Fan Confidence Poll: March 4th, 2013

March 4, 2013 by Mike Axisa 62 Comments

Spring Training Record: 3-7 (45 RS, 47 RA)
Spring Training Schedule This Week: Mon. OFF, vs. Braves (Tues. on YES), vs. Dominican Republic (Weds. on YES), @ Cardinals (Thurs.), @ Marlins (Fri.), vs. Braves (Sat. on YES) @ Blue Jays (Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Brian Cashman confirmed the Yankees have made a “significant offer” to Robinson Cano. A deal is not imminent and the two sides remain pretty far apart. It’s obvious the club would like to get this done before Cano hits free agency.
Johnny Damon said he has “tons of interest” in returning to the Yankees following Curtis Granderson‘s injury, but the team is not interested. They also don’t have interest in Vlad Guerrero. The Yankees do, however, have interest in Chien-Ming Wang and had “major interest” in Javy Vazquez before he blew out his knee, but they don’t have interest in Kyle Lohse.
Injury News: Derek Jeter (ankle) has begun moving side-to-side during fielding drills. Phil Hughes (back) has resumed throwing, though he may not be ready in time for the start of the season. Kevin Youkilis (oblique) was shut down for a few days but has since returned to the lineup. Boone Logan (elbow) and Slade Heathcott (thumb) will but shut down for a few days even though MRIs came back clean. David Adams (back) has started swinging a bat and could soon begin more intense workouts.
Gary Sanchez and Mason Williams both cracked Baseball Prospectus’ top 101 prospects list. Rafael DePaula and Abi Avelino were ranked among the top Dominican Summer League prospects by Baseball America. Dellin Betances will open the year as a starter with Triple-A Scranton.
Joba Chamberlain still wants to be a starter. Melky Mesa withdrew from the World Baseball Classic because of the open left field job.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

{democracy:292}

Nash

Make the playoffs: 8
Win the World Series: 6
Next year: 7
Future beyond: 8
Jim Is Bored

I can’t imagine if they’d signed Javy again. He wouldn’t have fooled me a 3rd time.

6, as usual since Granderson went down. Confidence will go back up to 7 pending seeing him back, and seeing Hughes stay healthy on the mound for a few weeks.
- MannyGeee
  
  I can’t imagine if they’d signed ~~Javy~~ any veteran starter as a reclamation project/AAA Depth on a MiLB contract again.
  
  Javy as a flier on a non-guaranteed deal is vastly different than Javy as a bonafide rotation piece for $11M. Different expectations for different players.
  - Jim Is Bored
    
    Oh I should have clarified it wouldn’t have been logical. The rational side of my brain is fine with it, on a minor league deal as depth.
    
    The irrational side is mad that I spent 6 months defending the last signing and then eating all those words when he was awful/hurt.
  - Robinson Tilapia
    
    I’ll put it to you this way: While I agree, if I had a stack of applications for the position of MiLB depth, somehow, Javy’s would keep on winding up on the bottom of the stack.
    
    May the record also reflect that I almost misspelled “depth” as “death” there.
- bob
  
  Don’t worry, there is always next year for Javy to be signed.
- dalelama
  
  My 5.4 has sunk to 5 with Granderson’s injury and Hughes forecasted breakdown.
Jersey Joe

Granderson, losing streak, Hughes, brought me from a 6 two weeks ago down to a 4. :(
- Jim Is Bored
  
  Granderson, fair. Hughes, sort of fair.
  
  Losing streak in spring training…
- A.D.
  
  But the losing streak is over!!!
- Murderers’ Row Boat
  
  A spring training losing streak! I guess we better start trading off everyone of value.
  - Robinson Tilapia
    
    Grave-rolling index is high this morning.
Cross777

I voted 5. Hughes & Logan injuries, Cano not traded and not interested in talking contract, and the overall age of this team. The one good thing this week was Cash saying no way to Damon.
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  “Cano not traded and not interested in talking contract”
  
  Except that, for the first time in ages, the Yankees are actually talking contract extension which someone, which indicates the polar opposite of what you’re saying.
  - Cross777
    
    The Yankees made and offer, and the next day Cano said he was concentrating on the season and not on his contract.
    
    Cano is a Boras client which usually means he will go free agent – So yes I would vote higher if he was gone and the Yanks got something for him. If Cano does then go FA then will be able to resign him. I think Cano will be playing for another team next year regardless. And I’d rather the Yanks go something for him
- MannyGeee
  
  I find it HIGHLY doubtful that you’d vote higher if Cano was traded.
  - Jim Is Bored
    
    I know I wouldn’t.
Mike HC

7 – If Cervelli keeps looking this good, confidence will be moving up.
- MannyGeee
  
  scariest line of the day so far. Our confidence hinges on Francisco Cervelli.
  
