Steven Tydings, Author at River Avenue Blues

Dealin’ David Robertson continues to, well, deal [2018 Season Review]

November 9, 2018 by Steven Tydings

More of this in 2019, please! (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

One of the more exciting moments in mid-2017 was getting David Robertson back from the White Sox.

Ostensibly, Robertson could have been considered the third most important piece with Todd Frazier to shore up third base and Tommy Kahnle producing a better season to date. But there’s nothing like getting a welcomed old face back in the fold.

By the end of 2018, Robertson proved himself to be the best part exchanged in the deal. He followed up his rebound in 2017 with another strong season as he cemented himself in Aaron Boone’s circle of trust in relief.

Fireman Dave

Robertson’s numbers as a whole were slightly down in 2018, though they still trumped his 2016 performance. His ERA increased from 1.84 to 3.23 while his FIP went up from 2.57 to 2.97. Down below, you’ll see more about why his numbers decreased, but it was still a strong season for the reliable righty.

Robertson was used more as a traditional late-inning reliever to begin the year, not pitching before the seventh inning until mid-May. That didn’t preclude him from high leverage innings, just meant that Boone was going to others (Chad Green, for instance) in earlier fireman roles.

As time went on, Robertson found himself in different spots, particularly after the Yankees added Zach Britton. Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman were cemented as the eighth and ninth inning guys, giving Robertson the opportunity to put out earlier fires.

The right-hander finished the year with 33 shutdowns and 11 meltdowns, the latter a career-worst, though just by a hair. He produced a Win Probability Added of 1.54 for the season.

Trending Up, Trending Down

A funny thing happened in Robertson’s age-33 season: His velocity actually increased! He averaged 92.3 mph on his heater and 83.8 mph on his curveball. that was his hardest fastball since 2011 and his hardest curveball ever.

Despite his increased velocity and reliance on his curveball (more on that later), Robertson saw an increase in contact against him. However, a lot of it on out-of-the-zone pitches. That may have been simply due to hitters chasing his curve. Thanks to the increased contact, he didn’t get as many swings and misses out of the zone, perhaps due to hitters sitting off-speed.

As a whole, Robertson wasn’t quite as dominant in 2018, which comes down to his fundamentals. His prodigious strikeout rate fell by 6.4 percent to 32.2 percent (still great!) while his walk rate went up 0.5 percent. He allowed one more home run. His 9.2 percent walk rate was his second-highest since 2011.

However, some of the 2017 performance had been smoke and mirrors. He posted a career-best 95 percent strand rate in his half season with the Yankees and that fell precipitously to 67.5 in 2018. Regardless, Robertson still posted strong numbers, maintaining an important role in the Bombers’ bullpen.

Experimentation and Adaptation

Like any veteran pitcher, Robertson has had to change over the years. Early on, it was adding a cutter to his mix skew his fastball-curveball approach. Now, he’s moved with baseball trends and thrown the fewest percentage of fastballs in career. He throws his heater (almost exclusively a cutter) just 42.5 percent of the time, down 5.9 percent from a year ago and 38.4 percent from its peak six seasons ago. Additionally, he’s worked in two-seamers and changed everything about how he pitched just a few seasons ago.

With fewer fastballs has come an increased reliance on his curveball. He throws the primary breaking pitch 47.4 percent of the time, eclipsing his fastball for the first time in his career. This isn’t something novel in that the rest of the league have encourage their pitchers to throw their best pitches more often.

Despite increased velocity, his fastball was less effective in 2018, producing a negative pitch value for just the second time (2016). On the other hand, his curveball was nearly or even more effective, depending on the source. He added some differentiation with his slider that he started experimenting with the last few years, tossing the harder breaking ball 14.4 percent of the time with good results.

Mike has detailed Robertson messing with new arm angles, dropping down and trying to throw off the rhythm of hitters. It’s been infrequent, but the wily vet trusts the gimmick enough to use it in the most important spots. For instance, ALDS Game 4 against J.D. Martinez.

One figures we’ll see more tinkering from Robertson as he gets older and utilizes a long career’s worth of wisdom in getting hitters out as his stuff lessens.

Postseason

I’ll drink to David Robertson in the playoffs. (Getty Images)

In the 2017 postseason, Robertson was used in all of the Yankees’ most important situations. He got 10 key outs in the Wild Card Game. He pitched with the Yankees leading by just one in three ALDS appearances. He helped keep the Yankees in striking distance in ALCS Game 2 and was asked to shut down Houston rallies in Games 4 and 6.

This season was decidedly different. Robertson threw 3 2/3 scoreless innings with one walk and seven strikeouts, allowing no hits in the postseason. In his one inning in the Wild Card Game, he allowed two line drives but escaped unscathed.

