New thread just to keep the site moving smoothly. Go Yankees.
ALDS Game One Thread: Yankees @ Orioles
There are a lot of parallels between this year and 1996, isn’t there? The Yankees and Orioles finished one-two in the division that year, but the Bombers had a double-digit lead at midseason and nearly blew it in September, just like this season. The two clubs met in the ALCS that year, but the new rules allow them to meet in the ALDS this season even though they own the two best records in the circuit. That’s the reward for finishing the best record in the AL I guess, opening the series on the road against the second best team in the league.
Anyway, the weather in Baltimore is not great. It’s been raining on-and-off all day, but there appears to be enough of a window to get the game in tonight. After the suspended game nonsense last year, I really hope they’re 100% certain they’ll get the entire game in tonight before having the pitchers warm up and everything. I’d rather not see the Yankees and CC Sabathia go through that again. Here are the starting lineups…
New York Yankees
SS Derek Jeter
LF Ichiro Suzuki
3B Alex Rodriguez
2B Robinson Cano
RF Nick Swisher
1B Mark Teixeira
CF Curtis Granderson
C Russell Martin
DH Raul Ibanez
CC Sabathia (15-6, 3.38)
Baltimore Orioles
LF Nate McLouth
SS J.J. Hardy
CF Adam Jones
C Matt Wieters
1B Mark Reynolds
DH Chris Davis
RF Lew Ford
3B Manny Machado
2B Robert Andino
Jason Hammel (8-6, 3.43)
Tonight’s game is scheduled to start at 6:07pm ET and can be seen on TBS. If the Nationals and Cardinals are still playing, the start of this game will air on TNT instead. No word on whether there will be any kind of delay just yet. Enjoy the game.
Update (5:53pm ET): The game is officially in a rain delay and no start time has been announced. Stay tuned for updates.
Update (7:30pm ET): Just so you don’t think I’ve been ignoring things, a start time still has not been announced. Better get settled in, it might be a long night.
Update (8:02pm ET): The game is scheduled to start at approximately 8:40pm ET. Better late than never, I suppose.
Orioles’ Strength: Protecting the Extra Base
The Yankees are a few hours away from opening their best-of-five ALDS matchup against the Orioles, a team they know pretty well since they reside in the same division. The pitchers should be familiar, the hitters should be familiar, and everyone’s defensive abilities should be familiar.
The Orioles were rated as a below-average defensive team overall by the various advanced metrics this year, but they are strong up the middle with Matt Wieters behind the plate, J.J. Hardy at short, and Adam Jones in center. One thing Baltimore’s defenders do very well is stop the other team’s running game, which means the Yankees won’t be able to create much havoc on the bases these next few days.
No Stolen Bases For You
Thanks to the cannon arm of Wieters, the Orioles led the AL in throwing out attempted base-stealers and not by a small margin. Overall, they threw out 36 of 99 base-stealers (36.4%), far better than the second place Blue Jays (33.1%). Wieters threw out nearly 40% (38.6% to be exact) of the runners who tried to steal again him, which is well above the ~25% league average. Only Ryan Hanigan (48.5%), Yadier Molina (47.9%), and Miguel Montero (42.1%) were better among regular catchers, and in case you haven’t noticed, all of those guys play in the NL. Over the last two years, it’s a 37.7% throw-out rate for Wieters. The guy just shuts the running game down.
Perhaps the best way to look at this is just in terms of number of attempts. Opponents attempted a stolen base just 99 times against the Orioles this season, tied with the Cardinals for the second fewest in baseball. Only the Diamondbacks (85) had fewer steals attempted against them. The Yankees, for what it’s worth, had the fifth fewest stolen bases attempted against them this year (118). Anyway, the Bombers are called the Bombers for a reason, and that’s because they don’t steal all that much. Their 93 team steals (120 attempts) were the eighth fewest in baseball, and only four players had double-digit steals: Ichiro Suzuki (14), Alex Rodriguez (13), Eduardo Nunez (11), and Curtis Granderson (10). The stolen base isn’t a huge part of the Yankees’ offense, but it’ll likely be a non-factor in the ALDS thanks to Wieters.