  Now excuse me while I drink this Vodka-Valium-Clorox-Raid-Cosmopolitan…
  - Robinson Tilapia
    
    A New Hampshire Iced Tea?
    
    *snare*
    - MannyGeee
      
      Very cheeky, Mr Tilapia…. verrrrrry cheeky
  - Mike HC
    
    haha
Nate

I had a dream that we traded Sanchez and Williams for D’Arnaud. I know this would never happen, but if we had that opportunity, would you do it?
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  I’d keep my guy who hasn’t yet sniffed the majors rather than trading for someone else’s.
  - MannyGeee
    
    Yeah dude… this.
trr

unchanged. 5.
Mickey Scheister

From a 5 to a 6, back to a 5 after the Grandy injury and still the uncertainty of the Walking Injured. I like what Juan Rivera brings to the team, as with Hafner but the kids are the wild card with all the injuries. If the Mesas and Warrens of the world prove they’re ready for the call, I could get as high as a 7-8 with this current roster for this year. The coming years with the age of the players actually signed beyond 2013 and the plan to reduce spending its hard for me, with all the unknowns go any higher than a 5 for the future. It sure would be great to see a NYY MiL player bud into the next Cano or comparable player.
Murderers’ Row Boat

It’s up to five since both Nova and Phelps seem to have progressed.
Yankee68

Every week the poll is 6. I am no math wiz but I don’t think that is possible.
- Jim Is Bored
  
  …why?
  - Robinson Tilapia
    
    THE MATH! IT JUST DOESN’T ADD….uh, yeah, why?
- hogsmog
  
  Normal distribution with a mean at 6, dogg.
  - Yankee68
    
    Consult Vegas! The odds of a vote with the same result week after week is mathematically impossible! There are too many factors at play, number of people voting, events of the week, etc to have the same result.
    - Jimmy
      
      Say it ain’t so, Mike.
    - Havok9120
      
      It’s the same group of voters asked the same question every week at a regular interval. The elements of random sampling introduced by the variables you mentioned actually increase the accuracy of the poll (because probability theory is stupid).
      - Yankee68
        
        Huh? I guess I am as slow minded as my math teacher wrote on my report card. Or…
Nice Guy Eddie

8 ~ from what I’ve seen so far in spring, the yankees absolutely own the dominican republic. those guys get closer everyday and the future is bright.
Murderers’ Row Boat

In other news. Tyler Austin looks pretty damn good and the Matt Daley looks like a sleeper bullpen guy.
- Havok9120
  
  I was definitely impressed by Daley when I saw him yesterday. I’d never heard of the guy but I’m gonna try to remember to follow him a bit this season.
  - Pat D
    
    Except that he’s already be re-assigned to minor league camp.
    - Havok9120
      
      Yeah, I meant in DotF. I knew he was reassigned almost immediately following the game.
Tom from England

Tyler Austin minor league stats (3 seasons): .331/.406/.563

Paul Konerko minor league stats (6 seasons) .306/.393/.535

Granted larger sample size, but still…
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  For shits and giggles, we should throw in Jorge Vazquez.
  - MannyGeee
    
    F.H.O.F.R.M. and Shelly “Man-Child” Duncan take offense.
- Henry Krinkle
  
  I think Konerko played in a hitter friendly for part of his time in the minors ( Albuquerque ?).
  - Tom from England
    
    For their first 3 minor league seasons, Tyler Austin’s numbers are better than Konerko’s, Duncan’s, and Vazquez’s at the same point in their careers. Optimistic buoyancy = bad thing?
    - Robinson Tilapia
      
      Of course not. Just busting your chops a bit.
Robinson Tilapia

Up to baseline 7 from a 6 last week, which was probably my lowest in a while.

I just feel particularly inspired by some of the play of the younger players and feel bullish as to several of them, maybe even more than I thought, really taking a step forward this year. Feeling good about what I’ve seen from Phelps and Nova, and Pineda seems to be on the mend. Both Cervelli and Stewart seem to be embracing CATCHER WARZ to the point that they might actually avoid being an embarassment out there come the start of the season and, hey, every spot on the team actually isn’t decided three months before the start of the season. That at least makes things interesting……right? ;)
- MannyGeee
  
  Call me old fashioned, but I actually really like that there are a bunch of guys playing for roster spots (like 28 other teams do every spring).
  
