Jan
14
Fan Confidence Poll: January 14th, 2013
By2012 Record: 95-67 (804 RS, 668 RA, 96-66 pythag. record), won AL East, swept in ALCS
Top stories from last week:
- Hal Steinbrenner confirmed that the plan to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold in 2014 is not a one-time thing; they’re going to stay at that level going forward.
- The Yankees have interest in Mike Morse after the Nationals re-signed Adam LaRoche, but there is “nothing alive” in talks right now. The two sides will talk at some point. New York is also willing to meet the asking price for Justin Upton.
- The Yankees are pessimistic about signing Scott Hairston and would not consider re-signing Rafael Soriano to a one-year contract. They do not have interest in Jim Thome, but they have checked in on Grady Sizemore and Ben Francisco. They’ve also been monitoring Javy Vazquez‘s winter ball starts.
- Injury News: Alex Rodriguez (hip) will have surgery this week and is likely out until the All-Star break. CC Sabathia (elbow) started his throwing program and has lost 20 lbs. Derek Jeter (ankle) is out of a walking boot but has yet to resume baseball activities. Frankie Cervelli (whiplash) is fine after getting hit by a foul tip in winter ball.
- The Yankees released Chris Dickerson after designating him for assignment last week. Eduardo Nunez would go back to being a utility player if he makes the team out of Spring Training.
- Marcus Thames is the new hitting coach for High-A Tampa. The Yankees rank 11th in Baseball America’s preliminary farm system rankings.
- Andy Pettitte will pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic in a few weeks.
- MLB will begin in-season blood testing for HGH this coming season.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
- 10 (very confident)
- 9
- 8
- 7
- 6
- 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1 (no confidence)
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Upton would get me to a 7 from my 6.9 (unless they give multiple high-end prospects).
In fact if Sanchez is in that deal, lower me to a 5.1 as “The Cerv’ you Stu” show will be old by April 25th.
Sooooo….you don’t want Upton then.
I mean, “multiple high-end prospects” has been the asking price for months by my understanding, Sanchez or no Sanchez.
Forget Upton. He’s overrated. Not worth sacrifing 3 or 4 good prospects. Lets see what they can do for OUR team for a change, even if you have to wait 2 or 3 years.
I don’t think we know definitively that they’ll meet the price for Upton.
I’d be 2 points higher if Marcus Thames was also the IF coach in addition to hitting coach for Tampa.
If you can deal Granderson for a couple of prospects and then turn around and flip them for Upton, thats different.
Wouldn’t the team flipping these prospects to the Yankees just go ahead and trade their prospects for Upton instead, if this was possible?
I mean, it’s definitely not possible. If you’re saying that the Yankees should trade Granderson for prospects and then flip those prospects in addition to 1-2 of the top prospects they already own, that’s a different story.
Granderson’s trade value =/= Upton’s trade value.
But I think you know that already.
And remember, our trade proposals suck. Seriously.
Well Upton has already shown he will use his NTC, so Seattle at the very least is looking for a bat for prospects. They might be willing to send the high end pitcher that our system lacks to make the Upton deal. Probably not Walker but maybe Hultzen. But you’re right we’d still have to sacrifice one or two of our elite prospects. That’s a lot of future value to give up for what is basically a wash in production for 2013.
I find it hard to believe that trading Curtis Granderson and replacing him with Justin Upton will be a “wash in production” in 2013.
Everyone wants to knock Grandy because of his baa and his K’s, but who the hell is going to hit the ball out of the ball park for this team if we trade him? I say we keep Grandy and don’t trade the farm for a kid who has yet to show he even close to as good as the hype surrounding him. If we’re unloading the farm unload it for someone productive like Stanton.
Granderson is a goner after 2013. Upton would give NY a middle of the lineup hitter something Granderson is not and never will be. Also to consider is a 7 year age difference.
Upton was 4th in the MVP voting in 2011 in the NL, just like Granderson did in the AL. Both had similarly down 2012 seasons. I would argue that due to the difference in age Upton is more likely to bounce back. It’s not like Upton is a singles hitter he has 91 HRs the last four years.
He’s also a .250 career hitter away from Arizona. And in those same 4 years he’s had 2 seasons with sub 70 rbi
I don’t think home/road splits mean what you think they mean and RBI’s are indicative of nothing…
A possible but somewhat doubtful scenario, Seattle is granted a negotiating window to extend Granderson. If he agrees to a contract with Seattle then Seattle would trade 2 prospects, something like Paxton and Pryor to the D-Backs, NY would then trade something like Williams and Logan to the D-Backs for Upton. That would be a great deal all around. Right now Seattle is a tough sell for FA MLB players as well as players like Upton who evoke their NTC.
