrenners would ask for $3.2 billion for the team in a sale. It’s more complicated than that. The Dodgers sold for $2 billion a few years ago, but included in the sale was the land around Dodger Stadium and also the potential for a massive television contract, which was signed shortly after the team’s sale. The Yankees can’t sell any land and they have their own network already. The Dodgers sale isn’t a great reference point.

Anyway, I’m not surprised Hal says the team will stay in the family. Owning the Yankees is mighty lucrative, even with the club mired in quasi-contention and both attendance and ratings trending down. And once they get under the luxury tax threshold in a year or two — Hal reiterated to Matthews that that’s the plan — they stand to rake in even more money.

Hal Steinbrenner: “I’m not comfortable with the payroll being too much higher than it is now”

(Mike Stobe/Getty)
(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Today, at the quarterly owners’ meetings in Coral Gables, Hal Steinbrenner told reporters he doesn’t want payroll to climb much higher than it is right now. “I’m not comfortable with the payroll being too much higher than it is now,” he said to Jon Heyman and Bob Nightengale. “(But) we’ve surprised people in the past.”

This isn’t a surprise, right? Payroll has held relatively steady for a decade now even though the new Yankee Stadium opened in 2009 and MLB signed ginormous new national television deals two years ago. To be fair, the Yankees do pay a ton in luxury tax and revenue sharing each year. But still, payrolls around the league are going up while New York’s remain static.

Back of the envelope calculation: the Yankees currently have $223.6M on the books for next season per Cot’s, assuming Aroldis Chapman and Ivan Nova win their arbitration cases. Add in the rest of the 40-man roster and the $12M or so each team has to contribute towards player benefits, and the payroll for luxury tax purposes is around $240M right now.

The Yankees finished last season with a $241.15M payroll for luxury tax purposes and are again right at that number. The salary they took on in the Chapman and Starlin Castro trades replaces what they shed in Chris Capuano, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Garrett Jones after the season. Also, the Yankees still haven’t signed an MLB free agent this winter.

You don’t have to look any further than the Yankees roster to understand why spending huge on free agents all the time isn’t a great idea. That said, I think it’s fair to say the team is not leveraging its financial might as well as they should. The rest of the league is catching up financially, so the market advantages of being a New York team are going to waste.

Hal has maintained his plan is to get under the luxury tax threshold in the near future, which would save the team tens of millions of dollars in luxury tax and revenue sharing. The Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in December, and I assume the $189M threshold will go up with the next CBA. After getting under in 2017, the team could increase payroll substantially. We’ll see.

Hal: “I didn’t want to give those kids up” at the trade deadline

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Two weeks ago the Yankees did relatively little at the trade deadline, acquiring Dustin Ackley in a minor trade with the Mariners and that’s all. The team was connected to almost every available pitcher but nothing came together, mostly because the Yankees were reportedly unwilling to deal their top prospects. That strategy is both understandable and very debatable.

At the owners meetings in Chicago this week, Hal Steinbrenner told Paul Hagen it was essentially his idea to make those top prospects off limits, mentioning several by name. Here’s what Hal said:

“I really don’t think we had the type of glaring need that you would address by giving up one of your top Triple-A prospects,” the managing general partner said Wednesday during the quarterly Owners Meetings. “I just wasn’t going to do it, especially not for a loaner, a guy you’re only going to have for three months or so.”

“Again, I didn’t want to give those kids up,” Steinbrenner said. “We’ve been looking at them for two, three years now. They’ve progressed perfectly, and they’re all sitting there at [Triple-A] Scranton/[Wilkes-Barre]. Any one of them could contribute now if need be. We’ve already seen that in Luis Severino the last two starts. Greg Bird and Aaron Judge. Rob Refsnyder is there. James Pazos, some of the pitchers you’ve seen. Gary Sanchez is having a good year. So we’ve got some talent in Scranton, and we’re not going to give it up.”

Bird was called up earlier today, in case you missed it. He’ll serve as a backup at first base and DH for the time being. There’s really no way to get him in the lineup without sitting Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira, so we’ll see how he’s used going forward.