However, there wasn’t really a high-leverage spot to give him. Dellin Betances usurped him as the most-trusted reliever in high leverage spots in the WCG and ALDS Game 2. Beyond those spots, Robertson was forced to pitch with the Yankees trailing. Not his fault nor should it be a mark against him. Circumstances made it so the Yankees couldn’t insert their best relievers in spots to win games.

(P.S. The photo above isn’t even close to the best David Robertson alcohol photo. Trust me.)

What’s Next?

Robertson’s four-year, $46 million deal he signed with the White Sox has lapsed and he is now a free agent. He was ineligible for a qualifying offer, having received one from the Yankees in 2014.

The 33-year-old reliever has made the odd move of representing himself in free agency, a decision he explained to MLB Trade Rumors. He said it had nothing to do with his agents and more about knowing himself better than anyone else:

“Being a guy that’s hung around long enough to know what I can offer a team and what I would like in return, I feel I’m best suited to have all the discussions necessary to figure out my next contract.”

It makes too much sense for Robertson to be back in pinstripes for the 2019 campaign. He’s proven to be one of the few relievers in baseball that stays at or near an elite level for years on end and he should get multiple years in a free agent deal. The Yankees, meanwhile, will need to bring back or add a reliever with both Robertson and Britton hitting the open market.

The Remarkable J.A. Happ … until October [2018 Season Review]

November 7, 2018 by Steven Tydings

James Anthony Happ started in the Yankees’ Opening Day game in Toronto, albeit as the opposing starter. Like his final start of the year, it featured a home run from the new middle-of-the-order addition and a loss for the veteran lefty.

But in between, Happ provided the Yankees with exactly what they needed after the trade deadline, solidifying a constantly changing spot in the Yankees’ rotation. He did enough to earn the start in ALDS Game 1 and perhaps an extended look in pinstripes next season.

Let’s get into a strong season for Happ despite a disappointing ending.

Before the Trade

In his age-35 season, Happ continued his late-career renaissance while adding a new chip to his resume: an All-Star appearance, earning the save in extra innings. While his AS bid came as the Blue Jays’ lone representative, it was well deserved in the context of his full career as a journeyman fighting to stick in the league before latching on as a mainstay for Toronto in recent seasons.

The Jays were out of contention by midseason, so trading their spare parts became the logical next step. Happ had posted a 10-6 record with a 4.18 ERA over 114 innings for Toronto in 2018. While that ERA was merely league-average, he posted those numbers (which included a career-best strikeout rate) in the AL East, making multiple starts against both the Yankees and Red Sox. He quickly became one of the bigger starting pitching targets at the deadline, particularly with Jacob deGrom off limits in Queens.

Happ would be one of only three 2018 All-Stars dealt before the deadline, with Manny Machado and Brad Hand being the others. Happ became the first starting pitcher to earn an All-Star appearance and be traded in the same season since Drew Pomeranz in 2016.

Filling a Need

On July 26, the Yankees dealt Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney to the Jays to acquire Happ. The trade marked the second straight year that the Yankees had acquired a starter at the deadline (Sonny Gray, Jaime Garcia). This deal would turn out much better than those.

Happ stepped into the rotation spot initially vacated by Jordan Montgomery when he went down with a UCL injury. Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa tried and failed to grab hold of the spot, making the Yankees’ need for a starter. That trio combined for a 5.16 ERA and just south of five innings per start before the trade deadline, though the Yankees went 11-9 in those games.

Beyond Happ’s ability to pitch in the AL East, his historic success against the Red Sox made him an easy target. Before the Yankees acquired him, he had made 19 appearances against Boston and was 7-4 with a 2.65 ERA in 105 2/3 innings. He’d made two starts vs. the Sox in 2018 while with Toronto with one good (7 IP, 1 run, 10 Ks) and one bad (3.2 IP, 5 R, 0 ER, 6 K).

But Happ’s cheap cost and expiring deal added to his appeal for the Pinstripers. Drury had fallen out of a favor in the Bronx while McKinney was stuck behind a handful of outfielders. Dealing McKinney ended up being a case of bad timing as Aaron Judge and Clint Frazier were soon lost for an extended period right after the trade became official.

The Stabilizer

Happ debuted as a Yankee on July 29 with six frames of one-run ball against the Royals at Yankee Stadium. He’d soon go on the DL for the minimum 10 days with hand, mouth and foot disease (Curse you, Mets!), so he missed his first opportunity to face the Sox.

Once he came back, he was as dominant as a relatively soft-tossing lefty can be. He went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA over 11 starts with the Yankees, who went 9-2 in those games. The bullpen blew leads in the sixth and ninth inning, respectively, in the two losses.

Happ was especially strong at Yankee Stadium, where he went 4-0 over seven starts. He struck out just under a batter per game in the Bronx, though he allowed eight home runs.

The veteran went six or more innings in eight of 11 starts. He kept his strikeout rate above career norms, though it wasn’t quite as high as his 2018 numbers in Toronto. He lowered his walk rate, but his home runs rose, allowing 10 in pinstripes.