This? This thing you’re suggesting? Will never ever ever ever ever happen.
That is all
you’ve been corleoned
6. Hasn’t changed since the Yankees were knocked out of the playoffs. Still worse behind the plate & in RF need a DH a bench and are less than a month away from Spring Training, also the report that they are willing to part with the prospects for Upton but not the $ just plain sucks. I am sure the holes are going to be filled (giggity) but right now it’s hard to get a beat on what exactly the Yankees are doing.
Hal could be the right hand dh.
At last the master plan is revealed
I don’t have a problem with the team getting/staying under $189 mil. That’s plenty of budget. Once they have these onerous contract obligations finished (see A-Rod,Tex, and probably Cano in the future)they should have no problem fielding a championship caliber team. The thing that stinks about this is that all of the other teams in the league have now become big spenders and we’re preaching fiscal responsibility. It’s like I’ve traveled to an alternate reality.
Im at a 6. No Cathcer . No DH . and RF is ehhhh
Agreed…sadly
I gotta say I’m still at a 6 from last week but Hal’s comments, while not the end of the world, do have me a bit more pessimistic.
While $189 million should be enough to win, $220+ million would likely produce a better team, at least until some of these albatross contracts expire. While he did say he would go above $189 if needed, the fact that he’s gonna try to win at that number is disappointing.
I voted a 10. Why not?
I like your perspective
Because it’s unreasonable just like those who voted 1′s and 2′s for starters
It’s tough to say becuase we don’t know what’s in the minds of los Steinbrenners; With George it was simple, Win – or die trying.
Now…who knows?
Of course it’s unreasonable.
It’s an unscientific poll in a blog. And it’s the offseason; and enough people voted 5-7 already, which is probably an accurate reflection of the fanbase as a whole.
So I can vote 10, and enjoy some irrational positivity, because we’re the MF Yankees, and that’s how we roll.
Pretty much this.
Fir the record my “actual” confidence would be in the 7-8 range.
Welcome to the club!
If giving up prospects is the big deal then why didn’t they go after International
Players such as Cespedes or Solger.
They did go after them. They just didn’t meet what wound up being the asking price.
because NY probably felt spending 36 million for a IFA was a bit over the top.
Cubs blew everyone out of the water on SOler. Cespedes is a mystery. Don’t knnow why Yanks didn’t at least make an offer.
36 million for a 26 year old player who hasn´t really proven anything ? Cepedes has to be a very good ballplayer over a 5 year period to justify that kind of up front money.
With his 3.1 WAR season, he already earned a third of his contract so he’s well on his way to earning the $36 million and then some.
maybe so .
Easy to say now, most scouts thought he would spend 2012 in the minors. 9 million is a lot to pay a guy in AAA. Kudos to Billy Beane for seeing something others didn’t and rolling the dice. But I don’t fault the Yankees for not doing it.
Signing players like this definitely comes with some risk like the Yankees saw with Igawa.
I don’t agree with their policy of completely backing away from these types of players in recent years especially since the new CBA has closed a lot of the ways the Yankees have used to their advantage acquiring new talent .
If a severely financially limited team like the A’s are able to take a chance on a player like this, then the Yankees should be able too. What’s a better investment, $12 million for 2 years of a washed up 39 year old Ichiro or $36 million on 5 years of a tooled up Cespedes?
IF Cespedes has a few repeat seasons like 2012. Adonis Garcia cost $400.000 to sign and could turn out to be the better investment ??
I’d be lying if I said I’m familiar with Garcia. He certainly could turn out to be a better investment though the fact that the Yankees signed him for $400K compared to guys like Soler, Cespedes and Puig who all got $25+ million leads me to believe he has a much much lower ceiling.
http://www.investopedia.com/te.....stment.asp
The question isn’t really his ceiling. It’s how much he’ll return compared to how much was invested. You might be able to argue that Garcia is a successful investment even if he ends up a AAAA depth piece.
I don’t agree with just adding the value of WAR in a straight-line fashion.
Most if not nearly all AAA depth pieces end up contributing little if any value to the big league club so if Garcia never makes the majors, you’ll have a hard time convincing anyone that he was a worthwhile investment.
Glad you picked a nit with a supporting detail instead of actually discussing the meat of the argument.
Right, there is no value in AAAA players! All-Stars and WBC stars only 4eva!
