River Avenue Blues

Just say no to Bronson Arroyo

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It all started yesterday afternoon. AOL FanHouse’s Jeff Fletcher noted that the Reds were “close to doing something,” meaning the completion of a trade. The likely candidates were Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, and Francisco Cordero. Each makes quite a large sum for the rest of this year and next, and with the Reds out of contention it would make sense for them to get out from under at least one of those contracts. Any time we hear that something is close, ears perk up. It didn’t take long for Fletcher to find out which deal the Reds were “close” to.

About two hours after his original report, Fletcher wrote the the Reds and Yankees were working on a deal for Bronson Arroyo. This sent a tremor through the Yankees fanbase. Why in the hell would they want Bronson Arroyo? He’s pitched progressively worse every year since the Red Sox traded him to the Reds, and he’s owed a ridiculous amount of money for the remainder of this year and next. Considering the monetary and potential player costs of acquiring Arroyo, an easy case could be made that the Yankees would be better off standing pat.

A 1995 third-round pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Arroyo struggled in his first few seasons, allowing way too many hits while walking too many batters for his strikeout rate. In February of 2003, after stints over the previous three seasons, the Pirates placed Arroyo on waivers. The Red Sox picked him up. He wouldn’t join the big league club full-time until 2004, but when he arrived he did not disappoint, posting a 3:1 K/BB ratio over 178.2 innings.

The next year wasn’t so kind to Arroyo. He pitched 205.1 innings for the Sox, but his strikeout rate plummeted from 7.2 per nine in 2004 to 4.4 per nine in 2005. This helped cause a half-run increase in his ERA. Still, the Sox apparently thought he was still worth holding onto, signing him to a three year, $11.25 million contract in January 2006. Little did Arroyo know that the contract would be his ticket out the door.

In March 2006, the Sox swapped Arroyo and $1.5 million for Wily Mo Pena. In essence, Arroyo had agreed to a team-friendly deal, only to have it used as trade bait. Whether it was the effect of pitching in the NL, the desire to prove the Red Sox wrong, or just sheer luck, Arroyo pitched insanely well in 2006, posting a 3.29 ERA over 240.2 innings, bumping his strikeout rate back up to around seven per nine, and improving his K/BB ratio to 2.88:1, up from 1.85:1 in 2005. The Reds thought they had found a gem, while Wily Mo languished with the Sox, and would eventually be traded in August 2007.

Apparently not content to ride out the remainder of Arroyo’s team-friendly deal, the Reds signed him to a two-year, $25 million extension in February of 2007. The move was perplexing at the time. Why would the Reds, with Arroyo under contract for two more seasons at an eminently reasonable rate, sign him for two additional seasons, plus an expensive club option, with a relatively expensive buyout, for 2011? His 2007 performance would add to those questions.

In his second year in Cincinnati, Arroyo made one fewer start than in his first, but pitched 30 fewer innings. His WHIP rose from 1.19 to 1.40. One reason for his decline is the rise in his number of hits per nine innings — almost 10 in 2007, compared to 8.3 in 2006. His ERA rose yet again in 2008, to 4.77, below league average. Again he made 34 starts, but pitched 10 fewer innings than in 2007. His WHIP took another jump to 1.435. All this before the contract extension kicked in.

This is the first year of the extension, and Arroyo has not earned his $9.5 million to this point. His ERA sits at 5.21, the worst it’s been since 2001, and which also places him as the league leader in earned runs allowed. His WHIP has climbed again to 1.472. Worst of all, his walk rate is near 3.5 per nine, and his strikeout rate is just 5.3 per nine, down from 7.3 per nine last season. He’s essentially gotten worse with each passing year on the Reds.

Arroyo has posted a few gems this year, including a July 10 complete game shutout of the Mets. He followed that up with seven innings of shutout ball against the Brewers. However, in his last start against the Dodgers he posted another clunker, five runs over 5.1 innings, including four walks. It’s just another start in Bronson Arroyo’s horribly inconsistent 2009 season.