  It makes the trip to Tampa really more than just a technicality for everyone involved… Spring Training usually sucks, but I have been intrigued this season (albeit semi irrationally).
Havok9120

I really want to see more of Nova. If he can get back on track we should have a heck of a rotation this season and he could be a big piece moving into the 189-years.
- Mandy Stankiewicz
  
  Nova’s quick outing looked good. Gardner is also looking great in camp.
  - TomH
    
    Ahem. When reference was made on RAB to this impending jump, I asked “Is this wise?” Various posters assured me it was. Cash is 45ish–even older than the average age of his team. He’s lucky he didn’t bust his neck. There is far too much optimism on this board. Which brings me to…
    
    My vote is as usual 4.
    1) Team is way too old and with too many question marks (arising both from age and health).
    
    2)Upper minors talent is too modest.
    
    3) More rivals are now able/willing to spend Yankee type money.
    
    4) AL East stronger (see #3).
    
    5) MLB is too determined to “level” the field.
    
    6) Owner seems to lack the driven quality needed to keep NYY king of the hill. (Finance geeks rarely make Conquistadores.)
    - Henry Krinkle
      
      Optimism on a fan board? The horror !
      Or maybe you’re too negative. We’ll see.
The Big City of Dreams

KenDavidoff
The second jump didn’t go great, though. Cashman twisted his right ankle and said he heard a pop. Going for X-rays.

—————–

Now the Gm is out. Fuck that I’m down to a one :D
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  I bet they won’t consider Mustellier for this either.
- The Big City of Dreams
  
  @NYDNHarper: People who attended to cashman say they’re pretty sure his ankle is broken. They say bone was sticking out. Took him to hospital.
  
  —————-
  
  All joking aside though it was a pretty serious injury.
Jeff

3
– Chris Stewart is competing for a starting role on the team. This alone is worth docking the team a few points.
– The 2013 team appears, at least on paper, to be weaker than last year’s team, which is a downgrade from a team that failed to win (or reach) the WS. We needed upgrades, not downgrades.
– Unless the 189M plan is being scrapped, it will be very difficult if not impossible to improve the team next year unless numerous key prospects have amazing breakthrough years.
– The ESPN futures has us only #5. In other words, there are 4 teams better positioned than the Yankees in the opinion of these writers.
– The current CBA has weakened the Yankees’ ability to use their financial advantage to overpay for young talent both in the draft and especially internationally.
– The Yankees’ best players, excluding Cano, are well past the ages that could reasonably be considered their primes. I think this is often overstated because future HOFers or even elite but not quite HOF worthy players shouldn’t be compared against the norm, but age related regression is still a real risk.
– Depending on who you ask, the Yankees aren’t the favorite to win the AL East this year.

I can understand how this can sound like a spoiled Yankees fan not appreciating how much worse it can get. To be fair, I am looking forward to this season and hoping that the team exceeds expectations, since there have certainly been many times when paper tigers have done just the opposite. But as a fan I hold the Yankees to a higher standard than other teams in other sports that I follow, because…well…they’re the Yankees. So I interpret this poll to be asking how I feel about the odds of the team winning some championships in the not too distant future. The owner himself has said that this is the organization’s singular goal. As it stands, I feel less confident about the prospects of this happening than at any time in the last 18 year’s or so. I hope I’m wrong.
- Get Phelps Up
  
  Is that one about the ESPN rankings serious? I think being in the top 5 out if 30 teams is very good. That’s basically saying the Yankees will be a top 5 team in baseball going forward.
  - Jeff
    
    It was a panel of “experts” ranking teams by how well they were set up for success over the next 5 years. A year ago the Yankees were ranked #2. This year we trail Tampa Bay in our own division, even in spite of their piggy bank budget. I’m pessimistic but I do have to question that particular ranking. Anyway, I guess I just disagree that being a top 5 team is something Yankees fans should be excited about. Any other team…yea that’s pretty good news, but I expect better from this organization, unless they’re conceding that the standard set for the last 18 years or so is no longer the standard going forward.
    - Get Phelps Up
      
      Being a top 5 team is at the very worst being the 2nd wild card in any season. If the Yankees will do no worse than that over the next 5 years, I personally will be thrilled.
The Big City of Dreams

KenDavidoff
Cashman adds “No protruding bone, as rumored” in his right ankle. But it’s probably broken. #Yankees
Larry B.

What’s the word on Betances? He seems to have really dropped off Yankee radar. I remember seeing him a few years back and really liking his curveball and potential.