River Avenue Blues

Right now, the Grandyman can’t

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Help me Kevin Long, you’re our only hope. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

The Yankees’ offensive outage over the last few weeks has been perplexing and frustrating, given the number of talented hitters on the team.  As discussed in my most recent post, injuries can explain a large portion of the Yankees’ struggles.  Missed time by Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, and Mark Teixeira, among others, has led to extra playing time by bench and platoon players such as Andruw Jones, Raul Ibanez, Ichiro Suzuki, Eric Chavez, and Jayson Nix.  Not surprising, they have largely failed to replace the lost production due to the injured Yankee stars.

However, injuries don’t tell the whole story.  As discussed in Tuesday’s post, the Yankees have also had to endure simultaneous underachieving of several important regulars.  The most perplexing struggles have been those of Curtis Granderson, who has been having a disappointing 2012 anyway, but has been absolutely horrendous of late.  His wRC+ has dropped 34 points between 2011 and 2012 (though to be fair, 2011 was a career year for Granderson), and recently, he has been even worse.  Since August 1, Curtis is batting a measly .179/.256/.387.  This is not a small sample size fluke, but over a month of absolutely awful performance.

I was curious to see what factors might be responsible for Granderson’s decreased production compared to 2011, and while I found no definitive solution, there are a few possibilities.  Compared to 2011, Granderson has been much less effective against fastballs.  While he is still above league average against the heater, according to Fangraphs, he is not crushing the pitch to the same extent that he was in 2011.  Additionally, Granderon’s performance against the curveball has suffered, going from about league average in 2011 to below average in 2012.  He is also swinging at slightly more pitches in 2012 (41.7% compared to 40.6% in 2011), but making less contact (72.3% of swings in 2012 compared to 78.2% in 2011).  He is swinging more both at pitches in the zone (not necessarily a bad thing) and out of the zone (almost definitely a bad thing).  However, the decrease in contact is not explained by fishing out of the zone, he is actually making less contact in the zone as well.  The contact rate is also significantly lower than he has posted in previous years, indicating that this is not just regression to the mean after a career-best 2011.

What could all this signify?  The fairly significant drop in contact is a red flag to me, possibly indicative of poor pitch recognition, bad swing mechanics, or decreasing bat speed.  It is hard to pinpoint which of these three (or any other factors) may be the most likely culprit here.  At 31, Granderson is not exactly over the hill, though his 2012 regression could be an indication that Granderson’s prime may be behind him.  He is still hitting for power, as demonstrated by his 34 home runs this year, but his batting average, OBP, and slugging have all decreased dramatically.

The question is whether Granderson’s statistical decline from 2011 is a product of a season-long decline, or more the result of his recent slump.  Looking at his monthly wOBA, there is a definite trend: .395 in March/April, .362 in May, .344 in June, .342 in July, .292 in August, and .072 in September. While August and September look like extreme outliers that may skew his overall line somewhat, the decreased production each month is a major cause for concern.

Ultimately, there is not much the Yankees can do about Granderson this year.  He is their only everyday center fielder with Brett Gardner out, and one of the biggest sources of home-run power in the lineup.  He will probably be hitting in the top half of the Yankee lineup for the rest of the season, so he will have ample opportunities to drive baserunners in and help create offense.  They have to hope that he can turn things around (or at least get back to the solid, but not spectacular level of production seen in June and July), perhaps with some #curing help from Kevin Long.

Granderson’s decline probably puts his future with the Yankees in jeopardy, though it is hard to imagine them not picking up his option for 2013.  That said, Granderson needs to pull his weight in the Yankee lineup for the rest of the season if the Yankees are going to hold on to their division lead, and prove that he is worthy of another big deal in New York.  He will need to do more than that for the Yankees to make a deep playoff run.  The talent is still there, but he needs to get things sorted out quickly, as his teammates have been pulling his dead weight for far too long.

Poll: The Biggest Threat

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(AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

Despite last night’s win, the Yankees are still in the middle of a borderline disaster ten-game stretch that has seen them go just 2-4 in the first six games. Their big and comfortable AL East lead has disappeared and right now they’re just one game up with 26 to play. We’re used to the Yankees battling the Rays for the division crown, but the Orioles are new to the mix this season after 15 years of being non-competitive. Because of that recent history, it’s easy to write them off. Heck, I did it pretty much all season up until about two or three weeks ago.