AAAA players absolutely can contribute to the team, and they also alleviate the need to sign a Chris Dickerson or Jayson Nix as AAA depth. There is value in having capable depth in case of injury or poor performance (the Yankees could have used a Jones replacement last season, and could use more Diaz competition this season, just as an obvious example… people lament having lost Maxwell somewhat regularly). So, it would be very easy to argue that he was worth the investment if he winds up being a solid AAAA guy.
I’m unaware of any method used to evaluate the worth or value of a minor league player so if that’s what you want to argue about today, go stand in front of a mirror and knock yourself out.
I don’t think they’ve completely backed away from international FA, they were big in on Soler. Theo made it very clear he was going to match any offer though. Cespedes definitely had a tantalizing speed/power combo, but he was 26 and there was legitimate concern about whether or not he could handle big league breaking balls. The A’s just obviously didn’t share that concern.
Darvish, Cespedes, Puig, Soler, Chapman, Viciendo off the top of my head.
Not saying they should have signed any or all of them but if they had gone aggressively after them, there’s a strong chance as least one would be a Yankee right now.
Three of those guys have under 1 career fWAR combined to date (0.5 career bWAR combined). The other three have one successful MLB season each. I would be careful counting those chickens before they hatch.
Not saying they should have signed any or all of them but if they had gone aggressively after them, there’s a strong chance as least one would be a Yankee right now.
As I mentioned above, I didn’t say they Yankees should have signed any or all of them. My point is I don’t believe the Yankees went hard after any of them.
I’d be at a 10 if, and only if, they rehired George Costanza, got him to quit having sex, and then fired Kevin Long and made him the hitting coach. He hit a bomb to dead center in old Yankee Stadium, showing both Jeter and Bernie how it’s done!!
Good writeup on prospect Adonis Garcia on WasWatching.com. Look forward to seeing him at ST.
Yeah. Heck of an article.
“Via George King in the recent print edition of Baseball America -”
-someone elses material-
“There’s never been a player in Major League history with the given name Adonis, for those scoring at home. In any event, I am sure that John Sterling and Mitch Modell are having premature ejaculations over the potential of someone named Adonis wearing a Yankees uniform.”
OK am I the only one that hears “Adonis” and thinks of this guy?
http://www.onlineworldofwrestl.....nis/13.jpg
Umm yeah!
Adrian Adonis and his “goodnight Irene” sleeper hold. Didn’t know that he died in a car accident in 1988.
Thankfully, no
I know that the poll rating is subjective but I often feel that the scores given reflect a comparison between the 2013 Yankees and 2012 Yankees or the 2009 Yankees etc.I’m not denying the fun years of ‘see him buy him’ look to be on hold but even so I see this version of the Yankees still being contenders against the rest of the AL in 2013 and beyond. Therefore I’m still a 7 (Upton instead of Ichiro & I’d be in the rare air of the 8s)
Heck, if they added Upton, kept Grandy and Romine was a callup in June and holding his own in the show…
i’d see your 8 and raise you one.
LOL
Only a 9 – pessimist!!
Still a 6. Worse in RF, catcher, and 3B plus no DH. Pitching is good, bullpen will be pretty good. Injuries might be an issue. Farm system has some potential, let’s see how the year goes for them.
Taking only 2013 into account I’m a 7, maybe even approaching an 8. Staving off the injury bug is going to be more important this year than in years past IMO.
I’m down from a 7 to a 6. It’s getting late early this off season, and while I still feel that we have a chance of making the playoffs, pitchers and catchers are a month away and we still figure to have Diaz or Mustlier to be our RHH Right Fielder, a black hole at catcher, and I guess Nunez as a DH when he’s not spelling Jeter (who is coming off an injury) or Youkilis (who is an injury waiting to happen). That, plus Hal’s comments about staying ~189 from here on out, plus the Upton piece from yesterday (even if it was mostly pork) just has me down on the team right now. To be a legit contender, we’re hoping that a career-high in innings isn’t going to effect a mid-30s pitcher (Kuroda), a pitcher coming out of retirement and missing most of last year is going to be is old self (Andy), an inconsistent guy through out his career is going to repeat a career year on the mound (Hughes), and a third year guy is going to all of a sudden find it and be decent (Nova).