The Yankees went 2-0 in his regular-season starts vs. Boston. He allowed only four earned runs in 12 innings and all of them came on one swing, a grand slam by World Series MVP Steve Pearce. Eight hits, five walks, 13 Ks, 1 grand slam. The last part isn’t ideal, but he got the job done.

Ultimately, Happ was exactly what the Yankees needed in the regular season. The team needed length out of their starters and some more reliability, both of which he had in spades. While Yankees certainly make playoffs without his contributions, it’s easy to argue that a different deadline acquisition to fix the rotation leads to the Yankees playing the AL Wild Card in Oakland.

Wrong Time for a Bad Start

His lone playoff start sucked from the start. Happ is a pitcher that relies on his fastball and it was clear he couldn’t command it three batters in. After walking Steve Pearce, J.D. Martinez’s three-run homer put the Yankees on the ropes early. Happ lasted just 11 batters, unable to complete two times through the order.

Aaron Boone made a smart move to pull Happ early when it was clear the then-35-year-old didn’t have it in Game 1. The decision gave the Yankees a chance to win, even with Chad Green allowing two inherited runners to score. They just didn’t come through with the big hit needed in the later innings.

Happ likely wouldn’t have started Game 5 of the ALDS since Masahiro Tanaka would have been available on full rest. Therefore, his next playoff start would have been presumably been Game 1 in Houston if the Yankees made it that far.

What’s Next

Happ is a free agent coming off a three-year, $36-million deal. The Yankees couldn’t issue him a qualifying offer since he was traded mid-season and he likely wouldn’t have gotten one anyway.

With Yankees looking to upgrade the rotation, he may be on his way out and could be replaced by an upgrade like Patrick Corbin. Still, with CC Sabathia returning and Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka the only other starters under contract, the Yankees could add back Happ while bringing in another starter.

Happ turned 36 on Oct. 19, but his age isn’t a reason to give up on him. He has never been the type of guy to blow people away and his fastball velocity actually increased in 2018. It’s not hard to see him sustaining his recent gains, even while pitching at Yankee Stadium.

He’d made sense on a one- or two-year deal, even after the disastrous postseason cameo. Three years, which MLB Trade Rumors has him getting, might be a little rich, even if Rich Hill got a three-year pact going into his age-37 season. Happ would certainly be a nice middle-of-the-rotation piece for 2019.

The Perfectly Cromulent Backup Catcher [2018 Season Review]

October 31, 2018 by Steven Tydings

A backup catcher in New York has the popularity of a backup quarterback, particularly in the age of Gary Sanchez. Despite Austin Romine being one of the worst players in all of baseball in 2017, fans and columnists still pined for him to start games over Sanchez. All over a perceived ability to block balls in the dirt better, though Romine allowed a wild pitch in his one playoff start.

But 2018 was different in that Romine wasn’t a complete negative. For the first time in his career, he produced positive WAR and was near league average with his bat while making his most plate appearances. Perhaps it was a fluke, but for one season, the 29-year-old catcher was a perfectly fine backup. Nothing flashy, nothing awful.

Starting Strong

In April 2017, Romine batted .314/.351/.471 with two home runs and a 115 wRC+. It was easily the best month of his career and made some think he deserved more starts. Those people were wrong. He had a -39 wRC+ (Negative, not a typo) that May and was well below average the rest of the year with no more dingers.

A year later and Romine was OK in April. He drew four walks to buoy his batting line while also producing three hits, including a tying single, against the Orioles on April 8.

May was a different story. In eight starts, he topped April 2017 with a dynamic month at the plate. He hit in each game and had an 11-game hitting streak from April 30 to June 4. He hit home runs in three out of four games and it wasn’t all cheapies! His first homer of the year finished off a blowout win over the Royals and was to deep left-center in Kansas City.

Before Sanchez went on the disabled list on June 25, Romine was actually one of the Yankees’ better hitters. He was hitting .305/.370/.524 and had 10 extra-base hits to his name in just 92 plate appearances.

Filling In

For over two months, Romine became the Yankees’ primary catcher with Sanchez sidelined with hamstring issues. With Kyle Higashioka playing occasionally, Romine was tasked with the day-to-day work and stepped into a bigger role than he’s ever filled, dating back to his rookie season in 2013.

It’d be a lie to say he held his own. The 29-year-old backstop wasn’t nearly as good as he was earlier in the season and he went back to being a hole in the lineup more often than not. Teams ran on him with reckless abandon and were successful at a high rate. That being said, his July was his second-best month of the year, posting league-average marks and a .213 ISO before a weak August.

While Sanchez was out, Romine did give the Yankees a few memorable moments, the biggest being his Little League homer to beat the Indians just before the All Star break. It was a well-hit double to the gap. Then chaos ensued.