With all this in mind, it’s difficult, if not impossible, to understand why the Yankees would want to acquire Arroyo. He’s pitched well in the past, but he’s certainly not the pitcher he claimed to be in 2006. His contract is among the worst in the game, and he’s still owed $13 million next season, considering his buyout. Bad pitcher + bad contract = bad acquisition. It’s as simple as that. So why are the Yankees connected with this guy?

Apparently, the rumor was just that. As PeteAbe noted, the Yanks shot it down. Jon Heyman got a quote saying that a trade is “not realistic at this point.” Even Fletcher, whose source said that the deal “will get done,” subsequently removed the line from his post. All seems to be right again for the Yankees.

There are still three more days until the 4 p.m. trade deadline on Friday, and the Yanks could certainly make a move for a pitcher before then. As we noted yesterday, the Yanks might not be able to acquire a significant target after the deadline, because the Sox are in second place and could block a potential move. Both teams would benefit with an upgrade at the backs of their rotations. Despite his overtures, expect Cashman to treat this deadline with a sense of urgency. If there is a deal to be made, expect him to pursue it. We just hope it’s not for Bronson Arroyo.

Are CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett being overworked?

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AJ BurnettLast night, Joe Girardi sent AJ Burnett back out to the mound for the seventh inning even though his pitch count was already over 100 pitches (104 to be exact), and it wasn’t the first time we’ve seen him extend his starting pitcher beyond a point we’re not used to seeing. We’re conditioned to accept that 100 pitches is the point where a pitcher loses effectiveness and is at greater risk for injury, and anytime we see one of the Yankees starters go beyond this point we all cringe a little.

As crazy as it sounds and as unexpected as it may be, Burnett has been an absolute horse for the Yanks this year. He’s failed to pitch into the sixth inning just twice in twenty starts this year, and has gone into the seventh twelve times, including six of his last seven starts. CC Sabathia has been even more of a workhorse, pitching into the sixth in 19 of his 21 starts and into the seventh a staggering 17 times. He’s failed to record at least 21 outs in a start just four times since the end of April.

As you would expect, both Sabathia and Burnett are up there in innings this year, checking in at 142.1 and 127.1 IP, respectively. While we’re conditioned to look at innings as a measure of workload, we should be paying attention to the number of pitches thrown. Both guys rank in the top ten in the league in pitches thrown, as CC checks in at 2,210 pitches (4th most) and AJ at 2,115 (10th). Sabathia has thrown at least 105 pitches in 15 starts this year, Burnett 11 times.

The crew at Baseball Prospectus developed a stat called Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP), which is intended to measure … well … pitcher abuse. You can read a ton more about PAP here, but it’s calculated by cubing each pitch a guy throws past 100 in a start, and just summing up the “points.” So if Sabathia throws 105 pitches in a start, his PAP is 125 (five pitches cubed, or 5 x 5 x 5). Justin Verlander is the far and away the most abused pitcher in the game this season, checking in at 85,763 PAP. CC ranks 8th with 45,585 PAP, while AJ’s 31,387 PAP is good for 17th. Here’s the full PAP leaderboard for your viewing pleasure.

Throwing lots and lots of pitches is generally understood to be a bad thing, which it is. You want your pitchers to throw as few pitches as possible to limit the wear and tear on their shoulders. However, some pitches are worse than others, specifically pitches in stressful situations. If Burnett throws 30 pitches in an inning because he’s allowed a couple of baserunners and the hitters have worked deep counts, it’s far more taxing on his arm than if he threw those same 30 pitches spread over two quick and uneventful innings.

On the season, Sabathia has averaged 15.5 pitches per inning and Burnett 16.6. American League starters are averaging 16.4 pitches per inning this year, so CC’s well short of that while AJ’s just a bit over. In 21 starts, Sabathia has averaged more than 16.4 P/IP just eight times. It’s not a coincidence that those are basically his eight worst and most stressful outings of the year, as he averaged 102.6 pitches thrown and just 5.5 innings in those starts.