Outfield Arms
The Yankees catch a little bit of a break because Nick Markakis, one of Baltimore’s all-around best players, is still sidelined with a broken thumb that will keep him on the shelf through the ALDS. He actually originally suffered the injury against the Yankees, when CC Sabathia hit him with a pitch. With Markakis out and Jim Thome healthy, the Orioles have been playing Chris Davis in right field, his worst position. He’s not especially quick or the smoothest of route takers, but the one thing he has going for him defensively is his arm, which is a rocket. Here, look…
It’s unfortunate that TBS cut to Nelson Cruz running like that, but you can still see how strong that throw was. Davis got it to third on the fly, and you probably won’t be surprised to learn that he used to pitch — “Davis also has touched 93 mph off the mound,” wrote Baseball America in their draft write-up back in 2004, the year the Yankees selected him in the 50th round but did not sign him. Anyway, enough with the nostalgia.
With Davis and Adam Jones, another former amateur pitcher who has long owned one of the strongest arms in baseball, patrolling the outfield, the Orioles are not a team that allows runners to take the extra-base very often. In situations where a runner could have gone first-to-third on a single hit to Jones, the runner held at second 69.2% of the time. The league average for center fielders is 43.8%. They don’t even run on his arm anymore. Davis only played 230 innings in right this year (and in his career), so we don’t have reliable data for him. Still though, look at that .gif. Runners beware.
* * *
The Yankees were a very station-to-station team this year, due in large part to Brett Gardner’s injury and Nunez’s demotion to the minors. They did, however, steal 27 bases (in 33 attempts) in the final 29 games of the season thanks to Ichiro’s scorching hit finish, A-Rod’s return to the lineup, and Nunez’s return to the majors. In terms of taking the extra-base on first-to-thirds, etc., the Yankees attempted it only 37.3% of the time compared to the 40% league average. With Wieters behind the plate and the duo of Jones and Davis in the outfield, New York is going to have to be very judicious about trying to create offense with their legs in the ALDS.
Update: Gardner NOT starting over Ichiro tonight
2:26pm: Nevermind, apparently there was just a typo on the board in the press box. Ichiro is starting and batting second tonight.
2:20pm: Here’s a shocker: Brett Gardner is starting in left field over Ichiro Suzuki tonight. Ichiro is 7-for-12 lifetime against Orioles starter Jason Hammel, which leads me to believe he’s banged up. Curtis Granderson has moved up to second in the lineup while Gardner will hit ninth.
Nix & Lowe make ALDS roster
Bits and pieces have trickled out over the last few days, but the Yankees finally announced their full 25-man roster for ALDS. It was officially due at 10am ET today. Here we go…
Pitchers (11): RHPs Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, David Phelps, and Derek Lowe. LHPs CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Boone Logan, and Clay Rapada.
Catchers (2): Russell Martin and Chris Stewart.
Infielders (7): 1B Mark Teixeira, 2B Robinson Cano, SS Derek Jeter, 3B Alex Rodriguez, IF Eduardo Nunez, IF Eric Chavez, and UTIL Jayson Nix.
Outfielders (5): Ichiro Suzuki, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, and Raul Ibanez.
As expected, Andruw Jones did not crack the roster following his dreadful second half. Nix grabbed the last roster spot after working out the last few days and showing no ill-effects of the left hip flexor strain that sidelined him for a week. Having him on the bench will free up Joe Girardi to use Nunez a little more liberally, either as a pinch-hitter (for Ibanez against left-handers, primarily) or pinch-runner. Gardner has been cleared to swing the bat, but his main purpose will be pinch-running and defense.
Lowe beat out Ivan Nova and Cody Eppley for the final bullpen spot, which isn’t a big surprise. Nova has pitched terribly in the second half and Eppley is basically the same type of pitcher as Lowe, but he can’t go multiple innings or provide the whole “been there, done that” veteran experience thing. I’m curious to see how Phelps will be used, meaning as a true long man or a middle innings setup man. I have a feeling Lowe will get any important work in the fifth and/or sixth inning. Sabathia will start Game One tonight and be followed in order by Pettitte, Kuroda, and Hughes.