Romine homered three times in August, but he struck out in more than 30 percent of his plate appearances while losing 47 points off his OPS.

Poor Ending to a Good Season

After Sanchez came back, Romine played in just seven games with just six starts. He didn’t play for 10 days at one point. He had just three hits over 22 at-bats and grounded into as many double plays as he scored runs. It was his worst month at the plate, but that has a lot to the infrequent playing time. Even while playing his MLB career as a backup, Romine still had to adjust from everyday starts to very little playing time in a short period.

For the season, Romine hit .244/.295/.417 (91 wRC+) with 10 homers, 12 doubles and 42 RBI, all of which were career-bests. He produced 1.4 bWAR and 0.8 fWAR. He tied for the fifth-highest wRC+ for a secondary catcher.

On the defensive end, Romine was good. I can’t tell you how well he calls a game, but everyone involved with the Yankees raves about his talent there. Baseball Prospectus rated him as an above-average framer with 4.2 Framing Runs. After allowing 28 wild pitches and four passed balls in 2017, he gave up 17 WPs and 5 PBs. He even produced 2.2 Blocking Runs after being negative in that category before 2018. Overall, BP had him with 6.8 Fielding Runs Above Average.

Where Romine often receives criticism is for his poor throwing arm. After throwing out just three of 29 runners last year, he approached league average, nailing 16 of 61 attempted runners. That’s 26 percent while the league caught 28 percent. Not great, but certainly manageable.

The Odd Life of Austin Romine

I just want to get to some of the weird moments in Romine’s season outside of the Little League homer. It was a low-key peculiar season for the Yankees’ backstop and we shouldn’t forget the moments that made it so.

First up, he made one playoff appearance … and it was on the mound. We’d all like to forget ALDS Game 3, but Romine’s appearance was as memorable as they get. Brock Holt homered off him for the cycle, but he wasn’t the worst pitcher the Yankees threw out there that night. He hit 90 mph!

Beyond the mound, Romine was run over at the plate by Caleb Joseph on Aug. 1 and it was just a wonderful mess. Here’s the video … and here’s the aftermath.

And finally, there’s his brother punching him during the middle of a live baseball game. What a sport!

What’s Next?

Romine will be arbitration-eligible for the third and final time in 2019 after turning 30 on Nov. 22. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to receive $2.0 million after earning $1.1 million last season. He’ll be a free agent after the year.

Don’t expect Romine to replicate his 2018 season next year. His tail-off in the second half portends a fall to Earth, though he seemed to legitimately improve at turning on pitches and showing off some power last year. That 10-homer power might just stick.

He also shouldn’t get nearly the playing time he had last year. Sanchez is the starting catcher, plain and simple, and there’s no way he should be as bad in 2019. If he is, then the Yankees need to acquire a catcher instead of turning to Romine. However, Romine can take over in a pinch when Sanchez is inevitably banged up.

The Decline of Brett Gardner [2018 Season Review]

October 23, 2018 by Steven Tydings

From his humble beginnings as a fourth outfielder to becoming a respected veteran leader in the Yankees’ clubhouse, Brett Gardner has been a constant in the Bronx for the last 11 seasons. The speedy outfielder never lost his glove or impressive eye at the plate while developing power and becoming a valuable contributor.

However, despite a sixth straight season (and eighth straight full season) with at least 2.5 WAR, Gardner may have played his final year in pinstripes. He went from the Opening Day leadoff hitter to the bench over the course of the year, once again running into a cold second half.

Another strong start

Gardner has always been a streaky hitter and his age-34 season was no exception. Coming off his career-best 21-homer season, he quickly hit his first of the year on Opening Day in Toronto. However, he wouldn’t hit another until May 26. After a two-hit game on April 11, the outfielder carried a .767 OPS. That would crater over the next month as he couldn’t seem to hit the side of a barn until early May.

As the Yankees hit their stride in May, so did Gardner, who produced a three-hit game against Boston. That May 9 game was one of Gardner’s shining moments as he lined a go-ahead two-run triple off Craig Kimbrel to continue the Yankees’ win streak.

Gardner would reach base in all but one start for the next month while playing every day. Beginning with a four-hit game against the Astros on May 29, Gardner’s OPS reached .741 and wouldn’t dip below .700 until the end of August.

And just as he was in 2017, Gardner found himself coming through in the clutch on a regular basis. Two of his four hits on May 29 vs. Houston were home runs and the second dinger tied the game in the bottom of the ninth. Just over a week later, he took Jacob deGrom deep for a go-ahead homer in the eighth inning.

When the first half closed, Gardner was batting .254/.345/.403 (106 wRC+) with 10 home runs, featuring all but a little less power than he had in 2017.