As for Burnett, he also experienced eight games this year when he averaged more than 16.4 P/IP, but he’s made one fewer start than Sabathia, In those starts he averaged the same 5.5 innings thrown as CC, but he threw about three more pitches per game (105.38). Again, these were pretty much Burnett’s eight worst outings of the year, and they were his most stressful because he was stretched beyond his normal comfort zone in terms of pitches need to record three outs at a time.

So in both cases, Sabathia and Burnett were truly “abused” eight times each this season. It’s not a perfect analysis, but it shows how many times each pitcher was left in to throw a lot of pitches while not recording many outs, which is the kind of thing you want your starters to avoid. Thankfully, both guys have seen the number of pitches they’ve averaged per inning trend downward (slightly) this season, which you can see in this graph. Hopefully the Yanks don’t pay the price for price for all the work early in the season at an inopportune time later.

Update (1:38pm): Of course Tim Kurkjian posts this today.

Photo Credit: Flcikr user a200eric

B is for Brackman, B is for Bust

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As pro debuts go, Andrew Brackman’s has been far worse than expected. On the season, he is a woeful 1-11 with a 6.72 ERA in 85.2 innings. He has given up four more hits than innings pitched, but more alarming are his walk totals.

Brackman has issued 64 walks this year, and 46 of those have come in his last 35 innings. In six of his last ten starts, he has walked more than he has struck out. Opponents are hitting .277 against him, and the B word — the dreaded bust label — has been swirling for the last few weeks.

When the Yankees drafted Brackman in 2007, they did so knowing that he would be both expensive and injured. He signed a $4.55 million dollar deal with $3.35 million signing bonus and was ranked among the top 100 prospects in the game. He could hit the upper 90s with his fastball and had a plus curve as well as a change up. At six-feet, ten-inches, Brackman was drawing comparisons to the Big Unit.

As the Yankees try to figure out what they have in Brackman, numerous theories are out there. He is but a season removed from Tommy John surgery and has plenty of development time left. He could still turn it around next year or the year after and emerge as an effective, if old, prospect. The problem might very well be our expectations.

No matter the bonus, Brackman was the 30th pick of the first round in 2007, and those picks do not have much of a track record of success. In fact, since 1996, when the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks entered the draft, only two 30th picks have amounted to much. The full list is available here, and I’ll spoil it: Only Noah Lowry and Jack Cust have had any sort of Major League success as 30th picks in the June amateur draft.

Before the expansion of the draft in 1996 and after the initial increase in the draft with the onset of the Marlins and Rockies in 1992, the 28th pick was the last of the first round, and those four picks — Charles Johnson, Jamey Wright, Kevin Witt and Michael Barrett — have been better than most of the 30th picks. Before that, from 1977 through 1991, the 26th pick was the last of the first round. Those were a crap shoot as well. Alan Trammel, Dave Henderson, Rico Brogna and Dan Plesac had long careers, but beyond that, the round is marked by those with brief Major League appearances.

In the end, the problem with Brackman may just be time. He could need some more seasoning to get past his surgery. But the problem could just be one of tempered expectations. As the 30th pick of the draft — holding down the last spot in the first round — he shouldn’t be that good. The money might say otherwise, but history is not on his side.

Trading a Drabek

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Over the next few days, the name Kyle Drabek will surface in many a trade rumor. He is a 21-year-old pitcher, a 2006 first-round selection by the Phillies and the son of former Major Leaguer Doug Drabek. He is a much sought-after prospect and may or may not head to the Blue Jays as part of a package for Roy Halladay. No matter the outcome, though, his name in the press reminds of when another team — the Yankees — traded a 23-year-old Doug Drabek and got back not much in return.

The year was 1986. While the Yankees would put up the best cumulative won-loss record of the decade, any sort of success, post-season or otherwise, would elude them. George Steinbrenner was at his peak. He had no patience for young players and would order his GMs to trade at will. Young players, and pitchers in particular, had no chance of sticking around.

