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River Ave. Blues » Roy Halladay » Page 2

Halladay out of the AL East a temporary relief

February 22, 2010 by Joe Pawlikowski 30 Comments

Over the past four seasons, Roy Halladay has started 18 games against the Yankees, including 12 over the past two. In those 124 innings he’s struck out 84 Yankees and walked just 20, allowing 13 home runs and 38 runs, 34 earned, overall. That gives him an ERA of 2.47 and a FIP of 3.69, against his four-year rates of a 3.11 ERA and 3.26 FIP. Clearly, the Yankees are glad to have Halladay out of the division. His numbers, however, appear to be a bit out of line.


Photo credit: AP/Bill Kostroun)

The Yankees have scored more runs than any other team in the AL over the past four years, leading the league three times. How is it, then, that Halladay has performed better against them than he has against the rest of the league? The difference is quite large, over a half run per nine innings. Over the same, admittedly small, 124-inning sample, he would have allowed 43 runs to the rest of the league, and keeping with the same earned-to-unearned run ratio he would have allowed 48.

The easy, abstract narrative is that Halladay rises to the occasion. When facing the Orioles and the Royals he’s merely among the league’s best pitchers. When facing the very best offensive team in the American League, Halladay turns into something greater, a man without peer. Or, if we want to turn the narrative to the Yankees’ hitters, we can say that they beat up on weak pitchers, but show their true colors when facing the best. Either way, there’s not much evidence to substantiate such claims.

The Red Sox have sported formidable lineups over the past four years, and have contended with the Yankees in each season. They haven’t scored quite as many runs, but they’re still near the top. As against the Yankees, Halladay started 18 games against the Red Sox, and lasted two more innings. Yet his ERA, 3.64, and FIP, 4.12, are substantially higher — not only higher than the Yankees, but higher than his performance against the league. That distribution makes sense. While Halladay ranks among the best, he still probably faces more trouble from better teams. But still, not the Yankees.

The claim of the Yankees faltering against stronger competition is true, but it’s no more true for the Yankees than with any other team. Again, we expect that they’ll beat up on the weaker competition and struggle against the stronger. As we saw in the 2009 breakdowns, the Yankees fare all over the place against the league’s best pitchers. We also know that these performances come in small samples, and can fluctuate greatly from year to year. For instances, we saw Jon Lester absolutely dominate the Yankees in 2008 before they tattooed him in 2009.

That’s not to say that neither of those factors play into the results we’ve seen. Maybe Halladay does come into starts against the Yankees a bit more focussed than normal. Maybe the Yankees are a bit intimidated by him and take swing of a slightly lesser quality. Combine that with the low predictive value of short sample size numbers, and it’s not as difficult to understand why the Yankees performed worse against Halladay.

Another consideration lies in the FIP/ERA discrepancies. There’s an enormous gap when Halladay faces the Yankees, about 1.22 runs. Over the much larger four-year sample, 7.5 times larger than the one against the Yankees, Halladay’s ERA and FIP are separated by just 0.25 runs. As Halladay pitches more and more innings against the Yankees, I’d expect that discrepancy to lessen, moving Halladay’s numbers against the Yankees more in line with his career, or at least recent, rates — perhaps even higher, because of the Yankees’ potent offense. Similarly, I’d expect his numbers against the Red Sox to fall, though perhaps not all the way to his recent rates because, again, the Sox sport a better than average offense.

The good news for the Yankees is that they’ll be facing pitchers of a lesser quality than Halladay in 2010. As Kevin Long said, “It became a joke. Sometimes it felt as if he was out there on one day’s rest just to face us.” Chances are the Blue Jays won’t deliberately line up Halladay’s replacement to pitch against the Yankees whenever possible. Instead, the workload will be spread normally across the entire rotation. It means more of lesser pitchers, and it should improve the Yankees’ performance against the Blue Jays in 2010.

From Toronto’s view, however, that’s just fine. They made the trade knowing what they were giving up when facing the best of the AL East. The idea, so they hope, is to eventually replace Halladay with Kyle Drabek while upgrading the rest of their rotation, while improving their offense with Brett Wallace. The balance of power might shift a few years down the road, but for 2010 the Yankees should see something of an improvement against the Jays.

Filed Under: Offense Tagged With: Roy Halladay

Report: Yanks offered Montero for Halladay

January 15, 2010 by Mike 149 Comments

Via Richard Griffin, the Yankees offered Jesus Montero to the Jays in exchange for Roy Halladay back when Toronto was still fielding offers for their ace and the former Cy Young Award winner. And that’s it. The Yanks’ brain trust offered a straight up, one-for-one swap, however Toronto turned it down and went on their merry way.