In a lot of ways, these current Orioles are similar to the 2008 Rays, who just snuck up on everyone and became good all of a sudden. I think the young talent on that 2008 Tampa team — Evan Longoria, Jamie Shields, David Price, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford , etc. — is way more impressive than what they have going on in Baltimore, but Buck Showalter has his team in the race in early-September and they deserve a ton of credit for that, even if Nate McLouth is batting third.

It’s obvious this four-game weekend series with the Orioles has enormous division title implications, but we can’t forget that the Rays are right there as well. They’re three back in the division, one good weekend from taking over first place. All three of the AL East contenders have different strengths and weaknesses, and yet they’re all essentially in the same position with roughly four weeks to go. The Yankees are fortunate that because they’re currently in the lead, they control their own destiny and theoretically don’t need help from anyone else.

Anyway, with a few hours to go before first pitch tonight, I figured it was a good time to see who you folks consider to be the biggest threat to the Bombers in the division race. Both the O’s and Rays are dangerous but I personally believe one of those two clubs is more dangerous than the other. You might feel differently, so let’s find out…

Who is the biggest threat to the AL East crown?
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9/6-9/9 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

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(Jed Jacobsohn/Getty)

For the second time in the span of a week, the Yankees and Orioles will play their biggest series of the season against one another. Baltimore won two of three last weekend in Yankee Stadium and the season series is now knotted up at seven. For what it’s worth, the Yankees have won four of five in Camden Yards this season, but all five of those games were played way back in April and May.

What Have They Done Lately?

After the series in the Bronx last weekend, the Orioles went up to Toronto and took two of three from the Blue Jays. The O’s had won three straight prior to yesterday’s loss and have won nine of their last twelve overall. At 76-60 with a -21 run differential, Baltimore is one game back of the Yankees for the AL East lead. So yeah, these four games are huge.

Offense

(Brad White/Getty)

At 4.3 runs per game, the Orioles are an ever-so-slightly below league average offensive team. Their best player all season has been Adam Jones (126 wRC+), who leads the club with both 27 homers and 13 steals. Nick Markakis (126 wRC+) has really settled in as the leadoff hitter and Mark Reynolds (114 wRC+) has come on incredibly strong these last few weeks. You may remember his two two-homer games in the Bronx a week ago. Markakis isn’t as much of a power threat as the other two, but you can make a pretty strong argument that he is their best all-around hitter.

The rest of the everyday crew is highlighted by catcher and defensive whiz Matt Wieters (98 wRC+). Nate McLouth (65 wRC+) still hits third and J.J. Hardy (73 wRC+) is just ahead of him in the two-hole, then way down in the nine-spot is top prospect Manny Machado (107 wRC+). The various platoon bats include Chris Davis (113 wRC+ vs. RHP), Omar Quintanilla (94 wRC+ vs. RHP), Lew Ford (113 wRC+ vs. LHP), and former Yankee Wilson Betemit (113 wRC+ vs. RHP). Robert Andino (59 wRC+), Taylor Teagarden (27 wRC+), and Ryan Flaherty (50 wRC+) have been bench guys all season while the lot of September call-ups includes third catcher Luis Exposito, infielder Steve Tolleson, and outfielder Xavier Avery.

Pitching Matchups

Thursday: RHP David Phelps vs. RHP Jason Hammel
Hammel, 30, will be activated off the DL in time for tonight’s game after missing a little less than two months with a right knee injury. He made one five-inning rehab start last week and that’s it, but prior to that he was Baltimore’s best starter — 3.54 ERA (3.25 FIP) with career bests in the strikeout (8.73 K/9 and 23.1 K%), ground ball (53.6%), and homer (0.66 HR/9) departments. His walk rate (3.21 BB/9 and 8.5 BB%) is solid as well. Hammel reinvented himself as a low-to-mid-90s two-seamer/mid-80s slider pitcher following the offseason trade to the Orioles, though he’ll still throw four-seamers at the same velocity as the two-seamer with some upper-70s curveballs and a handful of upper-80s changeups mixed in as well. He had one good (two runs in six innings) and one bad (five runs in five innings) start against New York prior earlier this season.

(Jim Rogash/Getty)

Friday: RHP Phil Hughes vs. LHP Wei-Yin Chen
The Yankees saw the 27-year-old Taiwanese southpaw just last week, when he held them to four runs in 6.2 innings after dominating the early innings. That was the one game the Bombers won in the series. Otherwise, Chen has been rock solid in his inaugural MLB season, pitching to a 3.79 ERA (4.21 FIP) in 163.2 innings. His peripherals — 7.37 K/9 (19.5 K%), 2.80 BB/9 (7.4 BB%), 38.1% grounders — are more solid than stellar, but there’s nothing wrong with that at all. Chen, as you might remember from last week, is a low-90s four-seamer guy who mixes in a low-80s slider to lefties and a low-80s changeup to righties. The Yankees have seen him three times already this year, so the element of surprise should be gone by now.