In 1986, the Yanks called up one of their top pitching prospects. A young Doug Drabek would make his Yankee debut on May 30 in relief. He threw 4.1 innings, giving up one run on one hit and three walks, and he recorded four strikes. Over the course of the season, he would appear in 27 games for the Yanks, making 21 starts. He went 7-8 with a 4.10 ERA — and a 100 ERA+ — with 50 walks and 76 strike outs in 131.2 innings. For a young kid with a lively arm, it wasn’t a bad debut.

In November, the Yanks would ship Drabek along with Logan Easley and Brian Fisher to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Pat Clements, Cecilio Guante and Rick Rhoden. Drabek and Rhoden were the centerpieces of the deal. The Yanks felt they were a starting pitcher short of a playoff berth, and Rhoden was supposed to be the key to that berth.

In a way, Rhoden reminds me of Halladay. There are some definite similarities. Before arriving in New York, Rhoden was 121-97 with a 3.48 ERA. Halladay is 142-69 in 12 seasons with a 3.45 ERA. The won-loss records aren’t identical; the ERAs are similar.

After arriving in New York, Rhoden, 33 and one year older than Halladay at the time, would pitch three more season, two in New York. As a Yankee, Rhoden went 28-22 with a 4.09 ERA. The Yanks would not make the playoffs with him around, and Drabek would go on to be a very good pitcher for the next eight years.

Although it’s tempting to draw parallels between Rhoden and Halladay, as I did just a few paragraphs ago, Roy is a much better pitcher than Rick. At the time of the trade, Rhoden’s ERA+ was a 103 while Hallday’s sits at 133. Rhoden struck out 4.8 per 9 IP and had a 1.72 strike out-per-wak ratio. Hallday’s numbers are 6.5 and 3.20 respectively. The comparison is barely valid.

In trading Doug Drabek, the Yankees made a clear mistake, and everyone knew it at the time. Dave Anderson, writing in The Times during Thanksgiving, called out the Yanks for “acquiring an older pitcher more susceptible to arm trouble rather than having the patience to let a younger, sturdier pitcher develop.” That criticism would become more apt after Drabek won his 1990 Cy Young Award. The Yanks sure could have used that.

As 2009 ticks away, the Phillies should probably trade Kyle for Roy Halladay. Doc would hand them the NL while Rick Rhoden wouldn’t have amounted to anything. Still, as the trade deadline approaches, young pitchers will always remain a hot commodity. The Drabeks know this just as well as anyone.

Burnett dominates, bats slug as Yanks trounce Rays

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Last time A.J. Burnett pitched at the Trop he went eight innings on 103 pitches, allowing three hits and walking one while striking out nine Rays. He wasn’t quite that good last night, but he still pitched seven strong, allowing just one unearned run on two hits and two walks. It was just the kind of opening performance the Yankees needed as they attempt to bury the Rays this week. Combined with an offensive outburst it led to an 11-4 Yankees victory.

Despite excellent results, Burnett’s pitch count rose quickly. He faced just four batters in each of the first three innings, and then he faced the minimum in the fourth and fifth before facing four again in the sixth. At that point he had thrown 105 pitches, but with a short bullpen Joe Girardi sent him out there for the seventh inning. Thankfully it was a quick inning, aided by Carlos Pena’s first-pitch groundout to short.

Was it concerning that Girardi sent out Burnett for the seventh with over 100 pitches? A bit, but considering the circumstances it wasn’t the worst move. It’s the end of July, so he’s used to the work load. He’s a vet who has racked up pitch counts before. The game was inside, so there were no concerns about the conditions. With Coke and Hughes unavailable, it’s understandable why Girardi wanted to get seven out of his starter.

On the other hand, it’s always an oddity these days to see a manager let a pitcher with over 100 pitches start a new inning. Maybe it’s just our modern bias towards the 100-pitch milestone, and it’s not really that big a deal at all. But for someone with Burnett’s injury history, it’s hard not to be concerned. It’s probably no big deal, but it’s tough to ignore, again, because of our modern biases.

High pitch count or not, Burnett was on his game last night. He allowed just five base runners through seven innings, one of whom, B.J. Upton, reached on a dropped third strike, and another of whom was erased by a double play. It’s yet another in A.J.’s recent string of excellent starts. He’s certainly among the Yankees players of the month in July. He’s got my vote, even over Hughes.