Second half slump

Unfortunately, Gardner has a penchant for wearing down as a season goes on. Aaron Boone had hoped to give him more days off this season and, for the most part, he accomplished that goal. Gardner started eight fewer games in the first half of 2018 compared to 2017. However, Aaron Hicks’ early oblique injury forced the veteran outfielder into more consistent action in April.

No matter the playing time, Gardner’s bat faded in the late summer yet again. Overall, he hit just .209/.288/.316 (66 wRC+) with just three home runs after the break. His average exit velocity increased slightly, but his walk rate fell from 11.7 to 9.1 percent while his strikeout rate spiked to 21.6 from 14.9 percent.

Aaron Judge’s broken wrist, as well as Giancarlo Stanton’s balky hamstring, made sitting Gardner less possible as the alternative was often Shane Robinson. The southpaw started 27 games and playing in every single game during the month of August.

Benched

September likely was the beginning of the end for Gardner in pinstripes as Andrew McCutchen came over in a trade from San Francisco. Cutch replaced Gardy at the top of the lineup and made Gardner a constant at the bottom of the order for the first time since the start of the decade.

When Judge returned, Gardner was relegated to the bench, although he still found himself in center field often enough as Hicks dealt with injuries. Gardner failed to homer in September, his first month without a home run since 2015. He still saved a game with his glove!

When the playoffs came, he was all but set to be a defensive replacement for McCutchen and/or pinch runner. He played the final two innings of the Wild Card Game, a year after homering in the one-game playoff. However, he received at-bats in all four games of the Division Series after Hicks dealt with another injury. He went 0-for-8 with three walks.

Sliding into your home plate like… (Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Stout defense and baserunning

Despite the decline at the plate, Gardner remained reliable on the bases and in the outfield. He produced 11 defensive runs saved, down from 20 a year ago but right in line with the 12 he had in his Gold Glove 2016 season. In fact, his 8.4 UZR/150 was actually better than 2016, although still a little down from 2017. His Outs Above Average declined from five to zero.

Gardner played a little more center field than in 2017, likely due to Jacoby Ellsbury’s absence. He held his own in center and rated as a positive there. He took over left field from McCutchen in ALDS Game 4 but missed a crucial ball that went for an RBI double for Ian Kinsler.

On the base paths, he stole 16 bases and was caught just twice. At 29.2 ft/s, Gardner’s sprint speed was actually higher than 2017 according to Statcast, making him the fastest Yankee yet again. Both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs’ metrics graded him well on baserunning.

What’s next?

Now here comes the hard part. Gardner has a $12.5 million option with a $2 million buyout. For luxury tax purposes, the buyout was already factored into his AAV the last four years, so he’d be a $10.5 million player for the Yankees in 2019. Still, it seems that the Yankees will opt to part ways and take the buyout.

At 35 years old, he’s still a much-needed lefty bat in the lineup, but that shouldn’t stop the Yankees from pursuing an upgrade. The team could potentially have an upgrade in-house with Clint Frazier while Ellsbury may very well take over as a fourth outfielder-type (outside of his inevitable DL stints).

In theory, the Yankees could exercise the option and then try to trade him, but Gardner has attained 10/5 rights that kicked in this past season.

The end is never pretty, but if that was it for Gardner in pinstripes, it was a wonderful 11 seasons and he more than earned the respect and admiration of Yankee fans.

2018 Division Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

October 5, 2018 by Steven Tydings

The MVP roars. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Baseball’s premier rivalry meets again in the postseason, 14 years after a pair of epic Championship Series duels. This time, it will be a five-game set and the Red Sox have home-field advantage thanks to a tremendous regular season.

The Season Series

Boston was the only team to best the Yankees in the season series this year, taking 10 of 19 from the Bombers after winning the season finale. The Sox outscored the Yankees, 116-102, and dealt the decisive blow to their division hopes with a four-game sweep at Fenway Park in August. The Yankees took six of nine at Yankee Stadium but mustered just three wins in 10 tries in Boston.

Who stood out? Rick Porcello went 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA over 23 1/3 innings in four starts while Chris Sale allowed just one run over 13 innings across two victories. He held the Yankees to a .118/.220/.250 line. Mookie Betts hit a ridiculous .415/.506/.738 with 14 extra-base hits against the Pinstripers.

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge batted .346/.443/.654 with five homers and Giancarlo Stanton hit .371/.423/.700 with five homers and 12 total extra-base hits. Luis Severino guided the Yankees to three wins at the Stadium.

Injury Report

Dustin Pedroia, Marco Hernandez, Austin Maddox and Carson Smith are out for the year. Chris Sale is healthy, but his velocity was significantly down in his last start of the year. Eduardo Nunez has dealt with knee issues for the last few seasons.

Their 2018 Season

You know the story. Boston took the league by storm this year, winning a franchise-best 108 wins. They have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their 876 runs led baseball — Yankees were second with 851 — while 647 runs allowed was only bested by the Astros (534), Dodgers (610), Cubs (645) and Rays (646).