Saturday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Joe Saunders
If you believe some of the things being written these days, the Orioles acquired Saunders for the sole purpose of combating the suck-against-lefties Yankees. The 31-year-old has had one good (6.1 scoreless innings) and one terrible (seven runs in 5.1 innings) start with Baltimore, and overall has pitched to a 4.26 ERA (4.11 FIP) in 141.2 innings this summer. Saunders current owns his best strikeout (6.04 K/9 and 15.6 K%) and walk (2.22 BB/9 and 5.7 BB%) rates since becoming a full-time starter, though his 42.9% ground ball rate is a career-low. He’s a four-pitch guy, using a pair of upper-80s fastballs (two- and four-seamers) to setup his low-80s changeup and mid-80s slider. It’s worth noting that Saunders has one of, if not the largest platoon split among all qualified starters — he’s held same-side hitters to a measly .218 wOBA while righties have tagged him for a .358 wOBA. That .140-point difference is pretty much the difference between Robinson Cano and Chris Stewart, just for some perspective. It’s massive, so the right-handers are going to have to step up in this one.

Sunday: LHP Zach Britton vs. RHP Freddy Garcia
It’s pretty amazing that these two teams played three games last weekend and will play another four this weekend, yet Chen is the only starter the Yankees will see in both series. Britton, 24, came off the DL in mid-July and has been absolutely stellar after taking about four weeks to settle in. Across his last four starts (28.2 IP), he’s allowed just three total runs on 21 hits and seven walks against 29 strikeouts. He wasn’t a two-time Baseball America Top 100 Prospect by accident.

Anyway, Britton owns a deceivingly high 4.15 ERA (3.97 FIP) and is typically much more about ground balls (60.6%) than strikeouts (7.96 K/9 and 20.3 K%). His walk rate (3.98 BB/9 and 10.1 BB%) seems high given his recent performance, but he was never exactly a control machine in the past anyway. A bowling ball low-90s two-seamer is his bread-and-butter pitch, though Britton will also use a four-seamer at the same velocity and a low-80s slider to lefties. Righties will see the occasional mid-80s changeup. As good as Hammel and Chen have been this year, this is the game that I think will be the toughest for the Yankees. Britton can be really, really good.

(Dave Reginek/Getty)

Bullpen Status
Expanded rosters and some lengthy starts this week means manager Buck Showalter has an awful lot of fresh arms at his disposal. Closer Jim Johnson (3.36 FIP) and setup man Pedro Strop (3.28 FIP) have both had two consecutive days off, and given the enormity of this series, I would guess that will be available in all four games if needed. Right-handed specialist Darren O’Day (2.91 FIP) has had three days off and he’s another guy we could see four times this weekend if push comes to shove.

Showalter’s three left-handed relievers are Zach Phillips (13.31 FIP in very limited time), scuffling former top prospect Brian Matusz (5.03 FIP), and veteran hanger-on Randy Wolf (5.03 FIP). Other bullpen regulars include former Yankee Luis Ayala (3.90 FIP) and Kevin Gregg (4.70 FIP) while the other two September call-ups are former starter Tommy Hunter (6.17 FIP) and Steve Johnson (3.61 FIP in limited time). Ayala, Matusz, and Hunter all made brief appearances yesterday, so like I said, lots of fresh arms for Showalter coming into the series.

Joe Girardi used his top three relievers to nail down yesterday’s win, including David Robertson for four outs. Neither he nor Boone Logan and Rafael Doriano threw a ton of pitches, so all three will be available again tonight. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for exact recent reliever usage, then check out my personal favorite Orioles blog Camden Crazies.

Back in first: Yanks hold on for win over Rays

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For at least one game, all was right in Yankeeland. The Bombers battled in their 6-4 win over the Rays, salvaging a three-game series that had gone nothing but wrong up until Wednesday night.

(J. Meric/Getty)

No RISPFAIL

Man, it looked like we were in for another one of those games in the first inning. Derek Jeter led off the game with a single, but he didn’t advance any further after Nick Swisher struck out and Robinson Cano bounced into a double play. That’s happened far too often in recent weeks. Matt Moore settled down and retired eight straight until Jeter led off the third with another single, a charitable piece of scoring as Elliot Johnson dropped a pop-up in shallow center. Obviously wasn’t a routine play for the second baseman, but it hit him right in the glove.