Can you imagine that? It would have been quite the blockbuster, no? I’m not sure how I would have received such a deal. On one hand it’s the best pitcher in baseball in exchange for a Double-A prospect without a clear cut position, but on the other hand, it’s Jesus frickin’ Montero. Wow.

Filed Under: Asides, Irresponsible Rumormongering Tagged With: Jesus Montero, Roy Halladay

Halladay set to join Phils in three team blockbuster

December 14, 2009 by Mike 358 Comments

Via MLBTR, Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay is set to join the defending NL Champs … as soon as he agrees to a contract extension. Based on what we know right now, Cliff Lee would go to the Mariners, and presumably a boatload of young players would go to Toronto. The Yanks have been connected to Halladay all offseason, and Joel Sherman mentions that they talked to Phightin’s about Lee, however didn’t like the price.

Filed Under: Asides, Hot Stove League Tagged With: Roy Halladay

Yanks still exploring the Halladay possibility

December 9, 2009 by Joe Pawlikowski 135 Comments

“Pitching, pitching, pitching — and left field.” Whenever we’re talking about potential Yankees moves, we’ll refer back to that mantra from Cashman. He made the team’s priorities clear on Day 1 of the Winter Meetings, and with the reported signing of Andy Pettitte and trade for Curtis Granderson, we can see he’s serious. There are multiple instances of “pitching” in that mantra, though, meaning the Yankees aren’t done strengthening their 2010 pitching staff, whether that be through free agency or a trade.

The biggest name on the trade market, of course, is Roy Halladay, and the Yankees continue to monitor the situation. Joel Sherman likens the situation to Mark Teixeira. Last year, after signing CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, Cashman had to convince ownership to expand payroll for Teixeira. His arguments were strong, and obviously ownership eventually agreed. If Cashman really wants to add Halladay for 2010, he’ll have to come up with an even stronger case.

Sherman notes two points on Teixeira that won over Hal Steinbrenner last winter. First was the swing from the Red Sox to the Yankees. Teixeira was clearly the Sox’s top target, and to lure him away would not only improve the Yankees, but hurt the Sox. It’s not smart to make moves just because of your rival, however, and that’s the basis for the second point. The Yankees would eventually need another bat, and Teixeira appeared to be the best not only in 2009, but for years to come. Those points, unfortunately, won’t play as well with Halladay.

Yes, the Red Sox are involved on Halladay, but it doesn’t appear they’re as serious as they were on Teixeira. That could change in the next few days or weeks, but Theo Epstein has indicated that the next year or two are part of a “bridge period,” which could mean that the Sox won’t make an enormous splash. Again, this could all be posturing and could change at any time. But as it stands now, the Sox are not as serious players for Halladay as they were for Teixeira.

To the second point, the Yankees might, at some point in the near future, need to add another big arm. Future free agent markets, however, could feature a number of them. Halladay himself, in fact, could be a free agent at the end of next season. A number of other arms could hit the market as well, so the Yankees certainly could find that big arm without sacrificing prospects. Plus, if Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes takes a step forward this season, the need for a big arm will be reduced.

Cashman’s trump card this year, should he choose to play it, is the dominance factor. A rotation of Sabathia, Halladay, Burnett, Pettitte, and Chamberlain/Hughes would be the league’s best. Even if they lost one of those five to injury, they would still be in decent shape. Then, as Sherman notes, when they get to the playoffs they wouldn’t have to start anyone of short rest. Pettitte would be an excellent fill-in for Game 4s. In that sense, the Yankees could justify expanding payroll for Halladay.

Yet payroll is not the only consideration. The Blue Jays will not give away Halladay. It will cost plenty in prospects. If the Yankees are so inclined, the Blue Jays have great interest in Jesus Montero. He is the Yankees top prospect, and his loss would be even tougher because the Yankees just traded their second best prospect, Austin Jackson. Will the Yankees trade one of the top five hitting prospects in the game, even for Roy Halladay, even when their next best hitting prospect isn’t nearly as good?

Further complication the issue is how the Blue Jays view Montero. He’s still a catcher, and figures to start 2010 at that position in either AA or AAA if he stays with the Yankees. According to Sherman, however, the Blue Jays view him as a first baseman, and accordingly wouldn’t accept him as the center piece of a deal. This seems like posturing to me — an attempt to get even more out of the Yankees. Most of the reporters covering the trade assume that the Yankees would have to package Hughes or Chamberlain with Montero to acquire Halladay. I just don’t see that.