Many of the team’s top prospects are in Triple-A right now — or in MLB, in the case of Bird and Severino — and those are the most valuable prospects because they’re so close to helping. It made sense to hang onto them … and I also think it made sense to move some of them (not all!) for help at the deadline. The Yankees had obvious needs (pitching, second base) and they were in first place after not going to the postseason the last two years. Would have been cool to get some upgrades.

Anyway, Hal and Brian Cashman and pretty much everyone in the organization said this past offseason the Yankees will rely more on younger players going forward, and it wasn’t just talk. They’ve walked the walk this year by calling up Bird, Severino, Jacob Lindgren, Slade Heathcott, Mason Williams, and a bunch of others throughout the summer. It’s fun! As long as it doesn’t hurt the team’s chances of playing in October, of course.

Hal on Jeter rejoining the Yankees in some capacity: “He will … I have no doubt”

Derek got slimed by Nickelodeon recently. (Kevin Winter/Getty)
Derek got slimed by Nickelodeon recently. (Kevin Winter/Getty)

Aside from the occasional photo globetrotting with his girlfriend, Derek Jeter has managed to keep a low profile since retiring last season. Are you surprised? You shouldn’t be. Jeter perfected the art of keeping a low profile despite being a megastar in New York.

During a recent interview, Hal Steinbrenner told Marc Topkin he expects Jeter to one day rejoin the Yankees in some capacity. Not as a player, of course, but in some sort of ex-player role. Whatever it is Reggie Jackson does, for example. Here’s what Hal told Topkin:

“He will be (involved in some capacity), I have no doubt,” Hal Steinbrenner said. “He lives here in Tampa. . . . I think he’s just trying to relax for a year. God knows he earned it. It’s a good relationship and I have no doubt he’ll be involved in whatever way he wants to be involved.”

We all know Jeter wants to own a team one day — “That’s the next goal, buddy. Calling the shots, not answering to someone, that’s what interests me,” he said to reporters last summer — and hey, who can blame him? We all not so secretly want to own a team one day. It’s good work if you can get it.

Could the Yankees let Derek buy a piece of team? I suppose, but who really knows. Hal simply said Jeter would “be a great owner, no doubt about it,” when asked. Either way, I’m certain Jeter has a job waiting for him with the Yankees whenever he’s ready to get back into baseball. It benefits both sides to keep the relationship going.

Hal Steinbrenner confirms Yankees will try to get under luxury tax threshold in two years

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

As expected, Hal Steinbrenner has confirmed the Yankees will try to get under the luxury tax threshold in two years or so. The team tried and failed to get under the $189M threshold last year. If you’ve been paying attention at all the last few years, this should be no surprise. Hal is very focused on the bottom line.

Here’s what Steinbrenner told Bill Madden:

“I found (being called cheap) very interesting,” he said, smiling, “given that we offered $25 million (for Moncada) and spent substantially in the international market (a reported $26.82 million in bonuses and penalties for greatly exceeding their bonus allotment). I’m not saying we’ll never give another seven-year contract, but going in you know you’re probably only going to get three-four good years out of it. It remains my goal to get under that $189 million (luxury-tax threshold), but it’s not going to happen for at least two more years when these big contracts we have expire. But I’ve continued to say you shouldn’t need $200 million to win a championship.”

Hal has really worn out that “you shouldn’t need $200M to win a World Series” line in recent years. I guess no one has told him there have only been 12 individual teams with a $200M+ payroll in baseball history, with nine going to the postseason and one winning the World Series (2009 Yankees). One out of 12 is a helluva lot better than whatever the odds have been for all the non-$200M payroll teams in history, but I digress.

Anyway, the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires after the 2016 season and I expect the luxury tax threshold to be raised at that time. It has to go up. The league’s revenues are through the roof and a dozen teams will open this season with a payroll at or above $120M (six will be at or above $160M). With salaries and revenue only going up, a $189M luxury tax threshold doesn’t make sense anymore. It did when the current CBA was ratified in 2012, but come 2016 it should be at $200M at the very least, if not $210M.