Betts is the likely AL MVP after leading baseball with a .346 average, putting up a 1.078 OPS and playing a Gold Glove-caliber right field. Sale is a Cy Young favorite with a 2.11 ERA over 158 innings while racking up 237 strikeouts. The crazy thing is that J.D. Martinez had a more impressive year in some ways, nearly winning the Triple Crown.

The Lineup We Might See

Mookie Betts, RF – .346/.438/.640, 32 HR, 30 SB, 185 wRC+ (AND 10.4 WAR!!)
Andrew Benintendi, LF – .290/.366/.465, 16 HR, 21 SB, 122 wRC+
J.D. Martinez, DH – .330/.402/.629, 43 HR, 6 SB, 170 wRC+
Xander Bogaerts, SS – .288/.360/.522, 23 HR, 8 SB, 133 wRC+
Mitch Moreland, 1B – .245/.325/.433, 15 HR, 2 SB, 100 wRC+
Ian Kinsler, 2B – .240/.301/.380, 14 HR, 16 SB, 87 wRC+
Rafael Devers, 3B – .240/.298/.433, 21 HR, 5 SB, 90 wRC+
Jackie Bradley Jr., CF – .234/.314/.403, 13 HR, 17 SB, 90 wRC+
Sandy Leon, C – .177/.232/.279, 5 HR, 1 SB, 33 wRC+

The lineup won’t look quite like this in Game 1 with J.A. Happ on the mound for New York. Steve Pearce (140 wRC+, 158 wRC+ vs. LHP) will certainly play first base and Eduardo Nunez (78 wRC+, 71 wRC+ vs. LHP) could take over at third base. Pearce could also start at DH or first vs. righties and force Moreland or Bradley Jr. to the bench.

But, hot diggity dog, the top of that lineup is good. You can’t let guys like Bradley Jr. and Leon get on or else Betts, Benintendi and Martinez will make you pay.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Game 1 (Friday at 7:32 PM ET): Chris Sale vs. J.A. Happ
The stuff: He’s got a 95+ mph fastball, a wipe-out high-80s slider and a low-80s changeup. The guy has some of the best stuff in baseball when he’s on.

The questions: Health and ability to go deep in games. Sale pitched just 12 innings over four starts in September. He struck out 18 and allowed just five runs, but he didn’t look quite like himself. Perhaps that was because the games were meaningless. His fastball averaged just 90.2 mph in his final start of the year as his velocity has trickled down his last few starts. Mike broke down Sale’s disappearing velocity earlier today.

Performance vs. NYY: Outside of one bad start last September, he’s really had the Yankees’ number since coming to Boston. His seven innings of one-hit, 11-strikeout ball at the Stadium in June was perhaps the best road performance against the Bombers this year.

Game 2 (Saturday at 8:15 PM ET): David Price vs. Masahiro Tanaka
I’ll be brief on the next three starters because Domenic and Mike broke them down over the last few weeks. Here’s Dom’s preview that touched on Price recently.

The story with Price is simple: He’s a great pitcher. He’s had a strong second half. But he can’t seem to beat the Yankees’ and their right-handed power, nor has he acquitted himself well in the postseason. Both of those storylines hang over him heading into Game 2.

Game 3 (Monday at 7:40 PM ET): Rick Porcello vs. Luis Severino
Porcello’s had a fine, average-ish year, as Domenic pointed out last week. Like Price (and Sale), he’s struggled in the postseason historically. However, he’s been able to keep the Yankees off balance and one-hit them at Fenway in August after no-hitting them into the middle innings in April. He was unable to beat them at Yankee Stadium in one try.

Game 4 (Tuesday at 8:07 PM ET): Nathan Eovaldi vs. CC Sabathia

I can’t put it better than Mike, who broke down Eovaldi’s season and his strong numbers against the Yankees. Check out his piece!

Game 5 (Thursday at 7:40 PM ET): TBD vs. TBD
If we get this far, I’d bet on Sale starting instead of Price for obvious reasons, though Sale may be needed in relief in Game 4 like last season. On the Yankees’ end, they get to pick between whoever performed better among Tanaka and Happ in the first two games.

The Bullpen

The Red Sox will have seven relievers for this series, eight if you count Eovaldi in the early part of the series. Craig Kimbrel is the closer, mostly in one-inning stints, though the postseason will likely call for longer outings. Matt Barnes has been his primary setup man both before and since returning from the disabled list.

From there, it gets hairy. Recently, Alex Cora has turned to Steven Wright and Ryan Brasier in the middle innings. Wright especially has kept the Yankees off-balance, but the knuckleballer shouldn’t scare the Bombers.

Eduardo Rodriguez will act as the long man after missing out on the Game 4 start. Beyond him, the final two spots came down to Brandon Workman, Joe Kelly and Heath Hembree with Hembree missing the cut. Kelly was dreadful down the stretch and Cora will likely loathe utilizing him in a high-leverage spot.