Best pitcher in baseball or not, Halladay is under contract for only one more year, at a slightly below open market salary. The Blue Jays have a right to demand two top flight players for him, but, because you never get more than what you ask, they’re going to start high. As they continue talking to teams, I think that price will come down. Montero himself will not get it done, but Montero and a lesser pitcher might. This, of course, depends on offers from other teams, but the general idea is that no team will come close to a Montero/Chamberlain package.

Over the past few days, the Angels have emerged as a Halladay suitor. The latest report has them willing to trade Erick Aybar, a player they considered untouchable in July. They’ve since traded prospect Sean Rodriguez and lose Chone Figgins to free agency, though, so they’d be suffering a huge hit by losing Aybar — it could lead to a left side of the infield featuring Brandon Wood and Miguel Tejada. But even with Aybar, the Angels don’t appear to have an adequate pitcher. Reports have mentioned Joe Saunders, but he’s arbitration eligible and not a top flight starter. The Jays, knowing their position in the AL East, want young, controllable, high-ceiling players. Saunders and Aybar likely won’t cut it.

If the Angels don’t have what the Blue Jays seek, if the Red Sox want to build with young players over the next two years, and if the Dodgers’ ownership situation precludes any big payroll additions, the Yankees are in a good position on Halladay. He still won’t come cheap, but it’s doubtful he’ll cost Montero and Hughes/Chamberlain. That should make the Yankees a bit more flexible in dealing for him. I still doubt they do it, but given their position compared to other teams, the chance is there if they want it.

Filed Under: Hot Stove League Tagged With: Roy Halladay

Updated: Did Pettitte reject Yanks’ first offer?

December 7, 2009 by Mike 39 Comments

Update (11:54 a.m.): Despite earlier reports to the contrary, Mark Feinsand says that the Yankees have not yet made an offer to Andy Pettitte. Indications are that the team will make him a one-year offer some time today in excess of the $10.5 million he earned in 2009. “They don’t intend to low-ball him,” Feinsand’s industry source said.

Update (7:22am): Buster Olney says that Pettitte has decided to pitch in 2010, and of course his preference is the boys in the Bronx.

7:12am: Via Joel Sherman, Andy Pettitte has rejected the Yanks’ first offer, a one year deal believed to be worth about $10M. He’s the only player the Yanks have made an offer to since the end of the World Series. Sherman basically says the deal will get done at some point, and the Yankees believe Pettitte wants to return next year. After incentives, Pettitte pulled in about $10.5M in 2009, though it’s not clear if this new proposal contained any such escalators. He’s certainly earned a raise over his $5.5M base salary. Sherman also mentions that the Yanks have told the Blue Jays to stay in touch about Roy Halladay, though no proposals have been made.

Filed Under: Asides, Hot Stove League Tagged With: Andy Pettitte, Roy Halladay

Rumor du jour: Yanks interested in various agent starters

December 5, 2009 by Mike 100 Comments

Via MLBTR, the Yankees have expressed interest in some free agent starters. Like a whole lot of them. John Lackey, Rich Harden, Joel Pineiro, and maybe even Randy Wolf too. Of course, their first priority is retaining Andy Pettitte, and surely they’re stay in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes until the bitter end. The point is, the Yankees are clearly on the prowl for someone to shore up the middle of the rotation.

I’m not a fan of Lackey given his recent elbow issues and presumed exorbitant contract demands, and both Pineiro and Wolf should be nothing more than last resort options for the Yanks given their complete inability to miss bats in recent years. Harden’s a fine candidate as long as he comes on a short (one or two year) contract. That said, I’d rather have Ben Sheets on a one or two year deal than any of them.

Filed Under: Asides, Hot Stove League Tagged With: Andy Pettitte, Joel Pineiro, John Lackey, Randy Wolf, Rich Harden, Roy Halladay

Yanks will bid on Halladay, cut payroll

December 4, 2009 by Mike 178 Comments

Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees have decided that they will in fact bid on Roy Halladay. Toronto, he says, wants some combination of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Jesus Montero, and Austin Jackson. Meanwhile, Buster Olney says the Yanks are going to trim payroll; he’s just not sure by how much. Frankly, none of this is anything we didn’t already know, but now it’s semi-official.

Filed Under: Asides, Hot Stove League Tagged With: Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Roy Halladay

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