Anyway, as we all waited for the RISPFAIL to set in, something weird happened: the Yankees scored some runs. Plural. Swisher followed Jeter with a fly ball to right but Cano put men on first and second with a walk. It was a good time for Alex Rodriguez to deliver his hardest-hit ball since coming off the DL, a line drive double to left. That scored Jeter and put men at second and third for Russell Martin. Martin plated both with a ground rule double to the right field corner, a play made possible by a sketchy route taken by Matt Joyce. After weeks worth of blown opportunities, the 3-1 lead after three and a half innings felt like a minor miracle.

M-M-My Kuroda

>( (J. Meric/Getty)

One of the most deflating things for a team struggling through a losing stretch is blown leads, and Hiroki Kuroda chipped in a pair of those on Wednesday. The 3-1 lead lasted just one full inning while a 4-3 lead hung around for two whole batters. The two-run fifth was much worse, mostly because Kuroda got two quick outs and had the punchless Sam Fuld down 0-2 in the count. Instead of putting him away, Hiroki walked him and proceeded to blow the lead on a Desmond Jennings single and Ben Zobrist triple. Zobrist was down to two strikes as well, and Kuroda appeared to be focused too much on the baserunner on first. It was a real bad mistake pitch, a fastball right on a tee.

Other than that, Kuroda allowed a first inning run on an Evan Longoria single and a sixth inning run on a Luke Scott solo homer after Martin gave his team another lead with a solo homer. Eight hits and two walks in six innings is the definition of a laborious start, which is pretty much all the Yankees seem to get from their staff these days. Considering that the Rays had the leadoff men on-base in five of his six innings and left runners on in four of the six, I suppose it coulda been a whole lot worse.

(J. Meric/Getty)

Small Ball

Hitting coach Kevin Long said the Yankees would employ a little more small ball to escape this rut following Tuesday’s loss, something Joe Girardi refuted before this game. When push came to shove though, the Yankees went to the bunt. Andruw Jones and Steve Pearce led the seventh off with first-pitch singles, then Jayson Nix bunted them into scoring position. With the infield in and former Yankee Kyle Farnsworth on the bump, Jeter grounded a routine ball to Johnson at second, who came home for the non-force out. Unfortunately for Tampa, it was wide left and not only did pinch-runner Ichiro Suzuki score from third, but Pearce chugged around to score from second as well.

When I said the Yankees needed to pick their spots with the bunts on Wednesday afternoon, this was exactly the kind of situation I was talking about. Close (or in this case, tied) game in the later innings, bottom of the order due up. This one worked even better because the runner on second was pushed over to third with less than two outs. Ichiro was dead to rights at home if Johnson’s throw was on-line, so the Yankees did benefit from the error in a huge way. That said, they forced the Rays to make the perfect play and they couldn’t execute it. For at least one night, small ball reigned supreme.

Late-Inning Relief

(J. Meric/Getty)

The Yankees only have three reliable relievers in their bullpen — two and a half really, since Boone Logan is a specialist — and all three combined to nail down the much-needed win. Logan didn’t allow any contact, striking out two and walking one while facing just the three hitters in the seventh. David Robertson came out of the bullpen for the four-out hold, escaping the seventh with a big assist from a nice running grab by Jeter in shallow left. If that thing blooped in — there were runners on first and second — I would have been quite annoyed.

Robertson, who threw just one curveball out of 18 pitches, followed up with a perfect eighth before handing the ball off to former Rays closer Rafael Soriano for a perfect ninth. Soriano really tested the limits of Tropicana Field with the 27th out, a Jennings fly ball right to the wall in dead center. That ball is probably out in the Bronx considering how much better the ball carries outside than it does in the air-conditioned dome. Anyway, the three reliable relievers did a solid job protecting what felt like the most important lead of the season.

Leftovers

Jeter had a huge game and really carried his club to the win. He had three hits, stole third, and was involved in both multi-run rallies, plus he made the nice defensive play to end the seventh. The three knocks give him an MLB-best 182 hits for the season, the most by a 38-year-old shortstop in baseball history. He still has 26 games left to go, so 200 hits seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. It’s worth noting that Jeter tweaked his ankle on Tuesday and aggravated it a bit on the play in the seventh, but it’s nothing that will keep him out of the lineup according to Girardi.