I agree that our offense is thin, we seem to be punting RF, DH, and C, while two keys to our offense is Jeter coming off of a serious ankle injury and a diminished fragile Youkilis. I’m sold on our pitching though. CC is as good as anybody not named Verlander or Kershaw and I’m not really worried about Kuroda’s innings. He might not be as good as last year, but he’s still a solid two. I have some worry about Pettitte pitching 30 starts at his age, but we don’t really need him to be a workhorse we need him to be good when he pitches, which hasn’t been a problem. Hughes and Nova have both shown the ability to be number two starters on playoff teams. We need them to pitch like a solid 3 or 4. Phelps is more than an adequate 6th starter, and we have Warren and Marshall in AAA, plus Pineda coming back by mid-season. And our bullpen is as good as it gets with Mo, DROB, Joba, and Logan
I put myself down as a 6 as well, but mostly because it’s hard to succeed in MLB, the Yankees have some hurdles to overcome but I don’t see a lot of deficiencies that can’t be overcome. I think by the middle of the year it’ll be a different situation. The most important thing is to stay close. The catching situation isn’t as much of as a problem as it’s made out to be. Martin sucked most of last year, and didn’t turn it on till late in the year. So perhaps the Yankees make a trade deadline pick-up for a catcher. It would probably end up being similar production to what they got last year down the stretch.
You’ll have a full year(or hopefully) of Andy and Gardner back, as well as Mo. That situation will be a positive over last year. Perhaps Nunez a year older, and maybe if we’re lucky a bit better defensively will be an upgrade offensively over Nix. Then there still is the wildcard of Alex and Pineda coming back, you can’t count on either, but there could be something there. So by mid-season if they can keep it close the stretch run could be a lot of fun.
Baseline 7.
I think the “Trade all teh prozpecz for J-UP” (eerily similar to Trade all teh prozpecz for ShawnCarlo Stanton, that Chew guy, Chase HeadRoom, etc etc etc) is a flash in the pan. We will all panic and the trolls will go a trollin, and graves will be properly spun.
That said, if history is any guide, we will be OK. maybe not win 100 games, but we will overcome.
forgot to mention the sky falling
Why are you focusing on one aspect of what Hal said, perhaps misrepresenting that one aspect as well, and ignoring another? It seems both irresponsible and like you’re pandering to the lowest common denominator of your readers.
“Is our goal 189 next year? Yes. But only if I’m convinced if the team I see, that we’ve put together, is a championship-caliber team.”
This would also imply that if the team is not championship-caliber, they may surpass $189 million to fix it.
The part you are fixating on, is just a simple factual statement:
“I believe that you don’t have to have a $220-million payroll to win a championship.”
This is true. Plain and simple. You don’t have to have a $220 million payroll to win a championship.
I don’t think it’s fixating, that’s the new information. We knew the Yankees were trying to get the benefits of being under 189 in 2014. Now we know they want to keep that as their baseline spending. Yes I think that it’s important to keep in mind the quote you pointed out, but this isn’t new information. The Yankees have always had a budget, and they’ve always gone beyond it if it is necessary to compete. The new part of this story is that the baseline budget is going to be lower for the foreseeable future. I get where you’re coming from, the incessant 189ing is a little tiresome. But in this case I do think that Hal let out a new piece of information that we could have only guessed about before.
Not so sure. We now know that Hal thinks they can be more efficient in their spending. I think any reasonable person would agree… I mean, come on. We all know that you can win as many games cheaper than the Yankees have. We have all seen teams win championships with lower payrolls than the Yankees. I think the paranoia about $189 led Mike to read far more into his quotes than was there. They would prefer to spend less money for the same results… no shit. You don’t need an MBA to get that.
The actual quote I’ve seen was: “I believe that you don’t have to have a $220-million payroll to win a championship.”
Maybe there are others that I missed. That’s the one that Mike used here on RAB, though, and the one he refers to here. That one doesn’t say anything about what their payroll will be at any point in time. Deciding that it does takes a lot of assumptions.
“But in this case I do think that Hal let out a new piece of information that we could have only guessed about before.”
I don’t. You didn’t realize that championships could be won at below $220 million payroll? You didn’t realize that any owner would prefer to win more games while spending less? This is common sense stuff, not news.
To me the new news here was this: “Is our goal 189 next year? Yes. But only if I’m convinced if the team I see, that we’ve put together, is a championship-caliber team.”
He implied that he’s going to break $189 if that’s what it takes to win. That’s HUGE NEWS. Bratty Yankees fans have managed to miss that news to focus on one possible outcome of a common sense statement.
I don’t disagree that the part about being flexible on 189 if it’s necessary to win is important. But the full context of the 220 comment is
Question: Will $189 million be less of a goal in future years once you get under in 2014, since the luxury tax rate goes down once you’re no longer a repeat offender?