Tipping Points

Sale’s readiness: He’s barely pitched down the stretch and he’s arguably the most important player in this series.
Relying on the bullpen: We know the Yankees can rely on their bullpen, but will they to the extent they need to or will Aaron Boone leave his starters in too long? On the other side, can Alex Cora find a bridge between his rotation and Craig Kimbrel that doesn’t cost his team a game or the series?
Left on right: It’s not as simple as the platoon advantages, but the Red Sox are going with two lefties presumably for three of the five starts in this series while the Yankees boast the best collection of right-handed hitting talent in baseball. If Sale and Price can navigate the lineup 2-3 times through with a lead, Boston should take the series.
Mookie Betts: He’s so freaking good. Ugh.

Athletics Wild Card bullpen primer: Finding cracks between Fiers and Treinen

September 28, 2018 by Steven Tydings

In five days time, the Athletics will come to Yankee Stadium for the Wild Card Game, armed with a cadre of relievers.

For sure, Oakland is defined by its lineup, which posted the second-best wRC+ in baseball and slugged .440 despite the spacious confines of the Coliseum. But the team didn’t win 96+ games just off its offense.

The team’s rotation, despite containing plenty of talent, has been ravaged by injuries and by all measures is mediocre. There’s a reason they’ve adopted an opener/bullpenning strategy to take up the back-end of their rotation in the last month.

Instead of winning with a strong rotation, the Athletics have been decidedly modern and turned to a strong bullpen. One has to figure Bob Melvin will follow that formula in the Wild Card Game, likely following a short stint from Mike Fiers with a series of their top relievers.

So where can the Yankees find cracks if they don’t get to the homer-prone Fiers?

Unlike last season with the Twins, the Athletics do have a pitcher to fear and that is All-Star closer Blake Treinen. Treinen has been good enough that he should earn some down-ballot Cy Young consideration. At age 30, the right-hander has finally figured out how to dominate with his electric upper-90s sinker.

Considering his 0.79 ERA (a 532 ERA+, not a typo), 0.832 WHIP and ability to go multiple innings, the Yankees basically need to get to the seventh inning with a lead or else Treinen likely finishes their season off. Treinen blew his last save, but that came on a pair of seeing-eye singles and a key error.

It would be one thing if the bullpen were just Treinen. However, the A’s have some standout rookies, a trio of former closers and a sprinkle of veterans in front of him, although each has their flaws.

Even better than Treinen in the first half was Lou Trivino, but the 26-year-old rookie has come crashing down to earth in the second half to the tune of a 5.86 ERA and a .280/.364/.449 line against him. The right-hander has been dealing with a neck issue to boot, but he still can fire the ball in the upper-90s easily.

Next up is Fernando Rodney. All I need to say is he’s Fernando Rodney. He walks way too many batters and the Yankees seem to own him. Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez certainly have.

For some reason, Rodney continues to get almost exclusively higher leverage innings. Someone, please explain this to me. Or don’t, and just make sure it happens on Oct. 3.

Another trade deadline acquisition was Jeurys Familia. A better and younger arm than Rodney to be sure, but he hasn’t been quite as sharp in Oakland compared to his Mets days. His peripherals have been better despite a rising walk rate. Like Rodney, the Yankees got to him in their one victory during their Labor Day series.

The other former closer is former Yankee Shawn Kelley, who’s been a mess in high leverage spots this year between the Nationals and Athletics. That likely has him lower on the totem pole for Wednesday’s clash.

If you take out Kelley, those are the tippy-top arms for the Athletics. But Melvin s plenty of tricks (or relievers) up his sleeve. I’ll break them down quickly since there’s way too many to go into detail.

Ryan Buchter is the matchup lefty. If Didi Gregorius is healthy, he’s the matchup for Buchter. Otherwise, he’ll be waiting for Neil Walker, Brett Gardner or Greg Bird to enter the game. Maybe he gets an inning against righties, but this seems unnecessary with Oakland’s depth.
Yusmeiro Petit is a jack-of-all-trades. He can take long relief, but he’s pitched in one inning bursts recently, likely due to the increased depth in the pen.
Trevor Cahill and Edwin Jackson are each part of the rotation, yet each has some experience in the bullpen and could take up a long relief or emergency role in the Wild Card Game. The Yankees historically have hit both pitchers extremely well, but neither has seen the Yankees often the last few years.
Along those lines is Daniel Mengden. He’s primarily pitched behind an opener in recent weeks, but he had the Bombers’ number on Sept. 4, carrying a no-hitter into the middle innings. Don’t be shocked if he’s on the Wild Card Game roster, but it’s tough to see him slotting into middle relief with the Athletics clinging to a lead.
The Athletics could also utilize the opener with Liam Hendriks. The Australian right-hander has allowed a run in just one of seven “starts” this season and would work alongside Oakland’s right-handed options to counter the Yankees’ lineup.
Lastly, rookie J.B. Wendelken has allowed one run over 15 2/3 innings this year and his fastball-curve combination could have him ticketed for a postseason roster spot. Still, he hasn’t been trusted with a late-inning lead.