The offense wasted little time in staking Burnett to a lead. James Shields looked to be on his game in the first, but the Yanks pounced in the second. It took them two pitches to rack up two hits and a run. Hideki struck first with a single, and then scored all the way from first on a Jorge Posada gapper. As if Hideki’s 270-foot sprint wasn’t bizarre enough, Robinson Cano got ahead in the count 3-0 in the next at bat. He then whaled a 3-1 pitch all the way to the wall. It looked as if Gabe Gross would catch it at the front of the warning track, but the ball ended up sailing a bit further, bouncing off the top of the wall. Posada scored and Cano moved into third, to score on a ground out. The Yanks had an early 3-0 lead.

Subsequent innings of silence are always golden when you have a lead, and that’s what the next few were for the Yankees. Then they struck again in the sixth. Robinson Cano, who walked in the fourth, took the first pitch he saw to dead center for the Yanks’ fourth run. Nick Swisher would follow up two pitches later with a moon shot to right. It was his third homer at the Trop this season. He’d later add his fourth as an insurance run.

The Yankees offensive night speaks for itself: 11 runs, 15 hits, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 4 homers, 7 walks. A-Rod doubled in two insurance runs on his birthday, though given how Albaladejo pitched in the eighth, those runs provided some security. Also, congratulations to Johnny Damon on hitting his 200th career home run, a three-run blast in the ninth. Of those 200 career jacks, Damon has hit 70 with the Yankees in the three-plus years he’s been with the club. That’s already 14 more than he hit with Boston and five more than he hit with KC.

As mentioned, things got a bit shaky with Alabaladejo in the eighth. After opening the inning with a strikeout, he walked Jason Bartlett and then let up a double to B.J. Upton. Following a Carl Crawford sac fly, he hit Evan Longoria in the elbow, then gave up a single to Ben Zobrist. That was enough for Girardi. In came David Robertson in what was technically a save situation, with Pat Burrell standing in the on-deck circle as the tying run. Robertson got Pena swinging to end the threat. The Yanks would then add on their insurance, and Robertson finished off the Rays in the ninth after allowing a leadoff homer to Pat the Bat.

The loss puts Tampa Bay 7.5 games out of the division, with Scott Kazmir on tap to try and staunch the bleeding. The Yanks will counter with their ace, CC Sabathia. Another Yanks win could be devastating to the Rays. It would push them 8.5 games out of the division, with the possibility of a sweep looming. Even with the struggling Kazmir on the mound, do not take the Rays lightly tomorrow. They know what’s at stake.

Charleston fails to pick up a hit

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DJ Mitchell was named Florida State League Pitcher of the Week, while Cory Arbiso and Corban Joseph took home Pitcher and Hitter of the Week honors for the South Atlantic League.

Nice little piece about Austin Jackson, make sure you give it a read.

Triple-A Scranton (4-0 win over Toledo)
Kevin Russo: 3 for 4, 3 R, 3 2B, 1 HBP – 14 for his last 29 (.483)
Ramiro Pena: 2 for 3, 2 2B, 1 RBI
Austin Jackson: 2 for 5, 1 2B, 1 RBI – just his second multi-hit game since the All Star break
Shelley Duncan: 1 for 3, 2 BB – 6 for his last 36 (.167), and four of those hits came in one game
Juan Miranda, Chris Stewart & John Rodriguez: all 0 for 4 – Miranda drove in a run … Stewart scored a run & K’ed twice … J-Rod K’ed in his first game off the DL
Yurendell DeCaster & Colin Curtis: both 1 for 4, 1 K
Zach Kroenke: 4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2-4 GB/FB – 37 of 59 pitches were strikes (62.8%) … picked two runners off first … that’s a helluva spot start
Eric Wordekemper: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 5-5 GB/FB – 30 of 43 pitches were strikes (69.8%) … just up from AA because Jason Johnson is back on the DL
Kevin Whelan: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 2-1 GB/FB – 11 of 16 pitches were strikes (68.8%)

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