Martin was the only other player with multiple hits, and both of his went for extra bases. He’s managed to get his average (temporarily) above the Mendoza line at .202. Both Swisher and Curtis Granderson went 0-4 with two strikeouts while Nix went 0-for-3 with three whiffs and the sacrifice bunt. As a team, the Yankees struck out a season-high tying 15 times. They did that one other time, in the final game of the three-game sweep by the White Sox in Chicago two weeks ago. The Chris Sale game.

Annoying but true fact: the Rays had at least one inning in all three games in which they scored a run after having two outs and no baserunners in the inning. The Yankees have really struggled to finish off innings at times. With play like that, it’s not much of a surprise that they won just two of nine games at Tropicana Field this season.

This certainly wasn’t a game for Elliot Johnson’s career highlight reel. He botched a safety squeeze attempt in the second, dropped the pop-up to start the fourth inning rally, and threw away the ball on what proved to be the game-winning rally in the seventh. It was downright Nunezian, if I do say so myself.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights while ESPN has the updated standings. The Orioles actually lost to the Blue Jays, so the Yankees have reclaimed sole possession of first place one night after relinquishing it. The Rays are three back in the loss column and the magic number sits at 26 with exactly that many games left to play. Hooray for controlling your own destiny.


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next

The Yankees haven’t won consecutive games since taking three straight from the Rangers a few weeks ago (remember that? feels like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it?), but they’ll try to get off that schneid when they arrive in Baltimore for the latest biggest series of the season on Thursday. It’ll be the second important September series these two teams have played a) in a week, and b) in the last 15 years. Craziness. David Phelps will oppose Jason Hammel — who is coming off the DL to make the start — in the evening opener.

Empire State & Trenton open playoffs with losses

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Based on his Twitter feed, RHP David Aardsma will make his next minor league rehab appearance with Double-A Trenton tomorrow.

Triple-A Empire State (7-4 loss to Pawtucket) Pawtucket leads the best-of-five series 1-0
3B Kevin Russo: 1-5, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K
2B Corban Joseph: 2-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K — he and Russo hit a nice job atop the lineup, but…
LF Ronnie Mustelier: 0-4 — didn’t make them pay
1B Luke Murton: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K — first game at the Triple-A level and he goes deep after leading the system in homers during the regular season
CF Melky Mesa, RF Cole Garner & DH Darnell McDonald: both 1-4, 1 2B — Garner drove in a run and struck out three times … McDonald whiffed
C Austin Romine: 0-3, 1 R, 1 BB
SS Ramiro Pena: 2-4
RHP John Maine: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1/2 GB/FB — 64 of 101 pitches were strikes … had two very strong innings before things came apart in the middle of the game
RHP Chase Whitley: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 3/0 GB/FB — 19 of 31 pitches were strikes (61%)
RHP Kelvin Perez: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 0/1 GB/FB — 13 of 19 pitches were strikes

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Update: Yankees & Dodgers will play a home-and-home next year

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September 5th: Via Shaikin, the Yankees and Dodgers will play a home-and-home series next year. The Dodgers will play two games in the Bronx in June while the Yankees will play three out in Los Angeles in July. Hooray for that.

August 26th: Via Bill Shaikin, the Dodgers will visit Yankee Stadium for an interleague series next season. This is long, long overdue — the Dodgers have not played the Yankees in the Bronx since the 1981 World Series. The clubs also met in the 1963, 1977, and 1978 Fall Classics after the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles in 1958.

Over the last few weeks we’ve learned that the Giants are also tentatively scheduled to visit Yankee Stadium next summer, and that the Bombers will open their season with three games at home against the Red Sox. The Dodgers have very suddenly morphed into the Yankees West, which is kinda exciting to watch as a baseball fan from afar. I’ll enjoy seeing it up close next season, that’s for sure.

Game 136: Game One

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(Ronald Martinez/Getty)

It’s a new season. The Yankees and Orioles are tied atop the AL East — the Rays are right on their tails as well — and they have 27 games to sort this thing out. The division lead has already been blown, there’s nothing anyone can do about that. Start this season with a win and get off a right foot. Here’s the starting nine…

SS Derek Jeter
RF Nick Swisher
DH Robinson Cano
3B Alex Rodriguez
C  Russell Martin
CF Curtis Granderson
LF Andruw Jones
1B Steve Pearce
2B Jayson Nix

RHP Hiroki Kuroda

Tonight’s game starts a little after 7pm ET and can seen on YES locally and MLB Network nationally.

Team Meeting Update: The Yankees did hold a 20-ish minute team meeting before tonight’s game, just to kinda talk about the next 27 games and stuff. As you can imagine, Joe Girardi wasn’t exactly willing to divulge the details afterward. It’s the club’s second team meeting in the last week.