Unlike the last time the Yankees tried to get under the luxury tax, they do have a lot of expensive contracts coming off the books soon. Mark Teixeira ($22.5M luxury tax hit) and Carlos Beltran ($15M) will be gone after 2016, maybe CC Sabathia ($24.4M) too. Alex Rodriguez ($27.5M) and Sabathia will definitely be off the books after 2017. Between shedding those big contracts and the inevitable raising of the luxury tax threshold, the Yankees will have a much better chance of getting under the tax threshold in two (or three) years than they did last year.

I totally understand why Hal wants to get under the luxury tax threshold — luxury tax is basically wasted money and no one likes throwing money away — and it’s his team, so he’s free to do whatever he wants. That said, the Yankees have a distinct advantage over the rest of the league because of their market, and focusing on getting under the luxury tax threshold is essentially tossing that advantage aside and leveling the playing field. The other 29 teams should send Hal a nice thank you note for that.

Whether you like it or not, the Yankees are going to try to get under the luxury tax threshold in the near future. My advice to Hal: stop talking about it. The media is going to ask, I know, but just say you’ve discussed it already and move on. Believe it or not, the fans don’t want to hear the owner talking about reducing payroll in the future, especially coming off back-to-back postseason-less years and with the team hardly a lock for October this year. So Hal, please just keep it to yourself the next few years. You’re the only one in favor of this.

Hal Speaks: Farm System, Offseason, Coaches

Hal Steinbrenner appeared on Michael Kay’s radio show yesterday and, among other things, he apologized to Yankees fans for the team’s second straight postseason-less year. “I apologize. We did not do the job this year. We know what you expect of us, and we expect the same thing of ourselves, and we certainly did what we thought we could do in the offseason to field a pretty good team come April 1st, but it didn’t work out,” he said. The full interview is above, but if you don’t want to sit through all 20 minutes of it, here’s the Cliff’s Notes version:

  • On incorporating young players going forward: “There’s no doubt, young players, player development, that’s going to play a big part, because you’re correct, it’s hard to just play in the free agent market and bring a bunch of veterans on board because you’ve got a lot of parity in the league now … We’ve had our struggles in player development and the minor leagues.”
  • On the upcoming offseason: “I’ve been a little trade averse as far as getting rid of younger kids as you saw last year, but we’re going to have to analyze. We know we need a shortstop, of course. I think with (Ivan) Nova coming back probably not until May, I think we need a starting pitcher. And then we’re going to have to go from there. As we do, every offseason, we’re going to look at everybody.”
  • On the $189M luxury tax threshold: “The decision to go over 189 was for one player and that was (Masahiro) Tanaka, and I have no regrets about that because he’s going to be everything that we saw in the first three months of the season. He’s going to be great.” Steinbrenner indicated the team will try to get under the luxury tax threshold again sometime in the future. The Collective Bargaining Agreement expires following the 2016 season and the threshold will probably go up then.
  • On the coaching staff: “The hitting coach is responsible for the hitters, the pitching coach is responsible for the pitchers, and we’ve got an infield coach responsible for defense and fielding. That comes with any position in life. You are liable for what goes on. We have not made any decisions yet as to what we’re going to do with any of the coaches. That will be the first step to look at the manager and the coaches as we do every single year.”
  • On making decisions and changes: “I don’t have an answer to that because I don’t make rash decisions. I want to talk to all my people, including having long discussions with (Brian Cashman) and his people and really get into, could anything have been different or did these guys just have a down year, these three or four guys? But, rest assured, we’re going to get to the bottom of it. And if I do deem that somebody is liable, or if I do deem that somebody is responsible, that things could have been better, I will act.”
  • On Alex Rodriguez and the possibility of releasing him: “I’m not a lawyer, so (I’m won’t) get into what can be done to a contract or not. But like I said, when he’s healthy, he’s an asset. We need those kind of assets. We need the hitting … If he’s healthy, he’s going to be an asset to the team, and I would never not want that.”
  • Steinbrenner also said they are planning extensive interviews to replace VP of Baseball Ops Mark Newman, who is retiring this winter. Newman has run the farm system for more than a decade now.

Since we’re on subject, also make sure check out Joel Sherman’s recent sit down with Hal as well. He discussed some of the same stuff as in the radio interview plus some other topics as well.