Steinbrenner: “I don’t see it being less of a goal. I believe that you don’t have to have a $220 million payroll to win a world championship, and you shouldn’t have to.”
Which seems pretty clear that being under 189 is going to be an important goal every season. Maybe you read it differently. Again I’m not that caught up in the 189 stuff. In the end it means we have to spend less on the bullpen, bench and back end of the rotation. Which is something we should have been doing anyways.
I read it as being an important goal, provided that they field a championship-caliber team. If they field a championship-caliber team, who cares what their payroll is? The lower the better for fans, I would say. That gives them the flexibility to add pieces as needed and to invest in the org in other ways. You want your favorite players being rewarded, but you also want them incentivized and ultimately want wins.
And while you agree that it’s important, Mike is ignoring the flexibility part to a point I’d call manipulating the facts.
People don’t seem to like signing overpaid, fading guys like A-Rod. They seem to like prospects developed in-house. You’d think that they’d be doing backflips in excitement at the news that the Yankees will theoretically sign less A-Rod’s going forward and try to develop more prospects…
I think you’re taking people’s internet comments too literally. People like to bitch. We have an older team so people want prospects. If we had a young team people would say we lacked that veteran presence. I do think there is a sense of indignation that the most financially successful team in sports is cutting payroll at a time when many teams are increasing it (I realize this was the point of the new CBA). Mike seems to share this view, although I don’t think it’s getting in the way of him reporting facts. He put the quote you’re referencing right in his write-up. I think you’re mad at Mike because you think he’s instigating the vitriol in the comments. But I just don’t see it. People post crazy crap on the internet. Mike could write a story about monkeys and people would find a way to bitch about Montero, or 189.
No one missed the news it’s just that the fans don’t believe him. For the past few seasons we’vw heard 189 and we’re not budging but now after months of hearing the fans aren’t happy he comes out and says what he said.
Still at a 6, as I’ve been since the roster holes opened up and spending reductions in place.
Hals comments worry me that the team is putting winning lower on the priority list, while roped in to these long-term contracts for aging players. We very well may be competitive for a while, but I’m not real confident in the plan until the farm system starts getting closer.
He said that he would only stick to the budget **IF** they were fielding a championship-caliber team, and you took that to mean winning was lower on the priority list?
I think that Mike’s irresponsible journalism here has shaded people’s opinions.
Mike, you ignorant slut
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k80nW6AOhTs
What am I ignorant about here?
Do you even know what ignorant means? That’s a big word for you. Try looking it up, and then tell me why you tried to use it here.
He wasn’t calling you ignorant he was facetiously calling Mike ignorant. This isn’t a PBS news cast. It’s a sports blog. It’s basically Mike’s personal sports blog. He’s allowed to inject his opinion into the content as he sees fit. There isn’t anything “irresponsible” about it.
This.
Ted Nelson for RAB’s co-editor in chief!!
Do you actually have a relevant comment? The fact that two different people have launched personal attacks rather than actually respond to the substance of my comment leads me to believe that I am so right that there’s nothing to say here. Hal implied he’d go over $189 to win. That’s a great thing. It’s been ignored by Mike, to the point of telling us we’re not going to like what Hal had to say.
Didn’t you also launch a personal attack by calling Mike an irresponsible journalist?
“Sheldon, just because you think you’re right doesn’t mean I won’t whip your behind.”
-Sheldon’s mom
/bigbang’d
God, you whine a lot.
I think perhaps people place a bit too much value in our fearless leader’s lip service. He can say they’ll only stick to the budget if they’re fielding a championship caliber team, but he can also put lipstick on a pig and fudge the definition of “championship caliber team.” It’s his team, he can say whatever the hell he wants, and it would be a little foolish to just accept everything he says as gospel without so much as a second thought.
That goes both ways though, to those who try and spin his comments as mostly negative or mostly positive. Will he actually break the $189 million barrier if the team is looking weak? Perhaps, but who really knows, and who cares? Let’s worry about 2013 before we start worrying about 2014 and beyond.
I don’t see the Yankees moving heaven and earth to acquire Upton. I am just resigned to the fact we are going with a terrible catching situation, no jolt to the line up which is sorely needed & hinging much of the team’s success on players returning from injuries or having bounce back years. I will go to a couple of games this year but mostly ill just get myself more comfortable with Michael Kay, Coney, O’Neill, the rest of the gang & my flat screen. My only hope is that some of the prospects come along faster than projected & can help this club out at some point.
Well said.
Give me Morse and a lefty bench bat and I’m up to a seven. For now, 6.