There are a few other arms that the A’s could turn to, but expect the formula to be Fiers and Treinen with some combination of Familia, Rodney, Trivino and Buchter in between. Oakland is able to meet the Yankees’ righty bats with plenty of right-handed power in the their bullpen with Buchter to seek out other matchups. If I had to put anyone else in there, Petit would get an inning if Fiers or whichever starter is out quickly, but he might not have the Proven Closer™ feel to him that some of the others have.

Stephen Tarpley has gone from September call-up to potential postseason LOOGY

September 27, 2018 by Steven Tydings

When the Yankees were faced with the prospect of a bullpen game Monday night, they turned to Jonathan Holder as the “opener.” That’s not all that surprising. Holder’s been one of the team’s top bullpen arms all year.

The surprise was who came next: a southpaw with the potential to earn a postseason roster spot.

As you can tell from the title of this piece, that lefty is Stephen Tarpley, who promptly sat down three Rays lefties in order. While Yankee fans likely assumed Justus Sheffield was the only September call-up with a chance to earn a postseason role, Tarpley has emerged as the LOOGY the Yankees haven’t had this year.

“He’s a problem for left-handed hitters,” Aaron Boone said of the young lefty. “He’s coming in pounding the zone. That sinker combined with the slider makes for a problem for lefties. That’s why he got on our radar this year … and he’s pitching his way into the conversation right here.”

The 25-year-old’s debut on Sept. 2 was highly forgettable, as he issued two walks and gave up three runs on three hits in an inning of work. He did, at least, pick up his first strikeout and show off his slider.

Since then, he’s been electric, holding batters to a .150/.227/.150 line with three hits, two walks and seven strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. Lefties are just 1-for-11 with a walk and five strikeouts against him. He saw a definite platoon split in Triple-A, though he was able to tame right-handers at earlier levels.

While I love me an up-and-coming middle reliever, let’s not get too hyped; He’s only had eight appearances. At most, he’ll throw around 10 innings in the majors before October after starting the season in Double-A. His highest leverage outing was Monday’s second inning, so he’s yet to really find himself in a pressure situation. That’s not ideal for a potential postseason piece.

He’s not going to unseat one of the Yankees’ top six in the pecking order, nor would you be apt to use him before Lance Lynn in long relief. Whether he beats out an extra bench player or not comes down to how he matches up with an opponent’s left-handed options.

Luckily, we’ve gotten a chance to see how he would attack some of his potential postseason assignments when he faced Brock Holt, Rafael Devers and Mitch Moreland in last week’s Red Sox series (He faced the Athletics but only right-handed batters).

After walking Holt, he pitched Devers backward, starting him with an 86-mph slider at the top of the zone.

He then missed with a slider before getting Devers to foul off his two-seam sinker. He went right back to that two-seam sinker and got Devers to swing and miss.

He attacked Moreland in a similar way. After getting a called strike on his four-seamer, he went away with the slider, prompting a swing and miss.

After a pair of foul balls — one on a slider and one on a sinker — Tarpley dropped down a bit for another sinker, catching Moreland looking to end the inning.

You can see in the gifs above why his mere motion would be tough on lefties. Pitching from his three-quarters arm slot, Tarpley ends up almost behind the LHB’s field of vision. That mixed with deception in his motion makes it uncomfortable for same-sided hitters.

Tarpley features four pitches consistently in his repertoire: A four-seam fastball that touches 95 mph, a high 80s slider, a low 80s curveball and his most frequent pitch, that two-seam sinker that goes in on lefties hands.

“I get a lot of movement to both sides of the plate,” Tarpley said about why he’s effective left-on-left, “and I kind of just read guys. If the guy is already uncomfortable out there and I’m feeling comfortable, I already have the advantage.”

The sinker is reminiscent of Zach Britton with the movement down and in on lefties that produces both swing-and-miss and worm-killing qualities, not that he’s quite on Britton’s level. As Lindsey Adler of The Athletic found in her profile of Tarpley, it’s not coincidence as Tarpley both watched video of Britton and received some tips from the lefty last offseason.

Unfortunately for Tarpley, there are two late-inning lefties and David Robertson’s platoon split sitting ahead of him in the pecking order even if he gets a postseason role. Jordan Montgomery and Jaime Garcia were the last guys on the Yankees’ 2017 postseason roster and they combined for one low-leverage appearance.

However, with a strong performance this month while getting his feet wet in the majors, Tarpley has made himself a pitcher to watch for the Yankees, both in October and future seasons.