ALDS Pitching Preview: Jason Hammel
The Orioles shocked the baseball world this year by winning 93 games and advancing to the ALDS, and they did it while using a dozen different starting pitchers. Seven different pitchers made at least 15 starts, including the 30-year-old Jason Hammel. He emerged as the club’s ace early in the season and wound up pitching to a 3.43 ERA and 3.29 FIP. After years of mediocrity with the (Devil) Rays and Rockies, something seemed the click after moving to Baltimore in the Jeremy Guthrie trade last offseason.
Hammel was announced as the team’s Game One starter for tonight even though he battled knee problems throughout the second half. He had surgery on the knee in mid-July and then dealt with post-surgery soreness in September. Although he threw 118 total innings this season, only 8.2 came after the All-Star break. He made his final regular season start on September 11th, but did made a lengthy rehab start in Instructional League last week and threw a regular between-starts side session on Friday, saying that it “was outstanding.”
So yeah, there is an awful lot of uncertainty surrounding Hammel coming into tonight’s start. How will the knee hold up while pitching in an adrenaline-filled playoff start? Will his pitch count be limited? Will his command or stuff suffer as he favors the knee, perhaps subconsciously? It’s not an easy position to be in, but Buck Showalter felt Hammel was the best man of the job and is giving him the ball.
2012 Performance vs. Yankees
Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | BF | Pit | Str | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Apr 30 | BAL | @ | NYY | L,1-2 | L(3-1) | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1.97 | 24 | 101 | 60 |
May 14 | BAL | NYY | L,5-8 | 5.0 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2.68 | 24 | 95 | 60 | ||
Sep 6 | BAL | NYY | W,10-6 | 5.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3.46 | 22 | 82 | 54 |
Despite the knee injury, Hammel was still able to make three starts against the Yankees this season, the third of which was his first start following the knee surgery. As you can see, two of the three starts went well for the Orioles while the other was pretty rough. Hammel owns a 6.20 ERA (~5.80 FIP) in 45 career innings against the Yankees, but his performance against the Bombers in past years is relatively meaningless. Not only has he changed his pitching style since then, but the Yankees have turned over most of their roster as well as moved into a new ballpark.
Pitch Selection (via Brooks Baseball)
Prior to this season, Hammel was predominantly a four-seam fastball/curveball pitcher who would mix in the other pitches on occasion. He’s reinvented himself as a sinker/slider guy, especially against right-handed batters. The slider takes a back seat to the curve and changeup against lefties, which is typical. The two fastballs sat anywhere from the low-to-mid-90s this season, continuing a slight upward trend these last two or three years. Hammel’s slider is a hard mid-80s breaker, the curveball a softer upper-70s offering, and the changeup a hard upper-80s pitch. Power changeups from right-handed pitchers are the new black, apparently.
Performance & Results
TBF | wOBA | FIP | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | LD% | HR/FB% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
vs. RHB | 236 | 0.304 | 3.52 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 56.7% | 25.6% | 17.7% | 11.9% |
vs. LHB | 257 | 0.260 | 3.09 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 49.7% | 30.5% | 19.8% | 7.8% |
The knee injury knocked out a significant portion of his season, so our sample size of the “new” Hammel is only 500 batters or so. When he was healthy this year, the right-hander did perform considerably better against left-handed batters because he was able to keep them in the park while enjoying some BABIP love (.258 vs .325). His true talent level is likely something in the middle of those numbers, maybe a touch higher for righties given his ground ball tendencies.
It’s really unfortunate that we don’t more data on the Orioles’ version of Hammel, a guy that had changed his pitching style and shown very real improvement. This isn’t a case of a career back-end starter having a fluke career year … well, maybe it is, but at least there is some tangible evidence for Hammel’s improvement this season. The knee injury and how he returns from it after such a long layoff is the great unknown here, especially since it’s his push-off leg. If he doesn’t have full confidence in it yet, he could end up losing some velocity or movement on his breaking pitching. The Yankees have seen the new Hammel a few times this year, so by now they are surely aware that he isn’t the same guy they used to beat up on years ago.
ALDS Ticket Price Deals via RAB Tickets
Well, if there’s one unfortunate thing about the Yankees playing the Orioles in the ALDS, it’s that the ticket prices are a bit higher than if they would have been playing the Rangers. Then again, the travel is a whole lot easier if you’re commuting from New York. Anyway, if you want to catch any of the games this series, use RAB Tickets to get the best possible deals.